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No-Failure Design and Disaster Recovery: Lessons from Fukushima

One of the striking aspects of the early stages of the nuclear accident at Fukushima-Daiichi last March was the nearly total absence of disaster recovery capability. For instance, while Japan is a super-power of robotic technology, the nuclear authorities had to import robots from France for probing the damaged nuclear plants. Fukushima can teach us an important lesson about technology.

The failure of critical technologies can be disastrous. The crash of a civilian airliner can cause hundreds of deaths. The meltdown of a nuclear reactor can release highly toxic isotopes. Failure of flood protection systems can result in vast death and damage. Society therefore insists that critical technologies be designed, operated and maintained to extremely high levels of reliability. We benefit from technology, but we also insist that the designers and operators "do their best" to protect us from their dangers.

Industries and government agencies who provide critical technologies almost invariably act in good faith for a range of reasons. Morality dictates responsible behavior, liability legislation establishes sanctions for irresponsible behavior, and economic or political self-interest makes continuous safe operation desirable.

The language of performance-optimization  not only doing our best, but also achieving the best  may tend to undermine the successful management of technological danger. A probability of severe failure of one in a million per device per year is exceedingly  and very reassuringly  small. When we honestly believe that we have designed and implemented a technology to have vanishingly small probability of catastrophe, we can honestly ignore the need for disaster recovery.

Or can we?

Let's contrast this with an ethos that is consistent with a thorough awareness of the potential for adverse surprise. We now acknowledge that our predictions are uncertain, perhaps highly uncertain on some specific points. We attempt to achieve very demanding outcomes  for instance vanishingly small probabilities of catastrophe  but we recognize that our ability to reliably calculate such small probabilities is compromised by the deficiency of our knowledge and understanding. We robustify ourselves against those deficiencies by choosing a design which would be acceptable over a wide range of deviations from our current best understanding. (This is called "robust-satisficing".) Not only does "vanishingly small probability of failure" still entail the possibility of failure, but our predictions of that probability may err.

Acknowledging the need for disaster recovery capability (DRC) is awkward and uncomfortable for designers and advocates of a technology. We would much rather believe that DRC is not needed, that we have in fact made catastrophe negligible. But let's not conflate good-faith attempts to deal with complex uncertainties, with guaranteed outcomes based on full knowledge. Our best models are in part wrong, so we robustify against the designer's bounded rationality. But robustness cannot guarantee success. The design and implementation of DRC is a necessary part of the design of any critical technology, and is consistent with the strategy of robust satisficing.

One final point: moral hazard and its dilemma. The design of any critical technology entails two distinct and essential elements: failure prevention and disaster recovery. What economists call a `moral hazard' exists since the failure prevention team might rely on the disaster-recovery team, and vice versa. Each team might, at least implicitly, depend on the capabilities of the other team, and thereby relinquish some of its own responsibility. Institutional provisions are needed to manage this conflict.

The alleviation of this moral hazard entails a dilemma. Considerations of failure prevention and disaster recovery must be combined in the design process. The design teams must be aware of each other, and even collaborate, because a single coherent system must emerge. But we don't want either team to relinquish any responsibility. On the one hand we want the failure prevention team to work as though there is no disaster recovery, and the disaster recovery team should presume that failures will occur. On the other hand, we want these teams to collaborate on the design.

This moral hazard and its dilemma do not obviate the need for both elements of the design. Fukushima has taught us an important lesson by highlighting the special challenge of high-risk critical technologies: design so failure cannot occur, and prepare to respond to the unanticipated.




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Accidental Education


"He had to take that life as he best could, 
with such accidental education as luck had given him". 

I am a university professor. Universities facilitate efficient and systematic learning, so I teach classes, design courses, and develop curricula. Universities have tremendously benefitted technology, the economy, health, cultural richness and awareness, and many other "goods".

Nonetheless, some important lessons are learned strictly by accident. Moreover, without accidental surprises, education would be a bit dry, sometimes even sterile. As Adams wrote: "The chief wonder of education is that it does not ruin everybody concerned in it, teachers and taught."

An example. I chose my undergraduate college because of their program in anthropology. When I got there I took a chemistry course in my first semester. I was enchanted, by the prof as much as by the subject. I majored in chemistry and never went near the anthro department. If that prof had been on sabbatical I might have ended up an anthropologist.

Universities promote lifelong learning. College is little more than a six-pack of knowledge, a smattering of understanding and a wisp of wisdom. But lifelong learning doesn't only mean "come back to grad school". It means perceiving those rarities and strangenesses that others don't notice. Apples must have fallen on lots of peoples' heads before some clever fellow said "Hmmm, what's going on here?".

Accidental education is much more than keeping your eyes and mind open (though that is essential). To understand the deepest importance of accidental education we need to enlist two concepts: the boundlessness of the unknown, and human free will. We will then understand that accidental education feeds the potential for uniqueness of the individual.

As we have explained elsewhere, in discussing grand unified theories and imagination, the unknown is richer and stranger - and more contradictory - than the single physical reality that we actually face. The unknown is the realm of all possible as well as impossible worlds. It is the domain in which our dreams and speculations wander. It may be frightening or heartening, but taken as a whole it is incoherent, contradictory and endlessly amazing, variable and stimulating.

We learn about the unknown in part by speculating, wondering, and dreaming (awake and asleep). Imagining the impossible is very educational. For instance, most things are impossible for children (from tying their shoes to running the country), but they must be encouraged to imagine that they can or will be able to do them. Adults also can re-make themselves in line with their dreams. We are free and able to imagine ourselves and the world in endless new and different ways. Newton's apple brought to his mind a picture of the universe unlike any that had been imagined before. Surprises, like dreams, can free us from the mundane. Cynics sometimes sneer at personal or collective myths and musings, but the ability to re-invent ourselves is the essence of humanity. The children of Israel imagined at Sinai that the covenant was given directly to them all - men, women and children equally - with no royal or priestly intermediary. This launched the concept and the possibility of political equality.

The Israelites had no map of the desert because the promised land that they sought was first of all an idea. Only after re-inventing themselves as a free people created equal in the image of God, and not slaves, only after finding a collective identity and mission, only then could they enter the land of Canaan. Theirs wanderings were random and their discoveries were accidental, but their formative value is with us to this day. No map or curriculum can organize one's wandering in the land of imagination. Unexpected events happen in the real world, but they stimulate our imagination of the infinity of other possible worlds. Our most important education is the accidental stumbling on new thoughts that feed our potential for innovation and uniqueness. For the receptive mind, accidental education can be the most sublime.





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New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More

The June 2020 issue of History of Psychiatry is now online. Full details follow below: “Wild melancholy. On the historical plausibility of a black bile theory of blood madness, or hæmatomania,” Jan Verplaetse. Abstract: Nineteenth-century art historian John Addington Symonds coined the term hæmatomania (blood madness) for the extremely bloodthirsty behaviour of a number of … Continue reading New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More




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Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More

A number of articles now in press at the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences will be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Uncovering the metaphysics of psychological warfare: The social science behind the Psychological Strategy Board’s operations planning, 1951–1953,” Gabrielle Kemmis. Abstract: In April 1951 president Harry S. Truman established … Continue reading Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More




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Forthcoming HOPOS Special Issue on Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie

Two pieces forthcoming in a special issue of HOPOS, the official journal of the International Society for the History of Philosophy of Science, will be of interest to AHP readers. The special issue, “Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie—in the Contexts of Historicism, Relativism, and Naturalism,” is guest-edited by Christian Damböck, Uljana Feest, and Martin Kusch. Full details … Continue reading Forthcoming HOPOS Special Issue on Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie




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The Best Material For A Homemade COVID-19 Mask

The best type of fabric for a breathable but effective COVID-19 mask.

Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

→ Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:




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A devious little marketing nudge

Courtesy of computer security provider Lavasoft (spotted by a sharp behavioral graduate student at Booth). Yes, you can click the grayed-out button on the left and “update” to the free software.  




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Where is behavioral economics headed in the world of marketing?

The Nudge blog sat down (electronically) with John Kenny, Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning in Draftfcb’s Chicago office, to explore whether behavioral economics is just a fad in marketing or a legitimate tool to help the industry perform better. Starting with the Institute of Decision Making, Draftfcb has been one of the leaders in [...]




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The Paradox of Online Dating: Too Many Options Makes It Harder to Invest in a Relationship

In any relationship, you’re bound to discover that your partner has one or two (or maybe ten or twenty) quirks that eventually come to annoy you. In these situations, it's tempting to think that you might be happier with someone else—someone who doesn’t have the same set of peccadillos. However, according to behavioral economist Dr. Dan Ariely, this kind of thinking can set you up for a lifetime of disappointment.




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The History of the Clitoris (Video)

The clitoris is an organ that has been wildly misunderstood and mischaracterized for most of human history. The last three decades have dramatically changed the way that scientists think and talk about the clitoris; however, many myths and misconceptions remain.




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Why The Pandemic is Making Some People Horny--But Turning Others Off

There are a lot of conflicting media reports out right now about how the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is affecting people’s sex drives. Some are saying that all of the stress and anxiety is putting a damper on desire, while others are saying that everyone is super horny. So which is it? Truth be told, it’s probably a bit of both.




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How Do You Help a Partner Who is Depressed? Advice From a Sex Therapist

Depression is one of the most common mental health issues in the United States. In fact, according to the National Institutes of Mental Health, 1 in 14 Americans experienced an episode of major depression in the last year alone. Given the circumstances surrounding the current COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, many in the mental health community predict that the number will be even higher this year because these circumstances are creating a “perfect storm” of depression risks. The widespread prevalence of depression has a lot of implications for our lives, even if we don’t personally have depression ourselves. Many of us will have loved ones, such as a romantic partner, who develops depression at some point. In these situations, it’s common for people to wonder how they can help their partner most effectively. So what should they do?




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I’m a Cisgender Woman and My Husband Watches Trans Porn: Does That Mean He’s Not Into Me?

A reader submitted the following question: “I recently discovered that my husband is attracted to transsexuals (MTF - non op). This is the only type of porn that he looks at. He also role plays online with men for sexual play and chat. I discovered this after I started snooping because I had some red flags. He is very embarrassed and uncomfortable discussing it. He has apologized for the online chatting (as we had agreed this was out of bounds for our relationship). He says he likes them because they are feminine but his primary attraction is to women (with female parts). However, I just am not sure I believe him. I am terrified that when we are intimate (which I have to pretty much beg for), he can only do it when its dark and I am fearful he is fantasizing that I have a penis. This bothers me deeply on a number of different levels. Are there men who are only interested in transsexuals? Is it possible he is no longer turned on by my female genitalia?” There’s a lot to unpack in this question, but let’s start here: over the years, I’ve received several emails from women describing similar stories and concerns, so you’re not alone in feeling the way that you do.



  • Sex Question Friday
  • Sexual Problems and Solutions

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Have You Reached Out to or Heard From an Ex During the Pandemic? You're Not Alone

Anecdotally, I’ve heard from a lot of people who have said that they reached out to (or heard from) and ex-partner since the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic began. But just how many people have done so? And what motivated them to reconnect? Some of my colleagues and I at The Kinsey Institute are currently in the midst of researching how this pandemic is affecting people’s intimate lives (click here if you’d like to participate and learn more about the study), and our preliminary data suggest that reaching out to an ex isn’t a rare occurrence.




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The gender-fluid history of the Philippines | France Villarta

In much of the world, gender is viewed as binary: man or woman, each assigned characteristics and traits designated by biological sex. But that's not the case everywhere, says France Villarta. In a talk that's part cultural love letter, part history lesson, he details the legacy of gender fluidity and inclusivity in his native Philippines -- and emphasizes the universal beauty of all people, regardless of society's labels.




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Why it's so hard to talk about the N-word | Elizabeth Stordeur Pryor

Historian Elizabeth Stordeur Pryor leads a thoughtful and history-backed examination of one of the most divisive words in the English language: the N-word. Drawing from personal experience, she explains how reflecting on our points of encounter with the word can help promote productive discussions and, ultimately, create a framework that reshapes education around the complicated history of racism in the US.




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How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

As the threat of COVID-19 continues, infectious disease expert and TED Fellow Adam Kucharski answers five key questions about the novel coronavirus, providing necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what might need to change about our social behavior to end the pandemic. (This video is excerpted from a 70-minute interview between Kucharski and head of TED Chris Anderson. Listen to the full interview at http://go.ted.com/adamkucharski. Recorded March 11, 2020)




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Go ahead, dream about the future | Charlie Jane Anders

"You don't predict the future -- you imagine the future," says sci-fi writer Charlie Jane Anders. In a talk that's part dream, part research-based extrapolation, she takes us on a wild, speculative tour of the delights and challenges the future may hold -- and shows how dreaming up weird, futuristic possibilities empowers us to construct a better tomorrow.




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A camera that can see around corners | David Lindell

To work safely, self-driving cars must avoid obstacles -- including those just out of sight. And for this to happen, we need technology that sees better than humans can, says electrical engineer David Lindell. Buckle up for a quick, groundbreaking tech demo as Lindell explains the significant and versatile potential of a high-speed camera that can detect objects hidden around corners.




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How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic | Bill Gates

Philanthropist and Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates offers insights into the COVID-19 pandemic, discussing why testing and self-isolation are essential, which medical advancements show promise and what it will take for the world to endure this crisis. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded March 24, 2020)




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How we can navigate the coronavirus pandemic with courage and hope | Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks

Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks offers thoughts on how we can navigate the coronavirus pandemic with courage, hope and empathy. With wisdom and clarity, he speaks on leadership, fear, death, hope and how we could use this moment to build a more just world. Watch for a special, impromptu prayer about halfway through the conversation. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and head of curation Helen Walters. Recorded March 30, 2020)




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How to make pandemics optional, not inevitable | Sonia Shah

What can past pandemics teach us how to tackle the current one? Tracing the history of contagions from cholera to Ebola and beyond, science journalist Sonia Shah explains why we're more vulnerable to outbreaks now than ever before, what we can do to minimize the spread of coronavirus and how to prevent future pandemics. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by science curator David Biello and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded March 31, 2020)




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An ethical plan for ending the pandemic and restarting the economy | Danielle Allen

As COVID-19 continues to spread, the world is facing two existential threats at once: a public health emergency and an economic crisis. Political theorist Danielle Allen describes how we can ethically and democratically address both problems by scaling up "smart testing," which would track positive cases with peer-to-peer software on people's cell phones -- so we can end the pandemic and get back to work. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and business curator Corey Hajim. Recorded April 6, 2020)




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How health workers are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic | Esther Choo

The coronavirus pandemic is unlike anything we've ever seen in health care, says emergency physician Esther Choo. Sharing insights into how health workers are responding to the outbreak, she explains what makes this public health emergency different from others -- and provides a few simple things you can do to help. Watch to the end to hear about Choo's work deploying mobile ICUs across the United States as hospitals start to reach capacity. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers and head of curation Helen Walters. Recorded April 7, 2020)




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How understanding divorce can help your marriage | Jeannie Suk Gersen

To understand what makes marriages work, we need to talk about why they sometimes end, says family law professor Jeannie Suk Gersen. Follow along as she lays out three ways that thinking about marital decisions through the lens of divorce can help you better navigate togetherness from the beginning.




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A global hackathon to take on the coronavirus pandemic | Marko Russiver

Looking to put your skills to use to fight the pandemic? Consider joining The Global Hack, a virtual hackathon designed to rapidly develop solutions to the coronavirus crisis. Designer and technologist Marko Russiver shares the motivation behind a movement looking to help people build post-pandemic resilience. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of curation Helen Walters. Recorded April 8, 2020)




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How the coronavirus is impacting India -- and what needs to happen next | Gayathri Vasudevan

The coronavirus pandemic put India's population of 1.3 billion into an extreme and sudden lockdown. Social entrepreneur Gayathri Vasudevan explains how the situation is impacting the country's migrant workers, who are stuck far from home with limited access to food and shelter, and calls for an overhaul of India's social infrastructure in order to get people the essentials they need right now. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded April 9, 2020)




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How the coronavirus pandemic is changing the world | Fareed Zakaria

The coronavirus pandemic is more global, dramatic and unusual than any crisis we've seen in a long time, says journalist Fareed Zakaria. Listen as he shares his perspective on how we can recover from the economic fallout, why certain countries were able to avoid major outbreaks and what this might mean for the balance of global power. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded April 9, 2020)




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The wonders of the molecular world, animated | Janet Iwasa

Some biological structures are so small that scientists can't see them with even the most powerful microscopes. That's where molecular animator and TED Fellow Janet Iwasa gets creative. Explore vast, unseen molecular worlds as she shares mesmerizing animations that imagine how they might work.




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An ode to living on Earth | Oliver Jeffers

If you had to explain to a newborn what it means to be a human being living on Earth in the 21st century, what would you say? Visual artist Oliver Jeffers put his answer in a letter to his son, sharing pearls of wisdom on existence and the diversity of life. He offers observations of the "beautiful, fragile drama of human civilization" in this poetic talk paired with his original illustrations and animations.




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A global pandemic calls for global solutions | Larry Brilliant

Examining the facts and figures of the coronavirus outbreak, epidemiologist Larry Brilliant evaluates the global response in a candid interview with head of TED Chris Anderson. Brilliant lays out a clear plan to end the pandemic -- and shows why, to achieve it, we'll have to work together across political and geographical divides. "This is not the zombie apocalypse; this is not a mass extinction event," he says. "We need to be the best version of ourselves." (Recorded April 22, 2020)




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How face surveillance threatens your privacy and freedom | Kade Crockford

Privacy isn't dead, but face surveillance technology might kill it, says civil rights advocate Kade Crockford. In an eye-opening talk, Kade outlines the startling reasons why this invasive technology -- powered by often-flawed facial recognition databases that track people without their knowledge -- poses unprecedented threats to your fundamental rights. Learn what can be done to ban government use before it's too late.




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4th Consumer Financial Protection Bureau research conference on consumer finance, Dec 12-13, 2019

SUBMISSION DEADLINE: SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 What: 4th CFPB Research Conference on Consumer Finance When: December 12th-13th, 2019 Where: Catholic University in Washington, DC In December 2019, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will host its fourth research conference on consumer finance at Catholic University in Washington, DC. Information on prior conferences can be found here: […]

The post 4th Consumer Financial Protection Bureau research conference on consumer finance, Dec 12-13, 2019 appeared first on Decision Science News.




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Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM), Barcelona, June 16-18, 2020

SAVE THE DATE ESADE Business School will host the 2020 Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM) conference, in Barcelona, Spain. Dates: Tuesday June 16th – Thursday June 18th, 2020. More information coming, September of 2019. Faculty Organizers Uri Simonsohn (ESADE) Isabelle Engeler (IESE) Jordi Quoidbach (ESADE) Bart de Langhe (ESADE) Johannes Müller-Trede (IESE) Ioannis Evangelidis […]

The post Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM), Barcelona, June 16-18, 2020 appeared first on Decision Science News.




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Professorship in decision making at Wharton, Operations, Information and Decisions (OID), University of Pennsylvania

APPLICATION DEADLINE OCTOBER 15, 2019 The Operations, Information and Decisions Department at the Wharton School is seeking applicants for a full-time, tenure track, Assistant Professor faculty position in the area of decision-making. Our decision-making faculty is comprised of scholars with a diverse set of backgrounds and interests, and we encourage applicants with degrees in economics, […]

The post Professorship in decision making at Wharton, Operations, Information and Decisions (OID), University of Pennsylvania appeared first on Decision Science News.




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How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results

STANDARD ERRORS VS STANDARD DEVIATIONS Click to enlarge There’s an ancient haiku that goes: People confuse a well-estimated mean with a certain outcome Ok, that’s not true. But Jake Hofman, Dan Goldstein, and Jessica Hullman have a new paper (recently accepted at CHI 2020) about this. They bet you’ll think the results of their paper […]

The post How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results appeared first on Decision Science News.




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Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN), Philadelphia, June 5-6, 2020

DEADLINE FOR ORAL PRESENTATIONS: FEB 15, 2020 On June 5-6 2020, Temple University will host the 10th Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN) in Philadelphia, PA. This symposium is unique in that it brings together a range of constituencies involved in the use of neuroscience techniques to understand consumer decision making – world renowned […]

The post Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN), Philadelphia, June 5-6, 2020 appeared first on Decision Science News.













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Talking Across Divides And Quashing Conspiracy Theories: The Week’s Best Psychology Links

Our weekly round-up of the best psychology coverage from elsewhere on the web




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How Do Films Like ‘Joker’ Shape Attitudes Towards People With Mental Health Issues?

By Emily Reynolds. Study finds viewers had slightly more negative perceptions of people with mental illness after seeing the movie.




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AFT President Endorses Warren: 'It Would Be Great to Send a Teacher to the White House'

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten endorsed Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign Saturday, acting in her personal capacity.