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Dynamics of Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats to Post-Soviet Russia

Simon Saradzhyan was invited to publicly brief the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee addressing the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The consensus study is a congressionally mandated analysis included in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1299I) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy).  Nearly 60 stakeholders concerned about this topic from the Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, State Department, National Security Council, US Congress, the National Labs, and many non-governmental organizations were in attendance. The briefings are available at the NAS event website. Video of the presentation can be found here.




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Salata Institute Launches Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions

The Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University launched today a major research and outreach initiative to reduce global methane emissions. The initiative seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with government policymakers and with key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions.




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Harvard Project Contributes to Major Initiative on Methane

The Harvard Project participates in a major Harvard initiative aimed at reducing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Participating researchers represent a range of academic disciplines and Harvard schools.




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After Backlash, Harvard Professor Holds Tense Conversation on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Tarek Masoud, who questioned Iriqat’s views of Oct. 7 and how a two-state solution could be achieved during the event, said in an interview later on Thursday that he was “reasonably confident and hopeful” the discussion was an opportunity for learning, and added he appreciated that Iriqat “did not deny the atrocities of Oct. 7.” Understanding the Palestinian perspective is critical for moving toward peace and a two-state solution, Masoud said. Masoud and Iriqat agreed to discuss her controversial social media posts during the dialogue. Iriqat said that she did not intend to justify the violence on Oct. 7, which included kidnappings of children and elderly, beheadings, and massacres of civilians, but meant to place the attack in the context of a decades-long conflict. She was intensely critical of Israel throughout the conversation, saying the “settler-colonial project started 76 years ago.”




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Who Supports Gender Quotas in Transitioning and Authoritarian States in the Middle East and North Africa?

What are the drivers of citizens’ support for electoral gender quotas in transitioning and authoritarian states? Despite extensive research examining public support for women in politics in democracies, we know little about how the public perceives them in less democratic settings. To address this shortcoming, we use original survey data from authoritarian Morocco and transitioning Tunisia – two Arab countries hailed for their progressive gender policies. We argue that in these countries where citizens lack political information, they instead rely on their assessment of the government’s performance to form attitudes toward gender quotas. Furthermore, electoral legitimacy plays an important role in shaping citizens’ support for quotas, which are closely linked to how elections and legislatures operate. The findings offer strong support for our theoretical expectations and uncover important gender differences.




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Amb. Djerejian Analyzes Sen. Schumer's Comments on Netanyahu

MEI Senior Fellow Edward Djerejian discusses Sen. Schumer’s call for Israeli elections, what a ground operation in Rafah could mean for US policy, and whether a two-state solution is still viable on ABC News Live.




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Why Militaries Support Presidential Coups

If you want to understand why generals support a presidential power grab, then you need to understand the logic that motivates them. Why they leave the barracks — and what we must do to get them to stand down.  




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Kuwait’s Suspended Parliament: Where Does the Public Stand?

MEI Fellow Yuree Noh assesses public opinion in Kuwait following the suspension of its parliament.




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Tunisia Abandons Two-State Solution; Courts Iran, China, and Russia

The war in Gaza has accelerated a major shift in Tunisia’s foreign policy. One of the first Arab countries to advocate for a two-state solution, Tunisia has now abandoned it. That shift has left Tunisia more isolated geopolitically, prompting it to now court Iran, China, and Russia.




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From the Frontlines to the Future: Assessing Emerging Technology in Russia's Invasion Strategy and NATO's Next Moves

This piece is a series in the Defense, Emerging Technology, and Strategy (DETS) Program’s analysis on the war in Ukraine, including a corresponding policy brief on Ukraine’s Battlefield Technologies and Lessons for the U.S. published in July 2023. 




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Let’s Not Make the Same Mistakes with AI That We Made with Social Media

Social media’s unregulated evolution over the past decade holds a lot of lessons that apply directly to AI companies and technologies.




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Trump wins US presidential election




















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Cop: Negotiators agree on carbon credit standards











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Russia is Learning that Countries that live in Gas Houses Shouldn’t Throw Drones

Bystander video feeds show scenes of fire and destruction, flames engulfing pipelines and smoke billowing from oil tank farms. In one clip, a twin-tailed aircraft flies slowly over a burning refinery. It loiters, banks, and then plunges precisely into the top of a tall, hydrocarbon filled distillation tower followed by explosions and more fire.

Kyiv is turning the tables on Russia by striking at its hydrocarbon lifeblood. Ukraine’s justified and effective homegrown response to Putin’s two-year campaign of attacks on the nation’s energy infrastructure shows Russia that what goes around comes around.




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Nobody Actually Knows What Russia Does Next

Stephen Walt argues that because no one knows what Putin might do, NATO's European members should increase their defense capabilities and correct any obvious vulnerabilities. At the same time, however, the United States and its NATO allies should acknowledge Russia's legitimate security concerns and consider what they can do to allay them.




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Polls Show Record Low Number of Russians Willing to Permanently Move Abroad

The share of Russians who would like to leave Russia for permanent residence in another country has reached a record low, according to the results of a national poll conducted by Russia’s Levada Center on March 21-27, 2024.  Of the countries Russians were eager to relocate to, the U.S. topped the list (11%), followed by Germany (8%) and Italy and Turkey (6% each). China ranked 10-11 along with Canada.That seven out of the top 11 countries Russians would like to relocate to are members of the collective West, with 46% interested in moving to these countries, also shows the limits of the Kremlin’s efforts to instill anti-Western sentiments in the Russian public.




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Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators' Genesis Period

Only a small handful of people in the world have sat at the negotiating table with the North Koreans and extensively interacted with them. Yet, this knowledge is fragmented and has not been collected or analyzed in a systematic manner. This report captures the findings from in-depth, one-on-one interviews with former senior negotiators from the United States and South Korea, who gained unique knowledge about North Korean negotiating behavior by dealing directly with their high-level North Korean counterparts. 

These negotiators collectively represent a body of negotiation experience and expertise starting from the early 1990s to late 2019, when North Korea ceased all negotiations with the United States. During that time, the conditions for productive negotiation changed dramatically – indeed, the conditions for the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework negotiations were much more favorable than during the Six-Party Talks of the mid-2000s or the Season of Summits during 2018-2019. For the “Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators’ Genesis Period” project, a spotlight was placed on former senior negotiators’ early-stage experience preparing for and engaging in negotiations with the North Koreans. In doing so, tacit knowledge was captured to serve as a resource for future negotiators to inform and accelerate their own genesis period.




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The Protest to Parliament Pipeline

In the lead up to the October 2021 federal elections, the streets of Baghdad were lined with posters of female candidates. Some were familiar faces with clear political baggage and history, like Sara Iyad Allawi, the daughter of Iraq’s former prime minister. Others were former members of parliament from entrenched political parties. What drew the most excitement from observers, however, were the campaigns of civil activists who had participated in the October protest movement. Locally known as the “Tishreen Movement”, the October protest movement was the largest sustained protest movement in post-2003 Iraq’s history, which took place between October 2019 and February 2020 and involved the participation of hundreds of thousands across multiple cities. The protest movement succeeded in pushing for a new electoral law and in holding early elections, though the elections were only six months ahead of the traditional schedule by the time they were organized. These women represented a new type of female candidate, one without ties to the entrenched elite and who represented. Iraq’s youthful society. Their participation, like the protest movement itself, heralded to many a new era of Iraqi politics, one where younger women were confident enough to run for office and who relied on grassroots campaigning and social media.




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Should the West Engage with Russia on Science and Conversation While the War in Ukraine Continues?

Confronted by the accelerating climate crisis, Western governments, NGOs, and academia are grappling with a difficult question: Should the West engage with Russia on science and conservation, at a time when Russia is waging an unjust and violent war on a sovereign nation?

This study group, led by Arctic Initiative Senior Fellow Margaret Williams, is evaluating the costs and benefits of renewing cooperation with Russia on science and conservation issues.




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Uptick in Russian-African Diplomacy Moscow’s Evolving Geopolitical Plans

A spate of high-level diplomatic gatherings demonstrates that the Russian leadership remains keen to implement a strategy of expansion, rather than merely sustainment, of its relations with the rising Africa.




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Making a Case for Investing in Nature: An Interview with Lydia Zemke

As a Predoctoral Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Environment and Natural Resources Program and Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, Lydia Zemke has spent the last two years studying climate finance in developing countries. As she rounds out her time at the Belfer Center, Zemke she reflects on her research interests, her experience conducting fieldwork in Kenya and Costa Rica, and her advice for other early-career researchers. 




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Setting a Course for Arctic Research: Arctic Initiative at Arctic Science Summit Week 2024

The Arctic Initiative team helped kick off discussions for the International Conference on Arctic Research Planning Process 2022-2026 (ICARP IV) research priority teams at the Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW) 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. 




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Arctic Initiative Highlights from Arctic Encounter Symposium 2024

From climate science to healthcare to waste management, read on for key takeaways from our team’s activities at Arctic Encounter Symposium 2024 in Anchorage, Alaska.




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Mapping a Path Forward for Arctic Cooperation with Russia: A Biodiversity Case Study

For most of this century, the Arctic has been a place of peaceful cooperation in science and environmental protection, an approach built on a foundation of multiple agreements reached in the twentieth century. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical reverberations of the war have disrupted or outright halted most collaboration between Western and Russian scientists and conservationists.




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Global Players: The Role of International Humanitarian Organizations in Africa

On April 2, the study group met for the second time to evaluate the role of international humanitarian groups in shaping political and social outcomes in Africa. The group examined how these organizations deal with emergencies, crises, and conflict situations across the continent, and scrutinized their influence on policy decisions and discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of their involvement. Discussions covered the expanding influence of organizations like the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), and the International Rescue Committee (ICR). The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest Professor Sabs K. Quereshi, a senior-level leader with 17+ years of experience in global health, gender equality, health policy and equity, national security, humanitarian response, and government and multilateral affairs sectors in the U.S., with the UN, and worldwide.




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Challenging Biases and Assumptions in Analysis: Could Israel Have Averted Intelligence Failure?

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond. 




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Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

David Kearn argues that the idea that the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 would be by the United States in the defense of Taiwan against a conventional Chinese invasion would have significant, negative, and long-lasting, diplomatic ramifications. It is difficult to fathom the myriad potential consequences, but U.S. nuclear weapon use would almost certainly shatter the non-proliferation regime as a functioning entity, incentivize states (including China) to acquire or improve their existing nuclear arsenal, and damage America's standing globally.