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US job losses have reached Great Depression levels. Did it have to be that way?

The US and Europe have taken different approaches to tackling pandemic-induced unemployment but which is best long term?

In two, terrible, months the coronavirus pandemic has driven unemployment in the US to levels unseen since the 1930s Great Depression. Did it have to be this way?

Covid-19 has cost more than 33 million Americans their jobs in the last seven weeks – 10% of the entire US population. The official unemployment rate had shot up from 4.4% to 14.7% on Friday – a figure that probably wildly underestimates the true scale of job losses.

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Eurozone downturn and US jobless surge hit markets - as it happened

The euro area is suffering its worst contraction ever, as the French economy suffers its biggest plunge since the second world war

Time for a recap...

A fresh flurry of grim economic data has confirmed that the global economy is falling into its worst contraction in decades, giving markets a jolt.

April was a good month for Europe’s stock markets, despite a late wobble today.

The Stoxx 600 index gained 6.2% this month, its best monthly gain since October 2015 (after the Greek debt crisis finally eased). Germany’s DAX gained over 9% this month.

Britain’s FTSE 100 has just posted its worst day in a month, at the end of its best month in two years.

The blue-chip index has closed down 214 points at 5901, a drop of 3.5%. That wipes out yesterday’s rally, and half of Wednesday’s gains too!

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

Shares in Zoom have dropped over 6% today, after the video-conferencing services admitted it wasn’t quite as popular as thought...

Zoom had initially said it had 300 million daily users, following the surge in remote working. But, it actually has 300 million daily meeting participants.

Zoom shares dropped more than 7% after the company walked back on claims it has 300 million daily active users. $ZM actually reached 300m daily participants, the difference being that meeting participants can be counted more than once.https://t.co/UIVYBP9sqt

Despite today’s declines, April has still been a very strong month for the markets.

America’s S&P 500 index has gained almost 13%, trimming its losses for the year to 9%.

The S&P 500 is lower today, but still on pace for its best month in decades

Follow the latest updates > https://t.co/WLOc9YlsXU@naterattner @foimbert @mkmfitzgerald pic.twitter.com/wft4YvkJ9p

The US jobs report for April is released a week tomorrow. But we already know it will be grim, thanks to the weekly initial jobs claims numbers.

Capital Economists estimate that America’s unemployment rate has surged to at least 15% this month, wiping out twice as many jobs as were created over the last decade.

We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%.

That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a single month, equating to more than double the total decline in employment during and after the financial crisis.

Crumbs, the FTSE 100 has now lost 200 points for the day, a loss of over 3%.... Still 30 minutes of trading in which to recover (or get worse).

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to hurt the travel sector badly too.

TUI has cancelled holiday trips due to start on or before June 11, meaning disappointment for one million hopeful holidaymakers.

Related: Tui cancels beach holidays until June amid coronavirus crisis

Britain’s economy has suffered another blow -- high street retailers Oasis and Warehouse are shutting, with the loss of 1,800 jobs:

Related: Oasis and Warehouse to close permanently, with loss of 1,800 jobs

Just in: America’s central bank is expanding one of its many new programmes to help the US economy ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program -- which is meant to help small firms access affordable credit, and stop viable companies going bust.

More than 2,200 letters from individuals, businesses, and nonprofits were received. In response to the public input, the Board decided to expand the loan options available to businesses, and increased the maximum size of businesses that are eligible for support under the program.

Fed Reserve to expand loan offerings + qualification for $600 billion lending effort for small, mid-size businesses hit by #COVID pandemic. Main Street Lending Program to allow larger businesses to participate, ease loan amounts. https://t.co/8Nx9mgbIpw

All the main American and European stock markets are firmly in the red today - risk is firmly off the menu:

Bank shares are falling across the eurozone following Christine Lagarde’s press conference.

Traders have noted her gloomy forecasts -- the possibility that the eurozone shrinks by an unprecedented 15% in the April-June quarter. The deeper the recession, and the slower the recovery, then the longer it will be until monetary conditions can ever normalise.

Stocks have dropped at the start of trading in New York too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped 301 points at the open, down 1.2% at 24,332. There’s not much sign of the optimism that lifted shares so strongly in April.

Back in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde is insisting that the ECB has plenty of firepower.

Lagarde says the Governing Council did not discuss whether to buy junk-rated bonds under its asset purchase scheme, or whether to extend its new PELTRO loan programme beyond banks.

HELICOPTER MONEY FOR BANKS. #ECB's Lagarde: €3tn now available to banks at negative rates. pic.twitter.com/gBlpdvKOAm

European stock markets are falling deeper into the red.

The FTSE 100 index has tumbled back through the 6,000 point mark, down 143 points or 2.3% at 5972.

Oof! U.S. personal spending has plummeted in March by the most on record.

Household spending slumped by 7.5% last month, which is the worst since the Commerce Department started counting in 1959. That’s rather worse than the 5.1% decline expected.

U.S. consumer spending plunges by the most on record https://t.co/NY4TwU96eJ pic.twitter.com/nGfUyGeUe4

Christine Lagarde hammers home the point, telling reporters that the coronavirus pandemic has “literally halted economic activity across the globe”.

The hard economic data is only just starting to emerge, she points out.

Lagarde: "frankly, our severe scenario is -15% economic growth in Q2"

Newsflash: ECB president Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone faces its worst slump in peacetime.

Speaking on a virtual press conference, Lagarde says the region faces an “unprecedented” downturn.

ECB President Lagarde says Europe facing a recession of unprecedented magnitude; GDP could fall between 5-12% this year, depending on duration of containment measures and policies to mitigate the consequences; speed of recovery is uncertain

Worryingly, there is a large backlog of Americans trying to sign on for jobless welfare.

Our business editor Dominic Rushe reports:

Another 3.8 million people lost their jobs in the US last week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to batter the economy. The pace of layoffs appears to be slowing, but in just six weeks an unprecedented 30 million Americans have now sought unemployment benefits and the numbers are still growing.

The latest figures from the labor department released Thursday showed a fourth consecutive week of declining claims. While the trend is encouraging, the rate of losses means US unemployment is still on course to reach levels unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Related: Another 3.8 million Americans lose jobs as US unemployment continues to grow

Newsflash: Another 3.84 million Americans filed new jobless claims last week, as the coronavirus lockdown continued to drive up unemployment.

That’s more than the 3.5m initial jobless claims that had been expected.

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 3,839,000 https://t.co/qzeWU4eGpX pic.twitter.com/TxhVqlvfLa

At 3.839M, Initial Jobless Claims came in above the 3.5M estimate, but below last week’s 4.442M level; this was the 4th weekly decline. Claims are still EXTREMELY high, but this leading indicator appears to have peaked on 3/28. https://t.co/maIeV4Rfa2 pic.twitter.com/sNnXRXN8ON

The ECB has resisted making any major moves today.

Significantly, it has not increased the size of its new €750bn asset purchase scheme (the pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP), which buys bonds and other assets to stimulate the economy. It has also not widened the programme to include junk-rated bonds.

The Governing Council is fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed.

Here’s some early reaction to the European Central Bank making its emergency loans package even more generous, to try to help banks lend to the economy.

Very dovish. ECB relaxes further TLTRO conditions with minimum rate reduced to 50bp below deposit facility rate and extends PEPP until the crisis is over. Main interest rates unchanged. https://t.co/IAf9DGh1mZ

#ECB to pay banks even more for borrowing and even if they don't lend on the cash to the economy. A sort of recapitalisation in disguise?

The stimulus package for European Banks. Cheaper bank funding means that ECB is primarily targeting the bank lending channel [+ offsetting impact of negative deposit rates]. Makes sense for ECB... bank lending in Europe more prevalent for financing. Let's hope there's demand $EUR

The main takeaways from today’s ECB announcement: The ECB remains extremely activist, extremely interventionist in risk-managing Eurozone financial conditions. It continues to refine liquidity provisions to the expectation of weakening collateral quality in bank loans. 1/2

But the big question in the room – Italy - remains beyond its powers. Whether we think the ECB is here to close spreads or not, do we think it is here to prevent a political crisis? The requirement for Italy's downgrade is the same as that for EUR membership: M/T sustainability.

Newsflash: The European Central Bank has responded to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 by beefing up its stimulus package.

The ECB’s governing council has decided to launch a new programme dubbed PELTROS -- which stands for pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations.

Britain will spend more than £100bn this financial year trying to repair the damage caused by the coronavirus, according to the latest estimates.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is tracking chancellor Rishi Sunak’s various pledges - from the jobs retention scheme to business rate relief. And it currently estimates that the total bill is £105bn, with Sunak’s furloughing scheme costing £49bn alone (although the Treasury should get £10bn back in tax)

Key costs in #coronavirus economic pkg according to @OBR_UK

Furlough scheme: £39bn net
Self-employed income support: £10bn
Small Biz Grant: £15bn
Biz rate relief: £13bn
Welfare package: £7bn

DOESN’T include estimate of any losses on various loan schemes

Our new database tracks the Chancellor’s policy interventions to limit the economic damage of coronavirus crisis. So far, the cost in 2020-21 is roughly £105 billion (in cash terms)

Download from our website: https://t.co/x9blRq9Ui0

European stock markets have turned south, after another morning of bleak economic data.

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 81 points or 1.3% at 60330, handing back half of yesterday’s rally.

Back in the UK, carmaker Nissan plans to reopen its Sunderland factory - the biggest single plant in the UK - at the start of June.

Production at the plant, which produces Nissan’s Qashqai and Juke models and the electric Leaf, has been suspended since 17 March, with many of its more than 6,000 workers furloughed.

Our goal is to navigate through this crisis while maintaining activities critical for business continuity and to make sure we are prepared for the time when business resumes in Europe and we can welcome the Nissan team back to work.

I missed this earlier, sorry, but Austria’s economy has also been hit by the pandemic.

Austrian GDP shrank by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020. That’s not as bad as France, Spain and Italy, but still puts Austria halfway into recession.

Austria GDP -2.5%, like Belgium -3.9% yesterday, shows that weakness is widespread in the eurozone, but far from the collapse seen today in Spain, France and likely in Italy. pic.twitter.com/Y58eCCixs5

Belgium GDP falls an unprecedented 3.9% in the first quarter.

Shows how severe the recession is going to be in the euro area. pic.twitter.com/o0kTzdRUYg

Recessions are bleak things. They typically mean rising unemployment, more company failures, a rise in bad debts, falling asset prices and widespread gloom and despair.

But this time, they also mean that the Covid-19 lockdown measures are being followed.

"Lockdowns work" is the unfortunate economic news from today. Let's hope that loosening the lockdowns has an equally swift impact in Q2. The good news for Germany is, that it's delayed & less severe lockdown will likely leave its economy contracting by "only" 2% or so in Q1. pic.twitter.com/YQYRWB1s7H

Ouch! The Covid-19 lockdown has wiped out all Italy’s growth since the eurozone crisis, and more!

Italian GDP was down by 4.7% over the quarter in Q1. What surprise me is that it was better than France and Spain, despite Italy started its lock-down earlier. However, while the Eurozone is now back to 2017 level, Italy is now back to early 2000 level. pic.twitter.com/ds2hnj7yfC

Newsflash: Italy has joined France in recession, after suffering its worst slump in decades.

Italian GDP shrank by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2020, new figures from ISTAT show.

ITALY Q1 GDP -4.7% pic.twitter.com/7azaDfNmsy

Today’s GDP data only gives us an early sighter of the dark slump which Europe’s economy is falling into.

Economists predict another historic contraction in April-June, as the full force of the Covid-19 lockdowns hit growth.

Eurozone Mar qtr GDP -3.8%qoq as lockdowns hit in Mar. But full impact of lockdowns to show this qtr with GDP likely ~-10%qoq ahead of a return to growth in second half as lockdowns ease
Unemp up only slightly but its a lagging indicator
Fall in inflation. (Bloomberg table) pic.twitter.com/A76zse9FSG

In case the #ECB needed any more bad news for its briefing notes...#Eurozone GDP fell by 3.8% QoQ in the first quarter. And this was only with roughly two weeks of lockdown and supply chain disruptions. Brace yourself for worse to happen.

The eurozone economy is shrinking even faster than feared, according to Reuters:

The eurozone economy contracted at a record rate and by more than expected in the first three months of the year and inflation slowed sharply as much economic activity in March came to a halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic, data showed on Thursday.

According to a preliminary flash estimate of the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat economic output in the 19 countries sharing the euro in January-March was 3.8% smaller than in the previous three months -- the sharpest quarterly decline since the time series started in 1995.

NEWSFLASH: the eurozone economy shrank by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, putting it halfway into recession.

That’s an extremely grim contraction, worse than during the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Euro area #GDP -3.8% in Q1 2020, -3.3% compared with Q1 2019: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/x17Ql1VD2U pic.twitter.com/1fNtPVZokS

EURO ZONE PRELIMINARY FLASH Q1 GDP ESTIMATE -3.8% Q/Q VS CONSENSUS -3.5%, -3.3% Y/Y VS CONSENSUS -3.1% - EUROSTAT

Here’s a reminder of this morning’s dire French growth figures (for those who weren’t wide awake at 6.30am)

Shocking collapse in French GDP in Q1. Down 5.8%.
Bigger than the financial crisis (Q1 2009 –1.6%)
Bigger than the May 68 strikes/demonstrations (Q2 1968 -5.3%)
Biggest drop since comparable records began in 1949 pic.twitter.com/Bc9yIkOo0N

Today’s woeful French and Spanish growth figures will have dampened the mood as the European Central Bank holds its monetary policy meeting today.

Sebastien Clements, currency analyst at international payments company OFX, says ECB chief Christine Lagarde and colleagues will be worried about the future.

“Not the ideal start to the day for President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, as both Spanish and French quarterly GDP figures came in at least 1% off the forecasted mark. It won’t be the figure itself that causes a headache, but rather the potential of what may follow…

“Lagarde has already laid her cards on the table with the bulk of the zone’s stimulus options having been delivered in the form of PEPP implementation and collateral loosening, but her job is not yet done. With its back against the wall, is now a good time for the ECB to get ahead of the curve and inject some investor confidence in the form of maintaining a stable monetary position? Just this morning, I spoke with a client at a UK food distributor who has decided to close their European entity and set up in Asia for the sake of supply side ease, cost cutting and licensing issues.”

Newsflash: A quarter of UK businesses currently trading say that their turnover has more than halved this month.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics, which has just published its latest ‘faster indicators’ of the pandemic’s impact on the economy.

These chart from Danske Bank’s Aila Mihr show how Germany’s unemployment total swelled alarmingly this month:

#Corona crisis reaches #Germany's labour market, with largest monthly increase in unemployment claims ever recorded. pic.twitter.com/x046HlXBuM

So 10.1 mln people on short-time work in #Germany, 373,000 more unemployed in April and the unemployment rate is now 5.8% from previous 5.0%
The virus is taking its toll on the German job market

A boom in disinfectant sales has benefited Reckitt Benckiser, which makes Dettol and Lysol.

“People want cleaner surfaces at home. They are cleaning more, washing more … Some behaviour becomes quite ingrained. There is a reinforcement of hygiene as a basis of health.”

Back in the UK, the boss of Sainsbury’s supermarket has predicted that disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will last until at least mid-September.

CEO Mike Coupe reckons that physically distanced queues are likely to remain “for the foreseeable future”, dampening hopes of an early end to lockdown restrictions.

Related: Sainsbury's boss says coronavirus disruption will last until mid-September

Just in: The number of people out of work in Germany has surged.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate has leapt to 5.8% this month, up from 5% in May, the Labour Office reports.

German unemployment increased from 5.0% to 5.8% in April. Labor market is supported by extensive use of kurzarbeit, but unemployment is set to increase further. However, Germany has fiscal means and willpower to support growth substantially later in the year #macrobond pic.twitter.com/OwdrhRnQT6

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell have tumbled 7% this morning after it disappointed investors by slashing its dividend by two thirds.

CEO Ben van Buerden defended the move as a “prudent” response to the “extremely challenging conditions” caused by Covid-19, with oil prices tumbling this year.

“Given the continued deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the significant mid- and long-term uncertainty, we are taking further prudent steps to bolster our resilience, underpin the strength of our balance sheet and support the long-term value creation of Shell.

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

France’s fall into recession hasn’t dampened the mood on the Paris stock market,

The CAC 40 index of leading French companies jumped by 0.9% in early trading to 4,711 points - a seven-week high.

The latest economic data from China shows that its recovery from the pandemic is being hit by weakness abroad.

China’s official manufacturing PMI (which measures activity in the sector) dropped to 50.8 for April from 52 in March. That shows less growth, as a reading of 50 indicates stagnation.

#China Factory Data Shows Global Slump Undercut Nascent Recovery - Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/gNTOU0UIt0 pic.twitter.com/4dycAL5BQc

Newsflash: Spain’s economy is also shrinking - and faster than feared.

Spanish real GDP -5.2% QoQ, also below expectations with private consumption and investment in free fall, unsurprisingly. https://t.co/HDCZMa2eFg pic.twitter.com/ugSiIBGgGh

Spain also worse than expected (even if less dramatically so): -5.2% vs consensus -4.3%

More gloom -- French consumer spending has taken a whopping dive last month, as the lockdown forced shops to close.

Consumer spending fell by almost 18% last month, INSEE reports, despite a rise in food spending. It’s the worst drop in consumer spending since at least 1980 (when the data series began).

Manufactured good consumption dropped sharply (–42.3% after –0.6%) and energy expenditure decreased markedly (–11.4% after –0.9%). Only food consumption increased (+7.8% after –0.1%).

The fall in household consumption in March 2020 was essentially due to the implementation of lockdown measures from mid-March onwards.

WOW
France Consumer Spending (Mar) Act: -17.9%, exp: -5.8%, prev: -0.1%

French bank SocGen has posted a surprise loss, and set aside €820m to cover bad loans - in another sign that Covid-19 is hurting France’s economy.

SocGen also suffered trading losses during the market mayhem of the last quarter. Bloomberg has heard that its traders came unstuck on some dividend futures contracts....

Several major companies are reporting the impact of Covid-19 on their businesses today.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is slashing its shareholder dividend for the first time since te 1940s. Investors will get just 16 cents per share, from 47 cents per share, after profits plunged in the last quarter.

France’s grim growth figures are a clear sign that Europe is entering its deepest recession of the postwar era, says Bloomberg.

The economy shrank 5.8%, the most since records began in 1949. The slump shows the dramatic effect of government-ordered shutdowns as just two weeks of closures and restrictions were sufficient to snuff out growth for the entire quarter. Figures for the euro area later on Thursday will probably show the end of a seven-year expansion, and worse is still to come as confinement has continued for the past month.

The virus outbreak has plunged economies across the globe into a tumult that was unthinkable at the start of the year. China’s economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter and the U.S. saw its record expansion come to an end. The IMF expects the global economy to shrink 3% this year, with the euro area dropping 7.5%.

The French economy posts its worst quarter on record https://t.co/zmnqLpeCxx

A 5.8% plunge in GDP is really, really bad.

As Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet Wealth Management shows here, it wipes out several years of French growth:

We're going to be talking about GDP *levels* more than quarterly growth rates for some time. Better get used to it. pic.twitter.com/MSWHv2VQUm

Here’s more reaction to France’s plunge into recession this morning.

France enters technical recession.

don't need Q2 to confirm ...

global economy was in dire shape b4 #CV19 pic.twitter.com/pWuSMALwmF

France's economy posted a historic decline of 5.8% and entered a recession. Expect Italy to follow.

France’s economy shrank even faster than economists predicted, Reuters points out:

The first quarter contraction was the biggest on a quarterly basis since World War II, surpassing the previous record of -5.3% in the second quarter of 1968 when France was gripped by civil unrest, mass student protests and general strikes.

The slump even exceeded most economists’ expectations, which on average were for -3.5%, although estimates in Reuters poll went as low as -7%.

This chart from INSEE’s growth report shows just how sharply France’s economy shrank:

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Newsflash: France has plunged into recession, as the Covid-19 lockdown batters its economy.

...primarily linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown since mid-March.

Household consumption expenditures dropped (–6.1%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –11.8%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –6.6 points to GDP growth.

Exports also fell this quarter (–6.5%) along with imports (–5.9%), in a less pronounced manner. All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.2 points, after –0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9 points).

French real GDP crashed by 5.8% QoQ in Q1, the biggest drop since the beginning of the series in 1949.https://t.co/ri7LxT1PlA pic.twitter.com/0AdesaH6mR

France officially enters recession, with economy shrinking by 5.8% in the first quarter, @InseeFr says. Worst quarter on record (since 1949)
Consumer spending -6.1%,
Company investments -11.4%
And remember France only went into lockdown in mid-March! @France24_en #F24

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Coronavirus outbreak could put 500K summer restaurants jobs in jeopardy

Restaurants across the U.S. are slated to reopen during the summer season as coronavirus restrictions are lifted. CNBC's Kate Rogers reports on what that could mean for restaurant jobs.




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Minority job loss requires strong response in next CARES Act: Former New Orleans Mayor

Marc Morial, former mayor of New Orleans and CEO and president of the National Urban League, discusses the worst U.S. jobs loss since the end of World War II and the groups that are struggling the most.




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April jobs report can shed light on how long the unemployment crisis could last, economist says

The April jobs report is expected to show the worst unemployment rate since the Great Recession. Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, and Beth Akers, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what they expect.




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Futures point to higher open ahead of April jobs report

U.S. stock futures rose early Friday morning after more gains in tech led to the Nasdaq Composite erasing all of its losses for 2020. CNBC's Frank Holland reports.




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US economy loses 20.5 million jobs in April, raising unemployment rate to 14.7%

CNBC's Steve Liesman breaks down the April jobs report, which came in at 20.5 million nonfarm payrolls lost in the month. This is the most historic job loss within a single month.




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Wharton's Jeremy Siegel on why historic April job losses aren't impacting stocks

Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the April jobs numbers and what the data means for the U.S. economy.




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Why Goldman's Jan Hatzius believes job losses may be higher than reported

Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs joins "Squawk on the Street" to discuss the latest jobs number, which saw the unemployment rate soar to 14.7 percent.




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Labor Secretary Scalia on April jobs data: These are very difficult numbers for us to see

CNBC's Tyler Mathisen talks about the historic job losses in April with Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia.




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The Englishman who lost his job after guiding New Zealand to the Olympics

Des Buckingham followed Under-20 World Cup success by qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics but lost his job last week

There is a word that Des Buckingham, during almost six years working in New Zealand, has used as a mantra to live by. In the Maori language, Mana represents a spiritual essence that almost defies translation but in everyday use it broadly applies thus: a way of holding oneself through dignity, respect, humanity and authority.

It has been invaluable over the past five days because Buckingham is navigating one of the biggest disappointments of a young coaching career that, since he moved to the other side of the world after leaving Oxford United in 2014, had rarely let up.

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Bank of England warns UK faces historic recession; US jobless claims hit 3.1m - business live

Britain’s central bank warns that the spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it could wipe 14% off UK GDP this year

Time to recap

Britain is facing its worst recession in 300 years, according to the latest scenario from the Bank of England. The BoE estimates that GDP will plunge by 25% this quarter, with unemployment hitting 9%, due to the abrupt halt to activity under the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

New unemployment claims filed in the past 7 weeks:

Week ending...
March 21: 3.3 million
March 28: 6.9 million (**a record**)
April 4: 6.6 million
April 11: 5.2 million
April 18: 4.4 million
April 25: 3.8 million
May 2: 3.2 million

Total: Nearly 33.5 million Americans w/out work pic.twitter.com/KZonDSSPG7

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 3.2m, down from the previous week’s figure of 3.8m and half the peak recorded 5 weeks ago, but roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. These figures support estimates of the April unemployment figure, to be released tomorrow, to reach a shocking 16%.

“Markets, however, are now looking beyond the employment data and forward to the potential recovery. With some US states now beginning to reopen for business, investors will be watching closely to see how quickly employees return to work and how rapidly economic activity bounces back.

A late rally has lifted the UK stock market to its highest level in a week.

The FTSE 100 has just closed 82 points higher at 5935, a gain of 1.4%.

The International Monetary Fund says it has approved requests for emergency pandemic aid totalling $18bn, from 50 of its 189 members, and is working through another 50 requests.

Reuters has more details;

The IMF’s executive board was working through requests at record speed and would consider a request from Egypt for both emergency financing and a stand-by lending arrangement on May 11, spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in an online briefing.

“It’s an IMF moving at an unprecedented speed in an unprecedented way to meet this unprecedented challenge which we’re all facing,” he said, noting the Fund had also temporarily suspended payments on IMF debts for 25 of the poorest countries.

The gloom in the luxury goods sector is deepening even though some countries have started to relax their coronavirus lockdowns.

“As consumers slowly emerge from lockdowns, the way they see the world will have changed and luxury brands will need to adapt.

Safety in store will be mandatory, paired with the magic of the luxury experience: creative ways to attract customers to store, or to get the product to the customer, will make the difference.”

Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management, doesn’t share the exuberance in the markets today.

“The US labor market is in the worst position since the Great Depression and is unlikely to improve sustainably anytime soon. Until widespread testing, an effective therapy, and a vaccine are in place, any improvement in employment is likely to be temporary.

Premature efforts to reopen economies undermine our progress in controlling the pandemic and risk extending the duration of the downturn.”

The Nasdaq has shrugged off Covid-19 fears because investors are rushing into “giant tech names that are considered more resilient in this crisis”, explained Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM.

That includes Amazon (up 27% this year) and Microsoft (up 16%).

Remarkably, the US Nasdaq index has now caught up all this year’s losses.

The tech-focused share index is now flat for 2020, thanks to strong recoveries in major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq is positive for the year. pic.twitter.com/HtkHzXAzEd

As expected, the US stock market has indeed jumped in early trading.

Jobless claims should be back below 1M by the 2nd or 3rd week of June; the rate of decay is quite consistent. pic.twitter.com/OtOoeir28P

European stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains, despite the latest grim US jobs data.

Wall Street is expected to open higher too, with the Dow up around 1% in pre-market trading.

Repeat after me.

Equities are forward looking jobless claims backward.

Therefore entirely normal at times for them to move in different directions. And yet we get the same old headlines asking why.

The spectre of unemployment is haunting America - but in some states more than others:

Jobless Claims Since March 20th as a Percent of Total State Employment: pic.twitter.com/me0mbMFvQj

Before the Covid-19 crisis began, America had never lost a million jobs in a single week before.

It has now suffered seven consecutive weeks of massive job losses, as firms have slashed staff under the coronavirus lockdown.

33.5 million Americans have filed jobless claims over the last 7 weeks. https://t.co/WIOd3ZzpVq pic.twitter.com/8vqdipxopI

Our US business editor Dominic Rushe says some US states are really struggling to cope with the unprecedented surge in unemployment.

He writes:

The pace of layoffs has overwhelmed state unemployment systems across the country. Over a million people in North Carolina have now made unemployment insurance benefit claims, equivalent to 20% of the state’s workforce.

Some 4 million have applied in California and the state’s jobless benefits fund is “very close” to running out, governor Gavin Newsom said this week.

Related: Coronavirus: three million more Americans file for unemployment

Some instant reaction to the latest US jobless report:

The effects of the #coronavirusrecession continue to ripple through the economy. In the week ending in May 2, 3.2 million workers filed for initial unemployment benefits, according to the @USDOL’s Weekly #unemploymentinsurance (UI) claims report. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/XUFFtG3Rpp

3.17 MILLION people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. Almost 33.5 MILLION filing jobless claims in 7 weeks. 1 in 5 Americans unemployed. These are lives and family shaken, devastated.

Though still tremendously elevated, the 3.2 mln new unempl claims continues downward trend as initial surge passes. But # of Americans receiving jobless benefits, pierced 22 mln. pic.twitter.com/b4SF5apZR6

Newsflash: Another 3.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobless crisis rages.

That’s down from 3.8m in the previous week, but still another awful number.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,169,000 for the week ending 5/2 (-677,000).

Insured unemployment was 22,647,000 for the week ending 4/25 (+4,636,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

Stocks are continuing to rise in London, seemingly lifted by hopes that some UK lockdown restrictions will be eased soon.

The FTSE 100 is now up 63 points or 1.1% at 5917, after the government confirmed that Boris Johnson will reveal his strategy on Sunday evening:

NEW: Boris Johnson will be giving a statement at 7pm on Sunday discussing the route out of the #COVID19 lockdown and the government's next steps.

With oil, mining and banking stocks all in the green, the FTSE added another 0.9% as the session went on, sticking its nose across 5900 for the first time in a week. This would suggest that investors have swallowed the bitter 14% contraction in 2020 pill offered up by the BoE, thanks to the spoonful of sugar that is the expectation of a 15% rebound in 2021.

Elsewhere the markets were just as perky, investors continuing to express their relief at the various ongoing and soon-to-be unveiled lockdown-easing measures around the globe. The DAX passed 10700 as it climbed 0.8%, while the CAC struck 4470 following a 50 point increase.

Our economic editor Larry Elliott says the BoE is pinning its hopes on a V-shaped recovery to GDP - and pushing banks to do their bit.

One of the key messages from the Bank to the high street lenders was that they stand to lose more by not lending than they will by lending freely, because there will be more long-term scarring of the economy, more companies going bust and more losses for them to swallow. At his press conference, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was ramming home this point to lenders at at every opportunity.

Forecasting is tough at the best of times: in the current circumstances – where there is uncertainty about how fast restrictions will be lifted, how consumers will behave, and whether there will be a second wave of infection – it is all but impossible.

All that can really be said is that the risks to the Bank’s scenario are skewed heavily to the downside. Threadneedle Street decided against providing more stimulus at this week’s meeting, but it is only a question of time.

Related: Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle

New: BoE governor Andrew Bailey tells me while it's unlikely, he doesn't rule out cutting UK interest rates into negative territory (unlike M Carney):
"Previous governors didn't have in mind this scenario we're in today. And I think it's wise not to rule anything off the table."

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has told Sky News that the slump in the UK economy this year is “unique, certainly in modern times”.

But he’s also optimistic that activity is likely to recover “much more quickly” than after a normal recession:

.@bankofengland Governor Andrew Bailey says despite the "unique" challenges of #coronavirus, he believes the lifting of the lockdown will see activity in the economy recover 'quicker than it would if was a normal recession.'

Read more here: https://t.co/xVqko9FY6J pic.twitter.com/heyAfBtIMQ

It’s been a busy morning for telecoms news too.

Cable operator Virgin Media and mobile network O2 are merging, to create a £31bn “national champion” to challenge BT and Sky in the UK.

Related: Virgin Media and O2 owners confirm £31bn mega-merger in UK

Related: BT suspends dividend to free up 5G and broadband investment

Here’s Anna Stewart of CNN on the Bank of England’s forecasts:

Bank of England says the economy will contract by 25% in the second quarter. Yes it’s bad.

However, it’s far better than OBR forecast of -35% a couple of weeks ago.

Plus take a look at the projected recovery... pic.twitter.com/PMlsLDAPXe

Sharp rise in unemployment - expected to hit 9% in Q2.

However, compare that to :
WH economist Kevin Hassett has warned of 20% unemployment in April

London’s Evening Standard points out that the Covid-19 slump will be three times as severe as after the financial crisis of 2008.

Today’s ⁦@EveningStandard⁩ on the plans to stagger the rush hour and the latest Bank Of England forecasts pic.twitter.com/A811vwVaTL

Covid-19 lockdowns has already pushed British Airway’s parent company into the red.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

British Airways owner International Airlines Group made a £1.5bn loss in the first three months of the year, as chief executive Willie Walsh said it would take three years for passenger demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

IAG has halted 94% of its flights in response to travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, causing it to bleed cash. Last week, British Airways set out plans to make up to 12,000 of its staff redundant because of the global collapse in air travel.

Related: British Airways owner reports £1.5bn loss due to coronavirus

Despite the Bank of England’s gloomy prognosis for this year, stocks and the pound are a little higher this morning.

That’s partly because the BoE expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, after a 14% contraction this year [although arithmetically that still leaves the economy smaller]

The Bank of England’s new governor, Andrew Bailey, has hinted that the BoE could expand its stimulus programme at its next meeting in June.

Bloomberg’s Jill Ward has the details:

Two of the BOE’s nine policy makers wanted to immediately increase bond purchases -- the main policy tool now that the key interest rate is near zero -- by 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) in a decision announced early Thursday. The rest agreed downside risks “might necessitate further monetary policy action.”

Bailey, who earlier pledged “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the economy during the coronavirus crisis, told reporters that the fact no action was taken this time doesn’t rule out a response soon.

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that policy makers could expand monetary stimulus as soon as next month as the U.K. faces an economic slump that could be the worst in Europe"https://t.co/iQK3nKt2ef pic.twitter.com/XMtpY5HHsH

Trade unions are urging the UK government not to make the economic downturn worse by turning off its furlough scheme too quickly.

The TUC says that today’s statistics showing that two-thirds of firms have tapped the Jobs Retention scheme shows it is vital.

Around half of the workforce are working from home, but varies drastically by industry.

A big majority of workers in the information and communication and professional sectors are working from home, whereas it's a small minority in other industries. pic.twitter.com/QDN3wcbIVk

Around a quarter (23%) of businesses have ceased or paused trading.

This rises to around 80% in the arts and accommodation and food sectors. pic.twitter.com/IsHQKI5wYF

UK banks have approved an additional 8,550 government-backed business loans worth £1.4bn within the past week, but are still struggling to increase the pace of approvals amid rising demand.

The original coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS) has now lent around £5.5bn to 33,812 small and medium sized businesses since the programme was launched on 23 March.

“Bank staff have worked tirelessly over the past week to provide businesses with the finance they need, delivering another £1.4 billion of lending under the CBIL scheme, on top of over £2 billion in Bounce Back Loans targeted at smaller firms and sole traders.”

Hat-tip to Ben Chu of the Independent, for showing just how grim the Bank of England’s forecasts are:

The Bank of of England's scenario for UK GDP for the full year of 2020 is...

-14%

That would be the worst year for the economy since 1706 according to the Bank's own historical dataset pic.twitter.com/aKflRovluH

We have estimates of quarterly UK GDP going back to 1920

The Bank's scenario has -25% in the second quarter of 2020.

That would be by far the worst seen: pic.twitter.com/7SH34zwqPW

The Treasury Committee chairman Mel Stride has ordered Barclays to explain why customers are still having trouble accessing bounce back loans - which are meant to protect UK businesses from this year’s slump.

The 100% government-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme is meant to get cash to struggling businesses far more quickly than other programmes. Any impediments put those firms at risk, Stride said:

“Issues that hamper this are very frustrating to customers and may in some cases threaten business survival.

“I raised the problems that some people were having in accessing the Barclays online system with their CEO during our public committee hearing on Monday and was assured then that the system was able to cope well.

Just in: nearly a quarter of UK firms have temporarily closed due to the pandemic, and two-thirds are furloughing some staff.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics. It just reported that 23% of businesses who responded to its latest survey said they had “temporarily closed or paused trading” last month.

The Bank of England has also shown how its scenario compare to City economists’ forecasts -- where the range is rather, er, broad:

Here's my fave chart from this morning's Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - it's the all-important "nobody knows" chart. pic.twitter.com/vsozkW5fC6

The key message from the Bank of England today is that activity in the UK has fallen sharply, and is going to continue to plunge during this quarter.

Explaining why it thinks the UK will shrink 14% this year, it says:

Official data are sparse at this stage, but high‑frequency indicators suggest that consumer spending has fallen steeply since March. In large part, that reflects the impact of both enforced and voluntary social distancing, with some additional drag from lower incomes and confidence about the outlook. In those areas most affected, such as tourism and eating out, indicators including aircraft departures and data on the number of seated diners at restaurants suggest that spending has all but come to a halt.

The closure of businesses and widespread moves to working from home have reduced the number of journeys by car and public transport substantially. In addition, spending on many durables is likely to have been delayed. One area that has proved stronger is spending on food, as households substitute spending at supermarkets for eating out. Nevertheless, consumer spending in aggregate has fallen very significantly. In 2020 Q2, it is expected to be almost 30% lower than in 2019 Q4.

There are also signs that UK house prices are starting to slide, amid the lockdown.

Halifax has reported that prices fell by 0.6% in April, on top of a 0.3% dip in March:

The #Halifax reported #UK #house #prices dipped 0.6% month-on-month in April after a revised fall of 0.3% in March. The annual rate of increase moderated to 2.7% in April from 3.0% in March and a peak of 4.1% in January (which had been the highest level since February 2018).

The Covid-19 crisis has prompted Norway’s central bank to slash its interest rates to zero.

In a surprise move, the Norges Banks just lowered its key borrowing rate from 0.25% to 0.0%, a record low.

Norges Bank now predicts the mainland economy, which excludes oil and gas output, will contract by 5.2% in 2020, down from a March 13 forecast of 0.4% growth. It expects growth of 3.0% in 2021, up from 1.3% seen earlier.

BREAKING: #Norway's central bank delivers surprise rate cut to 0% in a unanimous decision. Don't envisage making further rate cuts but outlook and balance of risks imply very expansionary monetary policy stance. #Norges

#Norway's central bank lowers its benchmark rate to 0.00%! pic.twitter.com/e0pLjZzaSR

My colleague Richard Partington writes that the Bank of England has sounded the alarm about the slump in the UK economy this year:

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 25% this spring and unemployment more than double as the coronavirus pandemic brings the country to an effective standstill.

Leaving interest rates on hold as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures used to contain its spread.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

The Resolution Foundation think tank is concerned that the Bank of England predicts such a sharp jump in unemployment, and only a slow recovery in the labour market:

That 14 per cent hit to the economy is equivalent to around £300 billion, or £9,000 for every family in Britain, and shows why the Bank and Government are right to have protected households as much as possible with policies such as the Job Retention Scheme.

While the Bank’s scenario implies the UK economy will return towards its pre-pandemic growth path in 2021, it projects unemployment to remain above its pre-pandemic path until at least 2023 – after reaching a 25-year high of 9 per cent this year.

Stark unemployment forecast from the Bank of England this morning, and expects 25% contraction in the economy in the quarter to June. pic.twitter.com/pHQZPwXHCN

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, fears the UK economy could shrink even more sharply than the Bank of England has forecast.

The Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year, when the UK-EU withdrawal agreement ends, creates added uncertainty, she writes:

“Despite the stark numbers issued by the Bank of England today, additional pressure on the economy is likely. Some social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus, with people also remaining reluctant to socialise and spend. That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.

“Looking at the medium term, beyond the impact of reduced investment, other forces could to be in play dampening future productivity. Supply chains are likely to be reconfigured in light of this crisis, potentially increasing geographical diversification and reducing efficiency in order to increase resilience. ‘Just in time’ operations are also likely to be a thing of the past, further eroding productivity. On the other hand, we could see significant consolidation among SMEs, lifting productivity among the long tail of underperforming businesses.

The only good news today is that the Bank expects this economic bombshell to be short-lived, and for the economy to bounce back rapidly. However, the MPC itself concedes it is flying blind to a large extent, warning that a pandemic like this is “especially difficult to quantify”.

“While the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy stance at today’s meeting, it is surely only a matter of time before they decide to. The 7-2 split on whether to increase asset purchases indicates a continued dovish bias from certain voting members.

With the Bank hoovering up gilts equivalent to those issued since the additional £200 billion in quantitative easing was announced, it will run out of firepower to support government spending within in months. Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Bank of England to delay its much-anticipated bank climate stress tests.

The central bank has concluded that UK banks have enough to deal with, without calculating how they are positioned to handle the climate emergency (a key concern for former governor Mark Carney).

“Recognizing current pressures on firms, and in light of the responses to the December 2019 Discussion Paper on the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario, the PRC and FPC have agreed to postpone the launch of the exercise until at least mid-2021.

This delay reflects a desire to maintain the ambitious scope of the exercise, whilst giving firms enough time to invest sufficiently in their capabilities to allow them to deliver to a high standard.”

The Bank’s new Financial Stability Report says UK households have entered the lockdown in a stronger position than before the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to substantial support including payment holidays on mortgages and credit cards.

However, the Bank warned that the sharp economic downturn would put pressure on personal finances and that it would have to keep a close eye on potential risks that may emerge once those payment holidays expire. That could include a fresh wave of customers attempting to refinance their debt.

There is some good news.... the Bank of England is confident that Britain’s banks can ride out the Covid-19 pandemic, and handle a 14% plunge in GDP this year.

It says the banking sector is sufficiently capitalised to cover losses during the outbreak, especially as the BoE is providing more support to the sector.

Businesses and households will need to borrow to get through this period. We want banks and building societies to expand lending. We have tested the major UK banks. They are strong enough to keep lending, which will support the economy and limit losses to themselves.

We are offering more long-term funding to banks that increase their lending.

Here’s a table outlining the Bank of England’s new Covid-19 scenario.

As you can see, it shows UK GDP shrinking 14% this year, business investment crumbling by 26%, household spending down 14%, and average earnings down 2%:

The Bank of England has produced a 20-minute video, explaining today’s monetary policy decisions and its new scenario for how the UK economy will shrink this year:

Reuters points out that the Bank of England is predicting the worst economic slump in centuries this year -- and a very strong recovery in 2021:

The Bank of England held off further stimulus measures but said it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus hammering which could cause the country’s biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 before a bounceback in 2021.

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at its all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at £645bn.

Bank of England gives a big "V" to economists who think there'll be a lasting hit from the COVID-19 slump.

Illustrative scenario shows 14% drop in GDP in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021 of... 15%! pic.twitter.com/Wf5Z4Rp9Ds

In another startling forecast, the Bank of England predicts that the global economy could contract by 20% this quarter.

It warns that the coronavirus pandemic, and the lockdown measures introduced to slow it, are hitting economic activity extremely hard:

The spread of the virus and the measures taken to protect public health have caused a substantial reduction in activity around the world. Survey indicators such as the output components of PMIs have fallen to record‑low levels since the start of the year, and suggest that many countries have experienced extremely sharp falls in activity.

Bank staff estimate that UK‑weighted world GDP declined by around 4% in Q1 and could fall by over 20% in Q2. World trade has also declined significantly, and is expected to contract by around twice as much as global GDP in 2020. While many major countries have introduced wage subsidy schemes to reduce job losses, unemployment has increased markedly around the world and many more employees are working less than usual.

Despite the government’s efforts, the Bank of England predicts that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months.

Its new Covid-19 scenario suggests the UK jobless rate could soon spike to 9% - up from 4% at present - even though the government is encouraging firms to furlough staff.

As activity has fallen, the number of people in work has dropped sharply. It is likely that the Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has materially reduced the number of redundancies. Early data suggest that applications for furlough have been received from 800,000 companies covering over six million jobs.

The number of people furloughed might be a little lower, though, as some could have more than one furloughed job. While the CJRS has significantly limited job losses, the flow of new Universal Credit benefit claims and early indicators of redundancies suggest that unemployment has risen sharply over the past couple of months. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9% in Q2.

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year.

It has drawn up a new scenario, showing how the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt growth.

The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world. Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.

The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently. Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly.

Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation is expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Some early breaking news: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at their record lows, at its policy meeting today.

The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April. Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.

Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased. According to the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, companies’ sales are expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower.

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Four causes for alarm in the US jobs figures – and one possible reason for hope

More than 20m Americans lost their jobs in April – and Friday’s report suggests there might be much more trouble ahead

Friday was a dark day for the US economy. The labor department announced more than 20 million people lost their jobs in April as the coronavirus shut down much of the economy.

Here are five key takeaways from a report that will enter the history books as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

This was the #JobsReport everyone was fearing & for good reason: 20M jobs lost. For African Americans unemployment rose to 16.7% & a similar jump for Whites to 14.2%.

This gives a historically low ratio of 1.3. Of course that means it took a pandemic to get these rates closer. pic.twitter.com/XPIG57BpJi

Sometimes it's better to not post anything at all

Continue reading...




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You’re Not an Imposter if You Have a Dayjob and Write

Over the years I’ve seen some writers who took the full time plunge express strong imposter syndrome and a sense of shame when going back to a day job. Sometimes it kills their desire to write because they feel like a failure. I don’t think biographies of writers emphasize how many famous writers had day… Continue reading You’re Not an Imposter if You Have a Dayjob and Write




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As Trump Claims "Fantastic Job" on COVID, Reporter Laurie Garrett Warns Pandemic May Last 36+ Months

As President Trump starts to reopen the country, Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer Laurie Garrett predicts the pandemic will last at least 36 months. Meanwhile, a top government vaccine specialist says he was forced from his job after he resisted the administration's promotion of untested treatments for COVID-19. Garrett predicted the pandemic. In an extended interview, she discusses what's next.






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Beepatrice's Other Job

foomp




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Julian Sands: ‘My worst job? Father Christmas at a department store’

The actor on Derek Jarman, his wife’s right eye and the birthday party he wasn’t invited to

Born in Yorkshire, Sands, 62, studied at the Central School of Speech and Drama in London. He had a role in Derek Jarman’s Broken English and went on to appear in The Killing Fields, A Room With A View and Arachnophobia. His latest films are Yeh Ballet, available on Netflix, and The Painted Bird, out later this year. He is married, has three children, and lives in Los Angeles.

When are you happiest?
Close to a mountain summit on a glorious cold morning.

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20m Americans lost their jobs in April in worst month since Great Depression

Unemployment rate rose to 14.7% from just 4.4% in March as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the global economy

More than 20 million people in the US lost their jobs in April and the unemployment rate more than trebled as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the world’s largest economy, triggering a financial crisis unseen since the Great Depression.

The Department of Labor announced Friday that the US unemployment rate rose to 14.7% from just 4.4% in March and a near 50-year low of 3.5% in February before the US was hit by the virus.

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Labour urges extended eviction ban amid risk of huge job losses

Five-point plan to protect renters comes as poll shows 1.7 million people fear unemployment

Labour is calling on the government to draw up emergency measures to protect renters beyond June as polling shows up to 1.7 million people in the private sector fear that they will lose their jobs this summer.

Dire economic forecasts released this week, including a Bank of England warning that the country faces its worst recession in 300 years, has prompted Labour to rapidly escalate its call for current protections for the rented sector, like the three-month ban on evictions in England and Wales, to be extended.

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Manager Tries To Fire Employee, Ends Up Out Of Job

This manager was power tripping all over the place. Fortunately, the employee was ready to take their revenge, and the manager's fraudulent practices end up being their ultimate undoing. We love a good revenge story where the manager gets what was coming to them in the end. 




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Majestically Unprofessional "Not My Job" Moments

Work in any field long enough and you'll see your fair share of wonderfully unprofessional "not my job" moments. There's slides that go right off buildings, misspelled signs and extremely lazy line painting, just to name a few. It makes you feel good about yourself to see people's majestically incompetent "not my job" moments.




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Larry Kudlow on April jobs report: Trump assembled $9T rescue plan, we’ve done the best we can

U.S. loses record 20.5 million jobs in the month of April; White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow weighs in on ‘America’s Newsroom.’





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Design is a (hard) job.

DESIGN WAS so much easier before I had clients. I assigned myself projects with no requirements, no schedule, no budget, no constraints. By most definitions, what I did wasn’t even design—except that it ended up creating new things, some of which still exist on the web. Soon I had requirements, schedules, and constraints, but most […]

The post Design is a (hard) job. appeared first on Zeldman on Web & Interaction Design.




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A panel on accessibility, design inclusion and ethics, hiring and retaining diverse talent, and landing a job in UX.

It’s one thing to seek diverse talent to add to your team, another to retain the people you’ve hired. Why do so many folks we bring in to add depth and breadth of experience to our design and business decision-making process end up leaving? Hear thoughtful, useful answers to this question and other mysteries of […]

The post A panel on accessibility, design inclusion and ethics, hiring and retaining diverse talent, and landing a job in UX. appeared first on Zeldman on Web & Interaction Design.




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Reducing job strain may lower risk of new mental illness cases



If your workplace is supporting its employees by reducing their job strain, it may boost in preventing new cases of common mental illness from occurring up to 14 per cent, a new study suggests.

The findings, published in the journal Lancet Psychiatry, confirm that high job strain is associated with an increased risk of developing common mental disorders such as depression and anxiety amongst middle-aged workers.

Job strain is a term used to describe the combination of high work pace, intensity, and conflicting demands, coupled with low control or decision-making capacity.

"The results indicate that if we were able to eliminate job strain situations in the workplace, up to 14 per cent of cases of common mental illness could be avoided," said lead author Samuel Harvey, Associate Professor at the Black Dog Institute in Australia.

"These findings serve as a wake-up call for the role workplace initiatives should play in our efforts to curb the rising costs of mental disorders," Harvey added.

To determine levels of job strain, 6,870 participants completed questionnaires at age 45 testing for factors including decision authority, skill discretion and questions about job pace, intensity and conflicting demands.

The researchers also accounted for non-workplace factors including divorce, financial problems, housing instability, and other stressful life events like death or illness.

The models developed in this study controlled for individual workers' temperament and personality, their IQ, level of education, prior mental health problems and a range of other factors from across their early lives.

The final modelling suggested that those experiencing higher job demands, lower job control and higher job strain were at greater odds of developing mental illness by age 50, regardless of sex or occupational class.

"Workplaces can adopt a range of measures to reduce job strain, and finding ways to increase workers' perceived control of their work is often a good practical first step. This can be achieved through initiatives that involve workers in as many decisions as possible," Harvey, who is also affiliated with the University of New South Wales in Australia, noted.

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Sharad Pawar: PM Modi keeping mum on farmer suicides, lack of jobs

NCP chief Sharad Pawar has accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of deliberately maintaining "silence" on issues like suicide by farmers and unemployment while campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls. Addressing a rally at Bhayander in Thane district of Maharashtra Monday night, Pawar said unemployment has gone up manifold since the NDA government came to power in 2014.

The former Union minister alleged that the Modi government lacked policies for ensuring industrial and agricultural growth. He was canvassing for Anand Paranjape who is the NCP candidate from Kalyan Lok Sabha constituency.

"Due to lack of any industrial policy, unemployment has gone up in Maharashtra which is the most industrialised state in the country. Modi government is deliberately not making any attempts to ensure the growth of industries and agriculture," the NCP chief said.

Claiming that as many as 11,990 farmers have killed themselves since the BJP government assumed office, Pawar said the prime minister avoids talking about this reality as well as other issues like farm distress, water scarcity and price rise at hustings. "Modi also keeps mum on the Rafale deal scam. Under Modi regime, institutions like RBI, CBI, supreme court etc. are being undermined," he alleged.

Last week, Pawar lambasted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying he is "peeping into the homes of others" as he has no family of his own. Addressisng a poll rally at Partur here Monday, Pawar said Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was released by Pakistan under pressure from the world community and the Modi government had no role in it.

"I have my wife, daughter, son-in-law and nephews. What Modi has?...no one," he said, attacking the PM over his remarks on feud in the Pawar family. "That is why Modi is peeping into the homes of others. How will he (Modi) know how to run a family, he has no one?" the former Union minister said.

The Maratha strongman said Modi stooped low by making comments about his family, but he cannot behave in the same way. At an election rally in Wardha early this month, Modi had said a family war is going on in the NCP. The PM had also claimed that Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is slowing capturing the 1999-founded party. Pawar said if Modi had a 56-inch chest, as he has claimed, then why his government has failed to ensure the release of Kulbhushan Jadhav, a former Navy officer, from Pakistani jail.

Catch up on all the latest Crime, National, International and Hatke news here. Also, download the new mid-day Android and iOS apps to get the latest updates





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COVID-19 Outbreak: Swab collection a high risk job, says doctor

A doctor working at a hospital for treatment of coronavirus patients here in Maharashtra has revealed the tough task and challenges they face in collecting swab samples of the suspected patients. The process of swab sample collection of a person does not take more than 30 to 40 seconds, but it is a "high-risk job", Dr Pushkar Dahiwal, who collects 80 to 100 swab samples in a day at the government hospital in Aurangabad, told PTI.

"We work for three days and then remain self- quarantined for 14 days," he informed. During the six-hour duty, doctors have to keep wearing the personal protective equipment (PPE) and amidst the fast-paced work, they do not even get a chance to drink water, he said. "We need to finish the work in a short time to avoid contact with patients and also with those who come to give their swab samples," the doctor said. A 10 to 12 cm long stick is used to collect a sample from a person's throat, while the stick used for collecting a sample from the nose is comparatively longer and thinner, he said.

"Before the person coughs or sneezes, we need to finish the sample collection. Being a dentist, I have the practice of handling the patient's mouth area," he said. Dahiwal also said that at times they need to counsel coronavirus suspects as some of them think they don't have the infection but carry fear in mind. "Some of the people think the test is something different and dangerous. But, we explain the procedure to them so that there should be no need to collect another sample of the person," Dahiwal said.

The nurse and other accompanying staff also need to stay alert as the swab samples are to be sealed immediately and kept in a proper storage facility, he said. "If the swab sample falls, it would be a problem. All these things have to be completed in a very short span of time. So, there is no scope for mistake," he added. Dahiwal also recalled that he took care of victims of the 26/11 terror attack in 2008 at the Saint George Hospital in Mumbai. "I left the Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus in Mumbai just 20 minutes before the attack began. At that time, we had feared the attackers may come from any side. That incident keeps coming to my mind every time when I collect swab samples of suspected coronavirus patients," he said.

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No new jobs, promotions, extra expenses for state government

In view of the financial hit the state is likely to take owing to the pandemic, the state government has taken several austerity measures.

New schemes, construction, purchases by the state have been barred while new jobs will not be created. Employees will not be transferred and promoted this financial year.

A resolution issued by the chief secretary on Monday said that the current schemes will have to run on 33 per cent grant instead of 100 per cent. Health, medical education, relief and rehabilitation, food and civil supplies departments will get priority in state funding.

'Review schemes'
The departments have been asked to review current schemes and work on them with a limited budget.

However, there will be no cut in essential spendings like salaries and pension payments.

Pending bills to be paid
Buying gizmos, furniture and hiring offices have not been allowed. The expenses on event management have been curtailed. The pending bills will be paid using whatever the finances are available.

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COVID-19 heroes gather Mumbai's biomedical waste, make kin understand importance of their job

Encouraging everyone around him to stay indoors, Mayur Jadhav himself has been visiting various containment zones in Lokhandwala and Oshiwara wearing a PPE suit for three to four hours daily. A frontline worker, Jadhav does the risky job of collecting bio-medical waste from residential buildings and COVID-19 quarantines.

Amid the Coronavirus-caused lockdown, people are asked to put household waste in black bags and bio-medical waste — gloves, masks and items touched by COVID-19 patients, staffers at a quarantine facility — in yellow bags.

Like Jadhav, conservancy workers dealing with bio-medical waste are trained for the task. Jadhav, 30, resides at Durgadevi Chawl, Vakola and after weeks of practice, he is comfortable with the job. "Initially, I was worried as I had heard many were getting sick. But once we get the hang of it, we do the work without problems. Every day, we put sanitiser and spray disinfectant on the yellow bag and wait for five minutes before loading it on the vehicle meant only for yellow bags," he said. In K West ward, there are over 650 COVID-19 cases and over 300 containment zones.

'Made wife understand'

Rishikesh Dhotre, 43, is among the workers residing far from his workplace and spends over 10 hours outdoors. He leaves his Nalasopara residence 4:45 am for Worli and returns home around 3:30 pm. "I was nervous as we were visiting places everyone was asked to avoid. My wife would fight and ask why I am the one to go. But gradually, I understood the precautions we have to take and explained them to my wife. She is worried but understands the importance of the job," Dhotre said.

While Dhotre is glad to have access to fresh PPE kits every day, he also has to contend with how hot it gets during the three-hour collection.

Worried about family

Conservancy workers constantly worry about their family members, especially senior citizens at a higher risk of infection. Sarthak Chandramani, 29, works in G North ward comprising Dharavi. He takes extra precautions once he reaches home as he has a two-and-a-half-year-old daughter and 63-year-old father.

"I don't touch my phone after wearing the PPE and I call my family before I reach home. They have strict instructions to leave the house and keep a bucket of hot water and soap near the door. They are only allowed to enter after I have soaked my clothes in the bucket and gone for a bath," he said.

Chandramani often picks up medical waste falling out of the garbage bags with his hands. "People often overstuff garbage bags and then they can't be tied. Waste falls out from overflowing bags and we have to disinfect it, put back in the bag and disinfect the bag again," he said. Chandramani lives in BDD chawl, another high-risk area.

After the recent death of a civic official on food-distribution duty in Dharavi due to COVID-19, the BMC is screening all staffers. Kiran Dighavkar, assistant municipal commissioner, G North ward, said, "We have around 900 labourers collecting waste and there are 200 containment zones in this ward. We conduct screening once a week and check for fever with infrared thermometers. We have also counselled staffers to immediately report symptoms," he said.

Where is biomedical waste taken?

Medical waste is taken to a biomedical facility managed by the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board at Deonar. Amar Supate, principal scientific officer with MPCB said that since March 29, the facility has processed 11 tonnes of COVID-19 waste from Containment Zones and other biomedical waste.
"The yellow bags are directly put into the incinerator. Other kinds of plastic waste, glass vials, injections or syringes and scalpels are sterilised with sodium hypochlorite and then shredded for recycling," Supate said.

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Mumbai: Kin of BEST staffer dying from COVID-19 to get job

The civic-run Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) undertaking on Friday said it would recruit a kin if any employee dies due to the coronavirus infection while on duty. It would be in the Class II or IV categories depending on the kin's educational qualifications, an official said. "Employment will be provided to the wife or son or unmarried daughter of a deceased employee.

If the person who died is a bachelor, then the job would be given to his brother or unmarried sister," an official said.

So far, 64 BEST employees have tested positive for the virus, including four who died of the infection.

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Coronavirus Outbreak: After losing job, youth cycles 2,000 km over seven days to reach Odisha

On April 9, Odisha became the first state to extend the 21-day nationwide lockdown in the state till April 30. But two days before the extended lockdown was announced, a 20-year-old youth from Odisha, who was working in Maharashtra's Sangli district before the lockdown returned to his state after cycling for around 2,000 km.

The 20-year-old youth identified as Mahesh Jena left Sangli on April 1 and reached Odisha on April 7 after he cycled around 2,000 km for seven days. Jena took the bold decision when the factory where he worked was closed when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown to combat the spread of the global pandemic.

While speaking to Hindustan Times Jena said, "When the factory was closed we were told that it would not reopen for the next five months. I figured out that if I continued to stay then I would run out of money quickly. So the only option was leaving the place at any cost."

In order to reach Odisha, Jena bought a bicycle for Rs 1200 and spent another Rs 500 to replace its tyre and tube. Jena, who began his journey on April 1 at 4.30 a said that his original plan was to reach his village in 15 days.

Talking about his journey he said, "When I started, I did not want to stop, I rode during the daytime and carried on till 12 in the night. I would then look for a temple or roadside dhaba to sleep." During his journey, Jena ate at roadside dhabas and at places where local police or NGOs would offer free food. During the journey, Jena not only replaced his cycle tyres but his phone was also conked off.

Speaking about how he planned to reach Odisha Jena said, "When I first arrived in Sangli along with my village friend 7 months ago, I had hazy idea about the route. On April 1 when I started from Sangli, I thought I could cover about 120-130 km a day on the cycle and reach home. But when I started, I did not want to stop, I rode during the daytime and carried on till 12 in the night. I would then look for a temple or roadside dhaba to sleep off."

Upon reaching Sholapur, Jena rode towards Hyderabad and then towards Vijayawada. Post which he rode his bicycke to Vishakhapatnam and Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh before entering Odisha at Ganjam. From Ganjam he then cycled to Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and finally Jajpur on April 7 evening.

Upon reaching Jajpur on April 7, Jena was stopped by the police at a check post installed where the police personnel stopped outsiders from entering the district. Talking about Jena, police inspector Ashish Kumar Sahu said, "With a rucksack on his back, he was cycling. After lockdown was announced, the factory in Maharashtra where he worked as a daily labourer was closed leaving him and several others in great misery. He somehow managed to get a rickety bicycle from a local there and started cycling to his home in Odisha."

Following lockdown procedures, Jena was first screened at the district headquarters hospital where he was found without any COVID-19 symptoms. Post which he was sent to a government quarantine centre, where he would be kept in isolation for 14 days.

"I was worried about being picked up by police during my journey. I was stopped twice by police on Andhra-Maharashtra border and Andhra-Odisha border, but I was allowed to go,"recalls Jena, who was stopped by the police on two occasions.

The 20-year-old migrant worker has spent over seven days at the quarantine facility. Speaking about his time at the quarantine centre, Jena said that the meal which comprised of rice and a boiled curry of lentil and vegetables was getting too boring for him. Speaking about the food, he stated, "How long can you eat the same food twice a day? After I am discharged from the quarantine centre, I plan to go back home and have a nice meal. Once the factories reopen, I would again go back."

Lauding the youngster on his inspiring journey, Odisha's Jajpur block development officer Sourav Chakraborty said that it was incredible the way he cycled to his home. "His journey would make a very good script for a movie."

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Coronavirus: Shashi Tharoor appreciates 'great job' by Harsh Vardhan and Health Ministry

New Delhi: Congress Lok Sabha MP leader Shashi Tharoor on Friday appreciated Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan and his colleagues in the ministry for doing "great job" amid COVID-19 outbreak.

"Thanks for the response @drharshvardhan! You &your colleagues are doing a great job in difficult circumstances. Guess this means that it won't be long before Thiruvananthapuram is off the hotspot list, as Kerala has categorised it in a lower tier than the most affected districts," Tharoor tweeted.

Tagging the minister in a tweet earlier, the Congress leader asked why Thiruvananthapuram is listed as a COVID-19 hotspot.

"A bit curious as to why Thiruvananthapuram is listed as a #Covid19 hotspot when it has such a great track record!? Perhaps @MoHFW_INDIA can enlighten us?" Tharoor, the Lok MP from Thiruvananthapuram had tweeted.

Responding to the Congress leader, Harsh Vardhan said there are 170 hotspot districts, 207 non-hotspot & rest non-infected.

India's total number of coronavirus positive cases has climbed to 13,387 including 11,201 active cases, 1,749 cured/discharged/migrated and 437 deaths, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said today.

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COVID-19: British Airways to cut 12,000 jobs amid grounded air travel

British Airways may be forced to cut more than a quarter of its workforce as the coronavirus pandemic takes its toll on one of Europe's biggest airlines. Parent company IAG (ICAGY) said in a statement cited by CNN on Tuesday that the Airways is notifying labour unions about a restructuring program which will affect most employees and "may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them." IAG, which also includes Spanish airline Iberia, said its first-quarter revenues declined by 13 per cent to EUR4.6 billion (USD 5 billion) as it swung to an operating loss of EUR535 million (USD 579 million).

The airline group warned that losses in the second quarter would be "significantly worse" and that it expects that "the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years." The warning echos a similar decision made by airline group Lufthansa (DLAKY), which owns national carriers in Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Belgium. Announcing earlier this month that it was permanently reducing the size of its fleet and shuttering one of its low-cost carriers, Lufthansa said that worldwide demand for air travel will take years to recover from the coronavirus.

"What we are facing as an airline ... is that there is no 'normal' any longer," British Airways CEO Alex Cruz said in a letter to staff that was released to CNN Business. "Yesterday, British Airways flew just a handful of aircraft out of Heathrow. On a normal day, we would fly more than 300," he added. The news comes as flight bans and nationwide lockdowns are threatening to bankrupt airlines around the world. The "mounting financial crisis" facing carriers could cause revenues to tumble by as much as 55 per cent this year, or some USD 314 billion, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Virgin Australia collapsed into administration last week, while sister airline Virgin Atlantic confirmed on Monday that it was on the hunt for outside investors to keep it alive. Virgin Atlantic, which is controlled by Richard Branson's Virgin Group, is also seeking a commercial loan from the British government. Earlier this month, British Airways furloughed 30,000 employees on 80 per cent of their regular monthly pay until the end of May, with the government covering the first PS2,500 (USD 3,100) under its coronavirus job retention program.

But Cruz said the outlook for the aviation sector had worsened in the last few weeks and measures taken to conserve cash were not enough. "There is no government bailout standing by for BA and we cannot expect the taxpayer to offset salaries indefinitely," he added. "Any money we borrow now... will not address the longer-term challenges we face," he wrote.

With no certainty on when lockdowns will lift or when countries will reopen their borders, British Airways has to "reshape" itself, Cruz said. "The scale of this challenge requires substantial change so we are in a competitive and resilient position, not just to address the immediate Covid-19 pandemic, but also to withstand any longer term reductions in customer demand, economic shocks or other events that could affect us," he added.

The collapse in air traffic puts about 6.7 million jobs at risk in Europe, according to IATA, which has called for urgent government action to "preserve air services."

In a similar circumstance, Air France-KLM (AFLYY) further announced on Friday that following "several weeks of discussions" with the French government and banks, it had secured EUR7 billion ($7.6 billion) in loans backed by the French state "to help overcome the crisis and prepare for the future."

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