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CBS orders first seasons of 'Clarice,' 'Equalizer,' 'B Positive' for 2020-21

CBS said it has ordered first seasons of three new shows -- "Clarice," "The Equalizer" and "B Positive" for the 2020-21 television season.




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[ Baby Names ] Open Question : Which boy name do you prefer: Stephen, Thomas, Sean or Ethan?

For Stephen we'd  use the nickname "Stevie" and for Thomas we'd use the nickname "Tommy" if that helps.




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In Search of a New Equilibrium: Immigration Policymaking in the Newest Era of Nativist Populism

In many recent European and U.S. elections, candidates touting nativist populist and anti-immigrant platforms have enjoyed rising support. As populism moves from the fringes into the mainstream, this report takes stock of the economic and social forces driving its rise, the diverse ways populists are influencing immigration policymaking, and what it will take to build a new center around immigration and integration issues.




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Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

While low-skilled workers generally have limited opportunities to legally migrate to the European Union, seasonal migration forms an important exception. This MPI Europe-SVR webinar explores lessons from Europe on managing seasonal worker programs that are responsive to labor market needs but also prioritize the well-being of seasonal workers and interests of receiving countries. 




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A Race Against the Clock: Meeting Seasonal Labor Needs in the Age of COVID-19

As governments have reacted to the coronavirus pandemic by closing borders, seasonal workers have been kept out, raising a pressing question: who is going to produce the food amid agricultural labor shortages? Policymakers in the Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America have responded by seeking to recruit residents, lengthen stays for already present seasonal workers, and find ways to continue admitting foreign seasonal labor, as this commentary explores.




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Five Types of Research, Underexplored until Recently, Could Produce Alzheimer's Treatments

Research into the brain’s protein-disposal systems, electrical activity and three other areas looks promising

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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Searching for a Sense of Meaning in Gifts

What did you get your mother for Mother's Day? Was it beautifully thoughtful, or a rush job you fixed with a few clicks of the mouse and a credit card?




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Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Promising Practices and Ongoing Challenges

Seasonal worker programs in the European Union have a long history, but have yet to find the sweet spot of working for migrants, employers, and countries of destination and origin alike. This policy brief explores some of the challenges common to these programs—drawing on examples in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand—and highlights promising practices.




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Silt Part 1 - land and time under the sea

Warning: The Broomway is unmarked and very hazardous to pedestrians.
 
Warning: Do not approach or touch any object as it may explode and kill you.
 
 
The "Silt" chapter of the book contains some of Macfarlane's most hypnotic writing. It is also the chapter that made me realize that I am not innately the adventurous type of person. Unlike Macfarlane, I'm just not going to walk over unmarked mud paths at low time while running the risk of accidentally being sucked into the undertow and drowned(since he did the walk on a Sunday, he didn't have to worry about being accidentally shot by the Ministry of Defense). But I admire him for doing so.
 
The Broomway is called the deadliest path in Britain. It gets its name from 400 brooms which were used to mark the path to Foulness. When the tide comes in twice a day, other markers are swept away. Until compasses were affordable, people who walked the Broomway carried thread with them. As they passed a broom, they tied the end of the thread to the broom and continued walking. If they felt they had missed the next broom, they could follow the thread back to the previous broom.
 
Macfarlane walked the Broomway with his friend David Quentin, a book dealer turned tax lawyer who prefers to walk barefoot. In the end the mud was bad enough that Macfarlane also walked barefoot to save his sneakers. He left them at their starting point and was able to refind them when they doubled back to the beginning of their path.
 
As Macfarlane walked, he recollected that the land under the Broomway had once been called Doggerland, the home of Megolithic hunter-gatherers. This in turn made him recall the fact that the sea coasts of Norfolk and Suffolk in England are being eroded. Entire towns are being swallowed up by the sea, and houses that were once inland are now being abandoned because they are too close to the shore.
 
Although Macfarlane remembers many historical and geographical facts as he walks, he is also sucked in by the queer atmosphere of the The Broomland. Not entirely land, not entirely water, it exists in a liminal state. To Macfarlane:
 
"These borders do not correspond to national boundaries, and papers and documents are unrequired at them.Their traverse is generally unbiddable, and no reliable map exists of their routes and outlines. They exist even in unfamiliar landscapes: there when you cross a certain watershed, treeline or snowline, or enter rain, storm, or mist, or pass from boulder clay onto sand, or chalk onto greenstone. Such moments are rites of passage that reconfigure local geographies, leaving known placed outlandish or quickened, revealing continents within countries." (p. 78)
 
Space, distance, and direction become distorted because of the light over the sands, the movement of the tides, and the constant erosion of the land. A simple walk over the sea shore is a trek that could easily end in disaster where Macfarlane joins the dead of a drowned country.





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Silt Part 2 - Fighting the sea

On October 29th, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the tri-state area. I was lucky enough to be unaffected as I live on a hill in a central portion of Queens but I had two family members who lost power for a week. I also had co-workers who live in some of the most hard-hit areas of Brooklyn and Queens. Rereading Macfarlane's "Silt" chapter after Sandy was a sobering experience as I wondered what such a walk in parts of Queens or New Jersey would involve.

In the aftermath of Sandy, I've listened to radio interviews with Dutch engineers who have advocated sea gates and houses on stilts. I've read proposals about sea walls.  In the past week, Governor Cuomo has suggested a buyout of homes in areas likely to flooded again in the future. Once the state buys the land, the homes will be demolished and the land left empty. To quote Governor Cuomo, "there are some parcels that Mother Nature owns...She may only visit once every few years...but she owns the parcel and when she comes to visit, she visits."

However, people who live in flooded and devastated areas such as Freeport, Breezy Point or the Rockaways are reluctant to say goodbye to their communities and shore-based lifestyles. Mr. Cuomo accepts that man cannot ultimately defeat nature, which is why, for example, parts of the English coast are crumbling away without the UK spending billions on sea walls or sea gates (although London is protected by the Thames Barrier). Inhabitants of New York and New Jersey seem more willing to fight nature with man-made barriers, artificially-created natural shorelines, and architectural changes such as in the Netherlands. In the end, residents of NYC will have to decide how much money they wish to spend to protect and maintain their current lifestyles and residences.




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Water - the Sea Roads

"Invert the mental map you have of Britain, Ireland, and Western Europe. Turn it inside out. Blank out the land interiors of these countries - consider them featureless, as you might previously have considered the sea. Instead, populate the western and northern waters with paths and tracks:  a travel system that joins port to port, island to island, headland to headland, river mouth to river mouth. The sea has become the land, in that it is now the usual medium of transit: not barrier but corrridor." (p. 93)
 
 
 
Britain as a whole has had a long history of seafaring. Daphne du Maurier decribes in Vanishing Cornwall how Phoenician ships would trade with the earlier inhabitants of Cornwall for tin. The earlier Irish story of Deirdre described how she and her lover fled over the sea to Scotland to escape her unwanted husband, the King Connor Mac Nessa. An Irish monk, St. Brendan, legendarily sailed from Ireland to America on his leather boat. The early Celtic saints frequently sailed on boats to remote islands and founded monasteries. The Vikings invaded Ireland, Scotland, and northern England by boat, and Viking kings ruled England. Even the Norman king, William the Conqueror, was a descendant of the Vikings and invaded using longboats.

In the Water section, Macfarlane sails around the Scottish Hebrides with a seafaring poet named Ian Stephen. Ian, who thinks of and describes himself as a poet, also sails the sea roads in order to support himself and because he genuinely loves doing so. As well as being a good poet (I prefered the excepts of Ian's poems to those of Edward Thomas) he also seems to be a fascinating man. He knows a wide variety of people, is an excellent sailor, and is as knowledgable about the history of the sea roads as he is of sailing on them.

I found this section of the book disappointing as I was more interested in Ian Stephen and his life and writings than I was in Macfarlane's experiences on the boat and on an island. The narrative stalled and became dull when Ian was gone from it. I wished that Macfarlane, who is not a sailor, had focused more on his companion.

To me, the best part of the Water section was when Macfarlane suggested that we look at an atlas in reverse and concentrate only on the parts of the world that are connected by water. As a result, the Hebrides, for example, become no longer remote islands cut off from the rest of the world, but way stations in a busy sea travel hub. Reversing the map shifts the perspective to one that is less land-centric.
 
 
 
 


 





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MPI’s Transatlantic Council on Migration Launches Research Series on Lasting Effects of Mixed Migration Flows

First report examines Canadian challenges & solutions in housing Syrian refugees

WASHINGTON — Four years after the peak of the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis in Europe and amid swelling arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border and elsewhere, new evidence sheds light on how well countries have responded to an unprecedented surge in mixed flows of humanitarian, economic and family migrants.




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As European policymakers take stock of seasonal worker programmes, MPI Europe brief outlines principles to improve these schemes for all parties

Findings will be discussed during 25 February MPI Europe – SVR webinar





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Asparagus with sea butter and rosemary

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, shared by Dan Hunter, chef and owner of Otways' restaurant Brae.




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Bush food native tomato seasoned chicken with plum and chilli dip

chicken thigh fillets, skinless and cut in to finger length strips 100g melted butter 1 tbsp. native tomato spice mix plum and chilli bottled sauce





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Glycated Hemoglobin, Prediabetes, and the Links to Cardiovascular Disease: Data From UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

HbA1c levels are increasingly measured in screening for diabetes; we investigated whether HbA1c may simultaneously improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, using QRISK3, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scoring systems.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

UK Biobank participants without baseline CVD or known diabetes (n = 357,833) were included. Associations of HbA1c with CVD was assessed using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors. Predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index (NRI). A separate analysis was conducted in 16,596 participants with known baseline diabetes.

RESULTS

Incident fatal or nonfatal CVD, as defined in the QRISK3 prediction model, occurred in 12,877 participants over 8.9 years. Of participants, 3.3% (n = 11,665) had prediabetes (42.0–47.9 mmol/mol [6.0–6.4%]) and 0.7% (n = 2,573) had undiagnosed diabetes (≥48.0 mmol/mol [≥6.5%]). In unadjusted models, compared with the reference group (<42.0 mmol/mol [<6.0%]), those with prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes were at higher CVD risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.83 (95% CI 1.69–1.97) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.96–2.60), respectively. After adjustment for classical risk factors, these attenuated to HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.03–1.20) and 1.20 (1.04–1.38), respectively. Adding HbA1c to the QRISK3 CVD risk prediction model (C-index 0.7392) yielded a small improvement in discrimination (C-index increase of 0.0004 [95% CI 0.0001–0.0007]). The NRI showed no improvement. Results were similar for models based on the ACC/AHA and SCORE risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The near twofold higher unadjusted risk for CVD in people with prediabetes is driven mainly by abnormal levels of conventional CVD risk factors. While HbA1c adds minimally to cardiovascular risk prediction, those with prediabetes should have their conventional cardiovascular risk factors appropriately measured and managed.




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Visit-to-Visit HbA1c Variability Is Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Microvascular Complications in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and cardiovascular events and microvascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study analyzed patients from Tayside and Fife in the Scottish Care Information–Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC) who were observable from the diagnosis of diabetes and had at least five HbA1c measurements before the outcomes were evaluated. We used the previously reported HbA1c variability score (HVS), calculated as the percentage of the number of changes in HbA1c >0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) among all HbA1c measurements within an individual. The association between HVS and 10 outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We included 13,111–19,883 patients in the analyses of each outcome. The patients with HVS >60% were associated with elevated risks of all outcomes compared with the lowest quintile (for example, HVS >80 to ≤100 vs. HVS ≥0 to ≤20, hazard ratio 2.38 [95% CI 1.61–3.53] for major adverse cardiovascular events, 2.4 [1.72–3.33] for all-cause mortality, 2.4 [1.13–5.11] for atherosclerotic cardiovascular death, 2.63 [1.81–3.84] for coronary artery disease, 2.04 [1.12–3.73] for ischemic stroke, 3.23 [1.76–5.93] for heart failure, 7.4 [3.84–14.27] for diabetic retinopathy, 3.07 [2.23–4.22] for diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 5.24 [2.61–10.49] for diabetic foot ulcer, and 3.49 [2.47–4.95] for new-onset chronic kidney disease). Four sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for time-weighted average HbA1c, confirmed the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that higher HbA1c variability is associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and microvascular complications of diabetes independently of high HbA1c.




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Impact of Glucose Level on Micro- and Macrovascular Disease in the General Population: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether high glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher have a causal genetic effect on risk of retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy, chronic kidney disease (CKD), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and myocardial infarction (MI; positive control) in the general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study applied observational and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to individual-level data from 117,193 Danish individuals, and validation by two-sample MR analyses on summary-level data from 133,010 individuals from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium (MAGIC), 117,165 from the CKDGen Consortium, and 452,264 from the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Observationally, glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher were associated with high risks of retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, PAD, and MI (all P for trend <0.001). In genetic causal analyses, the risk ratio for a 1 mmol/L higher glucose level was 2.01 (95% CI 1.18–3.41) for retinopathy, 2.15 (1.38–3.35) for neuropathy, 1.58 (1.04–2.40) for diabetic nephropathy, 0.97 (0.84–1.12) for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, 1.19 (0.90–1.58) for PAD, and 1.49 (1.02–2.17) for MI. Summary-level data from the MAGIC, the CKDGen Consortium, and the UK Biobank gave a genetic risk ratio of 4.55 (95% CI 2.26–9.15) for retinopathy, 1.48 (0.83–2.66) for peripheral neuropathy, 0.98 (0.94–1.01) for eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 1.23 (0.57–2.67) for PAD per 1 mmol/L higher glucose level.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher were prospectively associated with a high risk of retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, PAD, and MI. These associations were confirmed in genetic causal analyses for retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, and MI, but they could not be confirmed for PAD and seemed to be refuted for eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2.




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Coronary Artery Disease and Type 2 Diabetes: A Proteomic Study

OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a major challenge in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) provides a detailed anatomic map of the coronary circulation. Proteomics are increasingly used to improve diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms. We hypothesized that the protein panel is differentially associated with T2D and CAD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In CAPIRE (Coronary Atherosclerosis in Outlier Subjects: Protective and Novel Individual Risk Factors Evaluation—a cohort of 528 individuals with no previous cardiovascular event undergoing CCTA), participants were grouped into CAD (clean coronaries) and CAD+ (diffuse lumen narrowing or plaques). Plasma proteins were screened by aptamer analysis. Two-way partial least squares was used to simultaneously rank proteins by diabetes status and CAD.

RESULTS

Though CAD+ was more prevalent among participants with T2D (HbA1c 6.7 ± 1.1%) than those without diabetes (56 vs. 30%, P < 0.0001), CCTA-based atherosclerosis burden did not differ. Of the 20 top-ranking proteins, 15 were associated with both T2D and CAD, and 3 (osteomodulin, cartilage intermediate-layer protein 15, and HTRA1) were selectively associated with T2D only and 2 (epidermal growth factor receptor and contactin-1) with CAD only. Elevated renin and GDF15, and lower adiponectin, were independently associated with both T2D and CAD. In multivariate analysis adjusting for the Framingham risk panel, patients with T2D were "protected" from CAD if female (P = 0.007), younger (P = 0.021), and with lower renin levels (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that 1) CAD severity and quality do not differ between participants with T2D and without diabetes; 2) renin, GDF15, and adiponectin are shared markers by T2D and CAD; 3) several proteins are specifically associated with T2D or CAD; and 4) in T2D, lower renin levels may protect against CAD.




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Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

As the European Union prepares to review the implementation of its Seasonal Workers Directive, as well as countries such as the United Kingdom continue to explore new approaches to selecting seasonal workers, this webinar features findings from a policy brief on the topic. 




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Expert Podcast: Meeting Seasonal Labor Needs in the Age of COVID-19

Governments are facing urgent pandemic-related questions. One of the more pressing ones: Who is going to harvest crops in countries that rely heavily on seasonal foreign workers? In this podcast, MPI experts examine ways in which countries could address labor shortages in agriculture, including recruiting native-born workers and letting already present seasonal workers stay longer. Catch an interesting discussion as border closures have halted the movement of seasonal workers even as crops are approaching harvest in some places.




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Diabetes and Back Pain: Markers of Diabetes Disease Progression Are Associated With Chronic Back Pain

Lorenzo Rinaldo
Jul 1, 2017; 35:126-131
Feature Articles




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Diabetes Management Issues for Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Kerri L. Cavanaugh
Jul 1, 2007; 25:90-97
Feature Articles




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Picking a Theory is Like Building a Boat at Sea


"We are like sailors who on the open sea must reconstruct their ship
 but are never able to start afresh from the bottom." 
Otto Neurath's analogy in the words of Willard V. Quine

Engineers, economists, social planners, security strategists, and others base their plans and decisions on theories. They often argue long and hard over which theory to use. Is it ever right to use a theory that we know is empirically wrong, especially if a true (or truer) theory is available? Why is it so difficult to pick a theory?

Let's consider two introductory examples.

You are an engineer designing a robot. You must calculate the forces needed to achieve specified motions of the robotic arms. You can base these calculations on either of two theories. One theory assumes that an object comes to rest unless a force acts upon it. Let's call this axiom A. The other theory assumes that an object moves at constant speed unless a force acts upon it. Let's call this axiom G. Axiom A agrees with observation: Nothing moves continuously without the exertion of force; an object will come to rest unless you keep pushing it. Axiom G contradicts all observation; no experiment illustrates the perpetual motion postulated by the axiom. If all else is the same, which theory should you choose?

Axiom A is Aristotle's law of inertia, which contributed little to the development of mechanical dynamics. Axiom G is Galileo's law of inertia: one of the most fruitful scientific ideas of all time. Why is an undemonstrable assertion - axiom G - a good starting point for a theory?

Consider another example.

You are an economist designing a market-based policy to induce firms to reduce pollution. You will use an economic theory to choose between policies. One theory assumes that firms face pure competition, meaning that no single firm can influence market prices. Another theory provides agent-based game-theoretic characterization of how firms interact (without colluding) by observing and responding to price behavior of other firms and of consumers.

Pure competition is a stylized idealization (like axiom G). Game theory is much more realistic (like axiom A), but may obscure essential patterns in its massive detail. Which theory should you use?

We will not address the question of how to choose a theory upon which to base a decision. We will focus on the question: why is theory selection so difficult? We will discuss four trade offs.

"Thanks to the negation sign, there are as many truths as falsehoods;
we just can't always be sure which are which." Willard V. Quine

The tension between right and right. The number of possible theories is infinite, and sometimes it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, as suggested by the quote from Quine. As an example, I have a book called A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought by Snowdon, Vane and Wynarczyk. It's a wonderful overview of about a dozen theories developed by leading economic scholars, many of them Nobel Prize Laureates. The theories are all fundamentally different. They use different axioms and concepts and they compete for adoption by economists. These theories have been studied and tested upside down and backwards. However, economic processes are very complex and variable, and the various theories succeed in different ways or in different situations, so the jury is still out. The choice of a theory is no simple matter because many different theories can all seem right in one way or another.

"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." Archilochus

The fox-hedgehog tension. This aphorism by Archilochus metaphorically describes two types of theories (and two types of people). Fox-like theories are comprehensive and include all relevant aspects of the problem. Hedgehog-like theories, in contrast, skip the details and focus on essentials. Axiom A is fox-like because the complications of friction are acknowledged from the start. Axiom G is hedgehog-like because inertial resistance to change is acknowledged but the complications of friction are left for later. It is difficult to choose between these types of theories because it is difficult to balance comprehensiveness against essentialism. On the one hand, all relevant aspects of the problem should be considered. On the other hand, don't get bogged down in endless details. This fox-hedgehog tension can be managed by weighing the context, goals and implications of the decision. We won't expand on this idea since we're not considering how to choose a theory; we're only examining why it's a difficult choice. However, the idea of resolving this tension by goal-directed choice motivates the third tension.

"Beyond this island of meanings which in their own nature are true or false
lies the ocean of meanings to which truth and falsity are irrelevant." John Dewey

The truth-meaning tension. Theories are collections of statements like axioms A and G in our first example. Statements carry meaning, and statements can be either true or false. Truth and meaning are different. For instance, "Archilochus was a Japanese belly dancer" has meaning, but is not true. The quote from Dewey expresses the idea that "meaning" is a broader description of statements than "truth". All true statements mean something, but not all meaningful statements are true. That does not imply, however, that all untrue meaningful statements are false, as we will see.

We know the meanings of words and sentences from experience with language and life. A child learns the meanings of words - chair, mom, love, good, bad - by experience. Meanings are learned by pointing - this is a chair - and also by experiencing what it means to love or to be good or bad.

Truth is a different concept. John Dewey wrote that

"truths are but one class of meanings, namely, those in which a claim to verifiability by their consequences is an intrinsic part of their meaning. Beyond this island of meanings which in their own nature are true or false lies the ocean of meanings to which truth and falsity are irrelevant. We do not inquire whether Greek civilization was true or false, but we are immensely concerned to penetrate its meaning."

A true statement, in Dewey's sense, is one that can be confirmed by experience. Many statements are meaningful, even important and useful, but neither true nor false in this experimental sense. Axiom G is an example.

Our quest is to understand why the selection of a theory is difficult. Part of the challenge derives from the tension between meaning and truth. We select a theory for use in formulating and evaluating a plan or decision. The decision has implications: what would it mean to do this rather than that? Hence it is important that the meaning of the theory fit the context of the decision. Indeed, hedgehogs would say that getting the meaning and implication right is the essence of good decision making.

But what if a relevantly meaningful theory is unprovable or even false? Should we use a theory that is meaningful but not verifiable by experience? Should we use a meaningful theory that is even wrong? This quandary is related to the fox-hedgehog tension because the fox's theory is so full of true statements that its meaning may be obscured, while the hedgehog's bare-bones theory has clear relevance to the decision to be made, but may be either false or too idealized to be tested.

Galileo's axiom of inertia is an idealization that is unsupported by experience because friction can never be avoided. Axiom G assumes conditions that cannot be realized so the axiom can never be tested. Likewise, pure competition is an idealization that is rarely if ever encountered in practice. But these theories capture the essence of many situations. In practical terms, what it means to get the robotic arm from here to there is to apply net forces that overcome Galilean inertia. But actually designing a robot requires considering details of dissipative forces like friction. What it means to be a small business is that the market price of your product is beyond your control. But actually running a business requires following and reacting to prices in the store next door.

It is difficult to choose between a relevantly meaningful but unverifiable theory, and a true theory that is perhaps not quite what we mean.

The knowledge-ignorance tension. Recall that we are discussing theories in the service of decision-making by engineers, social scientists and others. A theory should facilitate the use of our knowledge and understanding. However, in some situations our ignorance is vast and our knowledge will grow. Hence a theory should also account for ignorance and be able to accommodate new knowledge.

Let's take an example from theories of decision. The independence axiom is fundamental in various decision theories, for instance in von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory. It says that one's choices should be independent of irrelevant alternatives. Suppose you are offered the dinner choice between chicken and fish, and you choose chicken. The server returns a few minutes later saying that beef is also available. If you switch your choice from chicken to fish you are violating the independence axiom. You prefer beef less than both chicken and fish, so the beef option shouldn't alter the fish-chicken preference.

But let's suppose that when the server returned and mentioned beef, your physician advised you to reduce your cholesterol intake (so your preference for beef is lowest) which prompted your wife to say that you should eat fish at least twice a week because of vitamins in the oil. So you switch from chicken to fish. Beef is not chosen, but new information that resulted from introducing the irrelevant alternative has altered the chicken-fish preference.

One could argue for the independence axiom by saying that it applies only when all relevant information (like considerations of cholesterol and fish oil) are taken into account. On the other hand, one can argue against the independence axiom by saying that new relevant information quite often surfaces unexpectedly. The difficulty is to judge the extent to which ignorance and the emergence of new knowledge should be central in a decision theory.

Wrapping up. Theories express our knowledge and understanding about the unknown and confusing world. Knowledge begets knowledge. We use knowledge and understanding - that is, theory - in choosing a theory. The process is difficult because it's like building a boat on the open sea as Otto Neurath once said. 




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The State of Sex Research Today, According to 4 Sex Scientists

What’s going on in the world of sex research today? What are some of the biggest controversies and challenges? I recently sat down with a few of my colleagues to discuss these and other interesting questions. In the video below, I chat with Drs. Zhana Vrangalova (New York University), Diana Fleischman (University of Portsmouth), and Geoffrey Miller (University of New Mexico).




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An evolutionary perspective on human health and disease | Lara Durgavich

How does your genetic inheritance, culture and history influence your health? Biological anthropologist Lara Durgavich discusses the field of evolutionary medicine as a gateway to understanding the quirks of human biology -- including why a genetic mutation can sometimes have beneficial effects -- and emphasizes how unraveling your own evolutionary past could glean insights into your current and future health.




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College & Research Libraries – November 2019

The November 2019 issue of College & Research Libraries is now freely available online. Visit the C&RL website for complete contents from 1939 to the present and follow C&RL on Facebook and Twitter for updates and discussion. Note: The November 2013 issue was the final print issue of College & Research Libraries. The journal began an online-only publication model in January 2014. [...]




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College & Research Libraries – January 2020

The January 2020 issue of College & Research Libraries is now freely available online. Visit the C&RL website for complete contents from 1939 to the present and follow C&RL on Facebook and Twitter for updates and discussion. Note: The November 2013 issue was the final print issue of College & Research Libraries. The journal began an online-only publication model [...]




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College & Research Libraries – March 2020

The March 2020 issue of College & Research Libraries is now freely available online. Visit the C&RL website for complete contents from 1939 to the present and followC&RL on Facebook and Twitter for updates and discussion. Note: The November 2013 issue was the final print issue of College & Research Libraries. The journal began an online-only publication model in [...]




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College & Research Libraries – April 2020

The April 2020 special issue of College & Research Libraries, highlighting the projects of ACRL Academic Library Impact research grant recipients, is now freely available online. Visit the C&RL website for complete contents from 1939 to the present and followC&RL on Facebook and Twitter for updates and discussion. Note: The November 2013 issue was the [...]




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College & Research Libraries – May 2020

The May 2020 issue of College & Research Libraries is now freely available online. Visit the C&RL website for complete contents from 1939 to the present and followC&RL on Facebook and Twitter for updates and discussion. Note: The November 2013 issue was the final print issue of College & Research Libraries. The journal began an online-only publication model [...]




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4th Consumer Financial Protection Bureau research conference on consumer finance, Dec 12-13, 2019

SUBMISSION DEADLINE: SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 What: 4th CFPB Research Conference on Consumer Finance When: December 12th-13th, 2019 Where: Catholic University in Washington, DC In December 2019, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will host its fourth research conference on consumer finance at Catholic University in Washington, DC. Information on prior conferences can be found here: […]

The post 4th Consumer Financial Protection Bureau research conference on consumer finance, Dec 12-13, 2019 appeared first on Decision Science News.




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Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM), Barcelona, June 16-18, 2020

SAVE THE DATE ESADE Business School will host the 2020 Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM) conference, in Barcelona, Spain. Dates: Tuesday June 16th – Thursday June 18th, 2020. More information coming, September of 2019. Faculty Organizers Uri Simonsohn (ESADE) Isabelle Engeler (IESE) Jordi Quoidbach (ESADE) Bart de Langhe (ESADE) Johannes Müller-Trede (IESE) Ioannis Evangelidis […]

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57th Edwards Bayesian Research Conference, Feb 27-29, 2020, Fullerton, CA

SUBMISSION DEADLINE DECEMBER 13, 2019 In this conference, investigators present original research on a variety of topics related to judgment and decision making, including but not limited to: Decision making under risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity Intertemporal choice Cognitive models of judgment and decision making Mathematical and statistical methodology for analyzing behavioral data Applications of JDM […]

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Researchers Once Found That People Believe In “Climate Change” More Than “Global Warming” — But Word Choice No Longer Seems To Matter

By Jesse Singal. Study fails to replicate 2011 result, suggesting that word choice matters less as issue has become more politicised.




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The Latest in a Season of Protests: N.C. Teachers Will Rally on Wednesday

Thousands of teachers will head to the state capital on Wednesday to call for a nearly $10,000 raise over four years and an increase to per-pupil spending.




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Teachers union: Stagger school start times, change seating




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Ex-Obama Adviser Who Championed Teacher Evaluations to Seek Senate Seat

Can a Democrat with a record of tying test scores to teacher evaluations win a U.S. Senate seat in Colorado? Mike Johnston, a former Obama campaign adviser, wants to find out.




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Teachers union: Stagger school start times, change seating




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Teachers union: Stagger school start times, change seating




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College football season could be shaped on a school-by-school basis

The NFL wants college football season to proceed as usual in 2020. It may proceed, but there's a good chance it will be very unusual. Via Sports Business Daily, commissioners of two of the Power Five conferences (Kevin Warren of the Big 10 and Greg Sankey of the SEC) have hinted in recent days at [more]




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University of Pittsburgh coaches, city's pro teams donate $800K toward coronavirus vaccine research

The university’s Center for Vaccine Research is working to create a coronavirus vaccine.




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Penei Sewell will grade higher than Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields next season

Too early to just hand him the Heisman Trophy now?




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Emmert: Unlikely all schools will start seasons at same time

NCAA President Mark Emmert says the coronavirus is making it unlikely all schools will be ready to begin competing in college sports at the same time. Emmert appeared with Dr. Brian Hainline, the NCAA's chief medical officer, in an interview shown on the NCAA's official Twitter account Friday night. Major football conference commissioners have stated their goal is for all 130 teams in 10 conferences across 41 states to begin the season at the same time.




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Advanced legal research / presented by Josephine Battiste, Mitchell Chambers.




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Administration issues for winding up the legal practice / presented by Sean Burton CA & Simone Ong CA, CTA, Nexia Edwards Marshall.




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Navigating the maze of research : enhancing nursing and midwifery practice / Sally Borbasi, Debra Jackson and Leah East.




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Dead people don't make jam / Sean Crawley..