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Hey Folks,

I'm running short on time today... but I just wanted to show you this...

This is the latest GFS model run... for next Wednesday. A completely different idea than the GFS model run I showed you yesterday. The model is really backing off on the strength of the Ridge of High Pressure in the Atlantic. As a result, our system would be allowed to come much further East. Yesterday the track was through Western Labrador... which would bring a southerly flow of nice warm air into the Province. However, this further East track would allow colder air to sink into Labrador and wrap into the backside of the system producing a decent shot of... S-N-O-W for some.

The latest GFS and European have also shifted their thinking on this one... whether it's a temporary shift or permanent shift... still remains to be seen.

I'll update you on this tomorrow.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

Well our system moving in next week still has plenty of question marks around it. The main issue is the actual track the system will take... which the models really can't seem to get a handle on.

-Gone seems to be the idea that system will track up through Quebec and Western Labrador. That would have drawn a ton of warm air in from the South bumping up temperatures.... maybe to double digits... with some rain as well. However the models have completely backed off on that theory.

-Now the thinking seems to be either a) A track right through Newfoundland b) A Track just East of Newfoundland or c) A track completely to the Southeast of the Island... missing us completely.

A or B.

This scenario would be messy. Some light Snow mixed with Rain coming in on Tuesday along the Warm front of this system before it backs right in on top of us on Wednesday and into Thursday.
As I mentioned yesterday the more Easterly track would allow Cold air to wrap in behind this system and help produce Snow.
If the GFS run you're looking at above came true... we would be looking a huge shot of Snow for Central and parts of Western Newfoundland.

C.

This would be the most popular pick for many of you I'm sure. The idea here is that the area of High pressure to the Northwest and into Labrador is strong enough to push the system far enough to the Southeast, that is almost completely misses us. We would still see some mixing along the Warm front on Tuesday... but the meat and potatoes would be off shore.

SO WHICH ONE?

So how uncertain are the forecast models right now?

-The GFS American model had the full on Newfoundland Storm idea in it's overnight run. Just 6 hours later it came out with the complete miss scenario. 2 completely different ideas.
-The Canadian model has been bringing the Storm into Newfoundland with on it's last 3 runs.
-The European has been consistently taking the system far enough to the Southeast for a miss.

The good news is... if this system does come in... it's not until Wednesday. So I'll be watching the models closely over the weekend. If I start to see some condenses... I'll drop you a quick line on my facebook and twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/ryan.snoddon
twitter.com/ryansnoddon

Either way, we'll be talking about this on Monday on Here & Now.
Have a great weekend.

Ryan

Hey Folks,

This week will be highlighted by a few different things... here are a few points.

-Temperatures will warm up this week... and stay warm(ish). At or above seasonal temperatures will be on the menu for everyone.
-A system marching in from the Southwest today will draw this warm air in... but will also spread Clouds and Showers into Newfoundland for Tuesday and has already spread Snow into Labrador today and into tonight.
-The West Coast of Newfoundland and even into Central could see some Freezing Rain early tomorrow before the Southerly flow warms temps to 5 or 6 degrees.

***4PM UPDATE- Environment Canada has issued a Freezing Warning for Corner Brook, Deer Lake-Humber Valley and Green Bay-White Bay. Model showing a solid period of F.R. starting overnight and continuing throughout the early morning hours. The drive to work could be very icy for you folks in those areas.
-Although Warnings haven't been issued... I think Gros Morne, Parson's Pond-Hawke's Bay could see some Freezing Rain overnight and early tomorrow as well. Bay of Exploits, GFW and Gander could see some Freezing Rain tomorrow morning as well.

-Looks like the Avalon will stay dry on Tuesday as the High pressure moving off to the East will be still be strong enough to keep the Rain away.

LONG RANGE
-Another System will move in on Wednesday and into Thursday. It looks like it too, will have a strong Southerly flow with it, keeping the Precip as mostly Rain for Newfoundland.
-Having said that, the potential will be there again for Freezing Rain and Ice Pellets in the morning and overnight time periods.
-Labrador looks like Snow to start on Wednesday... but the warm air could push in for you folks as well... with a change over to Rain or at least a mix of both for Thursday and into Friday.

EVEN LONGER RANGE
-The models... specifically the GFS... are flirting with a set-up for the weekend... which would bring a very strong push of warm air into the Province just in time for Easter. The set-up... which is still a question mark... would see an area of High pressure anchored to the Southeast with a Low over Northern Quebec and Labrador. If things work out that way... we could see double digit temps creeping into parts of Newfoundland this weekend.

-It would be nice setup for the holiday weekend... let's keep our fingers crossed for now and I'll keep you posted.

Ryan

The Sermon on the Mount is one of the greatest gifts of scripture to humanity; just ask Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and Leo Tolstoy. In a time when an eye for an eye still seems to hold sway, IDEAS producer Sean Foley explores the logic of Christian non-violence, beginning with Jesus' counsel to 'turn the other cheek.'

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No President nor nominee in US history so openly and brazenly pursued a fascist dictatorship like Donald Trump does today. In fact, many of Trump's own handpicked senior advisers from his first term as President issue urgent warnings today about Trump's drive to dictatorship. For example:

1)    TRUMP'S LONGEST SERVING CHIEF OF STAFF MARINE GENERAL JOHN KELLY

John Kelly enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1970, and was discharged as a sergeant in 1972. Following college graduation in 1976, he returned to the Marines as an infantry officer. Kelly rose to Brigadier General and served in Iraq for the better part of 2 years. Kelly deployed again to Iraq in 2008 after promotion to Major General. Ultimately, in his last military post, from 2012 to 2016 he served as a four-star general leading the United States Southern Command, the unified combatant command responsible for American military operations in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean.

President Trump appointed Kelly the Secretary of Homeland Security in 2017. Trump promoted Kelly to Chief of Staff on July 31, 2017. At the time, Trump called Kelly a "great American" who has "done a spectacular job at Homeland Security" and "been a true star of my administration."

The New York Times published an interview with Kelly, on Oct. 22, 2024, available here. According to General Kelly: “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist. . . . He certainly prefers the dictator approach to government.” Further, the General said that "a very big surprise for him was that we were — those of us who were former generals and certainly people still on active duty — that the commitment, the loyalty was to the Constitution, without question, without second thought. That was a big surprise to him that the generals were not loyal to the boss, in this case him.” Trump apparently failed middle school history.

2)      TRUMP'S HANDPICKED CHAIR OF THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF MARK MILLEY

Four star General Mark Milley became the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on September 30, 2019, and served as the nation's highest ranking military officer for four years until September of 2023.  Milley first became a commissioned officer in 1980 after graduating from Princeton University. As chairman, General Milley acted as the principal military advisor to the President of the United States, the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council and the Homeland Security Council.

When Milley took his oath as Chair, Donald Trump said of his appointee: "In his new role as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Milley will serve as my top military advisor. I have absolute confidence that he will fulfill his duty with the same brilliance and fortitude he has shown throughout his long and very distinguished career."

Today the retired General says of Trump: “He is the most dangerous person ever. [N]ow I realize he’s a total fascist. He is now the most dangerous person to this country, a fascist to the core.” In his retirement speech Milley stated: "“We don’t take an oath to a king, or queen, or tyrant or a dictator, and we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We don’t take an oath to an individual. We take an oath to the Constitution, and we take an oath to the idea that is America, and we’re willing to die to protect it.”

3)    13 FORMER TRUMP OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF THE GENERALS

In the wake of comments from General Kelly (and fully consistent with the comments of General Milley), 13 Trump appointees wrote a letter of support stating:

Donald Trump's disdain for the American military and admiration for dictators like Hitler is rooted in his desire for absolute, unchecked power. This is a man who threw his own Vice President – Mike Pence – at a violent mob in a desperate bid to hold on to power. When Donald Trump says he wants to be a "dictator" on "day one" and deploy the military against American citizens he deems “the enemy from within"--he means it. . . . We did not take the decision to come forward lightly. We are all lifelong Republicans who served our country. However, there are moments in history where it becomes necessary to put country over party. This is one of those moments.

All of these Trump Administration appointees, including many serving in senior positions, worked day-to-day with Trump and witnessed first hand how he governs and how he seeks to accumulate dictatorial powers.

4)     FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JAMES MATTIS

Four star Marine General James Mattis served as Trump's first handpicked Secretary of Defense, from Trump's inauguration through early 2019. Mattis previously served as a Marine officer starting in 1971, and saw combat in Operation Dessert Storm, Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

General Mattis posits that Donald Trump is unfit because he places himself above the Constitution. More specifically, Mattis issued a statement after the J6 insurrection that said:

Today’s violent assault on our Capitol, an effort to subjugate American democracy by mob rule, was fomented by Mr. Trump. His use of the Presidency to destroy trust in our election and to poison our respect for fellow citizens has been enabled by pseudo political leaders whose names will live in infamy as profiles in cowardice. Our Constitution and our Republic will overcome this stain and We the People will come together again in our never-ending effort to form a more perfect Union, while Mr. Trump will deservedly be left a man without a country.

Mattis previously levelled serious objections to Trump's fitness as President due to his misconduct in the summer of 2020, in the wake of protests triggered by the police murder of George Floyd. He stated:

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. 

5)    FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE MARK ESPER 

After graduating from West Point, Mark Esper joined the United States Army and served during the 1990-91 Gulf War as an officer with the 101st Airborne Division. Former President Trump appointed him as the Secretary of Defense and he assumed office on July 19, 2019.

When asked about the former Generals assertions that Trump seeks to impose a dictatorship Esper stated: "It's hard to say that he doesn't. . . .he certainly has those inclinations. And I think it's something we should be wary about." Esper suggests voters look up the term "fascism" and determine on their own if Trump fits the bill. He also praised the Generals for raising the issue and gave them high marks for integrity and honesty.

The Esper interview with CNN is available here.

6)   FORMER VICE PRESIDENT PENCE

In an extraordinary development, Vice President Mike Pence refuses to endorse Donald Trump for President in election 2024. Pence stated that Trump should never sit in the Oval Office again because Trump put himself and his hold on power above the Constitution. The video above explains his position best.

CONCLUSION

The 18 patriots quoted above all say in unison that Donald Trump cannot rule our country again because he cannot adhere to the Constitution. Instead he will seek extra-Constitutional power and try to rule as a dictator. Trump himself promises to rule as a dictator on Day 1. These warnings come from life-long conservatives and from Trump's hand picked officials at the most senior levels of the Trump Administration. They saw Trump at work in the Oval Office daily--they know much more than us. They risk their lives and the lives of their family. We must heed these unprecedented warnings and take Trump at his word. The Constitution today demands that we all follow the distinguished leaders above and act courageously to protect our Great Constitutional Republic. History will judge us on this most important issue. We must not elect a dictator who promises to "terminate" the Constitution for power.

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