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Event Begins: Thursday, November 14, 2024 4:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Institute for Social Research

Join us for a panel discussion featuring:
Vincent Hutchings, Hanes Walton Jr. Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Afroamerican and African Studies and Research Professor, ISR Center for Political Studies
Mara Ostfeld, Research Associate Professor, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and Faculty Associate, ISR Center for Political Studies
Josh Pasek, Professor of Communication and Media and Faculty Associate, ISR Center for Political Studies
Nicholas Valentino, Donald R. Kinder Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Research Professor, ISR Center for Political Studies

Panelists will discuss the outcomes of the 2024 US elections, exploring key trends, voter behavior, and the implications for the future of American politics.

Light refreshments will be served.

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PODGORICA, 4 April 2016 - In response to articles carried in various media outlets, the OSCE Mission to Montenegro would like to clarify its role regarding the upcoming elections. While the Mission has contracted an international senior-level expert to advise the State Election Commission (SEC) on their technical preparations for the parliamentary elections anticipated for this autumn, the Mission does not observe elections.

This expert is currently working with the SEC in developing training materials to be used by election commissioners for the upcoming local government election in Tivat on 17 April.

Through its senior-level technical expert, the Mission will continue its efforts in providing technical assistance to the SEC up to and including the conclusion of parliamentary elections.

The relevant institution within the OSCE responsible for election observation is the Warsaw-based OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR). As per the OSCE/ODIHR's election observation methodology, during the deployment of an election related activity for parliamentary elections, a clear separation of mandates between the OSCE/ODIHR and the OSCE Mission to Montenegro will be maintained.

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The final report by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) on Serbia’s 24 April 2016 early parliamentary elections recommends a comprehensive review of legislation to further improve election process.  

The report, while finding the elections were efficiently administered and held in a competitive environment, spells out key areas that would benefit from such a review, including unclear rules on candidate registration, inadequate regulation of campaign finance, deficiencies and loopholes in dispute resolution mechanisms, an absence of sanctions for some violations and the lack of provisions on election observation.

The report, published on 29 July 2016, notes that, while fundamental freedoms were respected and candidates were able to campaign freely, biased media coverage, undue advantage of incumbency and a blurring of the distinction between state and party activities hindered a level playing field for contestants. To this end, the report recommends specific campaign regulations, including the introduction of ceilings on campaign expenditures and preventing the misuse of administrative resources and the abuse of office.  

In noting the absence of an effective mechanism for monitoring media conduct during the campaign, the report recommends clarifying the competences of the media regulatory body in investigating and sanctioning breaches of legislation in a timely manner.

A review of the election appeals system to guarantee an effective and timely remedy for all complaints, and particularly in cases related to electionday irregularities and election results, is also among the report’s recommendations.

Additional recommendations relate to providing unrestricted access of citizen and international observers to the entire electoral process, including voting, counting and tabulation, and enhancing the transparency of the tabulation of results.

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MINSK, 2 August 2016 – The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) today formally opened an election observation mission for the 11 September parliamentary elections in Belarus. The mission’s deployment follows an official invitation from the Belarus authorities.

The mission is led by Tana de Zulueta and consists of a core team of 10 experts based in Minsk and 38 long-term observers to be deployed in teams of two across the country. In addition, ODIHR will request 400 short-term observers to monitor proceedings on election day. The experts and observers are drawn from 24 countries.

The mission will assess the parliamentary elections for compliance with OSCE commitments and other international standards and obligations for democratic elections, as well as with domestic legislation. Observers will follow the candidate registration process, campaign activities, the work of the election administration and relevant state bodies, implementation of the legal framework and the resolution of election disputes. As part of the observation, the mission will also monitor the media coverage of the campaign.

In the course of its observation, the mission will meet with representatives of relevant authorities and of political parties, as well as with representatives of civil society, the media and the international community.

On election day, observers will monitor the opening of polling stations, voting, the counting of ballots and the tabulation of results. For election day, the mission plans to join efforts with delegations from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

A statement of preliminary findings and conclusions will be issued on the day after the election. A final report on the observation of the entire election process and including recommendations will be published approximately two months after the completion of the election process.

For further information please visit http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/belarus  or contact Ulvi Akhundlu, OSCE/ODIHR Election Adviser, at +375 29 876 3772 (mobile) 

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Serbia’s legal framework for governing elections to the High Judicial Council and the State Prosecutors’ Council is fairly comprehensive although there are a few minor issues with implementing the laws and regulations, partly as a result of gaps in the law. This is the conclusion of a joint Report launched on 24 May 2016 by the OSCE Mission to Serbia and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

The OSCE Mission and ODIHR followed the elections of judges and prosecutors to the High Judicial Council and the State Prosecutors’ Council throughout Serbia in December 2015, in partnership with the Lawyers’ Committee for Human Rights (YUCOM), a local civil society organization. The election processes were conducted without any major irregularities observed.

The Report makes a number of recommendations, largely similar for both the judicial and prosecutorial councils, including amending and further developing the legal framework regarding the election process for the judicial and prosecutors’ councils, the candidates’ nomination process, and procedures for resolving disputes and providing effective remedies.

The findings and recommendations resulting from the election monitoring will help inform the public about the ongoing judicial reform process in Serbia. The relevant state institutions and justice stakeholders will also have an objective assessment to assist them in further strengthening the independence, accountability and efficiency of the Serbian judiciary.

The Report is available at: https://www.osce.org/odihr/242346

The OSCE Mission to Serbia and ODIHR stand ready to continue supporting the legal reform efforts of the Serbian authorities in line with the recommendations of this report and OSCE commitments.

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TBILISI, 27 May 2016 – The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly’s Special Representative on the South Caucasus Kristian Vigenin (MP, Bulgaria), today concluded a two-day visit to Georgia.

The Special Representative met with Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili, Chairman of the Georgian Parliament David Usupashvili, and Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze, as well as Members of the OSCE PA delegation and representatives of various political forces in the country. Vigenin also participated in events commemorating the 25th anniversary of the restoration of Georgia’s independence.

“In just 25 years, Georgia has achieved a great deal, and I look forward to seeing what further progress the next 25 years will bring,” said the Special Representative. He noted that the upcoming OSCE PA's 25th Annual Session to be held in Tbilisi, 1-5 July, is an opportune moment for Georgia to demonstrate its achievements to hundreds of parliamentarians from across the OSCE region.

“With parliamentary elections later this year, this is a sensitive period. Following incidents of violence against opposition leaders a few days ago during the local by-elections, a thorough and transparent investigation is necessary. While it is the government’s responsibility to hold those responsible accountable, I also call on all political forces to act with restraint in the coming months so that the October elections can take place in a calm and peaceful environment,” said the Special Representative, encouraging all efforts aimed at consolidating democratic progress.

Interlocutors welcomed OSCE observation of the parliamentary elections, expected on 8 October.
Vigenin discussed a range of security challenges faced by Georgia, and visited the Administrative Boundary Line in Khurvaleti, where the de facto authorities of South Ossetia have erected barbed wire fences dividing the village.

“The recent killing of a Georgian citizen in Khurcha, at the Administrative Boundary Line, is a reminder of the significant security challenges Georgia continues to face. I condemn this shooting unconditionally, and expect that those responsible will be brought to justice,” said Vigenin.

Reports indicate that on 19 May at the Khurcha-Nabakevi crossing point on the Administrative Boundary Line, armed men crossed from the Abkhaz side of the bridge and carried out the fatal shooting.

The Special Representative’s visit to Georgia follows meetings earlier this week in Armenia. He continues his travels with a visit to Azerbaijan today where high-level meetings are expected.

Vigenin was appointed Special Representative by OSCE PA President Ilkka Kanerva in February 2016. In his mandate, he is tasked with promoting dialogue in all segments of society, in particular at the parliamentary level, in order to encourage reconciliation and rehabilitation with regard to the protracted conflicts in the region.
This week’s visit is his first visit to the region as Special Representative.

Vigenin is a former Foreign Minister of Bulgaria and currently serves as Deputy Head of the OSCE PA’s Bulgarian Delegation.

To watch a recent interview in which he discusses his priorities as Special Representative, please click here. 

For photos of Vigenin's visit to the region, click here.

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The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) on 6 June 2016 released a publication to assist OSCE participating States in better following up on recommendations from final reports by election observation missions.

The Handbook on the Follow-up of Electoral Recommendations – the first tool of its kind for the OSCE region – outlines the key issues when developing and implementing electoral legislation and practice, based on ODIHR’s election observation missions, in line with OSCE commitments and international standards.

"With this handbook, we hope to establish a more systematic approach to follow-up to election observation activities, that is clearer and more consistent and, at the same time, puts emphasis on the implementation of recommendations," said Michael Georg Link, Director of ODIHR. "This handbook can serve as a practical guide for ODIHR in supporting interested participating States in their efforts to follow up on electoral recommendations."

The handbook combines explanations of technical aspects related to follow-up activities with examples of ways ODIHR can help participating States in improving their electoral legislation and processes.

ODIHR developed the handbook as part of its continued efforts to improve its methodology and to increase professionalism in its election observation activities.  All OSCE participating States have committed themselves to promptly follow up on ODIHR election assessments and recommendations.

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ULAANBAATAR, 30 June 2016 – Election day was orderly and followed a competitive campaign. This, however, did not offset the impact of late fundamental changes to election laws on Mongolia’s democratic development, the international observers concluded in a preliminary statement released today. While the June 29 parliamentary elections were highly contested and freedoms of assembly and association were respected, restrictive campaign provisions, coupled with the media’s subservience to political interests, limited impartial and comprehensive information available to voters, the statement says.

“We were pleased to see that voting took place in a calm and peaceful manner. This was a genuinely competitive contest, with high turnout and no certainty as to which party would win. We applaud the fact Mongolia is a functioning democracy,” said Laima Liucija Andrikienė, Head of the European Parliament delegation. “There were, however, some elements which cause concern, including significant last-minute changes to the election laws, which, among other things, prevented 150,000 Mongolian citizens living outside the country, including diplomats, from voting.”

The observers said the consolidation of election legislation into a new law adopted on 25 December 2015, following an inclusive process, was a positive development toward establishing a cohesive electoral framework. However, changes in May 2016 – from a mixed electoral system to a solely majoritarian one, establishing 76 single-mandate constituencies and approving their boundaries – were introduced by parliament in a process that lacked transparency, public consultation and adherence to established criteria, the observers said. This resulted in profound population discrepancies among constituencies.

A total of 498 candidates, including 69 independents, was registered in a process that was largely inclusive and provided voters with a range of political choices. Contrary to OSCE commitments and other international obligations, however, there are disproportionate restrictions on candidacy rights the statement says. While there was general confidence in the accuracy and inclusiveness of the voting register, the May changes to the election laws also effectively disenfranchised 150,000 citizens living abroad for the parliamentary elections.

“For an election to be meaningful, voters first have to be offered a genuine choice, and voters were given that choice here. That choice also has to be between candidates competing on a level playing field and who have equal access to independent media to explain their platforms. In this, there is still work to do,” said Ambassador Audrey Glover, Head of the OSCE/ODIHR long-term election observation mission. “Elections are about voters, and the main problem for voters was understanding the significant last-minute changes to election laws, which affected the rules of the game profoundly and raised questions about political motivation.” 

Despite undue campaign restrictions, the freedoms of assembly and association were respected and candidates were generally able to convey their messages to the electorate. At times the lines were blurred between parties and the administration at both the national and local levels, the observers said. There were multiple instances of alleged vote-buying, which resulted in a number of formal complaints and the deregistration of two candidates.

The GEC received some 50 pre-election complaints. Courts reviewed 21 cases regarding candidate registration, and the police handled more than 1,000 campaign-related complaints. Although legislation clarifies the complaints and appeals process to some extent, a general lack of formalization and transparency in the process within the election administration and the protracted handling of disputes in courts undermined the right to effective remedy.

The media offered extensive election coverage, but abandoned their journalistic role, for the most part simply granting direct access to the politicians. Paid political advertisements and free airtime overshadowed editorial content, and campaign material prepared by political parties was also included in news programming, undercutting the credibility of the media. Consequently, voters were deprived of independent and analytical reporting, the observers said.

In preparation for election day, the General Election Commission met key operational deadlines and fulfilled its mandate. At the same time, the observers said, it lacked transparency and accountability to stakeholders, diminishing trust in the credibility of the process. The testing of vote-counting machines was conducted professionally by the Commission in the presence of stakeholders and, to address concerns over the machines’ accuracy and integrity, the law was amended stipulate that up to 50 per cent of polling stations would be subject to manual recounts. The procedures stipulating the manual re-count, however, were only finalized two days prior to the elections.

All parties and coalitions complied with the 20 per cent gender quota provided for by law, and 26 per cent of contestants were women. There were, however, no women candidates in more than one-third of the constituencies. While there is only one woman member of the General Election Commission, women were better represented in lower-level election commissions. Overall, women remain underrepresented in political life.

Election day proceeded in an orderly manner in most of the country and, while the right to vote was respected, the secrecy of the vote was not consistently ensured. The observers’ assessment of the counting and tabulation of votes was a notable exception to the overall positive assessment of voting, mostly as a result of significant procedural errors or omissions. A number of civil society organizations monitored the pre-election environment, including campaign finance and the media, and issued timely statements highlighting key shortcomings.

For further information, contact:
Thomas Rymer, OSCE/ODIHR, +976 95 14 1635 or +48 609 522 266, thomas.rymer@odihr.pl

Tim Boden, European Parliament, +976 99 976294 or +32 473 844431, timothy.boden@europarl.europa.eu

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The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) issued a final report on 8 July 2016 on the postponed early parliamentary elections in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, which were scheduled for 5 June 2016. The final report assesses whether the electoral process and activities conducted before the postponement of elections were in line with OSCE commitments, other international obligations and standards for democratic elections, and with national legislation.  

While recognizing that 2015 amendments to the Electoral Code attempted to address most of the prior OSCE/ODIHR recommendations, the report notes that late changes negatively affected electoral stakeholders’ understanding of new provisions and impacted their ability to fulfil their functions. In addition, a number of previous recommendations remain to be addressed and legal inconsistencies eliminated. The report recommends conducting a complete review of the Code after consultations between all political stakeholders and relevant civil society organizations.  

As one of the priority recommendations, the report recommends the State Election Commission and the Ministry of Internal Affairs continue the process of updating the voter register through a co-ordinated effort ahead of the next elections. In order to increase the citizens’ confidence in the accuracy of voter registration, it also recommends that the process is transparent and ensures political parties and civil society access for verification.  

Noting that some measures to prevent intimidation and pressure on citizens were taken by authorities, it however mentions that a climate of intimidation persisted, attributed to a fear of retribution existing in state companies and institutions. The report recommends that authorities actively encourage citizens to report any cases of pressure and intimidation and thoroughly investigate such instances. 

While a number of aspects for the media coverage of election campaigns have been detailed in the Electoral Code, a need for continued substantial reform was highlighted. The report suggests amending the legal framework to further clarify the requirements for balanced reporting during the pre-campaign period.

Additional recommendations in the report include deciding on election-related cases within timely deadlines and harmonizing the Electoral Code with the Constitution, which provides for public hearings. It also recommends periodic review of district boundaries by an independent body to ensure the equality of the vote.

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The final report by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) on Serbia’s 24 April 2016 early parliamentary elections recommends a comprehensive review of legislation to further improve election process.  

The report, while finding the elections were efficiently administered and held in a competitive environment, spells out key areas that would benefit from such a review, including unclear rules on candidate registration, inadequate regulation of campaign finance, deficiencies and loopholes in dispute resolution mechanisms, an absence of sanctions for some violations and the lack of provisions on election observation.

The report, published on 29 July 2016, notes that, while fundamental freedoms were respected and candidates were able to campaign freely, biased media coverage, undue advantage of incumbency and a blurring of the distinction between state and party activities hindered a level playing field for contestants. To this end, the report recommends specific campaign regulations, including the introduction of ceilings on campaign expenditures and preventing the misuse of administrative resources and the abuse of office.  

In noting the absence of an effective mechanism for monitoring media conduct during the campaign, the report recommends clarifying the competences of the media regulatory body in investigating and sanctioning breaches of legislation in a timely manner.

A review of the election appeals system to guarantee an effective and timely remedy for all complaints, and particularly in cases related to electionday irregularities and election results, is also among the report’s recommendations.

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MINSK, 2 August 2016 – The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) today formally opened an election observation mission for the 11 September parliamentary elections in Belarus. The mission’s deployment follows an official invitation from the Belarus authorities.

The mission is led by Tana de Zulueta and consists of a core team of 10 experts based in Minsk and 38 long-term observers to be deployed in teams of two across the country. In addition, ODIHR will request 400 short-term observers to monitor proceedings on election day. The experts and observers are drawn from 24 countries.

The mission will assess the parliamentary elections for compliance with OSCE commitments and other international standards and obligations for democratic elections, as well as with domestic legislation. Observers will follow the candidate registration process, campaign activities, the work of the election administration and relevant state bodies, implementation of the legal framework and the resolution of election disputes. As part of the observation, the mission will also monitor the media coverage of the campaign.

In the course of its observation, the mission will meet with representatives of relevant authorities and of political parties, as well as with representatives of civil society, the media and the international community.

On election day, observers will monitor the opening of polling stations, voting, the counting of ballots and the tabulation of results. For election day, the mission plans to join efforts with delegations from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

A statement of preliminary findings and conclusions will be issued on the day after the election. A final report on the observation of the entire election process and including recommendations will be published approximately two months after the completion of the election process.

For further information please visit http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/belarus  or contact Ulvi Akhundlu, OSCE/ODIHR Election Adviser, at +375 29 876 3772 (mobile) 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-politics-trump-cop29.html By David Wallace-Wells When the COP29 climate conference comes to an end next week, it will have concluded without an appearance by President Biden. This is not because Donald Trump just won the election, supplanting the outgoing American head of state on the world stage. The president-elect isn’t attending, either. Neither is Vice President […]

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[The Conversation Africa] Turmoil following presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique has been severe. Preliminary official results from the 2024 elections indicated a landslide win by the ruling party, Frelimo. These results are widely contested, with various reports of irregularities.

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual […]

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As President-elect Donald Trump busily assembles his new administration, Democrat super-lawyer Marc Elias is quietly trying to reverse a key Republican win in a U.S. Senate race.

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Historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman said Tuesday on NewsNation's "Cuomo" that conservative media disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk were why his election prediction that Vice President Harris would win the presidency was incorrect.

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Tickets are available now.
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In the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, retailers report that online sales of emergency contraceptives have soared.

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Sri Lanka votes today in a second national election in as many months with a deeply divided opposition struggling to recover from a crushing defeat at presidential polls.

[SAnews.gov.za] South Africa has reiterated its call for calm and restraint following post-election protests in Mozambique.

Yaounde, Cameroon — An estimated 8 million voters in Chad go to the polls Dec. 29 in legislative, local and district elections. Female leaders and activists, however, say women candidates are being underrepresented. Chadian officials say the legislative elections will mark an end to a three-year transition from military to civilian rule that began when General Mahamat Idriss Deby seized power in April 2021 following the death of his father, long-serving President Idriss Deby Itno. During the transitional period, Deby said he would make sure women, who constitute more than 51% of Chad's population, were nominated in legislative, provincial and district elections. He said Chad would respect its pledges as a signatory to the Maputo Protocol, a commitment by African nations through the African Union to ensure gender equality in political decision making. But activists say women constitute just over one-third of the candidates in this year’s races, in which 180 political parties have nominated more than 8,500 candidates. They say limiting women from elective positions prohibits a majority of the central African nation’s civilians from participating in their country's development and legislating and voting on laws that will improve living conditions. Ahmed Bartchiret, president of ANGE, Chad’s national elections management body, acknowledged the low number of women running for elected office.  He said women constitute less than 35% of the lists of nominees submitted by political parties, including Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement, or MPS, for the Dec. 29 elections. ANGE also acknowledged that some nominations, including those of women, were turned down, but gave no further details. ANGE said anyone whose nomination was rejected can take up the issue through the courts. Women’s groups, including the Association of Indigenous Women and People and the Civil Society Group Against Injustice and Inequality, said in a release that ANGE rejected nomination papers of women candidates who could not pay the roughly $250 application fee. Activists, however, say some political parties are still very reluctant to nominate women, at times claiming that women are not educated enough to occupy political office. Amina Priscille Longoh is Chad's minister of women and child protection. Speaking Wednesday on state television, she noted that in some communities, there is resistance to women seeking higher office.   Longoh said Deby’s strong political will to involve more women in politics is facing opposition from communities, traditional rulers and some clerics, who think that women should stay at home to take care of their husbands and children. She said Deby has ordered that a mass education campaign be carried out to advocate for the respect of women's rights and political participation. Longoh also said many women lack the financial means to run in elections. Some Chadian women have complained that Prime Minister Allamaye Halina, whom Deby appointed on May 23 as part of a new civilian government, has reduced the number of female ministers from 12 to eight. Activists say the government has not respected a resolution of the central African nations’ 2022 Inclusive and Sovereign National Dialogue which states that more women should be appointed to government positions. Female leaders say women constitute the majority of Chad’s population and can have more influence than men in peacekeeping processes.

London — Germany's plan to hold a snap election in February has raised uncertainties over the country's military aid program for Ukraine, as the government has not yet approved its 2025 budget. Berlin is the second biggest donor of weapons and equipment to Kyiv, after the United States. The political turmoil in Europe's biggest economy comes as allies prepare for a second term for President-elect Donald Trump in the United States. Trump has repeatedly questioned U.S. support for Ukraine. February vote Germany's main political parties agreed to hold the election on February 23, following the collapse of the ruling three-party coalition government earlier this month. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due to introduce a confidence motion in parliament next month, which he is expected to lose, paving the way for a general election. Scholz has said he will stand again as the Social Democrats' candidate, although some in the party have questioned whether he is the best choice amid low approval ratings. The chairman of the Social Democrats in the German parliament, Rolf Mützenich, insisted Tuesday that Scholz was the right candidate. "I am firmly convinced that Olaf Scholz has done this country good in the last three years under the most difficult conditions. He has done everything to ensure that the coalition stays together. We have not only experienced the attack by Russian troops on Ukraine, but we have also helped Ukraine. We have also created important economic stabilization effects in Germany," Mützenich told reporters in Berlin. Opposition poll lead However, the main opposition Christian Democrats have a big lead in the polls. The party's leader, Friedrich Merz, argued for a quicker election. "We are basically losing around a month for the election to the next German parliament and thus also for the formation of a government after the next election," Merz told reporters Tuesday. "I just want to remind you that we do not have a federal budget for 2025. We are going into 2025 with this serious omission, with this heavy burden. And that is why it is completely unknown what will become of it," he added. Debt dispute The current government — a coalition between the Social Democrats, the Green party and the Free Democrats — collapsed last week following disagreements over raising new debt to finance the 2025 budget, including the provision of military aid to Ukraine. A so-called debt brake in Germany's constitution restricts the government's ability to take on new loans. Berlin has given Kyiv around $11 billion in weapons and equipment since Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion. The outgoing government had planned to cut that aid to just over $4 billion next year. "Broadly speaking, there was a consensus that supporting Ukraine remains a priority for Germany. The question was just where and how to get and raise the finances for that," said Mattia Nelles, founder of the German-Ukraine Bureau, a political consultancy based in Düsseldorf, who said the February election was "bad timing for Ukraine, bad timing for Europe." 'Leadership vacuum' "It means Germany will be preoccupied with itself for a few months before we have a new government with a hopefully strong mandate — a coalition that could take literally until next summer, or in the worst case, even until autumn. So that is a leadership vacuum in Europe, and that's bad news for everyone involved," Nelles said. The election is due to take place just weeks after the January 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president. "The worst case that many fear in Berlin and Kyiv [is] an incoming Trump administration taking power in January then slashing or ending the Ukraine aid, that will force the German government, the lame duck Scholz government with the current parliament, to increase the funding for Ukraine." "It's important to note that there is still a majority in the old parliament, even before the new parliament is elected, to increase the aid, to take new debt and amend the constitution for that, to take new debt to support Ukraine ... but it's going to be difficult politically to implement that," Nelles said. European security Trump's presidency could have wider implications for European security, including the deployment of U.S. forces and equipment, such as long-range missile systems, says analyst Marina Miron, a defense analyst at Kings College, London. "What else might be reversed is the placement of Tomahawk [U.S. missiles] in Germany. So, we have quite a situation where, let's say, Trump might pursue an anti-globalist agenda and push NATO countries to invest more of their GDP into defense," Miron told VOA. Russian assets Europe froze around $200 billion in Russian assets following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The interest is being used to help fund weapons for Kyiv, while the G7 group of rich nations has implemented a loan plan for Ukraine using the Russian assets as collateral. At a time of fiscal pressures in Europe, some argue it's time to seize the assets entirely and give them to Ukraine. "Europe is sitting on a war chest of 200 billion U.S. dollars of frozen Russian assets," said analyst Mattia Nelles. "And I think the incoming Trump administration will push the Europeans to go further. And that's welcome news from the Ukrainian side — to not just give loans and credit based on frozen Russian assets, but to move to confiscate the assets themselves. And that's certainly something many in Germany also support," he added. Economic pressures Chancellor Scholz oversaw German efforts to end reliance on cheap Russian energy. However, analysts say that has driven inflation and undermined confidence in Europe's biggest economy. Scholz also was seen as reluctant to make bolder decisions on arming Ukraine, including the supply of long-range Taurus missiles, something Kyiv has repeatedly requested. Ukraine may be hoping that a change in leadership in Berlin could unblock more military aid, said Nelles. "We are looking at a new, potentially stronger government, which, if it's led by [Christian Democrat leader] Friedrich Merz, might be taking some of the bolder decisions which Scholz had hesitated to take, including the delivery of Taurus. But everyone hoping for that, I would urge caution," he said. Germany's economic constraints won't disappear with new leadership, said analyst Marina Miron. "Let's assume, for a moment, there is somebody who would drive this policy forward and who would have much more resolve than Scholz. The problem is the German budget. The problem is also that defense contractors in Europe are now affected, as other companies, by the disruption in the global supply chain," she told VOA. Germany is also struggling to overcome decades of underinvestment in its armed forces, something the next government will have to address, Miron added. "The dictates of German strategic culture just go against the grain of the current threat landscape, when it comes to bigger investment in defense," she said.