Broader markets are still largely clinging on to the post-election sentiment this week. However, today will add something different to the mix as we will have the US CPI report in focus. While inflation numbers haven't been too important in recent months, it is one that could still impact trading sentiment. That especially if the disinflation process meets a couple of bumps along the way.

And looking at the expectations for today's report, that might shape up to be the case at least for the October estimates.

Core monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.30% while headline monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.21%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to hold at 3.3% - similar to September. As for headline annual inflation, it is expected to come in a little higher this time at 2.6%.

According to Goldman Sachs, we should be seeing less disinflationary pressures from previously softer components such as airfares and used cars prices. Their estimates show the former increasing by 1.0% this month with the latter up 2.5%. So, that's one part of the argument.

At the balance, the report today should not provide a major reaction if within estimates. I reckon the balance of risks at this point is favouring an outsized reaction on an upside surprise, as compared to a downside miss.

Fed funds futures are showing ~63% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for December and that has been toned down since last week. If there is any upside surprise, the scope for a materially bigger shift in odds there is much wider as compared to a downside miss. So, that's the key consideration now.

Here's Goldman Sachs' playbook in terms of the S&P 500 reaction:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sector
• Trump's tariffs may cause German economy to contract
• If tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output

And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit with a few bumps along the way. All else being equal, the argument for further rate cuts should hold heading into 2025.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-inflation-reduction-act-a-looming-political-earthquake By Mark P. Mills If it weren’t for the election season swamping news coverage, odds are more people would be talking about the revelation that, to quote a Bloomberg headline, “The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion.” In fact, that may understate the reality: the World Bank’s “accounting gap” could be as […]

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: "Congratulations to President Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance. Finally, US leadership has returned to fight the international climate agenda. The U.S. will finally have a president back in the Oval Office who will be pro-science, pro-environment, and fight the demented net zero climate agenda, the Green New Deal, and the UN climate treaty process.

President Trump will also be able to face off against the ridiculous, unsustainable, and unscientific claims that emanate from our most esteemed institutions. America will once again be a beacon of scientific realism regarding climate change and energy policy. Bravo!"  

[This Day] On the back of galloping inflation, regulating expenses, and devaluation of the local currency, a total of 23 leading companies on the Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX), reported a whooping N5.1 trillion operating expenses in the half year (H1) ended June 2024.

While the Biden administration is asking for $773 billion for 2023, that number may not go as far as hoped. DoD says it finished up its planning for 2023 before inflation rates rose and before Russia invaded Ukraine causing oil prices to spike.

The post Republicans want to know the cost of inflation on 2023 Defense budget first appeared on Federal News Network.

Millions of retirees on Social Security will get a 5.9% boost in benefits for 2022

The post Social Security checks getting big boost as inflation rises first appeared on Federal News Network.

If you are planning on retiring soon (this year or next) have you thought of the lifetime impact of long-term inflation on your diet-COLA annuity?

The post Inflation and your retirement date first appeared on Federal News Network.

(The Center Square) – The Phoenix metropolitan area has the highest annual inflation rate in the nation.

(The Center Square) – Among 22 metro areas measured nationwide, Detroit has the second-highest rise in inflation, WalletHub reported.

India's consumer price inflation likely surged to a 14-month high in October, driven by soaring vegetable and edible oil prices. Economists predict inflation hit 5.81%, just below the central bank's 6% tolerance limit. A weak rupee and rising global commodity prices add to inflationary pressures, potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts.

Despite the persistent inflation and sluggish demand, several leading FMCG and retail brands are doubling down on their premiumization strategies, reshaping their approach to appeal to discerning customers.

India's retail inflation rose to 6.21 percent in October. This is a significant increase from September's 5.49 percent. Food prices are the main reason for this surge. This is the first time since August that inflation has gone beyond the Reserve Bank of India's 6 percent limit. The rise in onion prices is a major concern.

The Ministry of Economy and Labour reported a 1.9% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index [CPI] for July 2024. A Government spokesperson said, “Today, the Ministry of Economy and Labour released the Department of Statistics’ July 2024 Consumer Price Index. “In summary, consumers paid 1.9 per cent more in July 2024 than they did […]

1. Wages growth slows faster than expected but still exceeds inflation  ABC News
2. Real wages are growing at highest rate since 2020. But it’s unlikely to last  Sydney Morning Herald
3. SBS On the Money: Wages growth slows but real wages turn positive  SBS News

European stock indexes traded lower in Wednesday's premarket session, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report firmly on investors' radar ahead of its release at 2:30 pm CET. Analysts anticipate ...

European stock indexes traded lower in Tuesday's premarket session, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report firmly on investors' radar ahead of its release at 2:30 pm CET. Analysts anticipate in...

European stocks are expected to open positive territory Wednesday, with global markets focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 36 points higher at 8,056, Germany's DAX up 38 points at 19,081, France's CAC up 11 points at 7,356 and Italy's FTSE MIB up…

Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated on Wednesday that more interest rate cuts could be on the horizon, noting ...

Emergency funding deal would give struggling water company £3bn lifeline Thames Water has been teetering on the brink of collapse since being described as “uninvestible” in March when shareholders refused to pour in more cash. The government has been on standby for nationalisation through a…

Major European stock markets opened mostly lower on Wednesday as investors' main focus shifted to October's inflation figures from the United States, pivotal statistics in shaping the Federal Reserve'...

The landmark 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has committed nearly $400 billion to mitigating climate change. Nine research teams across the U.S, including a Princeton team led by Jesse Jenkins, have now modeled the law's effect on U.S. carbon emissions.

Bond yields spiked aggressively as investors awaited Wednesday's inflation data for October.

Europe's response to the US Inflation Reduction Act 27 March 2023 — 2:00PM TO 3:15PM Anonymous (not verified) 9 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

This event explores the implications of the US Inflation Reduction Act, how Europe can respond and what options the UK has.

While the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has led to an outcry in the EU, member states have different concerns and preferences for how to respond. The European Commission’s proposed ‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’ includes the relaxation of state aid rules to drive funding. But will this lead to a ‘subsidies race’ between the US and EU and is a ‘green trade war’ brewing?  
 
The UK’s response to the IRA has been much more muted than the EU’s. But caught between US subsidies and EU subsidies, can the UK compete and create an independent response to the IRA? And what steps can be taken to facilitate global cooperation and to make trade work for the green transition?

Dr Martin Porter, Executive Chair at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, will kick off the discussion with short remarks followed by an interactive discussion among all participants

This discussion is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. We would like to take this opportunity to thank our founding partner and supporting partners for their generous support of the forum.  

There might be a need for an economic theory to accurately forecast inflation.

The rise in prices under the Biden administration proved fatal for Kamala Harris’s election hopes.

There was positive rental growth in all provinces despite tenants feeling the pinch due to challenging economic conditions, according to the latest Payprop Rental Index.

Shares of Bidcorp, the food services giant founded by Brian Joffe, jumped almost 5% on Tuesday after it reported a record revenue performance for the four months to end October, including an "excellent" result from SA.

Argentine inflation has dipped to 193%, landing below the 200% threshold for the first time in close to a year, data from statistics agency INDEC showed on Tuesday, as President Javier Milei's dramatic austerity agenda bears fruit.

1. Inflation in nearly half of major states outgrows India's Oct CPI; price pressure steepest in Chhattisgarh  Moneycontrol
2. Retail inflation surges to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October  The Times of India
3. If we exclude vegetable prices, CPI inflation remains in RBI's range: UBI research  The Economic Times
4. Rising food prices are likely to push back beginning of rate cutting cycle  The Indian Express
5. India confident of reaching USD 100 billion trade volume with Russia ahead of 2030 timeline: S Jaishankar  Telegraph India

As disease rates rise and medical technology develops, treatment costs climb. It’s essential to understand that medical costs are not exclusively associated with hospitals. The cost of prescription drugs, diagnostic procedures, ambulance and operating room fees, consultations with doctors, and other costs are also constantly increasing. All of them could put a big strain on […]

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Argentina’s inflation slowed to 2.7% in October, the lowest level in three years in a win for the libertarian government of President Javier Milei who came to power almost a year ago promising to pull Argentina out of a dire economic crisis. Argentina’s statistics agency on Tuesday reported October’s number. In September, inflation was 3.5%. READ: Recession-hit Argentina gripped by ‘Ponzidemia’ On an annual basis, inflation in October was 193% compared to 209% reported in September. Milei has trumpeted falling prices in recent months as a victory in his fight against Argentina’s worst economic crisis in […]...

Keep on reading: Argentina's monthly inflation drops to 2.7%, lowest level in 3 years

1. India's CPI Inflation In October 2024 Jumps To 14-Month High Of 6.2%; IIP Grows 3.1% In September  News18
2. Retail inflation surges to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October  The Times of India
3. Retail inflation jumps to 14-month high of 6.21 per cent, breaches RBI tolerance level  Telegraph India
4. Rising food prices are likely to push back beginning of rate cutting cycle  The Indian Express
5. Rate cut unlikely even in February, inflation to dip January onwards: SBI research  The Economic Times

British wage growth excluding bonuses fell in the third quarter to its lowest in over two years, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially boosting the Bank of England’s confidence that inflation pressures will continue to ease. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 4.8 per cent higher in the three months to the end of September […]

Asia and the Pacific’s developing economies are projected to grow 5.0% this year on the back of resilient domestic demand and strong export growth, particularly in the electronics sector.

Title: Will Inflation Cut Back on Your Health Care?
Category: Health News
Created: 8/8/2022 12:00:00 AM
Last Editorial Review: 8/8/2022 12:00:00 AM

Title: Here's How the Inflation Reduction Act Will Lower the Cost of Health Care
Category: Health News
Created: 8/17/2022 12:00:00 AM
Last Editorial Review: 8/17/2022 12:00:00 AM

October marked the "biggest" sales month for supermarkets in the UK so far despite food price hikes.

This week, I’m rerunning some popular posts while we put the finishing touches on DCI’s new 2024-25 Economic Report on Pharmaceutical Wholesalers and Specialty Distributors.

The article below highlights an underappreciated consequence of the Inflation Reduction Act’s inflation rebates for Medicare Part B drugs. Last night, I posted an updated analysis showing that the volatility in seniors' coinsurance rates continues. For the fourther quarter of 2024, coinsurance rates for 51 drugs increased, while rates for only 19 drugs decreased. What's more, rates for 17 drugs returned to their original 20% level. Click here to see our original post from May 2024.

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Contrary to what you may have heard, the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) inflation rebates for Medicare Part B drugs do not always save money for seniors.

As we document below, a growing share of Part B drugs have inflation-adjusted coinsurance rates that have been increasing, not declining. In many cases, the coinsurance rate declines only briefly before rebounding back to the standard 20% rate. What’s more, these fluctuations have triggered huge jumps in patients’ out-of-pocket obligations for some drugs—even when a drug’s costs were falling.

Chalk off these coinsurance surprises to yet another unintended consequence of the IRA. Seniors who are expecting to see costs drop may find they are instead being taken for a rollercoaster ride.
Read more »

Jun 5, 2024

Harvard Kennedy School hosted Leah Stokes, Anton Conk Associate Professor of Environmental Politics at UC Santa Barbara, to discuss how the historic Inflation Reduction Act succeeded where so many previous climate bills failed.

Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings on Monday forecast that inflation in India would touch Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium term target range of two-six per cent by end 2018.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said that although the central bank had shifted towards a softer neutral monetary policy stance to spur growth, this did not mean that an interest rate cut would happen immediately

India's retail price inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 6.21 per cent in October as higher prices of food items such as vegetables spiked during the month, figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Tuesday showed.

1. Retail inflation surges to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October  The Times of India
2. Retail inflation jumps to 14-month high of 6.21 per cent, breaches RBI tolerance level  Telegraph India
3. Rising food prices are likely to push back beginning of rate cutting cycle  The Indian Express
4. Consumer inflation at 14-month high of 6.2%  Hindustan Times
5. Rate cut unlikely even in February, inflation to dip January onwards: SBI research  The Economic Times

During President Biden’s address to the nation, he garnered bipartisan applause as he warned Russia that more coordinated measures were coming in response to its invasion of Ukraine. He also laid out ways to help tame inflation. Photo: Pool/Reuters