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New Insulin Glargine 300 Units/mL Versus Glargine 100 Units/mL in People With Type 2 Diabetes Using Oral Agents and Basal Insulin: Glucose Control and Hypoglycemia in a 6-Month Randomized Controlled Trial (EDITION 2)

Hannele Yki-Järvinen
Dec 1, 2014; 37:3235-3243
Emerging Technologies and Therapeutics




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Lipoprotein Physiology in Nondiabetic and Diabetic States: Relationship to Atherogenesis

Henry N Ginsberg
Sep 1, 1991; 14:839-855
Diet and Diabetes




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Globalization of Diabetes: The role of diet, lifestyle, and genes

Frank B. Hu
Jun 1, 2011; 34:1249-1257
Kelly West Award Lecture




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Former intelligence chief Mustafa al-Kadhini named Iraqi prime minister

Former intelligence chief Mustafa al-Kadhini was named prime minister of Iraq on Thursday, after five months of political instability in the Middle Eastern nation.




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Northrop Grumman, Raytheon partner for Next Generation Interceptor bid

Northrop Grumman Corp. and Raytheon Missiles and Defense will partner to develop the Defense Department's next missile interceptor, they announced on Monday.




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Coast Guard names Rear Adm. Melissa Bert as first female judge advocate general

The U.S. Coast Guard named Rear Adm. Melissa Bert as its first female judge advocate and chief counsel, its top legal position.




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Globalization of Diabetes: The role of diet, lifestyle, and genes

Frank B. Hu
Jun 1, 2011; 34:1249-1257
Kelly West Award Lecture




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Genetic Discrimination Between LADA and Childhood-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Within the MHC

OBJECTIVE

The MHC region harbors the strongest loci for latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA); however, the strength of association is likely attenuated compared with that for childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. In this study, we recapitulate independent effects in the MHC class I region in a population with type 1 diabetes and then determine whether such conditioning in LADA yields potential genetic discriminators between the two subtypes within this region.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Chromosome 6 was imputed using SNP2HLA, with conditional analysis performed in type 1 diabetes case subjects (n = 1,985) and control subjects (n = 2,219). The same approach was applied to a LADA cohort (n = 1,428) using population-based control subjects (n = 2,850) and in a separate replication cohort (656 type 1 diabetes case, 823 LADA case, and 3,218 control subjects).

RESULTS

The strongest associations in the MHC class II region (rs3957146, β [SE] = 1.44 [0.05]), as well as the independent effect of MHC class I genes, on type 1 diabetes risk, particularly HLA-B*39 (β [SE] = 1.36 [0.17]), were confirmed. The conditional analysis in LADA versus control subjects showed significant association in the MHC class II region (rs3957146, β [SE] = 1.14 [0.06]); however, we did not observe significant independent effects of MHC class I alleles in LADA.

CONCLUSIONS

In LADA, the independent effects of MHC class I observed in type 1 diabetes were not observed after conditioning on the leading MHC class II associations, suggesting that the MHC class I association may be a genetic discriminator between LADA and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.




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Effects of Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy on Insulin Sensitivity and Incretin Responses in Transgender People

OBJECTIVE

The long-term influences of sex hormone administration on insulin sensitivity and incretin hormones are controversial. We investigated these effects in 35 transgender men (TM) and 55 transgender women (TW) from the European Network for the Investigation of Gender Incongruence (ENIGI) study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Before and after 1 year of gender-affirming hormone therapy, body composition and oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) were evaluated.

RESULTS

In TM, body weight (2.8 ± 1.0 kg; P < 0.01), fat-free mass (FFM) (3.1 ± 0.9 kg; P < 0.01), and waist-to-hip ratio (–0.03 ± 0.01; P < 0.01) increased. Fasting insulin (–1.4 ± 0.8 mU/L; P = 0.08) and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (2.2 ± 0.3 vs. 1.8 ± 0.2; P = 0.06) tended to decrease, whereas fasting glucose (–1.6 ± 1.6 mg/dL), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) (–1.8 ± 1.0 pmol/L), and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) (–0.2 ± 1.1 pmol/L) were statistically unchanged. Post-OGTT areas under the curve (AUCs) for GIP (2,068 ± 1,134 vs. 2,645 ± 1,248 [pmol/L] x min; P < 0.01) and GLP-1 (2,352 ± 796 vs. 2,712 ± 1,015 [pmol/L] x min; P < 0.01) increased. In TW, body weight tended to increase (1.4 ± 0.8 kg; P = 0.07) with decreasing FFM (–2.3 ± 0.4 kg; P < 0.01) and waist-to-hip ratio (–0.03 ± 0.01; P < 0.01). Insulin (3.4 ± 0.8 mU/L; P < 0.01) and HOMA-IR (1.7 ± 0.1 vs. 2.4 ± 0.2; P < 0.01) rose, fasting GIP (–1.4 ± 0.8 pmol/L; P < 0.01) and AUC GIP dropped (2,524 ± 178 vs. 1,911 ± 162 [pmol/L] x min; P < 0.01), but fasting glucose (–0.3 ± 1.4 mg/dL), GLP-1 (1.3 ± 0.8 pmol/L), and AUC GLP-1 (2,956 ± 180 vs. 2,864 ± 93 [pmol/L] x min) remained unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of transgender persons, insulin sensitivity but also post-OGTT incretin responses tend to increase with masculinization and to decrease with feminization.




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A Multinational, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Cyclical Topical Wound Oxygen (TWO2) Therapy in the Treatment of Chronic Diabetic Foot Ulcers: The TWO2 Study

OBJECTIVE

Topical oxygen has been used for the treatment of chronic wounds for more than 50 years. Its effectiveness remains disputed due to the limited number of robust high-quality investigations. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of multimodality cyclical pressure Topical Wound Oxygen (TWO2) home care therapy in healing refractory diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) that had failed to heal with standard of care (SOC) alone.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients with diabetes and chronic DFUs were randomized (double-blind) to either active TWO2 therapy or sham control therapy—both in addition to optimal SOC. The primary outcome was the percentage of ulcers in each group achieving 100% healing at 12 weeks. A group sequential design was used for the study with three predetermined analyses and hard stopping rules once 73, 146, and ultimately 220 patients completed the 12-week treatment phase.

RESULTS

At the first analysis point, the active TWO2 arm was found to be superior to the sham arm, with a closure rate of 41.7% compared with 13.5%. This difference in outcome produced an odds ratio (OR) of 4.57 (97.8% CI 1.19, 17.57), P = 0.010. After adjustment for University of Texas Classification (UTC) ulcer grade, the OR increased to 6.00 (97.8% CI 1.44, 24.93), P = 0.004. Cox proportional hazards modeling, also after adjustment for UTC grade, demonstrated >4.5 times the likelihood to heal DFUs over 12 weeks compared with the sham arm with a hazard ratio of 4.66 (97.8% CI 1.36, 15.98), P = 0.004. At 12 months postenrollment, 56% of active arm ulcers were closed compared with 27% of the sham arm ulcers (P = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

This sham-controlled, double-blind randomized controlled trial demonstrates that, at both 12 weeks and 12 months, adjunctive cyclical pressurized TWO2 therapy was superior in healing chronic DFUs compared with optimal SOC alone.




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American Institute of Dental Public Health mentors next generation of service-oriented dentists

Dr. David P. Cappelli, Ph.D., acknowledges that as providers, we don’t often understand difficulties that some patients face to receive needed dental care.




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Study: Dental fluorosis generally less noticeable over time

Results from a University of Iowa College of Dentistry study suggest that mild and moderate dental fluorosis is generally less noticeable over time, validating the beliefs of some supporters of community water fluoridation that there have been overestimates of fluorosis prevalence made by anti-fluoridation activists.




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IADR, AADR cancel general session in light of coronavirus

The International Association for Dental Research and American Association for Dental Research have canceled their general session scheduled for March 18-21 in Washington, D.C., in light of the coronavirus disease outbreak.




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ADA develops guidance on dental emergency, nonemergency care

The ADA provided its members and their patients detailed guidance on March 18 on what to consider dental emergencies and nonemergencies dental care as part of an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, and alleviate the burden on hospital and emergency departments.




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ADA urges CDC to provide ‘immediate guidance’ on protecting dental patients, staff from COVID-19 during emergency treatments

The American Dental Association is urging the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide immediate guidance on the best way to protect dental patients and staff from the transmission of COVID-19 during emergency and urgent care situations.




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ADA releases interim guidance on minimizing COVID-19 transmission risk when treating dental emergencies

The American Dental Association has released interim guidance for dentists on how to minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission before, during and after treating dental emergencies.




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North Carolina interactive map launches to help public find emergency dental treatment during pandemic

A North Carolina oral health coalition, in collaboration with multiple state partners, has developed an interactive map to help guide the public to sites where emergency dental services are available throughout the Tar Heel State both during and after the COVID-19 outbreak.




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Oregon Dental Association dentists, volunteers donate PPE to help emergency relief

Oregon Dental Association dentists, volunteers donate more than 600,000 pieces of PPE to help emergency relief efforts




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American College of Emergency Physicians endorses ADA's antibiotics guideline

The American College of Emergency Physicians has endorsed the American Dental Association's clinical practice guideline on the use of antibiotics for the management of pulpal- and periapical-related pain and swelling.




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Agencies submit final rule extending ERISA deadlines during pandemic

The U.S. Department of Labor said April 28 that it is extending the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 filing deadlines for certain notice and disclosure requirements in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.




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Study: Opioid overdose 14 times more likely in general public than cancer survivors

Cancer survivors have a lower risk for a fatal opioid overdose -- from prescription pain medications or illegal drugs -- than those without the disease, an analysis published Thursday by JAMA Oncology shows.




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Exploring the Potential of Two-Generation Strategies in Refugee Integration

On this webinar, MPI researchers and Utah and Colorado refugee coordinators explore promising practices to better serve refugee families, including education services for refugee youth, innovative efforts to secure better jobs for adult refugees, and other services designed to aid integration over time. They also discuss the potential for implementing and supporting two-generation approaches to refugee integration at a time when the system’s funding and capacity are in peril.  




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Wilson Disease With Novel Compound Heterozygote Mutations in the ATP7B Gene Presenting With Severe Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between ATP7B mutations and diabetes in Wilson disease (WD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 21 exons and exon-intron boundaries of ATP7B were identified by Sanger sequencing.

RESULTS

Two novel compound heterozygous mutations (c.525 dupA/ Val176Serfs*28 and c.2930 C>T/ p.Thr977Met) were detected in ATP7B. After d-penicillamine (D-PCA) therapy, serum aminotransferase and ceruloplasmin levels in this patient were normalized and levels of HbA1c decreased. However, when the patient ceased to use D-PCA due to an itchy skin, serum levels of fasting blood glucose increased. Dimercaptosuccinic acid capsules were prescribed and memory recovered to some extent, which was accompanied by decreased insulin dosage for glucose control by 5 units.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of diabetes caused by WD.




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Early Metabolic Features of Genetic Liability to Type 2 Diabetes: Cohort Study With Repeated Metabolomics Across Early Life

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes develops for many years before diagnosis. We aimed to reveal early metabolic features characterizing liability to adult disease by examining genetic liability to adult type 2 diabetes in relation to metabolomic traits across early life.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Up to 4,761 offspring from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were studied. Linear models were used to examine effects of a genetic risk score (162 variants) for adult type 2 diabetes on 229 metabolomic traits (lipoprotein subclass–specific cholesterol and triglycerides, amino acids, glycoprotein acetyls, others) measured at age 8 years, 16 years, 18 years, and 25 years. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was also conducted using genome-wide association study data on metabolomic traits in an independent sample of 24,925 adults.

RESULTS

At age 8 years, associations were most evident for type 2 diabetes liability (per SD-higher) with lower lipids in HDL subtypes (e.g., –0.03 SD, 95% CI –0.06, –0.003 for total lipids in very large HDL). At 16 years, associations were stronger with preglycemic traits, including citrate and with glycoprotein acetyls (0.05 SD, 95% CI 0.01, 0.08), and at 18 years, associations were stronger with branched chain amino acids. At 25 years, associations had strengthened with VLDL lipids and remained consistent with previously altered traits, including HDL lipids. Two-sample MR estimates among adults indicated persistent patterns of effect of disease liability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support perturbed HDL lipid metabolism as one of the earliest features of type 2 diabetes liability, alongside higher branched-chain amino acid and inflammatory levels. Several features are apparent in childhood as early as age 8 years, decades before the clinical onset of disease.




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DNA genealogy leads police to James E. Zastawnik in 1987 killing of Ohio teen Barbara Blatnik

Cleveland police say they have used DNA research to solve the 33-year-old strangling of a teenage girl, and arrest her killer.




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Smarter hardware to make artificial intelligence more energy efficient

Artificial intelligence requires a lot of energy. Simply solving a puzzle can require the equivalent of the energy produced by three nuclear plants in a single hour.




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Researchers find honey bee gene that causes virgin birth

The Cape honey bee, a subspecies found along the southern coast of South Africa, reproduces without having sex. Now, scientists have identified the gene responsible for the bee's virgin births.




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A House Divided: Divergent Views in Congress Over Immigration Reform - A Video Chat

MPI experts participate in a video chat shortly after the Migration Policy Institute released an analysis comparing the major provisions of the Senate bill to those of the individual House bills considered to date in House committees. 




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Sarah Silverman, Seth Rogen animated series coming to HBO Max

HBO Max announced Friday that it has ordered "Santa Inc.," an adult-oriented animated series featuring the voices of Sarah Silverman and Seth Rogen.





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[ Cell Phones & Plans ] Open Question : What is the closest android equivalent to the 1st generation iPhone SE?

I am torn, I know it is time to upgrade my phone, but I don't know whether to upgrade to just accept the larger phone size and go with the 2nd gen SE or go with an android. I'd be interested to know what the closest equivalent android device there is to the 1st gen SE. I am open to a bigger screen size, but not a bigger phone. So, if there was an andriod that was all screen on the front, but was similar size to the original SE, I would be open to that.




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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : Christians, why do some people keep lying by saying trans been using other Gender's room for long time but that lie?

i even got this from pro trans page that say they have laws banning men from women's room & trans aka GD was put into mad house, & even then there been alot of time where rapists &perverted freaks been using other Gender's bath room too doesn't make it right, they go to prison if they find out




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[ Politics ] Open Question : Trump supporters: Do you watch Disney and Pixar movies even though they carry hidden liberal agendas?

Do you let your kids watch Disney and Pixar movies? They're all created by liberals.




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Once Homogenous, Tiny Iceland Opens Its Doors to Immigrants

A small, isolated country, Iceland has been home to a largely homogenous population for much of its history. But in recent years, a booming economy and expanding tourism sector have drawn rising numbers of immigrants to the island nation. This article explores Iceland's balancing act of maintaining economic growth through immigration while preserving its culture and language.




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Longevity Gene May Protect against a Notorious Alzheimer's Risk Gene

Some nominally high-risk individuals may have a lower chance of developing dementia than once thought

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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The Insurgency's Psychological Component

At the core of this fall's debate over Iraq lies one simple question: Can an increased number of U.S. troops subdue the Iraqi insurgency?




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Promoting Refugee Integration in Challenging Times: The Potential of Two-Generation Strategies

At a time when the U.S. refugee resettlement system is facing unprecedented challenges, innovative and cost-effective tools for supporting refugee integration are in demand. This report explores how a two-generation approach to service provision could help all members of refugee families—from young children to working-age adults and the elderly—find their footing.




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Genetic Susceptibility Determines {beta}-Cell Function and Fasting Glycemia Trajectories Throughout Childhood: A 12-Year Cohort Study (EarlyBird 76)

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that childhood prediabetes may develop prior to obesity and be associated with relative insulin deficiency. We proposed that the insulin-deficient phenotype is genetically determined and tested this hypothesis by longitudinal modeling of insulin and glucose traits with diabetes risk genotypes in the EarlyBird cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

EarlyBird is a nonintervention prospective cohort study that recruited 307 healthy U.K. children at 5 years of age and followed them throughout childhood. We genotyped 121 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetes risk, identified in the adult population. Association of SNPs with fasting insulin and glucose and HOMA indices of insulin resistance and β-cell function, available from 5 to 16 years of age, were tested. Association analysis with hormones was performed on selected SNPs.

RESULTS

Several candidate loci influenced the course of glycemic and insulin traits, including rs780094 (GCKR), rs4457053 (ZBED3), rs11257655 (CDC123), rs12779790 (CDC123 and CAMK1D), rs1111875 (HHEX), rs7178572 (HMG20A), rs9787485 (NRG3), and rs1535500 (KCNK16). Some of these SNPs interacted with age, the growth hormone–IGF-1 axis, and adrenal and sex steroid activity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that genetic markers influence both elevated and average courses of glycemic traits and β-cell function in children during puberty independently of BMI are a significant step toward early identification of children at risk for diabetes. These findings build on our previous observations that pancreatic β-cell defects predate insulin resistance in the onset of prediabetes. Understanding the mechanisms of interactions among genetic factors, puberty, and weight gain would allow the development of new and earlier disease-management strategies in children.




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Impact of Glucose Level on Micro- and Macrovascular Disease in the General Population: A Mendelian Randomization Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether high glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher have a causal genetic effect on risk of retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy, chronic kidney disease (CKD), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and myocardial infarction (MI; positive control) in the general population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study applied observational and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to individual-level data from 117,193 Danish individuals, and validation by two-sample MR analyses on summary-level data from 133,010 individuals from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium (MAGIC), 117,165 from the CKDGen Consortium, and 452,264 from the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Observationally, glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher were associated with high risks of retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, PAD, and MI (all P for trend <0.001). In genetic causal analyses, the risk ratio for a 1 mmol/L higher glucose level was 2.01 (95% CI 1.18–3.41) for retinopathy, 2.15 (1.38–3.35) for neuropathy, 1.58 (1.04–2.40) for diabetic nephropathy, 0.97 (0.84–1.12) for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, 1.19 (0.90–1.58) for PAD, and 1.49 (1.02–2.17) for MI. Summary-level data from the MAGIC, the CKDGen Consortium, and the UK Biobank gave a genetic risk ratio of 4.55 (95% CI 2.26–9.15) for retinopathy, 1.48 (0.83–2.66) for peripheral neuropathy, 0.98 (0.94–1.01) for eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 1.23 (0.57–2.67) for PAD per 1 mmol/L higher glucose level.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucose levels in the normoglycemic range and higher were prospectively associated with a high risk of retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, PAD, and MI. These associations were confirmed in genetic causal analyses for retinopathy, neuropathy, diabetic nephropathy, and MI, but they could not be confirmed for PAD and seemed to be refuted for eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2.




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Epigenetic Link Between Statin Therapy and Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of epigenetics in statins’ diabetogenic effect comparing DNA methylation (DNAm) between statin users and nonusers in an epigenome-wide association study in blood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Five cohort studies’ participants (n = 8,270) were classified as statin users when they were on statin therapy at the time of DNAm assessment with Illumina 450K or EPIC array or noncurrent users otherwise. Associations of DNAm with various outcomes like incident type 2 diabetes, plasma glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance (HOMA of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]) as well as with gene expression were investigated.

RESULTS

Discovery (n = 6,820) and replication (n = 1,450) phases associated five DNAm sites with statin use: cg17901584 (1.12 x 10–25 [DHCR24]), cg10177197 (3.94 x 10–08 [DHCR24]), cg06500161 (2.67 x 10–23 [ABCG1]), cg27243685 (6.01 x 10–09 [ABCG1]), and cg05119988 (7.26 x 10–12 [SC4MOL]). Two sites were associated with at least one glycemic trait or type 2 diabetes. Higher cg06500161 methylation was associated with higher fasting glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, and type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.34 [95% CI 1.22, 1.47]). Mediation analyses suggested that ABCG1 methylation partially mediates the effect of statins on high insulin and HOMA-IR. Gene expression analyses showed that statin exposure and ABCG1 methylation were associated with ABCG1 downregulation, suggesting epigenetic regulation of ABCG1 expression. Further, outcomes insulin and HOMA-IR were significantly associated with ABCG1 expression.

CONCLUSIONS

This study sheds light on potential mechanisms linking statins with type 2 diabetes risk, providing evidence on DNAm partially mediating statins’ effects on insulin traits. Further efforts shall disentangle the molecular mechanisms through which statins may induce DNAm changes, potentially leading to ABCG1 epigenetic regulation.




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In the Age of Trump: Populist Backlash and Progressive Resistance Create Divergent State Immigrant Integration Contexts

As long-simmering passions related to federal immigration policies have come to a full boil, less noted but no less important debates are taking place at state and local levels with regards to policies affecting immigrants and their children. As states are increasingly diverging in their responses, this report examines how some of the key policies and programs that support long-term integration success are faring in this volatile era.




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Cardiac Manifestations of Congenital Generalized Lipodystrophy

Vani P. Sanon
Oct 1, 2016; 34:181-186
Feature Articles




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Robustness and Locke's Wingless Gentleman

Our ancestors have made decisions under uncertainty ever since they had to stand and fight or run away, eat this root or that berry, sleep in this cave or under that bush. Our species is distinguished by the extent of deliberate thought preceding decision. Nonetheless, the ability to decide in the face of the unknown was born from primal necessity. Betting is one of the oldest ways of deciding under uncertainty. But you bet you that 'bet' is a subtler concept than one might think.

We all know what it means to make a bet, but just to make sure let's quote the Oxford English Dictionary: "To stake or wager (a sum of money, etc.) in support of an affirmation or on the issue of a forecast." The word has been around for quite a while. Shakespeare used the verb in 1600: "Iohn a Gaunt loued him well, and betted much money on his head." (Henry IV, Pt. 2 iii. ii. 44). Drayton used the noun in 1627 (and he wasn't the first): "For a long while it was an euen bet ... Whether proud Warwick, or the Queene should win."

An even bet is a 50-50 chance, an equal probability of each outcome. But betting is not always a matter of chance. Sometimes the meaning is just the opposite. According to the OED 'You bet' or 'You bet you' are slang expressions meaning 'be assured, certainly'. For instance: "'Can you handle this outfit?' 'You bet,' said the scout." (D.L.Sayers, Lord Peter Views Body, iv. 68). Mark Twain wrote "'I'll get you there on time' - and you bet you he did, too." (Roughing It, xx. 152).

So 'bet' is one of those words whose meaning stretches from one idea all the way to its opposite. Drayton's "even bet" between Warwick and the Queen means that he has no idea who will win. In contrast, Twain's "you bet you" is a statement of certainty. In Twain's or Sayers' usage, it's as though uncertainty combines with moral conviction to produce a definite resolution. This is a dialectic in which doubt and determination form decisiveness.

John Locke may have had something like this in mind when he wrote:

"If we will disbelieve everything, because we cannot certainly know all things; we shall do muchwhat as wisely as he, who would not use his legs, but sit still and perish, because he had no wings to fly." (An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1706, I.i.5)

The absurdity of Locke's wingless gentleman starving in his chair leads us to believe, and to act, despite our doubts. The moral imperative of survival sweeps aside the paralysis of uncertainty. The consequence of unabated doubt - paralysis - induces doubt's opposite: decisiveness.

But rational creatures must have some method for reasoning around their uncertainties. Locke does not intend for us to simply ignore our ignorance. But if we have no way to place bets - if the odds simply are unknown - then what are we to do? We cannot "sit still and perish".

This is where the strategy of robustness comes in.

'Robust' means 'Strong and hardy; sturdy; healthy'. By implication, something that is robust is 'not easily damaged or broken, resilient'. A statistical test is robust if it yields 'approximately correct results despite the falsity of certain of the assumptions underlying it' or despite errors in the data. (OED)

A decision is robust if its outcome is satisfactory despite error in the information and understanding which justified or motivated the decision. A robust decision is resilient to surprise, immune to ignorance.

It is no coincidence that the colloquial use of the word 'bet' includes concepts of both chance and certainty. A good bet can tolerate large deviation from certainty, large error of information. A good bet is robust to surprise. 'You bet you' does not mean that the world is certain. It means that the outcome is certain to be acceptable, regardless of how the world turns out. The scout will handle the outfit even if there is a rogue in the ranks; Twain will get there on time despite snags and surprises. A good bet is robust to the unknown. You bet you!


An extended and more formal discussion of these issues can be found elsewhere.




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Genesis for Engineers

Technology has come a long way since Australopithecus first bruised their fingers chipping flint to make knives and scrapers. We are blessed to fruitfully multiply, to fill the world and to master it (Genesis 1:28). And indeed the trend of technological history is towards increasing mastery over our world. Inventors deliberately invent, but many inventions are useless or even harmful. Why is there progress and how certain is the process? Part of the answer is that good ideas catch on and bad ones get weeded out. Reality, however, is more complicated: what is 'good' or 'bad' is not always clear; unintended consequences cannot be predicted; and some ideas get lost while others get entrenched. Mastering the darkness and chaos of creation is a huge engineering challenge. But more than that, progress is painful and uncertain and the challenge is not only technological.

An example of the weeding-out process, by which our mastery improves, comes to us in Hammurabi's code of law from 38 centuries ago:

"If a builder build a house for some one, and does not construct it properly, and the house which he built fall in and kill its owner, then that builder shall be put to death. If it kill the son of the owner the son of that builder shall be put to death." (Articles 229-230)

Builders who use inferior techniques, or who act irresponsibly, will be ruthlessly removed. Hammurabi's law doesn't say what techniques to use; it is a mechanism for selecting among techniques. As the level of competence rises and the rate of building collapse decreases, the law remains the same, implicitly demanding better performance after each improvement.

Hammurabi's law establishes negative incentives that weed out faulty technologies. In contrast, positive incentives can induce beneficial invention. John Harrison (1693-1776) worked for years developing a clock for accurate navigation at sea, motivated by the Royal Society's 20,000 pound prize.

Organizations, mores, laws and other institutions explain a major part of how good ideas catch on and how bad ones are abandoned. But good ideas can get lost as well. Jared Diamond relates that bow and arrow technologies emerged and then disappeared from pre-historic Australian cultures. Aboriginal mastery of the environment went up and then down. The mechanisms or institutions for selecting better tools do not always exist or operate.

Valuable technologies can be "side-lined" as well, despite apparent advantages. The CANDU nuclear reactor technology, for instance, uses natural Uranium. No isotope enrichment is needed, so its fuel cycle is disconnected from Uranium enrichment for military applications (atom bombs use highly enriched Uranium or Plutonium). CANDU's two main technological competitors - pressurized and boiling water reactors - use isotope-enriched fuel. Nuclear experts argue long (and loud) about the merits of various technologies, but no "major" or "serious" accidents (INES levels 6 or 7) have occurred with CANDU reactors but have with PWRs or BWRs. Nonetheless, the CANDU is a minor contributor to world nuclear power.

The long-run improvement of technology depends on incentives created by attitudes, organizations and institutions, like the Royal Society and the law. Technology modifies those attitudes and institutions, creating an interactive process whereby society influences technological development, and technology alters society. The main uncertainty in technological progress arises from unintended impacts of technology on mores, values and society as a whole. An example will make the point.

Early mechanical clocks summoned the faithful to prayer in medieval monasteries. But technological innovations may be used for generations without anyone realizing their full implications, and so it was with the clock. The long-range influence of the mechanical clock on western civilization was the idea of "time discipline as opposed to time obedience. One can ... use public clocks to summon people for one purpose or another; but that is not punctuality. Punctuality comes from within, not from without. It is the mechanical clock that made possible, for better or for worse, a civilization attentive to the passage of time, hence to productivity and performance." (Landes, p.7)

Unintended consequences of technology - what economists called "externalities" - can be beneficial or harmful. The unintended internalization of punctuality is beneficial (maybe). The clock example illustrates how our values gradually and unexpectedly change as a result of technological innovation. Environmental pollution and adverse climate change are harmful, even when they result from manufacturing beneficial consumer goods. Attitudes towards technological progress are beginning to change in response to perceptions of technologically-induced climate change. Pollution and climate change may someday seriously disrupt the technology-using societies that produced them. This disruption may occur either by altering social values, or by adverse material impacts, or both.

Progress occurs in historical and institutional context. Hammurabi's Code created incentives for technological change; monastic life created needs for technological solutions. Progress is uncertain because we cannot know what will be invented, and whether it will be beneficial or harmful. Moreover, inventions will change our attitudes and institutions, and thus change the process of invention itself, in ways that we cannot anticipate. The scientific engineer must dispel the "darkness over the deep" (Genesis 1:2) because mastery comes from enlightenment. But in doing so we change both the world and ourselves. The unknown is not only over "the waters" but also in ourselves.





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I’m a Cisgender Woman and My Husband Watches Trans Porn: Does That Mean He’s Not Into Me?

A reader submitted the following question: “I recently discovered that my husband is attracted to transsexuals (MTF - non op). This is the only type of porn that he looks at. He also role plays online with men for sexual play and chat. I discovered this after I started snooping because I had some red flags. He is very embarrassed and uncomfortable discussing it. He has apologized for the online chatting (as we had agreed this was out of bounds for our relationship). He says he likes them because they are feminine but his primary attraction is to women (with female parts). However, I just am not sure I believe him. I am terrified that when we are intimate (which I have to pretty much beg for), he can only do it when its dark and I am fearful he is fantasizing that I have a penis. This bothers me deeply on a number of different levels. Are there men who are only interested in transsexuals? Is it possible he is no longer turned on by my female genitalia?” There’s a lot to unpack in this question, but let’s start here: over the years, I’ve received several emails from women describing similar stories and concerns, so you’re not alone in feeling the way that you do.



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The gender-fluid history of the Philippines | France Villarta

In much of the world, gender is viewed as binary: man or woman, each assigned characteristics and traits designated by biological sex. But that's not the case everywhere, says France Villarta. In a talk that's part cultural love letter, part history lesson, he details the legacy of gender fluidity and inclusivity in his native Philippines -- and emphasizes the universal beauty of all people, regardless of society's labels.




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Indigenous knowledge meets science to solve climate change | Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim

To tackle a problem as large as climate change, we need both science and Indigenous wisdom, says environmental activist Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim. In this engaging talk, she shares how her nomadic community in Chad is working closely with scientists to restore endangered ecosystems -- and offers lessons on how to create more resilient communities.




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A history of Indigenous languages -- and how to revitalize them | Lindsay Morcom

Indigenous languages across North America are under threat of extinction due to the colonial legacy of cultural erasure, says linguist Lindsay Morcom. Highlighting grassroots strategies developed by the Anishinaabe people of Canada to revive their language and community, Morcom makes a passionate case for enacting policies that could protect Indigenous heritage for generations to come.




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Teenagers Who Believe They Are Particularly Intelligent Tend To Be More Narcissistic And Happier With Life

By Emily Reynolds. But self-assessed intelligence was not actually related to objective measures of intelligence