bus Letter of the Day | Tourism won’t be ‘business as usual’ By jamaica-gleaner.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 00:06:27 -0500 THE EDITOR, Madam: With most things grinding to a halt worldwide, this pandemic has proven to be as much of an economic crisis as it is a health one. Many sectors have changed their day-to-day operations, with some allowing for greater flexibility... Full Article
bus Covid-19: Trump says added deaths are necessary price for reopening US businesses By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: 2020-05-07T07:10:42-07:00 A rise in mortality is a price worth paying to restart the US economy, President Trump has said, as many states flout advice from scientists and reopen beaches, cinemas, or hair salons while new... Full Article
bus Business Briefs By jamaica-gleaner.com Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 00:06:24 -0500 Branson Centre goes digital The Caribbean branch of Branson Centre of Entrepreneurship has shifted fully to online delivery of its services. This includes online training and support in three business development areas: finance, strategic... Full Article
bus Making the Business Case for Nutrition Workshop By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 05 Dec 2019 12:15:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 28 January 2020 - 9:30am to 5:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE A ground-breaking research project from Chatham House, supported by The Power of Nutrition, is exploring the business case for tackling undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies and overnutrition. Companies across all sectors hold huge, transformative power to save countless lives and transform their own financial prospects. To act, they need more compelling evidence of the potential for targeted investments and strategies to promote better nutrition and create healthier, more productive workforces and consumers.At this workshop, Chatham House will engage business decision-makers in a scenario exercise that explores different nutrition futures and their commercial prospects in each before examining what different strategies business can pursue to maximize future profitability through investments in nutrition.Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme Full Article
bus Will a Devastating Bushfire Season Change Australia’s Climate Stance? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 23 Jan 2020 09:20:27 +0000 23 January 2020 Madeleine Forster Richard and Susan Hayden Academy Fellow, International Law Programme @maddiefors LinkedIn Professor Tim Benton Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme @timgbenton Google Scholar With Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, Madeleine Forster and Tim Benton examine the influencers, at home or abroad, that could push the government towards more action. 2020-01-23-FireNSW.jpg Residents look on as flames burn through bush on 4 January 2020 in Lake Tabourie, NSW. Photo: Getty Images. The 2019–20 fire season in Australia has been unprecedented. To date, an estimated 18 million hectares of fire has cut swathes through the bush – an area greater than that of the average European country and over five times the size of blazes in the Amazon.This reflects previous predictions of Australian science. Since 2008 and as recently as 2018, scientific bodies have warned that climate change will exacerbate existing conditions for fires and other climatic disasters in Australia. What used to be once-in-a-generation fires now re-appear within 10–15 years with increased ferocity, over longer seasons.In a country known for climate denial and division, debate has erupted around bushfire management and climate change. One of these is whether controlled burns are the answer to Australia’s climate-affected fire conditions.There is no single risk reduction strategy. Controlled burning remains key, if adapted to the environment and climate. But when three out of four seasons in a year can support destructive bushfires, there are clear limits to what controlled burning and other fire management techniques can achieve. Other ‘adaptation’ measures are also likely to provoke intense debate – including bush clearance. As one Australian expert offered to highlight where Australia has got to, families should probably not go on holiday to bush and beach during the height of summer when temperatures and fire risk peaks. So, unless Australia is prepared to debate radical changes to where people live and how land is used, the limits to adaptation imply the need for mitigation. This means supporting ambitious global greenhouse emissions reductions targets. As research from Victoria, one fire-prone state in Australia, highlights, ‘the emissions pathway we follow is the largest determinant of change to many variables [such as temperature] beyond the next few decades.’Can Australia become a more active global partner on emissions?Australia accounts for just over one per cent of global emissions, so reducing domestic emissions – even though on a per capita basis they are the highest in the world – will not reduce Australia’s climate risk. Showing international leadership and supporting a powerful coalition of the willing to tackle climate change is the only way ahead. By showing a willingness to adopt climate ambition, Australia can help more constructive worldwide action, and thereby reduce its own risk exposure. Leading by example is a politically difficult issue for Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison was re-elected in May 2019 on an economic stability platform, and a promise not to imperil employment growth through climate action. Australia has contested UN estimates that it will not meet its existing modest goals for domestic emissions, by seeking to rely on carryover credits from action under the Kyoto Protocol as proof of progress.It has also distanced itself from concerns over global supply and demand in fossil fuels. Australia remains a global supplier for fossil fuels, including coal – the nation’s coal exports accounted for $67 billion in revenues in 2019 in an expanding but changing Asian market, supplying ‘some of the cheapest electricity in the world’.Possible influencers of changeWith Australians experiencing first-hand the risks of climate change, there is already pressure to do more. Many are sceptical this will translate into domestic targets or export policies that give Australia the moral authority to ask for more action on the global stage.Here, diverse groups who share a common interest in seeing Australia recover from the bushfires and address future climate risks could be key.Importantly this includes rural and urban-fringe communities affected by the bushfires. They were part of Morrison’s traditional supporter-base but are angry at the government’s handling of the crisis and increasingly see how tiptoeing around emissions (including exports) has also ‘buried’ open discussion at home on climate-readiness.Australian states could also find themselves taking a lead role. Virtually all jurisdictions have now committed to their own goals, most based on zero-carbon goals by 2050 (as has New Zealand). These can support modelling for Australia’s energy transition from coal, through gas, to market competitive renewables, while also help to ensure this reflects community expectations on jobs, electricity prices and other costs. Other emerging voices include the insurance and banking sectors (the Reserve Bank of Australia warned of the long-term financial stability risks of climate change before the fires) and indigenous Australians (one group of Torres Strait Islanders have filed a complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee which, if heard, will place Australia’s emissions record under the spotlight again). Their challenge now is finding a common language on what a cohesive approach to addressing climate change risk looks like. The international picture is mixed. The United States’ poor federal climate policy is a buffer for Australia. French President Emmanuel Macron has tried to raise the cost of inaction for Australia in current EU–Australia trade negotiations, but many large emitters in the Indo-Pacific region remain key Australian trading partners, investors and buyers of Australian coal. In the meantime, the United Kingdom is preparing for the meeting of parties to the Paris Agreement in Glasgow in November. A key global event following Brexit, the UK will no doubt be hoping to encourage a leadership circle with national commitments that meet global need to make the Glasgow meeting a success.The UK public has expressed enormous sympathy for Australia in the bushfires and outrage over ‘climate denialism.’ Australia’s experience will be a cautionary tale of the effects of climate change at the meeting. Could the UK also support Australia to become a less reluctant partner in global climate action? Full Article
bus David Oliver: Is abuse towards doctors in government roles unfair? By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 - 09:26 Full Article
bus Covid-19: Trump says added deaths are necessary price for reopening US businesses By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Thursday, May 7, 2020 - 14:10 Full Article
bus 2009 E Pluribus Unum Awards By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Wed, 20 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400 Award winners for the inaugural year of the E Pluribus Unum Prizes program were honored at a reception at the Library of Congress in Washington, DC in 2009. Full Article
bus 2010 E Pluribus Unum Prizes: Honoring Exceptional Immigrant Integration Initiatives By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Tue, 18 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400 Award winners were honored at the second annual awards ceremony in Washington, DC, on May 18, 2010. Full Article
bus 2010 E Pluribus Unum Prizes: Honoring Exceptional Immigrant Integration Initiatives By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Wed, 19 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400 Winners of the 2nd annual E Pluribus Unum Prizes awarded to exceptional immigrant integration initiatives by MPI's National Center on Immigrant Integration Policy are the Illinois New Americans Integration Initiative; the Latino Community Credit Union in Durham, NC; Tacoma Community House in Tacoma, WA; and Upwardly Global in San Francisco, CA. McDonald's Corp. of Oak Brook, IL, received the sole honorable mention. The Prizes seek to reward exemplary efforts that uphold and update the ideal of "out of many, one" and inspire others to take on the important work of helping immigrants and their children join the mainstream of U.S. society as well as build stronger ties between immigrants and the native-born. Award winners were honored at the second annual awards ceremony in Washington, DC, on May 18, 2010. Watch highlights of the ceremony here. Full Article
bus E Pluribus Unum Prizes Panel Discussions and Awards Ceremony By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Wed, 18 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400 This awards ceremony, honoring the 2011 recipients of the E Pluribus Unum Prizes — a national awards program for exceptional immigrant integration initiatives — featured panel discussions with the awardees and federal officials and remarks by White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs Cecilia Muñoz and Assistant Secretary of Education Brenda Dann-Messier. Full Article
bus E Pluribus Unum Prizes Panel Discussions and Awards Ceremony By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Thu, 19 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400 This awards ceremony, honoring the 2011 recipients of the E Pluribus Unum Prizes -- a national awards program for exceptional immigrant integration initiatives -- featured panel discussions with the awardees and federal officials and remarks by White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs Cecilia Muñoz and Assistant Secretary of Education Brenda Dann-Messier. Full Article
bus 2012 E Pluribus Unum Prizes By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Mon, 24 Sep 2012 00:00:00 -0400 The winners of the Migration Policy Institute's 2012 E Pluribus Unum Prizes, honoring exceptional immigrant integration initiatives in the United States, discussed their work during a plenary luncheon on September 24, 2012 at the National Immigrant Integration Conference held in Baltimore, MD. Full Article
bus 2012 E Pluribus Unum Prizes By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Mon, 24 Sep 2012 16:00:00 -0400 The winners of the Migration Policy Institute's 2012 E Pluribus Unum Prizes--ACCESS (the Arab Community Center for Economic and Social Services), Building Skills Partnership, Californians Together, and Citi Community Development--discussed their immigrant integration initiatives at the National Immigrant Integration Conference. Full Article
bus 2013 E Pluribus Unum Prizes Awards Ceremony By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Wed, 04 Dec 2013 21:00:00 -0500 This awards ceremony honored the 2013 winners of the E Pluribus Unum Prizes, which provides $50,000 prizes to exceptional U.S. immigrant integration initiatives. The awardees took part in a panel discussion with White House and state officials, followed by remarks from Congressman Luis Gutierrez and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar. Full Article
bus George W. Bush Calls for an End to Partisanship in Fight Against Virus By feeds.socialpsychology.org Published On :: 2020-05-04T04:28:01-04:00 Source: CNN - Top StoriesFormer U.S. President George W. Bush has called for an end to partisanship in the nation's continued battle against the coronavirus, urging Americans to "remember that empathy and simple kindness are essential powerful tools of national recovery." Full Article
bus Coronary Heart Disease Incidence and Cardiovascular Mortality in Busselton with Reference to Glucose and Insulin Concentrations By care.diabetesjournals.org Published On :: 1979-03-01 T A WelbornMar 1, 1979; 2:154-160Proceedings of the Kroc Foundation International Conference on Epidemiology of Diabetes and its Macrovascular Complications Full Article
bus Latin American business leaders optimistic about region’s post-pandemic economy By www.upi.com Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 18:44:51 -0400 Despite worrying economic projections, business leaders in Latin America remain optimistic about post-pandemic economy. Full Article
bus Australian Cardinal George Pell knew of child abuse, report says By www.upi.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 07:21:04 -0400 Pell, a former Vatican treasurer, was aware of child abuse being committed by clergy by 1973, contrary to his long-held assertions that he knew nothing about the accusations. Full Article
bus ADA, other dental organizations ask Labor Department to help small businesses By www.ada.org Published On :: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 12:07:00 -0500 The ADA, along with a large group of other dental organizations, told the U.S. Department of Labor that they are concerned about provisions in HR 6201, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act as related to family and medical leave and paid sick leave. Full Article
bus ADA urges Congress to increase relief for small businesses, dentist owners By www.ada.org Published On :: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 14:51:00 -0500 As Congress works on a third legislation package in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the ADA is asking lawmakers to include provisions on how to assist dental practices and other small businesses facing economic burdens. Full Article
bus ADA asks Treasury Department, Small Business Administration to clarify intent of interim rule By www.ada.org Published On :: Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:09:00 -0500 The Association continues to wait for clear guidance from the U.S. Department of Treasury and Small Business Administration on the best way to help dentists considering applying for Paycheck Protection Program 7(a) loans and Economic Injury Disaster Loans. Full Article
bus Small Business Administration: Dentists can apply for both economic injury disaster and paycheck protection program loans By www.ada.org Published On :: Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:28:00 -0500 Dentists can apply for both Economic Injury Disaster Loans and Paycheck Protection Program 7(a) loans, the Small Business Administration told the American Dental Association on April 6. Full Article
bus Webinar on Small Business Administration loans available online By www.ada.org Published On :: Fri, 10 Apr 2020 10:26:00 -0500 The ADA webinar, Small Business Administration Loans: Understanding the Options for Dentist Owners, is available online. Full Article
bus ADA asks Congress to increase funding, extend dates for Small Business Administration loans By www.ada.org Published On :: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 14:08:00 -0500 The ADA is urging Congress to continue supporting small businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic by increasing funding and streamlining the application process for Small Business Administration loans. Full Article
bus Index shows that dentists slowly but surely embracing electronic means of doing business By www.ada.org Published On :: Thu, 16 Apr 2020 10:26:00 -0500 Despite the ADA Council on Dental Benefits’ efforts, the practice of using automated electronic means for verifying eligibility and benefits, checking claim status or receiving and reconciling payment remains underutilized by many dental providers according to an index, said Dr. Randall Markarian, council chair. Full Article
bus Senate votes to expand small business aid By www.ada.org Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 16:20:00 -0500 The Senate passed new coronavirus relief legislation April 21 calling for much-needed funding for depleted federal loan programs that could help businesses nationwide, including dentists and dental practices, recover from the economic fallout of the pandemic. Full Article
bus Business as Usual? Regularizing Foreign Labor in Costa Rica By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 14:17:14 -0400 With the growing urbanization and consolidation of Nicaraguan immigrants in sectors such as construction and domestic service, Costa Rica has shifted its focus from immigration enforcement to integration. Tension has emerged between the government and private sector as a new mechanism for regularizing unauthorized immigrant workers has failed to gain traction. Full Article
bus Ask Ariely: On Soiled Sinks, Busy Bathrooms, and Dainty Donations By danariely.com Published On :: Sat, 21 Dec 2019 12:30:47 +0000 Here’s my Q&A column from the WSJ this week — and if you have any questions for me, you can tweet them to @danariely with the hashtag #askariely, post a comment on my Ask Ariely Facebook page, or email them to AskAriely@wsj.com. ___________________________________________________ Dear Dan, People in my office drink a... Full Article Ask Ariely Behavioral Economics Blog advice column ask ariely Behavioral Economics & Psychology dear dan wall street journal wsj
bus Ask Ariely: On Healthy Handshakes, Bus Behaviors, and Diet Defenses By danariely.com Published On :: Sat, 14 Mar 2020 11:30:57 +0000 Here’s my Q&A column from the WSJ this week — and if you have any questions for me, you can tweet them to @danariely with the hashtag #askariely, post a comment on my Ask Ariely Facebook page, or email them to AskAriely@wsj.com. ___________________________________________________ Dear Dan, I know that because of the... Full Article Ask Ariely Blog advice column ask ariely Behavioral Economics & Psychology dear dan wall street journal wsj
bus Ohio State University agrees to $10M settlement with abuse victims By www.upi.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 09:31:36 -0400 Ohio State University will pay more than $40 million to 162 former students who said a team doctor abused them over two decades, the school announced. Full Article
bus [ Other - Business & Finance ] Open Question : Can I apply for unemployment as a gig worker? By answers.yahoo.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 17:23:03 +0000 If so, can you do it online? I don't want to catch COVID-19 waiting in some packed line, as I live with an 80 year old. Full Article
bus [ Politics ] Open Question : Is it true many British and American banks and companies(Bank of England,UIC,Prescott Bush,etc) gave money and goods to Hitler secretly? By answers.yahoo.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 17:24:02 +0000 Full Article
bus Bush: Naturally, Never Wrong By www.washingtonpost.com Published On :: Mon, 09 Jul 2007 00:00:00 EDT Psychologists once conducted a simple experiment with far-reaching implications: They asked people to describe an instance in their lives when they had hurt someone and another instance when they had been hurt by someone else. The incidents that people described were similar whether they saw... Full Article Opinions Bush: Naturally Never Wrong
bus Bush and Counterfactual Confidence By www.washingtonpost.com Published On :: Mon, 30 Jul 2007 00:00:00 EDT In the face of mounting public and political opposition to the war in Iraq, recent reports from the White House suggest that President Bush remains serenely confident. Full Article Opinions Bush and Counterfactual Confidence
bus Babushka's Borsch By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 08 Mar 2016 18:16:00 +1100 This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Alice Zaslavsky aka Alice in Frames. Alice's latest book is "Alice's Food A-Z: Edible Adventures". Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
bus Flinders island lamb saddle, crushed peppered turnip, fried salt bush By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 19 Jul 2016 14:22:00 +1000 This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of David Hall of Pure South Dining Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:Main Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
bus Bush food macadamia, white chocolate and pepperleaf cookies By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Fri, 21 Oct 2016 13:39:00 +1000 125g butter, softened 1 cup caster sugar 1 egg 1 tsp vanilla essence 1 and 1/2 cups plain flour, sifted 1 tsp baking powder 1/4 tsp. pepper leaf spice, ground 1 cup white chocolate chips 1/3 cup raw macadamia nuts, chopped Full Article ABC Local widebay Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:QLD:Bundaberg 4670
bus Bush food native tomato seasoned chicken with plum and chilli dip By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Fri, 28 Oct 2016 14:02:00 +1000 chicken thigh fillets, skinless and cut in to finger length strips 100g melted butter 1 tbsp. native tomato spice mix plum and chilli bottled sauce Full Article ABC Local widebay Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:QLD:Bundaberg 4670
bus The Digital Transformation Playbook: Rethink Your Business for the Digital Age By brandleadership.wordpress.com Published On :: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 16:24:52 +0000 Every business begun before the Internet now faces the same challenge: How to transform to compete in a digital economy? This is the leadership challenge examined by BRITE founder and Columbia Business School faculty member David Rogers in his newest book, The Digital Transformation Playbook (April 5, 2016; Columbia Business School Publishing). In the book, […] Full Article Uncategorized
bus Reflections on Business, Leadership, and Branding: Shelly Lazarus ’70 By brandleadership.wordpress.com Published On :: Mon, 22 Feb 2016 15:20:02 +0000 Much has changed in the world of advertising from the picture painted by Mad Men. Shelly Lazarus ’70, Chairman Emeritus, Ogilvy & Mather, was one of the women helping pioneer these changes. Making the journey from ‘the only woman in the room’ to CEO and Chairman of Ogilvy gives Lazarus a lot to reflect on […] Full Article *Matthew Quint Brand Strategy Business Values Leadership Uncategorized BRITE Conference Ogilvy & Mather Shelly Lazarus
bus Robustness and Locke's Wingless Gentleman By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Tue, 20 Sep 2011 07:49:00 +0000 Our ancestors have made decisions under uncertainty ever since they had to stand and fight or run away, eat this root or that berry, sleep in this cave or under that bush. Our species is distinguished by the extent of deliberate thought preceding decision. Nonetheless, the ability to decide in the face of the unknown was born from primal necessity. Betting is one of the oldest ways of deciding under uncertainty. But you bet you that 'bet' is a subtler concept than one might think.We all know what it means to make a bet, but just to make sure let's quote the Oxford English Dictionary: "To stake or wager (a sum of money, etc.) in support of an affirmation or on the issue of a forecast." The word has been around for quite a while. Shakespeare used the verb in 1600: "Iohn a Gaunt loued him well, and betted much money on his head." (Henry IV, Pt. 2 iii. ii. 44). Drayton used the noun in 1627 (and he wasn't the first): "For a long while it was an euen bet ... Whether proud Warwick, or the Queene should win."An even bet is a 50-50 chance, an equal probability of each outcome. But betting is not always a matter of chance. Sometimes the meaning is just the opposite. According to the OED 'You bet' or 'You bet you' are slang expressions meaning 'be assured, certainly'. For instance: "'Can you handle this outfit?' 'You bet,' said the scout." (D.L.Sayers, Lord Peter Views Body, iv. 68). Mark Twain wrote "'I'll get you there on time' - and you bet you he did, too." (Roughing It, xx. 152).So 'bet' is one of those words whose meaning stretches from one idea all the way to its opposite. Drayton's "even bet" between Warwick and the Queen means that he has no idea who will win. In contrast, Twain's "you bet you" is a statement of certainty. In Twain's or Sayers' usage, it's as though uncertainty combines with moral conviction to produce a definite resolution. This is a dialectic in which doubt and determination form decisiveness.John Locke may have had something like this in mind when he wrote:"If we will disbelieve everything, because we cannot certainly know all things; we shall do muchwhat as wisely as he, who would not use his legs, but sit still and perish, because he had no wings to fly." (An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1706, I.i.5)The absurdity of Locke's wingless gentleman starving in his chair leads us to believe, and to act, despite our doubts. The moral imperative of survival sweeps aside the paralysis of uncertainty. The consequence of unabated doubt - paralysis - induces doubt's opposite: decisiveness.But rational creatures must have some method for reasoning around their uncertainties. Locke does not intend for us to simply ignore our ignorance. But if we have no way to place bets - if the odds simply are unknown - then what are we to do? We cannot "sit still and perish".This is where the strategy of robustness comes in.'Robust' means 'Strong and hardy; sturdy; healthy'. By implication, something that is robust is 'not easily damaged or broken, resilient'. A statistical test is robust if it yields 'approximately correct results despite the falsity of certain of the assumptions underlying it' or despite errors in the data. (OED)A decision is robust if its outcome is satisfactory despite error in the information and understanding which justified or motivated the decision. A robust decision is resilient to surprise, immune to ignorance.It is no coincidence that the colloquial use of the word 'bet' includes concepts of both chance and certainty. A good bet can tolerate large deviation from certainty, large error of information. A good bet is robust to surprise. 'You bet you' does not mean that the world is certain. It means that the outcome is certain to be acceptable, regardless of how the world turns out. The scout will handle the outfit even if there is a rogue in the ranks; Twain will get there on time despite snags and surprises. A good bet is robust to the unknown. You bet you!An extended and more formal discussion of these issues can be found elsewhere. Full Article betting robustness
bus Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Sun, 09 Oct 2011 11:51:00 +0000 Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their DilemmasDecision problems.Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?Solution strategies.The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement."Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm PetersenNow let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative."Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.Robustness and ProbabilityNow we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.Wrapping UpThe skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. Full Article betting innovation dilemma probability proxy property robustness
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bus N.Y. Private Schools Didn't Have to Report Abuse to Police. A New Law Changes That. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 27 Dec 2018 00:00:00 +0000 Private schools in New York soon will be required to report suspected sexual abuse of students in their schools to law enforcement, bringing the independent schools under the same rules as public schools. Full Article New_York
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bus Financial Abuse Legal Service By legalanswers.sl.nsw.gov.au Published On :: Mon, 08 Jul 2019 02:03:11 +0000 Redfern Legal Centre's Financial Abuse Legal Service provides free, confidential legal information and advice to pe Full Article
