The UK government has approved a new scheme for desalination of water from the Thames, for use in London. The £200 million plant will be built in Beckton, east London. It's not a popular plan, though, among environmental campaigners. We've written before

Britain's Conservative government is expected to announce wide-ranging measures to tackle ocean plastic pollution.

Incredibly, this appears to be the first time the government has really tried to tackle this crucial issue nationwide.

The British wind energy industry is making huge strides - with more to come.

It talks a lot about cycling, but notes that we don't do nearly enough about walking.

It calls for more support of bikes, walking and transit, banning ICE-powered cars sooner.

The powerful 12-MW turbine is being developed and tested now.

Ruling represents the first time that a coal mine has been rejected because of the failure to adequately consider and disclose the impacts that a mine would have on climate disruption.

This should take the wind out of the "all turbines are evil" crowd's sails.

The biomix-infused suit helps break down a body, while neutralizing toxins and boosting plant growth.

Trivia challenge: how many years can you run London with the power used on Christmas lights?

This is precisely the kind of healthy, sustainable agriculture we should be trying to expand globally.

The environment minister stated that post-Brexit trade deals will not allow chlorine-washed chicken or hormone-treated beef.

Public washrooms really are just as important as public roads because, in both cases, people gotta go.

Samruk Kazyna Corporate Transformation is Set to Generate an Additional $11bn in Revenues to Kazakhstan in the Next Six Years

Campen Auktioner A/S - Specialbilauktion #482 Palmesøndag

The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society exists to find cures and ensure access to treatments for blood cancer patients. We are saving lives not someday, but today.

Christine Attia lost her fiancé just two years ago after he lost a courageous six-month battle with acute myeloid leukemia. She reminds everyone, while breakthrough therapies are saving lives, work still needs to be done to find cures.

Dr. David Weinstock of Dana-Farber Cancer Institute discusses his LLS grant

Healthcare leaders and the public say how they would balance the NHS’ books

Russia reported 11,231 additional cases of the coronavirus disease to bring the country's tally to 177,160 since the outbreak.

Ofcom is looking into a popular morning show after its presenter made comments about baseless conspiracy theories linking Covid-19 to 5G.

The potential trade deal with the U.S. is very important for the U.K, but the negations will probably be challenging and drawn-out due to issues such as agricultural, data flows, and intellectual property, says Joshua Meltzer of the Brookings Institution.

Car sales for April have hit historic lows.

The combined group could put pressure on rival telecommunications firms BT, Vodafone and Sky.

Dan Kemp, CIO of Morningstar Investment Management EMEA, discusses the U.K. economy.

The European Union's agency for disease control has said that the U.K. is among five countries in the region that are still not seeing a decline in new coronavirus cases.

"We will want, if we possibly can, to get going with some of these measures on Monday," U.K. Prime Minister Johnson told Parliament.

Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of geopolitics at ESSEC Business School, predicts that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's second Brexit deal will likely be rejected Monday, creating further scope for a near-term general election.

Gerard Lyons tells CNBC there is too much fear about leaving the EU without a deal.

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Critics of No 10 warn U-turns undermining efforts to keep public safe from coronavirus

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

First people were meant to stay at home to save lives, and then government sources raised the prospect of picnics with pals and sunbathing in the park just before a sunny bank holiday weekend.

Boris Johnson told the nation that scientists thought face masks might help stop the spread of the disease, but no change was made to the government advice that they were not needed outside medical and care settings.

Stringent measures to be announced with visitors and returning Britons to be asked to self-isolate

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

A 14-day quarantine period for all travellers coming to Britain would have a devastating impact on the UK aviation industry and wider economy, a trade body has said.

The government is expected to announce the quarantine on Sunday as part of measures to prevent a second peak of the coronavirus pandemic.

• Heel fracture discovered on striker’s return to training centre
• Injury adds to difficult first season in Spain for €65m signing

The Real Madrid forward Luka Jovic has suffered a foot injury while training at home and is unlikely to be fit for the potential restart of the La Liga season in mid-June.

The Spanish club have confirmed that their medical team discovered a fracture in the Serbian striker’s heel bone during routine tests carried out prior to the resumption of individual training on Monday.

Climate advisers call for work and training in low-carbon heating, water efficiency and flood-protection

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Restarting the economy and getting people back to work after the coronavirus lockdown should focus on low-carbon work programmes, the UK government’s climate advisers have urged.

They said this would generate new jobs, protect the climate and ensure a fairer economy for everyone.

Related: Green stimulus can repair global economy and climate, study says

Related: Airlines and oil giants are on the brink. No government should offer them a lifeline | George Monbiot

Income subsidies

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as American companies slash payrolls at an unprecedented rate

• Breaking: US payrolls fall by 20.3m in April
• Worst data on record, by a mile

Earlier:

• UK construction in record slump
• German factory orders plunged 15.6% in March
• Coronavirus – latest updates
  
• See all our coronavirus coverage

5.17pm BST

It’s been another day of dire economic data, as the coronovirus pandemic hits firms across the globe.

Related: Small firms secure £2bn in bounce-back loans in first 24 hours

Related: Coronavirus threatens future of eurozone, Brussels warns

4.51pm BST

After a choppy day’s trading, European stock markets have closed mostly in the red.

The Stoxx 600 index dipped by 0.4%, with America’s surge in unemployment reminding traders that the world economy is entering a steep recession.

4.42pm BST

Back in the UK, troubled department store chain Debenhams is to permanently close five additional sites.

The move puts more than 1,000 jobs at risk. All the stores are in shopping centres owned by property firm Hammerson including The Oracle in Reading and Birmingham’s Bullring.

Related: Debenhams appoints administrators and liquidates Irish chain

4.21pm BST

The Financial Times says America is facing an unemployment crisis of historic proportions, judging by today’s slump in private sector payrolls.

The US private sector shed a record 20m jobs in April as coronavirus lockdowns and the resulting closure of non-essential businesses led to historic unemployment.

Non-farm private employers cut 20.2m jobs last month, according to payroll processor ADP. That compared with economists’ expectations for 20m and easily surpassed the previous record of about 835,000 in February 2009 during the financial crisis.

The report is a harbinger of the government’s April jobs report on Friday and adds to evidence of the pandemic’s widespread economic devastation. The Labor Department’s figures are projected to show a record 21 million decline in total nonfarm payrolls and a jobless rate surging to 16%.

More than 30 million people have applied for jobless benefits in the past six weeks, though not all of them are still unemployed. Another 3 million probably applied in the past week.

In all likelihood, total job losses probably exceed the 23 million new jobs created from the end of the last recession in 2009 until the pandemic took hold in mid-March.

3.53pm BST

The global recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has also driven up US oil stockpiles.

US crude oil inventories jumped by nearly 4.6 million barrels in the last week, the Energy Information Administration reports, despite some producers cutting output following the slump in prices.

#OOTT | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories 01-May: 4590K (est 8800K; prev 8991K)
- Distillate: 9518K (est 3000K; prev 5092K)
- Cushing: 2068K (prev 3637K)
- Gasoline: -3158K (est 1000K; prev -3669K)
- Refinery Utilization: 0.90% (est 0.45%; prev 2.00%)

Chart on US petroleum (crude, oil products, SPR) inventories in mb (source: EIA) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/hoz5sIJ5YT

3.31pm BST

Back in the UK, more than 400 oil rig workers have been flown off North Sea oil rigs in recent weeks with suspected Covid-19 symptoms or because they are at high risk of contracting it.

“The industry has been toiling with all the ramifications of social distancing and isolations, as well as how to test and when to test. It has been a pretty turbulent four or five weeks.”

“This apparent reduction is a small move in the right direction but we can’t stress enough the need to remain alert, to continue to follow protocols and to raise any concerns in both on and offshore working environments.”

3.26pm BST

Here’s a good video clip explaining the record fall in US employment:

JUST IN: U.S. private payrolls fell by more than 20.2 million in April, the worst loss in the ADP survey’s history. https://t.co/E37a0IjOc5 pic.twitter.com/FRcGtXXVa6

2.54pm BST

The US stock market appears to be shrugging off the dramatic surge in US unemployment.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 0.3% in early trading, gaining 76 points to 23,959. Quite a subdued reaction to the news that Twenty Million Americans lost their jobs last month.

“Equity markets seem quite happy about the prospects of factories and shops gearing up for more activity, but confidence, the key ingredient to secure a return to normal, remains elusive. Even though China has now gone weeks without a new case, the COVID19 curves are not flattening everywhere. Indeed, in some US states the trends continue to worsen and there are still lots of unanswered questions about how and why it spreads.

“Fresh outbreaks raise the threat of further lockdowns in some parts of the country. More damaging will be delays in restoring confidence to workers and shoppers that more normal activity is safe.

Bloomberg News’s analysis found that 20 states that have lifted restrictions don’t meet the White House guidelines for reopening.

Many are moving ahead anyway https://t.co/H79gTbdPQx pic.twitter.com/bTwoeW4yGe

2.33pm BST

Uber is also permanently close 180 driver service centres as part of its cost-cutting drive, Bloomberg reports:

Of the more than 450 driver centers Uber operates worldwide, 40% will shut down. The locations, called Greenlight Hubs, are used to sign people up to drive for Uber, teach them how to use the app and address issues that arise on the job. In March, as the virus was spreading in North America, Uber said it was temporarily closing all hubs in the U.S. and Canada.

Dara Khosrowshahi signaled that more “difficult adjustments” would be put forth in the next two weeks. “Days like this are brutal,” he wrote [in an email to employees].

Uber will eliminate 3,700 jobs and permanently close 180 driver service centers, the first in a series of cost-cutting measures https://t.co/PxmZFyaizu

2.23pm BST

Just in: Uber is adding to America’s unemployment misery, by cutting 3,700 jobs in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Due to lower trip volumes in its Rides segment and the Company’s current hiring freeze, the Company is reducing its customer support and recruiting teams by approximately 3,700 full-time employee roles.

In connection with these actions, the Company estimates that it will incur approximately $20 million related to severance and other termination benefits.

UBER TO CUT 3,700 EMPLOYEES, ABOUT 14% OF WORKFORCE, AS CORONAVIRUS CAUSES DEMAND TO PLUNGE
(cnbc)

2.18pm BST

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics fears that America’s jobless rate will hit at least 15% on Friday, when the government publishes April’s Non-Farm Payroll.

He points out that today’s ADP report isn’t completely comparable to NFP:

The ADP counts anyone on the active payroll rather than just people who were paid during the month, which is the official non-farm payroll definition. Within many people put on temporary layoff, that could have created a discrepancy, with those people still on the active payroll, but not counted in the official non-farm payroll figures and also qualifying as unemployed in the other official household survey.

We still estimate that non-farm payrolls fell by 22,500,000, with the unemployment rate rising to somewhere between 15% and 20%.

2.04pm BST

Heather Long of the Washington Post points out that America’s labor market has lost all the job creation gains of the last decade:

A decade of US job gains was wiped out in two months

ADP says 20.2 millions jobs were lost in April. Official government report comes out Friday https://t.co/uoaWRZnmHu

The @ADP private sector payroll report: 20.2mn #jobs losses in April:

- services 16mn job losses with half in leisure & hospitality (8.6mn), followed by #trade and transportation (-3.4mn), other svc (-1.3mn), prof/biz svc (-1.2mn)

- goods -4.2nm with +half in construction pic.twitter.com/11WSR2PM4U

More Detail: pic.twitter.com/DJeMYLL4nj

The level of private sector employment in April @ADP pic.twitter.com/0rd65NzbRT

1.40pm BST

ADP have also provided a sector-by-sector breakdown of the catastrophic job losses across America last month:

Goods producers cut 4.23 million jobs:

1.33pm BST

We’ve had a lot of bad data recently, but April’s US private sector payroll is a real shocker.

At 20.3 million, last month’s job losses obliterate the previous record of around 835,000 jobs lost in February 2009 after the financial crisis.

ADP pic.twitter.com/zP1WYsapfc

Another ominous sign for the April jobs report Friday..

20.2 million private sector jobs were lost in April, according to ADP. Shattered the previous record of 835K in February 2009.

1.24pm BST

Newsflash: More than 20 million Americans lost their jobs at companies across the country last month.

ADP, which processes payrolls for companies across America, has just reported that private sector employment decreased by 20,236,000 jobs from March to April.

Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during the Great Recession.

As such, the April NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation.

BREAKING:

*U.S. ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS PLUNGE BY 20.236 MILLION IN APRIL, THE WORST JOB LOSS IN THE HISTORY OF ADP REPORT$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX pic.twitter.com/lh8oLbVMeY

1.11pm BST

US car maker General Motors has cheered Wall Street by beating profit expectations, and outlining plans to restart operations later this month.

Net income at the carmaker tumbled in the last quarter to around $300m, down from $2.16bn a year ago.

Considerable planning is under way to restart operations in North America.

Based on conversations and collaboration with unions and government officials, GM is targeting to restart the majority of manufacturing operations on May 18 in the U.S. and Canada under extensive safety measures.”

GM plans to resume production May 18 at 'majority' of N.A. operations https://t.co/2hJgKBg9Sg pic.twitter.com/JGPci4h97c

12.20pm BST

Despite the surge in UK government borrowing, there’s no shortage of willing buyers for British gilts.

Reuters has spotted that the UK borrowed for thirty years at a cheaper rate than ever before:

Britain’s government paid investors an interest rate of under 0.5% to borrow for more than 30 years on Wednesday, the lowest-ever yield at an auction for a conventional British government bond with a maturity of more than 10 years.

Investors bid for 2.6 times the 1.75 billion pounds ($2.17 billion) on offer of the 1.625% 2054 gilt, similar to the last sale of the bond on April 21, and the average successful bidder will receive an annual yield of 0.495%.

12.05pm BST

Overnight, Airbnb has set out plans to make 1,900 staff redundant – around a quarter of its global workforce – as it forecast that its revenues in 2020 will be half the $4.8bn it earned in 2019.

“We don’t know exactly when travel will return. When travel does return, it will look different.”

“People will want options that are closer to home, safer, and more affordable,”

11.13am BST

Both sterling and the euro have fallen, after this morning’s dire PMI surveys.

The pound has shed half a cent against the US dollar to $1.238, its lowest in seven sessions, as traders digested the unprecedented drop in construction activity.

“The euro and sterling are in the firing line this morning, with a host of economic releases highlighting just how dire the economic picture is irrespective on continued gains seen throughout stock markets.

“From a PMI perspective, final readings are typically perceived as a somewhat drab affair as minimal adjustments are made to previous estimates.

10.44am BST

Nearly 70,000 state-backed loans to small UK firms have been granted, totalling over £2bn, in the latest effort to protect Britain’s economy from the pandemic.

The Bounce Back Loan Scheme opened on Monday, and proved popular with struggling companies. Seven large lenders received more than 130,000 applications on Monday, the Treasury reports.

Almost 70k Bounce Back Loans worth £2.1bn approved on the first day.

Millions of pounds have already landed in people’s accounts, supporting those firms through the #coronavirus crisis.

Find out more: https://t.co/cvXhsi3iSu pic.twitter.com/o80UoJjZb1

Bounce Back Loans for small businesses - I'm still getting messages from Barclays customers saying the online application system isn't working for them
This is the 3rd day since launch

There has been a massive demand for the Bounce Back Loan and it is taking longer then expected but I can assure you that is being worked on. You should receive the email at some point today, if not received already. Hope this helps. Thank you. [ASA]

10.35am BST

Europe will experience a recession this year of a depth unmatched since the Great Depression and the UK will be one of the hardest hit, the European Commission has just warned.

Economic forecasts published by the Commission on Wednesday suggest that the UK will experience an 8.3% contraction by the end of the year, with investment down by 14% and a doubling of unemployment.

“While the immediate fallout will be far more severe for the global economy than the financial crisis, the depth of the impact will depend on the evolution of the pandemic, our ability to safely restart economic activity and to rebound thereafter. “This is a symmetric shock: all EU countries are affected and all are expected to have a recession this year.”

Eurozone heading for its worst GDP contraction on record at 7.75% this year according to @EU_Commission forecasts. In order of magnitude for 2020:
-9.7%
-9.5%
-9.4%
-8.2%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-7.4%
-7.2%
-7%
-7%
-6.9%
-6.8%
-6.8%
-6.7%
-6.5%

-6.3%
-5.8%
-5.5%
-5.4%

Non-euro:
-9.1%
-8.3%
-7.2%
-7%
-6.1%
-6%
-5.9%
-4.3%

10.21am BST

Despite this morning’s torrent of bad news, the UK stock market has nudged higher - with the blue-chip FTSE 100 and the smaller FTSE 250 index both up 0.5%.

That’ll please those investors who piled into shares last month, on hopes that the worst of the market slump is over.

Small investors poured into the stock market in April in the hope of picking up bargains, with record inflows into funds according to data provider Calastone.

A net £2.6bn was invested in equity funds in the UK in April, the highest monthly figure on record and six times more than a typical month, it said.

10.13am BST

About 70% of the country’s 10,500 fish and chips shops have reopened as owners find new ways of doing business under lockdown.

10.10am BST

Virgin Money is delaying its company wide rebrand– which will involve snuffing out the Clydesdale and Yorkshire bank names – due to Covid-19.

But the bank’s chief executive insisted the project has not been derailed due bad press linked to Richard Branson’s poorly-received attempts to tap government rescue money to save his Virgin Atlantic airline.

“Effectively we are continuing with the implementation of the our rebranding. We think it’s a great consumer brand and we’re delivering for our customers in a really customer-oriented way, which is in the DNA of that brand. So absolutely no changes to make in terms of that.

And all airlines I think are suffering from the same level of difficulty, so I’m not concerned about that.”

10.05am BST

The Covid-19 lockdown has knocked the wind out of the building industry, warns Duncan Brock of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

He fears it will take many years to recover:

“Only a few civil engineering and infrastructure projects were able to continue in April, but a tentative restart is expected in other areas such as house building and commercial construction in the short-term. As new plans from policymakers are developed over social distancing, building work may continue but not as we know it as restrictions and new safety rules are likely to make progress more difficult.

For a sector still not fully recovered from the skills shortages created by the financial crisis in 2008, the vacuum of output created by the pandemic has knocked the sector back another decade.”

9.51am BST

Tim Moore, economics director at IHS Markit, reports that UK builders are (understandably) worried about the future after effectively shutting down in April.

Many are concerned about their cash flow, despite putting many workers on the government’s furloughing scheme.

A drop in construction activity of historic proportions in April looks set to be followed by a gradual reopening of sites in the coming weeks, subject to strict reviews of safety measures.

“However, the prospect of severe disruption across the supply chain will continue over the longer-term and widespread use of the government job retention scheme has been needed to cushion the impact on employment.

9.49am BST

Construction firms reported that new business orders tumbled in April as customers shied away from signing contracts amid the lockdown.

Markit explains:

Construction companies commented on the suspension of contract awards due to business closures among clients, as well as uncertainty about the duration of stoppages on site and feasibility of starting new projects.

9.38am BST

Newsflash: Britain’s construction industry has suffered its worst ever monthly contraction, as builders downed tools to comply with the Covid-19 lockdown.

The UK construction PMI has slumped to just 8.2 for April, down from 39.3 in March, and far (far!) below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.

The vast majority of survey respondents (86%) reported a reduction in business activity since March, reflecting widespread site closures and shutdowns across the supply chain in response to the public health emergency.

9.10am BST

Just in: The eurozone’s private sector shrank at an unprecedented rate last month, led by Spain and Italy.

Data firm Markit’s eurozone composite PMI, which tracks activity across its private sector, has slumped to 13.6 for April, down from 29.7 in March.

“The extent of the euro area economic downturn was laid bare by record downturns in every country surveyed in April, with output falling at unprecedented rates across the region’s manufacturing and services sectors.

With a large part of the region’s economy shut down while COVID-19 infections spiked higher, the economic data for April were inevitably going to be bad, but the scale of the decline is still shocking. The survey data are indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of around 7.5%, far surpassing the worst decline seen in the global financial crisis. Jobs are also being lost at a rate never previously seen.

8.58am BST

Ocado is continuing to profit from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The online grocer has reported a 40% surge in UK revenue so far this quarter, up from 10% growth in the first three months of 2020.

Growth in Retail Revenue in the Second Quarter to date is 40.4% up on last year, compared to 10.3% growth in the First Quarter.

The number of items per basket appears to have passed its peak but remains high, as more normal shopping behaviours have returned, and the share of fresh and chilled products in the mix, relative to ambient, is also returning to normal.

8.49am BST

Ouch! Spain’s service sector has also suffered its worst monthly slump on record, with its PMI sliding to a mere 7.1 in April, from 23 in March.

That shows an “unprecedented” drop in activity.

Spain Markit Services PMI – April Report https://t.co/i5aytgLrSV pic.twitter.com/3J470i7sQb

8.47am BST

India’s service sector is shrinking at an unprecedented rate, due to its Covid-19 lockdown.

The Indian service sector PMI, which measures activity across the sector, has taken an almighty tumble -- dropping to just 5.4 from 49.3 in March. An extraordinary plunge, on an index where 50 points shows stagnation.

India April services PMI 5.4 from 49.3. Talk about locked down!!! pic.twitter.com/mv78wdadBs

Historical comparisons with GDP data suggest that India’s economy contracted at an annual rate of 15% in April.

It is clear that the economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic has so far been deep and far-reaching in India, but the hope is that the economy has endured the worst and things will begin to improve as lockdown measures are gradually lifted.

India Services PMI: 5.4

Wow. The lowest ever anywhere? That’s worse than I’d have expected in the aftermath of nuclear war.

8.22am BST

ITV has revealed the scale of the impact of the coronavirus, by furloughing 800 staff as advertising slumped 42% last month.

“We are now very focused on emerging from this crisis in a strong position, continuing to offer advertisers effective marketing opportunities and making preparations to restart productions safely.”

8.19am BST

German carmaker BMW has also highlighted the economic cost of Covid-19 this morning.

BMW has reported a 20% tumble in vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2020, including a 30% slump in China.

The worldwide spread of coronavirus has left international automobile markets in an extremely weak overall condition after the first three months of the year. Initially, events were dominated by a slump in registrations in China in February and March.

However, all other major automobile markets subsequently reported declines, some of them drastic, especially from March 2020 onwards.

“The decisive factor for the adjustment is that the measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic are lasting longer in several markets and are thus leading to a broader negative impact than was foreseeable in mid-March.

It is therefore apparent that delivery volumes in these markets will not – as was previously assumed - return to normal within a few weeks. The highest negative impact is expected in the second quarter of 2020.”

Carmaker BMW posts 1Q revenues +3.5% to €23.25bn but gross profit -13% to €3.5bn. Deliveries -20% in line with German market, EU demand -25%, China -50%. Operating costs up on higher raw material costs. Cuts FY guidance.https://t.co/t4jZOAAYD4

7.50am BST

Germany’s economy ministry blamed the dramatic fall in orders on the global economic shock of Covid-19, and warned that the situation will worsen.

In a statement, it says:

“It is to be expected that production will decline sharply from March onwards due to corona”

A little bit of context about the -15.6% print of 'Germany Factory Orders MoM' pic.twitter.com/itmSMr07Op

7.46am BST

Demand for heavy-duty German tools, machinery, vehicles and other equipment slumped particularly sharply in March.

Orders for these capital goods fell over 22%, while intermediate goods [used to make something else] fell 7.5%. Consumer goods, though, only dropped 1.3%.

OUCH! #Germany March factory orders fall 15.6% MoM vs -10% MoM expected and biggest slump since the series began. Capital goods orders fall 22.6% MoM, Consumer goods orders fall 1.3% MoM. Basic goods orders fall 7.5% MoM. pic.twitter.com/JtLdNUXyr1

7.34am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Domestic orders decreased by 14.8% and foreign orders fell by 16.1% in March 2020 on the previous month.

New orders from the euro area went down 17.9%, and new orders from other countries decreased by 15.0% compared with February 2020.

The Treasury cannot afford to spend £10bn a month indefinitely, but a cliff-edge end to Covid-19 wage subsidies is not the answer

What’s the safest way for Rishi Sunak to wind down his wage-support furlough scheme? Well, start by finding the correct language. The imagery in the current political talk about “weaning” businesses off an “addiction” is absurd.

When the chancellor introduced the coronavirus job retention scheme on 20 March, he said it was to “protect, as far as possible, people’s jobs and incomes”. There will be trouble if, less than two months later and with lockdown still in place, companies and their workers are portrayed as needy infants or addicts who should know better.

Recessions tend to centre on one part of the economy; coronavirus has hit them all. The road to recovery will be long

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

In a way, Britain should have been the country best prepared for the devastating impact of Covid-19 on the economy, because throughout 2019 barely a day went past without someone popping up to warn of the dangers of a cliff-edge Brexit.

But there are cliff edges and then there’s falling off the cliff, and not even the most pessimistic remainer would have been willing to predict what has happened since the UK went into lockdown at the end of March. While most of the attention has been focused – quite rightly – on the medical emergency, the economy has collapsed.

Bank outlines scale of Covid-19 shock in 2020 with forecast for deepest recession in 300 years

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 14% this year and unemployment more than double by spring as the coronavirus causes the deepest recession in modern history.

Leaving interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.1% as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures to contain its spread.

Related: Don't expect a snapback for the UK economy after lockdown is lifted | Larry Elliott

Related: Bank of England warns UK economy could shrink 14% in 2020 amid Covid-19 downturn - business live

Related: Bank of England warns UK economy could shrink 14% in 2020 amid Covid-19 downturn - business live

Britain’s central bank warns that the spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it could wipe 14% off UK GDP this year

• Latest: More than 3m Americans filed jobless claims last week
• UK could shrink 25% this quarter, Bank warns
• Bank predicts 14% fall in GDP in 2020 and rising unemployment
• BoE leaves interest rates at 0.1%, QE at £645bn
  
• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

5.13pm BST

Time to recap

Britain is facing its worst recession in 300 years, according to the latest scenario from the Bank of England. The BoE estimates that GDP will plunge by 25% this quarter, with unemployment hitting 9%, due to the abrupt halt to activity under the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

New unemployment claims filed in the past 7 weeks:

Week ending...
March 21: 3.3 million
March 28: 6.9 million (**a record**)
April 4: 6.6 million
April 11: 5.2 million
April 18: 4.4 million
April 25: 3.8 million
May 2: 3.2 million

Total: Nearly 33.5 million Americans w/out work pic.twitter.com/KZonDSSPG7

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 3.2m, down from the previous week’s figure of 3.8m and half the peak recorded 5 weeks ago, but roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. These figures support estimates of the April unemployment figure, to be released tomorrow, to reach a shocking 16%.

“Markets, however, are now looking beyond the employment data and forward to the potential recovery. With some US states now beginning to reopen for business, investors will be watching closely to see how quickly employees return to work and how rapidly economic activity bounces back.

4.46pm BST

A late rally has lifted the UK stock market to its highest level in a week.

The FTSE 100 has just closed 82 points higher at 5935, a gain of 1.4%.

4.29pm BST

The International Monetary Fund says it has approved requests for emergency pandemic aid totalling $18bn, from 50 of its 189 members, and is working through another 50 requests.

Reuters has more details;

The IMF’s executive board was working through requests at record speed and would consider a request from Egypt for both emergency financing and a stand-by lending arrangement on May 11, spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in an online briefing.

“It’s an IMF moving at an unprecedented speed in an unprecedented way to meet this unprecedented challenge which we’re all facing,” he said, noting the Fund had also temporarily suspended payments on IMF debts for 25 of the poorest countries.

3.50pm BST

The gloom in the luxury goods sector is deepening even though some countries have started to relax their coronavirus lockdowns.

“As consumers slowly emerge from lockdowns, the way they see the world will have changed and luxury brands will need to adapt.

Safety in store will be mandatory, paired with the magic of the luxury experience: creative ways to attract customers to store, or to get the product to the customer, will make the difference.”

3.47pm BST

Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management, doesn’t share the exuberance in the markets today.

“The US labor market is in the worst position since the Great Depression and is unlikely to improve sustainably anytime soon. Until widespread testing, an effective therapy, and a vaccine are in place, any improvement in employment is likely to be temporary.

Premature efforts to reopen economies undermine our progress in controlling the pandemic and risk extending the duration of the downturn.”

3.46pm BST

The Nasdaq has shrugged off Covid-19 fears because investors are rushing into “giant tech names that are considered more resilient in this crisis”, explained Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM.

That includes Amazon (up 27% this year) and Microsoft (up 16%).

2.53pm BST

Remarkably, the US Nasdaq index has now caught up all this year’s losses.

The tech-focused share index is now flat for 2020, thanks to strong recoveries in major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq is positive for the year. pic.twitter.com/HtkHzXAzEd

2.34pm BST

As expected, the US stock market has indeed jumped in early trading.

Jobless claims should be back below 1M by the 2nd or 3rd week of June; the rate of decay is quite consistent. pic.twitter.com/OtOoeir28P

2.18pm BST

European stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains, despite the latest grim US jobs data.

Wall Street is expected to open higher too, with the Dow up around 1% in pre-market trading.

Repeat after me.

Equities are forward looking jobless claims backward.

Therefore entirely normal at times for them to move in different directions. And yet we get the same old headlines asking why.

2.01pm BST

The spectre of unemployment is haunting America - but in some states more than others:

Jobless Claims Since March 20th as a Percent of Total State Employment: pic.twitter.com/me0mbMFvQj

1.58pm BST

Before the Covid-19 crisis began, America had never lost a million jobs in a single week before.

It has now suffered seven consecutive weeks of massive job losses, as firms have slashed staff under the coronavirus lockdown.

33.5 million Americans have filed jobless claims over the last 7 weeks. https://t.co/WIOd3ZzpVq pic.twitter.com/8vqdipxopI

1.42pm BST

Our US business editor Dominic Rushe says some US states are really struggling to cope with the unprecedented surge in unemployment.

He writes:

The pace of layoffs has overwhelmed state unemployment systems across the country. Over a million people in North Carolina have now made unemployment insurance benefit claims, equivalent to 20% of the state’s workforce.

Some 4 million have applied in California and the state’s jobless benefits fund is “very close” to running out, governor Gavin Newsom said this week.

Related: Coronavirus: three million more Americans file for unemployment

1.41pm BST

Some instant reaction to the latest US jobless report:

The effects of the #coronavirusrecession continue to ripple through the economy. In the week ending in May 2, 3.2 million workers filed for initial unemployment benefits, according to the @USDOL’s Weekly #unemploymentinsurance (UI) claims report. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/XUFFtG3Rpp

3.17 MILLION people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. Almost 33.5 MILLION filing jobless claims in 7 weeks. 1 in 5 Americans unemployed. These are lives and family shaken, devastated.

Though still tremendously elevated, the 3.2 mln new unempl claims continues downward trend as initial surge passes. But # of Americans receiving jobless benefits, pierced 22 mln. pic.twitter.com/b4SF5apZR6

1.33pm BST

Newsflash: Another 3.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobless crisis rages.

That’s down from 3.8m in the previous week, but still another awful number.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,169,000 for the week ending 5/2 (-677,000).

Insured unemployment was 22,647,000 for the week ending 4/25 (+4,636,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

1.28pm BST

Stocks are continuing to rise in London, seemingly lifted by hopes that some UK lockdown restrictions will be eased soon.

The FTSE 100 is now up 63 points or 1.1% at 5917, after the government confirmed that Boris Johnson will reveal his strategy on Sunday evening:

NEW: Boris Johnson will be giving a statement at 7pm on Sunday discussing the route out of the #COVID19 lockdown and the government's next steps.

With oil, mining and banking stocks all in the green, the FTSE added another 0.9% as the session went on, sticking its nose across 5900 for the first time in a week. This would suggest that investors have swallowed the bitter 14% contraction in 2020 pill offered up by the BoE, thanks to the spoonful of sugar that is the expectation of a 15% rebound in 2021.

Elsewhere the markets were just as perky, investors continuing to express their relief at the various ongoing and soon-to-be unveiled lockdown-easing measures around the globe. The DAX passed 10700 as it climbed 0.8%, while the CAC struck 4470 following a 50 point increase.

1.04pm BST

12.48pm BST

Our economic editor Larry Elliott says the BoE is pinning its hopes on a V-shaped recovery to GDP - and pushing banks to do their bit.

One of the key messages from the Bank to the high street lenders was that they stand to lose more by not lending than they will by lending freely, because there will be more long-term scarring of the economy, more companies going bust and more losses for them to swallow. At his press conference, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was ramming home this point to lenders at at every opportunity.

Forecasting is tough at the best of times: in the current circumstances – where there is uncertainty about how fast restrictions will be lifted, how consumers will behave, and whether there will be a second wave of infection – it is all but impossible.

All that can really be said is that the risks to the Bank’s scenario are skewed heavily to the downside. Threadneedle Street decided against providing more stimulus at this week’s meeting, but it is only a question of time.

Related: Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle

12.35pm BST

New: BoE governor Andrew Bailey tells me while it's unlikely, he doesn't rule out cutting UK interest rates into negative territory (unlike M Carney):
"Previous governors didn't have in mind this scenario we're in today. And I think it's wise not to rule anything off the table."

12.33pm BST

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has told Sky News that the slump in the UK economy this year is “unique, certainly in modern times”.

But he’s also optimistic that activity is likely to recover “much more quickly” than after a normal recession:

.@bankofengland Governor Andrew Bailey says despite the "unique" challenges of #coronavirus, he believes the lifting of the lockdown will see activity in the economy recover 'quicker than it would if was a normal recession.'

Read more here: https://t.co/xVqko9FY6J pic.twitter.com/heyAfBtIMQ

12.09pm BST

It’s been a busy morning for telecoms news too.

Cable operator Virgin Media and mobile network O2 are merging, to create a £31bn “national champion” to challenge BT and Sky in the UK.

Related: Virgin Media and O2 owners confirm £31bn mega-merger in UK

Related: BT suspends dividend to free up 5G and broadband investment

11.50am BST

Here’s Anna Stewart of CNN on the Bank of England’s forecasts:

Bank of England says the economy will contract by 25% in the second quarter. Yes it’s bad.

However, it’s far better than OBR forecast of -35% a couple of weeks ago.

Plus take a look at the projected recovery... pic.twitter.com/PMlsLDAPXe

Sharp rise in unemployment - expected to hit 9% in Q2.

However, compare that to :
WH economist Kevin Hassett has warned of 20% unemployment in April

11.43am BST

London’s Evening Standard points out that the Covid-19 slump will be three times as severe as after the financial crisis of 2008.

Today’s ⁦@EveningStandard⁩ on the plans to stagger the rush hour and the latest Bank Of England forecasts pic.twitter.com/A811vwVaTL

11.35am BST

Covid-19 lockdowns has already pushed British Airway’s parent company into the red.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

British Airways owner International Airlines Group made a £1.5bn loss in the first three months of the year, as chief executive Willie Walsh said it would take three years for passenger demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

IAG has halted 94% of its flights in response to travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, causing it to bleed cash. Last week, British Airways set out plans to make up to 12,000 of its staff redundant because of the global collapse in air travel.

Related: British Airways owner reports £1.5bn loss due to coronavirus

11.11am BST

Despite the Bank of England’s gloomy prognosis for this year, stocks and the pound are a little higher this morning.

That’s partly because the BoE expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, after a 14% contraction this year [although arithmetically that still leaves the economy smaller]

11.03am BST

The Bank of England’s new governor, Andrew Bailey, has hinted that the BoE could expand its stimulus programme at its next meeting in June.

Bloomberg’s Jill Ward has the details:

Two of the BOE’s nine policy makers wanted to immediately increase bond purchases -- the main policy tool now that the key interest rate is near zero -- by 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) in a decision announced early Thursday. The rest agreed downside risks “might necessitate further monetary policy action.”

Bailey, who earlier pledged “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the economy during the coronavirus crisis, told reporters that the fact no action was taken this time doesn’t rule out a response soon.

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that policy makers could expand monetary stimulus as soon as next month as the U.K. faces an economic slump that could be the worst in Europe"https://t.co/iQK3nKt2ef pic.twitter.com/XMtpY5HHsH

10.48am BST

Trade unions are urging the UK government not to make the economic downturn worse by turning off its furlough scheme too quickly.

The TUC says that today’s statistics showing that two-thirds of firms have tapped the Jobs Retention scheme shows it is vital.

Around half of the workforce are working from home, but varies drastically by industry.

A big majority of workers in the information and communication and professional sectors are working from home, whereas it's a small minority in other industries. pic.twitter.com/QDN3wcbIVk

Around a quarter (23%) of businesses have ceased or paused trading.

This rises to around 80% in the arts and accommodation and food sectors. pic.twitter.com/IsHQKI5wYF

10.37am BST

UK banks have approved an additional 8,550 government-backed business loans worth £1.4bn within the past week, but are still struggling to increase the pace of approvals amid rising demand.

The original coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS) has now lent around £5.5bn to 33,812 small and medium sized businesses since the programme was launched on 23 March.

“Bank staff have worked tirelessly over the past week to provide businesses with the finance they need, delivering another £1.4 billion of lending under the CBIL scheme, on top of over £2 billion in Bounce Back Loans targeted at smaller firms and sole traders.”

10.14am BST

Hat-tip to Ben Chu of the Independent, for showing just how grim the Bank of England’s forecasts are:

The Bank of of England's scenario for UK GDP for the full year of 2020 is...

-14%

That would be the worst year for the economy since 1706 according to the Bank's own historical dataset pic.twitter.com/aKflRovluH

We have estimates of quarterly UK GDP going back to 1920

The Bank's scenario has -25% in the second quarter of 2020.

That would be by far the worst seen: pic.twitter.com/7SH34zwqPW

10.08am BST

The Treasury Committee chairman Mel Stride has ordered Barclays to explain why customers are still having trouble accessing bounce back loans - which are meant to protect UK businesses from this year’s slump.

The 100% government-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme is meant to get cash to struggling businesses far more quickly than other programmes. Any impediments put those firms at risk, Stride said:

“Issues that hamper this are very frustrating to customers and may in some cases threaten business survival.

“I raised the problems that some people were having in accessing the Barclays online system with their CEO during our public committee hearing on Monday and was assured then that the system was able to cope well.

10.01am BST

Just in: nearly a quarter of UK firms have temporarily closed due to the pandemic, and two-thirds are furloughing some staff.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics. It just reported that 23% of businesses who responded to its latest survey said they had “temporarily closed or paused trading” last month.

9.50am BST

The Bank of England has also shown how its scenario compare to City economists’ forecasts -- where the range is rather, er, broad:

Here's my fave chart from this morning's Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - it's the all-important "nobody knows" chart. pic.twitter.com/vsozkW5fC6

9.43am BST

The key message from the Bank of England today is that activity in the UK has fallen sharply, and is going to continue to plunge during this quarter.

Explaining why it thinks the UK will shrink 14% this year, it says:

Official data are sparse at this stage, but high‑frequency indicators suggest that consumer spending has fallen steeply since March. In large part, that reflects the impact of both enforced and voluntary social distancing, with some additional drag from lower incomes and confidence about the outlook. In those areas most affected, such as tourism and eating out, indicators including aircraft departures and data on the number of seated diners at restaurants suggest that spending has all but come to a halt.

The closure of businesses and widespread moves to working from home have reduced the number of journeys by car and public transport substantially. In addition, spending on many durables is likely to have been delayed. One area that has proved stronger is spending on food, as households substitute spending at supermarkets for eating out. Nevertheless, consumer spending in aggregate has fallen very significantly. In 2020 Q2, it is expected to be almost 30% lower than in 2019 Q4.

9.29am BST

There are also signs that UK house prices are starting to slide, amid the lockdown.

Halifax has reported that prices fell by 0.6% in April, on top of a 0.3% dip in March:

The #Halifax reported #UK #house #prices dipped 0.6% month-on-month in April after a revised fall of 0.3% in March. The annual rate of increase moderated to 2.7% in April from 3.0% in March and a peak of 4.1% in January (which had been the highest level since February 2018).

9.19am BST

The Covid-19 crisis has prompted Norway’s central bank to slash its interest rates to zero.

In a surprise move, the Norges Banks just lowered its key borrowing rate from 0.25% to 0.0%, a record low.

Norges Bank now predicts the mainland economy, which excludes oil and gas output, will contract by 5.2% in 2020, down from a March 13 forecast of 0.4% growth. It expects growth of 3.0% in 2021, up from 1.3% seen earlier.

BREAKING: #Norway's central bank delivers surprise rate cut to 0% in a unanimous decision. Don't envisage making further rate cuts but outlook and balance of risks imply very expansionary monetary policy stance. #Norges

#Norway's central bank lowers its benchmark rate to 0.00%! pic.twitter.com/e0pLjZzaSR

9.05am BST

My colleague Richard Partington writes that the Bank of England has sounded the alarm about the slump in the UK economy this year:

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 25% this spring and unemployment more than double as the coronavirus pandemic brings the country to an effective standstill.

Leaving interest rates on hold as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures used to contain its spread.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

9.01am BST

The Resolution Foundation think tank is concerned that the Bank of England predicts such a sharp jump in unemployment, and only a slow recovery in the labour market:

That 14 per cent hit to the economy is equivalent to around £300 billion, or £9,000 for every family in Britain, and shows why the Bank and Government are right to have protected households as much as possible with policies such as the Job Retention Scheme.

While the Bank’s scenario implies the UK economy will return towards its pre-pandemic growth path in 2021, it projects unemployment to remain above its pre-pandemic path until at least 2023 – after reaching a 25-year high of 9 per cent this year.

Stark unemployment forecast from the Bank of England this morning, and expects 25% contraction in the economy in the quarter to June. pic.twitter.com/pHQZPwXHCN

8.45am BST

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, fears the UK economy could shrink even more sharply than the Bank of England has forecast.

The Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year, when the UK-EU withdrawal agreement ends, creates added uncertainty, she writes:

“Despite the stark numbers issued by the Bank of England today, additional pressure on the economy is likely. Some social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus, with people also remaining reluctant to socialise and spend. That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.

“Looking at the medium term, beyond the impact of reduced investment, other forces could to be in play dampening future productivity. Supply chains are likely to be reconfigured in light of this crisis, potentially increasing geographical diversification and reducing efficiency in order to increase resilience. ‘Just in time’ operations are also likely to be a thing of the past, further eroding productivity. On the other hand, we could see significant consolidation among SMEs, lifting productivity among the long tail of underperforming businesses.

The only good news today is that the Bank expects this economic bombshell to be short-lived, and for the economy to bounce back rapidly. However, the MPC itself concedes it is flying blind to a large extent, warning that a pandemic like this is “especially difficult to quantify”.

“While the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy stance at today’s meeting, it is surely only a matter of time before they decide to. The 7-2 split on whether to increase asset purchases indicates a continued dovish bias from certain voting members.

With the Bank hoovering up gilts equivalent to those issued since the additional £200 billion in quantitative easing was announced, it will run out of firepower to support government spending within in months. Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.

8.42am BST

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Bank of England to delay its much-anticipated bank climate stress tests.

The central bank has concluded that UK banks have enough to deal with, without calculating how they are positioned to handle the climate emergency (a key concern for former governor Mark Carney).

“Recognizing current pressures on firms, and in light of the responses to the December 2019 Discussion Paper on the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario, the PRC and FPC have agreed to postpone the launch of the exercise until at least mid-2021.

This delay reflects a desire to maintain the ambitious scope of the exercise, whilst giving firms enough time to invest sufficiently in their capabilities to allow them to deliver to a high standard.”

8.20am BST

The Bank’s new Financial Stability Report says UK households have entered the lockdown in a stronger position than before the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to substantial support including payment holidays on mortgages and credit cards.

However, the Bank warned that the sharp economic downturn would put pressure on personal finances and that it would have to keep a close eye on potential risks that may emerge once those payment holidays expire. That could include a fresh wave of customers attempting to refinance their debt.

8.12am BST

There is some good news.... the Bank of England is confident that Britain’s banks can ride out the Covid-19 pandemic, and handle a 14% plunge in GDP this year.

It says the banking sector is sufficiently capitalised to cover losses during the outbreak, especially as the BoE is providing more support to the sector.

Businesses and households will need to borrow to get through this period. We want banks and building societies to expand lending. We have tested the major UK banks. They are strong enough to keep lending, which will support the economy and limit losses to themselves.

We are offering more long-term funding to banks that increase their lending.

8.04am BST

Here’s a table outlining the Bank of England’s new Covid-19 scenario.

As you can see, it shows UK GDP shrinking 14% this year, business investment crumbling by 26%, household spending down 14%, and average earnings down 2%:

7.54am BST

The Bank of England has produced a 20-minute video, explaining today’s monetary policy decisions and its new scenario for how the UK economy will shrink this year:

7.48am BST

Reuters points out that the Bank of England is predicting the worst economic slump in centuries this year -- and a very strong recovery in 2021:

The Bank of England held off further stimulus measures but said it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus hammering which could cause the country’s biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 before a bounceback in 2021.

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at its all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at £645bn.

Bank of England gives a big "V" to economists who think there'll be a lasting hit from the COVID-19 slump.

Illustrative scenario shows 14% drop in GDP in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021 of... 15%! pic.twitter.com/Wf5Z4Rp9Ds

7.45am BST

In another startling forecast, the Bank of England predicts that the global economy could contract by 20% this quarter.

It warns that the coronavirus pandemic, and the lockdown measures introduced to slow it, are hitting economic activity extremely hard:

The spread of the virus and the measures taken to protect public health have caused a substantial reduction in activity around the world. Survey indicators such as the output components of PMIs have fallen to record‑low levels since the start of the year, and suggest that many countries have experienced extremely sharp falls in activity.

Bank staff estimate that UK‑weighted world GDP declined by around 4% in Q1 and could fall by over 20% in Q2. World trade has also declined significantly, and is expected to contract by around twice as much as global GDP in 2020. While many major countries have introduced wage subsidy schemes to reduce job losses, unemployment has increased markedly around the world and many more employees are working less than usual.

7.34am BST

Despite the government’s efforts, the Bank of England predicts that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months.

Its new Covid-19 scenario suggests the UK jobless rate could soon spike to 9% - up from 4% at present - even though the government is encouraging firms to furlough staff.

As activity has fallen, the number of people in work has dropped sharply. It is likely that the Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has materially reduced the number of redundancies. Early data suggest that applications for furlough have been received from 800,000 companies covering over six million jobs.

The number of people furloughed might be a little lower, though, as some could have more than one furloughed job. While the CJRS has significantly limited job losses, the flow of new Universal Credit benefit claims and early indicators of redundancies suggest that unemployment has risen sharply over the past couple of months. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9% in Q2.

7.24am BST

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year.

It has drawn up a new scenario, showing how the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt growth.

The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world. Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.

The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently. Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly.

Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation is expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand.

7.11am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Some early breaking news: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at their record lows, at its policy meeting today.

The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April. Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.

Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased. According to the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, companies’ sales are expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower.

Former Bank of England governor attacks government’s response to pandemic

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Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor during the financial crisis, has warned that Britain’s economy will take longer than expected to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Launching an attack on the government over its emergency loan guarantee scheme for businesses struggling during the crisis, Lord King said ministers needed to urgently “get a grip” on the situation to prevent lasting damage to the economy.

Related: War and the weather: what caused the huge economic slump of 1706?

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Ukraine locked down early and has a far lower rate of coronavirus infections than some countries in Western Europe, plus fewer than 400 deaths so far. Yet 20 percent of cases are among medical personnel – one of the worst rates in the world. By the health ministry's own admission, that's due to a severe shortage of protective equipment. The ministry says it's doing its best to correct the situation and buy the necessary protective suits and masks. Yet it has been reluctant to co-operate with the country's independent medical procurement agency, set up to prevent corruption in state purchases.

"And the nights grew hot with the bulk of it, and the days were spent in toil and anguish, feeding and walking, feeding and walking-"