we

One Thing We Can't Build Alone in Iraq

When Columbia University sociologist Peter Bearman dived into the world of the white-gloved workers who open the front doors of expensive New York apartment buildings, he found that most people who applied for jobs as doormen never got one. Most doormen, however, had not applied for their jobs.




we

With Power Comes a Selfish Point of View

In the interest of promoting democracy, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, recently announced that he had to lock up most of his country's democracy activists. And because he wanted the Pakistani Supreme Court to independently rule on whether he could continue as president, Musharraf also...




we

When We Cook Up a Memory, Experience Is Just One Ingredient

People hate Mondays. And they love Fridays. The Carpenters crooned about being blue in "Rainy Days and Mondays." The restaurant chain T.G.I. Friday's might restrict its clientele to workaholics if it were to rename itself T.G.I. Monday's.




we

The Power of Political Misinformation

Have you seen the photo of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin brandishing a rifle while wearing a U.S. flag bikini? Have you read the e-mail saying Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama was sworn into the U.S. Senate with his hand placed on the Koran? Both are fabricated -- and...




we

Mass Suffering and Why We Look the Other Way

When President-elect Barack Obama, an early opponent of the Iraq war, asked Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- who helped to authorize the war -- to be his secretary of state, many liberals scratched their heads.




we

Between Hubris and Vision

President Obama appears serenely confident as he goes about fixing the worst global financial crisis in more than half a century while simultaneously revamping the national health-care system, changing the way Americans use and produce energy, giving tax breaks to 95 percent of all households, an...




we

CROSSWORD! (or: Diversion as a vehicle for conversation on power and usage)

There is so much that is peculiar, irregular, silly, or downright twisted in mathematical verbiage that, certainly, we could all benefit from some soul-searching on the language of our culture. Some of mathematics usage is confusing (e. g. overuse of … Continue reading




we

Cracked Foundation, Uncertain Future: Structural Weaknesses in the Common European Asylum System

During the 2015–16 migration crisis, European asylum systems were stretched to a breaking point. Yet many of the structural issues that contributed to failures to register newcomers, insufficient reception capacity, and growing backlogs of asylum cases existed before—and many remain unresolved. This report critically evaluates Common European Asylum System legal and operational shortcomings at a time when reform is on the table.




we

Children of Immigrants and Child Welfare Systems: Key Policy and Practice

Marking the release of an MPI report, this webinar examines the intersection between immigration and child welfare systems and promising child welfare policies and agency approaches to address the needs of children of immigrants and their families.




we

Introduction to The Children of Green Knowe

My first exposure to Lucy Maria Boston's Green Knowe series came when my older brother took a an introduction to children's literature class during his first year in college. He was required to read The Children of Green Knowe. I found the copy that he had checked out of our village library, loved it, and worked my way through the other books in the series:

  • The Children of Green Knowe (1954)
  • The Chimneys of Green Knowe (1958) (published in the US as The Treasure of Green Knowe)
  • The River at Green Knowe (1959)
  • A Stranger at Green Knowe (1961)
  • An Enemy at Green Knowe (1964)
  • The Stones of Green Knowe (1976)

  • The last book was released after I read the series, and I remember how excited I was to find that the author was still alive and writing.

    What struck me the most about the books was the strong sense of place that Boston was able to create. The house and the grounds were as alive as the people in the books, and the past of the house was as alive as the character's present.

    Years later, I moved to Seattle and was able to take advantage of the wonderful collection of its original main library, which has subsequently been demolished. The library had copies of Boston's two memoirs Perverse and Foolish, and more importantly to me, Memory in a House. This second memoir is Boston's account of how as a 45-year-old divorced single mother whose son was at Cambridge, she heard about a house for sale by a river, bought it, renovated it, and began to write books influenced by the history and atmosphere of the house. The house itself is the Manor at Hemingford Grey, which is still open to visitors.

    For those who have not read the books, these links will provide more information:

    http://www.greenknowe.co.uk/index.html - Lucy's daughter-in-law still owns the house and gives tours of the house and gardens.

    The Children of Green Knowe miniseries - this was a BBC production in 1980's which was never released on DVD. You can watch it on Youtube at :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdhiI8XmJQI&list=UULK5kbcKDbN_legADgNfX5g&index=54

    Chimneys of Green Knowe was filmed at the Manor of Hemingford Grey. Directed by Julian Fellowes (Downton Abbey) it was released in 2009 as From Time to Time.

    Exterior shots of the gardens from a  visitor who did not see the house:
    http://prairie.typepad.com/my_weblog/photography-the-manor-house-hemingford-grey-lucy-boston-flowers/




    • Children of Green Knowe
    • Lucy Maria Boston
    • Manor at Hemingford Grey
    • Memory in a House

    we

    The Green Knowe Books & Multiculturalism in Children's Literature

    Recently while listening to WNYC, I heard a segment about the lack of diversity in children's literature. While the US's population is becoming more diverse, it is apparently not reflected in children's books. Lucy Maria Boston was a head of the curve since four of the Green Knowe books could be regarded as multicultural since they contain not only Asian and African main characters but also a physically disabled character and deal with the issues of slavery and exile due to war.

    Ping, a young refugee from Burma, is the main human character in A Stranger at Greene Knowe and a supporting character in The River at Green Knowe and An Enemy at Green Knowe. Ping has spent most of his life in a hostel for displaced children and goes to stay at Green Knowe during his summer holiday. He is eventually asked by Mrs. Oldknow to live with her and Tolly at Green Knowe. His experiences as a homeless child trapped in the grey world of the London home cause him to appreciate not only the natural world around the house but also to empathize with the escaped gorilla, Hanno. Boston wanted to dedicate Stranger to a gorilla keeper that she knew but was forbidden to do so by the zoo since it portrayed captivity for animals as cruel and harmful to the animal. When Green Knowe is under siege from evil in Enemy, Ping calls back Hanno with a traditional prayer to help save the house.

    Jacob, in Treasure at Green Knowe, is bought as a child in a slave auction by Captain Oldknowe as a companion for the Captain's blind daughter, Susan. Susan's mother is uninterested in Susan since she views her as an unmarriageable burden. Susan's blindness puts her outside of the normal constraints for an upper-class girl so she can spend her time climbing trees with Jacob and learning how to write with him and their tutor Jonathan. Susan's brother Sefton views Jacob as less than human, buying him clothes patterned on those of an organ-grinder's monkey. Both Jacob and Susan rely on each other to navigate the rules of a society that views them as worthless because of their respective race and disability. They work together to educate themselves and lead successful adult lives despite their differences in race, sex, and station.

    Despite the fifty or so years since they were written, the books still hold up due to the quality of the writing, the strong characterizations, and the universal themes. They are well-worth being placed on any reading list, multicultural or not. Good children's books should be read whether or not they are written by US authors.




    we

    As Brussels seeks fresh ideas to reform the Common European Asylum System, innovative member state responses offer a wealth of lessons–and some caution

    Brussels and Gütersloh, 05.03.2020 — Anticipated reform of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), which was high on the agenda as nearly 2 million asylum seekers arrived at Europe’s door in 2015-16, quickly fell victim to EU Member State competing views on what constitutes equal burden-sharing, domestic politics around migration and the urgency of first addressing overtaxed national asylum systems.




    we

    Moroccan chicken skewers with feta, pea and tomato tabbouleh

    1 onion, grated 1 cup Greek yoghurt 1/2 cup olive oil 1/2 lemon, juiced 2 cloves of garlic, crushed 1 tsp. smoked paprika 1/2 tsps. ground coriander 1/2 tsps. ground cumin 500g chicken thighs, cut in to 3 cm pieces 2 tbsps. sesame seeds, toasted tabbouleh 100g burghul 2 1/2 cups frozen peas 1 handful of flat leaf parsley, chopped 1 punnit of cherry tomatoes, halved 1 handful of mint leaves, lightly chopped 3 shallots, thinly sliced 200g Greek feta, crumbled 1/3 cup olive oil 1/2 lemon, juiced 1/2 tsp. ground cinnamon Good pinch of sea salt flakes and black pepper




    we

    Garden peas, cauliflower, almonds, lemon

    This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of George Calombaris. George's new book is called "Greek."




    we

    Spinach and Sweet Potato Frittata

    The frittata has almost overtaken the classic quiche. It is a healthier option as it doesn't have the extra kilojoules of a pastry case. It's Italian in origin and a versatile dish as you can serve it hot or at room temperature for lunch or dinner, alone or with a salad or vegetables, as part of an Antipasto selection or cut in bite-size pieces to serve as a nibble with drinks.




    we

    Greek cauliflower with a minted maple and tamarind sauce

    150g panko crumbs 1 clove of crushed garlic 1 tsp. ground ginger 2 tsps. curry powder 1 tsp. ground cumin 2 tsps. ground coriander 1 tsp. black mustard seeds 1 tsp. chilli flakes 2 tsps. caster sugar Pinch of salt 3 free range eggs, beaten 100g plain flour with a pinch of salt 1 cauliflower, broken in to small florets Sunflower oil for deep frying Sauce: Handful of chopped parsley Handful of chopped coriander leaves Handful of chopped mint leaves 1 tbsp. tamarind paste 1 tsp. maple syrup 1 tbsp. olive oil 2 tsps. lime juice Pinch of salt 2 tbsps. water




    we

    Sweet and Sour Pork

    This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Tony Tan




    we

    Swedish meatballs

    400g pork/beef mince 1 egg 1 onion, grated 1/4 cups fresh breadcrumbs 1/2 tsp. allspice 1/4 tsp. ground cloves Pinch of nutmeg 1 tbsp. olive oil 20g butter 150ml beef stock 2 tbsp. brown sugar Lingonberry sauce, sour cream, dill and parsley potatoes, baby cos leaves and cucumber wedges to serve




    we

    Brussels Sprout Caesar with Croutons, Borlotti Beans and Sunflower Seeds

    This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, shared by Hetty McKinnon, founder of Surry Hills community kitchen Arthur Street Kitchen and author of 'Neighbourhood'.





    we

    CAULIFLOWER PAKORAS WITH MINTED YOGURT

    These tasty little Indian Fritters will convert a body who has a dislike of cauliflower. Served simply with a minty yogurt they are simply delicious.






    we

    Indian cauliflower rice and coriander pesto

    Cauliflower rice: 1 head cauliflower, cut into florets 2 tbsps. ghee Coriander pesto: 1 large bunch coriander 1 garlic clove 1/4 cup cashews 2 tbsps. parmesan, finely grated 1 lime, zested and juiced 3 tbsps. coconut oil




    we

    Japanese sweet ginger meatballs

    1 bunch of spring onions, finely chopped 250 g minced beef 250 g minced pork 20 g grated ginger 1 egg 2 tsps. roasted sesame oil 1 tbsp. cornflour, plus extra for dusting sunflower oil, for shallow frying 1 tbsp. white sesame seeds salt and ground white pepper For the sweet ginger sauce: 30 g grated ginger 3 tbsps. soy sauce 125 ml dashi stock or 1 tsp instant dashi powder mixed with water 2 tbsps. sugar 3 tbsps. mirin 3 tbsps. rice vinegar 1 tsp cornflour




    we

    Welcome Wears Thin for Colombians in Ecuador as Venezuelans Become More Visible

    Though Colombians displaced by a decades-long civil war found a welcome refuge in Ecuador, life has become more difficult for them in recent years, in part as a result of the influx of Venezuelans seeking safety. This article draws on surveys of migrants in Quito, comparing and contrasting the experiences of Colombians and Venezuelans, and assessing their perceptions of discrimination, victimization, trust in institutions, and hopes for the future.




    we

    An Uneven Welcome: Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration

    Large-scale displacement from Venezuela and Nicaragua is reshaping the migration landscape in much of Latin America and the Caribbean. This report, accompanied by the launch of a new Migration Portal offering research and analysis on the region, examines the immigration and integration policy responses of 11 countries, including pathways to legal status and measures to integrate newcomers into schools, health-care systems, and labor markets.




    we

    Microvascular and Cardiovascular Outcomes According to Renal Function in Patients Treated With Once-Weekly Exenatide: Insights From the EXSCEL Trial

    OBJECTIVE

    To evaluate the impact of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on microvascular and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes by baseline renal function in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL).

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    Least squares mean difference (LSMD) in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from baseline between the EQW and placebo groups was calculated for 13,844 participants. Cox regression models were used to estimate effects by group on incident macroalbuminuria, retinopathy, and major adverse CV events (MACE). Interval-censored time-to-event models estimated effects on renal composite 1 (40% eGFR decline, renal replacement, or renal death) and renal composite 2 (composite 1 variables plus macroalbuminuria).

    RESULTS

    EQW did not change eGFR significantly (LSMD 0.21 mL/min/1.73 m2 [95% CI –0.27 to 0.70]). Macroalbuminuria occurred in 2.2% of patients in the EQW group and in 2.5% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.70–1.07]). Neither renal composite was reduced with EQW in unadjusted analyses, but renal composite 2 was reduced after adjustment (HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.74–0.98]). Retinopathy rates did not differ by treatment group or in the HbA1c-lowering or prior retinopathy subgroups. CV outcomes in those with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 did not differ by group. Those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 had nominal risk reductions for MACE, all-cause mortality, and CV death, but interactions by renal function group were significant for only stroke (HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.58–0.93]; P for interaction = 0.035) and CV death (HR 1.08 [95% CI 0.85–1.38]; P for interaction = 0.031).

    CONCLUSIONS

    EQW had no impact on unadjusted retinopathy or renal outcomes. CV risk was modestly reduced only in those with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in analyses unadjusted for multiplicity.




    we

    Confirming the Bidirectional Nature of the Association Between Severe Hypoglycemic and Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From EXSCEL

    OBJECTIVE

    We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    In a post hoc analysis of 14,752 Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) participants, we examined time-dependent associations between SHEs and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), fatal/nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (hACS), hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as time-dependent associations between nonfatal CV events and subsequent SHEs.

    RESULTS

    SHEs were uncommon and not associated with once-weekly exenatide therapy (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.94–1.36], P = 0.179). In fully adjusted models, SHEs were associated with an increased risk of subsequent ACM (1.83 [1.38–2.42], P < 0.001), CV death (1.60 [1.11–2.30], P = 0.012), and hHF (2.09 [1.37–3.17], P = 0.001), while nonfatal MI (2.02 [1.35–3.01], P = 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.30 [1.25–4.23], P = 0.007), hACS (2.00 [1.39–2.90], P < 0.001), and hHF (3.24 [1.98–5.30], P < 0.001) were all associated with a subsequent increased risk of SHEs. The elevated bidirectional time-dependent hazards linking SHEs and a composite of all CV events were approximately constant over time, with those individuals at dual risk showing higher comorbidity scores compared with those without.

    CONCLUSIONS

    These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events as well as greater risk of CV events after SHEs, validate a bidirectional relationship between CV events and SHEs in patients with high comorbidity scores.




    we

    Association Between the Use of Antidepressants and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Large, Population-Based Cohort Study in Japan

    OBJECTIVE

    This study aimed to reveal the associations between the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes and the duration of antidepressant use and the antidepressant dose, and between antidepressant use after diabetes onset and clinical outcomes.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    In this large-scale retrospective cohort study in Japan, new users of antidepressants (exposure group) and nonusers (nonexposure group), aged 20–79 years, were included between 1 April 2006 and 31 May 2015. Patients with a history of diabetes or receipt of antidiabetes treatment were excluded. Covariates were adjusted by using propensity score matching; the associations were analyzed between risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes and the duration of antidepressant use/dose of antidepressant in the exposure and nonexposure groups by using Cox proportional hazards models. Changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level were examined in groups with continuous use, discontinuation, or a reduction in the dose of antidepressants.

    RESULTS

    Of 90,530 subjects, 45,265 were in both the exposure and the nonexposure group after propensity score matching; 5,225 patients (5.8%) developed diabetes. Antidepressant use was associated with the risk of diabetes onset in a time- and dose-dependent manner. The adjusted hazard ratio was 1.27 (95% CI 1.16–1.39) for short-term low-dose and 3.95 (95% CI 3.31–4.72) for long-term high-dose antidepressant use. HbA1c levels were lower in patients who discontinued or reduced the dose of antidepressants (F[2,49] = 8.17; P < 0.001).

    CONCLUSIONS

    Long-term antidepressant use increased the risk of type 2 diabetes onset in a time- and dose-dependent manner. Glucose tolerance improved when antidepressants were discontinued or the dose was reduced after diabetes onset.




    we

    Epigenetic Link Between Statin Therapy and Type 2 Diabetes

    OBJECTIVE

    To investigate the role of epigenetics in statins’ diabetogenic effect comparing DNA methylation (DNAm) between statin users and nonusers in an epigenome-wide association study in blood.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    Five cohort studies’ participants (n = 8,270) were classified as statin users when they were on statin therapy at the time of DNAm assessment with Illumina 450K or EPIC array or noncurrent users otherwise. Associations of DNAm with various outcomes like incident type 2 diabetes, plasma glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance (HOMA of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR]) as well as with gene expression were investigated.

    RESULTS

    Discovery (n = 6,820) and replication (n = 1,450) phases associated five DNAm sites with statin use: cg17901584 (1.12 x 10–25 [DHCR24]), cg10177197 (3.94 x 10–08 [DHCR24]), cg06500161 (2.67 x 10–23 [ABCG1]), cg27243685 (6.01 x 10–09 [ABCG1]), and cg05119988 (7.26 x 10–12 [SC4MOL]). Two sites were associated with at least one glycemic trait or type 2 diabetes. Higher cg06500161 methylation was associated with higher fasting glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR, and type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.34 [95% CI 1.22, 1.47]). Mediation analyses suggested that ABCG1 methylation partially mediates the effect of statins on high insulin and HOMA-IR. Gene expression analyses showed that statin exposure and ABCG1 methylation were associated with ABCG1 downregulation, suggesting epigenetic regulation of ABCG1 expression. Further, outcomes insulin and HOMA-IR were significantly associated with ABCG1 expression.

    CONCLUSIONS

    This study sheds light on potential mechanisms linking statins with type 2 diabetes risk, providing evidence on DNAm partially mediating statins’ effects on insulin traits. Further efforts shall disentangle the molecular mechanisms through which statins may induce DNAm changes, potentially leading to ABCG1 epigenetic regulation.




    we

    Effects of Bariatric Surgery in Early- and Adult-Onset Obesity in the Prospective Controlled Swedish Obese Subjects Study

    OBJECTIVE

    Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for obesity, but it is unknown if outcomes differ between adults with early- versus adult-onset obesity. We investigated how obesity status at 20 years of age affects outcomes after bariatric surgery later in life.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    The Swedish Obese Subjects study is a prospective matched study performed at 25 surgical departments and 480 primary health care centers. Participants aged 37–60 years with BMI ≥34 kg/m2 (men) or ≥38 kg/m2 (women) were recruited between 1987 and 2001; 2,007 participants received bariatric surgery and 2,040 usual care. Self-reported body weight at 20 years of age was used to stratify patients into subgroups with normal BMI (<25 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m2), or obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). Body weight, energy intake, and type 2 diabetes status were examined over 10 years, and incidence of cardiovascular and microvascular disease was determined over up to 26 years using data from health registers.

    RESULTS

    There were small but statistically significant differences in reduction of body weight among the subgroups after bariatric surgery (interaction P = 0.032), with the largest reductions among those with obesity aged 20 years. Bariatric surgery increased type 2 diabetes remission (odds ratios 4.51, 4.90, and 5.58 in subgroups with normal BMI, overweight, or obesity at 20 years of age, respectively; interaction P = 0.951), reduced type 2 diabetes incidence (odds ratios 0.15, 0.13, and 0.15, respectively; interaction P = 0.972), and reduced microvascular complications independent of obesity status at 20 years of age (interaction P = 0.650). The association between bariatric surgery and cardiovascular disease was similar in the subgroups (interaction P = 0.674). Surgical complications were similar in the subgroups.

    CONCLUSIONS

    The treatment benefits of bariatric surgery in adults are similar regardless of obesity status at 20 years of age.




    we

    How we made our Free COVID-19 Alerting System and how you can build your own for any topic

    Ever since we launched our Free COVID-19 Alerting System, we’ve been continuously asked how we made it. In this blog…




    we

    Convert Almost Any Webpage Into RSS Feed With Inoreader’s Web Feeds

    So, you wanted to follow this nice website for new content, but it doesn’t have an RSS feed yet? Don’t…




    we

    Migration &amp; Coronavirus: A Complicated Nexus Between Migration Management and Public Health

    This webinar, organized by MPI and the Zolberg Institute on Migration and Mobility at The New School, discussed migration policy responses around the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and examined where migration management and enforcement tools may be useful and where they may be ill-suited to advancing public health goals. 




    we

    Immigrant Families and Child Welfare Systems: Emerging Needs and Promising Policies

    With the children of immigrants a growing share of all U.S. children, and federal immigration enforcement and other policies undergoing significant change, some state and local child welfare agencies are developing new ways to improve how they work with immigrant families. This report examines key cultural, linguistic, and legal challenges, and how agencies are adjusting staffing, training, placement, and other policies to tackle them.




    we

    Application of Adult-Learning Principles to Patient Instructions: A Usability Study for an Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Device

    Gayle Lorenzi
    Sep 1, 2010; 28:157-162
    Bridges to Excellence




    we

    Empowerment and Self-Management of Diabetes

    Martha M. Funnell
    Jul 1, 2004; 22:123-127
    Feature Articles




    we

    Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue: The Heroism of Whistleblowers

    Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue The Heroism of Whistleblowers Edited by Ari Kohen, Brian Riches, and Matt Langdon Whistleblowers speak up with “concerns or information about wrongdoing inside organizations and institutions.” As such, whistleblowing “can be one of the most important and difficult forms of heroism in modern society” (Brown, 2016 p. 1). … Continue reading Heroism Science: Call for Papers, Special Issue: The Heroism of Whistleblowers




    we

    The Language of Science and the Tower of Babel


    And God said: Behold one people with one language for them all ... and now nothing that they venture will be kept from them. ... [And] there God mixed up the language of all the land. (Genesis, 11:6-9)

    "Philosophy is written in this grand book the universe, which stands continually open to our gaze. But the book cannot be understood unless one first learns to comprehend the language and to read the alphabet in which it is composed. It is written in the language of mathematics." Galileo Galilei

    Language is power over the unknown. 

    Mathematics is the language of science, and computation is the modern voice in which this language is spoken. Scientists and engineers explore the book of nature with computer simulations of swirling galaxies and colliding atoms, crashing cars and wind-swept buildings. The wonders of nature and the powers of technological innovation are displayed on computer screens, "continually open to our gaze." The language of science empowers us to dispel confusion and uncertainty, but only with great effort do we change the babble of sounds and symbols into useful, meaningful and reliable communication. How we do that depends on the type of uncertainty against which the language struggles.

    Mathematical equations encode our understanding of nature, and Galileo exhorts us to learn this code. One challenge here is that a single equation represents an infinity of situations. For instance, the equation describing a flowing liquid captures water gushing from a pipe, blood coursing in our veins, and a droplet splashing from a puddle. Gazing at the equation is not at all like gazing at the droplet. Understanding grows by exposure to pictures and examples. Computations provide numerical examples of equations that can be realized as pictures. Computations can simulate nature, allowing us to explore at our leisure.

    Two questions face the user of computations: Are we calculating the correct equations? Are we calculating the equations correctly? The first question expresses the scientist's ignorance - or at least uncertainty - about how the world works. The second question reflects the programmer's ignorance or uncertainty about the faithfulness of the computer program to the equations. Both questions deal with the fidelity between two entities. However, the entities involved are very different and the uncertainties are very different as well.

    The scientist's uncertainty is reduced by the ingenuity of the experimenter. Equations make predictions that can be tested by experiment. For instance, Galileo predicted that small and large balls will fall at the same rate, as he is reported to have tested from the tower of Pisa. Equations are rejected or modified when their predictions don't match the experimenter's observation. The scientist's uncertainty and ignorance are whittled away by testing equations against observation of the real world. Experiments may be extraordinarily subtle or difficult or costly because nature's unknown is so endlessly rich in possibilities. Nonetheless, observation of nature remorselessly cuts false equations from the body of scientific doctrine. God speaks through nature, as it were, and "the Eternal of Israel does not deceive or console." (1 Samuel, 15:29). When this observational cutting and chopping is (temporarily) halted, the remaining equations are said to be "validated" (but they remain on the chopping block for further testing).

    The programmer's life is, in one sense, more difficult than the experimenter's. Imagine a huge computer program containing millions of lines of code, the accumulated fruit of thousands of hours of effort by many people. How do we verify that this computation faithfully reflects the equations that have ostensibly been programmed? Of course they've been checked again and again for typos or logical faults or syntactic errors. Very clever methods are available for code verification. Nonetheless, programmers are only human, and some infidelity may slip through. What remorseless knife does the programmer have with which to verify that the equations are correctly calculated? Testing computation against observation does not allow us to distinguish between errors in the equations, errors in the program, and compensatory errors in both.

    The experimenter compares an equation's prediction against an observation of nature. Like the experimenter, the programmer compares the computation against something. However, for the programmer, the sharp knife of nature is not available. In special cases the programmer can compare against a known answer. More frequently the programmer must compare against other computations which have already been verified (by some earlier comparison). The verification of a computation - as distinct from the validation of an equation - can only use other high-level human-made results. The programmer's comparisons can only be traced back to other comparisons. It is true that the experimenter's tests are intermediated by human artifacts like calipers or cyclotrons. Nonetheless, bedrock for the experimenter is the "reality out there". The experimenter's tests can be traced back to observations of elementary real events. The programmer does not have that recourse. One might say that God speaks to the experimenter through nature, but the programmer has no such Voice upon which to rely.

    The tower built of old would have reached the heavens because of the power of language. That tower was never completed because God turned talk into babble and dispersed the people across the land. Scholars have argued whether the story prescribes a moral norm, or simply describes the way things are, but the power of language has never been disputed.

    The tower was never completed, just as science, it seems, has a long way to go. Genius, said Edison, is 1 percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration. A good part of the sweat comes from getting the language right, whether mathematical equations or computer programs.

    Part of the challenge is finding order in nature's bubbling variety. Each equation captures a glimpse of that order, adding one block to the structure of science. Furthermore, equations must be validated, which is only a stop-gap. All blocks crumble eventually, and all equations are fallible and likely to be falsified.

    Another challenge in science and engineering is grasping the myriad implications that are distilled into an equation. An equation compresses and summarizes, while computer simulations go the other way, restoring detail and specificity. The fidelity of a simulation to the equation is usually verified by comparing against other simulations. This is like the dictionary paradox: using words to define words.

    It is by inventing and exploiting symbols that humans have constructed an orderly world out of the confusing tumult of experience. With symbols, like with blocks in the tower, the sky is the limit.




    we

    Can We Replay History?


    After the kids' party games and the birthday cake came the action-packed Steve McQueen movie. My friend's parents had rented a movie projector. They hooked up the reel and let it roll. But the high point came later when they ran the movie backwards. Bullets streamed back into guns, blows were retracted and fallen protagonists recoiled into action. The mechanism that pulls the celluloid film forward for normal showing, can pull the film in the reverse direction, rolling it back onto the feeder reel and showing the movie in reverse.

    If you chuck a round pebble off a cliff it will fall in a graceful parabolic arch, gradually increasing its speed until it hits the ground. The same pebble, if shot from the point of impact, at the terminating angle and speed, will gracefully and obligingly retrace its path. (I'm ignoring wind and air friction that make things a bit more complicated.)

    Deterministic mechanisms, like the movie reel mechanism or the law of gravity, are reversible.

    History is different. Peoples' behavior is influenced by what they know. You pack an umbrella on a trip to the UK. Google develops search algorithms not search parties because their knowledge base is information technology not mountain trekking. Knowledge is powerful because it enables rational behavior: matching actions to goals. Knowledge transforms futile fumbling into intelligent behavior.

    Knowledge underlies intelligent behavior, but knowledge is continually expanding. We discover new facts and relationships. We discover that things have changed. Therefore tomorrow's knowledge-based behavior will, to some extent, be unpredictable today because tomorrow's discoveries cannot be known today. Human behavior has an inherent element of indeterminism. Intelligent learning behavior cannot be completely predicted.

    Personal and collective history does not unfold like a pre-woven rug. Human history is fundamentally different from the trajectory of a pebble tossed from a cliff. History is the process of uncovering the unknown and responding to this new knowledge. The existence of the unknown creates the possibility of free will. The discovery of new knowledge introduces indeterminism and irreversibility into history, as explained by the philosophers G.L.S. Shackle and Karl Popper.

    Nonetheless history is not erratic because each increment of new knowledge adds to the store of what was learned before. Memory is not perfect, either of individuals or groups, but it is powerful. History happens in historical context. For instance, one cannot understand the recent revolutions and upheavals in the Arab world from the perspective of 18th century European revolutions; the historical backgrounds are too different, and the outcomes in the Middle East will be different as well. Innovation, even revolution, is spurred by new knowledge laid over the old. A female municipal official slapped a Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi. That slap crystalized Mr Bouazizi's knowledge of his helpless social impotence and lit the match with which he immolated himself and initiated conflagrations around the Mideast. New knowledge acts like thruster engines on the inertial body of memory. What is emerging in the Mideast is Middle Eastern, not European. What is emerging is the result of new knowledge: of the power of networking, of the mortality of dictators, of the limits of coercion, of the power of new knowledge itself and the possibilities embedded in tomorrow's unknowns.

    Mistakes are made, even with the best intentions and the best possible knowledge. Even if analysts knew and understood all the actions of all actors on the stage of history, they still cannot know what those people will learn tomorrow and how that new knowledge will alter their behavior. Mistakes are made because history does not unwind like a celluloid reel.

    That's not to say that analysts are never ignorant, negligent, stupid or malicious. It's to say that all actions are, in a sense, mistakes. Or, the biggest mistake of all is to think that we can know the full import of our actions. We cannot, because actions are tossed, like pebbles, into the dark pit of unknown possible futures. One cannot know all possible echoes, or whether some echo might be glass-shatteringly cataclysmic.

    Mistakes can sometimes be corrected, but never undone. History cannot be run backwards, and you never get a second chance. Conversely, every instant is a new opportunity because the future is always uncertain. Uncertainty is the freedom to err, and the opportunity to create and discover. 




    we

    We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty


    We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.

    What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.

    In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started. 




    we

    Why We Need Libraries, Or, Memory and Knowledge


    "Writing is thinking in slow motion. We see what at normal speeds escapes us, can rerun the reel at will to look for errors, erase, interpolate, and rethink. Most thoughts are a light rain, fall upon the ground, and dry up. Occasionally they become a stream that runs a short distance before it disappears. Writing stands an incomparably better chance of getting somewhere.

    "... What is written can be given endlessly and yet retained, read by thousands even while it is being rewritten, kept as it was and revised at the same time. Writing is magic." 
    Walter Kaufmann

    We are able to know things because they happen again and again. We know about the sun because it glares down on us day after day. Scientists learn the laws of nature, and build confidence in their knowledge, by testing their theories over and over and getting the same results each time. We would be unable to learn the patterns and ways of our world if nothing were repeatable.

    But without memory, we could learn nothing even if the world were tediously repetitive. Even though the sun rises daily in the east, we could not know this if we couldn't remember it.

    The world has stable patterns, and we are able to discover these patterns because we remember. Knowledge requires more than memory, but memory is an essential element.

    The invention of writing was a great boon to knowledge because writing is collective memory. For instance, the Peloponnesian wars are known to us through Thucydides' writings. People understand themselves and their societies in part through knowing their history. History, as distinct from pre-history, depends on the written word. For example, each year at the Passover holiday, Jewish families through the ages have read the story of the Israelite exodus from Egypt. We are enjoined to see ourselves as though we were there, fleeing Egypt and trudging through the desert. Memory, recorded for all time, creates individual and collective awareness, and motivates aspirations and actions.

    Without writing, much collective memory would be lost, just as books themselves are sometimes lost. We know, for instance, that Euclid wrote a book called Porisms, but the book is lost and we know next to nothing about its message. Memory, and knowledge, have been lost.

    Memory can be uncertain. We've all experienced that on the personal level. Collective memory can also be uncertain. We're sometimes uncertain of the meaning of rare ancient words, such as lilit in Isaiah (34:14) or gvina in Job (10:10). Written traditions, while containing an element of truth, may be of uncertain meaning or veracity. For instance, we know a good deal, both from the Bible and from archeological findings, about Hezekiah who ruled the kingdom of Judea in the late 8th century BCE. About David, three centuries earlier, we can be much less certain. Biblical stories are told in great detail but corroboration is hard to obtain.

    Memory can be deliberately corrupted. Records of history can be embellished or prettified, as when a king commissions the chronicling of his achievements. Ancient monuments glorifying imperial conquests are invaluable sources of knowledge of past ages, but they are unreliable and must be interpreted cautiously. Records of purported events that never occurred can be maliciously fabricated. For instance, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion is pure invention, though that book has been re-published voluminously throughout the world and continues to be taken seriously by many people. Memory is alive and very real, even if it is memory of things that never happened.

    Libraries are the physical medium of human collective memory, and an essential element in maintaining and enlarging our knowledge. There are many types of libraries. The family library may have a few hundred books, while the library of Congress has 1,349 km of bookshelves and holds about 147 million items. Libraries can hold paper books or digital electronic documents. Paper can perish in fire as happened to the Alexandrian library, while digital media can be erased, or become damaged and unreadable. Libraries, like memory itself, are fragile and need care.

    Why do we need libraries? Being human means, among other things, the capacity for knowledge, and the ability to appreciate and benefit from it. The written record is a public good, like the fresh air. I can read Confucius or Isaiah centuries after they lived, and my reading does not consume them. Our collective memory is part of each individual, and preserving that memory preserves a part of each of us. Without memory, we are without knowledge. Without knowledge, we are only another animal.





    we

    The Breakfast That Boosts Weight Loss By 65%

    The food lowers cravings for high-sugar and high-fat foods and suppresses appetite during the day.

    Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

    → Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:




    we

    The Popular Foods That Lower Your IQ

    Two-thirds of children report eating this food weekly.

    Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

    → Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:




    we

    Online Therapy: A Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Covid 19

    The coronavirus pandemic is affecting billions of people around the world today. Coronavirus, now called covid 19, is a type of virus that is usually found in animals and is rarely transmitted to humans. According to reports from the World Health Organization, covid 19 likely originated from a seafood and meat market in Wuhan, China, […]




    we

    Here’s how Washington State’s nudge for state park donations works via its web site

    A couple years ago, Washington State switched the default rule on state park fees that drivers pay (or don’t pay) when they renew their licenses. Reader Steve Loeb nicely captures what this switch looks like on the Washington State Department of Licensing site.




    we

    does resurge work : Resurge weight reduction supplement is a...



    does resurge work : Resurge weight reduction supplement is a distinct advantage program that would bolster your ascent to control. It will change you and make you more grounded than at any other time with improved wellbeing that can assist you with getting away from heftiness. This Resurge audit tells how the Supplement will help your lack of sleep and weight reduction cause. Improved digestion change will enable the body to acquire vitality.




    we

    The Top 10 Most-Read Questions and Answers on Sex and Psychology

    What do people want to know about sex? Here's are the ten most read question-and-answer features of all time on the blog. These questions (all submitted by readers of Sex and Psychology) span a wide range of topics. Many of them fall under the category of “What’s normal when it comes to sex?” However, others reflect curiosity about diverse sexual practices, as well as interest in better understanding what's safe when it comes to sex.



    • Sex Question Friday