If the Fed had a mantra to go along with its mandate, it might well be "two percent." We look into how that became the target inflation rate, why some economists are calling for a change and how the inflation rate becomes unanchored.

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Economists say that inflation is just too much money chasing too few goods.

But something else can make inflation stick around.

If you think of the 1970s, the last time the U.S. had really high sustained inflation, a big concern was rising wages. Prices for goods and services were high. Workers expected prices to be even higher next year, so they asked for pay raises to keep up. But then companies had to raise their prices more. And then workers asked for raises again. This the so-called wage-price spiral.

So when prices started getting high again in 2021, economists and the U.S. Federal Reserve again worried that wage increases would become a big problem. But, it seems like the wage-price spiral hasn't happened. In fact wages, on average, have not kept up with inflation.

There are now concerns about a totally different kind of spiral: a profit-price spiral. On today's show, why some economists are looking at inflation in a new light.

This episode was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and engineered by Katherine Silva, with help from Josh Newell. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Jess Jiang.

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When economists and policymakers talk about getting inflation under control, there's an assumption they often make: bringing inflation down will probably result in some degree of layoffs and job loss. But that is not the way things have played out since inflation spiked last year. Instead, so far, inflation has come down, and unemployment has stayed low.

So where does the idea of this tradeoff – between inflation and unemployment – come from?

That story starts in the 1940s, with a soft-spoken electrical engineer-turned-crocodile hunter-turned-economist named Bill Phillips. Phillips was consumed by the notion that there are underlying forces at work in the economy. He thought that if macroeconomists could only understand how those forces work, they could keep the economy stable.

On today's show, how the Phillips Curve was born, why it went mainstream, and why universal truths remain elusive in macroeconomics.

This episode was hosted by Willa Rubin and Nick Fountain, and produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Molly Messick, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. Sierra Juarez checked the facts.

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When someone says "the economy is doing well"—what does that even mean? Like, for workers, for employers, for the country as a whole? According to what calculation? How do you put a number on it?

The world of economics is filled with all sorts of "measuring sticks." GDP. Inflation. Unemployment. Consumer sentiment. Over time, all kinds of government agencies, universities and private companies have come up with different ways to measure facets of the economy. These measures factor into all kinds of huge decisions—things like government policy, business strategies, maybe even your personal career choices or investments.

On today's show, we're going to lift the curtain on two of these yardsticks. We are going to meet the people tasked with sticking a number on two huge measures of our economic well being: the official U.S. government inflation report and the monthly unemployment and jobs numbers. Come along and see how the measures get made.

This episode was hosted by Darian Woods, Stacey Vanek Smith, and Wailin Wong. It was produced by Julia Ritchey and Jess Kung with help from James Sneed. Engineering by Gilly Moon and James Willetts. It was fact-checked by Michael He and Corey Bridges, and edited by Kate Concannon and Viet Le. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.

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After very high inflation, the United States is finally feeling some relief in the form of "disinflation." But, why exactly has inflation slowed down?

Three Planet Money hosts try to answer that question while competing to be the winner of our very own reporting challenge: Econ Battle Zone!

It's economics journalism meets high-stakes reality TV competition! Will our contestants be able to impress our celebrity judges? How will they manage to incorporate their mystery ingredients? Who will take home the championship belt? Tune in for the inaugural episode of...Econ Battle Zone!

This episode was hosted by Keith Romer, Amanda Aronczyk, Erika Beras, and Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi. James Sneed produced this episode with help from Emma Peaslee. The show was edited by Molly Messick, engineered by Cena Loffredo, and fact checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

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The IRA provides incentives to homeowners looking to replace old equipment that burns fossil fuels with new high-efficiency systems that is powered by renewable energy, and HVAC contractors are needed to install it.

The Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) tax credits and rebates can unlock thousands for residential homeowners looking to upgrade to energy-efficient HVAC equipment.

According to the FDA website: Midwestern Pet Foods, Inc. of Evansville, Ind. is expanding its December 30, 2020 voluntary recall of certain dog and cat food products produced in its Chickasha Operations Facility to include all dog and cat pet food products made with corn products because those products may contain aflatoxin levels that exceed acceptable limits.

This innovative approach to wine packaging marks a first in the U.S. market, underscoring a commitment to recycled packaging solutions without compromising on the quality and flavor of wine that customers expect.

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

• holding at 3.3% y/y
• would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

• "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four years
• Three-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last month
• Five-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month

other details :

• Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months
• Consumers in October saw lowest likelihood of a rising US unemployment rate over the next year since February 2022
• Consumers saw lower chance of losing current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if current job were lost
• Unemployment expectations decline to 34.5%, lowest since February 2022
• Probability of finding a job increase the highest level since October 2023

This is good news is inflation expectations help to keep a lid on actual inflation. Nevertheless yields remain near highs for the day.

• 2 year 4.321%, +6.7 basis points
• 5-year 4.281%, +8.9 basis points
• 10 year 4.390%, 8.2 basis points

US stocks are lower:

• Dow -0.38%
• S&P -0.33%
• NASDAQ -0.14%

In brief from WPAC's note:

• September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024
• Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024
• Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) ... The RBA is currently forecasting annual wages growth to print 3.4%yr for end 2024 and hold at that rate through to June 2025.

***

The WPI should easily come in under that RBA forecast by end 2024. While some will point to slowing wages as a reason to cut rates the RBA is in no hurry, still war of elevated demand and inflation likely to pop back above the top of the 2 - 3% target band once government cost of living subsidies roll off.

Broader markets are still largely clinging on to the post-election sentiment this week. However, today will add something different to the mix as we will have the US CPI report in focus. While inflation numbers haven't been too important in recent months, it is one that could still impact trading sentiment. That especially if the disinflation process meets a couple of bumps along the way.

And looking at the expectations for today's report, that might shape up to be the case at least for the October estimates.

Core monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.30% while headline monthly inflation is expected to nudge up by ~0.21%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to hold at 3.3% - similar to September. As for headline annual inflation, it is expected to come in a little higher this time at 2.6%.

According to Goldman Sachs, we should be seeing less disinflationary pressures from previously softer components such as airfares and used cars prices. Their estimates show the former increasing by 1.0% this month with the latter up 2.5%. So, that's one part of the argument.

At the balance, the report today should not provide a major reaction if within estimates. I reckon the balance of risks at this point is favouring an outsized reaction on an upside surprise, as compared to a downside miss.

Fed funds futures are showing ~63% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for December and that has been toned down since last week. If there is any upside surprise, the scope for a materially bigger shift in odds there is much wider as compared to a downside miss. So, that's the key consideration now.

Here's Goldman Sachs' playbook in terms of the S&P 500 reaction:

• There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sector
• Trump's tariffs may cause German economy to contract
• If tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output

And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit with a few bumps along the way. All else being equal, the argument for further rate cuts should hold heading into 2025.

• Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished
• Services inflation is pretty sticky
• Energy prices are more likely to go up than down
• Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers

Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments here are not as striking as they might seem to be.

https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-inflation-reduction-act-a-looming-political-earthquake By Mark P. Mills If it weren’t for the election season swamping news coverage, odds are more people would be talking about the revelation that, to quote a Bloomberg headline, “The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion.” In fact, that may understate the reality: the World Bank’s “accounting gap” could be as […]

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: "Congratulations to President Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance. Finally, US leadership has returned to fight the international climate agenda. The U.S. will finally have a president back in the Oval Office who will be pro-science, pro-environment, and fight the demented net zero climate agenda, the Green New Deal, and the UN climate treaty process.

President Trump will also be able to face off against the ridiculous, unsustainable, and unscientific claims that emanate from our most esteemed institutions. America will once again be a beacon of scientific realism regarding climate change and energy policy. Bravo!"  

[This Day] On the back of galloping inflation, regulating expenses, and devaluation of the local currency, a total of 23 leading companies on the Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX), reported a whooping N5.1 trillion operating expenses in the half year (H1) ended June 2024.

While the Biden administration is asking for $773 billion for 2023, that number may not go as far as hoped. DoD says it finished up its planning for 2023 before inflation rates rose and before Russia invaded Ukraine causing oil prices to spike.

The post Republicans want to know the cost of inflation on 2023 Defense budget first appeared on Federal News Network.

Millions of retirees on Social Security will get a 5.9% boost in benefits for 2022

The post Social Security checks getting big boost as inflation rises first appeared on Federal News Network.

If you are planning on retiring soon (this year or next) have you thought of the lifetime impact of long-term inflation on your diet-COLA annuity?

The post Inflation and your retirement date first appeared on Federal News Network.

(The Center Square) – The Phoenix metropolitan area has the highest annual inflation rate in the nation.

(The Center Square) – Among 22 metro areas measured nationwide, Detroit has the second-highest rise in inflation, WalletHub reported.

Speaking about his country band's scrapped 'Farewell Life Is a Highway Tour' due to COVID-19, Jay DeMarcus admits it's been so hard on them since they did not get to say goodbye with their fans.

“Udaan’s financial performance for FY23-24 reflects its commitment to building a robust, profitable and resilient business. With revenue reaching INR 5,700 crores for FY23-24, we have made significant strides toward profitability, reducing EBITDA burn by 40% year-on-year to ~INR 900 crores,” said Kiran Thadimarri, SVP Finance, Udaan in a LinkedIn post.

India's consumer price inflation likely surged to a 14-month high in October, driven by soaring vegetable and edible oil prices. Economists predict inflation hit 5.81%, just below the central bank's 6% tolerance limit. A weak rupee and rising global commodity prices add to inflationary pressures, potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts.

Despite the persistent inflation and sluggish demand, several leading FMCG and retail brands are doubling down on their premiumization strategies, reshaping their approach to appeal to discerning customers.

India's retail inflation rose to 6.21 percent in October. This is a significant increase from September's 5.49 percent. Food prices are the main reason for this surge. This is the first time since August that inflation has gone beyond the Reserve Bank of India's 6 percent limit. The rise in onion prices is a major concern.

Rocky Flats Stewardship Council met regularly to monitor testing data at former nuke weapons site.

Westminster is the second community surrounding the 6,200-acre federal property to withdraw from an intergovernmental agreement supporting construction of a tunnel and bridge into Rocky Flats National Wildlife Refuge.

The Ministry of Economy and Labour reported a 1.9% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index [CPI] for July 2024. A Government spokesperson said, “Today, the Ministry of Economy and Labour released the Department of Statistics’ July 2024 Consumer Price Index. “In summary, consumers paid 1.9 per cent more in July 2024 than they did […]

Eastern County Cup holders Bailey’s Bay Cricket Club and challengers Flatt’s Victoria have selected their team Saturday’s round of the 2024 series at Lord’s in St. David’s. Bailey’s Bay will be led once again by Terryn Fray, with Kyle Hodsoll the vice-captain. The Bailey’s Bay team features nine players with Cup Match classic experience, and […]

Bailey’s Bay have won the Eastern Counties Cup final after defeating Flatts Victoria by 36 runs at Lord’s, St David’s, today [August 31]. Winning the toss and electing to bat, Bay posted 144 off 41.4 overs, with captain Terryn Fray and Derrick Brangman both top scoring with 29. Seam bowler Kamau Leverock was the pick […]

Devonshire Recreation Club, St. David’s Cricket Club, Flatt’s Victoria and Somerset Cricket Club recorded victories in the Bermuda Cricket Board [BCB] Twenty20 action. Devonshire Recreation Club Won by 6 Wickets: Willow Cuts 114 Devonshire Recreation Club 120/4 At the Wellington Oval, Devonshire Recreation Club defeated Willow Cuts by 6 wickets. Willow Cuts were bowled out for 114, Willow Cuts […]

Somerset Cricket Club, Western Stars, Willow Cuts CC, Southampton Rangers and Flatt’s Victoria all recorded victories in the Athene T20 League action. Athene T20 League – Premier Division Somerset Cricket Club Win by 8 Wickets: Cleveland County 147/7 Somerset Cricket Club 150/2 At the White Hill Field, the Somerset Cricket Club defeated Cleveland County by 8 […]

Kayla Bardgett and her Savannah College of Art and Design [SCAD] equestrian teammates hosted an Intercollegiate Horse Show Association [IHSA] regular season event and were named the champions with a perfect score. Bardgett won the individual junior intermediate flat class. SCAD were named the champions with a perfect 49 points, and the University of Central […]

A truck has apparently become stuck on top of the speed bump in Flatts today [Nov 30], with the vehicle seen sitting stationary on the speed bump since late this morning. The driver was seen out of the vehicle helping to direct traffic around the truck, which at our last check today was still ‘stuck’ […]

1. Wages growth slows faster than expected but still exceeds inflation  ABC News
2. Real wages are growing at highest rate since 2020. But it’s unlikely to last  Sydney Morning Herald
3. SBS On the Money: Wages growth slows but real wages turn positive  SBS News

European stock indexes traded lower in Wednesday's premarket session, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report firmly on investors' radar ahead of its release at 2:30 pm CET. Analysts anticipate ...

European stock indexes traded lower in Tuesday's premarket session, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report firmly on investors' radar ahead of its release at 2:30 pm CET. Analysts anticipate in...

European stocks are expected to open positive territory Wednesday, with global markets focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 36 points higher at 8,056, Germany's DAX up 38 points at 19,081, France's CAC up 11 points at 7,356 and Italy's FTSE MIB up…

Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated on Wednesday that more interest rate cuts could be on the horizon, noting ...

Emergency funding deal would give struggling water company £3bn lifeline Thames Water has been teetering on the brink of collapse since being described as “uninvestible” in March when shareholders refused to pour in more cash. The government has been on standby for nationalisation through a…

Major European stock markets opened mostly lower on Wednesday as investors' main focus shifted to October's inflation figures from the United States, pivotal statistics in shaping the Federal Reserve'...

The rotation curves of disc galaxies are flat and dark matter is speculated as explanation. Alternatively, the gravity of material disk could explain the flat curves. Using the gravitational force that a disk exerts on a body in the disk, we have computed the the rotation curves of disc galaxies and the curve of their...

The post Almost 7 Million Dollars for a Flat in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia appeared first on English Russia.

The landmark 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has committed nearly $400 billion to mitigating climate change. Nine research teams across the U.S, including a Princeton team led by Jesse Jenkins, have now modeled the law's effect on U.S. carbon emissions.

By Ireland Owens Toyota’s North American Chief Operating Officer (COO) Jack Hollis criticized U.S. policies promoting electric vehicle adoption (EV) on Friday, according to Bloomberg. The Toyota COO said that electric vehicle policies are “de facto mandates” that are not in sync with consumer demand, according to Bloomberg. Hollis also said that EV mandates such as […]

The post Major Automaker Exec Flatly Says Liberals’ EV ‘Mandates’ Are ‘Impossible’ To Meet appeared first on Liberty Unyielding.