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JOHANNESBURG — South Africa's four main political parties began the final weekend of campaigning Saturday before a possibly pivotal election that could bring the country's most important change in three decades. Supporters of the long-governing African National Congress, which has been in the government ever since the end of white minority rule in 1994, gathered at a soccer stadium in Johannesburg to hear party leader and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa speak. The ANC is under unprecedented pressure to keep hold of its parliamentary majority in Africa's most advanced country. Having seen its popularity steadily decline over the last two decades, Wednesday's vote could be a landmark moment when the party once led by Nelson Mandela drops below 50% of the vote for the first time. Several polls have the ANC's support at less than 50%, raising the possibility that it will have to form a national coalition. That would also be a first for South Africa's young democracy, which was only established 30 years ago with the first all-race vote that officially ended the apartheid system of racial segregation. As thousands of supporters in the ANC's black, green and gold colors attended its last major rally before the election, Ramaphosa recognized some of the grievances that have contributed to his party losing support, which include high levels of poverty and unemployment that mainly affect the country's Black majority. “We have a plan to get more South Africans to work," Ramaphosa said. “Throughout this campaign, in the homes of our people, in the workplaces, in the streets of our townships and villages, so many of our people told us of their struggles to find work and provide for their families.” The main opposition Democratic Alliance party had a rally in Cape Town, South Africa's second-biggest city and its stronghold. Party leader John Steenhuisen made a speech while supporters in the DA's blue colors held up blue umbrellas. “Democrats, friends, are you ready for change?” Steenhuisen said. The crowd shouted back “Yes!” "Are you ready to rescue South Africa?" Steenhuisen added. While the ANC's support has shrunk in three successive national elections and appears set to continue dropping, no party has emerged to overtake it — or even challenge it — and it is still widely expected to be the largest party by some way in this election. But losing its majority would be the clearest rejection yet of the famous party that led the anti-apartheid movement and is credited with leading South Africans to freedom. Some ANC supporters at the rally in Johannesburg also expressed their frustration with progress, as South Africa battles poverty, desperately high unemployment, some of the worst levels of inequality in the world, and other problems with corruption, violent crime and the failure of basic government services in some places. “We want to see job opportunities coming and basically general change in every aspect,” ANC supporter Ntombizonke Biyela said. “Since 1994 we have been waiting for ANC, it has been long. We have been voting and voting but we see very little progress as the people, only a special few seem to benefit.” While conceding to some failures, the ANC has maintained that South Africa is a better place than it was during apartheid, when a set of race-based laws oppressed the country's Black majority in favor of a small white minority. The ANC was also widely credited with success in expanding social support and housing and other services for millions of poor South Africans in the decade after apartheid, even if critics say it has lost its way recently. "There are many problems in South Africa, but nobody can deny the changes that have happened since 1994, and that was because of the ANC,” said 42-year-old Eric Phoolo, another supporter of the ruling party. “These other parties don’t have a track record of bringing change to the country." As some voters have turned away from the ANC, it has led to a slow fracturing of South African politics. They have changed allegiances to an array of different opposition parties, some of them new. South Africa has dozens of parties registered to contest next week's election. South Africans vote for parties and not directly for their president in national elections. 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As climate change threatens the cryosphere — the frozen parts of the Earth — at an alarming rate putting almost a quarter of humanity at risk, Pakistan has advocated for coordinated regional efforts and international support to save the eco-system and build climate resilience, particularly across the Hindu Kush and Himalaya region.

The study ‘The State of the Cryosphere 2024’, released on Tuesday on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku, urged urgent action to control emissions to save glaciers, which are melting at a rapid pace due to global warming.

“Under a high emissions scenario…Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), may experience up to 80% of ice loss. With very low emissions however, up to 40% of glacier ice in the HKH region could be preserved,” it said, adding that projections in a few glacier regions even show slow re-growth beginning between 2100 and 2300, but only with very low emissions and essentially carbon neutrality by 2050.

Against this backdrop, the environment ministers from the HKH met on Tuesday at the Baku Olympics Stadium to come together to save the “third pole” and to keep global temperatures below 1.5 Celsius.

This gathering aimed to discuss the rapidly increasing climate risks and vulnerabilities in the region and beyond, while identifying areas for urgent collective actions, inevitable to addressing the pressing challenges and fulfilling the hopes of the quarter of humanity impacted by these changes, said a statement.

It stated that over the past decade, the rate of glacier melting in the HKH has accelerated by 65 per cent compared to the previous decade (2000-2010) and the trend is projected to continue.

“Over the last decade, the rate of glacier melting in the HKH has accelerated by 65% compared to the previous decade (2000- 2010), and the trend is projected to continue.”

Speaking at the event, Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay said this was an opportune time for the region to unite to push for a new collective quantified role that would directly address the need of the countries which were most vulnerable to climate change.

Pakistan Prime Minister Adviser on Climate Change Romina Khurshid Alam said no country across the HKH region could tackle the climate crisis in isolation and besides regional unity, international response was essential.

She said Pakistan stood for regional partnership aiming to save the ecosystem and species, and build climate resilience. She argued for easy access to climate finance to ensure these countries could erect safeguards to protect themselves from climate change.

She said Pakistan was experiencing first-hand the impacts of climate change, increasing the risk of natural disasters in the form of GLOFs and threatening water security and agriculture as well as biodiversity.

Other speakers included delegates from China, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The event was organised by the Kingdom of Bhutan and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.

Bleak state of Cryosphere

According to the State of Cryosphere 2024 report, if the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are met, global temperatures will likely reach 2.3°C by 2100, leading to irreversible ice loss, significant sea-level rise, and severe impacts on coastal regions, mountain communities, and polar ecosystems.

In case of a high emissions scenario, the temperature may rise to 3-3.5°C, which will cause extreme damage, including rapid ice sheet loss, the disappearance of glaciers, and widespread permafrost thaw.

However, the 1.5°C temperature in line with the Paris Agreement can help stabilise the cryosphere and preserve part of glaciers but that cannot happen unless there is a drastic cut in emissions.

“This requires urgent action, however, with emergency-scale tightening of mitigation commitments and fossil fuel emissions declining 40% by 2030,” the report added.

In case there is no action to stop the melting of glaciers, “severe and potentially permanent changes to the water cycle, due to loss of snowpack and ice run-off during the warm summer growing season, will impact food, energy and water security.”

Produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.

Header image: View of the landscape from Langtang, Nepal can be seen in this undated handout image. — Tika Gurung via Reuters

Published in Dawn, November 13th, 2024

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