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UK Tech Weekly Podcast Episode One: The Internet of Looms (IoL)

In the inaugural episode of the UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan discusses Apple's disastrous Error 53 with David Price, acting editor of Macworld UK. Techworld.com editor Charlotte Jee discusses the London mayoral candidates views on the UK tech industry, including Zach Goldsmith's anti-Uber statement, and online editor Scott Carey jumps in with some inane ideas around fibre broadband. Finally the team talk about YouTube licensing rights, despite knowing absolutely nothing about the subject.  


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Episode 17 - The Internet of Not Terrible Windows Phones (IoNTWP) - VR games & phones at gigs

This week host Matt Egan is joined by PC Advisor staff writer Chris Minasians to chat about the AMD Radeon RX 480 graphics card and what this could mean for the future of virtual reality games. Fellow staff writer at PC Advisor Henry Burrell jumps in to talk about the "not terrible" Windows 10 phone as he starts using the Microsoft Lumia 950 and can't see what everyone's beef with it is (13:00). Finally Ashleigh Allsopp, engagement editor at Macworld UK chats about using your technology at concerts (24:30).  


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Episode 26 - The Internet of Small Hands Big Phones (IoSHBP) Galaxy Note7, GDS & Instagram stories

Matt Egan is back in the hosting chair to chat with producer Chris about the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and how we feel about phablets. Techworld.com editor Charlotte Jee comes in to explain what is going on at the GDS (government digital service) and why we should care (13:00). Then online editor at Techworld.com Scott Carey chats Instagram stories, why it is a blatant rip off of Snapchat stories and how the social media giant can get away with being so brazen (22:00).  


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Episode 30 - The Internet of Unlimited Play-Doh (IoUPD): Amazon Dash, Apple tax and headphone sexism

This week Ashleigh Allsopp is simultaneously fascinated and worried by the UK launch of Amazon's Dash buttons, and discusses the many wonderful and not-so-wonderful things they enable you to buy on a drunken whim. Then David Price takes his turn to shine a spotlight on Apple's mysterious tax affairs (12:20) and tries to explain why the Irish government doesn't want to be given 13 billion euros. Finally a surprisingly riled-up Neil Bennett explains why women wearing headphones are not fair game for dimwitted pick-up artists (25:00), and ponders the social conventions surrounding the place of technology in each of our lives.  


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Episode 33 - The Internet of Phones on Fire (IoPoF)

In episode 33 host David Price is joined by cool Christopher Minasians to shoot the breeze on the Galaxy Note 7 recall, remembering other devices that were literally on fire. Jumpin' Jim Martin (14 minutes) brings his sinister stylings to bear on the burgeoning GoPro market. And honey-voiced Henry Burrell (28 minutes) says hi to Google Allo. Listen very carefully, he will say this only once.  


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Episode 37 – The Internet of One Slide Jobbies (IoOSJ)

Matt Egan, Editorial Director, returns to lull us all into a tech talk dreamland of Peppa Pixels and magic Apple dragons. Chris Martin, Consumer Tech Editor at PC Advisor gives you the skinny on Google’s Pixel post-launch, and why it’s a shame it doesn’t resound as loudly as the affordable Nexus (got to love the Nexus 4, obvs). Then Acting Editor of Macworld UK David Price weeps into his cornflakes at the supposed demise of the humble USB port as Apple takes courage to new heights for the upcoming MacBook Pro (18 mins). Staff Writer at PC Advisor Christopher Minasians then lays down the law, rejoicing at the cutthroat prices of Nvidia’s new GTX 1050. Cheap as chips! In a good way. Tuck in (27 mins).  


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Episode 46 - The Internet of Christmas (IoC) Design trends, gift ideas & Rogue One

This week David Price is in the presenter chair for the jolliest tech podcast of the year. David is joined by Miriam Harris, staff writer at Digital Arts, to talk about the design trends set to shape 2017. Then online editor at Techworld Scott Carey runs through the hottest tech gifts this Christmas, including games consoles, VR, Amazon gadgets and Star Wars merch (14:30). Finally, staff writer at PC Advisor Dom Preston makes his UKTW debut to chat about the latest Star Wars movie, Rogue One, which includes spoilers (29:00). This is the last UK Tech Weekly podcast of the year. Thank you for listening and we will be back in 2017 to chat about the hottest tech topics all over again.  


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Episode 52 - The Internet of Nostalgia (IoN) Nokia 3310, drone taxis and Apple on the telly

Matt Egan takes us where no other pod has dared gone before (September 2000) and asks Digital Arts Editor Neil Bennett if anyone cares that Nokia is rereleasing the famous 3310. Is it cool to rock one now? Then Techworld Audience Development Editor Christina Mercer lets us know that the future is already here with self driving drone taxis. Would you hitch a lift round Dubai on a massive quadcopter? Finally Deputy Editor at Macworld David Price ruminates on Apple's forecast foray into the world of snackable media content - will it challenge Netflix or try to buy it?  


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Episode 53 - The Internet of UberEATS Itself (IoUEI) Uber's mess, Apple's orchards and MWC's phones

Allow Matt Egan (and Shed7) to lull you into this week's pod as we tackle the big tech issues of the week. Staff Writer at Digital Arts Miriam Harris explains the latest HR and PR mess over at Uber. How long will consumers use a service when the company are clearly not treating its staff well? Then (16:30) Deputy Editor of Macworld UK David Price gets excited about Apple Park, the so-called 'spaceship campus' that has been under construction for years. May contain orchards. Finally (26:48) Senior Staff Writer at Tech Advisor Henry Burrell previews Mobile World Congress which gets underway on 26th February. Are any of the major handset launches worth your attention?  


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Episode 57 - The Internet of Apple press releases (IoAPR) iPads, red iPhones, black OnePlus phones and Android O

Gather round as three men spend 30 minutes talking about tech. Wait, what do you mean 'no thanks'?! Matt Egan shares the mic with David Price and Henry Burrell to thrash out why Apple deemed a press release adequate to announce the successor to 2014's iPad Air 2. There's also a slick new red iPhone, and a black OnePlus 3T. What's with the limited editions, eh? Or are they even limited? The gang also chat about the developer preview of Android O, out now while Android N is barely months old. Is it too early to say if it'll kick ass, and why do Google and Apple need such long public lead time with new OS builds?  


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Episode 58 - The Internet of another bloody phone (IoABP)

David Price leads the line this week to see how Samsung's Galaxy S8 came out fighting in London and New York this week. It's blown up! But not like that. Had to get that joke (poorly) out of the way. Chris Martin tells all. Then (18 mins) Cam Mitchell takes aim at Home Secretary Amber Rudd's ill advised comments on encryption and wanting government backdoor access to WhatsApp. Does her basic misunderstanding of privacy rights and how tech works extend to the wider population? And then Dom Preston (31 mins) tells us why Hollywood gone and done another flop, and why Ghost in the Shell is a red (or Scarlett!!!!!) mark against remakes.  


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Episode 67 - The Internet of Netflix and chill (IoNaC) 100m subs, phone news and Google Glass returns

A classic edition of the pod as we hark back to the hallowed three topic format. Henry Burrell hosts David Price, Scott Carey and Chris Martin to ask just how Netflix got so popular. Will it sustain it though? Windows Phone is also pretty much actually dead but the funeral march is long. Other phone stuff includes the hallowed iPhone 8, the demise of Vertu and Nokia not really being Nokia. David then tells us why Google Glass is back, what it means for the enterprise, and why didn't they realise the first time round that it wasn't a consumer play?  


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Episode 69 - The Internet of internal memos (IoIM) Google sexism row and iPhone 8 leaks

Join Miriam Harris, David Price and Henry Burrell as they dissect the weird internal memo row at Google. Was a male engineer genuinely trying to help Google and make a point about the company being too Left, or is he just an arsehole? Then we describe the iPhone 8 dummy we received this week (take a look at it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRNIwh61j_E ) and the revelations that came from the Homepod firmware leak. We also debate the usefulness of an LTE Apple Watch and try to make puns work. Magic.  


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Episode 70 - The Internet of tricky surnames (IoTS) Uber's new CEO and new phone chat

Scott Carey necessarily tries to get his pronunciation game on fleek to deliver the latest Uber news - there's a new CEO in town, and it isn't a woman. Should it have been? He tells Henry Burrell what's next for the company. Then roles are reversed as Henry updates Scott on the Galaxy Note 8, LG V30 and September 12's very own iPhone 8 - will it be called that? Will anyone spend £1,000 on it?  


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Episode 71: The Internet of iPhone X (IoiX) Plus Apple Watch 3 and Apple TV announcements

This week it is all about Apple as the company announces its eagerly awaited iPhone X and iPhone 8/8 Plus smartphones, a new Apple watch (yawn) and Apple TV news. Macworld UK editor Karen Haslam is our host this week, as she chats to a distinctly unconvinced Dominic Preston about the latest iPhone, followed by David Price on the Apple Watch Series 3, which he likes but not as much as its predecessor. Then everyone piles in together to discuss the quite-good iPhone 8, the quite-late Apple TV 4K, and all the rest of the evening's festivities.  


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Episode 75 - The Internet of Driverless Pods (IoDP) Hands on with the iPhone X, FairPhone and Driverless Car design

After a lengthy hiatus we are back to FINALLY talk about the iPhone X. Computerworld UK editor Scott Carey is in the hosting chair to chat with Chris Martin, reviews editor at Tech Advisor and Macworld UK, now that we have got our hands on one. Chris talks us through what he likes and dislikes so far about the pricey smartphone.


Then Miriam Harris, staff writer at Digital Arts jumps in to discuss the design principles behind driverless cars and what we can expect in the future (17:00).


Finally, pod debutante Caroline Vanier, senior staff writer at Tech Advisor France talks about the FairPhone and if it is a new model for the smart phone industry (28:00).

 

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Episode 79 - The Internet of New Year (IoNY) Meltdown & Spectre, iPhone batteries, iMac Pro and the VFX Bafta noms

2018 lands with a distinct thud as Charlotte Jee tackles Meltdown and Spectre, David Price wrestles with Apple's batteries and its new iMac Pro, before Miriam Harris works through the Bafta nominations for visual effects. Henry Burrell leads us down the rabbit hole.

 

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Episode 85 - The Internet of Data (IoD) Cambridge Analytica, Sea of Thieves and Ready Player One

We let one huge, scary story dominate proceedings before allowing two lighter-weight topics return the pod to its family friendly roots.


The Cambridge Analytica and Facebook scandal is decoded and discussed, with one podder especially susceptible to influence thanks to their insane third party app access numbers.


The gang then tackles Sea of Thieves, a return to form for Rare on Xbox, before Dom (with no spoilers) says just how bad Ready Player One is.

 

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Episode 98 - The Internet of Banning Idiots (IoBI) Infowars, new phone hype and the Millennium Dome

This week on the UK Tech Weekly Podcast our host Scott Carey talks to Macworld editor David Price about the ever-controversial Alex Jones and why the big tech companies are finally stepping up their efforts to ban him from their platforms. Editors note: we recorded this on Thursday before Twitter finally started to take some measures against Jones, without outright banning him.


Next our resident phone nerd and consumer tech editor at Tech Advisor Henry Burrell talks about the upcoming Samsung Galaxy Note 9, the latest iPhone X rumours and how Apple and Google are trying to make you use your phone less.


Lastly Techworld editor Charlotte Jee takes us on a trip down memory lane to talk about the utopian vision of the Millennium Experience, how it reflected the values of a New Labour government and its legacy.

 

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Episode 102 - The Internet of Tennis Max (IoTM) Apple event special, new iPhones and Apple Watch

A quick-fire reaction Apple special, recorded the morning after new iPhones and an Apple Watch were announced at an event in California.


Henry Burrell joins David Price, Ashleigh Macro and Scott Carey to discuss which products we'll be buying, avoiding and coveting over the Christmas period.


Is the new iPhone named terribly? Is it an upgrade at all? What wasn't announced? And does Scott give the new Apple Watch any praise at all? It's all here.

 

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Episode 105 - The Internet of Good & Bad (IoG&B) Google Rubin scandal and iPhone XR hands-on

It's episode 105, and David Price takes on hosting duties as the team dissect the best and absolute worst of the week's tech developments.


Scott Carey talks us through the troubling and wide-ranging allegations of sexual misconduct at Google, and discusses how this relates to the tech industry's culture of protected privilege, and to the #metoo movement.


Then Henry Burrell, fresh from a briefing at Apple HQ, reports his distinctly positive first impressions of the iPhone XR, which he would gladly recommend to tech newbie grandmas, and also to Scott.

 

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Belarusians Left Facing COVID-19 Alone

16 April 2020

Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Anaïs Marin

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The way the epidemic is being mismanaged creates a risk of political destabilisation and leaves the country exposed to external influence.

2020-04-16-Belarus-COVID-Football

Playing accordion in front of dummy football fans in Brest, Belarus as the country's championship continues despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.

Since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, few countries have chosen to ignore social distancing recommendations. But, even among those states which have, the Belarusian official response to its epidemic remains unique.

President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s statements that vodka, sauna and tractors are protecting Belarusians from coronavirus attracted amused attention in international media. Lukashenka also described other societies’ response to COVID-19 as ‘a massive psychosis’.

Although Lukashenka is notorious for his awkward style of public communication, the fact that Belarus is refusing to impose comprehensive confinement measures is of concern. Belarusians continue to work, play football and socialise.

Lukashenka, himself playing ice hockey in front of state cameras, claims it is the best way to stay healthy. Belarusian authorities clearly appear to be in denial – and this could have dire humanitarian consequences.

From denial to half measures

Belarus actually has one of the largest numbers of hospital beds in the world per 1,000 of the population. But in the absence of quarantine measures its health system, already crippled by corruption and embezzlement, is likely to be overwhelmed.

Patients being treated for pneumonia in hospitals have suggested medical staff are uninformed and inadequately equipped. It is claimed doctors are not reporting COVID-19 as the suspected cause of death, either through a lack of testing or for fear of reprisals.

Observers believe the real mortality rate is already well above official figures (40 deaths as of 16 April). Based on an Imperial College London model, between 15,000 and 32,000 people could die under the current mild confinement regime – and such a high death toll would hugely impact the country’s political stability. Citing personal data protection, the Ministry of Health has imposed a total news blackout; the only cluster officially acknowledged so far is the city of Vitsebsk.

Although specific Belarusian cities and some individuals started changing their approach – by extending school vacations or cancelling weddings – such measures remain half-hearted.

Clearly a major reason for such an apparently irresponsible reaction is that Belarus cannot afford a massive lockdown that would freeze its already underdeveloped economy and drive it deeper into recession. Unlike many other nations, Belarus lacks budgetary resources for a sizable stimulus package. But a delayed response might backfire on the economy.

Economic recession has been forecast to amount to at least 10% of GDP. For Lukashenka, who openly challenged conventional wisdom regarding the need for quarantine and isolation, such an economic downturn would harm his confidence rating in the eyes of Belarusian voters, mindful of the state’s mismanagement of the crisis. And it could create doubt within the ruling elite itself, with Lukashenka seeking re-election for a sixth mandate in late August.

Against this backdrop, a radicalization of the opposition-minded part of society is also to be expected, with greater reliance on social networks in the face of official secrecy and disinformation. The expected response of the regime is then likely to be pre-emptive repression. Evidence is emerging that law enforcement agencies have already stepped up judicial and paralegal harassment of dissenters, notably independent journalists and bloggers.

Russia’s initial reluctance to address the coronavirus crisis may also have influenced Belarus. Lukashenka and his administration often react to public health challenges by the Soviet rulebook, reminiscent of the Soviet authorities’ mismanagement of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

Russia has unilaterally closed its borders with Belarus and, as bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, this casts further doubt on the viability of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Pro-Russian media forecast Moscow will be unwilling to alleviate the expected socio-economic crisis, as it continues to reject Minsk’s demands regarding subsidised oil deliveries. Yet the Kremlin might use the crisis as an opportunity to resume its integrationist pressure on Belarus.

China, with which Belarus engaged in a seemingly privileged strategic partnership in the 2010s, was actually the first country to dispatch humanitarian aid to beef up Belarusian capacity to fight the virus.

But Minsk should not expect Beijing to rescue its economy and, unless it commits to more internal reforms, Belarus is not likely to receive much from the EU either. The regime has already applied to the IMF for emergency financial support, but conditions are attached and, even if successful, the funds would amount to no more than $900m.

The government’s decision to take only half measures so far is rooted in the hope COVID-19 is not as bad as foreign experts fear. But, unless the leadership acknowledges the public health crisis and mitigates its economic impact, COVID-19 will accelerate Belarus’s slide back into international self-isolation. If combined with a humanitarian crisis, this will put the Belarusian regime under considerable stress.

This crisis does risk a new ‘Chernobyl moment’ for the authorities, but the population could react more vocally this time. As volunteers self-organise to fight the epidemic, it might become more difficult for the authorities to say that it is efficient in running the country. But the bottom line is Belarus desperately needs money. Whoever steps up to support Belarus financially will also be able to heavily influence its politics.




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Pakistan: Anyone for a Deal?

1 January 2008 , Number 2

Voters will be heading for the polls in Pakistan on January 8. But however the ballots are cast, the people will not necessarily decide who will form the next government. Power is at stake, and all the players are calculating how best to retain or acquire it.

Dr Gareth Price

Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme




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Renewable Energy: Generating Money

1 November 2007 , Number 7

City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December.

Kirsty Hamilton

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

GettyImages-977104176.jpg

Solar panels lined up




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POSTPONED: Transitional Justice in Ukraine: What Might it Look Like?

Invitation Only Research Event

17 March 2020 - 9:30am to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Kirsty Brimelow QC, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers
Miles Jackson, Associate Professor of Law, University of Oxford
Anton Korynevych, Representative of the President of Ukraine for Crimea
Oleksandra Matviychuk, Head of the Board, Centre for Civil Liberties
Taras Tsymbrivksyy, Head, USAID Human Rights in Action Program; Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union

Still grappling with the war in the east and the occupation of Crimea, Ukraine’s new leadership has announced its intention to develop its transitional justice infrastructure to respond to the human rights violations arising from Russia’s aggression. 

Numerous reports (not least ones by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine) list persecutions, illegal detentions, enforced disappearances, torture and killings among the crimes perpetrated in Crimea and parts of occupied Donbas. 

As Ukraine has only just started developing its transitional justice roadmap, this event will seek to discuss viable initial approaches, such as a ‘truth-telling commission’ or amnesties. 

The panellists will also discuss the role for civil society and those directly affected by hostilities in the transitional justice process.  

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Belarusians Left Facing COVID-19 Alone

16 April 2020

Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Anaïs Marin

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The way the epidemic is being mismanaged creates a risk of political destabilisation and leaves the country exposed to external influence.

2020-04-16-Belarus-COVID-Football

Playing accordion in front of dummy football fans in Brest, Belarus as the country's championship continues despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.

Since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, few countries have chosen to ignore social distancing recommendations. But, even among those states which have, the Belarusian official response to its epidemic remains unique.

President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s statements that vodka, sauna and tractors are protecting Belarusians from coronavirus attracted amused attention in international media. Lukashenka also described other societies’ response to COVID-19 as ‘a massive psychosis’.

Although Lukashenka is notorious for his awkward style of public communication, the fact that Belarus is refusing to impose comprehensive confinement measures is of concern. Belarusians continue to work, play football and socialise.

Lukashenka, himself playing ice hockey in front of state cameras, claims it is the best way to stay healthy. Belarusian authorities clearly appear to be in denial – and this could have dire humanitarian consequences.

From denial to half measures

Belarus actually has one of the largest numbers of hospital beds in the world per 1,000 of the population. But in the absence of quarantine measures its health system, already crippled by corruption and embezzlement, is likely to be overwhelmed.

Patients being treated for pneumonia in hospitals have suggested medical staff are uninformed and inadequately equipped. It is claimed doctors are not reporting COVID-19 as the suspected cause of death, either through a lack of testing or for fear of reprisals.

Observers believe the real mortality rate is already well above official figures (40 deaths as of 16 April). Based on an Imperial College London model, between 15,000 and 32,000 people could die under the current mild confinement regime – and such a high death toll would hugely impact the country’s political stability. Citing personal data protection, the Ministry of Health has imposed a total news blackout; the only cluster officially acknowledged so far is the city of Vitsebsk.

Although specific Belarusian cities and some individuals started changing their approach – by extending school vacations or cancelling weddings – such measures remain half-hearted.

Clearly a major reason for such an apparently irresponsible reaction is that Belarus cannot afford a massive lockdown that would freeze its already underdeveloped economy and drive it deeper into recession. Unlike many other nations, Belarus lacks budgetary resources for a sizable stimulus package. But a delayed response might backfire on the economy.

Economic recession has been forecast to amount to at least 10% of GDP. For Lukashenka, who openly challenged conventional wisdom regarding the need for quarantine and isolation, such an economic downturn would harm his confidence rating in the eyes of Belarusian voters, mindful of the state’s mismanagement of the crisis. And it could create doubt within the ruling elite itself, with Lukashenka seeking re-election for a sixth mandate in late August.

Against this backdrop, a radicalization of the opposition-minded part of society is also to be expected, with greater reliance on social networks in the face of official secrecy and disinformation. The expected response of the regime is then likely to be pre-emptive repression. Evidence is emerging that law enforcement agencies have already stepped up judicial and paralegal harassment of dissenters, notably independent journalists and bloggers.

Russia’s initial reluctance to address the coronavirus crisis may also have influenced Belarus. Lukashenka and his administration often react to public health challenges by the Soviet rulebook, reminiscent of the Soviet authorities’ mismanagement of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

Russia has unilaterally closed its borders with Belarus and, as bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, this casts further doubt on the viability of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Pro-Russian media forecast Moscow will be unwilling to alleviate the expected socio-economic crisis, as it continues to reject Minsk’s demands regarding subsidised oil deliveries. Yet the Kremlin might use the crisis as an opportunity to resume its integrationist pressure on Belarus.

China, with which Belarus engaged in a seemingly privileged strategic partnership in the 2010s, was actually the first country to dispatch humanitarian aid to beef up Belarusian capacity to fight the virus.

But Minsk should not expect Beijing to rescue its economy and, unless it commits to more internal reforms, Belarus is not likely to receive much from the EU either. The regime has already applied to the IMF for emergency financial support, but conditions are attached and, even if successful, the funds would amount to no more than $900m.

The government’s decision to take only half measures so far is rooted in the hope COVID-19 is not as bad as foreign experts fear. But, unless the leadership acknowledges the public health crisis and mitigates its economic impact, COVID-19 will accelerate Belarus’s slide back into international self-isolation. If combined with a humanitarian crisis, this will put the Belarusian regime under considerable stress.

This crisis does risk a new ‘Chernobyl moment’ for the authorities, but the population could react more vocally this time. As volunteers self-organise to fight the epidemic, it might become more difficult for the authorities to say that it is efficient in running the country. But the bottom line is Belarus desperately needs money. Whoever steps up to support Belarus financially will also be able to heavily influence its politics.




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A novel GPER antagonist protects against the formation of estrogen-induced cholesterol gallstones in female mice [Research Articles]

Many clinical studies and epidemiological investigations have clearly demonstrated that women are twice as likely to develop cholesterol gallstones as men, and oral contraceptives and other estrogen therapies dramatically increase that risk. Further, animal studies have revealed that estrogen promotes cholesterol gallstone formation through the estrogen receptor (ER) α, but not ERβ, pathway. More importantly, some genetic and pathophysiological studies have found that G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) 1 is a new gallstone gene, Lith18, on chromosome 5 in mice and produces additional lithogenic actions, working independently of ERα, to markedly increase cholelithogenesis in female mice. Based on computational modeling of GPER, a novel series of GPER-selective antagonists were designed, synthesized, and subsequently assessed for their therapeutic effects via calcium mobilization, cAMP, and ERα and ERβ fluorescence polarization binding assays. From this series of compounds, one new compound, 2-cyclohexyl-4-isopropyl-N-(4-methoxybenzyl)aniline (CIMBA), exhibits superior antagonism and selectivity exclusively for GPER. Furthermore, CIMBA reduces the formation of 17β-estradiol-induced gallstones in a dose-dependent manner in ovariectomized mice fed a lithogenic diet for 8 weeks. At 32 μg/day/kg CIMBA, no gallstones are found, even in ovariectomized ERα (–/–) mice treated with 6 μg/day 17β-estradiol and fed the lithogenic diet for 8 weeks. In conclusion, CIMBA treatment protects against the formation of estrogen-induced cholesterol gallstones by inhibiting the GPER signaling pathway in female mice. CIMBA may thus be a new agent for effectively treating cholesterol gallstone disease in women.­




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65852: The PANEL procedure produces incorrect results for certain models when the NOINT and RANONE options are specified

The estimation results might be incorrect in PROC PANEL when the RANONE and NOINT options are specified in the MODEL statement.




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65918: SAS Workflow Services fails to respond after a com.sas.workflow.engine.policy.PolicyExecutionException error occurs for a workflow instance

When the problem occurs, you are unable to perform any workflow actions in a SAS solution that uses SAS Workflow Services.




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 64285: The SCD Type 2 Loader transformation in SAS Data Integration Studio generates "ERROR 22-322: Syntax error, expecting one of the following:..."

If your business key column is a name literal, like " business key "n, a syntax error occurs when that variable name does not follow standard SAS naming conventions.




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Revisiting Proinsulin Processing: Evidence That Human {beta}-Cells Process Proinsulin With Prohormone Convertase (PC) 1/3 But Not PC2

Insulin is first produced in pancreatic β-cells as the precursor prohormone proinsulin. Defective proinsulin processing has been implicated in the pathogenesis of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Though there is substantial evidence that mouse β-cells process proinsulin using prohormone convertase 1/3 (PC1/3) then prohormone convertase 2 (PC2), this finding has not been verified in human β-cells. Immunofluorescence with validated antibodies reveals that there was no detectable PC2 immunoreactivity in human β-cells and little PCSK2 mRNA by in situ hybridization. Similarly, rat β-cells were not immunoreactive for PC2. In all histological experiments, PC2 immunoreactivity in neighbouring α-cells acts as a positive control. In donors with type 2 diabetes, β-cells had elevated PC2 immunoreactivity, suggesting that aberrant PC2 expression may contribute to impaired proinsulin processing in β-cells of patients with diabetes. To support histological findings using a biochemical approach, human islets were used for pulse-chase experiments. Despite inhibition of PC2 function by temperature blockade, brefeldin-A, chloroquine, and multiple inhibitors that blocked production of mature glucagon from proglucagon, β-cells retained the ability to produce mature insulin. Conversely, suppression of PC1/3 blocked processing of proinsulin but not proglucagon. By demonstrating that healthy human β-cells process proinsulin by PC1/3 but not PC2 we suggest that there is a need to revise the longstanding theory of proinsulin processing.




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Pharmacologic PPAR-{gamma} Activation Reprograms Bone Marrow Macrophages and Partially Rescues HSPC Mobilization in Human and Murine Diabetes

Mobilization of hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) from the bone marrow (BM) is impaired in diabetes. Excess oncostatin M (OSM) produced by M1 macrophages in the diabetic BM signals through p66Shc to induce Cxcl12 in stromal cells and retain HSPCs. BM adipocytes are another source of CXCL12 that blunts mobilization. We tested a strategy of pharmacologic macrophage reprogramming to rescue HSPC mobilization. In vitro, PPAR- activation with pioglitazone switched macrophages from M1 to M2, reduced Osm expression, and prevented transcellular induction of Cxcl12. In diabetic mice, pioglitazone treatment downregulated Osm, p66Shc and Cxcl12 in the hematopoietic BM, restored the effects of granulocyte-colony stimulation factor (G-CSF), and partially rescued HSPC mobilization, but it increased BM adipocytes. Osm deletion recapitulated the effects of pioglitazone on adipogenesis, which was p66Shc-independent, and double knockout of Osm and p66Shc completely rescued HSPC mobilization. In the absence of OSM, BM adipocytes produced less CXCL12, being arguably devoid of HSPC-retaining activity, whereas pioglitazone failed to downregulate Cxcl12 in BM adipocytes. In diabetic patients under pioglitazone therapy, HSPC mobilization after G-CSF was partially rescued. In summary, pioglitazone reprogrammed BM macrophages and suppressed OSM signaling, but sustained Cxcl12 expression by BM adipocytes could limit full recovery of HSPC mobilization.




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The focal adhesion protein kindlin-2 controls mitotic spindle assembly by inhibiting histone deacetylase 6 and maintaining {alpha}-tubulin acetylation [Signal Transduction]

Kindlins are focal adhesion proteins that regulate integrin activation and outside-in signaling. The kindlin family consists of three members, kindlin-1, -2, and -3. Kindlin-2 is widely expressed in multiple cell types, except those from the hematopoietic lineage. A previous study has reported that the Drosophila Fit1 protein (an ortholog of kindlin-2) prevents abnormal spindle assembly; however, the mechanism remains unknown. Here, we show that kindlin-2 maintains spindle integrity in mitotic human cells. The human neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y cell line expresses only kindlin-2, and we found that when SH-SY5Y cells are depleted of kindlin-2, they exhibit pronounced spindle abnormalities and delayed mitosis. Of note, acetylation of α-tubulin, which maintains microtubule flexibility and stability, was diminished in the kindlin-2–depleted cells. Mechanistically, we found that kindlin-2 maintains α-tubulin acetylation by inhibiting the microtubule-associated deacetylase histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6) via a signaling pathway involving AKT Ser/Thr kinase (AKT)/glycogen synthase kinase 3β (GSK3β) or paxillin. We also provide evidence that prolonged hypoxia down-regulates kindlin-2 expression, leading to spindle abnormalities not only in the SH-SY5Y cell line, but also cell lines derived from colon and breast tissues. The findings of our study highlight that kindlin-2 regulates mitotic spindle assembly and that this process is perturbed in cancer cells in a hypoxic environment.




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The testis-specific LINC component SUN3 is essential for sperm head shaping during mouse spermiogenesis [Cell Biology]

Sperm head shaping is a key event in spermiogenesis and is tightly controlled via the acrosome–manchette network. Linker of nucleoskeleton and cytoskeleton (LINC) complexes consist of Sad1 and UNC84 domain–containing (SUN) and Klarsicht/ANC-1/Syne-1 homology (KASH) domain proteins and form conserved nuclear envelope bridges implicated in transducing mechanical forces from the manchette to sculpt sperm nuclei into a hook-like shape. However, the role of LINC complexes in sperm head shaping is still poorly understood. Here we assessed the role of SUN3, a testis-specific LINC component harboring a conserved SUN domain, in spermiogenesis. We show that CRISPR/Cas9-generated Sun3 knockout male mice are infertile, displaying drastically reduced sperm counts and a globozoospermia-like phenotype, including a missing, mislocalized, or fragmented acrosome, as well as multiple defects in sperm flagella. Further examination revealed that the sperm head abnormalities are apparent at step 9 and that the sperm nuclei fail to elongate because of the absence of manchette microtubules and perinuclear rings. These observations indicate that Sun3 deletion likely impairs the ability of the LINC complex to transduce the cytoskeletal force to the nuclear envelope, required for sperm head elongation. We also found that SUN3 interacts with SUN4 in mouse testes and that the level of SUN4 proteins is drastically reduced in Sun3-null mice. Altogether, our results indicate that SUN3 is essential for sperm head shaping and male fertility, providing molecular clues regarding the underlying pathology of the globozoospermia-like phenotype.




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Glycation-mediated inter-protein cross-linking is promoted by chaperone-client complexes of {alpha}-crystallin: Implications for lens aging and presbyopia [Glycobiology and Extracellular Matrices]

Lens proteins become increasingly cross-linked through nondisulfide linkages during aging and cataract formation. One mechanism that has been implicated in this cross-linking is glycation through formation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). Here, we found an age-associated increase in stiffness in human lenses that was directly correlated with levels of protein–cross-linking AGEs. α-Crystallin in the lens binds to other proteins and prevents their denaturation and aggregation through its chaperone-like activity. Using a FRET-based assay, we examined the stability of the αA-crystallin–γD-crystallin complex for up to 12 days and observed that this complex is stable in PBS and upon incubation with human lens–epithelial cell lysate or lens homogenate. Addition of 2 mm ATP to the lysate or homogenate did not decrease the stability of the complex. We also generated complexes of human αA-crystallin or αB-crystallin with alcohol dehydrogenase or citrate synthase by applying thermal stress. Upon glycation under physiological conditions, the chaperone–client complexes underwent greater extents of cross-linking than did uncomplexed protein mixtures. LC-MS/MS analyses revealed that the levels of cross-linking AGEs were significantly higher in the glycated chaperone–client complexes than in glycated but uncomplexed protein mixtures. Mouse lenses subjected to thermal stress followed by glycation lost resilience more extensively than lenses subjected to thermal stress or glycation alone, and this loss was accompanied by higher protein cross-linking and higher cross-linking AGE levels. These results uncover a protein cross-linking mechanism in the lens and suggest that AGE-mediated cross-linking of α-crystallin–client complexes could contribute to lens aging and presbyopia.




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A Legionella effector kinase is activated by host inositol hexakisphosphate [Enzymology]

The transfer of a phosphate from ATP to a protein substrate, a modification known as protein phosphorylation, is catalyzed by protein kinases. Protein kinases play a crucial role in virtually every cellular activity. Recent studies of atypical protein kinases have highlighted the structural similarity of the kinase superfamily despite notable differences in primary amino acid sequence. Here, using a bioinformatics screen, we searched for putative protein kinases in the intracellular bacterial pathogen Legionella pneumophila and identified the type 4 secretion system effector Lpg2603 as a remote member of the protein kinase superfamily. Employing an array of biochemical and structural biology approaches, including in vitro kinase assays and isothermal titration calorimetry, we show that Lpg2603 is an active protein kinase with several atypical structural features. Importantly, we found that the eukaryote-specific host signaling molecule inositol hexakisphosphate (IP6) is required for Lpg2603 kinase activity. Crystal structures of Lpg2603 in the apo-form and when bound to IP6 revealed an active-site rearrangement that allows for ATP binding and catalysis. Our results on the structure and activity of Lpg2603 reveal a unique mode of regulation of a protein kinase, provide the first example of a bacterial kinase that requires IP6 for its activation, and may aid future work on the function of this effector during Legionella pathogenesis.




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The Histone Methyltransferase MLL1 Directs Macrophage-Mediated Inflammation in Wound Healing and Is Altered in a Murine Model of Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes

Andrew S. Kimball
Sep 1, 2017; 66:2459-2471
Immunology and Transplantation




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The Incretin Approach for Diabetes Treatment: Modulation of Islet Hormone Release by GLP-1 Agonism

Jens Juul Holst
Dec 1, 2004; 53:S197-S204
Section V: The Incretin Pathway




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One Week of Bed Rest Leads to Substantial Muscle Atrophy and Induces Whole-Body Insulin Resistance in the Absence of Skeletal Muscle Lipid Accumulation

Marlou L. Dirks
Oct 1, 2016; 65:2862-2875
Metabolism




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Correction: Histone demethylase KDM6B promotes epithelial-mesenchymal transition. [Additions and Corrections]

VOLUME 287 (2012) PAGES 44508–44517In Fig. 1A, the wrong image for the control group was presented. The authors inadvertently cropped the control images in Fig. 1, A and E, from the same raw image. Fig. 1A has now been corrected and does not affect the results or conclusions of the work. The authors sincerely apologize for their mistake during figure preparation and for any inconvenience this may have caused readers.jbc;295/19/6781/F1F1F1Figure 1A.




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Cueto nearing milestone in Tommy John rehab

The road back from Tommy John surgery is often long and tedious, but Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto has a notable milestone approaching.




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Duggar, Jones cleared for next step in recovery

Steven Duggar and Ryder Jones continue to take steps forward in their rehab, as they were both cleared to take batting practice on the field Friday for the first time since their September surgeries.




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POSTPONED: Supporting Civic Space: The Role and Impact of the Private Sector

Invitation Only Research Event

16 March 2020 - 11:00am to 5:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

A healthy civic space is vital for an enabling business environment. In recognition of this, a growing number of private sector actors are challenging, publicly or otherwise, the deteriorating environment for civic freedoms.

However, this corporate activism is often limited and largely ad hoc. It remains confined to a small cluster of multinationals leaving potential routes for effective coordination and collaboration with other actors underexplored.

This roundtable will bring together a diverse and international group of business actors, civil society actors and foreign policy experts to exchange perspectives and experiences on how the private sector can be involved in issues around civic space. The meeting will provide an opportunity to explore the drivers of – and barriers to – corporate activism, develop a better understanding of existing initiatives, identify good practice and discuss practical strategies for the business community.

This meeting will be the first of a series of roundtables at Chatham House in support of initiatives to build broad alliances for the protection of civic space. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 

Jacqueline Rowe

Programme Assistant, International Law Programme
020 7389 3287




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Kate Jones

Associate Fellow, International Law Programme

Biography

Kate focuses on cyber and human rights law issues, and is author of Chatham House’s research paper on Online Disinformation and Political Discourse: Applying a Human Rights Framework.

Kate is based at the University of Oxford, where she is a member of the Law Faculty and directs the Diplomatic Studies Programme, a set of postgraduate courses for diplomats. 

She gained much of her experience in human rights law and public international law as a lawyer at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, both in London and overseas as Legal Adviser at the UK Mission to the United Nations in Geneva and then Deputy Permanent Representative at the UK Delegation to the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. 

She took her undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in law at the University of Oxford, and qualified as a solicitor at Norton Rose.

Areas of expertise

  • Cyber and human rights law (disinformation, elections, social media platforms, etc)
  • Human rights law
  • Public international law
  • Diplomatic skills and training

Past experience

2015 - presentDirector, Diplomatic Studies Programme; Member of University Law Faculty; Fellow of Kellogg College, University of Oxford
2014-15Research and Outreach Specialist, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
2011-14Deputy Permanent Representative, UK Delegation to Council of Europe
2008-11Legal Adviser, UK Mission to the United Nations
2002-07Assistant Legal Adviser, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office
1997-2001Trainee, then Assistant Solicitor, Norton Rose
1999Judicial Assistant, Court of Appeal (secondment)




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The EU Cannot Build a Foreign Policy on Regulatory Power Alone

11 February 2020

Alan Beattie

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme and Europe Programme
Brussels will find its much-vaunted heft in setting standards cannot help it advance its geopolitical interests.

2020-02-11-Leyen.jpg

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks at the European Parliament in Strasbourg in February. Photo: Getty Images.

There are two well-established ideas in trade. Individually, they are correct. Combined, they can lead to a conclusion that is unfortunately wrong.

The first idea is that, across a range of economic sectors, the EU and the US have been engaged in a battle to have their model of regulation accepted as the global one, and that the EU is generally winning.

The second is that governments can use their regulatory power to extend strategic and foreign policy influence.

The conclusion would seem to be that the EU, which has for decades tried to develop a foreign policy, should be able to use its superpower status in regulation and trade to project its interests and its values abroad.

That’s the theory. It’s a proposition much welcomed by EU policymakers, who know they are highly unlikely any time soon to acquire any of the tools usually required to run an effective foreign policy.

The EU doesn’t have an army it can send into a shooting war, enough military or political aid to prop up or dispense of governments abroad, or a centralized intelligence service. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has declared her outfit to be a ‘geopolitical commission’, and is casting about for any means of making that real.

Through the ‘Brussels effect’ whereby European rules and standards are exported via both companies and governments, the EU has indeed won many regulatory battles with the US.

Its cars, chemicals and product safety regulations are more widely adopted round the world than their American counterparts. In the absence of any coherent US offering, bar some varied state-level systems, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is the closest thing the world has to a single model for data privacy, and variants of it are being adopted by dozens of countries.

The problem is this. Those parts of global economic governance where the US is dominant – particularly the dollar payments system – are highly conducive to projecting US power abroad. The extraterritorial reach of secondary sanctions, plus the widespread reliance of banks and companies worldwide on dollar funding – and hence the American financial system – means that the US can precisely target its influence.

The EU can enforce trade sanctions, but not in such a powerful and discriminatory way, and it will always be outgunned by the US. Donald Trump could in effect force European companies to join in his sanctions on Iran when he pulled out of the nuclear deal, despite EU legislation designed to prevent their businesses being bullied. He can go after the chief financial officer of Huawei for allegedly breaching those sanctions.

By contrast, the widespread adoption of GDPR or data protection regimes inspired by it may give the EU a warm glow of satisfaction, but it cannot be turned into a geopolitical tool in the same way.

Nor, necessarily, does it particularly benefit the EU economy. Europe’s undersized tech sector seems unlikely to unduly benefit from the fact that data protection rules were written in the EU. Indeed, one common criticism of the regulations is that they entrench the power of incumbent tech giants like Google.

There is a similar pattern at work in the adoption of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. In that field, the EU and its member states are also facing determined competition from China, which has been pushing its technologies and standards through forums such as the International Telecommunication Union.

The EU has been attempting to write international rules for the use of AI which it hopes to be widely adopted. But again, these are a constraint on the use of new technologies largely developed by others, not the control of innovation.

By contrast, China has created a vast domestic market in technologies like facial recognition and unleashed its own companies on it. The resulting surveillance kit can then be marketed to emerging market governments as part of China’s enduring foreign policy campaign to build up supporters in the developing world.

If it genuinely wants to turn its economic power into geopolitical influence – and it’s not entirely clear what it would do with it if it did – the EU needs to recognize that not all forms of regulatory and trading dominance are the same.

Providing public goods to the world economy is all very well. But unless they are so particular in nature that they project uniquely European values and interests, that makes the EU a supplier of useful plumbing but not a global architect of power.

On the other hand, it could content itself with its position for the moment. It could recognize that not until enough hard power – guns, intelligence, money – is transferred from the member states to the centre, or until the member states start acting collectively, will the EU genuinely become a geopolitical force. Speaking loudly and carrying a stick of foam rubber is rarely a way to gain credibility in international relations.

This article is part of a series of publications and roundtable discussions in the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.




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One of two men murdered in Swallowfield identified

One of the two men killed in Swallowfield, along Old Hope Road in St Andrew, yesterday has now been identified.  The police say he is 40 year-old Clinton Jarrett, a welder of Cambridge district, St. Andrew. The other man is yet...




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POSTPONED: Transitional Justice in Ukraine: What Might it Look Like?

Invitation Only Research Event

17 March 2020 - 9:30am to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Kirsty Brimelow QC, Barrister, Doughty Street Chambers
Miles Jackson, Associate Professor of Law, University of Oxford
Anton Korynevych, Representative of the President of Ukraine for Crimea
Oleksandra Matviychuk, Head of the Board, Centre for Civil Liberties
Taras Tsymbrivksyy, Head, USAID Human Rights in Action Program; Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union

Still grappling with the war in the east and the occupation of Crimea, Ukraine’s new leadership has announced its intention to develop its transitional justice infrastructure to respond to the human rights violations arising from Russia’s aggression. 

Numerous reports (not least ones by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine) list persecutions, illegal detentions, enforced disappearances, torture and killings among the crimes perpetrated in Crimea and parts of occupied Donbas. 

As Ukraine has only just started developing its transitional justice roadmap, this event will seek to discuss viable initial approaches, such as a ‘truth-telling commission’ or amnesties. 

The panellists will also discuss the role for civil society and those directly affected by hostilities in the transitional justice process.  

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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POSTPONED: Russia in MENA: An Update

Invitation Only Research Event

26 March 2020 - 9:30am to 11:00am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Nikolay Kozhanov, Research Associate Professor, Gulf Studies Center, Qatar University; Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House 
Chair: Sanam Vakil, Senior Research Fellow, Project Director, Future Dynamics of the Gulf, Middle East & North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Russia’s Middle East policy is driven by a complex mixture of traditional factors (such as the ongoing confrontation with the West) and new trends. The Kremlin is keen to maintain its position as an influential external broker. However, it is not confident Russia would be able to respond effectively if forced into a reactive mode by other regional players. The Kremlin therefore seeks to retain initiative and shape the agenda according to its needs and resources. This makes prediction of Moscow’s next moves in the region a challenging, but not impossible, task.

Nikolay Kozhanov will offer remarks on the changes that have taken place in Russia’s strategy since the publication of his research paper Russian Policy Across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods (2018).

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Belarusians Left Facing COVID-19 Alone

16 April 2020

Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Anaïs Marin

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
The way the epidemic is being mismanaged creates a risk of political destabilisation and leaves the country exposed to external influence.

2020-04-16-Belarus-COVID-Football

Playing accordion in front of dummy football fans in Brest, Belarus as the country's championship continues despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.

Since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic, few countries have chosen to ignore social distancing recommendations. But, even among those states which have, the Belarusian official response to its epidemic remains unique.

President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s statements that vodka, sauna and tractors are protecting Belarusians from coronavirus attracted amused attention in international media. Lukashenka also described other societies’ response to COVID-19 as ‘a massive psychosis’.

Although Lukashenka is notorious for his awkward style of public communication, the fact that Belarus is refusing to impose comprehensive confinement measures is of concern. Belarusians continue to work, play football and socialise.

Lukashenka, himself playing ice hockey in front of state cameras, claims it is the best way to stay healthy. Belarusian authorities clearly appear to be in denial – and this could have dire humanitarian consequences.

From denial to half measures

Belarus actually has one of the largest numbers of hospital beds in the world per 1,000 of the population. But in the absence of quarantine measures its health system, already crippled by corruption and embezzlement, is likely to be overwhelmed.

Patients being treated for pneumonia in hospitals have suggested medical staff are uninformed and inadequately equipped. It is claimed doctors are not reporting COVID-19 as the suspected cause of death, either through a lack of testing or for fear of reprisals.

Observers believe the real mortality rate is already well above official figures (40 deaths as of 16 April). Based on an Imperial College London model, between 15,000 and 32,000 people could die under the current mild confinement regime – and such a high death toll would hugely impact the country’s political stability. Citing personal data protection, the Ministry of Health has imposed a total news blackout; the only cluster officially acknowledged so far is the city of Vitsebsk.

Although specific Belarusian cities and some individuals started changing their approach – by extending school vacations or cancelling weddings – such measures remain half-hearted.

Clearly a major reason for such an apparently irresponsible reaction is that Belarus cannot afford a massive lockdown that would freeze its already underdeveloped economy and drive it deeper into recession. Unlike many other nations, Belarus lacks budgetary resources for a sizable stimulus package. But a delayed response might backfire on the economy.

Economic recession has been forecast to amount to at least 10% of GDP. For Lukashenka, who openly challenged conventional wisdom regarding the need for quarantine and isolation, such an economic downturn would harm his confidence rating in the eyes of Belarusian voters, mindful of the state’s mismanagement of the crisis. And it could create doubt within the ruling elite itself, with Lukashenka seeking re-election for a sixth mandate in late August.

Against this backdrop, a radicalization of the opposition-minded part of society is also to be expected, with greater reliance on social networks in the face of official secrecy and disinformation. The expected response of the regime is then likely to be pre-emptive repression. Evidence is emerging that law enforcement agencies have already stepped up judicial and paralegal harassment of dissenters, notably independent journalists and bloggers.

Russia’s initial reluctance to address the coronavirus crisis may also have influenced Belarus. Lukashenka and his administration often react to public health challenges by the Soviet rulebook, reminiscent of the Soviet authorities’ mismanagement of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.

Russia has unilaterally closed its borders with Belarus and, as bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, this casts further doubt on the viability of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. Pro-Russian media forecast Moscow will be unwilling to alleviate the expected socio-economic crisis, as it continues to reject Minsk’s demands regarding subsidised oil deliveries. Yet the Kremlin might use the crisis as an opportunity to resume its integrationist pressure on Belarus.

China, with which Belarus engaged in a seemingly privileged strategic partnership in the 2010s, was actually the first country to dispatch humanitarian aid to beef up Belarusian capacity to fight the virus.

But Minsk should not expect Beijing to rescue its economy and, unless it commits to more internal reforms, Belarus is not likely to receive much from the EU either. The regime has already applied to the IMF for emergency financial support, but conditions are attached and, even if successful, the funds would amount to no more than $900m.

The government’s decision to take only half measures so far is rooted in the hope COVID-19 is not as bad as foreign experts fear. But, unless the leadership acknowledges the public health crisis and mitigates its economic impact, COVID-19 will accelerate Belarus’s slide back into international self-isolation. If combined with a humanitarian crisis, this will put the Belarusian regime under considerable stress.

This crisis does risk a new ‘Chernobyl moment’ for the authorities, but the population could react more vocally this time. As volunteers self-organise to fight the epidemic, it might become more difficult for the authorities to say that it is efficient in running the country. But the bottom line is Belarus desperately needs money. Whoever steps up to support Belarus financially will also be able to heavily influence its politics.




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Keep me out of this one

the lone yellow pebble bore witness to the abduction that took place at midnight. The man was bound and gagged and led away as women wept. Keep me out of this one. Did you know that a bear needs twenty seven, Square miles of forest, to live? Keep me out of this one. The woman […]