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"Venezolanos en todo el mundo quieren recuperar la libertad de su país": J.J. Rendón




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Revenue Quality & Leverage

The coronavirus issue is likely to linger for some time.

Up to 70% of Germany could become infected & some countries like the UK are even considering herd immunity as a strategy:

"I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire"
- William Hanage

What if their models are broken?

Many companies like WeWork or Oyo have been fast and loose chasing growth while slower growing companies have been levering up to fund share buybacks. Airlines spent 96% of free cash flow on share buybacks. The airlines seek a $50 billion bailout package.

There are knock-on effects from Boeing to TripAdvisor to Google all the way down to travel affiliate blogger, local restaurants closing, the over-levered bus company going through bankruptcy & bondholders eating a loss on the debt.

Companies are going to let a lot of skeletons out of the closet as literally anything and everything bad gets attributed to coronavirus. Layoffs, renegotiating contracts, pausing ad budgets, renegotiating debts, requesting bailouts, etc. The Philippine stock market was recently trading at 2012 levels & closed indefinitely.

Brad Geddes mentioned advertisers have been aggressively pulling PPC budgets over the past week: “If you have to leave the house to engage in the service, it just seems like it’s not converting right now.”

During the prior recession Google repriced employee options to retain talent.

In spite of consumers being glued to the news, tier one news publishers are anticipating large ad revenue declines:

Some of the largest advertisers, including Procter & Gamble Unilever, Apple, Microsoft, Danone, AB InBev, Burberry and Aston Martin, made cuts to sales forecasts for the year. With the outlook for the spread of the virus changing by day, many companies are caught in a spiral of uncertainty. That tends to gum up decisions, and ad spending is an easy expenditure to put on pause. The New York Times has warned that it expects advertising revenue to decline “in the mid-teens” in the current quarter as a result of coronavirus.

More time online might mean search engines & social networks capture a greater share of overall ad spend, but if large swaths of the economy do not convert & how people live changes for an extended period of time it will take time for the new categories to create the economic engines replacing the old out-of-favor categories.

[IMPORTANT: insert affiliate ad for cruise vacations here]

As Google sees advertisers pause ad budgets Google will get more aggressive with keeping users on their site & displacing organic click flows with additional ad clicks on the remaining advertisers.

When Google or Facebook see a 5% or 10% pullback other industry players might see a 30% to 50% decline as the industry pulls back broadly, focuses more resources on the core, and the big attention merchants offset their losses by clamping down on other players.

At its peak TripAdvisor was valued at about $14 billion & it is now valued at about $2 billion.

TripAdvisor announced layoffs. As did Expedia. As did Booking.com. As did many hotels. And airlines. etc. etc. etc.

I am not suggesting people should be fearful or dominated by negative emotions. Rather one should live as though many other will be living that way.

In times of elevated uncertainty, in business it is best to not be led by emotions unless they are positive ones. Spend a bit more time playing if you can afford to & work more on things you love.

Right now we might be living through the flu pandemic of 1918 and the Great Depression of 1929 while having constant access to social media updates. And that's awful.

Consume less but deeper. Less Twitter, less news, fewer big decisions, read more books.

It is better to be more pragmatic & logic-based in determining opportunity cost & the best strategy to use than to be led by extreme fear.

  • If you have sustainable high-margin revenue treasure it.
  • If you have low-margin revenue it might quickly turn into negative margin revenues unless something changes quickly.
  • If you have low-margin revenue which is sustainable but under-performed less stable high-margin revenues you might want to put a bit more effort into those sorts of projects as they are more likely to endure.

On a positive note, we might soon get a huge wave of innovation...

"Take the Great Depression. Economist Alexander Field writes that “the years 1929–1941 were, in the aggregate, the most technologically progressive of any comparable period in U.S. economic history.” Productivity growth was twice as fast in the 1930s as it was in the decade prior. The 1920s were the era of leisure because people could afford to relax. The 1930s were the era of frantic problem solving because people had no other choice. The Great Depression brought unimaginable financial pain. It also brought us supermarkets, microwaves, sunscreen, jets, rockets, electron microscopes, magnetic recording, nylon, photocopying, teflon, helicopters, color TV, plexiglass, commercial aviation, most forms of plastic, synthetic rubber, laundromats, and countless other discoveries."

The prior recession led to trends like Groupon. The McJobs recovery led to services like Uber & DoorDash. Food delivery has been trending south recently, though perhaps the stay-at-home economy will give it a boost.

I have been amazed at how fast affiliates moved with pushing N95 face masks online over the past couple months. Seeing how fast that stuff spun up really increases the perceived value of any sustainable high-margin businesses.

Amazon.com is hiring another 100,000 warehouse workers as people shop from home. Amazon banned new face masks and hand sanitizer listings. One guy had to donate around 18,000 cleaning products he couldn't sell.

I could see online education becoming far more popular as people aim to retrain while stuck at home.

What sorts of new industries will current & new technologies lead to as more people spend time working from home?




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Temperatures and pollen counts both predicted to rise this week in Seattle area


Masks may not help protect you from pollen, but they'll protect others from your sneezes, which is more important than ever during this coronavirus pandemic.




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Seattle-area temperatures could soon hit the 80s; here’s your forecast for the week


The early part of the week will seem like more of the same, but an approaching high-pressure ridge could really heat things up for the weekend.




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At Emerald City Comic Con, comics are just the start


There's a "Back to the Future" panel with the actors from the 1985 film, appearances by celebs from various franchises, including The Avenger's Mark Ruffalo, and more scheduled for ECCC 2020.




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Emerald City Comic Con to allow refunds for fans who decide not to go due to coronavirus concerns


Emerald City Comic Con organizers said Wednesday morning that they will change their policy and allow refunds to fans who choose not to attend this year because of coronavirus concerns.





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Washington Attorney General’s Office looking into complaints about Brown Paper Tickets owing artists money


Earlier this year, clients of the Seattle-based online ticket broker — many of them artists and small-business owners — said they haven't been paid for events, some dating back to last year. Some, still unpaid, have been turning to Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson for help.




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Alaska fisheries to get $50M in federal aid amid pandemic


JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — Alaska will receive $50 million in federal coronavirus aid for fisheries, the U.S. Department of Commerce has announced, about half what state officials had expected. Alaska is home to large stocks of pollock, an inexpensive fish used in fast-food sandwiches and fish sticks, and landed 58% of the nation’s seafood by […]




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Amazon prepares first earnings report from coronavirus era, as pandemic accelerates retail trends in its favor


The company’s first-quarter earnings report will provide a view of how the pandemic has accelerated trends already working in its favor, and the extent to which coronavirus restrictions on businesses and consumers have boosted Amazon’s sales.




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Nordstrom permanently closing 16 full-line stores as it adapts to coronavirus era


The Seattle-based company also said Wednesday it will make changes to how its stores function when they do open in a “market-by-market” approach.




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Mask or no mask? New social tension splits Seattle-area residents in coronavirus era


Since health officials began recommending (but not requiring) that everyone cover their faces in public to reduce the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, a new divide has emerged over who wears a mask and who doesn't.




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Pair of valuable bonsai trees missing from Federal Way museum


The Pacific Bonsai Museum did not provide a dollar value for the trees, but called one "truly irreplaceable" and said both were at risk of damage or death if not returned to the museum's care.




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Feed the soul: In chaotic times, gardening becomes therapy


CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Dig. Plant. Breathe. As spring’s arrival in the Northern Hemisphere coincides with government stay-at-home orders, the itch to get outside has turned backyard gardens into a getaway for the mind in chaotic times. Gardeners who already know that working with soil is a way to connect with nature say it helps […]




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Mask or no mask? New social tension splits Seattle-area residents in coronavirus era


Since health officials began recommending (but not requiring) that everyone cover their faces in public to reduce the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, a new divide has emerged over who wears a mask and who doesn't.




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Seattle police release 911 call, body camera video showing suspect shot as he held baby


Seattle police Friday released part of a recording of a mother’s frantic 911 call and footage from an officer’s body camera that includes a brief foot chase and the moment police shot the man suspected of taking the woman’s baby as he still held the child. The child was not hurt, police said, while the […]




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King County agrees to $2.25M settlement with family of teen killed in misguided sheriff’s sting operation


The high school senior was killed as he tried to flee from three plainclothes sheriff's detectives who sprang from the back of an unmarked van on a darkened Des Moines street the night of Jan. 27, 2017.




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Pacific Northwest Ballet receives $3 million in federal coronavirus-aid funds, to cover 8 weeks of pay


The company has received a $3 million loan from the federal Paycheck Protection Program, allowing it to cover eight weeks of pay.




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From ‘Jeopardy!’ to opera, our arts critic picks 6 of the best events to watch or listen to May 1-7


Here are a few arts-and-entertainment-y online diversions for the week, from near and far, including Seattle Opera on KING-FM and New York City Ballet.




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Washington Attorney General’s Office looking into complaints about Brown Paper Tickets owing artists money


Earlier this year, clients of the Seattle-based online ticket broker — many of them artists and small-business owners — said they haven't been paid for events, some dating back to last year. Some, still unpaid, have been turning to Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson for help.




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Alaska fisheries to get $50M in federal aid amid pandemic


JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — Alaska will receive $50 million in federal coronavirus aid for fisheries, the U.S. Department of Commerce has announced, about half what state officials had expected. Alaska is home to large stocks of pollock, an inexpensive fish used in fast-food sandwiches and fish sticks, and landed 58% of the nation’s seafood by […]




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Buzzkill: Oregon bans cannabis-infused alcoholic beverages


SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Oregon is renowned for its craft beer and increasingly for its high-grade marijuana, but the state is keeping the two apart — for now. In a new ruling, the Oregon Liquor Control Commission, which regulates both alcoholic products and recreational marijuana, says beer and other alcoholic drinks as of Jan. 1 […]




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America’s marijuana growers are the best in the world, but federal laws are keeping them out of global markets


The U.S. marijuana business has the potential to grow into a global industry, challenging Canadian cannabis growers.




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Cora Jean Howard, 77, a veteran Seattle teacher who leaves a legacy of empathy, dies of coronavirus


"Sometimes you take your car in to get service, and that person takes care of your car like it's theirs. She did that for her students, and so many other people, too," said Theodore "Ted" Howard II, her son. 




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Veteran Chinese diplomat and Mao Zedong’s interpreter dies


BEIJING (AP) — Ji Chaozhu, a veteran Chinese diplomat who provided English translation for leaders including Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping and served as an undersecretary of the United Nations, has died, the foreign ministry said. He was 90. Ji also served as ambassador to Britain over the course of a lengthy career that began […]




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Czech, US to cooperate on security of 5G networks


PRAGUE (AP) — The Czech Republic and the United States have signed a joint declaration Wednesday for cooperating on security of 5G technology. The Czech government office said the document was signed remotely by Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The signing comes amid a global battle between the […]




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China’s military is tied to debilitating new cyberattack tool


China’s cyberespionage efforts have shown no sign of relenting globally and may be intensifying as tensions with Australia, the United States and other countries have risen over trade, technology, and disputes over the coronavirus pandemic.



  • Nation & World
  • Nation & World Politics
  • Technology

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Seattle-area mortgage delinquencies rose three times faster than U.S. average as coronavirus crisis grew


The rise in delinquencies, during a month when the opposite usually happens, is troubling to housing market watchers, but it doesn't yet spell a foreclosure boom like during the Great Recession.




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Seattle Opera receives $2.3 million in federal coronavirus-aid funds, allowing it to rehire 180 workers


Seattle Opera said Friday that it has received a $2.3 million loan under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), part of the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Previously, the company had reported layoffs for 215 artist and production jobs after Seattle Opera canceled “La bohème,” plus 12 administrators, as well as salary cuts for the […]




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From ‘Jeopardy!’ to opera, our arts critic picks 6 of the best events to watch or listen to May 1-7


Here are a few arts-and-entertainment-y online diversions for the week, from near and far, including Seattle Opera on KING-FM and New York City Ballet.




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Full coverage: Seahawks select five players on Day 3 to wrap 2020 draft class


Follow along throughout Day 3 of the 2020 NFL draft as our staff of reporters offers the latest on the Seahawks and the rest of the league.




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Alaska fisheries to get $50M in federal aid amid pandemic


JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — Alaska will receive $50 million in federal coronavirus aid for fisheries, the U.S. Department of Commerce has announced, about half what state officials had expected. Alaska is home to large stocks of pollock, an inexpensive fish used in fast-food sandwiches and fish sticks, and landed 58% of the nation’s seafood by […]




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Frontier just became the first U.S. airline to require passenger temperature screening


Frontier Airlines said Thursday it will require passengers to have their temperatures taken before boarding flights, starting June 1, in an effort to make traveling safer during the coronavirus pandemic. Anyone with a temperature of 100.4 or higher will not be allowed to fly, the budget carrier said. While the move is a first for […]




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Ring camera installed in a children’s room for ‘peace of mind’ is hacked, 8-year-old daughter harassed


When Alyssa LeMay heard the strange music and sounds coming from her bedroom, she walked in expecting to find one of her sisters. But the room was empty. Then, as the 8-year-old wandered around her room alone, the mysterious song abruptly stopped. “Hello there,” a man’s voice said. It wasn’t Alyssa’s father, who was elsewhere […]




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What’s that behind you? On virus-era TV, home backdrops star


Those who saw conservative commentator Bill Kristol on television one recent night may not remember what he said. But they’ll never forget the magnificent mess of a bookcase behind him. And there’s a growing army of viewers with just one question after tuning into any number of interviews that political commentator John Heilemann has given […]




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Dow Average, bracketed by Boeing and Microsoft, suffers worst quarter since 1987 as coronavirus pummels economy


As March ends, the first quarter's results include the biggest plunge ever in West Texas oil prices and the Dow's worst performance since 1987.




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What do zombies, puppies and hills have in common? They can all be part of your coronavirus-era fitness routine


So what if your gym is closed? There are lots of different ways to keep your fitness level up. Just look around your neighborhood and incorporate some of these fun little "games" into your workout routine.




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Seattle-area temperatures could soon hit the 80s; here’s your forecast for the week


The early part of the week will seem like more of the same, but an approaching high-pressure ridge could really heat things up for the weekend.




era

Mask or no mask? New social tension splits Seattle-area residents in coronavirus era


Since health officials began recommending (but not requiring) that everyone cover their faces in public to reduce the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, a new divide has emerged over who wears a mask and who doesn't.




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Feds will send $50 million in coronavirus relief to Washington seafood firms, fishermen, tribes, charter boat operators


Both Washington and Alaska will benefit from money carved out of the massive federal economic stimulus package known as the CARES ACT that is intended to assist in both direct and indirect fishery-related losses.




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Sea-Tac’s $192M in federal coronavirus relief won’t be enough to cover losses, officials say


Plummeting passenger traffic and flight cancellations will cost Seattle-Tacoma International Airport an estimated $251 million by the end of 2020.




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Boeing rules out federal aid after raising $25 billion of bonds


The planemaker won't seek additional funding through the capital markets or U.S. government aid at this time, according to a company statement late Thursday after the debt sale.




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Seattle Times wins Pulitzer Prize for Boeing 737 MAX coverage


The Seattle Times has been awarded a 2020 Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting for its yearlong coverage of the two deadly crashes of Boeing’s 737 MAX jet. This is the newspaper's 11th Pulitzer Prize.



  • Boeing & Aerospace
  • Inside the Times

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The orca and the orca catcher: How a generation of killer whales was taken from Puget Sound


HOSTILE WATERS | Namu was Ted Griffin’s greatest prize, a live killer whale, put on display at Seattle’s waterfront. The orca’s journey from wild to captive would spark a worldwide sensation and change everything we knew about "blackfish."




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Amazon prepares first earnings report from coronavirus era, as pandemic accelerates retail trends in its favor


The company’s first-quarter earnings report will provide a view of how the pandemic has accelerated trends already working in its favor, and the extent to which coronavirus restrictions on businesses and consumers have boosted Amazon’s sales.




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‘The hardest time we’ve ever faced’: Amazon revenue surges, but coronavirus costs may wipe out operating profit


The company's first-quarter sales rose 26% year over year to $75.5 billion. But expenses related to Amazon’s pandemic response weighed on the bottom line in the three-month period ended March 31.




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From ‘Jeopardy!’ to opera, our arts critic picks 6 of the best events to watch or listen to May 1-7


Here are a few arts-and-entertainment-y online diversions for the week, from near and far, including Seattle Opera on KING-FM and New York City Ballet.




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Washington Attorney General’s Office looking into complaints about Brown Paper Tickets owing artists money


Earlier this year, clients of the Seattle-based online ticket broker — many of them artists and small-business owners — said they haven't been paid for events, some dating back to last year. Some, still unpaid, have been turning to Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson for help.




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Longacres Mile headlines ‘Championship Sunday’ at Emerald Downs


The Emerald Distaff, the signature race of season for fillies and mares, has been on the same day as the Mile for years. This year, the track added the Muckleshoot Derby and the Washington Oaks.




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Killarney Lass has big win on Championship Sunday at Emerald Downs


My Grandpa pulled away late to win the Muckleshoot Derby, and No Talking Back won the Emerald Distaff during Championship Sunday at Emerald Downs.