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May is Mental Health Awareness Month - Finding Strength

Six people who have been affected by suicide talk about finding strength after their suicide attempt. Video produced by the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention.




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The Makers of Dinty Moore® Stew Challenge America's Lumbersexuals to Become Real Lumberjacks in STIHL® TIMBERSPORTS® Series Championship - Misery Whip Training

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Osteo Bi-Flex® Sets GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS Title For 'Largest Merengue Lesson' Led By Celebrity Choreographer Mary Murphy - Mary Murphy partners with Osteo Bi-Flex®

Mary Murphy partners with Osteo Bi-Flex®





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Airlines want relief from flying near-empty planes as passenger numbers hit lowest since the 1950s amid virus

Airlines want the government to loosen the amount of air service they're required to provide as the number of passengers on board hits the lowest since the 1950s.




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Tom Brady announces he will leave the New England Patriots

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Frontier Airlines to check passenger temperatures. Too high, you won't fly

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This is the key challenge for China carmakers

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World Bank: China's rebalancing act is challenging

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Stock market live Thursday: Nasdaq positive for the year, tech strength continues, Dow jumps 200

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The Englishman who lost his job after guiding New Zealand to the Olympics

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Toilet roll keepie-uppies: sports stars' coronavirus lockdown challenge – video

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Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle | Larry Elliott

Threadneedle Street says the economy hasn’t been as bad as this for 300 years – so it can only can get better

It’s hard to be all that cheerful when you are bracing yourself for the biggest annual contraction in the economy since before the South Sea Bubble crisis of 1720, but somehow or other the Bank of England has managed to find some nuggets of hope amid all the gloom.

To be sure, the short-term news from Threadneedle Street was as grim as everybody had expected. Having fallen by 3% in the first three months of 2020, activity is projected to drop by a further 25% in the second quarter and by 14% over the calendar year.

Related: Don't expect a snapback for the UK economy after lockdown is lifted | Larry Elliott

One of the two main definitions of recession in the UK is at least two quarters of negative economic growth. Judged by this yardstick, the UK was last in recession in 2008-09, when there were six consecutive quarters of negative growth. 

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UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

Bank outlines scale of Covid-19 shock in 2020 with forecast for deepest recession in 300 years

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 14% this year and unemployment more than double by spring as the coronavirus causes the deepest recession in modern history.

Leaving interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.1% as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures to contain its spread.

Related: Don't expect a snapback for the UK economy after lockdown is lifted | Larry Elliott

Related: Bank of England warns UK economy could shrink 14% in 2020 amid Covid-19 downturn - business live

Related: Bank of England warns UK economy could shrink 14% in 2020 amid Covid-19 downturn - business live

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Bank of England warns UK faces historic recession; US jobless claims hit 3.1m - business live

Britain’s central bank warns that the spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it could wipe 14% off UK GDP this year

Time to recap

Britain is facing its worst recession in 300 years, according to the latest scenario from the Bank of England. The BoE estimates that GDP will plunge by 25% this quarter, with unemployment hitting 9%, due to the abrupt halt to activity under the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

New unemployment claims filed in the past 7 weeks:

Week ending...
March 21: 3.3 million
March 28: 6.9 million (**a record**)
April 4: 6.6 million
April 11: 5.2 million
April 18: 4.4 million
April 25: 3.8 million
May 2: 3.2 million

Total: Nearly 33.5 million Americans w/out work pic.twitter.com/KZonDSSPG7

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 3.2m, down from the previous week’s figure of 3.8m and half the peak recorded 5 weeks ago, but roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. These figures support estimates of the April unemployment figure, to be released tomorrow, to reach a shocking 16%.

“Markets, however, are now looking beyond the employment data and forward to the potential recovery. With some US states now beginning to reopen for business, investors will be watching closely to see how quickly employees return to work and how rapidly economic activity bounces back.

A late rally has lifted the UK stock market to its highest level in a week.

The FTSE 100 has just closed 82 points higher at 5935, a gain of 1.4%.

The International Monetary Fund says it has approved requests for emergency pandemic aid totalling $18bn, from 50 of its 189 members, and is working through another 50 requests.

Reuters has more details;

The IMF’s executive board was working through requests at record speed and would consider a request from Egypt for both emergency financing and a stand-by lending arrangement on May 11, spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in an online briefing.

“It’s an IMF moving at an unprecedented speed in an unprecedented way to meet this unprecedented challenge which we’re all facing,” he said, noting the Fund had also temporarily suspended payments on IMF debts for 25 of the poorest countries.

The gloom in the luxury goods sector is deepening even though some countries have started to relax their coronavirus lockdowns.

“As consumers slowly emerge from lockdowns, the way they see the world will have changed and luxury brands will need to adapt.

Safety in store will be mandatory, paired with the magic of the luxury experience: creative ways to attract customers to store, or to get the product to the customer, will make the difference.”

Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management, doesn’t share the exuberance in the markets today.

“The US labor market is in the worst position since the Great Depression and is unlikely to improve sustainably anytime soon. Until widespread testing, an effective therapy, and a vaccine are in place, any improvement in employment is likely to be temporary.

Premature efforts to reopen economies undermine our progress in controlling the pandemic and risk extending the duration of the downturn.”

The Nasdaq has shrugged off Covid-19 fears because investors are rushing into “giant tech names that are considered more resilient in this crisis”, explained Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM.

That includes Amazon (up 27% this year) and Microsoft (up 16%).

Remarkably, the US Nasdaq index has now caught up all this year’s losses.

The tech-focused share index is now flat for 2020, thanks to strong recoveries in major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq is positive for the year. pic.twitter.com/HtkHzXAzEd

As expected, the US stock market has indeed jumped in early trading.

Jobless claims should be back below 1M by the 2nd or 3rd week of June; the rate of decay is quite consistent. pic.twitter.com/OtOoeir28P

European stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains, despite the latest grim US jobs data.

Wall Street is expected to open higher too, with the Dow up around 1% in pre-market trading.

Repeat after me.

Equities are forward looking jobless claims backward.

Therefore entirely normal at times for them to move in different directions. And yet we get the same old headlines asking why.

The spectre of unemployment is haunting America - but in some states more than others:

Jobless Claims Since March 20th as a Percent of Total State Employment: pic.twitter.com/me0mbMFvQj

Before the Covid-19 crisis began, America had never lost a million jobs in a single week before.

It has now suffered seven consecutive weeks of massive job losses, as firms have slashed staff under the coronavirus lockdown.

33.5 million Americans have filed jobless claims over the last 7 weeks. https://t.co/WIOd3ZzpVq pic.twitter.com/8vqdipxopI

Our US business editor Dominic Rushe says some US states are really struggling to cope with the unprecedented surge in unemployment.

He writes:

The pace of layoffs has overwhelmed state unemployment systems across the country. Over a million people in North Carolina have now made unemployment insurance benefit claims, equivalent to 20% of the state’s workforce.

Some 4 million have applied in California and the state’s jobless benefits fund is “very close” to running out, governor Gavin Newsom said this week.

Related: Coronavirus: three million more Americans file for unemployment

Some instant reaction to the latest US jobless report:

The effects of the #coronavirusrecession continue to ripple through the economy. In the week ending in May 2, 3.2 million workers filed for initial unemployment benefits, according to the @USDOL’s Weekly #unemploymentinsurance (UI) claims report. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/XUFFtG3Rpp

3.17 MILLION people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. Almost 33.5 MILLION filing jobless claims in 7 weeks. 1 in 5 Americans unemployed. These are lives and family shaken, devastated.

Though still tremendously elevated, the 3.2 mln new unempl claims continues downward trend as initial surge passes. But # of Americans receiving jobless benefits, pierced 22 mln. pic.twitter.com/b4SF5apZR6

Newsflash: Another 3.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobless crisis rages.

That’s down from 3.8m in the previous week, but still another awful number.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,169,000 for the week ending 5/2 (-677,000).

Insured unemployment was 22,647,000 for the week ending 4/25 (+4,636,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

Stocks are continuing to rise in London, seemingly lifted by hopes that some UK lockdown restrictions will be eased soon.

The FTSE 100 is now up 63 points or 1.1% at 5917, after the government confirmed that Boris Johnson will reveal his strategy on Sunday evening:

NEW: Boris Johnson will be giving a statement at 7pm on Sunday discussing the route out of the #COVID19 lockdown and the government's next steps.

With oil, mining and banking stocks all in the green, the FTSE added another 0.9% as the session went on, sticking its nose across 5900 for the first time in a week. This would suggest that investors have swallowed the bitter 14% contraction in 2020 pill offered up by the BoE, thanks to the spoonful of sugar that is the expectation of a 15% rebound in 2021.

Elsewhere the markets were just as perky, investors continuing to express their relief at the various ongoing and soon-to-be unveiled lockdown-easing measures around the globe. The DAX passed 10700 as it climbed 0.8%, while the CAC struck 4470 following a 50 point increase.

Our economic editor Larry Elliott says the BoE is pinning its hopes on a V-shaped recovery to GDP - and pushing banks to do their bit.

One of the key messages from the Bank to the high street lenders was that they stand to lose more by not lending than they will by lending freely, because there will be more long-term scarring of the economy, more companies going bust and more losses for them to swallow. At his press conference, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was ramming home this point to lenders at at every opportunity.

Forecasting is tough at the best of times: in the current circumstances – where there is uncertainty about how fast restrictions will be lifted, how consumers will behave, and whether there will be a second wave of infection – it is all but impossible.

All that can really be said is that the risks to the Bank’s scenario are skewed heavily to the downside. Threadneedle Street decided against providing more stimulus at this week’s meeting, but it is only a question of time.

Related: Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle

New: BoE governor Andrew Bailey tells me while it's unlikely, he doesn't rule out cutting UK interest rates into negative territory (unlike M Carney):
"Previous governors didn't have in mind this scenario we're in today. And I think it's wise not to rule anything off the table."

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has told Sky News that the slump in the UK economy this year is “unique, certainly in modern times”.

But he’s also optimistic that activity is likely to recover “much more quickly” than after a normal recession:

.@bankofengland Governor Andrew Bailey says despite the "unique" challenges of #coronavirus, he believes the lifting of the lockdown will see activity in the economy recover 'quicker than it would if was a normal recession.'

Read more here: https://t.co/xVqko9FY6J pic.twitter.com/heyAfBtIMQ

It’s been a busy morning for telecoms news too.

Cable operator Virgin Media and mobile network O2 are merging, to create a £31bn “national champion” to challenge BT and Sky in the UK.

Related: Virgin Media and O2 owners confirm £31bn mega-merger in UK

Related: BT suspends dividend to free up 5G and broadband investment

Here’s Anna Stewart of CNN on the Bank of England’s forecasts:

Bank of England says the economy will contract by 25% in the second quarter. Yes it’s bad.

However, it’s far better than OBR forecast of -35% a couple of weeks ago.

Plus take a look at the projected recovery... pic.twitter.com/PMlsLDAPXe

Sharp rise in unemployment - expected to hit 9% in Q2.

However, compare that to :
WH economist Kevin Hassett has warned of 20% unemployment in April

London’s Evening Standard points out that the Covid-19 slump will be three times as severe as after the financial crisis of 2008.

Today’s ⁦@EveningStandard⁩ on the plans to stagger the rush hour and the latest Bank Of England forecasts pic.twitter.com/A811vwVaTL

Covid-19 lockdowns has already pushed British Airway’s parent company into the red.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

British Airways owner International Airlines Group made a £1.5bn loss in the first three months of the year, as chief executive Willie Walsh said it would take three years for passenger demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

IAG has halted 94% of its flights in response to travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, causing it to bleed cash. Last week, British Airways set out plans to make up to 12,000 of its staff redundant because of the global collapse in air travel.

Related: British Airways owner reports £1.5bn loss due to coronavirus

Despite the Bank of England’s gloomy prognosis for this year, stocks and the pound are a little higher this morning.

That’s partly because the BoE expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, after a 14% contraction this year [although arithmetically that still leaves the economy smaller]

The Bank of England’s new governor, Andrew Bailey, has hinted that the BoE could expand its stimulus programme at its next meeting in June.

Bloomberg’s Jill Ward has the details:

Two of the BOE’s nine policy makers wanted to immediately increase bond purchases -- the main policy tool now that the key interest rate is near zero -- by 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) in a decision announced early Thursday. The rest agreed downside risks “might necessitate further monetary policy action.”

Bailey, who earlier pledged “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the economy during the coronavirus crisis, told reporters that the fact no action was taken this time doesn’t rule out a response soon.

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that policy makers could expand monetary stimulus as soon as next month as the U.K. faces an economic slump that could be the worst in Europe"https://t.co/iQK3nKt2ef pic.twitter.com/XMtpY5HHsH

Trade unions are urging the UK government not to make the economic downturn worse by turning off its furlough scheme too quickly.

The TUC says that today’s statistics showing that two-thirds of firms have tapped the Jobs Retention scheme shows it is vital.

Around half of the workforce are working from home, but varies drastically by industry.

A big majority of workers in the information and communication and professional sectors are working from home, whereas it's a small minority in other industries. pic.twitter.com/QDN3wcbIVk

Around a quarter (23%) of businesses have ceased or paused trading.

This rises to around 80% in the arts and accommodation and food sectors. pic.twitter.com/IsHQKI5wYF

UK banks have approved an additional 8,550 government-backed business loans worth £1.4bn within the past week, but are still struggling to increase the pace of approvals amid rising demand.

The original coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS) has now lent around £5.5bn to 33,812 small and medium sized businesses since the programme was launched on 23 March.

“Bank staff have worked tirelessly over the past week to provide businesses with the finance they need, delivering another £1.4 billion of lending under the CBIL scheme, on top of over £2 billion in Bounce Back Loans targeted at smaller firms and sole traders.”

Hat-tip to Ben Chu of the Independent, for showing just how grim the Bank of England’s forecasts are:

The Bank of of England's scenario for UK GDP for the full year of 2020 is...

-14%

That would be the worst year for the economy since 1706 according to the Bank's own historical dataset pic.twitter.com/aKflRovluH

We have estimates of quarterly UK GDP going back to 1920

The Bank's scenario has -25% in the second quarter of 2020.

That would be by far the worst seen: pic.twitter.com/7SH34zwqPW

The Treasury Committee chairman Mel Stride has ordered Barclays to explain why customers are still having trouble accessing bounce back loans - which are meant to protect UK businesses from this year’s slump.

The 100% government-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme is meant to get cash to struggling businesses far more quickly than other programmes. Any impediments put those firms at risk, Stride said:

“Issues that hamper this are very frustrating to customers and may in some cases threaten business survival.

“I raised the problems that some people were having in accessing the Barclays online system with their CEO during our public committee hearing on Monday and was assured then that the system was able to cope well.

Just in: nearly a quarter of UK firms have temporarily closed due to the pandemic, and two-thirds are furloughing some staff.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics. It just reported that 23% of businesses who responded to its latest survey said they had “temporarily closed or paused trading” last month.

The Bank of England has also shown how its scenario compare to City economists’ forecasts -- where the range is rather, er, broad:

Here's my fave chart from this morning's Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - it's the all-important "nobody knows" chart. pic.twitter.com/vsozkW5fC6

The key message from the Bank of England today is that activity in the UK has fallen sharply, and is going to continue to plunge during this quarter.

Explaining why it thinks the UK will shrink 14% this year, it says:

Official data are sparse at this stage, but high‑frequency indicators suggest that consumer spending has fallen steeply since March. In large part, that reflects the impact of both enforced and voluntary social distancing, with some additional drag from lower incomes and confidence about the outlook. In those areas most affected, such as tourism and eating out, indicators including aircraft departures and data on the number of seated diners at restaurants suggest that spending has all but come to a halt.

The closure of businesses and widespread moves to working from home have reduced the number of journeys by car and public transport substantially. In addition, spending on many durables is likely to have been delayed. One area that has proved stronger is spending on food, as households substitute spending at supermarkets for eating out. Nevertheless, consumer spending in aggregate has fallen very significantly. In 2020 Q2, it is expected to be almost 30% lower than in 2019 Q4.

There are also signs that UK house prices are starting to slide, amid the lockdown.

Halifax has reported that prices fell by 0.6% in April, on top of a 0.3% dip in March:

The #Halifax reported #UK #house #prices dipped 0.6% month-on-month in April after a revised fall of 0.3% in March. The annual rate of increase moderated to 2.7% in April from 3.0% in March and a peak of 4.1% in January (which had been the highest level since February 2018).

The Covid-19 crisis has prompted Norway’s central bank to slash its interest rates to zero.

In a surprise move, the Norges Banks just lowered its key borrowing rate from 0.25% to 0.0%, a record low.

Norges Bank now predicts the mainland economy, which excludes oil and gas output, will contract by 5.2% in 2020, down from a March 13 forecast of 0.4% growth. It expects growth of 3.0% in 2021, up from 1.3% seen earlier.

BREAKING: #Norway's central bank delivers surprise rate cut to 0% in a unanimous decision. Don't envisage making further rate cuts but outlook and balance of risks imply very expansionary monetary policy stance. #Norges

#Norway's central bank lowers its benchmark rate to 0.00%! pic.twitter.com/e0pLjZzaSR

My colleague Richard Partington writes that the Bank of England has sounded the alarm about the slump in the UK economy this year:

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 25% this spring and unemployment more than double as the coronavirus pandemic brings the country to an effective standstill.

Leaving interest rates on hold as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures used to contain its spread.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

The Resolution Foundation think tank is concerned that the Bank of England predicts such a sharp jump in unemployment, and only a slow recovery in the labour market:

That 14 per cent hit to the economy is equivalent to around £300 billion, or £9,000 for every family in Britain, and shows why the Bank and Government are right to have protected households as much as possible with policies such as the Job Retention Scheme.

While the Bank’s scenario implies the UK economy will return towards its pre-pandemic growth path in 2021, it projects unemployment to remain above its pre-pandemic path until at least 2023 – after reaching a 25-year high of 9 per cent this year.

Stark unemployment forecast from the Bank of England this morning, and expects 25% contraction in the economy in the quarter to June. pic.twitter.com/pHQZPwXHCN

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, fears the UK economy could shrink even more sharply than the Bank of England has forecast.

The Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year, when the UK-EU withdrawal agreement ends, creates added uncertainty, she writes:

“Despite the stark numbers issued by the Bank of England today, additional pressure on the economy is likely. Some social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus, with people also remaining reluctant to socialise and spend. That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.

“Looking at the medium term, beyond the impact of reduced investment, other forces could to be in play dampening future productivity. Supply chains are likely to be reconfigured in light of this crisis, potentially increasing geographical diversification and reducing efficiency in order to increase resilience. ‘Just in time’ operations are also likely to be a thing of the past, further eroding productivity. On the other hand, we could see significant consolidation among SMEs, lifting productivity among the long tail of underperforming businesses.

The only good news today is that the Bank expects this economic bombshell to be short-lived, and for the economy to bounce back rapidly. However, the MPC itself concedes it is flying blind to a large extent, warning that a pandemic like this is “especially difficult to quantify”.

“While the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy stance at today’s meeting, it is surely only a matter of time before they decide to. The 7-2 split on whether to increase asset purchases indicates a continued dovish bias from certain voting members.

With the Bank hoovering up gilts equivalent to those issued since the additional £200 billion in quantitative easing was announced, it will run out of firepower to support government spending within in months. Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Bank of England to delay its much-anticipated bank climate stress tests.

The central bank has concluded that UK banks have enough to deal with, without calculating how they are positioned to handle the climate emergency (a key concern for former governor Mark Carney).

“Recognizing current pressures on firms, and in light of the responses to the December 2019 Discussion Paper on the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario, the PRC and FPC have agreed to postpone the launch of the exercise until at least mid-2021.

This delay reflects a desire to maintain the ambitious scope of the exercise, whilst giving firms enough time to invest sufficiently in their capabilities to allow them to deliver to a high standard.”

The Bank’s new Financial Stability Report says UK households have entered the lockdown in a stronger position than before the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to substantial support including payment holidays on mortgages and credit cards.

However, the Bank warned that the sharp economic downturn would put pressure on personal finances and that it would have to keep a close eye on potential risks that may emerge once those payment holidays expire. That could include a fresh wave of customers attempting to refinance their debt.

There is some good news.... the Bank of England is confident that Britain’s banks can ride out the Covid-19 pandemic, and handle a 14% plunge in GDP this year.

It says the banking sector is sufficiently capitalised to cover losses during the outbreak, especially as the BoE is providing more support to the sector.

Businesses and households will need to borrow to get through this period. We want banks and building societies to expand lending. We have tested the major UK banks. They are strong enough to keep lending, which will support the economy and limit losses to themselves.

We are offering more long-term funding to banks that increase their lending.

Here’s a table outlining the Bank of England’s new Covid-19 scenario.

As you can see, it shows UK GDP shrinking 14% this year, business investment crumbling by 26%, household spending down 14%, and average earnings down 2%:

The Bank of England has produced a 20-minute video, explaining today’s monetary policy decisions and its new scenario for how the UK economy will shrink this year:

Reuters points out that the Bank of England is predicting the worst economic slump in centuries this year -- and a very strong recovery in 2021:

The Bank of England held off further stimulus measures but said it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus hammering which could cause the country’s biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 before a bounceback in 2021.

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at its all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at £645bn.

Bank of England gives a big "V" to economists who think there'll be a lasting hit from the COVID-19 slump.

Illustrative scenario shows 14% drop in GDP in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021 of... 15%! pic.twitter.com/Wf5Z4Rp9Ds

In another startling forecast, the Bank of England predicts that the global economy could contract by 20% this quarter.

It warns that the coronavirus pandemic, and the lockdown measures introduced to slow it, are hitting economic activity extremely hard:

The spread of the virus and the measures taken to protect public health have caused a substantial reduction in activity around the world. Survey indicators such as the output components of PMIs have fallen to record‑low levels since the start of the year, and suggest that many countries have experienced extremely sharp falls in activity.

Bank staff estimate that UK‑weighted world GDP declined by around 4% in Q1 and could fall by over 20% in Q2. World trade has also declined significantly, and is expected to contract by around twice as much as global GDP in 2020. While many major countries have introduced wage subsidy schemes to reduce job losses, unemployment has increased markedly around the world and many more employees are working less than usual.

Despite the government’s efforts, the Bank of England predicts that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months.

Its new Covid-19 scenario suggests the UK jobless rate could soon spike to 9% - up from 4% at present - even though the government is encouraging firms to furlough staff.

As activity has fallen, the number of people in work has dropped sharply. It is likely that the Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has materially reduced the number of redundancies. Early data suggest that applications for furlough have been received from 800,000 companies covering over six million jobs.

The number of people furloughed might be a little lower, though, as some could have more than one furloughed job. While the CJRS has significantly limited job losses, the flow of new Universal Credit benefit claims and early indicators of redundancies suggest that unemployment has risen sharply over the past couple of months. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9% in Q2.

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year.

It has drawn up a new scenario, showing how the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt growth.

The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world. Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.

The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently. Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly.

Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation is expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Some early breaking news: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at their record lows, at its policy meeting today.

The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April. Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.

Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased. According to the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, companies’ sales are expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower.

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Nippon India ETF Hang Seng BeES

Category Other Scheme - Other ETFs
NAV 298.0918
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Face masks for the deaf: Covid 19's communication challenge for the hearing impaired

How to lip read when everyone’s face is hidden behind a mask? That is the challenge facing deaf people across the world as the Covid-19 pandemic makes face masks a part of daily life. The answer could be transparent face masks but such masks are in short supply, leading some to make their own.




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Y’all Engineers Can’t Pimp My Meme Swag

My meme swagger is unstoppable. The ladies want my penis, and the engineers can't handle my drip.




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The Choice Engine

A project I’ve been working on a for a long time has just launched: The Choice Engine is an interactive essay about the psychology, neuroscience and philosophy of free will. To begin, follow and reply START — ChoiceEngine (@ChoiceEngine) September 20, 2018 By talking to the @ChoiceEngine twitter-bot you can navigate an essay about choice, … Continue reading "The Choice Engine"










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Scandal Engulfs Independent Publisher ChiZine Publications


Posted by Victoria Strauss for Writer Beware®

If you're not part of the horror or speculative fiction community, you may not be aware of the scandal that over the past two weeks has engulfed ChiZine Publications, a (previously) highly-regarded Canadian independent publisher.

In September of last year, several authors, including Ed Kurtz, made a complaint to the Horror Writers Association about long-overdue royalties at ChiZine. On November 5 of this year, after the complaint became public knowledge, CZP posted a statement on its Facebook page, claiming that Kurtz's royalties were "currently paid in full" and that "Any other monies he might be due will be paid on his next royalty statement". Kurtz's response, posted by his partner on Facebook a day later, was blistering:
The statement from Chizine neglects a number of salient facts, such as the moment in July 2018, at Necon, when I explained to Brett Savory that my partner was facing a layoff, our cat was ill, we were in severe financial distress, and I had *never* been paid a single cent of royalties in what was at that time almost two years for a moderately successful book. He actually grinned and said, "Things are hard for everyone right now" before walking away. The following morning it was reported to me that Sandra was loudly complaining in the dealer room about me having asked about my royalties, and of course the two of them went on a whirlwind trip around the world a few weeks after that, showing us all that things weren't so rough for them, after all.

In fact, I'd asked after my royalties several times and was rebuffed or given excuses every single time (usually something wrong with their accounting software or something similar, which I later learned they’d been saying to authors for years). I only went to the HWA after several other frustrated CZP authors (one of whom hadn't been paid in five years!) strongly encouraged me to do so. I expressed fear of bullying and/or retaliation, and some of these authors promised me they'd have my back (they didn't). And yes, a lot of us got paid through my efforts, though it is untrue I'm paid in full. I was never paid royalties for the months of my first year of publication, 2016, though CZP continues to claim I was. I just gave up on this.
Kurtz's experience was not isolated.

******

Between 2010 and 2015, Writer Beware received a handful of complaints (fewer than five) about ChiZine from authors who cited months-late royalty payments or long waits for contracts. Because the complaints were so few, and also because the authors all did eventually receive their payments or their contracts (though in most cases only after persistent prodding), it wasn't clear to me whether the tardiness indicated a pattern of problems, or was the kind of occasional glitch that can afflict otherwise reputable small presses with small staff and tight finances.

As it turns out, those few complaints were just the tiniest bubbles drifting up from what appears to be a roiling ocean of dysfunction.

Following Kurtz's public response, CZP authors and staff began to come forward with their own experiences--a tsunami of serious allegations including non-payment (some staff say they were never paid for years of work), extremely late or missing royalty payments (years in arrears in some cases; many authors report having to fight for what payment was received), erratically-produced royalty statements (CZP breached at least some of its own contracts by sending out royalties once a year instead of bi-annually--more on that below), missed pub dates, broken marketing promises, and financial mismanagement--especially concerning, since a big chunk of CZP's budget comes from grants and subsidies. (Former CZP staff member Michael Matheson has written a pair of illuminating posts on CZP's finances, including its treatment of grant money and habitual financial distress.)

Staff and authors also--in multiple, strikingly similar posts and complaints, including some received by Writer Beware--cite a toxic work culture that featured bullying, intimidation, sexual harassment, racism, gaslighting, and more. Several of those who contacted me told me that they felt CZP operated "like a cult," with charismatic leaders at the top who were admired and feared in equal measure, and whom many dared not defy.

This account only scratches the surface. For much more:
On November 11, CZP's founders, Sandra Kasturi and Brett Savory, posted a statement on the CZP blog and Facebook page indicating that they have decided to "step down." Although the statement mentions financial issues ("we have taken a short-term personal loan to bring payments up to date"), it doesn't address the many other complaints that have been leveled against the company--and, notably, does not include an apology.

The response has not been kind.

******

Despite all of the above, there are still those who continue to defend CZP, and to brush off the statements by writers and staff. For example, this, from editor Stephen Jones (Jones's post has been removed; this is a screenshot posted to Twitter):

What stands out for me here is not just the skepticism that whistleblowers always have to face (and which, even when the publisher doesn't try to intimidate or engage in reprisals, makes it so much harder for whistleblowers to come forward), but the defense of unprofessional business practice--not just by CZP but, apparently, by small press publishers in general. Small presses are doing something great for writers and readers, so we should "cut them some slack" when they fail to pay, or don't fill book orders, or miss a pub date, or engage in some other kind of behavior that has a negative impact on staff and authors. That's "simply the nature of small press publishing." Deal with it!

It's a really common argument. I can't tell you how often I've seen some version of it--not just from toxic or troubled publishers, but from the writers they are screwing over. But it is bullshit. Complete and utter bullshit.

No matter how "worthy" a publisher may be, that does not give it the right to abuse its writers or its staff--whether by accident or design. Publishers function in the realm of art, but they also need to function like businesses--not like cults of personality, not like sinecures, not like kitchen-table hobby projects where it doesn't really matter that they know little about publishing and have never run a business as long as they've got good intentions. You don't get a pass because you've got a noble goal. You don't get a pass because independent publishers are struggling and we need more of them. You don't even get a pass because you're putting out good books from disenfranchised authors. You need to run your business right, and treat your writers and your staff right, or you have no business calling yourself a publisher.

Which brings me to my next point. The scope and range of what has apparently been happening at ChiZine is bigger than usual (and having seen as many small press implosions as I have over the years, it's amazing to me that it took so long for the scandal to break). But it's important to emphasize that it is not an isolated occurrence. Contract breaches, financial malfeasance, even the kind of harassment and gaslighting and dictatorial behavior that CZP authors and staff describe--all are rampant in the small press world. Just go back through a few years of the entries on this blog, and you'll see plenty of examples.

I don't mean to tar all small presses with the same brush. There are, it's important to acknowledge, many small and indie publishers that operate with complete professionalism and do all they can to treat their authors right. But there is a huge, huge problem in the small press segment of the publishing industry, and we don't do writers--or readers--any favors in dismissing or downplaying or making excuses for it.

I'm not the only one who is making this point. Silvia Moreno-Garcia, who had payment issues with CZP and also has experience running a micro-press, addresses the issue in a Twitter thread:


In a blog post, former CZP staffer Michael Matheson responds to those who would like to see publishers like CZP dealt with more kindly:

And, commenting on the Chizine situation, writer and reviewer Gabino Iglesias points out:


I agree 100%. But I'm not holding my breath.

******

The scandal has unfolded very quickly but there've already been consequences. High Fever Books reports "a mass exodus" from CZP, with authors requesting rights reversions for their books, and withdrawing stories from CZP's forthcoming Christmas anthology. The Ontario Arts Council, one of CZP's funders, has recently removed CZP from its list of grant recommenders. And SFWA has issued a statement:


******

Finally, some semi-wonky publishing stuff.

There's been some discussion of irregularities with CZP's royalty statements. I've seen a number of these, kindly shared with me by CZP authors, and while they're somewhat of a chore to figure out and are missing some information that ideally should be present, the numbers do add up. However, a few things are sub-optimal.

- CZP's contract boilerplate empowers the publisher to set a "reasonable" reserve against returns. There are no specifics, so it's basically up to the publisher to decide what "reasonable" is.

For CZP, "reasonable" seems to mean 50%. This seemed high to me, so I did a mini-canvass of literary agents on Twitter. Most agreed that smaller is better--maybe 25-30%, though some felt that 50% was justifiable depending on the circumstances. They also pointed out that the reserve percentage should fall in subsequent reporting periods (CZP's remains at 50%, unless boilerplate has been negotiated otherwise), and that publishers should not hold reserves beyond two or three years, or four or five accounting periods (CZP has held reserves for some authors for much longer).

(If you're unclear on what a reserve against returns is, here's an explanation.)

- Per CZP's contract, royalties are paid "by the first royalty period falling one year after publication." What this means in practice (based on the royalty statements I saw) is that if your pub date is (hypothetically) April of 2016, you are not eligible for payment until the first royalty period that follows your one-year anniversary--which, since CZP pays royalties just once a year on a January-December schedule, would be the royalty period ending December 2017. Since publishers often take months to issue royalty statements and payments following the end of a royalty period, you'd get no royalty check until sometime in 2018--close to, or possibly more than, two full years after publication.

In effect, CZP is setting a 100% reserve against returns for at least a year following publication, and often much more. This gives it the use of the author's money for far too long, not to mention a financial cushion that lets it write smaller checks, since it doesn't have to pay anything out until after returns have come in (most sales and most returns occur during the first year of release).

I shouldn't need to say that this is non-standard. It's also, in my opinion, seriously exploitative.

- And...about that annual payment. It too is non-standard--even the big houses pay twice a year, and most small publishers pay quarterly or even more often. It's also extra-contractual--at least for the contracts I saw. According to CZP's boilerplate, payments are supposed to be bi-annual after that initial year-or-more embargo. The switch to annual payment appears to have been a unilateral decision by CZP owners for logistical and cost reasons, actual contract language be damned (I've seen documentation of this).

- A final wonky contract point: CZP's contract boilerplate mentions royalty payments (as in, they're bi-annual)--but does not, anywhere, mention royalty statements.

A publishing contract absolutely needs to bind a publisher not just to pay, but to account royalties on a regular basis (whether or not payments are due). If there's no contractual obligation for the publisher to provide royalty accounting, it may decline to do so--and that's not theoretical, I've gotten more than a few complaints about exactly this. Just one more reason to get knowledgeable advice on any publishing contract you're thinking of signing.




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Join our virtual 5k “Walk Middle-earth Challenge” and get some exercise!

TheOneRing.net is hosting a series of four VIRTUAL 5K RACES in May. Each race will reflect a leg of the Fellowship’s journey through Middle-earth (though not in actual miles, of course). A new race will be posted on the first four Fridays in May. The 5k races (3.1 miles) can be run or walked at […]




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Biting passengers on flight is no reason for cash compensation delay: EU court adviser

Air travelers cannot receive cash compensation if their flight is delayed by a passenger biting others and assaulting crew members, an adviser at the Court of Justice of the European Union said on Thursday.




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From chickpeas to savoury porridge: Yotam Ottolenghi's thrifty recipes

A weekday lunch of braised chickpeas, a savoury brunch porridge and a grown-up take on rice pudding

The world has seen more than its fair share of closed doors lately – shops, restaurants, the barber, your neighbours’ – but that has, in turn, led to the opening of some others.

And if there is one door that has swung wide open in recent weeks, it’s the one that leads into the kitchen. From the keenest of cooks to the humblest of beginners, the kitchen has provided us all with the one thing we’ve been missing the most: freedom.

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Public health directors in England are asked to take charge of Covid-19 testing

Care minister’s request is admission that centralised programmes have fallen short

  • Coronavirus – latest updates
  • See all our coronavirus coverage
  • Ministers have asked local directors of public health to take charge of Covid-19 testing in English care homes in what will be seen as a tacit admission that centralised attempts to run the programme have fallen short.

    In a letter to sector leaders, seen by the Guardian, the care minister, Helen Whately, acknowledged that testing of care home residents and staff needs to be “more joined up”. She describes the new arrangements as “a significant change”.

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    'People's lives depend on it': the sacked English defender left in limbo | Sid Lowe

    Charlie I’Anson’s contract in the third tier has been terminated but the lockdown has left him unable to travel

    Charlie I’Anson spent Thursday packing up boxes in the small flat he rents near Madrid, finalising the details of his dismissal from the football club for whom he played, and trying to contact the police to request permission to travel home. The night before, the news slipped out: two months after the last match, and on the day the first and second division players returned to work, the football federation decided to cancel the rest of the season in Spain’s third and fourth tiers. Like thousands of footballers, the English centre-back’s season was over with 10 matches remaining.

    Related: Covid-19's impact on football: 'It could take 10 years to get where we were'

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    Voice Actor: Bakugan: Armored Alliance Anime's English Dub Continues Production

    Out-of-studio recordings continue from cast, crew's homes