decision

CBD Notification SCBD/IMS/JMF/NP/YX/88707 (2020-021): Decision 14/23, Financial Mechanism: Assessment of Funding Needs for the Implementation of the Convention and its Protocols for the Eighth Replenishment Period (July 2022 to June 2026) of the Trust Fun




decision

How to Make Sound Decisions with Limited Data During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Thursday, April 2, 2020 - 13:00

Coronavirus presents an unprecedented predicament: Everyday, leaders must make momentous decisions with life or death consequences for many—but there is a dearth of data. Oded Netzer is a Columbia Business School professor and Data Science Institute affiliate who builds statistical and econometric models to measure consumer behavior that help business leaders make data-driven decisions. Here, he discusses how leaders from all fields can make sound decisions with scarce data to guide them.




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Lockdown Losses: Lack of Government Transparency during COVID-19 Pandemic Holds Back Businesses from Taking Risks, Making Financial Decisions

Thursday, April 30, 2020 - 14:15

NEW YORK – Since the coronavirus outbreak began, states across the U.S. have implemented stay-at-home orders, disrupting businesses and causing many to shut down. In addition, almost half of U.S. states from New York to Oregon have extended their lockdown orders beyond the original end date. These extensions of lockdown policy, while clearly beneficial to address public health concerns, can damage the economy beyond their immediate impact on business closures and layoffs.




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Which COVID-19 models should we use to make policy decisions?

(Penn State) A new process to harness multiple disease models for outbreak management has been developed by an international team of researchers. The team will immediately implement the process to help inform policy decisions for the COVID-19 outbreak.




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What the ICJ Decision on Myanmar Means

24 January 2020

Dr Champa Patel

Director, Asia-Pacific Programme
Champa Patel on the implications of the International Court of Justice’s decision to order protection for the Rohingya.

2020-01-24-CB.jpg

Rohingya refugees watch ICJ proceedings at a restaurant in a refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh in December. Photo: Getty Images.

The decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that Myanmar should take all measures available to prevent acts of genocide against the persecuted Rohingya minority is truly ground-breaking. The case shows how small states can play an important role in upholding international law and holding other states accountable. 

The Gambia, acting with the support of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, skilfully used Article IX of the Genocide Convention, which allows for a state party to the convention to pursue cases against another state party where it is felt there has been a dispute regarding the ‘interpretation, application or fulfilment’ of the convention.

Seventeen states have entered reservations against this specific provision but Myanmar is not one of them. It was on this basis that The Gambia was able to take its case to the ICJ. This exciting development expands the possibilities of international accountability at the state-to-state level.

But it should be noted that the current ruling is focused on provisional measures – the central case could still take years to conclude. There is still a long road ahead on the court determining whether the Myanmar authorities committed acts of genocide.

And, while the decision was unanimous and binding, the ICJ cannot enforce its ruling. Myanmar has shown itself resistant to international criticism and there is a real risk they will fail to comply.

One way forward, should Myanmar not respect the ruling, is that the UN Security Council could agree a resolution to compel action. However, it seems unlikely that China would ever vote for such a resolution, given its strong stance on non-intervention and its economic interests in the country. 




decision

Britain Walks Post-Brexit Tightrope With Huawei Decision

4 February 2020

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs; Director, US and the Americas Programme
The UK government seems to have balanced competing interests of the economy, national security and relations with America. But the full US response remains to be seen.

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Mike Pompeo meets Boris Johnson in London on 30 January. Photo: Getty Images.

In the face of multiple competing pressures, most especially intense pressure by the US president and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the UK government has carved out an independent choice on the role that Huawei will play in its 5G mobile networks. Announced just days before the UK exited the European Union, a move designed to allow the UK to reclaim its sovereignty, this was a model example of a sovereign decision, but one that carries risk and will create ongoing uncertainty.

The government’s assessment is that this will bolster Britain’s economic competitiveness through a rapid rollout of its 5G mobile network while staving off pressure from the United States and economic retaliation from China.

Britain’s decision treads a cautious line. The effort to balance the drive for competitiveness, the imperatives of national security and, especially, to appease while not appearing to appease America, has meant that the UK faces multiple pressures just as it seeks to forge an independent political future. So far, the UK government has handled these pressures artfully.

After months of intense scrutiny that at times looked like prevarication, and at other times looked a lot more contentious, the UK has decided to restrict Huawei’s access to a maximum of 35% of the market share of what it argues is the non-core part of its 5G mobile networks, and to enforce a total ban on Huawei’s access to the core.  

But no one should rest easy with the current choice. The UK has been divided internally on this decision, even among those on its National Security Council who have had privileged access to the intelligence offered by GCHQ. As the UK’s decision loomed, Tom Tugendhat, chair of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, cited Huawei’s connection to China’s intelligence services and its police state in Xinjiang and asked ‘is the risk worth it?’.

This division created latitude for the Johnson government to stake out its own position. But it also suggests that when it comes to national security, the case is not clear.  

The US response is more puzzling. Donald Trump and Pompeo have been coming down hard on the UK. But in the lead up to the UK’s decision, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin struck a much more nuanced tone, at least on the public record.

Despite weeks of pressure by Trump and Pompeo leading up to the announcement, the UK’s Huawei decision has so far failed to make headlines in the US, or garner much of an official response.

In an oped published in the Financial Times just days after the UK’s decision, acting US Assistant Secretary of Defense David Helvey took a strong line on China, calling for transatlantic unity and stressing the comprehensive nature of the competition that China presents. But he refrained from any specific mention of the UK’s announced decision. 

Given the previous US threat that allowing Huawei access would compromise future US–UK intelligence sharing and undermine the prospect for a free trade deal, this relatively muted response is surprising. Few among US national security experts have diverged from the view that Huawei presents a singular threat to national security.

This suggests one of two things: either that, even among those in the US who agree about the threat that Huawei presents for national security, opinion differs on how to deal with this threat; or, that America has conceded to the UK’s choice, even if it is a different position to its own.

What comes next is less certain. Now that Boris Johnson’s decision has been announced, the US has good reason to lay low. Restricting US–UK intelligence is a hollow threat: the US is a major beneficiary of this relationship and any attempt to unravel it would be costly for both parties.

The same is true of a future US–UK free trade deal, from which the US will most certainly reap substantial benefits, politically as well as economically.

The risk for the United States, of course, is that if it does not follow through, future threats to retaliate against the UK’s sovereign choices will become increasingly meaningless. And President Trump is not just any president. The current quiet could quickly be reversed if he sees a reason to make an example of the UK to signal to other countries currently debating their position on Huawei that proceeding will carry significant penalties.

The question remains whether in forging ahead, but with elements of caution, Britain has made the right decision. If the measure of success is political independence befitting the moment of Britain’s historic exit from the European Union, then the answer would appear to be yes. National security is an entirely different matter, and on this the debate is not over.




decision

The UK's Decision to Leave the EU: What Next for UK Energy and Climate?

Invitation Only Research Event

12 July 2016 - 3:00pm to 6:30pm

Chatham House, London

In May 2016, Chatham House published a research paper that assessed the options for the UK’s climate and energy policy in the event of a British vote to leave the EU. It determined that:

  • The UK’s energy market is deeply integrated with that of its European neighbours and that it would be neither possible nor desirable to ‘unplug’ the UK from Europe’s energy networks. A degree of continued adherence to EU market regulations, energy efficiency standards of appliances, environmental and governance rules would be inevitable. 
  • The EU’s collective negotiation on international climate issues has given the UK greater political weight than any member state has alone.
  • The EU’s coordinated approach in engaging with major fossil fuel producers such as Russia and countries in the Middle East has helped support price stability and security of supply, including through infrastructure investment to make existing pipeline systems more efficient and improve storage and capacity.   

In light of the decision to leave, Chatham House is hosting a roundtable to reassess the options for a future UK-EU energy and climate change partnership. The meeting will bring together those experienced on UK and EU policy in both climate change and energy and explore the short and medium-term climate and energy policy considerations. 

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Owen Grafham

Manager, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
+44 (0)20 7957 5708




decision

Harriott urges caution with RSPL decision

Portmore United captain Rosario Harriott says the Premier League Clubs Association shouldn’t rush to call off this season of the Red Stripe Premier League (RSPL) because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The league was stopped indefinitely in mid-March...




decision

The magic of shared decision making

Adoption of shared decision making into routine practice has been remarkably slow, despite 40 years of research and considerable policy support. In 2010, the Health Foundation in the UK commissioned the MAGIC (Making Good Decisions in Collaboration) programme to design, test, and identify the best ways to embed shared decision making into...




decision

Three talks to good decision making

The Three Talk Model of shared decision is a framework to help clinicians to think about how to structure their consultation to ensure that shared decision making can most usefully take place. The model is based around 3 concepts - option talk, decision talk, and team talk - with active listening at the centre. Three Talk was first proposed in...




decision

Bell facing tough decisions for OF alignment

Reds manager David Bell has great corner outfield depth, but he doesn't have a regular center fielder. Determining who will get to play where and sorting out the log jam should be a challenge for Bell in his first season as a skipper in the big leagues.




decision

As Lesvos Battles Migration Crisis Fatigue, the Value of Centralized Migration Decision-Making Is Questioned

As Greece's Aegean islands continue to grapple with migrants arriving on their shores, decisions regarding the needs of newcomers are negotiated in Brussels and Athens, far removed from the situation on the ground. Meanwhile, local communities have had successes in hosting migrants, as this article drawing on observations from the hospitality center and refugee camp on Lesvos explores.




decision

The decision to specialize

The question surfaces at the beginning of dental school, maybe even sooner, when the dream first takes hold. What kind of dentist do I want to be? Do I want to be a general dentist? An oral surgeon? A pediatric dentist? Every student’s path to becoming a dentist is unique. Choosing whether to specialize is no different.




decision

All Eyes Turn to Congress, Following Trump Decision to Terminate DACA Program

By winding down DACA over six months, President Trump may have addressed a short-term political dilemma. But this action ensures debate will rage on in search of a lasting solution, as many in Congress and beyond recognize the loss of work authorization and deportation relief will affect not only DACA recipients and their families, but also employers, universities, and communities alike, as this commentary explores.




decision

Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM), Barcelona, June 16-18, 2020

SAVE THE DATE ESADE Business School will host the 2020 Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM) conference, in Barcelona, Spain. Dates: Tuesday June 16th – Thursday June 18th, 2020. More information coming, September of 2019. Faculty Organizers Uri Simonsohn (ESADE) Isabelle Engeler (IESE) Jordi Quoidbach (ESADE) Bart de Langhe (ESADE) Johannes Müller-Trede (IESE) Ioannis Evangelidis […]

The post Behavioral Decision Research and Management (BDRM), Barcelona, June 16-18, 2020 appeared first on Decision Science News.




decision

Professorship in decision making at Wharton, Operations, Information and Decisions (OID), University of Pennsylvania

APPLICATION DEADLINE OCTOBER 15, 2019 The Operations, Information and Decisions Department at the Wharton School is seeking applicants for a full-time, tenure track, Assistant Professor faculty position in the area of decision-making. Our decision-making faculty is comprised of scholars with a diverse set of backgrounds and interests, and we encourage applicants with degrees in economics, […]

The post Professorship in decision making at Wharton, Operations, Information and Decisions (OID), University of Pennsylvania appeared first on Decision Science News.




decision

Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN), Philadelphia, June 5-6, 2020

DEADLINE FOR ORAL PRESENTATIONS: FEB 15, 2020 On June 5-6 2020, Temple University will host the 10th Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN) in Philadelphia, PA. This symposium is unique in that it brings together a range of constituencies involved in the use of neuroscience techniques to understand consumer decision making – world renowned […]

The post Annual Interdisciplinary Symposium on Decision Neuroscience (ISDN), Philadelphia, June 5-6, 2020 appeared first on Decision Science News.




decision

Decision on NJ schools likely on Thursday, Murphy says




decision

Patchwork decisions throw wrinkle in college football plans

There are 130 major college football teams, spread across 41 states and competing in 10 conferences, save for a handful of independents. The goal is to have all those teams start the upcoming season at the same time - whether that's around Labor Day as scheduled or later - and play the same number of games. Despite the best intentions of conference leaders, the possibility exists of college football being played in SEC country before it begins in Pac-12 territory - or something else entirely.




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South Australian Civil and Administrative Tribunal significant decisions / presented by the Hon. Justice Greg Parker PSM.




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Confiscation of assets : forfeiture, foreclosure and forlorn : a review of recent decisions under the Criminal Assets Confiscation Act 2005 (SA) / presented by His Honour Judge Tilmouth, District Court of South Australia.




decision

Recent Disciplinary Decisions and Trends.




decision

Recent Disciplinary Decisions and Trends.




decision

Forum 2019 : 8C Are regular casual employees entitled to paid annual leave? : the implications of the Federal Court's decision in WorkPac Pty Ltd v Skene / slides presented by John Love, EMA Legal.




decision

Penguins may face ‘tough decisions’ with goalies thanks to salary cap crunch

Could they lose one or more of Murray, Jarry, and DeSmith?




decision

Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies: A decision-theoretic overview

A. Philip Dawid, Vanessa Didelez

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 4, 184--231.

Abstract:
We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins’s ‘ G -computation’ algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective. Careful attention is paid to the mathematical and substantive conditions required to justify the use of this formula. These conditions revolve around a property we term stability , which relates the probabilistic behaviours of observational and interventional regimes. We show how an assumption of ‘sequential randomization’ (or ‘no unmeasured confounders’), or an alternative assumption of ‘sequential irrelevance’, can be used to infer stability. Probabilistic influence diagrams are used to simplify manipulations, and their power and limitations are discussed. We compare our approach with alternative formulations based on causal DAGs or potential response models. We aim to show that formulating the problem of assessing dynamic treatment strategies as a problem of decision analysis brings clarity, simplicity and generality.

References:
Arjas, E. and Parner, J. (2004). Causal reasoning from longitudinal data. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 31 171–187.

Arjas, E. and Saarela, O. (2010). Optimal dynamic regimes: Presenting a case for predictive inference. The International Journal of Biostatistics 6. http://tinyurl.com/33dfssf

Cowell, R. G., Dawid, A. P., Lauritzen, S. L. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1999). Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems. Springer, New York.

Dawid, A. P. (1979). Conditional independence in statistical theory (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 41 1–31.

Dawid, A. P. (1992). Applications of a general propagation algorithm for probabilistic expert systems. Statistics and Computing 2 25–36.

Dawid, A. P. (1998). Conditional independence. In Encyclopedia of Statistical Science ({U}pdate Volume 2) ( S. Kotz, C. B. Read and D. L. Banks, eds.) 146–155. Wiley-Interscience, New York.

Dawid, A. P. (2000). Causal inference without counterfactuals (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 95 407–448.

Dawid, A. P. (2001). Separoids: A mathematical framework for conditional independence and irrelevance. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 32 335–372.

Dawid, A. P. (2002). Influence diagrams for causal modelling and inference. International Statistical Review 70 161–189. Corrigenda, ibid ., 437.

Dawid, A. P. (2003). Causal inference using influence diagrams: The problem of partial compliance (with Discussion). In Highly Structured Stochastic Systems ( P. J. Green, N. L. Hjort and S. Richardson, eds.) 45–81. Oxford University Press.

Dawid, A. P. (2010). Beware of the DAG! In Proceedings of the NIPS 2008 Workshop on Causality. Journal of Machine Learning Research Workshop and Conference Proceedings ( D. Janzing, I. Guyon and B. Schölkopf, eds.) 6 59–86. http://tinyurl.com/33va7tm

Dawid, A. P. and Didelez, V. (2008). Identifying optimal sequential decisions. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-08) ( D. McAllester and A. Nicholson, eds.). 113-120. AUAI Press, Corvallis, Oregon. http://tinyurl.com/3899qpp

Dechter, R. (2003). Constraint Processing. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.

Didelez, V., Dawid, A. P. and Geneletti, S. G. (2006). Direct and indirect effects of sequential treatments. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-06) ( R. Dechter and T. Richardson, eds.). 138-146. AUAI Press, Arlington, Virginia. http://tinyurl.com/32w3f4e

Didelez, V., Kreiner, S. and Keiding, N. (2010). Graphical models for inference under outcome dependent sampling. Statistical Science (to appear).

Didelez, V. and Sheehan, N. S. (2007). Mendelian randomisation: Why epidemiology needs a formal language for causality. In Causality and Probability in the Sciences, ( F. Russo and J. Williamson, eds.). Texts in Philosophy Series 5 263–292. College Publications, London.

Eichler, M. and Didelez, V. (2010). Granger-causality and the effect of interventions in time series. Lifetime Data Analysis 16 3–32.

Ferguson, T. S. (1967). Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach. Academic Press, New York, London.

Geneletti, S. G. (2007). Identifying direct and indirect effects in a non–counterfactual framework. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 69 199–215.

Geneletti, S. G. and Dawid, A. P. (2010). Defining and identifying the effect of treatment on the treated. In Causality in the Sciences ( P. M. Illari, F. Russo and J. Williamson, eds.) Oxford University Press (to appear).

Gill, R. D. and Robins, J. M. (2001). Causal inference for complex longitudinal data: The continuous case. Annals of Statistics 29 1785–1811.

Guo, H. and Dawid, A. P. (2010). Sufficient covariates and linear propensity analysis. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, (AISTATS) 2010, Chia Laguna, Sardinia, Italy, May 13-15, 2010. Journal of Machine Learning Research Workshop and Conference Proceedings ( Y. W. Teh and D. M. Titterington, eds.) 9 281–288. http://tinyurl.com/33lmuj7

Henderson, R., Ansel, P. and Alshibani, D. (2010). Regret-regression for optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Biometrics (to appear). doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2009.01368.x

Hernán, M. A. and Taubman, S. L. (2008). Does obesity shorten life? The importance of well defined interventions to answer causal questions. International Journal of Obesity 32 S8–S14.

Holland, P. W. (1986). Statistics and causal inference (with Discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 81 945–970.

Huang, Y. and Valtorta, M. (2006). Identifiability in causal Bayesian networks: A sound and complete algorithm. In AAAI’06: Proceedings of the 21st National Conference on Artificial Intelligence 1149–1154. AAAI Press.

Kang, J. D. Y. and Schafer, J. L. (2007). Demystifying double robustness: A comparison of alternative strategies for estimating a population mean from incomplete data. Statistical Science 22 523–539.

Lauritzen, S. L., Dawid, A. P., Larsen, B. N. and Leimer, H. G. (1990). Independence properties of directed Markov fields. Networks 20 491–505.

Lok, J., Gill, R., van der Vaart, A. and Robins, J. (2004). Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-event using structural nested failure time models. Statistica Neerlandica 58 271–295.

Moodie, E. M., Richardson, T. S. and Stephens, D. A. (2007). Demystifying optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Biometrics 63 447–455.

Murphy, S. A. (2003). Optimal dynamic treatment regimes (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 65 331-366.

Oliver, R. M. and Smith, J. Q., eds. (1990). Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, United Kingdom.

Pearl, J. (1995). Causal diagrams for empirical research (with Discussion). Biometrika 82 669-710.

Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference, Second ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Pearl, J. and Paz, A. (1987). Graphoids: A graph-based logic for reasoning about relevance relations. In Advances in Artificial Intelligence ( D. Hogg and L. Steels, eds.) II 357–363. North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Pearl, J. and Robins, J. (1995). Probabilistic evaluation of sequential plans from causal models with hidden variables. In Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence ( P. Besnard and S. Hanks, eds.) 444–453. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco.

Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision Analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts.

Robins, J. M. (1986). A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods—Application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Mathematical Modelling 7 1393–1512.

Robins, J. M. (1987). Addendum to “A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with sustained exposure periods—Application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect”. Computers & Mathematics with Applications 14 923–945.

Robins, J. M. (1989). The analysis of randomized and nonrandomized AIDS treatment trials using a new approach to causal inference in longitudinal studies. In Health Service Research Methodology: A Focus on AIDS ( L. Sechrest, H. Freeman and A. Mulley, eds.) 113–159. NCSHR, U.S. Public Health Service.

Robins, J. M. (1992). Estimation of the time-dependent accelerated failure time model in the presence of confounding factors. Biometrika 79 321–324.

Robins, J. M. (1997). Causal inference from complex longitudinal data. In Latent Variable Modeling and Applications to Causality, ( M. Berkane, ed.). Lecture Notes in Statistics 120 69–117. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Robins, J. M. (1998). Structural nested failure time models. In Survival Analysis, ( P. K. Andersen and N. Keiding, eds.). Encyclopedia of Biostatistics 6 4372–4389. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK.

Robins, J. M. (2000). Robust estimation in sequentially ignorable missing data and causal inference models. In Proceedings of the American Statistical Association Section on Bayesian Statistical Science 1999 6–10.

Robins, J. M. (2004). Optimal structural nested models for optimal sequential decisions. In Proceedings of the Second Seattle Symposium on Biostatistics ( D. Y. Lin and P. Heagerty, eds.) 189–326. Springer, New York.

Robins, J. M., Greenland, S. and Hu, F. C. (1999). Estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying exposure on the marginal mean of a repeated binary outcome. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94 687–700.

Robins, J. M., Hernán, M. A. and Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology 11 550–560.

Robins, J. M. and Wasserman, L. A. (1997). Estimation of effects of sequential treatments by reparameterizing directed acyclic graphs. In Proceedings of the 13th Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence ( D. Geiger and P. Shenoy, eds.) 409-420. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, San Francisco. http://tinyurl.com/33ghsas

Rosthøj, S., Fullwood, C., Henderson, R. and Stewart, S. (2006). Estimation of optimal dynamic anticoagulation regimes from observational data: A regret-based approach. Statistics in Medicine 25 4197–4215.

Shpitser, I. and Pearl, J. (2006a). Identification of conditional interventional distributions. In Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-06) ( R. Dechter and T. Richardson, eds.). 437–444. AUAI Press, Corvallis, Oregon. http://tinyurl.com/2um8w47

Shpitser, I. and Pearl, J. (2006b). Identification of joint interventional distributions in recursive semi-Markovian causal models. In Proceedings of the Twenty-First National Conference on Artificial Intelligence 1219–1226. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, California.

Spirtes, P., Glymour, C. and Scheines, R. (2000). Causation, Prediction and Search, Second ed. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Sterne, J. A. C., May, M., Costagliola, D., de Wolf, F., Phillips, A. N., Harris, R., Funk, M. J., Geskus, R. B., Gill, J., Dabis, F., Miro, J. M., Justice, A. C., Ledergerber, B., Fatkenheuer, G., Hogg, R. S., D’Arminio-Monforte, A., Saag, M., Smith, C., Staszewski, S., Egger, M., Cole, S. R. and When To Start Consortium (2009). Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-Free HIV-1-infected patients: A collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies. Lancet 373 1352–1363.

Taubman, S. L., Robins, J. M., Mittleman, M. A. and Hernán, M. A. (2009). Intervening on risk factors for coronary heart disease: An application of the parametric g-formula. International Journal of Epidemiology 38 1599–1611.

Tian, J. (2008). Identifying dynamic sequential plans. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-08) ( D. McAllester and A. Nicholson, eds.). 554–561. AUAI Press, Corvallis, Oregon. http://tinyurl.com/36ufx2h

Verma, T. and Pearl, J. (1990). Causal networks: Semantics and expressiveness. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 4 ( R. D. Shachter, T. S. Levitt, L. N. Kanal and J. F. Lemmer, eds.) 69–76. North-Holland, Amsterdam.




decision

Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney or t-test? On assumptions for hypothesis tests and multiple interpretations of decision rules

Michael P. Fay, Michael A. Proschan

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 4, 1--39.

Abstract:
In a mathematical approach to hypothesis tests, we start with a clearly defined set of hypotheses and choose the test with the best properties for those hypotheses. In practice, we often start with less precise hypotheses. For example, often a researcher wants to know which of two groups generally has the larger responses, and either a t-test or a Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW) test could be acceptable. Although both t-tests and WMW tests are usually associated with quite different hypotheses, the decision rule and p-value from either test could be associated with many different sets of assumptions, which we call perspectives. It is useful to have many of the different perspectives to which a decision rule may be applied collected in one place, since each perspective allows a different interpretation of the associated p-value. Here we collect many such perspectives for the two-sample t-test, the WMW test and other related tests. We discuss validity and consistency under each perspective and discuss recommendations between the tests in light of these many different perspectives. Finally, we briefly discuss a decision rule for testing genetic neutrality where knowledge of the many perspectives is vital to the proper interpretation of the decision rule.




decision

Pediatric surgery : a quick guide to decision-making

Roy Choudhury, Subhasis, author.
9789811063046 (electronic bk.)




decision

Landscape modelling and decision support

9783030374211 (electronic bk.)




decision

Complete denture prosthodontics : planning and decision-making

Tam protezler. English
9783319690322 (electronic bk.)




decision

Sequential decision model for inference and prediction on nonuniform hypergraphs with application to knot matching from computational forestry

Seong-Hwan Jun, Samuel W. K. Wong, James V. Zidek, Alexandre Bouchard-Côté.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1678--1707.

Abstract:
In this paper, we consider the knot-matching problem arising in computational forestry. The knot-matching problem is an important problem that needs to be solved to advance the state of the art in automatic strength prediction of lumber. We show that this problem can be formulated as a quadripartite matching problem and develop a sequential decision model that admits efficient parameter estimation along with a sequential Monte Carlo sampler on graph matching that can be utilized for rapid sampling of graph matching. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on 30 manually annotated boards and present findings from various simulation studies to provide further evidence supporting the efficacy of our methods.




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Larry Brown’s Contributions to Parametric Inference, Decision Theory and Foundations: A Survey

James O. Berger, Anirban DasGupta.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 4, 621--634.

Abstract:
This article gives a panoramic survey of the general area of parametric statistical inference, decision theory and foundations of statistics for the period 1965–2010 through the lens of Larry Brown’s contributions to varied aspects of this massive area. The article goes over sufficiency, shrinkage estimation, admissibility, minimaxity, complete class theorems, estimated confidence, conditional confidence procedures, Edgeworth and higher order asymptotic expansions, variational Bayes, Stein’s SURE, differential inequalities, geometrization of convergence rates, asymptotic equivalence, aspects of empirical process theory, inference after model selection, unified frequentist and Bayesian testing, and Wald’s sequential theory. A reasonably comprehensive bibliography is provided.




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Comment: Empirical Bayes, Compound Decisions and Exchangeability

Eitan Greenshtein, Ya’acov Ritov.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 224--228.

Abstract:
We present some personal reflections on empirical Bayes/ compound decision (EB/CD) theory following Efron (2019). In particular, we consider the role of exchangeability in the EB/CD theory and how it can be achieved when there are covariates. We also discuss the interpretation of EB/CD confidence interval, the theoretical efficiency of the CD procedure, and the impact of sparsity assumptions.




decision

Wintrust Financial Corporation Announces Precautionary Decision to Help Achieve Community Health Objectives By Temporarily Closing Selected Branches

To view more press releases, please visit http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/news.aspx?iid=1024452.




decision

A Causal Role for Mouse Superior Colliculus in Visual Perceptual Decision-Making

The superior colliculus (SC) is arguably the most important visual structure in the mouse brain and is well known for its involvement in innate responses to visual threats and prey items. In other species, the SC plays a central role in voluntary as well as innate visual functions, including crucial contributions to selective attention and perceptual decision-making. In the mouse, the possible role of the SC in voluntary visual choice behaviors has not been established. Here, we demonstrate that the mouse SC of both sexes plays a causal role in visual perceptual decision-making by transiently inhibiting SC activity during an orientation change detection task. First, unilateral SC inhibition-induced spatially specific deficits in detection. Hit rates were reduced, and reaction times increased for orientation changes in the contralateral but not ipsilateral visual field. Second, the deficits caused by SC inhibition were specific to a temporal epoch coincident with early visual burst responses in the SC. Inhibiting SC during this 100-ms period caused a contralateral detection deficit, whereas inhibition immediately before or after did not. Third, SC inhibition reduced visual detection sensitivity. Psychometric analysis revealed that inhibiting SC visual activity significantly increased detection thresholds for contralateral orientation changes. In addition, effects on detection thresholds and lapse rates caused by SC inhibition were larger in the presence of a competing visual stimulus, indicating a role for the mouse SC in visual target selection. Together, our results demonstrate that the mouse SC is necessary for the normal performance of voluntary visual choice behaviors.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The mouse superior colliculus (SC) has become a popular model for studying the circuit organization and development of the visual system. Although the SC is a fundamental component of the visual pathways in mice, its role in visual perceptual decision-making is not clear. By investigating how temporally precise SC inhibition influenced behavioral performance during a visually guided orientation change detection task, we identified a 100-ms temporal epoch of SC visual activity that is crucial for the ability of mice to detect behaviorally relevant visual changes. In addition, we found that SC inhibition also caused deficits in visual target selection. Thus, our findings highlight the importance of the SC for visual perceptual choice behavior in the mouse.




decision

The Correlation of Neuronal Signals with Behavior at Different Levels of Visual Cortex and Their Relative Reliability for Behavioral Decisions

Behavior can be guided by neuronal activity in visual, auditory, or somatosensory cerebral cortex, depending on task requirements. In contrast to this flexible access of cortical signals, several observations suggest that behaviors depend more on neurons in later areas of visual cortex than those in earlier areas, although neurons in earlier areas would provide more reliable signals for many tasks. We recorded from neurons in different levels of visual cortex of 2 male rhesus monkeys while the animals did a visual discrimination task and examined trial-to-trial correlations between neuronal and behavioral responses. These correlations became stronger in primary visual cortex as neuronal signals in that area became more reliable relative to the other areas. The results suggest that the mechanisms that read signals from cortex might access any cortical area depending on the relative value of those signals for the task at hand.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Information is encoded by the action potentials of neurons in various cortical areas in a hierarchical manner such that increasingly complex stimulus features are encoded in successive stages. The brain must extract information from the response of appropriate neurons to drive optimal behavior. A widely held view of this decoding process is that the brain relies on the output of later cortical areas to make decisions, although neurons in earlier areas can provide more reliable signals. We examined correlations between perceptual decisions and the responses of neurons in different levels of monkey visual cortex. The results suggest that the brain may access signals in any cortical area depending on the relative value of those signals for the task at hand.




decision

Group looking for test case to challenge Higgs decision to close N.B. borders



  • News/Canada/New Brunswick

decision

Suspended Winnipeg school trustee says she won't fight board's decision

A Winnipeg School Division trustee who was suspended from the school board earlier this week does not plan on fighting the decision, she told CBC News.



  • News/Canada/Manitoba

decision

Weagle shocked at Team Homan decision to part ways after successful 11-year run

Team Homan's decision to part ways with Lisa Weagle dramatically changed the look of one of the country's top rinks and put the all-star lead at the top of curling's free agent list.



  • Sports/Olympics/Winter Sports/Curling

decision

Decision Time in Zimbabwe




decision

Belgian Brothers of Charity fight for their name after CDF decision

Rome Newsroom, May 8, 2020 / 02:00 pm (CNA).- After the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith ruled that the hospitals of the Brothers of Charity in Belgium can no longer be considered as Catholic, the religious order is seeking to prevent the hospital network from using its name, their general superior told CNA. 

Br. René Stockman, general superior of the Congregation of the Brothers of Charity, said he fought to keep the Catholic identity and mission of the hospitals intact. But when the Brothers of Charity Organization, the non-profit group which manages the hospitals, approved pro-euthanasia guidelines 2017, he immediately referred the matter to the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, which issued its decision at the end of March.

The CDF decision was communicated in a letter dated March 30, stating that "with deep sadness" the "psychiatric hospitals managed by the Provincialate of the Brothers of Charity association in Belgium will no longer be able to consider themselves Catholic institutions."

Stockman said he was now working to stop the 15-hospital network run by the Brothers of Charity Organization, the non-profit which brought in the pro-euthanasia policy, from continuing to use the order’s name.

“As a congregation,” Br. Stockman said, “we will clearly ask them not to use the name Brothers of Charity anymore for the psychiatric hospitals,” adding that ”we will do everything to come to clear arrangements without going to legal fight.” 

“We hope that we can make it [work] in that way,” he said, but the non-profit’s board have signalled resistance. 

Raf De Rycke, president of the Brothers of Charity Organization, said on May 5 that he intends to continue using the order’s name, and claimed the hospitals fulfil the same mission, and the same vision as ever, despite bringing in euthanasia.

The Stockman said the order was always adamant that they would never accept the possibility of euthanasia in their hospitals, but only a few brothers remain working in the hospitals, mostly in management roles. The order has asked them to leave their positions, now that they can no longer be considered Catholic. 

But, he said, “there are many doctors who don’t agree with the situation and they made their objection of conscience, but it becomes more difficult for them in an environment where the management is developing clear guidelines on how to perform the process and moving towards euthanasia when a psychiatric patient is asking for it.”

Belgium has ushered in ever-expanding access to euthanasia in recent years, including for mental health patients, even minors, suffering from conditions like depression. Belgian law prohibits contractual clauses or other provisions prohibiting doctors working in institutions to euthanize patients. A doctor or nurse still has the individual freedom of conscience to refuse to euthanize or participate to euthanasia, but the same freedom is no longer afforded to insitutions. 

Stockman said there was no question of not complying with Rome’s decision, and he hoped it would inspire others to reconsider the gravity of the spread of euthanasia.

“We hope that also others will reflect on it, especially in the field of mental health care. It is the first time that the Holy See through the CDF has given a clear answer on the growing practice of euthanasia in the field of mental health care,” he told CNA.  

Belgium has ushered in ever-expanding access to euthanasia in recent years, including for mental health patients, even minors, suffering from conditions like depression.

In an official statement published on their website, the Brothers of Charity Organization has accused Stockman of using the issue of euthanasia "within a broader and longer-lasting conflict” between the order and the non-profit on the use of assets. 

The non-profit suggested that Stockman has long wanted to devote more resources to the Brothers’ missions in Africa and Asian, as vocations have dried up in Belgium, where most of the order’s members are over eighty. Meanwhile, in the developing world, the congregation is growing; last year Br. Stockman welcomed 27 new novices in Nairobi.

The Brothers of Charity Organization frames the dispute as one of control over assets, and its statement said they "do not see the need to adapt our operations after this [CDF] letter because we are convinced that we are acting correctly."

The situation is being monitored closely by other Catholic organizations in the country who see it as a possible test case. So far, the bishops have remained circumspect.

In a May 6 statement, the Belgian Episcopal Conference said that "the bishops experience this as an excruciating and complex affair, in which different types of topics and different lines of responsibility meet." 

The conference called for "a prolonged dialogue between all those involved,” while stressing their "utmost appreciation for the commitment of the Brothers of Charity in Belgium and all their employees to the benefit of mentally disabled, sick or injured people."

Calls for dialogue, however, may prove wishful thinking. As part of its review of the situation, the CDF sent Bishop Jan Hendriks, auxiliary of Amsterdam, as an apostolic visitor to try to resolve the situation, but, the Congregation said, he was unable to find "a viable solution that avoids any form of responsibility of the institution for euthanasia."

The conference also said that "based on their pastoral responsibility, the bishops will continue to work for unity and solidarity in the ecclesial community. They maintain their trust and will continue to cooperate with all the health institutions of Christian civil society."

Stockman did not comment on the bishops’ conference statement.

“Of course,” he said, “we feel, as a congregation, alone [in this fight], but [we are proceeding] in line with the doctrine of the Church, with the clear statement made by our general chapter in 2018 and with our charism of charity.” 




decision

Belgian Brothers of Charity fight for their name after CDF decision

Rome Newsroom, May 8, 2020 / 02:00 pm (CNA).- After the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith ruled that the hospitals of the Brothers of Charity in Belgium can no longer be considered as Catholic, the religious order is seeking to prevent the hospital network from using its name, their general superior told CNA. 

Br. René Stockman, general superior of the Congregation of the Brothers of Charity, said he fought to keep the Catholic identity and mission of the hospitals intact. But when the Brothers of Charity Organization, the non-profit group which manages the hospitals, approved pro-euthanasia guidelines 2017, he immediately referred the matter to the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, which issued its decision at the end of March.

The CDF decision was communicated in a letter dated March 30, stating that "with deep sadness" the "psychiatric hospitals managed by the Provincialate of the Brothers of Charity association in Belgium will no longer be able to consider themselves Catholic institutions."

Stockman said he was now working to stop the 15-hospital network run by the Brothers of Charity Organization, the non-profit which brought in the pro-euthanasia policy, from continuing to use the order’s name.

“As a congregation,” Br. Stockman said, “we will clearly ask them not to use the name Brothers of Charity anymore for the psychiatric hospitals,” adding that ”we will do everything to come to clear arrangements without going to legal fight.” 

“We hope that we can make it [work] in that way,” he said, but the non-profit’s board have signalled resistance. 

Raf De Rycke, president of the Brothers of Charity Organization, said on May 5 that he intends to continue using the order’s name, and claimed the hospitals fulfil the same mission, and the same vision as ever, despite bringing in euthanasia.

The Stockman said the order was always adamant that they would never accept the possibility of euthanasia in their hospitals, but only a few brothers remain working in the hospitals, mostly in management roles. The order has asked them to leave their positions, now that they can no longer be considered Catholic. 

But, he said, “there are many doctors who don’t agree with the situation and they made their objection of conscience, but it becomes more difficult for them in an environment where the management is developing clear guidelines on how to perform the process and moving towards euthanasia when a psychiatric patient is asking for it.”

Belgium has ushered in ever-expanding access to euthanasia in recent years, including for mental health patients, even minors, suffering from conditions like depression. Belgian law prohibits contractual clauses or other provisions prohibiting doctors working in institutions to euthanize patients. A doctor or nurse still has the individual freedom of conscience to refuse to euthanize or participate to euthanasia, but the same freedom is no longer afforded to insitutions. 

Stockman said there was no question of not complying with Rome’s decision, and he hoped it would inspire others to reconsider the gravity of the spread of euthanasia.

“We hope that also others will reflect on it, especially in the field of mental health care. It is the first time that the Holy See through the CDF has given a clear answer on the growing practice of euthanasia in the field of mental health care,” he told CNA.  

Belgium has ushered in ever-expanding access to euthanasia in recent years, including for mental health patients, even minors, suffering from conditions like depression.

In an official statement published on their website, the Brothers of Charity Organization has accused Stockman of using the issue of euthanasia "within a broader and longer-lasting conflict” between the order and the non-profit on the use of assets. 

The non-profit suggested that Stockman has long wanted to devote more resources to the Brothers’ missions in Africa and Asian, as vocations have dried up in Belgium, where most of the order’s members are over eighty. Meanwhile, in the developing world, the congregation is growing; last year Br. Stockman welcomed 27 new novices in Nairobi.

The Brothers of Charity Organization frames the dispute as one of control over assets, and its statement said they "do not see the need to adapt our operations after this [CDF] letter because we are convinced that we are acting correctly."

The situation is being monitored closely by other Catholic organizations in the country who see it as a possible test case. So far, the bishops have remained circumspect.

In a May 6 statement, the Belgian Episcopal Conference said that "the bishops experience this as an excruciating and complex affair, in which different types of topics and different lines of responsibility meet." 

The conference called for "a prolonged dialogue between all those involved,” while stressing their "utmost appreciation for the commitment of the Brothers of Charity in Belgium and all their employees to the benefit of mentally disabled, sick or injured people."

Calls for dialogue, however, may prove wishful thinking. As part of its review of the situation, the CDF sent Bishop Jan Hendriks, auxiliary of Amsterdam, as an apostolic visitor to try to resolve the situation, but, the Congregation said, he was unable to find "a viable solution that avoids any form of responsibility of the institution for euthanasia."

The conference also said that "based on their pastoral responsibility, the bishops will continue to work for unity and solidarity in the ecclesial community. They maintain their trust and will continue to cooperate with all the health institutions of Christian civil society."

Stockman did not comment on the bishops’ conference statement.

“Of course,” he said, “we feel, as a congregation, alone [in this fight], but [we are proceeding] in line with the doctrine of the Church, with the clear statement made by our general chapter in 2018 and with our charism of charity.” 




decision

A courageous decision

A 20-year-old man, who suffered from addictions and domestic violence, accepted Christ into his life during the OM Mexico July outreach in Huatulco, Oaxaca.




decision

Darius L. Swann, Father in Case That Led to Landmark Busing Decision, Dies at 95

The Presbyterian minister's efforts in 1964 to send his son to an integrated school in Charlotte, N.C., led to a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding busing as a desegregation tool.




decision

Data-Based Decisionmaking

State structures can make the difference in whether local education research partnerships are effective, according to a new report by the Data Quality Campaign.




decision

District Leaders Have Some Big Decisions to Make. Here Are 6 Things to Know

The coronavirus crisis has made staffing and hiring decisions more uncertain, but planning needs to start now, writes Terry B. Grier.




decision

Shared Decision-Making and Health Care Expenditures Among Children With Special Health Care Needs

Children with special health care needs (CSHCN) account for more than one-third of pediatric health care costs. Little is known regarding the impact of shared decision-making (SDM) over time on child health care expenditures and utilization.

In a national sample, we found that increasing SDM was associated with decreased health care costs and utilization for CSHCN. Results support prospective studies to determine if pediatric interventions to foster SDM reduce the financial burden of caring for CSHCN. (Read the full article)




decision

A Decision-Tree Approach to Cost Comparison of Newborn Screening Strategies for Cystic Fibrosis

Although it has been shown that cystic fibrosis newborn screening is beneficial, the strategies vary widely, and there has been uncertainty about the costs and consequences of different algorithms and whether screening methods/decisions should be based on assumed cost differences.

This study contributes by offering a comparison of both costs, assessed comprehensively, and the consequences associated with the 2 most popular screening methodologies, immunoreactive trypsinogen/immunoreactive trypsinogen and immunoreactive trypsinogen/DNA, by using a decision-tree framework allowing variation in the model parameters. (Read the full article)




decision

Effects of Description of Options on Parental Perinatal Decision-Making

Studies have found that the degree of detail with which palliative care is described and the order in which options are presented can affect end-of-life decisions. None of these studies, though, involved decisions regarding very premature infants.

Unlike other end-of-life decisions, those regarding extremely premature infants are influenced neither by the degree of detail nor order of presentation of management options. Deep-seated values embodied in the reasons given for these choices suggest why they are so robust. (Read the full article)




decision

Factors Related to Voluntary Parental Decision-Making in Pediatric Oncology

Valid parental permission requires that the decision be both informed and voluntary. Previous research has focused on the informational components of decision-making (eg, disclosure and understanding), with little empirical attention to the voluntariness of decisions.

We address this gap by examining the voluntariness of parents making research or treatment decisions in pediatric oncology. We identify demographic and contextual correlates of voluntariness and highlight the clinical implications of the findings for physicians and investigators. (Read the full article)