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Private equity investors are zeroing in on financial advice business

The registered investment advisor industry has attracted the attention of private equity investors, thanks to good growth, high profit margins, consistent cash flow and low capital needs.




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What financial advisors, investors could expect from a Charles Schwab-TD Ameritrade merger

The custody arena for registered investment advisors is about to get a lot smaller if Charles Schwab acquires TD Ameritrade. Here's what that might mean for services for financial advisors and their clients.




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Why advisors encourage these older investors to buy more stocks

Just because you're approaching retirement doesn't mean you have to shy away from stocks. Financial advisors discuss why it may make sense for investors to step up their equity allocation — particularly if they can count on pension income.




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Advisors urge investors to avoid these mistakes with their 401(k) during coronavirus crisis

There are some key things that retirement savers should steer clear of doing with their 401(k), despite uncertainty over exactly when the stock market will recoup its losses and head higher.




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General Motors CFO on Q1 earnings, coronavirus impact, demand and more

Dhivya Suryadevara, General Motors CFO, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the company's first-quarter earnings results, closing of the North American plants, auto demand, the path forward and more.




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FLIR Systems CEO Jim Cannon on providing thermal scanners for GM factories

Jim Cannon, CEO of FLIR Systems, joins "Squawk Alley" to discuss demand for its thermal camera technology to scan for potential coronavirus infections in workers.




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Victoria Falls dries to a trickle after worst drought in a century

One of southern Africa’s biggest tourist attractions has seen an unprecedented decline this dry season, fuelling climate change fears

For decades Victoria Falls, where southern Africa’s Zambezi river cascades down 100 metres into a gash in the earth, have drawn millions of holidaymakers to Zimbabwe and Zambia for their stunning views.

But the worst drought in a century has slowed the waterfalls to a trickle, fuelling fears that climate change could kill one of the region’s biggest tourist attractions.

Related: Zimbabwe on verge of 'manmade starvation', warns UN envoy

Continue reading...




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Worst drought in a century shrinks Victoria Falls to a trickle – video

Victoria Falls, on the border of Zimbabwe and Zambia, has slowed down to a trickle after an unprecedented decline in water levels, officials have said. Data from the Zambezi River authority showed water flow at its lowest since 1995, and well under the long-term average. 

The Zambian president, Edgar Lungu, said it was a stark reminder of what climate change is doing to the environment, yet some scientists are cautious about categorically blaming the climate crisis. Harald Kling, a hydrologist at engineering firm Pöyry and a Zambezi River expert, said climate science dealt in decades, not particular years, 'so it’s sometimes difficult to say: this is because of climate change because droughts have always occurred'

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More than half of women in Zimbabwe have faced sextortion, finds survey

Widespread corruption and deteriorating economy have contributed to rise in sexual bribery, say researchers

Zimbabwe has recorded an unprecedented number of women reporting being forced to exchange sex for employment or business favours.

More than 57% of women surveyed by Transparency International Zimbabwe (TIZ) said they had been forced to offer sexual favours in exchange for jobs, medical care and even when seeking placements at schools for their children.

Related: We were promised change – but corruption and brutality still rule in Zimbabwe | Fadzayi Mahere

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Doctors sue Zimbabwe government over lack of Covid-19 protective equipment

Court application warns ‘many lives will be lost’ without urgent action to provide face masks

The Zimbabwean government has been taken to court over its failure to provide doctors working on the frontline of the Covid-19 pandemic with masks.

The Zimbabwe Association for Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR) is seeking to compel the authorities urgently to provide personal protective equipment (PPE) for medical practitioners, warning that medics in the country’s troubled health sector will otherwise die.

Related: 'We will starve': Zimbabwe's poor full of misgiving over Covid-19 lockdown

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Historic job losses, and stocks rally

Stocks were up today despite a record drop in payrolls. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Brian Kelly and Jeff Mills.




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Confusion over French quarantine rules for overseas visitors

London embassy contradicts health minister as visitors could face 14-day confinement even if asymptomatic

French officials have announced that Britons and those from European Union member states will not be placed in 14 days mandatory quarantine if they travel to France, as suggested by the country’s health minister.

In what appeared to be a direct contradiction of Olivier Véran’s statement on Saturday, the French embassy in London tweeted that the measure would not be imposed on those arriving in France from the UK or Schengen area.

Related: France to sell some of nation's antique furniture to support hospitals

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VE Day: Churchill feared De Gaulle would declare victory early

War cabinet papers reveal PM’s concern French ally would pre-empt joint announcement

Winston Churchill believed a disgruntled general Charles de Gaulle intended to pre-empt the allies’ announcement of victory in Europe by 24 hours but felt unable to pressure him to change his plans, according to British war cabinet documents released free online by the National Archives during the lockdown.

The 75th anniversary of VE Day will be celebrated on Friday 8 May but Gen Dwight Eisenhower, the supreme allied commander in north-west Europe, and the Soviet high command had actually received the German surrender in the French city of Reims on 7 May 1945 at 2.41am.

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How to build a gaming PC for 2020, part two: choosing a mouse, keyboard and monitor

You’ve bought the perfect PC – now you need to complete your setup to get the best from your games. Here are our suggestions

When you’re buying a new gaming PC from scratch, the machine itself is only part of the picture. To get the very best out of the most demanding modern games, you’ll need the rest of your setup to be working hard too – especially if you ever want to win at Call of Duty: Warzone.

Here then, are our picks for the best gaming monitors, keyboards and mice. Helping me to make the selection are Alan Dexter, senior hardware editor at PC Gamer, Chris Wilson, design director at Cardboard Sword, Al Bickham, communications manager at Creative Assembly, and Nic Claassen, head of product business at Acer UK.

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Trading Nation: Norwegian Cruise Lines says it expects Q1 loss. Here's what investors are seeing

Norweigan Cruise is down 20 percent. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak, and Danielle Shay of Simpler Trading, discuss their forecast for the stock with Seema Mody.




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Investors need to prepare for a slow and uneven recovery: RBC Capital's Lori Calvasina

Eric Marshall, Hodges Capital Management portfolio manager, and Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss what the economic data is indicating to investors.




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Uber earnings and big layoffs hit Silicon Valley's lucrative start-up sector: CNBC After Hours

CNBC.com's MacKenzie Sigalos brings you the day's top business news headlines, and what to watch as the coronavirus pandemic continues to keep most of America on lockdown. Today, CNBC's Kate Rooney also takes a look at the widespread layoffs hitting the lucrative tech sector and start-up scene.




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Wharton's Jeremy Siegel on why historic April job losses aren't impacting stocks

Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the April jobs numbers and what the data means for the U.S. economy.




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FDA authorizes VitalPatch for monitoring Covid-19 patients—Here's how it works

CNBC's Tyler Mathisen is joined by Vital Connect CEO Peter Van Haur to talk about how the company's VitalPatch product just got FDA approval to monitor coronavirus patients.




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Jim Cramer: Wall Street welcomes positive coronavirus news, but investors should remain cautious

"We need to acknowledge that good things can still happen without going into denial about all the bad things that are currently happening," the "Mad Money" host said.




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Betrayal and bombast: the surreal story of the Terry v Bridge saga | Jonathan Liew

More than a decade on, fact and fiction remain entangled in the tale of former teammates turned enemies. The human core of the entire episode, though, is not a footballer

Officially, nothing happened. This is, by the way, no minor detail: to this day Vanessa Perroncel fervently denies that any affair took place between her and John Terry in late 2009, and she has the printed apologies and legal documents to back it up. Normally this bit is begrudgingly buried at the bottom of the piece. But it’s worth dwelling on, if only because it forces us to confront the vast, incalculable gulf between what we definitively know and what, over the years, we’ve simply assumed.

A decade on, fact and fiction remain knottily entangled. Over time, the story of how Terry and his former friend and Chelsea teammate Wayne Bridge found themselves at the centre of one of English football’s most hysterical scandals begins to feel surreal, perhaps even a touch unreal: a bad memory that most would prefer to pretend never happened.

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For MLS, anything less than astronomical losses could be a victory

The league’s centralised structure should help during the pandemic but it is also vulnerable in a way that European competitions are not

The warning from Adrian Hanauer was stark. According to the Seattle Sounders majority owner, the shutdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic could result in “astronomical” losses for Major League Soccer teams. “Hundreds of millions, billions, really big numbers,” he told the Sounder At Heart podcast earlier this month.

Hanauer’s remarks were in line with much of what is being said around the soccer world. The sport has never experienced anything like this with entire seasons on hold, soon to be abandoned in some cases, and competitions such as Euro 2020 and Women’s Euro 2021 pushed back a whole year. For all the meetings that have been held and contingency plans drawn up, nobody can guarantee when play will resume.

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SPFL directors hit back at Rangers, Hearts face drop with restructure off

  • Statement dismisses Rangers complaints as ‘self-serving’
  • Proposals for three-tier league system are abandoned

Directors of the Scottish Professional Football League have snapped back at allegations raised in a dossier issued by Rangers and urged clubs not to back calls for an independent investigation into the handling of a vote to abandon this season.

Rangers, who last month called for the suspension of the SPFL’s chief executive and legal adviser, distributed an extensive document to fellow league members on Thursday as they seek to win the 75% support needed at Tuesday’s extraordinary general meeting to trigger an inquiry. Rangers raised a series of questions over the conduct and governance of the SPFL, whose board was firm in its recommendation the season vote should pass.

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Watford chairman questions integrity of 'distorted mini-league' at neutral venues

  • Scott Duxbury: ‘How is there any semblance of fairness?’
  • League would ‘bear no resemblance to the one we started’

Watford have joined Aston Villa and Brighton in voicing objections to the Premier League’s plan to play out the season at neutral venues on police advice, claiming it would be unfair to relegate clubs on the basis of a competition that “bears no resemblance to the one that was started”.

Sitting just above the bottom three when the league was suspended and uncomfortably aware Villa could leapfrog them if they play and win their game in hand, Watford were due to play five of their remaining nine fixtures at Vicarage Road and feel that being deprived of home advantage could affect the number of points they gather.

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Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Allocator Multi Manager FoF Scheme - Regular Plan - Growth Option

Category Other Scheme - FoF Domestic
NAV 27.5788
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Allocator Multi Manager FoF Scheme - Regular Plan - Dividend Option

Category Other Scheme - FoF Domestic
NAV 25.394
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Allocator Multi Manager FoF Scheme - Direct Plan - Growth Option

Category Other Scheme - FoF Domestic
NAV 13.9288
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Allocator Multi Manager FoF Scheme - Direct Plan - Dividend Option

Category Other Scheme - FoF Domestic
NAV 13.2745
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Franklin India Liquid Fund - Unclaimed Redemption Investor Education Plan - Growth

Category Debt Scheme - Liquid Fund
NAV 10.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Franklin India Liquid Fund - Unclaimed Dividend Investor Education Plan - Growth

Category Debt Scheme - Liquid Fund
NAV 10.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Seeks to make amendments to special procedure for corporate debtors undergoing the corporate insolvency resolution process under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016

[To be published in the Gazette of India, Extraordinary, Part II, Section 3, Sub-section (i)] Government of India Ministry of Finance




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GST Implications on Real Estate Sector

In this article, I am discussing on the applicable rate of GST on different services boxed under Real Estate mentioning the reference of relevant provision.




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US payrolls suffer record fall; UK construction and German factories slump - as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as American companies slash payrolls at an unprecedented rate

Earlier:

It’s been another day of dire economic data, as the coronovirus pandemic hits firms across the globe.

Related: Small firms secure £2bn in bounce-back loans in first 24 hours

Related: Coronavirus threatens future of eurozone, Brussels warns

After a choppy day’s trading, European stock markets have closed mostly in the red.

The Stoxx 600 index dipped by 0.4%, with America’s surge in unemployment reminding traders that the world economy is entering a steep recession.

Back in the UK, troubled department store chain Debenhams is to permanently close five additional sites.

The move puts more than 1,000 jobs at risk. All the stores are in shopping centres owned by property firm Hammerson including The Oracle in Reading and Birmingham’s Bullring.

Related: Debenhams appoints administrators and liquidates Irish chain

The Financial Times says America is facing an unemployment crisis of historic proportions, judging by today’s slump in private sector payrolls.

The US private sector shed a record 20m jobs in April as coronavirus lockdowns and the resulting closure of non-essential businesses led to historic unemployment.

Non-farm private employers cut 20.2m jobs last month, according to payroll processor ADP. That compared with economists’ expectations for 20m and easily surpassed the previous record of about 835,000 in February 2009 during the financial crisis.

The report is a harbinger of the government’s April jobs report on Friday and adds to evidence of the pandemic’s widespread economic devastation. The Labor Department’s figures are projected to show a record 21 million decline in total nonfarm payrolls and a jobless rate surging to 16%.

More than 30 million people have applied for jobless benefits in the past six weeks, though not all of them are still unemployed. Another 3 million probably applied in the past week.

In all likelihood, total job losses probably exceed the 23 million new jobs created from the end of the last recession in 2009 until the pandemic took hold in mid-March.

The global recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has also driven up US oil stockpiles.

US crude oil inventories jumped by nearly 4.6 million barrels in the last week, the Energy Information Administration reports, despite some producers cutting output following the slump in prices.

#OOTT | US DoE Crude Oil Inventories 01-May: 4590K (est 8800K; prev 8991K)
- Distillate: 9518K (est 3000K; prev 5092K)
- Cushing: 2068K (prev 3637K)
- Gasoline: -3158K (est 1000K; prev -3669K)
- Refinery Utilization: 0.90% (est 0.45%; prev 2.00%)

Chart on US petroleum (crude, oil products, SPR) inventories in mb (source: EIA) #OOTT pic.twitter.com/hoz5sIJ5YT

Back in the UK, more than 400 oil rig workers have been flown off North Sea oil rigs in recent weeks with suspected Covid-19 symptoms or because they are at high risk of contracting it.

“The industry has been toiling with all the ramifications of social distancing and isolations, as well as how to test and when to test. It has been a pretty turbulent four or five weeks.”

“This apparent reduction is a small move in the right direction but we can’t stress enough the need to remain alert, to continue to follow protocols and to raise any concerns in both on and offshore working environments.”

Here’s a good video clip explaining the record fall in US employment:

JUST IN: U.S. private payrolls fell by more than 20.2 million in April, the worst loss in the ADP survey’s history. https://t.co/E37a0IjOc5 pic.twitter.com/FRcGtXXVa6

The US stock market appears to be shrugging off the dramatic surge in US unemployment.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 0.3% in early trading, gaining 76 points to 23,959. Quite a subdued reaction to the news that Twenty Million Americans lost their jobs last month.

“Equity markets seem quite happy about the prospects of factories and shops gearing up for more activity, but confidence, the key ingredient to secure a return to normal, remains elusive. Even though China has now gone weeks without a new case, the COVID19 curves are not flattening everywhere. Indeed, in some US states the trends continue to worsen and there are still lots of unanswered questions about how and why it spreads.

“Fresh outbreaks raise the threat of further lockdowns in some parts of the country. More damaging will be delays in restoring confidence to workers and shoppers that more normal activity is safe.

Bloomberg News’s analysis found that 20 states that have lifted restrictions don’t meet the White House guidelines for reopening.

Many are moving ahead anyway https://t.co/H79gTbdPQx pic.twitter.com/bTwoeW4yGe

Uber is also permanently close 180 driver service centres as part of its cost-cutting drive, Bloomberg reports:

Of the more than 450 driver centers Uber operates worldwide, 40% will shut down. The locations, called Greenlight Hubs, are used to sign people up to drive for Uber, teach them how to use the app and address issues that arise on the job. In March, as the virus was spreading in North America, Uber said it was temporarily closing all hubs in the U.S. and Canada.

Dara Khosrowshahi signaled that more “difficult adjustments” would be put forth in the next two weeks. “Days like this are brutal,” he wrote [in an email to employees].

Uber will eliminate 3,700 jobs and permanently close 180 driver service centers, the first in a series of cost-cutting measures https://t.co/PxmZFyaizu

Just in: Uber is adding to America’s unemployment misery, by cutting 3,700 jobs in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Due to lower trip volumes in its Rides segment and the Company’s current hiring freeze, the Company is reducing its customer support and recruiting teams by approximately 3,700 full-time employee roles.

In connection with these actions, the Company estimates that it will incur approximately $20 million related to severance and other termination benefits.

UBER TO CUT 3,700 EMPLOYEES, ABOUT 14% OF WORKFORCE, AS CORONAVIRUS CAUSES DEMAND TO PLUNGE
(cnbc)

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics fears that America’s jobless rate will hit at least 15% on Friday, when the government publishes April’s Non-Farm Payroll.

He points out that today’s ADP report isn’t completely comparable to NFP:

The ADP counts anyone on the active payroll rather than just people who were paid during the month, which is the official non-farm payroll definition. Within many people put on temporary layoff, that could have created a discrepancy, with those people still on the active payroll, but not counted in the official non-farm payroll figures and also qualifying as unemployed in the other official household survey.

We still estimate that non-farm payrolls fell by 22,500,000, with the unemployment rate rising to somewhere between 15% and 20%.

Heather Long of the Washington Post points out that America’s labor market has lost all the job creation gains of the last decade:

A decade of US job gains was wiped out in two months

ADP says 20.2 millions jobs were lost in April. Official government report comes out Friday https://t.co/uoaWRZnmHu

The @ADP private sector payroll report: 20.2mn #jobs losses in April:

- services 16mn job losses with half in leisure & hospitality (8.6mn), followed by #trade and transportation (-3.4mn), other svc (-1.3mn), prof/biz svc (-1.2mn)

- goods -4.2nm with +half in construction pic.twitter.com/11WSR2PM4U

More Detail: pic.twitter.com/DJeMYLL4nj

The level of private sector employment in April @ADP pic.twitter.com/0rd65NzbRT

ADP have also provided a sector-by-sector breakdown of the catastrophic job losses across America last month:

Goods producers cut 4.23 million jobs:

We’ve had a lot of bad data recently, but April’s US private sector payroll is a real shocker.

At 20.3 million, last month’s job losses obliterate the previous record of around 835,000 jobs lost in February 2009 after the financial crisis.

ADP pic.twitter.com/zP1WYsapfc

Another ominous sign for the April jobs report Friday..

20.2 million private sector jobs were lost in April, according to ADP. Shattered the previous record of 835K in February 2009.

Newsflash: More than 20 million Americans lost their jobs at companies across the country last month.

ADP, which processes payrolls for companies across America, has just reported that private sector employment decreased by 20,236,000 jobs from March to April.

Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during the Great Recession.

As such, the April NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation.

BREAKING:

*U.S. ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS PLUNGE BY 20.236 MILLION IN APRIL, THE WORST JOB LOSS IN THE HISTORY OF ADP REPORT$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX pic.twitter.com/lh8oLbVMeY

US car maker General Motors has cheered Wall Street by beating profit expectations, and outlining plans to restart operations later this month.

Net income at the carmaker tumbled in the last quarter to around $300m, down from $2.16bn a year ago.

Considerable planning is under way to restart operations in North America.

Based on conversations and collaboration with unions and government officials, GM is targeting to restart the majority of manufacturing operations on May 18 in the U.S. and Canada under extensive safety measures.”

GM plans to resume production May 18 at 'majority' of N.A. operations https://t.co/2hJgKBg9Sg pic.twitter.com/JGPci4h97c

Despite the surge in UK government borrowing, there’s no shortage of willing buyers for British gilts.

Reuters has spotted that the UK borrowed for thirty years at a cheaper rate than ever before:

Britain’s government paid investors an interest rate of under 0.5% to borrow for more than 30 years on Wednesday, the lowest-ever yield at an auction for a conventional British government bond with a maturity of more than 10 years.

Investors bid for 2.6 times the 1.75 billion pounds ($2.17 billion) on offer of the 1.625% 2054 gilt, similar to the last sale of the bond on April 21, and the average successful bidder will receive an annual yield of 0.495%.

Overnight, Airbnb has set out plans to make 1,900 staff redundant – around a quarter of its global workforce – as it forecast that its revenues in 2020 will be half the $4.8bn it earned in 2019.

“We don’t know exactly when travel will return. When travel does return, it will look different.”

“People will want options that are closer to home, safer, and more affordable,”

Both sterling and the euro have fallen, after this morning’s dire PMI surveys.

The pound has shed half a cent against the US dollar to $1.238, its lowest in seven sessions, as traders digested the unprecedented drop in construction activity.

“The euro and sterling are in the firing line this morning, with a host of economic releases highlighting just how dire the economic picture is irrespective on continued gains seen throughout stock markets.

“From a PMI perspective, final readings are typically perceived as a somewhat drab affair as minimal adjustments are made to previous estimates.

Nearly 70,000 state-backed loans to small UK firms have been granted, totalling over £2bn, in the latest effort to protect Britain’s economy from the pandemic.

The Bounce Back Loan Scheme opened on Monday, and proved popular with struggling companies. Seven large lenders received more than 130,000 applications on Monday, the Treasury reports.

Almost 70k Bounce Back Loans worth £2.1bn approved on the first day.

Millions of pounds have already landed in people’s accounts, supporting those firms through the #coronavirus crisis.

Find out more: https://t.co/cvXhsi3iSu pic.twitter.com/o80UoJjZb1

Bounce Back Loans for small businesses - I'm still getting messages from Barclays customers saying the online application system isn't working for them
This is the 3rd day since launch

There has been a massive demand for the Bounce Back Loan and it is taking longer then expected but I can assure you that is being worked on. You should receive the email at some point today, if not received already. Hope this helps. Thank you. [ASA]

Europe will experience a recession this year of a depth unmatched since the Great Depression and the UK will be one of the hardest hit, the European Commission has just warned.

Economic forecasts published by the Commission on Wednesday suggest that the UK will experience an 8.3% contraction by the end of the year, with investment down by 14% and a doubling of unemployment.

“While the immediate fallout will be far more severe for the global economy than the financial crisis, the depth of the impact will depend on the evolution of the pandemic, our ability to safely restart economic activity and to rebound thereafter. “This is a symmetric shock: all EU countries are affected and all are expected to have a recession this year.”

Eurozone heading for its worst GDP contraction on record at 7.75% this year according to @EU_Commission forecasts. In order of magnitude for 2020:
-9.7%
-9.5%
-9.4%
-8.2%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-7.4%
-7.2%
-7%
-7%
-6.9%
-6.8%
-6.8%
-6.7%
-6.5%

-6.3%
-5.8%
-5.5%
-5.4%

Non-euro:
-9.1%
-8.3%
-7.2%
-7%
-6.1%
-6%
-5.9%
-4.3%

Despite this morning’s torrent of bad news, the UK stock market has nudged higher - with the blue-chip FTSE 100 and the smaller FTSE 250 index both up 0.5%.

That’ll please those investors who piled into shares last month, on hopes that the worst of the market slump is over.

Small investors poured into the stock market in April in the hope of picking up bargains, with record inflows into funds according to data provider Calastone.

A net £2.6bn was invested in equity funds in the UK in April, the highest monthly figure on record and six times more than a typical month, it said.

About 70% of the country’s 10,500 fish and chips shops have reopened as owners find new ways of doing business under lockdown.

Virgin Money is delaying its company wide rebrand– which will involve snuffing out the Clydesdale and Yorkshire bank names – due to Covid-19.

But the bank’s chief executive insisted the project has not been derailed due bad press linked to Richard Branson’s poorly-received attempts to tap government rescue money to save his Virgin Atlantic airline.

“Effectively we are continuing with the implementation of the our rebranding. We think it’s a great consumer brand and we’re delivering for our customers in a really customer-oriented way, which is in the DNA of that brand. So absolutely no changes to make in terms of that.

And all airlines I think are suffering from the same level of difficulty, so I’m not concerned about that.”

The Covid-19 lockdown has knocked the wind out of the building industry, warns Duncan Brock of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

He fears it will take many years to recover:

“Only a few civil engineering and infrastructure projects were able to continue in April, but a tentative restart is expected in other areas such as house building and commercial construction in the short-term. As new plans from policymakers are developed over social distancing, building work may continue but not as we know it as restrictions and new safety rules are likely to make progress more difficult.

For a sector still not fully recovered from the skills shortages created by the financial crisis in 2008, the vacuum of output created by the pandemic has knocked the sector back another decade.”

Tim Moore, economics director at IHS Markit, reports that UK builders are (understandably) worried about the future after effectively shutting down in April.

Many are concerned about their cash flow, despite putting many workers on the government’s furloughing scheme.

A drop in construction activity of historic proportions in April looks set to be followed by a gradual reopening of sites in the coming weeks, subject to strict reviews of safety measures.

“However, the prospect of severe disruption across the supply chain will continue over the longer-term and widespread use of the government job retention scheme has been needed to cushion the impact on employment.

Construction firms reported that new business orders tumbled in April as customers shied away from signing contracts amid the lockdown.

Markit explains:

Construction companies commented on the suspension of contract awards due to business closures among clients, as well as uncertainty about the duration of stoppages on site and feasibility of starting new projects.

Newsflash: Britain’s construction industry has suffered its worst ever monthly contraction, as builders downed tools to comply with the Covid-19 lockdown.

The UK construction PMI has slumped to just 8.2 for April, down from 39.3 in March, and far (far!) below the 50-point mark showing stagnation.

The vast majority of survey respondents (86%) reported a reduction in business activity since March, reflecting widespread site closures and shutdowns across the supply chain in response to the public health emergency.

Just in: The eurozone’s private sector shrank at an unprecedented rate last month, led by Spain and Italy.

Data firm Markit’s eurozone composite PMI, which tracks activity across its private sector, has slumped to 13.6 for April, down from 29.7 in March.

“The extent of the euro area economic downturn was laid bare by record downturns in every country surveyed in April, with output falling at unprecedented rates across the region’s manufacturing and services sectors.

With a large part of the region’s economy shut down while COVID-19 infections spiked higher, the economic data for April were inevitably going to be bad, but the scale of the decline is still shocking. The survey data are indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of around 7.5%, far surpassing the worst decline seen in the global financial crisis. Jobs are also being lost at a rate never previously seen.

Ocado is continuing to profit from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The online grocer has reported a 40% surge in UK revenue so far this quarter, up from 10% growth in the first three months of 2020.

Growth in Retail Revenue in the Second Quarter to date is 40.4% up on last year, compared to 10.3% growth in the First Quarter.

The number of items per basket appears to have passed its peak but remains high, as more normal shopping behaviours have returned, and the share of fresh and chilled products in the mix, relative to ambient, is also returning to normal.

Ouch! Spain’s service sector has also suffered its worst monthly slump on record, with its PMI sliding to a mere 7.1 in April, from 23 in March.

That shows an “unprecedented” drop in activity.

Spain Markit Services PMI – April Report https://t.co/i5aytgLrSV pic.twitter.com/3J470i7sQb

India’s service sector is shrinking at an unprecedented rate, due to its Covid-19 lockdown.

The Indian service sector PMI, which measures activity across the sector, has taken an almighty tumble -- dropping to just 5.4 from 49.3 in March. An extraordinary plunge, on an index where 50 points shows stagnation.

India April services PMI 5.4 from 49.3. Talk about locked down!!! pic.twitter.com/mv78wdadBs

Historical comparisons with GDP data suggest that India’s economy contracted at an annual rate of 15% in April.

It is clear that the economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic has so far been deep and far-reaching in India, but the hope is that the economy has endured the worst and things will begin to improve as lockdown measures are gradually lifted.

India Services PMI: 5.4

Wow. The lowest ever anywhere? That’s worse than I’d have expected in the aftermath of nuclear war.

ITV has revealed the scale of the impact of the coronavirus, by furloughing 800 staff as advertising slumped 42% last month.

“We are now very focused on emerging from this crisis in a strong position, continuing to offer advertisers effective marketing opportunities and making preparations to restart productions safely.”

German carmaker BMW has also highlighted the economic cost of Covid-19 this morning.

BMW has reported a 20% tumble in vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2020, including a 30% slump in China.

The worldwide spread of coronavirus has left international automobile markets in an extremely weak overall condition after the first three months of the year. Initially, events were dominated by a slump in registrations in China in February and March.

However, all other major automobile markets subsequently reported declines, some of them drastic, especially from March 2020 onwards.

“The decisive factor for the adjustment is that the measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic are lasting longer in several markets and are thus leading to a broader negative impact than was foreseeable in mid-March.

It is therefore apparent that delivery volumes in these markets will not – as was previously assumed - return to normal within a few weeks. The highest negative impact is expected in the second quarter of 2020.”

Carmaker BMW posts 1Q revenues +3.5% to €23.25bn but gross profit -13% to €3.5bn. Deliveries -20% in line with German market, EU demand -25%, China -50%. Operating costs up on higher raw material costs. Cuts FY guidance.https://t.co/t4jZOAAYD4

Germany’s economy ministry blamed the dramatic fall in orders on the global economic shock of Covid-19, and warned that the situation will worsen.

In a statement, it says:

“It is to be expected that production will decline sharply from March onwards due to corona”

A little bit of context about the -15.6% print of 'Germany Factory Orders MoM' pic.twitter.com/itmSMr07Op

Demand for heavy-duty German tools, machinery, vehicles and other equipment slumped particularly sharply in March.

Orders for these capital goods fell over 22%, while intermediate goods [used to make something else] fell 7.5%. Consumer goods, though, only dropped 1.3%.

OUCH! #Germany March factory orders fall 15.6% MoM vs -10% MoM expected and biggest slump since the series began. Capital goods orders fall 22.6% MoM, Consumer goods orders fall 1.3% MoM. Basic goods orders fall 7.5% MoM. pic.twitter.com/JtLdNUXyr1

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Domestic orders decreased by 14.8% and foreign orders fell by 16.1% in March 2020 on the previous month.

New orders from the euro area went down 17.9%, and new orders from other countries decreased by 15.0% compared with February 2020.

Continue reading...




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Bank of England warns UK faces historic recession; US jobless claims hit 3.1m - business live

Britain’s central bank warns that the spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it could wipe 14% off UK GDP this year

Time to recap

Britain is facing its worst recession in 300 years, according to the latest scenario from the Bank of England. The BoE estimates that GDP will plunge by 25% this quarter, with unemployment hitting 9%, due to the abrupt halt to activity under the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

New unemployment claims filed in the past 7 weeks:

Week ending...
March 21: 3.3 million
March 28: 6.9 million (**a record**)
April 4: 6.6 million
April 11: 5.2 million
April 18: 4.4 million
April 25: 3.8 million
May 2: 3.2 million

Total: Nearly 33.5 million Americans w/out work pic.twitter.com/KZonDSSPG7

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 3.2m, down from the previous week’s figure of 3.8m and half the peak recorded 5 weeks ago, but roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. These figures support estimates of the April unemployment figure, to be released tomorrow, to reach a shocking 16%.

“Markets, however, are now looking beyond the employment data and forward to the potential recovery. With some US states now beginning to reopen for business, investors will be watching closely to see how quickly employees return to work and how rapidly economic activity bounces back.

A late rally has lifted the UK stock market to its highest level in a week.

The FTSE 100 has just closed 82 points higher at 5935, a gain of 1.4%.

The International Monetary Fund says it has approved requests for emergency pandemic aid totalling $18bn, from 50 of its 189 members, and is working through another 50 requests.

Reuters has more details;

The IMF’s executive board was working through requests at record speed and would consider a request from Egypt for both emergency financing and a stand-by lending arrangement on May 11, spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in an online briefing.

“It’s an IMF moving at an unprecedented speed in an unprecedented way to meet this unprecedented challenge which we’re all facing,” he said, noting the Fund had also temporarily suspended payments on IMF debts for 25 of the poorest countries.

The gloom in the luxury goods sector is deepening even though some countries have started to relax their coronavirus lockdowns.

“As consumers slowly emerge from lockdowns, the way they see the world will have changed and luxury brands will need to adapt.

Safety in store will be mandatory, paired with the magic of the luxury experience: creative ways to attract customers to store, or to get the product to the customer, will make the difference.”

Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management, doesn’t share the exuberance in the markets today.

“The US labor market is in the worst position since the Great Depression and is unlikely to improve sustainably anytime soon. Until widespread testing, an effective therapy, and a vaccine are in place, any improvement in employment is likely to be temporary.

Premature efforts to reopen economies undermine our progress in controlling the pandemic and risk extending the duration of the downturn.”

The Nasdaq has shrugged off Covid-19 fears because investors are rushing into “giant tech names that are considered more resilient in this crisis”, explained Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM.

That includes Amazon (up 27% this year) and Microsoft (up 16%).

Remarkably, the US Nasdaq index has now caught up all this year’s losses.

The tech-focused share index is now flat for 2020, thanks to strong recoveries in major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq is positive for the year. pic.twitter.com/HtkHzXAzEd

As expected, the US stock market has indeed jumped in early trading.

Jobless claims should be back below 1M by the 2nd or 3rd week of June; the rate of decay is quite consistent. pic.twitter.com/OtOoeir28P

European stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains, despite the latest grim US jobs data.

Wall Street is expected to open higher too, with the Dow up around 1% in pre-market trading.

Repeat after me.

Equities are forward looking jobless claims backward.

Therefore entirely normal at times for them to move in different directions. And yet we get the same old headlines asking why.

The spectre of unemployment is haunting America - but in some states more than others:

Jobless Claims Since March 20th as a Percent of Total State Employment: pic.twitter.com/me0mbMFvQj

Before the Covid-19 crisis began, America had never lost a million jobs in a single week before.

It has now suffered seven consecutive weeks of massive job losses, as firms have slashed staff under the coronavirus lockdown.

33.5 million Americans have filed jobless claims over the last 7 weeks. https://t.co/WIOd3ZzpVq pic.twitter.com/8vqdipxopI

Our US business editor Dominic Rushe says some US states are really struggling to cope with the unprecedented surge in unemployment.

He writes:

The pace of layoffs has overwhelmed state unemployment systems across the country. Over a million people in North Carolina have now made unemployment insurance benefit claims, equivalent to 20% of the state’s workforce.

Some 4 million have applied in California and the state’s jobless benefits fund is “very close” to running out, governor Gavin Newsom said this week.

Related: Coronavirus: three million more Americans file for unemployment

Some instant reaction to the latest US jobless report:

The effects of the #coronavirusrecession continue to ripple through the economy. In the week ending in May 2, 3.2 million workers filed for initial unemployment benefits, according to the @USDOL’s Weekly #unemploymentinsurance (UI) claims report. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/XUFFtG3Rpp

3.17 MILLION people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. Almost 33.5 MILLION filing jobless claims in 7 weeks. 1 in 5 Americans unemployed. These are lives and family shaken, devastated.

Though still tremendously elevated, the 3.2 mln new unempl claims continues downward trend as initial surge passes. But # of Americans receiving jobless benefits, pierced 22 mln. pic.twitter.com/b4SF5apZR6

Newsflash: Another 3.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobless crisis rages.

That’s down from 3.8m in the previous week, but still another awful number.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,169,000 for the week ending 5/2 (-677,000).

Insured unemployment was 22,647,000 for the week ending 4/25 (+4,636,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

Stocks are continuing to rise in London, seemingly lifted by hopes that some UK lockdown restrictions will be eased soon.

The FTSE 100 is now up 63 points or 1.1% at 5917, after the government confirmed that Boris Johnson will reveal his strategy on Sunday evening:

NEW: Boris Johnson will be giving a statement at 7pm on Sunday discussing the route out of the #COVID19 lockdown and the government's next steps.

With oil, mining and banking stocks all in the green, the FTSE added another 0.9% as the session went on, sticking its nose across 5900 for the first time in a week. This would suggest that investors have swallowed the bitter 14% contraction in 2020 pill offered up by the BoE, thanks to the spoonful of sugar that is the expectation of a 15% rebound in 2021.

Elsewhere the markets were just as perky, investors continuing to express their relief at the various ongoing and soon-to-be unveiled lockdown-easing measures around the globe. The DAX passed 10700 as it climbed 0.8%, while the CAC struck 4470 following a 50 point increase.

Our economic editor Larry Elliott says the BoE is pinning its hopes on a V-shaped recovery to GDP - and pushing banks to do their bit.

One of the key messages from the Bank to the high street lenders was that they stand to lose more by not lending than they will by lending freely, because there will be more long-term scarring of the economy, more companies going bust and more losses for them to swallow. At his press conference, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was ramming home this point to lenders at at every opportunity.

Forecasting is tough at the best of times: in the current circumstances – where there is uncertainty about how fast restrictions will be lifted, how consumers will behave, and whether there will be a second wave of infection – it is all but impossible.

All that can really be said is that the risks to the Bank’s scenario are skewed heavily to the downside. Threadneedle Street decided against providing more stimulus at this week’s meeting, but it is only a question of time.

Related: Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle

New: BoE governor Andrew Bailey tells me while it's unlikely, he doesn't rule out cutting UK interest rates into negative territory (unlike M Carney):
"Previous governors didn't have in mind this scenario we're in today. And I think it's wise not to rule anything off the table."

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has told Sky News that the slump in the UK economy this year is “unique, certainly in modern times”.

But he’s also optimistic that activity is likely to recover “much more quickly” than after a normal recession:

.@bankofengland Governor Andrew Bailey says despite the "unique" challenges of #coronavirus, he believes the lifting of the lockdown will see activity in the economy recover 'quicker than it would if was a normal recession.'

Read more here: https://t.co/xVqko9FY6J pic.twitter.com/heyAfBtIMQ

It’s been a busy morning for telecoms news too.

Cable operator Virgin Media and mobile network O2 are merging, to create a £31bn “national champion” to challenge BT and Sky in the UK.

Related: Virgin Media and O2 owners confirm £31bn mega-merger in UK

Related: BT suspends dividend to free up 5G and broadband investment

Here’s Anna Stewart of CNN on the Bank of England’s forecasts:

Bank of England says the economy will contract by 25% in the second quarter. Yes it’s bad.

However, it’s far better than OBR forecast of -35% a couple of weeks ago.

Plus take a look at the projected recovery... pic.twitter.com/PMlsLDAPXe

Sharp rise in unemployment - expected to hit 9% in Q2.

However, compare that to :
WH economist Kevin Hassett has warned of 20% unemployment in April

London’s Evening Standard points out that the Covid-19 slump will be three times as severe as after the financial crisis of 2008.

Today’s ⁦@EveningStandard⁩ on the plans to stagger the rush hour and the latest Bank Of England forecasts pic.twitter.com/A811vwVaTL

Covid-19 lockdowns has already pushed British Airway’s parent company into the red.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

British Airways owner International Airlines Group made a £1.5bn loss in the first three months of the year, as chief executive Willie Walsh said it would take three years for passenger demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

IAG has halted 94% of its flights in response to travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, causing it to bleed cash. Last week, British Airways set out plans to make up to 12,000 of its staff redundant because of the global collapse in air travel.

Related: British Airways owner reports £1.5bn loss due to coronavirus

Despite the Bank of England’s gloomy prognosis for this year, stocks and the pound are a little higher this morning.

That’s partly because the BoE expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, after a 14% contraction this year [although arithmetically that still leaves the economy smaller]

The Bank of England’s new governor, Andrew Bailey, has hinted that the BoE could expand its stimulus programme at its next meeting in June.

Bloomberg’s Jill Ward has the details:

Two of the BOE’s nine policy makers wanted to immediately increase bond purchases -- the main policy tool now that the key interest rate is near zero -- by 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) in a decision announced early Thursday. The rest agreed downside risks “might necessitate further monetary policy action.”

Bailey, who earlier pledged “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the economy during the coronavirus crisis, told reporters that the fact no action was taken this time doesn’t rule out a response soon.

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that policy makers could expand monetary stimulus as soon as next month as the U.K. faces an economic slump that could be the worst in Europe"https://t.co/iQK3nKt2ef pic.twitter.com/XMtpY5HHsH

Trade unions are urging the UK government not to make the economic downturn worse by turning off its furlough scheme too quickly.

The TUC says that today’s statistics showing that two-thirds of firms have tapped the Jobs Retention scheme shows it is vital.

Around half of the workforce are working from home, but varies drastically by industry.

A big majority of workers in the information and communication and professional sectors are working from home, whereas it's a small minority in other industries. pic.twitter.com/QDN3wcbIVk

Around a quarter (23%) of businesses have ceased or paused trading.

This rises to around 80% in the arts and accommodation and food sectors. pic.twitter.com/IsHQKI5wYF

UK banks have approved an additional 8,550 government-backed business loans worth £1.4bn within the past week, but are still struggling to increase the pace of approvals amid rising demand.

The original coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS) has now lent around £5.5bn to 33,812 small and medium sized businesses since the programme was launched on 23 March.

“Bank staff have worked tirelessly over the past week to provide businesses with the finance they need, delivering another £1.4 billion of lending under the CBIL scheme, on top of over £2 billion in Bounce Back Loans targeted at smaller firms and sole traders.”

Hat-tip to Ben Chu of the Independent, for showing just how grim the Bank of England’s forecasts are:

The Bank of of England's scenario for UK GDP for the full year of 2020 is...

-14%

That would be the worst year for the economy since 1706 according to the Bank's own historical dataset pic.twitter.com/aKflRovluH

We have estimates of quarterly UK GDP going back to 1920

The Bank's scenario has -25% in the second quarter of 2020.

That would be by far the worst seen: pic.twitter.com/7SH34zwqPW

The Treasury Committee chairman Mel Stride has ordered Barclays to explain why customers are still having trouble accessing bounce back loans - which are meant to protect UK businesses from this year’s slump.

The 100% government-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme is meant to get cash to struggling businesses far more quickly than other programmes. Any impediments put those firms at risk, Stride said:

“Issues that hamper this are very frustrating to customers and may in some cases threaten business survival.

“I raised the problems that some people were having in accessing the Barclays online system with their CEO during our public committee hearing on Monday and was assured then that the system was able to cope well.

Just in: nearly a quarter of UK firms have temporarily closed due to the pandemic, and two-thirds are furloughing some staff.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics. It just reported that 23% of businesses who responded to its latest survey said they had “temporarily closed or paused trading” last month.

The Bank of England has also shown how its scenario compare to City economists’ forecasts -- where the range is rather, er, broad:

Here's my fave chart from this morning's Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - it's the all-important "nobody knows" chart. pic.twitter.com/vsozkW5fC6

The key message from the Bank of England today is that activity in the UK has fallen sharply, and is going to continue to plunge during this quarter.

Explaining why it thinks the UK will shrink 14% this year, it says:

Official data are sparse at this stage, but high‑frequency indicators suggest that consumer spending has fallen steeply since March. In large part, that reflects the impact of both enforced and voluntary social distancing, with some additional drag from lower incomes and confidence about the outlook. In those areas most affected, such as tourism and eating out, indicators including aircraft departures and data on the number of seated diners at restaurants suggest that spending has all but come to a halt.

The closure of businesses and widespread moves to working from home have reduced the number of journeys by car and public transport substantially. In addition, spending on many durables is likely to have been delayed. One area that has proved stronger is spending on food, as households substitute spending at supermarkets for eating out. Nevertheless, consumer spending in aggregate has fallen very significantly. In 2020 Q2, it is expected to be almost 30% lower than in 2019 Q4.

There are also signs that UK house prices are starting to slide, amid the lockdown.

Halifax has reported that prices fell by 0.6% in April, on top of a 0.3% dip in March:

The #Halifax reported #UK #house #prices dipped 0.6% month-on-month in April after a revised fall of 0.3% in March. The annual rate of increase moderated to 2.7% in April from 3.0% in March and a peak of 4.1% in January (which had been the highest level since February 2018).

The Covid-19 crisis has prompted Norway’s central bank to slash its interest rates to zero.

In a surprise move, the Norges Banks just lowered its key borrowing rate from 0.25% to 0.0%, a record low.

Norges Bank now predicts the mainland economy, which excludes oil and gas output, will contract by 5.2% in 2020, down from a March 13 forecast of 0.4% growth. It expects growth of 3.0% in 2021, up from 1.3% seen earlier.

BREAKING: #Norway's central bank delivers surprise rate cut to 0% in a unanimous decision. Don't envisage making further rate cuts but outlook and balance of risks imply very expansionary monetary policy stance. #Norges

#Norway's central bank lowers its benchmark rate to 0.00%! pic.twitter.com/e0pLjZzaSR

My colleague Richard Partington writes that the Bank of England has sounded the alarm about the slump in the UK economy this year:

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 25% this spring and unemployment more than double as the coronavirus pandemic brings the country to an effective standstill.

Leaving interest rates on hold as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures used to contain its spread.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

The Resolution Foundation think tank is concerned that the Bank of England predicts such a sharp jump in unemployment, and only a slow recovery in the labour market:

That 14 per cent hit to the economy is equivalent to around £300 billion, or £9,000 for every family in Britain, and shows why the Bank and Government are right to have protected households as much as possible with policies such as the Job Retention Scheme.

While the Bank’s scenario implies the UK economy will return towards its pre-pandemic growth path in 2021, it projects unemployment to remain above its pre-pandemic path until at least 2023 – after reaching a 25-year high of 9 per cent this year.

Stark unemployment forecast from the Bank of England this morning, and expects 25% contraction in the economy in the quarter to June. pic.twitter.com/pHQZPwXHCN

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, fears the UK economy could shrink even more sharply than the Bank of England has forecast.

The Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year, when the UK-EU withdrawal agreement ends, creates added uncertainty, she writes:

“Despite the stark numbers issued by the Bank of England today, additional pressure on the economy is likely. Some social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus, with people also remaining reluctant to socialise and spend. That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.

“Looking at the medium term, beyond the impact of reduced investment, other forces could to be in play dampening future productivity. Supply chains are likely to be reconfigured in light of this crisis, potentially increasing geographical diversification and reducing efficiency in order to increase resilience. ‘Just in time’ operations are also likely to be a thing of the past, further eroding productivity. On the other hand, we could see significant consolidation among SMEs, lifting productivity among the long tail of underperforming businesses.

The only good news today is that the Bank expects this economic bombshell to be short-lived, and for the economy to bounce back rapidly. However, the MPC itself concedes it is flying blind to a large extent, warning that a pandemic like this is “especially difficult to quantify”.

“While the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy stance at today’s meeting, it is surely only a matter of time before they decide to. The 7-2 split on whether to increase asset purchases indicates a continued dovish bias from certain voting members.

With the Bank hoovering up gilts equivalent to those issued since the additional £200 billion in quantitative easing was announced, it will run out of firepower to support government spending within in months. Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Bank of England to delay its much-anticipated bank climate stress tests.

The central bank has concluded that UK banks have enough to deal with, without calculating how they are positioned to handle the climate emergency (a key concern for former governor Mark Carney).

“Recognizing current pressures on firms, and in light of the responses to the December 2019 Discussion Paper on the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario, the PRC and FPC have agreed to postpone the launch of the exercise until at least mid-2021.

This delay reflects a desire to maintain the ambitious scope of the exercise, whilst giving firms enough time to invest sufficiently in their capabilities to allow them to deliver to a high standard.”

The Bank’s new Financial Stability Report says UK households have entered the lockdown in a stronger position than before the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to substantial support including payment holidays on mortgages and credit cards.

However, the Bank warned that the sharp economic downturn would put pressure on personal finances and that it would have to keep a close eye on potential risks that may emerge once those payment holidays expire. That could include a fresh wave of customers attempting to refinance their debt.

There is some good news.... the Bank of England is confident that Britain’s banks can ride out the Covid-19 pandemic, and handle a 14% plunge in GDP this year.

It says the banking sector is sufficiently capitalised to cover losses during the outbreak, especially as the BoE is providing more support to the sector.

Businesses and households will need to borrow to get through this period. We want banks and building societies to expand lending. We have tested the major UK banks. They are strong enough to keep lending, which will support the economy and limit losses to themselves.

We are offering more long-term funding to banks that increase their lending.

Here’s a table outlining the Bank of England’s new Covid-19 scenario.

As you can see, it shows UK GDP shrinking 14% this year, business investment crumbling by 26%, household spending down 14%, and average earnings down 2%:

The Bank of England has produced a 20-minute video, explaining today’s monetary policy decisions and its new scenario for how the UK economy will shrink this year:

Reuters points out that the Bank of England is predicting the worst economic slump in centuries this year -- and a very strong recovery in 2021:

The Bank of England held off further stimulus measures but said it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus hammering which could cause the country’s biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 before a bounceback in 2021.

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at its all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at £645bn.

Bank of England gives a big "V" to economists who think there'll be a lasting hit from the COVID-19 slump.

Illustrative scenario shows 14% drop in GDP in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021 of... 15%! pic.twitter.com/Wf5Z4Rp9Ds

In another startling forecast, the Bank of England predicts that the global economy could contract by 20% this quarter.

It warns that the coronavirus pandemic, and the lockdown measures introduced to slow it, are hitting economic activity extremely hard:

The spread of the virus and the measures taken to protect public health have caused a substantial reduction in activity around the world. Survey indicators such as the output components of PMIs have fallen to record‑low levels since the start of the year, and suggest that many countries have experienced extremely sharp falls in activity.

Bank staff estimate that UK‑weighted world GDP declined by around 4% in Q1 and could fall by over 20% in Q2. World trade has also declined significantly, and is expected to contract by around twice as much as global GDP in 2020. While many major countries have introduced wage subsidy schemes to reduce job losses, unemployment has increased markedly around the world and many more employees are working less than usual.

Despite the government’s efforts, the Bank of England predicts that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months.

Its new Covid-19 scenario suggests the UK jobless rate could soon spike to 9% - up from 4% at present - even though the government is encouraging firms to furlough staff.

As activity has fallen, the number of people in work has dropped sharply. It is likely that the Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has materially reduced the number of redundancies. Early data suggest that applications for furlough have been received from 800,000 companies covering over six million jobs.

The number of people furloughed might be a little lower, though, as some could have more than one furloughed job. While the CJRS has significantly limited job losses, the flow of new Universal Credit benefit claims and early indicators of redundancies suggest that unemployment has risen sharply over the past couple of months. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9% in Q2.

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year.

It has drawn up a new scenario, showing how the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt growth.

The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world. Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.

The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently. Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly.

Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation is expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Some early breaking news: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at their record lows, at its policy meeting today.

The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April. Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.

Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased. According to the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, companies’ sales are expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower.

Continue reading...




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'It's a mistresspiece!': the 14-hour film about forgotten female directors

Mark Cousins’ latest encyclopedic romp is a glorious enterprise that unearths footage from some of the greatest film-makers ever – all of them women

A perfect lockdown gift has landed, one which might have sounded daunting in ordinary times: a 14-hour documentary about female directors, which goes live from next week on BFI Player. This glorious enterprise unearths footage from some of the greatest movie-makers of this century and the last – all of them female. At the same time, the BFI is showing 36 of the hundreds of films mentioned, so that viewers can enjoy full immersion over weeks, possibly awarding themselves a degree in, say, The Cinema of the Second Sex afterwards.

Narrated by women including Tilda Swinton and Thandie Newton, Women Make Film – A New Road Movie Through Cinema is the latest encyclopedic romp from the Northern Irish film historian and documentary-maker Mark Cousins, who previously directed the 15-hour television series The Story of Film: An Odyssey, in 2011. The new documentary will be released in palatable chunks over five weeks from 18 May, and aims to open a conversation on the lost legacy of women behind the movie camera.

Related: Angry young women: how radical, female film-makers defined the spirit of '68

Continue reading...




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ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) - Direct Plan - Dividend

Category Other Scheme - FoF Domestic
NAV 52.9956
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund - Unclaimed Redemption Investor Education

Category Debt Scheme - Liquid Fund
NAV 100.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund - Unclaimed Dividend Investor Education

Category Debt Scheme - Liquid Fund
NAV 100.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Taurus Investor Education Pool - Unclaimed Redemption - Growth

Category Money Market
NAV 10.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020




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Taurus Investor Education Pool - Unclaimed Dividend - Growth

Category Money Market
NAV 10.0000
Repurchase Price
Sale Price
Date 08-May-2020