Sunday, November 10 is expected to see plenty of sunshine, with the high to be near 21°C/69°F and the low to be near 18°C/65°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NNE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 62%. Sunrise will be at 6.44am and sunset will be at […]

Monday, November 11 is expected to see some sunny periods with a possible shower overnight, with the high to be near 23°C/73°F and the low to be near 21°C/70°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 64%. Sunrise will be at 6.45am […]

Tuesday November 12 is expected to be windy, with the high to be near 24°C/75°F and the low to be near 20°C/68°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SSW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 78%. Sunrise will be at 6:46am and sunset will be at 5:20pm. High […]

Wednesday November 13 is expected to be windy, with the high to be near 21°C/70°F and the low to be near 17°C/63°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NNW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 66%. Sunrise will be at 6:47am and sunset will be at 5:19pm. High […]

Total media ad spend in Russia to drop nearly 50%   March 30, 2022 (New York, NY) – Insider Intelligence expects the ongoing war in Ukraine to have a significant […]

Fossil Fuels Expert Roundtable: Forecasting Forum 2018 12 February 2018 — 2:00PM TO 5:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 18 December 2017 Chatham House, London

This forum will present the latest thinking from senior researchers on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuels investment and markets in the year ahead. The first session will assess the various factors keeping oil and gas prices from bouncing back and will consider conditions and political developments that could influence markets in the year ahead. The second session will assess the future of the power sector and what this means for the fossil fuels industry.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Forecasting Forum 2019 29 January 2019 — 2:00PM TO 5:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 December 2018 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

This annual forum, previously held as part of the Fossil Fuels Expert Roundtable but now re-branded under the Energy Transitions Roundtable, presents the latest thinking from the Energy, Environment and Research Department’s senior research team on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuels investment and markets in the year ahead. This year, the forum will have three sessions:

Session 1 | 14:05 - 15:00 | Climate Trends

In December, a ‘playbook’ to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement was agreed by 196 countries at the UN’s COP24 in Poland. Despite this success, challenges surrounding common reporting requirements, degree-pathways to pursue, increasing ambition and the implementation of NDCs still remain. In this session, Pete Betts, former Head of International Climate and Energy at the UK Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, will reflect on developments in the climate agenda and what action should be taken both in the UK and internationally against the backdrop of Brexit.

Session 2 | 15:15 - 16:15 | An Outlook for Oil in 2019

The future of crude oil prices for 2019 is perhaps more uncertain than it has been for several years. Following a period between 2014-17 when over-supply banished geopolitics from influencing the oil price, the market appears to be struggling to price political risk. Recently the OPEC Plus agreement was renewed in an effort to curtail production and defend prices but its effectiveness is in question as the shale technology revolution in the US continues to add to global supply - but for how long? Meanwhile, US relations with Saudi Arabia remain uncertain in the aftermath of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi: how might Saudi oil policy unfold? Similarly, how might Iran respond to President Trump’s unilateral abrogation of the JCPOA agreement? In this session, Paul Stevens looks at the geopolitical factors that might influence crude oil prices in 2019.

Session 3 | 16:30 - 17:30 | An Outlook for Coal

The rapid phase-out of coal-fired power stations is crucial to the delivery of the goals of the Paris Agreement and to the safeguarding of clean air and water and public health. Some policy and economic developments show that the coal sector is in structural decline, and there is growing international momentum behind coal phase-out. At the same time, many of the largest coal trading countries and companies continue to argue the short-term profitability of the sector but at what cost? This session will explore the national and international risks that continued investment in coal present and the developments that could change this in the year ahead.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Forecasting Forum 2020 17 February 2020 — 2:00PM TO 5:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 15 January 2020 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

The Forecasting Forum 2020 will present the latest thinking from the Chatham House Energy, Environment and Resources Department’s senior research team on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuel and energy investments and markets in the year ahead.

14:00 - 14:30 | Introduction and Climate Risks Outlook

In the last decade, following the financial crisis, the literature on systemic risks has grown. Systemic risks occur when complex, non-linear, interconnected systems fail, often through relatively small perturbations, as their impacts cascade and amplify across the system. Within this context, climate change is a ‘threat multiplier’ with the risks increasing in scale, frequency and magnitude. Just as complex systems can pass thresholds and tip from a functional state to a non-functional state, so can societies and people’s attitudes. Together risk cascades or systemic risks and attitudinal tipping points have the potential to rapidly change the way the world works.

Professor Tim Benton will open the Forecasting Forum 2020 with reflections on what this might mean for the pace and linearity of the fossil fuel transition.

14:30 - 15:30 | Session 1: An Outlook on Oil Prices in 2020

In this session, Professor Paul Stevens will argue that the recent events associated with the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani have exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to political events and brought ‘geopolitics’ back into global oil prices. Up to 2014, geopolitics played a key role in determining oil prices in the paper markets where perceptions and expectations ruled. By 2014, the world was so oversupplied with real oil barrels that the oil price collapsed and little attention was given to geopolitical events as geopolitics became marginalized in the determination of crude oil prices. However, recent events in the Middle East suggest that prices will become increasingly volatile but, at the same time, benefit from a rising geopolitical premium.

15:45 - 16:45 | Session 2: An Outlook for Energy in 2020

Recent years have brought significant disruption to the European power sector. Not only are many of Europe’s major utilities restructuring their businesses in light of decarbonization and technological developments but Brexit has distracted - and detracted from - efforts to create more systemic energy linkages between the UK and the rest of Europe. During his presentation, Antony Froggatt will draw on his ongoing research to outline what he believes are the prevailing challenges and opportunities for the European power sector over the coming year while highlighting some of the most significant global trends.

Please note, attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Forecasting forum 2021 28 January 2021 — 12:30PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 21 January 2021 Online

Speakers explore the dynamics that will likely affect fossil fuel demand, energy investments and markets in the year ahead.

The Forecasting Forum 2021 presents the latest thinking from the Energy, Environment and Resources Programme’s senior research team and colleagues on the dynamics that will likely affect fossil fuel demand, energy investments and markets in the year ahead.

Focus is given to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the first 100 days of the new Biden administration in the US, and the run-up to COP26. The extraordinary developments over the last year have demonstrated the need consider and discuss a wide range of possible futures and the factors that affect them to help improve system resilience and increase stability, whilst achieving sustainability.

For the first time, this annual event was run online and consisted of a panel discussion on what the year ahead might hold.

Forecasting forum 2022 2 February 2022 — 2:00PM TO 3:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 January 2022 Online

The Environment and Society Programme’s senior research team will discuss the emerging geopolitical trends that may impact energy markets and investments in 2022.

The Forecasting Forum 2022 presents the latest thinking from the Environment and Society Programme’s senior research team on the dynamics that will likely affect fossil fuel demand, energy investments and markets in the year ahead.

The event will discuss a wide range of emerging geopolitical trends that may impact energy markets and investments in 2022, including continuing uncertainty around COVID-19, fuel price changes, US political direction and progress of President Biden’s climate agenda, and growing shareholder activism within some of the largest energy companies. Moreover, the implications of pledges made at COP26 will start to materialize, ahead of a new climate scenarios report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the COP27 summit in Egypt. In this respect, the panel will assess whether 2022 could prove to be a decisive year for the energy transition. 

I am gratified to see the continuing adoption of Forecast Value Added by organizations worldwide. FVA is an easy to understand and easy to apply approach for identifying bad practices in your forecasting process. And I'm particularly gratified to see coverage of FVA in two new books, which the authors [...]

The post Vandeput's Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting (book excerpt) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

What makes something easy (or difficult) to forecast? This question was answered by Prof. Rob Hyndman on the Forecasting Impact podcast (February 6, 2021), and it's worth a look at his response. Rob was recently named a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is someone who is known [...]

The post Hyndman's 5 Conditions for Easy Forecasting appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

M6 Financial Forecasting Competition The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center has announced the M6 Financial Forecasting Competition, to begin in February 2022. This will be a "live" competition running through February 2023, with a focus on forecasts of stock price (returns) and risk, and on investment decisions based on the forecasts. [...]

The post M6 Financial Forecasting Competition announced appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

I've never been much of a fan of forecasting approaches to intermittent demand. In situations like intermittent demand (or other areas where we have little hope of reasonably accurate forecasts), my thinking is "why bother?" If we can't expect to solve the problem with forecasting, we need a different approach. [...]

The post Intermittent Demand Forecasting (new book by Boylan and Syntetos) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

An analysis of crystals in lava from the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa has revealed an unknown magma reservoir within the volcano, which could extend forecasts of eruptions from minutes to months

An analysis of crystals in lava from the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa has revealed an unknown magma reservoir within the volcano, which could extend forecasts of eruptions from minutes to months

The number of people worldwide directly killed by antibiotic resistance will rise to 1.9 million a year by 2050, according to the most comprehensive study so far

THE weather bureau said it was not caught off guard by the intensity of the storm that tore through southeast Queensland on Sunday. An emergency situation was in place on the Sunshine Coast after the wild weather hit.

Total greenhouse gas emissions from Alberta's oilsands have remained relatively flat for the last few years but could climb yet again in 2024 as the industry ratchets up oil production, according to a new report released Thursday.

We’re expanding flood forecasting to over 100 countries and making our breakthrough AI model available to researchers and partners.

An analysis of crystals in lava from the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa has revealed an unknown magma reservoir within the volcano, which could extend forecasts of eruptions from minutes to months

The government's official forecaster raises its prediction for UK growth in 2024 and 2025 but reduces it for later years.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that U.S. natural gas consumption reached a record high in January at 118 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). A burst of cold weather increased demand for heating and reduced natural gas production, which led to high inventory withdrawals.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) decreased its forecast for U.S. coal exports following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the resulting closure of the Port of Baltimore. In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA reduced its forecasts for U.S. coal exports for April by 33% and for May by 20% from previous forecasts.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will host a webinar on Wednesday, October 9, to discuss price, consumption, and expenditure trends for major heating fuels for U.S. households for the upcoming winter. EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook includes U.S. national and regional forecasts for electric heat, natural gas, heating oil, and propane. We will publish the Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts on Tuesday, October 8, as part of the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Its latest edition of the report released on Monday also warned that the world is moving toward recession

Sinks $25 billion in the process

London : Abacus, 2005.

Social Marketing Predictions for 2020-2025

‘Consolidation to be slow despite remedial measures'

National Bureau of Economic Research