forecast

Advisory #003A Forecast Track [kmz] - Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:58 GMT




forecast

Advisory #003A Forecast [shp] - Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)

Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:22 GMT




forecast

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024


000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 




forecast

Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024


000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 




forecast

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI?

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for PPI

PPI Y/Y

  • 2.4% (11%)
  • 2.3% (68%) - consensus
  • 2.2% (16%)
  • 2.0% (5%)

PPI M/M

  • 0.4% (2%)
  • 0.3% (13%)
  • 0.2% (74%) - consensus
  • 0.1% (7%)
  • 0.0% (2%)
  • -0.1% (2%)

Core PPI Y/Y

  • 3.1% (12%)
  • 3.0% (47%) - consensus
  • 2.9% (35%)
  • 2.7% (6%)

Core PPI M/M

  • 0.3% (57%) - consensus
  • 0.2% (40%)
  • 0.1% (3%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline PPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that the expectations are skewed to the downside, so a higher than expected reading would be taken as more hawkish and likely give the US Dollar another boost. Conversely, a soft print could trigger a pullback.

The US Dollar remains in an uptrend as the market continues to price out the rate cuts expected in 2025. Right now we have another 25 bps cut priced for December and just two 25 bps cuts priced in 2025 which is already much lower than the Fed's projection of four.

Therefore, there's still a couple of rate cuts to price out in 2025 if the data continues to run hot, but at that point we would need a real acceleration in inflation to have the market pricing in a rate hike. For now, the bar for rate hikes is really high as the maximum the Fed is willing to do is to pause the easing cycle.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.




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Dallas - Business Forecast Luncheon 2005 (The University of Chicago)


Today the University of Chicago held its Business Forecast 2005 at the Mansion on Turtle Creek in Dallas. Excellent talks. Prognosticators were:

Robert Z. Aliber Professor of International Economics and Finance Emeritus, Chicago GSB. Director, Center for Studies in International Finance. Formerly Senior Economic Advisor, Agency for Economic Development, U.S. Department of State.

and

Harvey Rosenblum Senior Vice President and Director of Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Economic Policy Advisor to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Associate Economist for the Federal Open Market Committee.

My key notes from Harvey Rosenblum's talk (my key takeaways: be thankful, be wary):

  • Shocks that happened since the late 90s - surprised they haven't sent us into a deep depression
  • Y2K overspending and then drop in spending
  • Loss of wealth due to stock market crash
  • 2001 World Trade Center
  • 2001 Corporate scandals (Enron, MCI, etc.) drove up cost of capital
  • Sarbanes-Oxley caused unintended consequences where all public companies now have to bear significant costs of implementing S-O compliance, etc. where only 2% of public companies may have problems
  • Iraq war
  • It is surprising we (United States) are not in a depression
  • Credits attributed to good monetary policy and fiscal policy
  • Additionally deregulation has provided the US markets with flexibility to weather these shocks
  • Growth 3-4%, inflation low, unemployment dropping
  • President Bush, while Time's Man of the Year, didn't get enough credit for just in time fiscal policy
  • Long bond rate "conundrum" exists, but the economy appears to be in a zone of price stability
  • Interest yield curves are flat, but history shows that if these tip then 1 year after that there will be a recession
  • Need to watch yield curve. Some concern if Fed follows historical raise rate policies there will be problems.

My key notes from Robert Aliber's talk (my key takeaways: international policy is biggest issue, trade deficit bigger concern than budget deficit, international shocks translate into the United States importing issues as the trade deficit):

  • $600 billion hole is trade deficit
  • 25 year slide of US dollar against Yen & Swiss (which basically means Europe)
  • Thus, we have sharp slide of dollar yet the trade deficit is increasing?? (rarely happens)
  • Perspective on why this is happening. When financial crisis occurs in other countries, it shows up as an import to our trade deficit (i.e., our deficit grows)
  • China's investment boom slowing because of evergreen finance (essentially loans being made, accruing interest, but funny money since no one is paying interest)
  • Going to be a problem in the future.
  • Turning back to international trade as a whole (not specific to China), the asset price bubble may burst if US puts in import controls.
  • Housing market may have some issues. Did we see the Las Vegas numbers?

One question I had in my mind after this talk was that I understood venture capitalists in the States to be eager to do deals in China. That said, given what I heard today, I would be wary of the propsect of things going south for investments in China in a timeframe that would be shorter than the investment horizon of a VC.

Steve Shu
Managing Director
S4 Management Group
Email: sshu@s4management.com
Web: http://www.s4management.com




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According to the business intelligence report, emphasis among podcast production studios on the distribution and production of their content on audio platforms such as Spotify, coupled with emergence of high bandwidth, and personal digital assistants are augmenting the growth of global podcasting market size.

Increasing penetration of internet as well as smartphones, inclination towards audio and music content, growing acceptance of audio broadcasting content, and escalating demand for podcasts are stimulating the global podcasting market outlook. Citing an instance, the IDC (International Data Corporation) recorded shipment of around 369.8 million units of smartphones by vendors in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Leading players that define global podcasting industry trends are TuneIn Inc., Stitcher Radio, Spotify AB, SoundCloud, Entercom Communications Corporation, Pandora Media LLC, Megaphone LLC, iHeartMedia Inc., and Apple Inc.

On the contrary, storage space issues and high costs associated with podcasting are expected to impede the industry expansion throughout the analysis timeframe.




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Modest Increase Forecast in Canadian Pork Production in 2025 and Higher Prices

Farmscape for November 12, 2024

A Guelph based hog market analyst is forecasting a modest increase in Canadian pork production in 2025 and higher prices.
“The Competitive Status of the Canadian Pork Industry,” was the topic of a keynote address last week at Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2024 in Saskatoon.
Kevin Grier, with Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting, says Canada is the sixth largest pork producer in the world but the fourth largest exporter so, as the old saying goes, it punches above its weight.

Quote-Kevin Grier-Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting:
In terms of the outlook for 2025 I'm expecting, based on the last Hogs and Pigs Report, to have a modest increase in production in 2025.
We have less beef because of where we are at in the cattle cycle and we're going to have less beef next year and the year after that so pork should be able to make competitive gains in the meat case or on the menu at restaurants so, in some respects, the pork industry is probably hoping that pork can gain market share at the expense of beef.
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But, probably and hopefully for the sake of producers, we should see an increased price in 2025 compared to 2024.
Again, part of our keys is the fact that we are a low-cost producer at the farm level.
According to data from InterPIG, Canada is always among the lowest cost producers in the world, a little bit higher cost than Brazil or the United States, but always right there among the most competitive in terms of producer production costs.
We may not be a low-cost producer at the packer level but we compete in other ways, through increased quality specifications, service, that sort of thing so from the farm to the packer we are competitive industry and that's how we compete, on costs but also on service and quality.

Grier invites any interested to contact him at kevingrier.com to request a three-month trial subscription to his Canadian Pork Market Report.
For more visit Farmscape.Ca.
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       *Farmscape is produced on behalf of North America’s pork producers




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Asia-Pacific will require 19,500 new aircraft by 2043, Airbus announced on Wednesday, November 13 at a regional aviation summit.




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NDMA issues flash flood warning for K-P, GB amid heavy rains forecast

Tarbela Dam hits 1550ft capacity; significant water releases recorded at key points including Kalabagh, Taunsa, Guddu.




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BMX Sale - Sunday Bikes "Forecaster LHD" 2019 BMX Bike



We were able to get in stock again the popular Sunday Bikes "Forecaster" 2019 BMX bikes with LHD drive unit (chain, chainring, driver on the left side) and we can now offer them to you at a great special price. The Sunday Bikes "Forecaster" 2019 BMX bike offers the ideal basis for further development in the BMX freestyle game and comes directly with Odyssey "Clutch V2" Street-Freecoaster (LHD).

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US Ceilings Market Forecast 2024-2033: Commercial Building Rebound Fuels Growth

The “U.S. Ceilings Market 2024-2033” report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offerings.




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Commercial Construction Market Forecast for 2024-25

The American Institute of Architects published its latest consensus forecast for 2024 and 2025. Learn more about what the AIA and other forecasting resources are projecting for the construction market in the coming years.




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Top Economist for Cement and Concrete Industries Reveals 2025 Construction Forecast

Ed Sullivan, chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence for the Portland Cement Association — which represents America’s cement manufacturers — says that the Federal Reserve’s recent move to lower interest rates, coupled with easing inflation, signals a significant retreat in interest rate levels by the end of next year…all to the benefit of construction activity.




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SDM 2023 Industry Forecast: ‘Looking Forward’

Security dealers and integrators look back at 2022 and forward to expectations for 2023




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Fire Testing Market Forecast to Be Valued at $13B by 2032

Manufacturers and end users of valves are growing more interested in fire-safe testing, which is encouraging the adoption of fire testing systems, according to a report by Fact.MR.




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2013 Industry Forecast: Controlling the Game

Winning a security project today is a bit like playing a game of chess. With every potential job, you face a wide variety of opponents (competitors) who have an even wider variety of moves (security offerings/competitive advantages), all aimed at putting your king into checkmate; in effect, freezing you out of the job.




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2014 Subscriber Market Forecast Study

Sometimes it’s good to be wrong. In late 2012, security systems integrators and dealers forecasted that their total annual revenue would improve only slightly — 1 percent, on average — during 2013.




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SDM 2015 Industry Forecast

Results of SDM’s Industry Forecast Study, coupled with an outlook from leading dealers and integrators, offers positive assurance for the security industry’s 2015 performance: 13.9 percent growth. It will be driven by a higher level of services being offered to consumers and businesses. 




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SDM 2016 Industry Forecast: Is the Security Space Too Congested?

Fasten your seat belts: 2016 is going to be a bumpy ride. 




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SDM 2017 Security Industry Forecast: Envisioning Change

If the word “change” isn’t part of your business plan this year, you’d better rethink it.