By Jessica Corbett Common Dreams “This is a wake-up call,” says one Australian marine biologist. “Given sea temperatures usually increase as we get towards March, this is probably conservative.” Delivering yet another “wake-up call” after recent studies have shown that … Continue reading →

A study from The Insight Partners projects the value of the global building automation market will move from $76.75 billion last year to more than $167 billion by 2031.

On 30 July, AGU and its coalition partners in Friends of NOAA sent a letter to Senator Ed Markey’s office (D-MA) endorsing the Forecasting Optimization for Robust Earth Climate Analysis and Subseasonal to Seasonal (FORECASTS) Tracking Act of 2024. This legislation continues to progress the work done by Congress in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 by providing funding for essential activities at the National Oceanic and …

The post AGU endorses the FORECASTS Tracking Act appeared first on The Bridge: Connecting Science and Policy.

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected.

This shift in outlook is driven by several factors, including the potential for new tariffs from a Trump administration, which would likely impact trade, along with weaker macroeconomic performance in Europe and the increasing risk of inflation falling below target.

According to Deutsche Bank, the uncertainty surrounding these dynamics is considerable, especially given the unclear timing and effects of U.S. tariffs and potential European responses. Reflecting this uncertainty, the bank has outlined a broad target range of 1.00% to 1.75% for the ECB’s terminal rate.

Deutsche Bank notes that the terminal rate’s trajectory and ultimate level will depend on key influences such as:

1. European fiscal policy,
2. the economic health of Germany,
3. developments in China,
4. and fluctuations in oil prices.

The bank further suggests that the global economy may be entering a new phase, with Europe potentially experiencing increasingly divergent economic conditions compared to the U.S.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for CPI

CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (2%)
• 2.6% (56%) - consensus
• 2.5% (28%)
• 2.4% (12%)
• 2.3% (2%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (17%)
• 0.2% (73%) - consensus
• 0.1% (10%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 3.4% (8%)
• 3.3% (81%) - consensus
• 3.2% (11%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (4%)
• 0.3% (82%) - consensus
• 0.2% (14%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline CPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that we have a pretty strong consensus and not much skew on either side.

Nonetheless, there's been a consistent bid in the US Dollar going into this report with Treasury yields higher and stocks kinda rangebound. The market might have already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there's some risk of a short-term "sell the fact" reaction on a higher than expected number.

It goes without saying that a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury yields shooting higher.

On the other hand, a soft print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one can argue that it's just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.

Shares of Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) are skyrocketing in early-morning trading after the company announced its Q3 2024 results, which beat expectations. As of the time of this writing, SHOP stock is up an impressive 23% to above $110 per share. 

However, Shopify’s stock isn’t on fire only because of its good Q3. There are some other reasons why Shopify is exciting investors this morning. Here’s what to know:

Shopify’s ‘outstanding’ results

Shopify would probably disagree with the statement that the company had a good Q3. As the company’s president, Harley Finkelstein, said in a press release, the results were “outstanding.”

Why was the quarter so outstanding? A big part of it was the company’s Q3 revenue, which came in at $2.16 billion. That represents a whopping 26% year-over-year growth rate from Q3 2023.

As Reuters notes, it even surpassed many analysts’ lofty expectations of $2.11 billion in revenue, leading to the ninth time in a row that the company has beat analyst expectations on sales.

Not only did Shopify beat analyst expectations again, but its 26% revenue growth for this quarter marked “our sixth consecutive quarter of greater than 25% revenue growth excluding logistics,” Shopify CFO Jeff Hoffmeister said.

In a slide deck, Shopify also announced that as of Q3 2024, the company had facilitated $1 trillion in global sales since the platform’s inception and that it now has a 10% share of the U.S. e-commerce market.

Okay, but why did Shopify have such a good Q3?

As also noted by Reuters, Shopify attracted more merchants to its online e-commerce platform this quarter. One of the attractions for the merchants seems to be a new artificial intelligence tool Shopify started rolling out in June called Sidekick.

Sidekick is an artificial intelligence assistant currently in early access for some merchants. Shopify says the AI bot “will act as your very own advisor, guiding you with tailored, skilled advice to make your business stronger.”

It does this by shouldering some of the mundane but necessary tasks that any businessperson needs to do to manage their business. Sidekick can help easily keep track of a merchant’s inventory, generate myriad reports that reveal new insights about your business, and even suggest ways to attract more customers to a storefront.

Sidekick is in addition to another AI tool Shopify offers, this one called Shopify Magic, which helps merchants create product images for their wares, write product descriptions, and even help them generate FAQs for their stores.

These AI tools are making it easier than ever for customers to manage their storefronts, and their availability is clearly a draw for some merchants.

The future looks promising, too

But Shopify’s stock isn’t only surging because the company had a terrific Q3. If anything, investors seem most excited about what the company has predicted will happen next.

Shopify’s current quarter, Q4, is arguably the most important of the year for the company and its merchants. This is the all-important holiday shopping quarter—and Shopify has anounced it has strong hopes for the period.

The key metric that Shopify has forecast is its revenue expectations for Q4, which the company says it expects will “grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.”

That’s music to investors’ ears, as it means Shopify expects it may do even better in Q4 than its just-completed outstanding Q3. That revenue growth estimate is also more than the 22.7% revenue growth many analysts were expecting, noted Reuters.

A resurgent stock

Shopify’s stock started 2024 with prices hovering in the high seventies before dropping to the low sixties over the summer. But since the beginning of the fall, SHOP shares have been on an upswing. Today’s 23% surge means SHOP shares are actually up over 38% year-to-date.

However, despite the resurgent stock, SHOP shares are nowhere near their all-time high of above $152 per share. Those highs were achieved in mid- to late-2021 when e-commerce was enjoying a pandemic boom as more people preferred online shopping over brick-and-mortar stores.

During the pandemic, the foundations on which retailers, brands and Consumer Products companies rely to determine trade volumes, pricing and promotions have been shaken and, in some cases, broken.

AI developers DataRobot and Palantir Technologies Inc have entered into a new partnership designed to create unique, agile and real-time solutions to help solve the most pressing demand forecasting problems.

PredictHQ has announced its Demand Impact Pattern for severe weather events, with data sets to help businesses prepare for major weather events and mitigate overall impact by integrating into machine learning models for demand forecasting.

CJ Lang & Son Ltd, the wholesaler for SPAR in Scotland, and the major Scottish convenience store franchise with over 300 stores across the country, has selected RELEX, provider of unified supply chain and retail planning solutions, to automate and optimise its supply chain processes.

Logility, Inc., the prescriptive supply chain planning solutions provider, has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Garvis, a visionary SaaS startup that combines large language models (ChatGPT) with AI-native demand forecasting.

By Rudrendu Kumar Paul and Bidyut Sarkar

Embracing the Future of Supply Chain Management: An Exploration of AI's Transformative Impact on Demand Forecasting and its Potential to Navigate Global Uncertainties.

Canalys' recent global wearable band market analysis forecasts a 2% rise in 2023, totaling to 186 million units. This growth is primarily driven by a significant 22% surge in basic watch shipments in emerging markets, notably India.

Location: Electronic Resource- 

Aerospace Quick Disconnects And Couplings Market Global Outlook And Forecast 2023–2035

Under Armour's shares surged 20% after the company raised its annual profit forecast, driven by cost-cutting measures and a focus on full-price sales. Founder and CEO Kevin Plank's strategy of reducing discounts and inventory helped boost gross margins, signaling a potential turnaround for the sportswear brand.

Coty expects lower annual profit than previously forecasted. Demand for beauty products is slowing down in the US and Australia. Consumers are choosing essential products over beauty items. Coty's prestige fragrance segment, however, reported a 9% rise in sales. This is due to new launches such as Burberry Goddess and Marc Jacobs Daisy Wild fragrances.

Net sales rose 40% to $301.1 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with analysts' average estimates of $285.8 million, as per data compiled by LSEG.

Thursday, October 10 is expected to see early cloud and a chance of one or two showers, brighter thereafter, with the high to be near 27°C/81°F and the low to be near 24°C/75°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be north. The relative humidity is expected to be near 76%. Sunrise […]

Friday, October 11 is expected to be mostly cloudy with rain/showers, easing towards evening, with the high to be near 25°C/77°F and the low to be near 21°C/70°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 82%. Sunrise will be at 7.20am and […]

Saturday October 12 is expected to be sunny, with the high to be near 26°C/78°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be N. The relative humidity is expected to be near 57%. Sunrise will be at 7:21am and sunset will be at 6:49pm. High […]

Sunday, October 13 is expected to see plenty of sunshine, with the high to be near 26°C/79°F and the low to be near 22°C/71°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 58%. Sunrise will be at 7.21am and sunset will be at […]

Monday, October 14 is expected to see mostly sunny day turns cloudy with a few showers overnight, with the high to be near 26°C/79°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SSW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 61%. Sunrise will be […]

Tuesday October 15 is expected to be windy with thunderstorms, with the high to be near 27°C/80°F and the low to be near 23°C/73°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 85%. Sunrise will be at 7:23am and sunset will be at […]

Wednesday October 16 is expected to see a mix of clouds and sun, with the high to be near 27°C/81°F and the low to be near 23°C/73°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 79%. Sunrise will be at 7:24am and sunset […]

Thursday, October 17 is expected to be mostly cloudy with a few showers, clearing overnight, with the high to be near 27°C/80°F and the low to be near 23°C/73°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be south. The relative humidity is expected to be near 89%. Sunrise will be at 7.24am […]

Friday, October 18 is expected to see sunshine developing, chance of one or two late night showers, with the high to be near 26°C/78°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be west. The relative humidity is expected to be near 69%. Sunrise will be […]

Saturday October 19 is expected to be cloudy, with the high to be near 26°C/79°F and the low to be near 23°C/74°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be W. The relative humidity is expected to be near 79%. Sunrise will be at 7:26am and sunset will be at 6:41pm. High […]

Sunday, October 20 is expected to see a possible morning shower, brightening up during afternoon, with the high to be near 27°C/80°F and the low to be near 23°C/73°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 78%. Sunrise will be at 7.27am […]

Monday, October 21 is expected to be generally sunny, with the high to be near 26°C/79°F and the low to be near 23°C/73°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 68%. Sunrise will be at 7.28am and sunset will be at 6.38pm. […]

Tuesday October 22 is expected to be cloudy, with the high to be near 27°C/80°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be E. The relative humidity is expected to be near 66%. Sunrise will be at 7:28am and sunset will be at 6:37pm. High […]

Wednesday October 23 is expected to be windy with rain, with the high to be near 25°C/77°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 91%. Sunrise will be at 7:29am and sunset will be at […]

Thursday, October 24 is expected to see sunny periods with a few showers, easing later, with the high to be near 26°C/79°F and the low to be near 22°C/72°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be west. The relative humidity is expected to be near 82%. Sunrise will be at 7.30am […]

Friday, October 25 is expected to see a mix of sun and cloud with a few showers around, with the high to be near 26°C/78°F and the low to be near 22°C/71°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be WNW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 73%. Sunrise will […]

Saturday October 26 is expected to see few clouds, with the high to be near 24°C/76°F and the low to be near 21°C/70°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be N. The relative humidity is expected to be near 67%. Sunrise will be at 7:31am and sunset will be at 6:33pm. […]

Sunday, October 27 is expected to be mostly sunny with a couple of showers developing late night, with the high to be near 25°C/77°F and the low to be near 21°C/69°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be north. The relative humidity is expected to be near 66%. Sunrise will be […]

Monday, October 28 is expected to see cloudy spells develop with a few showers likely, with the high to be near 24°C/75°F and the low to be near 20°C/68°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NNE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 79%. Sunrise will be at 7.33am […]

Tuesday October 29 is expected to see partly cloudy skies, with the high to be near 24°C/76°F and the low to be near 21°C/70°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 64%. Sunrise will be at 7:34am and sunset will be at […]

Wednesday October 30 is expected to see be sunny, with the high to be near 22°C/72°F and the low to be near 19°C/66°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 64%. Sunrise will be at 7:35am and sunset will be at 6:29pm. […]

Thursday, October 31 is expected to see a mix of sun and cloud, with the high to be near 23°C/74°F and the low to be near 20°C/68°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be ENE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 61%. Sunrise will be at 7.36am and sunset […]

Friday, November 1 is expected to see abundant sunshine, with the high to be near 24°C/75°F and the low to be near 20°C/68°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be east. The relative humidity is expected to be near 62%. Sunrise will be at 7.36am and sunset will be at 6.28pm. […]

Saturday November 2 is expected to be sunny, with the high to be near 24°C/76°F and the low to be near 21°C/69°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be E. The relative humidity is expected to be near 63%. Sunrise will be at 7:37am and sunset will be at 6:27pm. High […]

Sunday, November 3 is expected to see increasing cloud with a few showers likely towards evening, with the high to be near 24°C/75°F and the low to be near 19°C/67°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be north. The relative humidity is expected to be near 68%. Sunrise will be at […]

Monday, November 4 is expected to see a mix of sun and cloud, chance of a light shower evening onwards, with the high to be near 23°C/73°F and the low to be near 19°C/66°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 64%. […]

Tuesday November 5 is expected to be partly cloudy, with the high to be near 23°C/73°F and the low to be near 19°C/67°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be ENE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 67%. Sunrise will be at 6:40am and sunset will be at 5:24pm. […]

Wednesday November 6 is expected to see partly cloudy skies, with the high to be near 24°C/75°F and the low to be near 19°C/66°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be ESE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 63%. Sunrise will be at 6:41am and sunset will be at […]

Thursday, November 7 is expected to be mostly sunny, with the high to be near 24°C/76°F and the low to be near 19°C/67°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be SE. The relative humidity is expected to be near 65%. Sunrise will be at 6.42am and sunset will be at 5.23pm. […]

Friday, November 8 is expected to be fine and dry through the day, chance of a shower late night, with the high to be near 25°C/77°F and the low to be near 21°C/70°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be west. The relative humidity is expected to be near 72%. Sunrise […]

Saturday November 9 is expected to be windy, with the high to be near 21°C/70°F and the low to be near 18°C/65°F, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Winds are expected to be NW. The relative humidity is expected to be near 82%. Sunrise will be at 6:43am and sunset will be at 5:21pm. High […]