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When Immigration Goes Up, Prices Go Down

Last week, a gallon of gas at an Exxon station in the tony suburb of Bethesda cost $2.99.




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When We Cook Up a Memory, Experience Is Just One Ingredient

People hate Mondays. And they love Fridays. The Carpenters crooned about being blue in "Rainy Days and Mondays." The restaurant chain T.G.I. Friday's might restrict its clientele to workaholics if it were to rename itself T.G.I. Monday's.




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When Disadvantages Collide

One hundred forty-three years ago, women's suffrage advocate Elizabeth Cady Stanton faced a conundrum: With the Civil War over, Stanton had to decide whether to support the 14th and 15th amendments to the Constitution, which enabled black men to vote -- at a time when white women such as herself...




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When Play Becomes Work

It happens all the time: Two guys in a garage come up with a cool new technology -- and dream of making it big. A thousand people take time off work to campaign for a visionary politician because they feel they are doing something to change the world. A million kids hit baseballs -- and wonder what...




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When Good People Write Bad Sentences, by Robert Harris

All great writing starts with a sentence. But what is it that makes a sentence great?  Could it be grammar, syntax, style, word choice, information, meaning, common sense, passion etc? According to one author, there is only one rule for writing a great sentence. And this is the rule:  "whether you're Christian, Jew, Muslim, or a disciple of the church of Penn Jillette, when you sit down to write, the Reader is thy god." The rule is certainly thought-provoking but one has to wonder if one rule would be enough for writing a great sentence.

Robert Harris, in his book, "When Good People Write Bad Sentences," offers "12 Steps to Verbal Enlightenment" that can cure any eager to learn "bad writing addict." Besides, the 12 steps don’t just provide solutions to well-known problems in the categories of punctuation, syntax, diction, and style but also help bad writers understand the emotional foundations and psychological forces behind those problems. Harris argues, not without humor, that only with this deep understanding can permanent changes take place. He identifies nine types of ineffective sentences that arise from unexamined emotions and self-destructive needs, and offers an integrated approach which could help writers learn to take a broader and healthier perspective on sentence construction.

When it comes to the malady of writing badly, which he calls "malescribism,"--an uncontrollable urge to write carelessly and unpersuasively--Harris warns that this malady "is no respecter of status, nor does it take into account social, ethnic, or religious orientation." He also notes that malescribes could be black and white, male and female, believer and nonbeliever, liberal and conservative.

Since we all would like to write better sentences consistently, let's look at the advice offered by Robert Harris, and also share some of the great sentences that we have come across in our reading.


 




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Understanding Which English Learners Are Counted on School Accountability Measures—and When

WASHINGTON – The federal Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA) requires states to publicly report annual performance and graduation rates for students in a range of areas, breaking out results for subgroups with unique characteristics, including English Learners (ELs). The objective is to help schools identify and close achievement gaps experienced by historically underserved groups of students.




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Which English Learners Count When? Understanding State EL Subgroup Definitions in ESSA Reporting

States publish a wealth of data about their English Learner students’ academic achievement and other outcomes such as graduation rates. But the answer to the question “Who is an EL?” is not always the same. This brief explains how the EL subgroup varies across states and types of data, and why it is important to understand these differences when making decisions about how ELs and schools are faring.




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Beware the Rareness Illusion When Exploring the Unknown

Here's a great vacation idea. Spend the summer roaming the world in search of the 10 lost tribes of Israel, exiled from Samaria by the Assyrians 2700 years ago (2 Kings 17:6). Or perhaps you'd like to search for Prester John, the virtuous ruler of a kingdom lost in the Orient? Or would you rather trace the gold-laden kingdom of Ophir (1 Kings 9:28)? Or do you prefer the excitement of tracking the Amazons, that nation of female warriors? Or perhaps the naval power mentioned by Plato, operating from the island of Atlantis? Or how about unicorns, or the fountain of eternal youth? The Unknown is so vast that the possibilities are endless.

Maybe you don't believe in unicorns. But Plato evidently "knew" about the island of Atlantis. The conquest of Israel is known from Assyrian archeology and from the Bible. That you've never seen a Reubenite or a Naphtalite (or a unicorn) means that they don't exist?

It is true that when something really does not exist, one might spend a long time futilely looking for it. Many people have spent enormous energy searching for lost tribes, lost gold, and lost kingdoms. Why is it so difficult to decide that what you're looking for really isn't there? The answer, ironically, is that the world has endless possibilities for discovery and surprise.

Let's skip vacation plans and consider some real-life searches. How long should you (or the Libyans) look for Muammar Qaddafi? If he's not in the town of Surt, maybe he's Bani Walid, or Algeria, or Timbuktu? How do you decide he cannot be found? Maybe he was pulverized by a NATO bomb. It's urgent to find the suicide bomber in the crowded bus station before it's too late - if he's really there. You'd like to discover a cure for AIDS, or a method to halt the rising global temperature, or a golden investment opportunity in an emerging market, or a proof of the parallel postulate of Euclidean geometry.

Let's focus our question. Suppose you are looking for something, and so far you have only "negative" evidence: it's not here, it's not there, it's not anywhere you've looked. Why is it so difficult to decide, conclusively and confidently, that it simply does not exist?

This question is linked to a different question: how to make the decision that "it" (whatever it is) does not exist. We will focus on the "why" question, and leave the "how" question to students of decision theories such as statistics, fuzzy logic, possibility theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and info-gap theory. (If you're interested in an info-gap application to statistics, here is an example.)

Answers to the "why" question can be found in several domains.

Psychology provides some answers. People can be very goal oriented, stubborn, and persistent. Marco Polo didn't get to China on a 10-hour plane flight. The round trip took him 24 years, and he didn't travel business class.

Ideology is a very strong motivator. When people believe something strongly, it is easy for them to ignore evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, for some people, the search itself is valued more than the putative goal.

The answer to the "why" question that I will focus on is found by contemplating The Endless Unknown. It is so vast, so unstructured, so, well ..., unknown, that we cannot calibrate our negative evidence to decide that whatever we're looking for just ain't there.

I'll tell a true story.

I was born in the US and my wife was born in Israel, but our life-paths crossed, so to speak, before we were born. She had a friend whose father was from Europe and lived for a while - before the friend was born - with a cousin of his in my home town. This cousin was - years later - my 3rd grade teacher. My school teacher was my future wife's friend's father's cousin.

Amazing coincidence. This convoluted sequence of events is certainly rare. How many of you can tell the very same story? But wait a minute. This convoluted string of events could have evolved in many many different ways, each of which would have been an equally amazing coincidence. The number of similar possible paths is namelessly enormous, uncountably humongous. In other words, potential "rare" events are very numerous. Now that sounds like a contradiction (we're getting close to some of Zeno's paradoxes, and Aristotle thought Zeno was crazy). It is not a contradiction; it is only a "rareness illusion" (something like an optical illusion). The specific event sequence in my story is unique, which is the ultimate rarity. We view this sequence as an amazing coincidence because we cannot assess the number of similar sequences. Surprising strings of events occur not infrequently because the number of possible surprising strings is so unimaginably vast. The rareness illusion is the impression of rareness arising from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown. "Necessary" because, by definition, we cannot know what is unknown. "Vast" because the world is so rich in possibilities.

The rareness illusion is a false impression, a mistake. For instance, it leads people to wrongly goggle at strings of events - rare in themselves - even though "rare events" are numerous and "amazing coincidences" occur all the time. An appreciation of the richness and boundlessness of the Unknown is an antidote for the rareness illusion.

Recognition of the rareness illusion is the key to understanding why it is so difficult to confidently decide, based on negative evidence, that what you're looking for simply does not exist.

One might be inclined to reason as follows. If you're looking for something, then look very thoroughly, and if you don't find it, then it's not there. That is usually sound and sensible advice, and often "looking thoroughly" will lead to discovery.

However, the number of ways that we could overlook something that really is there is enormous. It is thus very difficult to confidently conclude that the search was thorough and that the object cannot be found. Take the case of your missing house keys. They dropped from your pocket in the car, or on the sidewalk and somebody picked them up, or you left them in the lock when you left the house, or or or .... Familiarity with the rareness illusion makes it very difficult to decide that you have searched thoroughly. If you think that the only contingencies not yet explored are too exotic to be relevant (a raven snatched them while you were daydreaming about that enchanting new employee), then think again, because you've been blinded by a rareness illusion. The number of such possibilities is so vastly unfathomable that you cannot confidently say that all of them are collectively negligible. Recognition of the rareness illusion prevents you from confidently concluding that what you are seeking simply does not exist.

Many quantitative tools grapple with the rareness illusion. We mentioned some decision theories earlier. But because the rareness illusion derives from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown, one must always beware.

Looking for an exciting vacation? The Endless Unknown is the place to go. 





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Charles Barkley believes in the hot hand fallacy – when it comes to poker, anyway

NBA legend and recreational gambler Charles Barkley is presented with the following hypothetical on ESPN radio: You are winning big at the poker table when a beautiful woman sits down next to you. “Do you stay with the hands or do you leave?” Barkley: “Bro, gambling is so fickle, I love to gamble, when you [...]




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What happens when a Silicon Valley technologist works for the government | Matt Cutts

What if the government ran more like Silicon Valley? Engineer Matt Cutts shares why he decided to leave Google (where he worked for nearly 17 years) for a career in the US government -- and makes the case that if you really want to make an impact, go where your help is needed most.




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We’re Not Good At Spotting When Someone Has A False Memory Of Committing A Crime

By Emily Reynolds. Findings have implications for judges, police officers, and others involved with gathering evidence and interviewing eyewitnesses.




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California schools will look very different when they reopen




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When Will The Birds Fly Free?: Education as Colonialism

The play made me ask the terrifying question that every educator asks themselves at some point: Am I actually helping my students?




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Armed Staff Keep Rural Schools Safe When Police Are Far Away, Panel Hears

Arming some school staff provides a needed safety option for rural districts far from law enforcement, educators told the Federal School Safety Commission during an Arkansas site visit Wednesday.




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When the PD Plate Is Overfull

Growing requirements for trainings on non-academic issues—everything from food allergies to sexual assault—have made it hard for schools and teachers to keep up.




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Brian Flores won’t accept sloppy football when football returns

NFL coaches might be deprived of their beloved routines, but they're not giving up expectations. For Dolphins coach Brian Flores, that means harkening back to a lesson from one of his New England mentors as he embarks on an offseason of change. With so many new parts arriving in free agency, a new quarterback in [more]




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When the cars stopped listening.




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Elder Law - Access to Justice when faily agreements lead to disagreements -Tina Cockburn SLIDES.




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Credit when it's due : timely reminders help consumers reduce their credit card debt / Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government, Commonwealth of Australia, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Consumers who only make the minimum repayment on their credit card could be paying hundreds of dollars a year in high interest payments. To help, BETA partnered with the Treasury and Westpac to see if reminders could encourage consumers to pay earlier and save money. We found any type of SMS reminder resulted in a $134 (28 per cent) increase in repayments in the following month, compared to those who received no message. However, different SMS messages all had a similar impact and we were unable to detect an effect from sending email reminders. Overall, the findings suggest that sending an SMS reminder to credit card consumers before their payment due date is a simple, cost-effective way to improve their financial wellbeing.




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Lost and found : memory, identity, and who we became when we're no longer ourselves / Jules Montague.

Brain -- Diseases.




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Memory wise : how memory works and what to do when it doesn't / Dr Anne Unkenstein.

Memory.




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An enquiry into the source from whence the symptoms of the scurvy and of putrid fevers, arise : and into the seat which those affections occupy in the animal oeconomy; with a view of ascertaining a more just idea of putrid diseases than has generally been

London : printed for J. Dodsley, 1782.




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A lion that has escaped from a circus in Florence picks up a baby in its teeth, but when the baby's mother shouts at it, the lion gives the baby back to the mother unharmed. Watercolour by M. Díez de Bulnes, 1817, after N.A. Monsiau.

[Spain?], An. 1817.




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Breast exams : (for when you're getting them cut off) : (because you want to)

[London] : [publisher not identified], [2019]




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The limiting behavior of isotonic and convex regression estimators when the model is misspecified

Eunji Lim.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 2053--2097.

Abstract:
We study the asymptotic behavior of the least squares estimators when the model is possibly misspecified. We consider the setting where we wish to estimate an unknown function $f_{*}:(0,1)^{d} ightarrow mathbb{R}$ from observations $(X,Y),(X_{1},Y_{1}),cdots ,(X_{n},Y_{n})$; our estimator $hat{g}_{n}$ is the minimizer of $sum _{i=1}^{n}(Y_{i}-g(X_{i}))^{2}/n$ over $gin mathcal{G}$ for some set of functions $mathcal{G}$. We provide sufficient conditions on the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$, under which $hat{g}_{n}$ converges to $g_{*}$ as $n ightarrow infty $, where $g_{*}$ is the minimizer of $|g-f_{*}| riangleq mathbb{E}(g(X)-f_{*}(X))^{2}$ over $gin mathcal{G}$. As corollaries of our theorem, we establish $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}| ightarrow 0$ as $n ightarrow infty $ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of monotone functions or the set of convex functions. We also make a connection between the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|$ and the metric entropy of $mathcal{G}$. As special cases of our finding, we compute the convergence rate of $|hat{g}_{n}-g_{*}|^{2}$ when $mathcal{G}$ is the set of bounded monotone functions or the set of bounded convex functions.




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A comparison of spatial predictors when datasets could be very large

Jonathan R. Bradley, Noel Cressie, Tao Shi.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 10, 100--131.

Abstract:
In this article, we review and compare a number of methods of spatial prediction, where each method is viewed as an algorithm that processes spatial data. To demonstrate the breadth of available choices, we consider both traditional and more-recently-introduced spatial predictors. Specifically, in our exposition we review: traditional stationary kriging, smoothing splines, negative-exponential distance-weighting, fixed rank kriging, modified predictive processes, a stochastic partial differential equation approach, and lattice kriging. This comparison is meant to provide a service to practitioners wishing to decide between spatial predictors. Hence, we provide technical material for the unfamiliar, which includes the definition and motivation for each (deterministic and stochastic) spatial predictor. We use a benchmark dataset of $mathrm{CO}_{2}$ data from NASA’s AIRS instrument to address computational efficiencies that include CPU time and memory usage. Furthermore, the predictive performance of each spatial predictor is assessed empirically using a hold-out subset of the AIRS data.




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Joint convergence of sample autocovariance matrices when $p/n o 0$ with application

Monika Bhattacharjee, Arup Bose.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3470--3503.

Abstract:
Consider a high-dimensional linear time series model where the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow in such a way that $p/n o 0$. Let $hat{Gamma }_{u}$ be the $u$th order sample autocovariance matrix. We first show that the LSD of any symmetric polynomial in ${hat{Gamma }_{u},hat{Gamma }_{u}^{*},ugeq 0}$ exists under independence and moment assumptions on the driving sequence together with weak assumptions on the coefficient matrices. This LSD result, with some additional effort, implies the asymptotic normality of the trace of any polynomial in ${hat{Gamma }_{u},hat{Gamma }_{u}^{*},ugeq 0}$. We also study similar results for several independent MA processes. We show applications of the above results to statistical inference problems such as in estimation of the unknown order of a high-dimensional MA process and in graphical and significance tests for hypotheses on coefficient matrices of one or several such independent processes.




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Active ranking from pairwise comparisons and when parametric assumptions do not help

Reinhard Heckel, Nihar B. Shah, Kannan Ramchandran, Martin J. Wainwright.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3099--3126.

Abstract:
We consider sequential or active ranking of a set of $n$ items based on noisy pairwise comparisons. Items are ranked according to the probability that a given item beats a randomly chosen item, and ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of prespecified sizes according to their scores. This notion of ranking includes as special cases the identification of the top-$k$ items and the total ordering of the items. We first analyze a sequential ranking algorithm that counts the number of comparisons won, and uses these counts to decide whether to stop, or to compare another pair of items, chosen based on confidence intervals specified by the data collected up to that point. We prove that this algorithm succeeds in recovering the ranking using a number of comparisons that is optimal up to logarithmic factors. This guarantee does depend on whether or not the underlying pairwise probability matrix, satisfies a particular structural property, unlike a significant body of past work on pairwise ranking based on parametric models such as the Thurstone or Bradley–Terry–Luce models. It has been a long-standing open question as to whether or not imposing these parametric assumptions allows for improved ranking algorithms. For stochastic comparison models, in which the pairwise probabilities are bounded away from zero, our second contribution is to resolve this issue by proving a lower bound for parametric models. This shows, perhaps surprisingly, that these popular parametric modeling choices offer at most logarithmic gains for stochastic comparisons.




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How to Adapt Your Customer Service When Crisis Strikes

Customer service doesn't have to suffer while your company goes through a difficult transition. In fact, 78 percent of consumers said they stopped doing business with a company because of poor customer service. Now is the time to show your most valuable buyers how you'll keep them informed, updated and respected throughout this crisis by adapting your practices to the moment.




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How—and When—Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

Americans have some time before social distancing measures can let up—and every day counts




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Ten New Travel Books to Read When You’re Stuck at Home

Don’t let the coronavirus quarantine hold you back from becoming an armchair traveler




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When Young Women Printmakers in Japan Joined Forces to Create a Strong Impression

A planned exhibition at the Portland Art Museum highlights the boldness of their work




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When the Stanley Cup Final Was Canceled Because of a Pandemic

In 1919, a second wave of cases of the previous year's flu lead to the sudden death of the hockey championship




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When a Quake Shook Alaska, a Radio Reporter Led the Public Through the Devastating Crisis

In the hours after disaster struck Anchorage, an unexpected figure named Genie Chance came to the rescue




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When Babe Ruth and the Great Influenza Gripped Boston

As Babe Ruth was emerging as baseball's great slugger in 1918, he fell sick with the flu




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When Coronavirus Lockdowns Go Too Far

The closures were necessary. Chasing picnickers and closing paint aisles is petty overreach.




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This is what a trip to the dentist could look like in B.C. when offices reopen

Dentists in B.C. are trying to figure out how they might reopen by May 19 as the province begins to loosen restrictions after flattening the infection curve during the COVID-19 pandemic.



  • News/Canada/British Columbia

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Jennifer Jones was ready to pounce when Lisa Weagle suddenly became star free agent

The time was right for Lisa Weagle to join forces with Olympic champion Jennifer Jones. Jones told CBC Sports' Anastasia Bucsis that the latest addition to her five-person rink "was like the clouds parted and the sun came out."



  • Sports/Olympics/Winter Sports/Curling

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Apple Retail stores will look very different in the US when they reopen



Apple's upcoming reopening of some U.S.-based retail locations will be based around guidelines that the company developed for and refined at its open South Korea Apple Store.




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Using SOLIDWORKS’ Smart Dimension Tool When Sketching Arcs & Circles

This helpful #TechTip is brought to you by our Training Manager John Setzer, and covers using the smart dimension tool when sketching arcs and circles. Find more options available to you, when you want to create a dimension and don’t

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GSC fuels customer success with 3D engineering solutions for design, simulation, data management, electrical schematics, PCB, technical documentation, and 3D printing, as well as the most comprehensive consulting, technical support, and training in the industry. As a leading provider of SOLIDWORKS solutions, HP, and Markforged 3D printing technologies, GSC’s world-class team of dedicated professionals have helped numerous companies innovate and increase productivity by leveraging advanced technologies to drive 3D business success. Founded in 1989, GSC is headquartered in Germantown, WI. For more information about GSC, please visit www.gsc-3d.com.

The post Using SOLIDWORKS’ Smart Dimension Tool When Sketching Arcs & Circles appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Tech Blog.




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When God leads the way

A group of people open to the Holy Spirit's leading find an open door for ministry in Nazareth.




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"When I grow up"

OM Guatemala and volunteers visit Tiquisate to share about God's love in eight public schools.




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When discipleship and ministry collide

During the OM's Ride 2 Transform 2017 cycle tour, 17 cyclists biked 550 kilometres around southern Malawi, distributing AudioBibles and praying.




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Trusting God when it hurts

Mexico City, Mexico :: A crewmember on a ministry team in Mexico City meets a faith-filled teenager with an inspiring testimony.




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The way I see it  - When it means what it says

It matters not if we are from 200 countries; we are one in Christ and shall be for eternity. OMNI-team member Greg Kernaghan about ‘globalisation’.




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When the Rubber Hits the Road

Profile of a veteran driver with OM EAST




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Andy Murray says deciding when tennis can return is not important right now

Andy Murray does not think getting the professional tennis circuit back up and running should be a priority any time soon.




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Ron MacKenna: How to eat out at home when all around you are losing their heads

THAT potato paratha then, being freshly made as I stand by idly at the counter, spring rain pouring from those raised shutters above and streaming onto open decking right behind. It would be miserable waiting for it out here were it not for the following.




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When caring for the needy means us

"In order to fulfil our mandate, there are several needs we must invest in," says Stephan Bauer.