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After 6 More Months, 31 Million New Domestic Violence Cases, Warns U.N.

Source:

Women and children are experiencing unprecedented levels of abuse and violence at home as stress and anxiety continue to mount due to the pandemic. Data from the United Nations reveal a 600% increase in the number women who have experienced partner violence, and projections suggest that if coronavirus lockdowns continue for six more months, there will be an estimated 31 million additional domestic violence cases around the world.






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Building Skills in North and Central America: Barriers and Policy Options toward Harmonizing Qualifications in Nursing

Amid aging populations and the growth of chronic diseases, the demand for skilled health-care professionals is on the rise in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This report explores the policy implications, benefits, and challenges of harmonizing nursing qualifications in the region, suggesting that a more collaborative approach could result in greater supply and quality of nurses.




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New Orleans Saints release Pro Bowl OL Larry Warford

The New Orleans Saints released Pro Bowl offensive lineman Larry Warford after three seasons, the team announced Friday.




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Migration, Development, and Global Governance: From Crisis toward Consolidation

Migration and development policy discussions have edged closer to each other on the international stage. The adoption of the Global Compact for Migration in December 2018 marks an important milestone. As all eyes turn toward the compact’s implementation, this brief examines some of the key topics states have pledged to work more closely on—from labor migration and migrants’ rights, to returns and reintegration.




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Report: South Korea tested new ballistic missile with larger warhead

South Korea's military tested a ballistic missile capable of carrying a 2-ton warhead in March, according to local reports on Thursday.




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Northrop Grumman awarded $123.5M to integrate Navy LAIRCM system

Northrop Grumman received a $123.5 million contract modification Friday to integrate the Department of Navy Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures system onto aircraft for the U.S. military and two allied governments.




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Raytheon awarded $325M for repair of ATFLIR system for Navy Super Hornets

Raytheon was awarded a $325 million contract for repair of the Advanced Targeting Forward Looking Infrared System in the F/A-18 Super Hornet aircraft Tuesday, according to the Pentagon.




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Bell Boeing awarded $10.2M for V-22 Osprey repairs

Bell Boeing received a $10.2 million contract modification Tuesday for repairs of the V-22 Osprey multirole combat aircraft for the Navy, the Pentagon announced.




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Boeing awarded $128.5M modification to GMD missile upgrade contract

Boeing was awarded a $128.5 million modification to its Ground-based Midcourse Defense development and sustainment contract Thursday, according to the Pentagon.




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A Proxy War on Minorities? India Crafts Citizenship and Refugee Policies through the Lens of Religion

The Modi government's push for a Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens sparked deadly riots and chilled India's 200 million Muslims, who fear being relegated to second-class citizenship—and for some, even statelessness. This article explores actions by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, the significance of Bangladeshi illegal immigration as a driver, and what a register of citizens in Assam might mean for India.




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On the Move in a War Zone: Mixed Migration Flows to and through Yemen

War and impending famine in Yemen have captured significant attention. Yet often overlooked is the country’s role as the epicenter of one of the world’s busiest mixed migration routes, linking Africa, Asia, and Europe. This article examines the migration pathways to and through the country, push and pull factors, and the impact of civil war on human movement.




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Dr. Loree Bolin is ADA’s 2020 Humanitarian Award recipient

Dr. Loree Bolin’s humanitarian work has drawn accolades from the dental community in her home state of Washington, and now Dr. Bolin is being recognized nationally by being named the recipient of the ADA’s 2020 Humanitarian Award, bestowed by the ADA Board of Trustees.




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‘It’s very rewarding when dentists can treat veterans’

“Our nation’s veterans deserve the best.” Those were the words of ADA President Chad P. Gehani following his Jan. 7 visit to the Orlando VA Healthcare System’s dental clinic.




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ADA seeks applicants for standards awards

The American Dental Association is accepting submissions for awards that honor standards-based research.




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Illinois orthodontist wins ADA Stanford Award for retainer research

An Illinois orthodontist won the American Dental Association's 2019 John W. Stanford New Investigator Award for her research paper evaluating the effects of eight cleaning methods on copolyester polymer, a material commonly used in clear thermoplastic retainers.




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Howard dental school celebrates GKAS

The Howard University College of Dentistry treated 35 students from Washington’s Raymond Elementary School at a Feb. 7 Give Kids A Smile event.




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Association warns members on potential coronavirus-related phishing emails

The Association is asking member dentists and their dental teams to increase their vigilance over phishing emails as a result of the coronavirus, known as COVID-19.
Attackers often use emergencies as an opportunity to send fake emails tailored to that situation, the association said.




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10 Under 10 Awards: Recognizing the ‘unsung heroes’ of the profession

The ADA announced April 6 the recipients of its third annual 10 Under 10 Awards, which recognizes 10 new dentists who demonstrate excellence early in their careers.




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OCR warns of imposter posing as investigator

Washington — The Office for Civil Rights released a statement April 3 warning of an individual posing as an OCR investigator. The imposter has been calling entities covered by the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 in an attempt to get patient information.




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ADASRI manuscript wins 2020 William J. Gies Award in clinical research

A manuscript authored by the American Dental Association Science & Research Institute and Council on Scientific Affairs won the 2020 William J. Gies Award in clinical research from the American and International Associations for Dental Research.




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Global warming fuels algal bloom disrupting fisheries in Arabian Sea

A new scientific study published Monday found that global warming is fueling a destructive algal bloom that is disrupting fisheries in the Arabian sea.




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Wetter climate to trigger global warming feedback loop in the tropics

As the tropics get wetter, soils are likely experience greater rates of respiration and decomposition, limiting the carbon storage abilities of tropical soils and intensifying global warming.




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Smarter hardware to make artificial intelligence more energy efficient

Artificial intelligence requires a lot of energy. Simply solving a puzzle can require the equivalent of the energy produced by three nuclear plants in a single hour.




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Watch: Gwyneth Paltrow, Ben Schwartz read texts from their moms on 'Kimmel'

Gwyneth Paltrow, Ben Schwartz and other celebrities read text messages from their mothers on "Jimmy Kimmel Live" in honor of Mother's Day.




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Practicing Emotional Awareness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

When COVID-19 emerged as a clear and present public health threat, most people felt the same range of emotions: somewhere along the spectrum of fear and anxiety. People are still...




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[ Investing ] Open Question : What does an investor do when his stock notifies him...the company confirms a record date for a forward two for one stock split?




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[ Politics ] Open Question : Libtards, don't get your panties in a bunch when those two Georgia 2nd amendment warriors are found innocent of killing that black guy?

He shouldn't have fought back when the guy pointed the shot gun at him




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Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

While low-skilled workers generally have limited opportunities to legally migrate to the European Union, seasonal migration forms an important exception. This MPI Europe-SVR webinar explores lessons from Europe on managing seasonal worker programs that are responsive to labor market needs but also prioritize the well-being of seasonal workers and interests of receiving countries. 




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Red-Winged Blackbirds Understand Yellow Warbler Alarms

Researchers studying yellow warbler responses to the parasitic cowbird realized that red-winged blackbirds were eavesdropping on the calls and reacting to them, too.

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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Iraq War Naysayers May Have Hindsight Bias

Antiwar liberals last week got to savor the four most satisfying words in the English language: "I told you so."




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Wars Ultimately Measure Tolerance of Pain

Here's a question with three different answers. The first answer is derived from arithmetic. The second comes from common sense. The third is based on psychology.




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Waging War Through the Rearview Mirror

President Bush said last week that his thinking on the U.S. situation in Iraq was informed by an analogy: the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen. The lack of a sufficient American response to that and other al-Qaeda attacks, Bush said, led to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.




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Wariness, Not Hatred, Keeps Civil Wars Raging

Here is a measure of the state of the war in Iraq: The number of Iraqis dying each month now rivals the total number of people who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.




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More Civil Wars, And More Players, Too

A few days ago, Hamas fighters stormed Fatah strongholds in Gaza that were allied with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and effectively took control of one of the two pillars of the evolving Palestinian state. Fatah groups struck back in the West Bank, the other Palestinian pillar, and...




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Deciding Which Road to Take: Insights into How Migrants and Refugees in Greece Plan Onward Movement

EU policy debates about moving asylum seekers from overburdened frontline countries, such as Greece and Italy, to other Member States rarely consider how migrants form and act on preferences for certain destinations—and how difficult it may be to change these views. This issue brief explores decision-making among migrants in Greece, including how living conditions, jobs, and legal status factor in.




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WARM FIGS WITH HONEY, ORANGE & CINNAMON

It's rare for me to cook fresh figs as I think there is little that can better a squishy-ripe, jammy fig eaten just as is. However just sometimes when they are cheap (well, relatively speaking!) and plentiful, I make this dish; it makes a lovely, simple summer dessert. The thing to be mindful of when you're buying figs, is that they're often picked when they're under-ripe as they're easier to handle and store, however if they're like this they're rarely worth eating; look for figs that feel softly squishy when you gently cup them in your hand, and ideally have tiny splits in the tender flesh...your care will pay off in spades.




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Lady finger parfait with warm chocolate sauce and crushed Honey Macadamias

The local lady finger bananas are so sweet and moorish!




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Rich and warm teff pudding

Here's a healthy, rich and super tasty teff pudding for a stylish breakfast, brunch or anytime snack.




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Warne returns to big stage

Champion leg spinner Shane Warne has signed on to play with Melbourne Stars in the inaugural Big Bash League Twenty20 tournament at the end of the year.




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Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

As the European Union prepares to review the implementation of its Seasonal Workers Directive, as well as countries such as the United Kingdom continue to explore new approaches to selecting seasonal workers, this webinar features findings from a policy brief on the topic. 




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Beware the Rareness Illusion When Exploring the Unknown

Here's a great vacation idea. Spend the summer roaming the world in search of the 10 lost tribes of Israel, exiled from Samaria by the Assyrians 2700 years ago (2 Kings 17:6). Or perhaps you'd like to search for Prester John, the virtuous ruler of a kingdom lost in the Orient? Or would you rather trace the gold-laden kingdom of Ophir (1 Kings 9:28)? Or do you prefer the excitement of tracking the Amazons, that nation of female warriors? Or perhaps the naval power mentioned by Plato, operating from the island of Atlantis? Or how about unicorns, or the fountain of eternal youth? The Unknown is so vast that the possibilities are endless.

Maybe you don't believe in unicorns. But Plato evidently "knew" about the island of Atlantis. The conquest of Israel is known from Assyrian archeology and from the Bible. That you've never seen a Reubenite or a Naphtalite (or a unicorn) means that they don't exist?

It is true that when something really does not exist, one might spend a long time futilely looking for it. Many people have spent enormous energy searching for lost tribes, lost gold, and lost kingdoms. Why is it so difficult to decide that what you're looking for really isn't there? The answer, ironically, is that the world has endless possibilities for discovery and surprise.

Let's skip vacation plans and consider some real-life searches. How long should you (or the Libyans) look for Muammar Qaddafi? If he's not in the town of Surt, maybe he's Bani Walid, or Algeria, or Timbuktu? How do you decide he cannot be found? Maybe he was pulverized by a NATO bomb. It's urgent to find the suicide bomber in the crowded bus station before it's too late - if he's really there. You'd like to discover a cure for AIDS, or a method to halt the rising global temperature, or a golden investment opportunity in an emerging market, or a proof of the parallel postulate of Euclidean geometry.

Let's focus our question. Suppose you are looking for something, and so far you have only "negative" evidence: it's not here, it's not there, it's not anywhere you've looked. Why is it so difficult to decide, conclusively and confidently, that it simply does not exist?

This question is linked to a different question: how to make the decision that "it" (whatever it is) does not exist. We will focus on the "why" question, and leave the "how" question to students of decision theories such as statistics, fuzzy logic, possibility theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and info-gap theory. (If you're interested in an info-gap application to statistics, here is an example.)

Answers to the "why" question can be found in several domains.

Psychology provides some answers. People can be very goal oriented, stubborn, and persistent. Marco Polo didn't get to China on a 10-hour plane flight. The round trip took him 24 years, and he didn't travel business class.

Ideology is a very strong motivator. When people believe something strongly, it is easy for them to ignore evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, for some people, the search itself is valued more than the putative goal.

The answer to the "why" question that I will focus on is found by contemplating The Endless Unknown. It is so vast, so unstructured, so, well ..., unknown, that we cannot calibrate our negative evidence to decide that whatever we're looking for just ain't there.

I'll tell a true story.

I was born in the US and my wife was born in Israel, but our life-paths crossed, so to speak, before we were born. She had a friend whose father was from Europe and lived for a while - before the friend was born - with a cousin of his in my home town. This cousin was - years later - my 3rd grade teacher. My school teacher was my future wife's friend's father's cousin.

Amazing coincidence. This convoluted sequence of events is certainly rare. How many of you can tell the very same story? But wait a minute. This convoluted string of events could have evolved in many many different ways, each of which would have been an equally amazing coincidence. The number of similar possible paths is namelessly enormous, uncountably humongous. In other words, potential "rare" events are very numerous. Now that sounds like a contradiction (we're getting close to some of Zeno's paradoxes, and Aristotle thought Zeno was crazy). It is not a contradiction; it is only a "rareness illusion" (something like an optical illusion). The specific event sequence in my story is unique, which is the ultimate rarity. We view this sequence as an amazing coincidence because we cannot assess the number of similar sequences. Surprising strings of events occur not infrequently because the number of possible surprising strings is so unimaginably vast. The rareness illusion is the impression of rareness arising from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown. "Necessary" because, by definition, we cannot know what is unknown. "Vast" because the world is so rich in possibilities.

The rareness illusion is a false impression, a mistake. For instance, it leads people to wrongly goggle at strings of events - rare in themselves - even though "rare events" are numerous and "amazing coincidences" occur all the time. An appreciation of the richness and boundlessness of the Unknown is an antidote for the rareness illusion.

Recognition of the rareness illusion is the key to understanding why it is so difficult to confidently decide, based on negative evidence, that what you're looking for simply does not exist.

One might be inclined to reason as follows. If you're looking for something, then look very thoroughly, and if you don't find it, then it's not there. That is usually sound and sensible advice, and often "looking thoroughly" will lead to discovery.

However, the number of ways that we could overlook something that really is there is enormous. It is thus very difficult to confidently conclude that the search was thorough and that the object cannot be found. Take the case of your missing house keys. They dropped from your pocket in the car, or on the sidewalk and somebody picked them up, or you left them in the lock when you left the house, or or or .... Familiarity with the rareness illusion makes it very difficult to decide that you have searched thoroughly. If you think that the only contingencies not yet explored are too exotic to be relevant (a raven snatched them while you were daydreaming about that enchanting new employee), then think again, because you've been blinded by a rareness illusion. The number of such possibilities is so vastly unfathomable that you cannot confidently say that all of them are collectively negligible. Recognition of the rareness illusion prevents you from confidently concluding that what you are seeking simply does not exist.

Many quantitative tools grapple with the rareness illusion. We mentioned some decision theories earlier. But because the rareness illusion derives from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown, one must always beware.

Looking for an exciting vacation? The Endless Unknown is the place to go. 




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Fog of War


"War is the realm of uncertainty;
three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based 
are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."
Carl von Clausewitz, On War

What makes a great general?

Hannibal changed Carthaginian strategy from naval to land warfare, and beat the Romans in nearly every encounter. Julius Caesar commanded the undying loyalty of his officers and soldiers. Napoleon Bonaparte invented the modern concept of total war with a citizen army. Was their genius in strategy, or tactics, or logistics, or charisma? Or was it crude luck? Or was it the exploitation of uncertainty?

War is profoundly influenced by technology, social organization, human psychology and political goals. Success in war requires understanding and control of these factors. War consumes vast human and material resources and demands "genius, improvisation, and energy of mind" as Winston Churchill said. And yet, Clausewitz writes: "No other human activity is so continuously or universally bound up with chance."

Why? What does this imply about the successful military commander? What does it mean for human endeavor and history in general?

Clausewitz uses the terms "chance" and "uncertainty", sometimes interchangeably, to refer to two different concepts. An event occurs by chance if it is unexpected, or its origin is unknown, or its impact is surprising. Adverse chance events provoke "uncertainty, the psychological state of discomfort from confusion or lack of information" (Katherine Herbig, reference below).

Chance and uncertainty are dangerous because they subvert plans and diminish capabilities. Soldiers have been aware of both the dangers and the advantages of surprise since they first battered each other with sticks. Conventional military theorists aimed to avoid or ameliorate chance events by careful planning, military intelligence, training and discipline, communication, command and control. Clausewitz also recognized that steadfast faithfulness to mission and determination against adversity are essential in overcoming chance events and the debilitating effect of uncertainty. But "Clausewitz dismisses as worse than useless efforts to systematize warfare with rules and formulas. Such systems are falsely comforting, he says, because they reduce the imponderables of war to a few meagre certainties about minor matters" (Herbig). Clausewitz' most original contribution was in building a systematic theory of war in which the unavoidability of chance, and its opportunities, are central.

Why is uncertainty (in the sense of lack of knowledge) unavoidable and fundamental in war? Clausewitz' answer is expressed in his metaphor of friction. As Herbig explains:

"Friction is the decremental loss of effort and intention caused by human fallibility, compounded by danger and exhaustion. Like the mechanical phenomenon of friction that reduces the efficiency of machinery with moving parts, Clausewitz' friction reduces the efficiency of the war machine. It sums up all the little things that always go wrong to keep things from being done as easily and quickly as intended. ...

"What makes friction more than a minor annoyance in war is its confounding with chance, which multiplies friction in random, unpredictable ways."

War, like history, runs on the cumulative effect of myriad micro-events. Small failures are compounded because war is a coordinated effort of countless local but inter-dependent occurrences. Generals, like symphony conductors, choose the score and set the pace, but the orchestra plays the notes. A mis-tuned violin, or a drummer who mis-counts his entry, can ruin the show. Moses led the children of Israel out of Egypt, but he'd have looked pretty funny if they had scattered to the four winds. Moses' genius as a leader wasn't plied against Pharaoh (Moses had help there), but rather against endless bickering and revolt once they reached the desert.

Uncertainty originates at the tactical rather than the strategic level. The general can't know countless local occurrences: a lost supply plane, failed equipment here, over-reaction there, or complacency someplace else. As an example, the New York Times reported on 27 November 2011:

"The NATO air attack that killed at least two dozen Pakistani soldiers over the weekend reflected a fundamental truth about American-Pakistani relations when it comes to securing the unruly border with Afghanistan: the tactics of war can easily undercut the broader strategy that leaders of both countries say they share.

"The murky details complicated matters even more, with Pakistani officials saying the attack on two Pakistani border posts was unprovoked and Afghan officials asserting that Afghan and American commandos called in airstrikes after coming under fire from Pakistani territory."

Central control is critical, but also profoundly limited by the micro-event texture of history.

Conversely, uncertainty can be exploited at the tactical level by flexible and creative response to random opportunities. The field commander has local knowledge that enables decisive initiative: the sleeping sentinel, the bridge not destroyed, the deserted town. The general's brilliance is in forging a war machine whose components both exploit uncertainty and are resilient to surprise.

Uncertainty is central in history at large, like in war, because they both emerge from the churning of individual events. In democratic societies, legislatures pass laws and executive branches formulate and implement policies. But only active participation of the citizenry brings life and reality to laws and policies. Conversely, citizen resistance or even apathy dooms the best policies to failure. This explains the failure of democratic institutions that are imported precipitously to countries with incompatible social and political traditions. Governments formulate policy, but implementation occurs in the context of social attitudes and historical memory. You can elect legislatures and presidents but you can't elect the public. Non-centralized beliefs and actions also dominate the behavior of industrial economies. The actions of countless households, firms and investors can vitiate the best laid plans of monetary and fiscal authorities. All this adds up to Clausewitz' concept of friction: global uncertainty accumulating from countless local deviations.

In peace, like in war, the successful response to uncertainty is to face it, grapple with it, exploit it, restrain it, but never hope to abolish it. Uncertainty is inevitable, and sometimes even propitious. The propensity for war is the ugliest attribute of our species. Nonetheless, what we learn about uncertainty from the study of war applies to all our endeavors: in business, in politics and beyond. Waging peace demands the same staunchness, determination and inventive flexibility in the face of the unknown, as the successful pursuit of war.

Main source:
Katherine L. Herbig, 1989, Chance and Uncertainty in On War, in Michael Handel, ed., Clausewitz and Modern Strategy, Frank Cass, London, pp.95-116.

See also:
Peter Paret, 1976, Clausewitz and the State: The Man, His Theories, and His Times, re-issued 2007, Princeton University Press. 




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Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More

A number of articles now in press at the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences will be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Uncovering the metaphysics of psychological warfare: The social science behind the Psychological Strategy Board’s operations planning, 1951–1953,” Gabrielle Kemmis. Abstract: In April 1951 president Harry S. Truman established … Continue reading Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More




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A fascinating time capsule of human feelings toward AI | Lucy Farey-Jones

How comfortable are you with robots taking over your life? Covering a wide range of potential applications -- from the mundane (robot house cleaner) to the mischievous (robot sex partner) to the downright macabre (uploading your brain to live on after death) -- technology strategist Lucy Farey-Jones shares data-backed evidence of how our willingness to accept AI may be radically changing.




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57th Edwards Bayesian Research Conference, Feb 27-29, 2020, Fullerton, CA

SUBMISSION DEADLINE DECEMBER 13, 2019 In this conference, investigators present original research on a variety of topics related to judgment and decision making, including but not limited to: Decision making under risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity Intertemporal choice Cognitive models of judgment and decision making Mathematical and statistical methodology for analyzing behavioral data Applications of JDM […]

The post 57th Edwards Bayesian Research Conference, Feb 27-29, 2020, Fullerton, CA appeared first on Decision Science News.




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Researchers Once Found That People Believe In “Climate Change” More Than “Global Warming” — But Word Choice No Longer Seems To Matter

By Jesse Singal. Study fails to replicate 2011 result, suggesting that word choice matters less as issue has become more politicised.




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How Do Films Like ‘Joker’ Shape Attitudes Towards People With Mental Health Issues?

By Emily Reynolds. Study finds viewers had slightly more negative perceptions of people with mental illness after seeing the movie.




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AFT President Endorses Warren: 'It Would Be Great to Send a Teacher to the White House'

American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten endorsed Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign Saturday, acting in her personal capacity.




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North Carolina Awards $12 Million Dollar Grant to Improve Literacy Instruction

A $12.2 million dollar grant from the state Department of Public Instruction will go to a program based at North Carolina State University to provide additional training literacy training to teachers in 16 high-needs districts across the state.




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The War on Teachers Comes to Oklahoma

The West Virginia teachers strike is over, but the fight for teacher pay rages on, write Lawrence Baines and Jim Machell.