Event Begins: Thursday, November 14, 2024 4:00pm
Location: Institute For Social Research
Organized By: Institute for Social Research

Join us for a panel discussion featuring:
Vincent Hutchings, Hanes Walton Jr. Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Afroamerican and African Studies and Research Professor, ISR Center for Political Studies
Mara Ostfeld, Research Associate Professor, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and Faculty Associate, ISR Center for Political Studies
Josh Pasek, Professor of Communication and Media and Faculty Associate, ISR Center for Political Studies
Nicholas Valentino, Donald R. Kinder Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Research Professor, ISR Center for Political Studies

Panelists will discuss the outcomes of the 2024 US elections, exploring key trends, voter behavior, and the implications for the future of American politics.

Light refreshments will be served.

Event Begins: Thursday, November 14, 2024 1:00pm
Location:
Organized By: University Career Center

Are you an accounting major looking to learn more about theopportunities at KPMG? Are you unsure where you fall in KPMG’s recruiting timeline? If so, please join us for Accounting Chats with KPMG Recruiters!We at KPMG want to get to know you better and hear about your professional goals. During this virtual event, you will have the opportunity to meet with members of the KPMG recruiting team. We can review the KPMG recruiting process, discuss the various KPMG career paths for accounting students, and of course, answer any questions you might have.You are not required to attend the entire 2-hour event – stop by as your schedule allows!If you have any questions about the event, please don't hesitate to reach out. We hope you can join us!

What birdie Minnie golfing pewter figure by Disney Chilmark is a(n) Chilmark Studios. The Edition is Limited to Limited Edition of 950 pcs

Head five miles that way then go five miles that way...SMALLWORK CANVAS EDITION by Bob Coronato is a(n) Limited Edition. The Edition is Limited to Limited Edition of 75 pcs

Phoenix Restoration Equipment announces the release of its new, free iPhone application that will instantly calculate the psychometric data essential to restoration professionals. 

The European session is going to be once again a bit empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data points. We get the 2nd estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Both of them are old news and the market won't care much about it.

In the American session, the focus will be on the US PPI and Jobless Claims data. Yesterday's US CPI came in line with expectations and after a bit of a "sell the fact" reaction in the US Dollar, the market started to bid it again.

The CPI wasn't the main culprit though as the momentum got triggered by Fed's Logan comment saying "models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral" potentially implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US October PPI

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.0% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.

This report will be seen in light of the US CPI data yesterday as it will give us a better estimate of the US Core PCE due at the end of the month. An upside surprise might trigger some more US Dollar gains as the market could price out some more the rate cuts expected in 2025, but the December cut remains pretty much assured.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims

The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.

This week Initial Claims are expected at 223K vs. 221K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1880K vs. 1852K prior.

Central bank speakers:

• 08:30 GMT - ECB's de Guindos (dove - voter)
• 13:00 GMT/08:00 - BoE's Mann (hawk - voter)
• 14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - voter)
• 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed's Kugler (dove - voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - ECB's Schnabel (hawk - voter)
• 19:00 GMT/14:00 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)
• 20:00 GMT/15:00 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)
• 21:15 GMT/16:15 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for PPI

PPI Y/Y

• 2.4% (11%)
• 2.3% (68%) - consensus
• 2.2% (16%)
• 2.0% (5%)

PPI M/M

• 0.4% (2%)
• 0.3% (13%)
• 0.2% (74%) - consensus
• 0.1% (7%)
• 0.0% (2%)
• -0.1% (2%)

Core PPI Y/Y

• 3.1% (12%)
• 3.0% (47%) - consensus
• 2.9% (35%)
• 2.7% (6%)

Core PPI M/M

• 0.3% (57%) - consensus
• 0.2% (40%)
• 0.1% (3%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline PPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that the expectations are skewed to the downside, so a higher than expected reading would be taken as more hawkish and likely give the US Dollar another boost. Conversely, a soft print could trigger a pullback.

The US Dollar remains in an uptrend as the market continues to price out the rate cuts expected in 2025. Right now we have another 25 bps cut priced for December and just two 25 bps cuts priced in 2025 which is already much lower than the Fed's projection of four.

Therefore, there's still a couple of rate cuts to price out in 2025 if the data continues to run hot, but at that point we would need a real acceleration in inflation to have the market pricing in a rate hike. For now, the bar for rate hikes is really high as the maximum the Fed is willing to do is to pause the easing cycle.

• Fed will 'most likely' need more cuts but should 'proceed cautiously'
• If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerate
• Difficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happen
• Fed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation down
• Fed not quite back to price stability yet
• US economic activity is resilient
• Labor market cooling gradually but not weakening materially
• Sees upside risk to inflation, downside risk to employment, says financial conditions may pose biggest challenges for monetary policy
• If bond yields continue to rise, the Fed may need less-restrictive policy

Logan last spoke in late October and wasn't quite this hawkish. I think the Fed cuts in December but takes a pause after that and waits to see how things play out.

A two-day workshop on  ways to improve the recording of hate crimes  was organized on 11 and 12 July in Prishtinë/Priština by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE Mission in Kosovo and the Kosovo Police.

In addition to reinforcing their understanding of the OSCE’s approach to hate crime, workshop participants identified a series of additional improvements in the way local authorities monitor and record hate crimes. Participants also agreed to establish a permanent national mechanism to co-ordinate hate crime data collection.

"Police recording is the key point of entry for information about hate crimes into the criminal justice system. But, the police cannot operate alone," said Ales Giao Hanek, ODIHR Hate Crime Officer. "Co-ordination between all the agencies concerned is crucial, and political support will be required to make the changes identified and agreed upon by participants."

Workshop participants included Kosovo Police specialists responsible for recording and managing crime statistics from all eight policing districts. Police and Prosecution Service focal points on hate crimes took part, as well as representatives from the Kosovo Judicial Institute.

This workshop follows up on an event held in May 2015, which mapped hate crime data collection in Kosovo.

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• OSCE/ODIHR final report on the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s postponed early parliamentary elections recommends continuing electoral reform process
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• OSCE/ODIHR event in Kyiv supports dialogue platform in Verkhovna Rada on parliamentary ethics

Addressing the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna on 2 June 2016, OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities Astrid Thors described country engagement and highlighted the disturbing increase in hate speech.

The statement covered the High Commissioner’s activities since her last statement to the Permanent Council in November 2015. During this period Thors visited Kyrgyzstan, Serbia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova.

The High Commissioner expressed concern about the increase in hate speech targeting national minorities. Thors called for renewed efforts to tackle hate speech in order to prevent tensions and to promote integration with respect for diversity.

Thors also informed the Permanent Council about the work her institution is doing together with researchers to identify best practices that highlight the bridge building potential of national minorities in diverse societies.

The full statement can be found here.

Related Stories

• OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities holds fifth regional summer school on multilingual and multicultural education in Central Asia
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• OSCE High Commissioner encourages inclusive approach to integration and education issues in Moldova and welcomes joint working group on Gagauzia

WARSAW, 30 June 2016 – Michael Georg Link, Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), expressed his concern following the rise in hate incidents reported to the police in the United Kingdom following the 23 June referendum vote to leave the European Union.

"These manifestations of hate and intolerance have a negative impact on the whole of British society, undermining the security of minority and immigrant communities. The current political climate in the United Kingdom provides absolutely no justification for racism and xenophobia," said Director Link.

He also commended the strong national response by Prime Minister David Cameron and other national leaders. "By publicly denouncing these incidents, the authorities have sent a strong message that bias motivated attacks have no place in the United Kingdom. I add my voice to those calling for the swift identification and prosecution of the perpetrators."

The National Police Chiefs’ Council reported a 57 per cent increase in reporting to True Vision, the online hate crime reporting site run by the police, between 24 and 27 June, compared to the same time in May 2016. ODIHR has also received reports of hate crimes and expressions of concern about the safety of people living in the United Kingdom.

Related Stories

• ODIHR Director and IHRA Chair on Roma and Sinti genocide commemoration day: greater effort needed to protect memorial sites and ensure victims dignity
• OSCE/ODIHR Director Michael Link expresses shock over Orlando shootings, commends calls for unity in face of hatred and terror
• OSCE workshop in Kosovo focuses on improving the recording of hate crimes

A two-day workshop on  ways to improve the recording of hate crimes  was organized on 11 and 12 July in Prishtinë/Priština by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the OSCE Mission in Kosovo and the Kosovo Police.

In addition to reinforcing their understanding of the OSCE’s approach to hate crime, workshop participants identified a series of additional improvements in the way local authorities monitor and record hate crimes. Participants also agreed to establish a permanent national mechanism to co-ordinate hate crime data collection.

"Police recording is the key point of entry for information about hate crimes into the criminal justice system. But, the police cannot operate alone," said Ales Giao Hanek, ODIHR Hate Crime Officer. "Co-ordination between all the agencies concerned is crucial, and political support will be required to make the changes identified and agreed upon by participants."

Workshop participants included Kosovo Police specialists responsible for recording and managing crime statistics from all eight policing districts. Police and Prosecution Service focal points on hate crimes took part, as well as representatives from the Kosovo Judicial Institute.

This workshop follows up on an event held in May 2015, which mapped hate crime data collection in Kosovo.

Related Stories

• Police, prosecutors confront hate crime against people with disabilities at OSCE/ODIHR workshop in Croatia
• OSCE/ODIHR event at European Parliament highlights role of civil society coalitions in responding to anti-Semitism, discrimination and intolerance
• OSCE/ODIHR delivers workshop on understanding and countering hate crime for civil society organizations in Romania

The OSCE Mission to Skopje organized a workshop on 23 June 2016 for 35 police managers from the Sector of Internal Affairs on identification, prevention and investigation of hate crimes.

The aim of the workshop was to strengthen the capacity of police officers to identify hate crimes and provide responses in line with democratic policing principles and international human rights standards. 

This workshop complemented other previous and ongoing activities of the Mission in this area which are implemented in co-operation with national authorities.

The event was the first in a series of eight workshops which will be held in each sector for internal affairs in the country.

Related Stories

• OSCE Mission to Skopje organizes two-day workshop on multi-ethnic policing
• OSCE Mission to Skopje organizes workshop for national Police Union on countering gender-based discrimination
• OSCE Mission to Skopje supports roundtable discussion on the role of women in creating safer communities

Addressing the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna on 2 June 2016, OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities Astrid Thors described country engagement and highlighted the disturbing increase in hate speech.

The statement covered the High Commissioner’s activities since her last statement to the Permanent Council in November 2015. During this period Thors visited Kyrgyzstan, Serbia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova.

The High Commissioner expressed concern about the increase in hate speech targeting national minorities. Thors called for renewed efforts to tackle hate speech in order to prevent tensions and to promote integration with respect for diversity.

Thors also informed the Permanent Council about the work her institution is doing together with researchers to identify best practices that highlight the bridge building potential of national minorities in diverse societies.

The full statement can be found here.

Related Stories

• OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities holds fifth regional summer school on multilingual and multicultural education in Central Asia
• Language rights, participation, security and access to justice fundamental to welfare of communities in Kosovo, says High Commissioner Thors
• OSCE High Commissioner encourages inclusive approach to integration and education issues in Moldova and welcomes joint working group on Gagauzia

It's been a long wait for a new installment in the Stalker franchise, and after multiple delays—the most recent of which was to "fix more 'unexpected anomalies' (or simply 'bugs', as you call them)," we're finally just one week away from the release of Stalker 2: Heart of Chornobyl. Now that we've entered the presumed homestretch (barring

How do you rate Mario Cristobal's game management in the Hurricanes' loss to Georgia Tech? Take our poll and make your voice heard.

UK Startup Naturbeads Secures Series A Round to Further Pioneering Technology That Addresses Worldwide Microplastic Pollution  Business Wire

Approach messages from strangers with caution.

Tracking what youve accomplished, not just whats next.

With the help of the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have discovered an exoplanet with a sulfur-rich atmosphere, a hint of volcanic activity.

You may have seen a Reddit post about how ChatGPT saved a person's life, but it turns out the original poster just asked ChatGPT to make something up.

Stephen King has posted on X to respond to the rumor that Elon Musk banned him.

4B is a South Korean feminist movement. American women have been talking about it since the election.

President-elect Donald Trump is starting to round out his new administration and is already making unprecedented changes.

Trello Card Aging Power-Up – Older cards that you’ve neglected start to visibly look aged.  In “Pirate Mode” they crackle and tear.

/via Lauren Miller

Google Forms – Can tell from the language in your question that you will want checkboxes, and changes the question type automatically.

/via Jack Hallahan

El 29 de octubre en torno a las 18.00 horas la Generalitat ya pidió a la Comunidad de Madrid la textualidad del mensaje ES-Alert enviado a la población madrileña el 3 de septiembre de 2023 Leer

[The Conversation Africa] Turmoil following presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique has been severe. Preliminary official results from the 2024 elections indicated a landslide win by the ruling party, Frelimo. These results are widely contested, with various reports of irregularities.

As a Latina mother and marketer, raising bilingual children in today's media landscape is both a joy and a challenge. Growing up, shows like Dora the Explorer didn't just entertain me--they helped me navigate a complex world between two languages. While English wasn't my first language, those shows gave me a sense of belonging in...

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual […]

Stephen Colbert spent the majority of his opening monologue on Wednesday night’s “Late Show” talking about President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet choices so far, including Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida as attorney general and Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence. “Almost eight years ago, we all saw [Trump] saunter down those Capitol steps, put his […]

[CW: strong, bleak/dark/violent humour, profanity] Frankie Boyle's American Autopsy was recorded shortly after the 2016 US election, and includes contributions from guests Sara Pascoe, Katherine Ryan, Michelle Wolf, Desiree Burch, and (unfortunately) Richard Osman. The show is based around three propositions concerning America, voted on by Americans in the audience. Link originally from a late 2016 post.

The key to taking effective action in a Trump world is to avoid perpetuating the autocrat's goals of fear, isolation, exhaustion and disorientation.

You can view the author talking about this article here (or watch the whole episode, the first hour and a half is very informative). You can also try your hand at a choose your own adventure style playing out of Trumps second term.

Some friends and I saw what looked like mini Halloween or Christmas lights, strung over some bushes as decoration. The light was solid orange, but when we walked by, or even just moved our heads, a green glow appeared behind or alongside each one. It wasn't an afterimage - it was clearly something that was coming from the bulbs. They didn't change color on their own, or twinkle or fade or have any other effects.

I'd really like to find some of these, not necessarily orange and green, but small lights where a different colored glow appears with movement. Is this something anyone is familiar with, or can suggest a search that would find them?

* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42129064 * https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/using-generative-ai-to-teach-computing-insights-from-research/

A Los Angeles middle school teacher has been charged after allegedly grooming her 13-year-old student into a sexual relationship for over a year, with prosecutors saying she left her husband to be in "love" with the child.

The post Los Angeles D.A.: Teacher Left Husband to Be in ‘Love’ with Student, 13, That She Was Grooming appeared first on Breitbart.

This photogenic, red-and-green whole fish from Contramar in Mexico City has been replicated at restaurants across the country, and for good reason.

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When Deion Sanders and his CU Buffs host Utah, Folsom Field will welcome an old friend home.