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Breaking the Habit: Why Major Oil Companies Are Not ‘Paris-Aligned’

Invitation Only Research Event

23 October 2019 - 8:30am to 10:00am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Andrew Grant, Carbon Tracker Initiative
Chair: Siân Bradley, Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources, Chatham House

The investment community is increasingly seeking to assess the alignment of their portfolios with the Paris Agreement. In a recent update to their Two Degrees of Separation report, Carbon Tracker assessed the capital expenditure of listed oil and gas producers against ‘well below’ 2C targets, and for the first time, against short-term actions at the project level.

The speaker will present the key findings of the report and will argue that every oil major is betting heavily against a low-carbon world by investing in projects that are contrary to the Paris goals.

This roundtable discussion will further explore the report findings and consider what investors, regulators and oil and gas companies can do to encourage alignment  with the Paris Agreement ahead of 2020.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule




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Same Old Politics Will Not Solve Iraq Water Crisis

15 April 2020

Georgia Cooke

Project Manager, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Dr Renad Mansour

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme; Project Director, Iraq Initiative

Glada Lahn

Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
Addressing Iraq’s water crisis should be a priority for any incoming prime minister as it is damaging the country’s attempts to rebuild. But successive governments have allowed the problem to fester.

2020-04-15-Iraq-Water

Punting in the marshes south of the Iraqi city of Ammarah. Photo by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad/Getty Images.

Historically, Iraq lay claim to one of the most abundant water supplies in the Middle East. But the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has reduced by up to 40% since the 1970s, due in part to the actions of neighbouring countries, in particular Turkey, upstream.

Rising temperatures and reduced rainfall due to climate change are also negatively impacting Iraq’s water reserves. Evaporation from dams and reservoirs is estimated to lose the country up to 8 billion cubic metres of water every year.

A threat to peace and stability

Shortages have dried up previously fertile land, increasing poverty in agricultural areas. Shortages have also served to fuel conflict: communities faced with successive droughts and government inertia proved to be easy targets for ISIS recruiters, who lured farmers into joining them by offering money and food to feed their families. Economic hardship for those whose livelihoods relied upon river water has also driven rural to urban migration, putting significant strain on already over-populated towns and cities, exacerbating housing, job and electricity shortages, and widening the gap between haves and have-nots.

But scarcity isn’t the most crucial element of Iraq’s water crisis – contamination is. Decades of local government mismanagement, corrupt practices and a lack of regulation of dumping (it is estimated up to 70% of Iraq’s industrial waste is dumped directly into water) has left approximately three in every five citizens without a reliable source of potable water.

In 2018, 118,000 residents of Basra province were hospitalised with symptoms brought on by drinking contaminated water, which not only put a spotlight on the inadequacies of a crumbling healthcare system but sparked mass protests and a subsequent violent crackdown.

The water crisis is also undermining the stability of the country’s federal governance model, by occasionally sparking disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government, as well as between governorates in the south.

The crisis is both a symptom and a cause of poor governance. Iraq is stuck in a cycle whereby government inaction causes shortages and contamination, which result in economic losses, reduced food supply, increased prices and widespread poor health. This in turn leads to increasing levels of poverty, higher demand on services and civil unrest, increasing the pressure on a weak, dysfunctional system of government.

What can be done?

The first priority should be modernising existing water-management infrastructure - a relic of a time when the problem was an excess rather than a shortage of water (the last time Iraq’s flood defences were required was 1968). Bureaucratic hurdles, widespread corruption and an endless cycle of other crises taking precedent prevent good initiatives from being implemented or scaled up.

Diversifying energy sources to improve provision is crucial. Baghdad has a sewage treatment plant that originally ran on its own electricity source, but this capacity was destroyed in 1991 and was never replaced. The city continues to suffer from dangerous levels of water pollution because the electricity supply from the grid is insufficient to power the plant. Solar energy has great potential in sun-drenched Iraq to bridge the gaping hole in energy provision, but successive governments have chosen to focus on fossil fuels rather than promoting investment to grow the renewables sector.

Heightened tension with upstream Turkey could turn water into another cause of regional conflict. But, if approached differently, collaboration between Iraq and its neighbour could foster regional harmony.

Turkey’s elevated geography and cooler climate mean its water reserves suffer 75% less evaporation than Iraq’s. Given that Turkey’s top energy priority is the diversification of its supply of imported hydrocarbons, a win-win deal could see Turkey exchange access to its water-management infrastructure for delivery of reduced cost energy supplies from Iraq.

German-French cooperation on coal and steel in the 1950s and the evolution of economic integration that followed might provide a model for how bilateral cooperation over one issue could result in cooperation with other regional players (in this case Iran and Syria) on a range of other issues. This kind of model would need to consider the future of energy, whereby oil and gas would be replaced by solar-power exports.

These solutions have been open to policymakers for years and yet they have taken little tangible action. While there are leaders and bureaucrats with the will to act, effective action is invariably blocked by a complex and opaque political system replete with vested interests in maintaining power and wealth via a weak state and limited services from central government.

Breaking the cycle

To break this cycle, Iraq needs a group of professional and able actors outside of government to work with willing elements of the state bureaucracy as a taskforce to pressure for action and accountability. Publishing the recommendations from a hitherto withheld report produced in the aftermath of Basra’s 2018 heath crisis would be a great start.

In time, this taskforce could champion the prioritisation of water on the national agenda, the implementation of infrastructure upgrades, and hold more productive conversations with neighbour states.

With such a high degree of state fragmentation and dysfunction in Iraq, looking to the central government to provide leadership will not yield results. Engagement with a coalition of non-state actors can begin to address the water crisis and also open a dialogue around new models of governance for other critical issues. This might even be a starting point for rewriting the tattered social contract in Iraq.

This piece is based on insights and discussion at a roundtable event, Conflict and the Water Crisis in Iraq, held at Chatham House on March 9 as part of the Iraq Initiative.




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Low molecular weight heparin does not prevent VTE after knee arthroscopy, studies show




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How to write an operation note




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Emergency departments must not return to pre-covid days of overcrowding and lack of safety, says college




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Crisis at the Border? Not by the Numbers

Monthly apprehension statistics at the Southwest border have become a preoccupation for the Trump administration, which compares the 2018 numbers to 2017 and declares a crisis. Yet it was 2017, when the "Trump effect" temporarily paused illegal crossings, that was the outlier. Recent trends have reverted to the pattern seen in 2016, a result notable at a time of very low U.S. unemployment, as this commentary explores.




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A Wall Cannot Fix Problems at Border; Smart Solutions for Asylum Crisis Can

What President Trump calls a border crisis is in fact a crisis in the asylum system—one worsened at every turn by his administration’s harsh policies and rhetoric. Rather than spend $5.7 billion on a wall, it would be far more effective to use the money to retool an overwhelmed asylum system, adapt outmatched border enforcement infrastructure to respond to the changing composition of arrivals, and work cooperatively with Mexico to tackle the factors propelling Central Americans to flee.




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To Stay or Not To Stay: The Calculus for International STEM Students in the United States

More than 1 million international students were in the United States in 2015-16, a significant share of them in science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) fields. While countries increasingly are vying for this population, these individuals face a complex choice upon graduation: to stay or leave? This article examines international STEM students in the United States and the motivations underlying their postgraduation plans.




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With Engaged Parenting, "Terrible Twos" Are Not Inevitable

Source:

Parents should not feel pressured to make their young children undertake structured learning or achieve specific tasks, particularly during lockdown. A new study of children under the age of two has found that parents who take a flexible approach to their child's learning can minimize behavioral problems during toddlerhood.






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Late Relapse of Diabetes After Bariatric Surgery: Not Rare, but Not a Failure

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the status of cardiometabolic risk factors after late relapse of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to identify factors predicting relapse after initial diabetes remission following bariatric surgery to construct prediction models for clinical practice.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Outcomes of 736 patients with T2DM who underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) or sleeve gastrectomy (SG) at an academic center (2004–2012) and had ≥5 years’ glycemic follow-up were assessed. Of 736 patients, 425 (58%) experienced diabetes remission (HbA1c <6.5% [48 mmol/mol] with patients off medications) in the 1st year after surgery. These 425 patients were followed for a median of 8 years (range 5–14) to characterize late relapse of diabetes.

RESULTS

In 136 (32%) patients who experienced late relapse, a statistically significant improvement in glycemic control, number of diabetes medications including insulin use, blood pressure, and lipid profile was still observed at long-term. Independent baseline predictors of late relapse were preoperative number of diabetes medications, duration of T2DM before surgery, and SG versus RYGB. Furthermore, patients who relapsed lost less weight during the 1st year after surgery and regained more weight afterward. Prediction models were constructed and externally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

While late relapse of T2DM is a real phenomenon (one-third of our cohort), it should not be considered a failure, as the trajectory of the disease and its related cardiometabolic risk factors is changed favorably after bariatric surgery. Earlier surgical intervention, RYGB (compared with SG) and more weight loss (less late weight regain) are associated with less diabetes relapse in the long-term.




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Targeting CXCR1/2 Does Not Improve Insulin Secretion After Pancreatic Islet Transplantation: A Phase 3, Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial in Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Reparixin is an inhibitor of CXCR1/2 chemokine receptor shown to be an effective anti-inflammatory adjuvant in a pilot clinical trial in allotransplant recipients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-assignment study (NCT01817959) was conducted in recipients of islet allotransplants randomized (2:1) to reparixin or placebo in addition to immunosuppression. Primary outcome was the area under the curve (AUC) for C-peptide during the mixed-meal tolerance test at day 75 ± 5 after the first and day 365 ± 14 after the last transplant. Secondary end points included insulin independence and standard measures of glycemic control.

RESULTS

The intention-to-treat analysis did not show a significant difference in C-peptide AUC at both day 75 (27 on reparixin vs. 18 on placebo, P = 0.99) and day 365 (24 on reparixin vs. 15 on placebo, P = 0.71). There was no statistically significant difference between treatment groups at any time point for any secondary variable. Analysis of patient subsets showed a trend for a higher percentage of subjects retaining insulin independence for 1 year after a single islet infusion in patients receiving reparixin as compared with patients receiving placebo (26.7% vs. 0%, P = 0.09) when antithymocyte globulin was used as induction immunosuppression.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first double-blind randomized trial, islet transplantation data obtained with reparixin do not support a role of CXCR1/2 inhibition in preventing islet inflammation-mediated damage.




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Brooks Koepka learned not to smack talk Michael Jordan on golf course

PGA Tour star Brooks Koepka said he'll no longer smack talk Michael Jordan on the golf course after he lost a round to the basketball legend.




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Man waiting to cash in $1,000 lottery ticket wins another $177,777

A Virginia man waiting to cash in his $1,000 winning lottery ticket ended up winning an additional $177,777 before collecting his prize.




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Framingham, SCORE, and DECODE Risk Equations Do Not Provide Reliable Cardiovascular Risk Estimates in Type 2 Diabetes

Ruth L. Coleman
May 1, 2007; 30:1292-1293
BR Cardiovascular and Metabolic Risk




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A Low-Glycemic Load Diet Facilitates Greater Weight Loss in Overweight Adults With High Insulin Secretion but Not in Overweight Adults With Low Insulin Secretion in the CALERIE Trial

Anastassios G. Pittas
Dec 1, 2005; 28:2939-2941
BR Clinical Care/Education/Nutrition




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Liraglutide, a Long-Acting Human Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Analog, Given as Monotherapy Significantly Improves Glycemic Control and Lowers Body Weight Without Risk of Hypoglycemia in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Tina Vilsbøll
Jun 1, 2007; 30:1608-1610
BR Emerging Treatments and Technologies




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Insulinotropic Action of Glucagonlike Peptide-I-(7-37) in Diabetic and Nondiabetic Subjects

David M Nathan
Feb 1, 1992; 15:270-276
Short Report




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Precipitation of Autoimmune Diabetes With Anti-PD-1 Immunotherapy

Jing Hughes
Apr 1, 2015; 38:e55-e57
e-Letters: Observations




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PIONEER 1: Randomized Clinical Trial of the Efficacy and Safety of Oral Semaglutide Monotherapy in Comparison With Placebo in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

Vanita R. Aroda
Sep 1, 2019; 42:1724-1732
Emerging Therapies: Drugs and Regimens




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Vasodilatory Actions of Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Are Preserved in Skeletal and Cardiac Muscle Microvasculature but Not in Conduit Artery in Obese Humans With Vascular Insulin Resistance

OBJECTIVE

Obesity is associated with microvascular insulin resistance, which is characterized by impaired insulin-mediated microvascular recruitment. Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) recruits skeletal and cardiac muscle microvasculature, and this action is preserved in insulin-resistant rodents. We aimed to examine whether GLP-1 recruits microvasculature and improves the action of insulin in obese humans.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Fifteen obese adults received intravenous infusion of either saline or GLP-1 (1.2 pmol/kg/min) for 150 min with or without a euglycemic insulin clamp (1 mU/kg/min) superimposed over the last 120 min. Skeletal and cardiac muscle microvascular blood volume (MBV), flow velocity and blood flow, brachial artery diameter and blood flow, and pulse wave velocity (PWV) were determined.

RESULTS

Insulin failed to change MBV or flow in either skeletal or cardiac muscle, confirming the presence of microvascular insulin resistance. GLP-1 infusion alone increased MBV by ~30% and ~40% in skeletal and cardiac muscle, respectively, with no change in flow velocity, leading to a significant increase in microvascular blood flow in both skeletal and cardiac muscle. Superimposition of insulin to GLP-1 infusion did not further increase MBV or flow in either skeletal or cardiac muscle but raised the steady-state glucose infusion rate by ~20%. Insulin, GLP-1, and GLP-1 + insulin infusion did not alter brachial artery diameter and blood flow or PWV. The vasodilatory actions of GLP-1 are preserved in both skeletal and cardiac muscle microvasculature, which may contribute to improving metabolic insulin responses and cardiovascular outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In obese humans with microvascular insulin resistance, GLP-1’s vasodilatory actions are preserved in both skeletal and cardiac muscle microvasculature, which may contribute to improving metabolic insulin responses and cardiovascular outcomes.




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International Experience Suggests Safe Third-Country Agreement Would Not Solve the U.S.-Mexico Border Crisis

While safe third-country agreements appear to hold the potential of deterring new asylum claims, experience suggests this may be a false promise. As the Trump administration explores the possibility of such agreements with Mexico and Guatemala, this commentary examines the evidence of safe third-country arrangements in Europe, finding them difficult to enforce and playing little role in deterring new claims.




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Coronavirus Is Spreading across Borders, But It Is Not a Migration Problem

Travel bans, border closures, and other migration management tools did not prove effective at blocking COVID-19 from spreading across international borders. Yet as governments have shifted from containment to mitigation with the coronavirus now in community transmission in many countries, these restrictions are a logical part of the policy toolkit in the context of social distancing and restricting all forms of human movement, as this commentary explores.




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Missouri Dental Association notches win

Thanks to the advocacy efforts of the Missouri Dental Association, a managed care organization has agreed to remove an authorization tool it was requiring dentists to use prior to using sedation.




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Study: Dental fluorosis generally less noticeable over time

Results from a University of Iowa College of Dentistry study suggest that mild and moderate dental fluorosis is generally less noticeable over time, validating the beliefs of some supporters of community water fluoridation that there have been overestimates of fluorosis prevalence made by anti-fluoridation activists.




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Study: Evidence does not support classifying fluoride as cognitive neurodevelopmental hazard

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine announced March 5 that it does not find that the National Toxicology Program adequately supported its conclusion that fluoride is “presumed” to be a cognitive neurodevelopmental hazard to humans.




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Cancer patients on Medicaid might not benefit from experimental treatments, study finds

Cancer patients on Medicaid or who don't have insurance benefit less from experimental treatments, even if they get into clinical trials, a study published Thursday by JAMA Network Open has found.




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Combination Therapy With Canagliflozin Plus Liraglutide Exerts Additive Effect on Weight Loss, but Not on HbA1c, in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of combination therapy with canagliflozin plus liraglutide on HbA1c, endogenous glucose production (EGP), and body weight versus each therapy alone.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Forty-five patients with poorly controlled (HbA1c 7–11%) type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on metformin with or without sulfonylurea received a 9-h measurement of EGP with [3-3H]glucose infusion, after which they were randomized to receive 1) liraglutide 1.2 mg/day (LIRA); 2) canagliflozin 100 mg/day (CANA); or 3) liraglutide 1.2 mg plus canagliflozin 100 mg (CANA/LIRA) for 16 weeks. At 16 weeks, the EGP measurement was repeated.

RESULTS

The mean decrease from baseline to 16 weeks in HbA1c was –1.67 ± 0.29% (P = 0.0001), –0.89 ± 0.24% (P = 0.002), and –1.44 ± 0.39% (P = 0.004) in patients receiving CANA/LIRA, CANA, and LIRA, respectively. The decrease in body weight was –6.0 ± 0.8 kg (P < 0.0001), –3.5 ± 0.5 kg (P < 0.0001), and –1.9 ± 0.8 kg (P = 0.03), respectively. CANA monotherapy caused a 9% increase in basal rate of EGP (P < 0.05), which was accompanied by a 50% increase (P < 0.05) in plasma glucagon-to-insulin ratio. LIRA monotherapy reduced plasma glucagon concentration and inhibited EGP. In CANA/LIRA-treated patients, EGP increased by 15% (P < 0.05), even though the plasma insulin response was maintained at baseline and the CANA-induced rise in plasma glucagon concentration was blocked.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that liraglutide failed to block the increase in EGP caused by canagliflozin despite blocking the rise in plasma glucagon and preventing the decrease in plasma insulin concentration caused by canagliflozin. The failure of liraglutide to prevent the increase in EGP caused by canagliflozin explains the lack of additive effect of these two agents on HbA1c.




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Unlike 'Jurassic Park,' real raptors may not have hunted in packs

While the coordinated attacks of Velociraptor dinosaurs depicted in the 1993 blockbuster made for compelling movie viewing, a study published this week claims raptors most likely hunted solo, not in packs.




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Britons told not to expect big changes in lockdown as death toll passes 31,000

There are no major changes coming to Britain's current coronavirus lockdown orders anytime soon, a government official said Friday as health officials reported 626 more deaths from COVID-19.




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Podcast: It’s See You Later, Not Goodbye

  All good things must come to an end. And today is one of those days. In this episode of The Not Crazy Podcast, we say a sad farewell to...




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[ Dogs ] Open Question : I've come to a conclusion,Dogs section on YA is not worth my time or energy, it is bad enough it is full of what I assume are teenagers?

playing games but now I am being repeatedly harassed and accused of being a troll named Sophie. Well you all can just keep this grimy pool. I am not wasting my time or energy. Enjoy yourselves.




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[ Yahoo Answers ] Open Question : Nowadays many of legit questions are getting removed without notice. There's no appeal options also. How can I report about these mistakes?

*my legit questions




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[ Investing ] Open Question : What does an investor do when his stock notifies him...the company confirms a record date for a forward two for one stock split?




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[ Politics ] Open Question : Why do people in Chicago kill themselves for nothing?




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[ Royalty ] Open Question : Why do males often name their male kids the same name, and a number, but females do not do the same for their daughters?

(I am in the USA). There was 8 Henry s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_VIII_of_England




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[ Religion & Spirituality ] Open Question : Atheists, I always thought Roger Daltrey led the WHO, and not this Ted Ross guy. Who is he anyway? What instrument does he play?

What band was he with before?




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Longevity Gene May Protect against a Notorious Alzheimer's Risk Gene

Some nominally high-risk individuals may have a lower chance of developing dementia than once thought

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com





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In Politics, Aim for the Heart, Not the Head

In 1935, researchers from Columbia University fanned out around the city of Allentown, Pa., and handed out leaflets ahead of local and state elections. What residents did not know was that they were part of an experiment in political persuasion -- an experiment whose results came to mind last week...




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Best Supporting? Maybe Not.

Let's say someone stuck a microphone in your face and gave you 45 seconds to say something meaningful to a billion people. Let's say, moreover, that this is the only chance you will ever have to directly address the entire world.




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Disagree About Iraq? You're Not Just Wrong -- You're Evil.

The conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby last week gave Americans a chance to pick at the scab of what has become a favored obsession -- the debate over the motives of the Bush administration in the run-up to the war in Iraq.




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Wariness, Not Hatred, Keeps Civil Wars Raging

Here is a measure of the state of the war in Iraq: The number of Iraqis dying each month now rivals the total number of people who died in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.




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Campaign Contributions Change Priorities, Not Beliefs

There are two ways to think about the staggering amounts of money given by special interest groups to politicians -- the type of contributions that were detailed for the last quarter in reports filed yesterday by presidential candidates and members of Congress.




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Confessions Not Always Clad in Iron

In the courts and in Congress, Sen. Larry Craig is fighting to withdraw his guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge that may suggest he tried to solicit sex from a man in June at a Minneapolis airport bathroom. Rather than resign yesterday, as the senator had promised and Republicans had hoped, Craig...




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Big Political Donors Just Looking for Favors? Apparently Not.

The Center for Responsive Politics recently estimated that it cost $5.8 billion to finance the 2008 general elections. To most people that is a staggeringly large sum and evidence of the profoundly corrupting role that money plays in politics, but to some very smart political watchers, the better...




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To be or not to be there: Conferencing in the age of flygskam

I didn’t go to the joint meetings (JMM) this year. This is despite the following good reasons I had to go:  I’m in my fifth year, applying for jobs, and this is the time when you’re supposed to get out … Continue reading




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Turkey-Style Deals Will Not Solve the Next EU Migration Crisis

The EU-Turkey deal has been credited with helping to end the migration crisis of 2015-16, and after two years in force it has fostered a myth that such deals are cure-alls. They are not, as this MPI Europe commentary explores. Recent EU responses place great emphasis on transit routes to Europe. But what if the next major event is a different kind of shock altogether?




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Legal Migration for Work and Training: Mobility Options to Europe for Those Not in Need of Protection

As EU Member States struggle to deliver on the European Union's call to expand channels for foreign workers, they should focus more on attracting the middle- and low-skilled third-country nationals needed by the labor market yet for whom few opportunities for admission exist. They also would do well to consider their migration policies in light of labor market, foreign policy, and development objectives, rather than as a means to reduce irregular migration, this report cautions.




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Expansion of legal migration opportunities for third-country nationals, particularly in middle- and low-skill sectors, holds potential but should not be oversold as migration management tool, new study cautions

BRUSSELS — While the European Union has called on Member States to expand channels for foreign workers as a way to meet labour market needs and potentially tackle spontaneous migration, they have struggled to deliver on this pledge. To date, policies have focused more on attracting high-skilled workers, but less attention has been paid to admission of low- or middle-skilled nationals. Policymakers would do well not to overestimate the potential of legal channels to reduce irregular migration.




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Beetroot and pinot risotto with king prawns

Four of my favourite ingredients combined into one dish!