This is the 22nd installment of The Rationalist, my column for the Times of India.

Trade wars are on the rise, and it’s enough to get any nationalist all het up and excited. Earlier this week, Narendra Modi’s government announced that it would start imposing tariffs on 28 US products starting today. This is a response to similar treatment towards us from the US.

There is one thing I would invite you to consider: Trump and Modi are not engaged in a war with each other. Instead, they are waging war on their own people.

Let’s unpack that a bit. Part of the reason Trump came to power is that he provided simple and wrong answers for people’s problems. He responded to the growing jobs crisis in middle America with two explanations: one, foreigners are coming and taking your jobs; two, your jobs are being shipped overseas.

Both explanations are wrong but intuitive, and they worked for Trump. (He is stupid enough that he probably did not create these narratives for votes but actually believes them.) The first of those leads to the demonising of immigrants. The second leads to a demonising of trade. Trump has acted on his rhetoric after becoming president, and a modern US version of our old ‘Indira is India’ slogan might well be, “Trump is Tariff. Tariff is Trump.”

Contrary to the fulminations of the economically illiterate, all tariffs are bad, without exception. Let me illustrate this with an example. Say there is a fictional product called Brump. A local Brump costs Rs 100. Foreign manufacturers appear and offer better Brumps at a cheaper price, say Rs 90. Consumers shift to foreign Brumps.

Manufacturers of local Brumps get angry, and form an interest group. They lobby the government – or bribe it with campaign contributions – to impose a tariff on import of Brumps. The government puts a 20-rupee tariff. The foreign Brumps now cost Rs 110, and people start buying local Brumps again. This is a good thing, right? Local businesses have been helped, and local jobs have been saved.

But this is only the seen effect. The unseen effect of this tariff is that millions of Brump buyers would have saved Rs 10-per-Brump if there were no tariffs. This money would have gone out into the economy, been part of new demand, generated more jobs. Everyone would have been better off, and the overall standard of living would have been higher.

That brings to me to an essential truth about tariffs. Every tariff is a tax on your own people. And every intervention in markets amounts to a distribution of wealth from the people at large to specific interest groups. (In other words, from the poor to the rich.) The costs of this are dispersed and invisible – what is Rs 10 to any of us? – and the benefits are large and worth fighting for: Local manufacturers of Brumps can make crores extra. Much modern politics amounts to manufacturers of Brumps buying politicians to redistribute money from us to them.

There are second-order effects of protectionism as well. When the US imposes tariffs on other countries, those countries may respond by imposing tariffs back. Raw materials for many goods made locally are imported, and as these become expensive, so do those goods. That quintessential American product, the iPhone, uses parts from 43 countries. As local products rise in price because of expensive foreign parts, prices rise, demand goes down, jobs are lost, and everyone is worse off.

Trump keeps talking about how he wants to ‘win’ at trade, but trade is not a zero-sum game. The most misunderstood term in our times is probably ‘trade-deficit’. A country has a trade deficit when it imports more than what it exports, and Trump thinks of that as a bad thing. It is not. I run a trade deficit with my domestic help and my local grocery store. I buy more from them than they do from me. That is fine, because we all benefit. It is a win-win game.

Similarly, trade between countries is really trade between the people of both countries – and people trade with each other because they are both better off. To interfere in that process is to reduce the value created in their lives. It is immoral. To modify a slogan often identified with libertarians like me, ‘Tariffs are Theft.’

These trade wars, thus, carry a touch of the absurd. Any leader who imposes tariffs is imposing a tax on his own people. Just see the chain of events: Trump taxes the American people. In retaliation, Modi taxes the Indian people. Trump raises taxes. Modi raises taxes. Nationalists in both countries cheer. Interests groups in both countries laugh their way to the bank.

What kind of idiocy is this? How long will this lose-lose game continue?

The India Uncut Blog © 2010 Amit Varma. All rights reserved.
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HONG KONG — Merchants and consumers alike found the Singles' Day shopping festival Monday less shiny than in years past as e-commerce firms look abroad for growth. The annual event named by the numeric form of its Nov. 11 date was started by e-commerce platform Alibaba, which offered attractive discounts to entice shoppers to spend big. The extravaganza has since expanded to other platforms like JD.com and Pinduoduo in China as well as abroad. While Singles’ Day was previously a one-day event, shopping platforms in China now kickstart the festival weeks ahead to drum up sales volume. The festival has also traditionally been regarded as a barometer of consumer sentiment. But amid China’s lagging domestic economy, dragged down by a real estate crisis and deflationary pressures, consumers no longer go all out on purchases during the shopping extravaganza. “I only spent a few hundred yuan on daily necessities,” said Wang Haihua, who owns a fitness center in Beijing. Wang said that the prices offered on e-commerce platforms during Singles’ Day are not necessarily cheaper than usual. “They’re all tricks and we’ve seen through it over the years,” she said. Zhang Jiewei, a 34-year-old who runs a barber shop in Xi’an city, echoed Wang’s sentiments, saying that he no longer trust Singles’ Day promotions as some merchants tend to raise the usual price of a product before offering a discount, giving consumers the illusion they are getting a deal. “I used to buy a lot two or three years ago and I even purchased a mobile phone (during Singles’ Day),” he said. “I stopped doing that following the pandemic because of less income. I am not going to buy anything this year,” Zhang added. Some experts say that Beijing’s recent stimulus measures have had little impact to boost consumer confidence. “People are not interested in spending and are cutting back on big-ticket items,” said Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of China Market Research Group in Shanghai. “Since October 2022, the weak economy means that everything has been on discount year-round, 11.11 is not going to bring in more discounts that the month before.” Rein said he expects low growth for the Singles’ Day shopping festival as consumers tighten their spending in anticipation of difficult economic times ahead. Categories such as sportswear and fitness, however, have been doing well as customers “trade down a Gucci bag for Lululemon sportswear,” he said. Platforms like JD.com and Alibaba, which operates e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, previously used to publish the value of transactions made during the festival, but have since stopped revealing the total figure. While yearly growth used to be in the double digits, estimates of recent figures have dwindled to low single-digit growth. Syntun, a data provider, estimated that last year’s gross merchandising volume sales across major e-commerce platforms grew just 2% to $156.40 billion, a far cry from double-digit growth before COVID-19. Merchants who typically take part in the Singles’ Day shopping festivals say the costs of participation no longer pay off, amid high advertising fees and unsatisfactory sales. Zhao Gao, who owns a garment factory in eastern Zhejiang province, said that after paying advertising costs to e-commerce platforms he would only break even after sales. “The platforms have so many rules for promotions and customers have become more skeptical,” he said. “As a merchant, I no longer participate in the Singles’ Day promotions.” Another merchant, Du Baonian who runs a food company processing mutton in Inner Mongolia, said that overall sales in the past year have fallen 15% as consumers downgraded and reduced consumption. Du said that while he still takes part in the Singles’ Day promotions, the higher expenses do not typically generate returns because of sluggish sales. “We are seeing shrinking revenue, but advertisement on the platform can help us to maintain our leading sales position,” he said, adding that he was considering advertising on more e-commerce platforms to target more consumers. Meanwhile, e-commerce platforms grappling with a slowing domestic market have also turned to overseas markets to seek new growth, offering promotions like global free shipping and allowing merchants to sell globally with ease. Alibaba, for example, said in a blog post on its Alizila site that some 70,000 merchants saw sales double with global free shipping. In markets like Singapore and Hong Kong, new customers also doubled, Alibaba said.

Taipei, Taiwan — Taiwan on Monday said it had closed a probe into pagers that exploded in Lebanon in September and caused a deadly blow to Iran-backed Hezbollah, saying no Taiwanese citizens or companies were involved. Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed responsibility for the attack during a cabinet meeting, telling ministers that senior defense officials and political figures were opposed to the detonation of the pagers but that he went ahead with the operation. Security sources have previously said the pagers carried the name of Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, a company which has asserted that it did not make them. Taiwan's government has also said the pagers were not made in Taiwan. Taipei prosecutors, who were investigating the case, said in a statement the AR-924 pager model that exploded in Lebanon was manufactured, traded, and shipped by a firm called Frontier Group Entity, and made outside of Taiwan. They added, however, that Gold Apollo had authorized the company to use the Apollo trademark. "There is no evidence indicating that any domestic manufacturers or individuals were accomplices in the relevant explosions, violating the Counter-Terrorism Financing Act, or engaging in other illegal activities," the prosecutors said in a statement. "No concrete evidence of criminal activity has been discovered in this case, nor have any specific individuals been implicated in any criminal activity, following a comprehensive investigation." Prosecutors have previously confirmed that they questioned Gold Apollo's president and founder Hsu Ching-kuang and a woman called Teresa Wu, the sole employee of a company called Apollo Systems Ltd. In their statement, the prosecutors said Wu acted as a liaison with Frontier, but there was no evidence she "had prior knowledge or participated in any conspiracy or collaboration related to the explosion incidents." The prosecutors said there was some information they did not know, including the exact identities of the Frontier employees Wu communicated with. It said one person was called "T" and was presumably the head of Frontier, while another was called "M" and was presumably the sales director. Gold Apollo told Reuters it had also just seen the prosecutor’s statement, and that it was not immediately able to comment further.

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LONDON — Discontented, economically squeezed voters have turned against sitting governments on both right and left during many of the dozens of elections held this year, as global power blocs shift and political certainties crumble. From India to South Africa to Britain, voters dealt blows to long-governing parties. Elections to the European Parliament showed growing support for the continent's far right, while France's centrist president scrambled to fend off a similar surge at home. If there’s a global trend, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer said at a summit in Canada in June, it’s that “people are tired of the incumbents.” More than 40 countries have held elections already this year. More uncertainty awaits — nations home to over half the world’s population are going to the polls in 2024. The world is already anxiously turning to November’s presidential election in the U.S., where an acrimonious campaign was dealt a shocking blow by an assassination attempt against Republican nominee and former president, Donald Trump. Unpopular incumbents Aftershocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts in Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and spiking prices for food and fuel have left dissatisfied voters eager for change. “Voters really, really don’t like inflation,” said Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “And they punish governments that deliver it, whether they are at fault or not.” Inflation and unemployment are rising in India, the world’s largest democracy, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority after a decade of dominance. Modi was forced to rely on coalition partners to govern as the opposition doubled its strength in parliament. In South Africa, sky-high rates of unemployment and inequality helped drive a dramatic loss of support for the African National Congress, which had governed ever since the end of the apartheid system of white minority rule in 1994. The party once led by Nelson Mandela lost its parliamentary majority for the first time and was forced to enter a coalition with opposition parties. In Britain, the center-left Labour Party won election in a landslide, ousting the Conservatives after 14 years. As in so many countries, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a jaded electorate that wants lower prices and better public services — but is deeply skeptical of politicians’ ability to deliver change. US-China tensions Caught between world powers China and the United States, Taiwan held one of the year's most significant elections. Lai Ching-te, of the Democratic Progressive Party, won a presidential election that was seen as a referendum on the island’s relationship with China, which claims Taiwan as its own. Beijing regards Lai as a separatist and ramped up military pressure with drills in the Taiwan Strait. Lai has promised to strengthen the defenses of the self-governing island, and the U.S. has pledged to help it defend itself, heightening tensions in one of the world’s flashpoints. In Bangladesh, an important partner of the U.S. that has drawn closer to China, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won a fourth successive term in an election that opposition parties boycotted. The U.S. and U.K. said the vote was not credible, free or fair. Political dynasties In several countries, family ties helped secure or cement power. Pakistan held messy parliamentary elections – under the eye of the country’s powerful military — that saw well-established political figures vie to become prime minister. The winner, atop a coalition government, was Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, younger brother of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif. Opponents say the election was rigged in his favor, with opponent and former prime minister, Imran Khan, imprisoned and blocked from running. The situation remains unstable, with Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruling that Khan’s party was improperly denied some seats. In Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest democracy, former Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto was officially declared president more than two months after an election in which he won over 58% of the vote. His two losing rivals alleged fraud and nepotism — Subianto’s vice president-elect is outgoing leader Joko Widodo’s son, and Subianto was the son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator, Suharto. The country’s highest court rejected their arguments. Some outcomes were predictable. Russian President Vladimir Putin was reelected to a fifth term in a preordained election that followed his relentless crackdown on dissent. Rwanda's election extended the 30-year rule of President Paul Kagame, an authoritarian leader who ran almost unopposed. Far right's uneven march The far right has gained ground in Europe as the continent experiences economic instability and an influx of migrants from troubled lands. Elections for the parliament of the 27-nation European Union shifted the bloc’s center of gravity, with the far right rocking ruling parties in France and Germany, the EU’s traditional driving forces. The EU election triggered a political earthquake in France. After his centrist, pro-business party took a pasting, President Emmanuel Macron called a risky snap parliamentary election in hope of stemming a far-right surge. The anti-immigration National Rally party won the first round, but alliances and tactical voting by the center and left knocked it down to third place in the second round and left a divided legislature. New faces, daunting challenges A presidential election tested Senegal's reputation as a stable democracy in West Africa, a region rocked by a recent spate of coups. The surprise winner was little-known opposition figure Basirou Diomaye Faye, released from prison before polling day as part of a political amnesty. Faye is Africa’s youngest elected leader, and his rise reflects widespread frustration among Senegal’s youth with the country’s direction. Senegal has made new oil and gas discoveries in recent years, but the population has yet to see any real benefit. Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum as the first female president in the country’s 200-year history. A protege of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the 61-year-old former Mexico City mayor vowed to continue in the direction set by the popular leftist leader. She faces a polarized electorate, daunting drug-related violence, an increasingly influential military and tensions over migration with the U.S. Uncertainty is the new normal On July 28, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will seek to extend a decade-plus presidency marked by a complex political, social and economic crisis that has driven millions into poverty or out of the country. Opposition parties have banded together, but the ruling party has tight control over the voting process, and many doubt votes will be counted fairly. South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is scheduled to hold its long-delayed first elections in December. That would represent a key milestone, but the vote is rife with danger and vulnerable to failure. 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Mariana Budjeryn writes: War never stops at the border, especially on a continent like Europe. The European Union absorbed millions of Ukrainian war refugees and poured billions of euros into Ukraine's defenses and economic survival. The war permanently reshaped Europe: its demographics, political economy, and energy architecture are shifting in ways that will have irreversible long-term consequences. All of this is because in a very real sense Ukraine already is inextricably woven into the fabric of Europe: Ukraine’s pain is Europe’s pain and Ukraine’s gain will inevitably be Europe's gain, too.