A trip to Japan involves the creation of Mosaics.

Fr. Ted reminds us that all of the things that make up the Christian life are essential to creating a full icon of Christ.

Fr. Ted reminds us that only in Orthodox Christianity do we have the totality of Holy Tradition.

SAIC MOTOR MALAYSIA recently celebrated a major milestone for the MG5 sedan at the MG5 Car Delivery Event at MG Motor Glenmarie (Mega Galeri Sdn Bhd), where over 20 new owners gathered to receive their cars. The event, attended by SAIC Motor Malaysia’s management, fostered a strong community atmosphere, uniting MG fans and showcasing the brand’s commitment to its customers.

The success of the MG5 is largely due to efficient coordination among 18 strategically placed MG Motor Authorized Dealerships, allowing prompt vehicle deliveries across Malaysia. This dealer network is key to SAIC Motor Malaysia’s mission to meet the demands of Malaysia’s style-conscious market.

Lee Wen Hsiang, Chief Operating Officer of SAIC Motor Malaysia, noted, “The MG5 has truly resonated with a segment of buyers who prioritise style and individuality. We’re thrilled to celebrate this milestone alongside our customers.” He highlighted that these events strengthen connections with customers, offering valuable feedback that helps improve service and build a vibrant MG community.

The MG5 stands out as the largest sedan in its class, with a sporty design, spacious interior, and impressive warranties. Owners enjoy a 5-year Unlimited Mileage Warranty and a best-in-segment 7-year Unlimited Mileage Powertrain Warranty. Celebrating MG’s 100th anniversary, SAIC is also offering an RM7,000 introductory rebate, bringing the price to RM86,900, making it an attractive option for new buyers.

Mosaic Flavors was formed by merging like-minded flavor houses, OC Flavors and Novotaste, into a unified brand. It has become the flavor partner of choice for many iconic brands, leading retailers, and emerging disruptors in the food and beverage industry.

Children's Geographies; 12/27/2023
(AN 174488028); ISSN: 14733285
Academic Search Premier

Fabien Cappello collaborates with overlooked industry artisans to create unexpected objects that reshape how we view design in a colorful exhibition.

Walker talks about campaigns for Discover Puerto Rico and other organizations, as well as her multifaceted agency role.

Mosaic Becomes an Official Sage Partner, Offering Customizable Paperless Workflow Solutions

Mosaicist Inc. Elevates Fashion to the Moon: Sponsoring LCamero's Historic 'The Blue Dress' Art Installation for Lunaprise Launch Gala

With more than $7 billion in annual revenue and 24,000 employees, SAIC provides engineering, digital, AI, and mission support to defense, space, intelligence, and civilian customers. CEO Toni Townes-Whitley took the helm a year ago, after stints as a senior executive at Microsoft, CGI Federal, and Unisys. She discusses her approach to strategic transformation at SAIC through fine tuning and employee upskilling, rather than wholesale change. She also shares how the company is incorporating cutting edge technologies, like generative AI, with appropriate safeguards for government clients.

Vatn Systems, a startup developing autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for U.S. and allied military customers, on Tuesday said it has raised $13 million in seed funding to further expand its […]

The initiative is part of Mondelēz International’s efforts to pack ‘light and right’ in service of its global sustainable packaging goals. Saica’s flexible packaging business unit also has set ambitious circularity targets.

From Kosovo with love, mosaic artist honours Trump and Harris

Melodic, blackened death metal perfection.

Mosaic has added 13 leading US environmental risk specialists to its team as the company drives a strategic buildout of business across the Americas A spokesperson said, “The expansion marks the next stage of rapid growth for Mosaic’s Environmental Liability division which the company launched as its seventh line of business less than two years […]

Mosaic Insurance has “launched customized global terrorism and sabotage coverage for fine art and specie insureds, with syndicated capacity extending up to $215 million per risk.” A spokesperson said, “The new product offers coverage for physical loss or damage caused by acts of terrorism and sabotage, protecting artwork and other high-value contents housed in museums, […]

Mosaic Insurance appointed Francesca Harland as Global Head of Professional Liability, succeeding Anna Jay to boost the agency business and recognizing Harland’s contributions since the unit’s launch. A spokesperson said, “Mosaic Insurance has appointed Francesca Harland as its new Global Head of Professional Liability. “Harland, a leading underwriter in the unit since its inception, steps […]

A church plant in Montenegro experiences unexpected diversity and growth resulting from the conflict in Ukraine.

The Penn State School of Music's annual "Mosaic" concert will return to Eisenhower Auditorium on Sunday, Dec. 8 at 4 p.m. 

Inositol 1,4,5-triphosphate receptor type 1 (ITPR1) is an endoplasmic reticulum–bound intracellular inositol triphosphate receptor involved in the regulation of intracellular calcium. Pathogenic variants in ITPR1 are associated with spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) types 15/16 and 29 and have recently been implicated in a facial microsomia syndrome. In this report, we present a family with three affected individuals found to have a heterozygous missense c.800C > T (predicted p.Thr267Met) who present clinically with a SCA29-like syndrome. All three individuals presented with varying degrees of ataxia, developmental delay, and apparent intellectual disability, as well as craniofacial involvement—an uncommon finding in patients with SCA29. The variant was identified using clinical exome sequencing and validated with Sanger sequencing. It is presumed to be inherited via parental germline mosaicism. We present our findings to provide additional evidence for germline mosaic inheritance of SCA29, as well as to expand the clinical phenotype of the syndrome.

So a while back I created a twitter bot @earthin24 that generates a video of earth, as seen from himawari8 satellite, every day. To see the year out I wanted to create a combined video into a mosaic. 🌏 Earth mosaic of all days captured so far for 2017 in 4k pic.twitter.com/VGf5qUct1M — Earth (@earthin24) … Continue reading "An earth mosaic"

The generalized Darwin–Hamilton equations [Wuttke (2014). Acta Cryst. A70, 429–440] describe multiple Bragg reflection from a thick, ideally imperfect crystal. These equations are simplified by making full use of energy conservation, and it is demonstrated that the conventional two-ray Darwin–Hamilton equations are obtained as a first-order approximation. Then an efficient numeric solution method is presented, based on a transfer matrix for discretized directional distribution functions and on spectral collocation in the depth coordinate. Example solutions illustrate the orientational spread of multiply reflected rays and the distortion of rocking curves, especially if the detector only covers a finite solid angle.

To describe multiple Bragg reflection from a thick, ideally imperfect crystal, the transport equations are reformulated in three-dimensional phase space and solved by spectral collocation in the depth coordinate. Example solutions illustrate the orientational spread of multiply reflected rays and the distortion of rocking curves, especially for finite detectors.

TckTckTck's mosaic:EARTH combines 'deep zoom' technology with social action to encourage people around the world to join in the growing sustainability movement.

There is no such thing as a "male brain" or a "female brain," new research finds.

A look into Massachusetts ethnic/race/country of origin by town.

Plugin Boutique has announced an exclusive sale on the Mosaic Voices instrument library by Heavyocity, offering a 50% discount for few days only. The Mosaic Series was conceived to keep composers creative: Each instrument features a unique set of foundational elements, designed to be combined and layered into lush, cinematic textures. Mosaic Voices is a […]

The post Heavyocity Mosaic Voices for Kontakt Player on sale for $59 USD appeared first on rekkerd.org.

"A lot of young girls are often taught to sort of stay quiet or to put other people's needs before ourselves... And if we are to speak up or to stand up for ourselves it could be taken as being bossy or the other b word." - Emily Abad, Director of Programs at The Mosaic Project, an experiential education program addressing issues of diversity, empathy, and conflict resolution. On this episode of “Inflection Point” host Lauren Schiller talks with Emily Abad about how to find that mix of empathy and assertiveness for all genders.

A game that punctures a hole in the noxious ideology that work gives meaning to our lives.

McCune-Albright syndrome (MAS) is a mosaic disorder arising from gain-of-function mutations in the GNAS gene, which encodes the 3', 5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) pathway-associated G-protein, Gsα. Clinical manifestations of MAS in a given individual, including fibrous dysplasia, are determined by the timing and location of the GNAS mutation during embryogenesis, the tissues involved, and the role of Gsα in the affected tissues. The Gsα mutation results in dysregulation of the cAMP signaling cascade, leading to upregulation of phosphodiesterase type 4 (PDE4), which catalyzes the hydrolysis of cAMP. Increased cAMP levels have been found in vitro in both animal models of fibrous dysplasia and in cultured cells from individuals with MAS, but not in humans with fibrous dysplasia. Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of PDE4 with ¹¹C-(R)-rolipram has been used successfully to study the in vivo activity of the cAMP cascade. To date, it remains unknown whether fibrous dysplasia and other symptoms of MAS, including neuropsychiatric impairments, are associated with increased PDE4 activity in humans. Methods: ¹¹C-(R)-rolipram whole-body and brain PET scans were performed in six individuals with MAS (three for brain scans and six for whole-body scans) and nine healthy controls (seven for brain scans and six for whole-body scans). Results: ¹¹C-(R)-rolipram binding correlated with known locations of fibrous dysplasia in the periphery of individuals with MAS; no uptake was observed in the bones of healthy controls. In peripheral organs and the brain, no difference in ¹¹C-(R)-rolipram uptake was noted between participants with MAS and healthy controls. Conclusion: This study is the first to find evidence for increased cAMP activity in areas of fibrous dysplasia in vivo. No differences in brain uptake between MAS participants and controls were detected, which could be due to several reasons, including the limited anatomic resolution of PET. Nevertheless, the results confirm the usefulness of PET scans with ¹¹C-(R)-rolipram to indirectly measure increased cAMP pathway activation in human disease.

Peter M. Zygmunt
Jun 1, 2002; 22:4720-4727
Behavioral

A church plant in Montenegro experiences unexpected diversity and growth resulting from the conflict in Ukraine.

Two firms advancing renewable energy applications are in the spotlight this week at the CES consumer tech show in Las Vegas, one of the tech world's biggest venues, receiving grants from U.S. telecommunications company Verizon to further bring their ideas and strategies to the masses.

A grandiose mosaic depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking officials will not be put on display in a new military church after objections from the Kremlin leader, a church official said on Friday.

ABSTRACT

The nonsense-mediated decay (NMD) pathway presents a challenge for RNA viruses with termination codons that precede extended 3' untranslated regions (UTRs). The umbravirus Pea enation mosaic virus 2 (PEMV2) is a nonsegmented, positive-sense RNA virus with an unusually long 3' UTR that is susceptible to NMD. To establish a systemic infection, the PEMV2 long-distance movement protein p26 was previously shown to both stabilize viral RNAs and bind them for transport through the plant’s vascular system. The current study demonstrated that p26 protects both viral and nonviral messenger RNAs from NMD. Although p26 localizes to both the cytoplasm and nucleolus, p26 exerts its anti-NMD effects exclusively in the cytoplasm independently of long-distance movement. Using a transcriptome-wide approach in the model plant Nicotiana benthamiana, p26 protected a subset of cellular NMD target transcripts, particularly those containing long, structured, GC-rich 3' UTRs. Furthermore, transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) revealed that the NMD pathway is highly dysfunctional during PEMV2 infection, with 1,820 (48%) of NMD targets increasing in abundance. Widespread changes in the host transcriptome are common during plant RNA virus infections, and these results suggest that, in at least some instances, virus-mediated NMD inhibition may be a major contributing factor.

IMPORTANCE Nonsense-mediated decay (NMD) represents an RNA regulatory pathway that degrades both natural and faulty messenger RNAs with long 3' untranslated regions. NMD targets diverse families of RNA viruses, requiring that viruses counteract the NMD pathway for successful amplification in host cells. A protein required for long-distance movement of Pea enation mosaic virus 2 (PEMV2) is shown to also protect both viral and host mRNAs from NMD. RNA-seq analyses of the Nicotiana benthamiana transcriptome revealed that PEMV2 infection significantly impairs the host NMD pathway. RNA viruses routinely induce large-scale changes in host gene expression, and, like PEMV2, may use NMD inhibition to alter the host transcriptome in an effort to increase virus amplification.

On a ship frozen in the Arctic, scientists have spent all winter to shed light on exactly how the world is changing

Researchers have used a microbiome 'fingerprint' method to report that an individualized mosaic of microbial strains is transmitted to the infant gut microbiome from a mother giving birth through vaginal delivery. They detailed this transmission by analyzing existing metagenomic databases of fecal samples from mother-infant pairs, as well as analyzing mouse dam and pup transmission in a germ-free, or gnotobiotic, mouse model, where the dams were inoculated with human fecal microbes.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line.Castleski / Shutterstock

On January 5, six days after China officially announced a spate of unusual pneumonia cases, a team of researchers at Shanghai’s Fudan University deposited the full genome sequence of the causal virus, SARS-CoV-2, into Genbank. A little more than three months later, 4,528 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced,1 and more than 883 COVID-related clinical trials2 for treatments and vaccines have been established. The speed with which these trials will deliver results is unknown—the delicate bаlance of efficacy and safety can only be pushed so far before the risks outweigh the benefits. For this reason, a long-term solution like vaccination may take years to come to market.3

The good news is that a lack of treatment doesn’t preclude an end to the ordeal. Viral outbreaks of Ebola and SARS, neither of which had readily available vaccines, petered out through the application of consistent public health strategies—testing, containment, and long-term behavioral adaptations. Today countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have shown exemplary recovery rates from COVID. Tomorrow, countries with high fatality rates like Sweden, Belgium, and the United Kingdom will have the opportunity to demonstrate what they’ve learned when the next outbreak comes to their shores. And so will we.

The first Ebola case was identified in 1976,4 when a patient with hemorrhagic symptoms arrived at the Yambuku Mission Hospital, located in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Patient samples were collected and sent to several European laboratories that specialized in rare viruses. Scientists, without sequencing technology, took about five weeks to identify the agent responsible for the illness as a new member of the highly pathogenic Filoviridae family.

The first Ebola outbreak sickened 686 individuals across the DRC and neighboring Sudan. 453 of the patients died, with a final case fatality rate (CFR)—the number of dead out of number of sickened—of 66 percent. Despite the lethality of the virus, sociocultural interventions, including lockdowns, contact-tracing, campaigns to change funeral rites, and restrictions on consumption of game meat all proved effective interventions in the long run.

That is, until 2014, when there was an exception to the pattern. Ebola appeared in Guinea, a small country in West Africa, whose population had never before been exposed to the virus. The closest epidemic had been in Gabon, 13 years before and 2,500 miles away. Over the course of two years, the infection spread from Guinea into Liberia and Sierra Leone, sickening more than 24,000 people and killing more than 10,000.

Countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan and Hong Kong, have shown exemplary recovery rates.

During the initial phase of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, rural communities were reluctant to cooperate with government directives for how to care for the sick and the dead. To help incentivize behavioral changes, sociocultural anthropologists like Mariane Ferme of the University of California, Berkeley, were brought in to advise the government. In a recent interview with Nautilus, Ferme indicated that strategies that allowed rural communities to remain involved with their loved ones increased cooperation. Villages located far from the capital, she said, were encouraged to “deputize someone to come to the hospital, to come to the burial, so they could come back to the community and tell the story of the body.” For communities that couldn’t afford to send someone to the capital, she saw public health officials adopt a savvy technological solution—tablets to record video messages that were carried between convalescent patients and their families.

However, there were also systemic failures that, in Ferme’s opinion, contributed to the severity of the 2014 West African epidemic. In Sierra Leone, she said, “the big mistake early on was to distribute [weakly causal] information about zoonotic transmission, even when it was obviously community transmission.” In other words, although there had been an instance of zoonotic transmission—the virus jumping from a bat to a human—that initiated the epidemic, the principle danger was other contagious individuals, not game meat. Eventually, under pressure from relief groups, the government changed its messaging to reflect scientific consensus.

But the retraction shook public faith in the government and bred resentment. The mismatch between messaging and reality mirrors the current pandemic. Since the COVID outbreak began, international and government health officials have issued mixed messages. Doubts initially surfaced about the certainty of the virus being capable of spreading from person to person, and the debate over the effectiveness of masks in preventing infection continues.

Despite the confused messaging, there has been general compliance with stay-at-home orders that has helped flatten the curve. Had the public been less trusting of government directives, the outcome could have been disastrous, as it was in Libera in 2014. After a two-week lockdown was announced, the Liberian army conducted house-to-house sweeps to check for the sick and collect the dead. “It was a draconian method that made people hide the sick and dead in their houses,” Ferme said. People feared their loved ones would be buried without the proper rites. A direct consequence was a staggering number of active cases, and an unknown extent of community transmission. But in the end, the benchmark for the end of Ebola and SARS was the same. The WHO declared victory when the rate of new cases slowed, then stopped. By the same measure, when an entire 14-day quarantine period passes with no new cases of COVID-19, it can be declared over.

It remains possible that even if we manage to end the epidemic, it will return again. Driven by novel zoonotic transmissions, Ebola has flared up every few years. Given the extent of COVID-19’s spread, and the potential for the kind of mutations that allow for re-infection, it may simply become endemic.

Two factors will play into the final outcome of COVID-19 are pathogenicity and virulence. Pathogenicity is the ability of an infectious agent to cause disease in the host, and is measured by R0—the number of new infections each patient can generate. Virulence, on the other hand, is the amount of harm the infectious agent can cause, and is best measured by CFR. While the pathogenicity of Ebola, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2 is on the same order—somewhere between 1 to 3 new infections for each patient, virulence differs greatly between the two SARS viruses and Ebola.

The case fatality rate for an Ebola infection is between 60 to 90 percent. The spread in CFR is due to differences in infection dynamics between strains. The underlying cause of the divergent virulence of Ebola and SARS is largely due to the tropism of the virus, meaning the cells that it attacks. The mechanism by which the Ebola virus gains entry into cells is not fully understood, but it has been shown the virus preferentially targets immune and epithelial cells.5 In other words, the virus first destroys the body’s ability to mount a defense, and then destroys the delicate tissues that line the vascular system. Patients bleed freely and most often succumb to low blood pressure that results from severe fluid loss. However, neither SARS nor SARS-CoV-2 attack the immune system directly. Instead, they enter lung epithelial cells through the ACE2 receptor, which ensures a lower CFR. What is interesting about these coronaviruses is that despite their similar modes of infection, they demonstrate a range of virulence: SARS had a final CFR of 10 percent, while SARS-CoV-2 has a pending CFR of 1.4 percent. Differences in virulence between the 2002 and 2019 SARS outbreaks could be attributed to varying levels of care between countries.

The chart above displays WHO data of the relationship between the total number of cases in a country and the CFR during the 2002-2003 SARS-CoV epidemic. South Africa, on the far right, had only a single case. The patient died, which resulted in a 100 percent CFR. China, on the other hand, had 5,327 cases and 349 deaths, giving a 7 percent CFR. The chart below zooms to the bottom left corner of the graph, so as to better resolve critically affected countries, those with a caseload of less than 1,000, but with a high CFR.

Here is Hong Kong, with 1,755 cases and a 17 percent CFR. There is also Taiwan, with 346 cases and an 11 percent CFR. Finally, nearly tied with Canada is Singapore with 238 cases and a 14 percent CFR.

With COVID-19, it’s apparent that outcome reflects experience. China has 82,747 cases of COVID, but has lowered their CFR to 4 percent. Hong Kong has 1,026 cases and a 0.4 percent CFR. Taiwan has 422 cases at 1.5 percent CFR, and Singapore with 8,014 cases, has a 0.13 percent CFR.

It was the novel coronavirus identification program established in China in the wake of the 2002 SARS epidemic that alerted authorities to SARS-CoV-2 back in November of 2019. The successful responses by Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore can also be attributed to a residual familiarity with the dangers of an unknown virus, and the sorts of interventions that are necessary to prevent a crisis from spiraling out of control.

In West Africa, too, they seem to have learned the value of being prepared. When Ferme returned to Liberia on March 7, she encountered airport staff fully protected with gowns, head covers, face screens, masks, and gloves. By the time she left the country, 10 days later, she said, “Airline personnel were setting up social distancing lines, and [rural vendors] hawking face masks. Motorcycle taxis drivers, the people most at risk after healthcare workers—all had goggles and face masks.”

The sheer number of COVID-19 cases indicates the road to recovery will take some time. Each must be identified, quarantined, and all contacts traced and tested. Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars. Northwestern University economists Martin Eichenbaum et al. modeled6 the cost of a yearlong shutdown to be $4.2 trillion, a cost that proactive countries will not face. A recent Harvard study7 published in Science suggests the virus will likely make seasonal appearances going forward, potentially requiring new waves of social distancing. In other words, initial hesitancy will have repercussions for years. In the future, smart containment principles,6 where restrictions are applied on the basis of health status, may temper the impact of these measures.

Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars.

Inaction was initially framed as promoting herd immunity, where spread of the virus is interrupted once everyone has fallen sick with it. This is because getting the virus results in the same antibody production process as getting vaccinated—but doesn’t require the development of a vaccine. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that 70 percent of the population will need to be infected with or vaccinated against the virus8 for herd immunity to work. Progress toward it has been slow, and can only be achieved through direct infection with the virus, meaning many will die. A Stanford University study in Santa Clara County9 suggests only 2.5 percent to 4.2 percent of the population have had the virus. Another COVID hotspot in Gangelt, Germany, suggests 15 percent10—higher, but still nowhere near the 70 percent necessary for herd immunity. Given the dangers inherent in waiting on herd immunity, our best hope is a vaccine.

A key concern for effective vaccine development is viral mutation. This is because vaccines train the immune system to recognize specific shapes on the surface of the virus—a composite structure called the antigen. Mutations threaten vaccine development because they can change the shape of the relevant antigen, effectively allowing the pathogen to evade immune surveillance. But, so far, SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating slowly, with only one mutation found in the section most accessible to the immune system, the spike protein. What this suggests is that the viral genome may be sufficiently stable for vaccine development.

What we know, though, is that Ebola was extinguished due to cooperation between public health officials and community leaders. SARS-CoV ended when all cases were identified and quarantined. The Spanish Flu in 1918 vanished after two long, deadly seasons.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line. With 26 million unemployed and protests erupting around the country, it seems there are many who would prefer to risk life and limb rather than face financial insolvency. Applying smart containment principles in the aftermath of the shutdown might be the best way to get the economy moving again, while maintaining the safety of those at greatest risk. Going forward, vigilance and preparedness will be the watchwords of the day, and the most efficient way to prevent social and economic ruin.

Anastasia Bendebury and Michael Shilo DeLay did their PhDs at Columbia University. Together they created Demystifying Science, a science literacy organization devoted to providing clear, mechanistic explanations for natural phenomena. Find them on Twitter @DemystifySci.

References

1. Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling. Nextstrain www.nextstrain.org.

2. Covid-19 TrialsTracker. TrialsTracker www.trialstracker.net.

3. Struck, M. Vaccine R&D success rates and development times. Nature Biotechnology 14, 591-593 (1996).

4. Breman, J. & Johnson, K. Ebola then and now. The New England Journal of Medicine 371 1663-1666 (2014).

5. Baseler, L., Chertow, D.S., Johnson, K.M., Feldmann, H., & Morens, D.M. THe pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease. The Annual Review of Pathology 12, 387-418 (2017).

6. Eichenbaum, M., Rebell, S., & Trabandt, M. The macroeconomics of epidemics. The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: 26882 (2020).

7. Kissler, S., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y., & Lipsitch, M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science eabb5793 (2020).

8. D’ Souza, G. & Dowdy, D. What is herd immunity and how can we achieve it with COVID-19? Johns Hopkins COVID-19 School of Public Health Insights www.jhsph.edu (2020).

9. Digitale, E. Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus developed at Stanford Medicine. Stanford Medicine News Center Med.Stanford.edu (2020).

10. Winkler, M. Blood tests show 14%of people are now immune to COVID-19 in one town in Germany. MIT Technology Review (2020).

On January 5, six days after China officially announced a spate of unusual pneumonia cases, a team of researchers at Shanghai’s Fudan University deposited the full genome sequence of the causal virus, SARS-CoV-2, into Genbank. A little more than three months later, 4,528 genomes of SARS-CoV-2 have been sequenced,1 and more than 883 COVID-related clinical trials2 for treatments and vaccines have been established. The speed with which these trials will deliver results is unknown—the delicate bаlance of efficacy and safety can only be pushed so far before the risks outweigh the benefits. For this reason, a long-term solution like vaccination may take years to come to market.3

The good news is that a lack of treatment doesn’t preclude an end to the ordeal. Viral outbreaks of Ebola and SARS, neither of which had readily available vaccines, petered out through the application of consistent public health strategies—testing, containment, and long-term behavioral adaptations. Today countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have shown exemplary recovery rates from COVID. Tomorrow, countries with high fatality rates like Sweden, Belgium, and the United Kingdom will have the opportunity to demonstrate what they’ve learned when the next outbreak comes to their shores. And so will we.

The first Ebola case was identified in 1976,4 when a patient with hemorrhagic symptoms arrived at the Yambuku Mission Hospital, located in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Patient samples were collected and sent to several European laboratories that specialized in rare viruses. Scientists, without sequencing technology, took about five weeks to identify the agent responsible for the illness as a new member of the highly pathogenic Filoviridae family.

The first Ebola outbreak sickened 686 individuals across the DRC and neighboring Sudan. 453 of the patients died, with a final case fatality rate (CFR)—the number of dead out of number of sickened—of 66 percent. Despite the lethality of the virus, sociocultural interventions, including lockdowns, contact-tracing, campaigns to change funeral rites, and restrictions on consumption of game meat all proved effective interventions in the long run.

That is, until 2014, when there was an exception to the pattern. Ebola appeared in Guinea, a small country in West Africa, whose population had never before been exposed to the virus. The closest epidemic had been in Gabon, 13 years before and 2,500 miles away. Over the course of two years, the infection spread from Guinea into Liberia and Sierra Leone, sickening more than 24,000 people and killing more than 10,000.

Countries that have previously battled the 2002 SARS epidemic, like Taiwan and Hong Kong, have shown exemplary recovery rates.

During the initial phase of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, rural communities were reluctant to cooperate with government directives for how to care for the sick and the dead. To help incentivize behavioral changes, sociocultural anthropologists like Mariane Ferme of the University of California, Berkeley, were brought in to advise the government. In a recent interview with Nautilus, Ferme indicated that strategies that allowed rural communities to remain involved with their loved ones increased cooperation. Villages located far from the capital, she said, were encouraged to “deputize someone to come to the hospital, to come to the burial, so they could come back to the community and tell the story of the body.” For communities that couldn’t afford to send someone to the capital, she saw public health officials adopt a savvy technological solution—tablets to record video messages that were carried between convalescent patients and their families.

However, there were also systemic failures that, in Ferme’s opinion, contributed to the severity of the 2014 West African epidemic. In Sierra Leone, she said, “the big mistake early on was to distribute [weakly causal] information about zoonotic transmission, even when it was obviously community transmission.” In other words, although there had been an instance of zoonotic transmission—the virus jumping from a bat to a human—that initiated the epidemic, the principle danger was other contagious individuals, not game meat. Eventually, under pressure from relief groups, the government changed its messaging to reflect scientific consensus.

But the retraction shook public faith in the government and bred resentment. The mismatch between messaging and reality mirrors the current pandemic. Since the COVID outbreak began, international and government health officials have issued mixed messages. Doubts initially surfaced about the certainty of the virus being capable of spreading from person to person, and the debate over the effectiveness of masks in preventing infection continues.

Despite the confused messaging, there has been general compliance with stay-at-home orders that has helped flatten the curve. Had the public been less trusting of government directives, the outcome could have been disastrous, as it was in Libera in 2014. After a two-week lockdown was announced, the Liberian army conducted house-to-house sweeps to check for the sick and collect the dead. “It was a draconian method that made people hide the sick and dead in their houses,” Ferme said. People feared their loved ones would be buried without the proper rites. A direct consequence was a staggering number of active cases, and an unknown extent of community transmission. But in the end, the benchmark for the end of Ebola and SARS was the same. The WHO declared victory when the rate of new cases slowed, then stopped. By the same measure, when an entire 14-day quarantine period passes with no new cases of COVID-19, it can be declared over.

It remains possible that even if we manage to end the epidemic, it will return again. Driven by novel zoonotic transmissions, Ebola has flared up every few years. Given the extent of COVID-19’s spread, and the potential for the kind of mutations that allow for re-infection, it may simply become endemic.

Two factors will play into the final outcome of COVID-19 are pathogenicity and virulence. Pathogenicity is the ability of an infectious agent to cause disease in the host, and is measured by R0—the number of new infections each patient can generate. Virulence, on the other hand, is the amount of harm the infectious agent can cause, and is best measured by CFR. While the pathogenicity of Ebola, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2 is on the same order—somewhere between 1 to 3 new infections for each patient, virulence differs greatly between the two SARS viruses and Ebola.

The case fatality rate for an Ebola infection is between 60 to 90 percent. The spread in CFR is due to differences in infection dynamics between strains. The underlying cause of the divergent virulence of Ebola and SARS is largely due to the tropism of the virus, meaning the cells that it attacks. The mechanism by which the Ebola virus gains entry into cells is not fully understood, but it has been shown the virus preferentially targets immune and epithelial cells.5 In other words, the virus first destroys the body’s ability to mount a defense, and then destroys the delicate tissues that line the vascular system. Patients bleed freely and most often succumb to low blood pressure that results from severe fluid loss. However, neither SARS nor SARS-CoV-2 attack the immune system directly. Instead, they enter lung epithelial cells through the ACE2 receptor, which ensures a lower CFR. What is interesting about these coronaviruses is that despite their similar modes of infection, they demonstrate a range of virulence: SARS had a final CFR of 10 percent, while SARS-CoV-2 has a pending CFR of 1.4 percent. Differences in virulence between the 2002 and 2019 SARS outbreaks could be attributed to varying levels of care between countries.

The chart above displays WHO data of the relationship between the total number of cases in a country and the CFR during the 2002-2003 SARS-CoV epidemic. South Africa, on the far right, had only a single case. The patient died, which resulted in a 100 percent CFR. China, on the other hand, had 5,327 cases and 349 deaths, giving a 7 percent CFR. The chart below zooms to the bottom left corner of the graph, so as to better resolve critically affected countries, those with a caseload of less than 1,000, but with a high CFR.

Here is Hong Kong, with 1,755 cases and a 17 percent CFR. There is also Taiwan, with 346 cases and an 11 percent CFR. Finally, nearly tied with Canada is Singapore with 238 cases and a 14 percent CFR.

With COVID-19, it’s apparent that outcome reflects experience. China has 82,747 cases of COVID, but has lowered their CFR to 4 percent. Hong Kong has 1,026 cases and a 0.4 percent CFR. Taiwan has 422 cases at 1.5 percent CFR, and Singapore with 8,014 cases, has a 0.13 percent CFR.

It was the novel coronavirus identification program established in China in the wake of the 2002 SARS epidemic that alerted authorities to SARS-CoV-2 back in November of 2019. The successful responses by Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore can also be attributed to a residual familiarity with the dangers of an unknown virus, and the sorts of interventions that are necessary to prevent a crisis from spiraling out of control.

In West Africa, too, they seem to have learned the value of being prepared. When Ferme returned to Liberia on March 7, she encountered airport staff fully protected with gowns, head covers, face screens, masks, and gloves. By the time she left the country, 10 days later, she said, “Airline personnel were setting up social distancing lines, and [rural vendors] hawking face masks. Motorcycle taxis drivers, the people most at risk after healthcare workers—all had goggles and face masks.”

The sheer number of COVID-19 cases indicates the road to recovery will take some time. Each must be identified, quarantined, and all contacts traced and tested. Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars. Northwestern University economists Martin Eichenbaum et al. modeled6 the cost of a yearlong shutdown to be $4.2 trillion, a cost that proactive countries will not face. A recent Harvard study7 published in Science suggests the virus will likely make seasonal appearances going forward, potentially requiring new waves of social distancing. In other words, initial hesitancy will have repercussions for years. In the future, smart containment principles,6 where restrictions are applied on the basis of health status, may temper the impact of these measures.

Countries that failed to act swiftly, which allowed their case numbers to spiral out of control, will pay in lives and dollars.

Inaction was initially framed as promoting herd immunity, where spread of the virus is interrupted once everyone has fallen sick with it. This is because getting the virus results in the same antibody production process as getting vaccinated—but doesn’t require the development of a vaccine. The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that 70 percent of the population will need to be infected with or vaccinated against the virus8 for herd immunity to work. Progress toward it has been slow, and can only be achieved through direct infection with the virus, meaning many will die. A Stanford University study in Santa Clara County9 suggests only 2.5 percent to 4.2 percent of the population have had the virus. Another COVID hotspot in Gangelt, Germany, suggests 15 percent10—higher, but still nowhere near the 70 percent necessary for herd immunity. Given the dangers inherent in waiting on herd immunity, our best hope is a vaccine.

A key concern for effective vaccine development is viral mutation. This is because vaccines train the immune system to recognize specific shapes on the surface of the virus—a composite structure called the antigen. Mutations threaten vaccine development because they can change the shape of the relevant antigen, effectively allowing the pathogen to evade immune surveillance. But, so far, SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating slowly, with only one mutation found in the section most accessible to the immune system, the spike protein. What this suggests is that the viral genome may be sufficiently stable for vaccine development.

What we know, though, is that Ebola was extinguished due to cooperation between public health officials and community leaders. SARS-CoV ended when all cases were identified and quarantined. The Spanish Flu in 1918 vanished after two long, deadly seasons.

The final outcome of COVID-19 is still unclear. It will ultimately be decided by our patience and the financial bottom line. With 26 million unemployed and protests erupting around the country, it seems there are many who would prefer to risk life and limb rather than face financial insolvency. Applying smart containment principles in the aftermath of the shutdown might be the best way to get the economy moving again, while maintaining the safety of those at greatest risk. Going forward, vigilance and preparedness will be the watchwords of the day, and the most efficient way to prevent social and economic ruin.

Anastasia Bendebury and Michael Shilo DeLay did their PhDs at Columbia University. Together they created Demystifying Science, a science literacy organization devoted to providing clear, mechanistic explanations for natural phenomena. Find them on Twitter @DemystifySci.

References

1. Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling. Nextstrain www.nextstrain.org.

2. Covid-19 TrialsTracker. TrialsTracker www.trialstracker.net.

3. Struck, M. Vaccine R&D success rates and development times. Nature Biotechnology 14, 591-593 (1996).

4. Breman, J. & Johnson, K. Ebola then and now. The New England Journal of Medicine 371 1663-1666 (2014).

5. Baseler, L., Chertow, D.S., Johnson, K.M., Feldmann, H., & Morens, D.M. THe pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease. The Annual Review of Pathology 12, 387-418 (2017).

6. Eichenbaum, M., Rebell, S., & Trabandt, M. The macroeconomics of epidemics. The National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper: 26882 (2020).

7. Kissler, S., Tedijanto, C., Goldstein, E., Grad, Y., & Lipsitch, M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science eabb5793 (2020).

8. D’ Souza, G. & Dowdy, D. What is herd immunity and how can we achieve it with COVID-19? Johns Hopkins COVID-19 School of Public Health Insights www.jhsph.edu (2020).

9. Digitale, E. Test for antibodies against novel coronavirus developed at Stanford Medicine. Stanford Medicine News Center Med.Stanford.edu (2020).

10. Winkler, M. Blood tests show 14%of people are now immune to COVID-19 in one town in Germany. MIT Technology Review (2020).

Lead image: Castleski / Shutterstock

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