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The impact of the partial federal government shutdown on Los Angeles

Business Update with Mark Lacter

The partial federal government shutdown is one week old, but economists are still saying that its impact in Southern California and elsewhere will be limited.

Susanne Whatley: Business analyst Mark Lacter, why is that?

Mark Lacter: If you look back on the history of these things, Susanne, you see that the disputes are resolved before too much damage gets done.  As for Southern California, I notice that KPCC's Alice Walton was asking around over the weekend about the shutdown, and most folks gave it a shrug.  The regional economy is just too diversified - and not especially tied to federal employment.  You have about 46,000 federal workers employed in L.A. County in one capacity or another - that's out of a workforce of nearly 5 million.  And, now it appears as if the federal employees who have been furloughed are going to receive their back wages whenever the shutdown finally ends.

Whatley: That still might make things dicey when it comes time to pay the monthly mortgage...

Lacter: ...but at least money will be available before most folks run into serious liquidity issues.  That's what the shutdown really comes down to - inconvenience rather than dislocation.  And, you see this with the various government services affected: the E-Verify website is down - that lets business owners know whether the people they're wanting to hire can work legally in the U.S., which obviously is important.  The Small Business Administration has stopped processing loan applications, and the Federal Housing Administration is reporting delays in its loan processing, which could mean a home buyer might not complete his or her paperwork all that quickly.

Whatley: But, what if this were to go on for months?

Lacter: Well, then it would create problems, but nobody really thinks that's going to happen.  The real issue, not just nationally and regionally - but globally - is the refusal by Congress to raise the debt ceiling.  The deadline is a week from Thursday, and - of course - there's been all sorts of debate about what this would mean for the economy.

Whatley: All right, so what would this mean for the economy?

Lacter: Well, no one knows exactly.  But, then again, no one knows exactly what would happen if you fell out of a airplane without a parachute.  I just wouldn't want to test it out.  And, of course, let's keep in mind that these are manufactured crises - not reflective of anything that's going on with the real economy.  It's certainly not reflective of anything that's going on in L.A., which saw a big jump in payroll jobs for 2012 - actually it was the sharpest increase since 2005, and nearly double the national rate (that's despite an unemployment rate that remains very high in certain parts of Los Angeles).

Whatley: What about some of the big locally based companies?

Lacter: Well, if your company is publicly traded, there's a good chance your shares took a dip these past few days.  Going back to September 18, the Dow has lost almost 700 points, which - percentage-wise - is not very much, but it is reflective of how uneasy Wall Street has become.  Public companies based in the L.A. area are taking it on the chin - Disney, Amgen, Mattel, DirecTV - their stock prices are all down going back to the middle of September.

Whatley: Even so, hasn't this been a good year for the stock market?

Lacter: It has - those local companies are up anywhere from 13 percent 30 percent year to date, and the Dow is up 14 percent year to date.  Of course, the stock price of a company doesn't always match the amount of money it makes, and this year, even before worries about the debt ceiling, the numbers haven't been as good as they should be at this stage of a recovery.  And, that's why there's particular concern about next week.  You do have to wonder whether a default could have ripple effects involving trade, consumer spending, the dollar - who knows what?  Now, it's still a pretty good bet that saner heads will prevail, although there are no guarantees - and again, if worse came to worse, do you really want to be jumping out of that plane?  Guess we'll find out.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.




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Orderly election day, competitive campaign did not offset impact of late election law changes on Mongolia’s democratic development, international observers say

ULAANBAATAR, 30 June 2016 – Election day was orderly and followed a competitive campaign. This, however, did not offset the impact of late fundamental changes to election laws on Mongolia’s democratic development, the international observers concluded in a preliminary statement released today. While the June 29 parliamentary elections were highly contested and freedoms of assembly and association were respected, restrictive campaign provisions, coupled with the media’s subservience to political interests, limited impartial and comprehensive information available to voters, the statement says.

“We were pleased to see that voting took place in a calm and peaceful manner. This was a genuinely competitive contest, with high turnout and no certainty as to which party would win. We applaud the fact Mongolia is a functioning democracy,” said Laima Liucija Andrikienė, Head of the European Parliament delegation. “There were, however, some elements which cause concern, including significant last-minute changes to the election laws, which, among other things, prevented 150,000 Mongolian citizens living outside the country, including diplomats, from voting.”

The observers said the consolidation of election legislation into a new law adopted on 25 December 2015, following an inclusive process, was a positive development toward establishing a cohesive electoral framework. However, changes in May 2016 – from a mixed electoral system to a solely majoritarian one, establishing 76 single-mandate constituencies and approving their boundaries – were introduced by parliament in a process that lacked transparency, public consultation and adherence to established criteria, the observers said. This resulted in profound population discrepancies among constituencies.

A total of 498 candidates, including 69 independents, was registered in a process that was largely inclusive and provided voters with a range of political choices. Contrary to OSCE commitments and other international obligations, however, there are disproportionate restrictions on candidacy rights the statement says. While there was general confidence in the accuracy and inclusiveness of the voting register, the May changes to the election laws also effectively disenfranchised 150,000 citizens living abroad for the parliamentary elections.

“For an election to be meaningful, voters first have to be offered a genuine choice, and voters were given that choice here. That choice also has to be between candidates competing on a level playing field and who have equal access to independent media to explain their platforms. In this, there is still work to do,” said Ambassador Audrey Glover, Head of the OSCE/ODIHR long-term election observation mission. “Elections are about voters, and the main problem for voters was understanding the significant last-minute changes to election laws, which affected the rules of the game profoundly and raised questions about political motivation.” 

Despite undue campaign restrictions, the freedoms of assembly and association were respected and candidates were generally able to convey their messages to the electorate. At times the lines were blurred between parties and the administration at both the national and local levels, the observers said. There were multiple instances of alleged vote-buying, which resulted in a number of formal complaints and the deregistration of two candidates.

The GEC received some 50 pre-election complaints. Courts reviewed 21 cases regarding candidate registration, and the police handled more than 1,000 campaign-related complaints. Although legislation clarifies the complaints and appeals process to some extent, a general lack of formalization and transparency in the process within the election administration and the protracted handling of disputes in courts undermined the right to effective remedy.

The media offered extensive election coverage, but abandoned their journalistic role, for the most part simply granting direct access to the politicians. Paid political advertisements and free airtime overshadowed editorial content, and campaign material prepared by political parties was also included in news programming, undercutting the credibility of the media. Consequently, voters were deprived of independent and analytical reporting, the observers said.

In preparation for election day, the General Election Commission met key operational deadlines and fulfilled its mandate. At the same time, the observers said, it lacked transparency and accountability to stakeholders, diminishing trust in the credibility of the process. The testing of vote-counting machines was conducted professionally by the Commission in the presence of stakeholders and, to address concerns over the machines’ accuracy and integrity, the law was amended stipulate that up to 50 per cent of polling stations would be subject to manual recounts. The procedures stipulating the manual re-count, however, were only finalized two days prior to the elections.

All parties and coalitions complied with the 20 per cent gender quota provided for by law, and 26 per cent of contestants were women. There were, however, no women candidates in more than one-third of the constituencies. While there is only one woman member of the General Election Commission, women were better represented in lower-level election commissions. Overall, women remain underrepresented in political life.

Election day proceeded in an orderly manner in most of the country and, while the right to vote was respected, the secrecy of the vote was not consistently ensured. The observers’ assessment of the counting and tabulation of votes was a notable exception to the overall positive assessment of voting, mostly as a result of significant procedural errors or omissions. A number of civil society organizations monitored the pre-election environment, including campaign finance and the media, and issued timely statements highlighting key shortcomings.

For further information, contact:
Thomas Rymer, OSCE/ODIHR, +976 95 14 1635 or +48 609 522 266, thomas.rymer@odihr.pl

Tim Boden, European Parliament, +976 99 976294 or +32 473 844431, timothy.boden@europarl.europa.eu

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