January serves as National Slavery and Human Trafficking Awareness Month, culminating in the annual observation of National Freedom Day on February 1. For many, this month presents an opportunity to refocus efforts to slow, and ultimately stop, human trafficking around the globe, but especially here in the United States. The [...]

The post Analytics can help combat the horrors of human trafficking appeared first on Government Data Connection.

Data-driven is a buzzword again. It feels new and shiny but has been around for years. Yet, people still ask what it means to be data-driven. If you wonder why it’s important to be data-driven, you might ask your bookie. Yes, I said your bookie. In thinking about when I [...]

The post Data-driven is better: Lessons from handicapping the ponies appeared first on Government Data Connection.

I was recently honored to share the stage with government and medical leaders to discuss ways to impact the nation’s opioid epidemic. Hosted by The Washington Post, this event included often spirited conversations on ways to solve this national crisis. As the medical director for SAS US Government, I have [...]

The post Washington Post, new SAS user group, highlight need to collaborate on opioid epidemic appeared first on Government Data Connection.

As we honor Mental Health Month, there are many calls to reduce suffering. Seems reasonable, right? It’s even in California’s Mental Health Services Act (MHSA), where public systems are called to “reduce subjective suffering.” And as we broadly focus more on outcomes in health, measuring suffering (and hopefully its reduction) [...]

The post Can we evaluate whole person suffering? appeared first on Government Data Connection.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Value-Based Payments (VBP), health care’s new magic, “silver bullet” that will solve all our fraud problems. Last month, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued a press release entitled, “HHS Proposes Stark Law and Anti-Kickback Statute Reforms to Support Value-Based and [...]

The post Fighting fraud in the new world of Value-Based Payments appeared first on Government Data Connection.

Following is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Winter 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight (Winter 2020) This Winter 2020 issue of Foresight—number 56 since the journal began in 2005—formally introduces a new section: Integrated Business Planning (IBP), the meaning of which is evolving [...]

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The International Journal of Forecasting has published its 2020-Q1 issue, guest edited by Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, and dedicated entirely to results and commentary on the M4 Forecasting Competition. This issue should be of great interest and value to business forecasting practitioners, and you get online access to it [...]

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With 2018's M4 Forecasting Competition behind us (although analysis, interpretation, and debate continue), the new M5 Competition starts March 2. Running through June 30, M5 is utilizing actual data provided by Walmart. It will be implemented using Kaggle's Platform, with $100,000 in prize money. Forecasting practitioners are encouraged to participate, [...]

The post Get ready for M5 with launch of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Centre appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

What if you suspect something is wrong with your forecasting process? What if the process is consuming too much time and too many resources, while still delivering unsatisfactory results (lousy forecasts). What can you do about it? This post looks at the first two steps to effecting meaningful forecasting process [...]

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Two weeks ago we looked at the first two steps in effecting forecasting process change: Justify your suspicions with data Communicate your findings That was the easy part. So why is it that so many organization realize they have a forecasting problem, yet are unable to do anything about it? [...]

The post The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (1 of 2) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

Fildes and Goodwin (F&G) observed the subject (the regional subsidiary of a pharmaceutical company) was using a statistical forecasting system, but not fully trusting its output. Forecasters were making overrides to the system generated forecast to make it look like what they believed it should (e.g., following a life-cycle curve [...]

The post The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (2 of 2) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

Forecasting During Chaos The Institute of Business Forecasting has produced an 80-minute virtual town hall on "Forecasting & Planning During the Chaos of a Global Pandemic." The on-demand video recording is available now and well worth a look. There is much solid practical guidance from an experienced panel: Eric Wilson, [...]

The post Forecasting during chaos: notes from an IBF virtual town hall appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

Following is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Spring 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight (Spring 2020) This Spring 2020 issue of Foresight—number 57 since the journal began in 2005— leads off with Associate Editor Mike Gilliland’s discussion of The M4 Forecasting Competition: [...]

The post Preview of Foresight (Spring 2020) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

Forecasting is a daunting task during normal conditions, and even more so during a disruption. But in times of greatest stress our smartest and most creative people stand out, and our true leaders emerge. You'll find these kinds of leaders among my colleagues at SAS -- smart and creative people [...]

The post Forecasting during chaos: predicting impact on demand and supply appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

In recent posts (March 26, April 21) we've looked at forecasting in the face of chaos and disruption. We've seen that traditional time series forecasting methods (used during "normal" times) can be creatively augmented with additional methods like clustering, similarity analysis, epidemiologic models, and simulation. While it is unreasonable to [...]

The post Forecasting during denial: when management can't handle the truth appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal.

Standing crops like wheat, paddy, mustard, chana, chillies, pulses etc, are ready for harvest in many parts of India but the lockdown and restrictions have created a situation where harvesting, transport and marketing is curtailed.

By front-loading PM-Kisan, the Centre has transferred Rs 13,855 crore as the first instalment of Rs 2,000 to each of the 6.93 crore farmers as on Friday, the finance ministry tweeted.

The pile-up of harvested or un-harvested perishables may have caused farmers a loss of around Rs 15,000 crore. Market arrivals of fruits and vegetables have sharply fallen since the imposition of the lockdown.

While four of the MPC members voted in favour of the eventual 75-basis point (bps) cut, external members Chetan Ghate and Pami Dua argued for a 50-bps cut, the minutes, released on Monday, showed.

The transfer of around Rs 17,400 crore under the PM-Kisan is being front-loaded. However, most of these interventions will benefit the rural poor more than their urban counterparts, according to analysts.

In its status report submitted earlier, the Centre had said that all the steps were being taken for the welfare and benefit of migrant workers.

The letter has urged, mainly for wage subsidy to large employers, on the lines of the Netherlands and Australia .

CPC used a web-based survey to reach out to 1,252 respondents in 31 cities and towns of Maharashtra.

Out of 230 lakh tonne annual consumption, only a third of it is met via domestic production. Edible oils prices have gone up as the country’s 600 refineries, 500 solvent plants and 10,000 crushing mills have reduced output by half compared to pre-Covid levels, industry experts said.

Further, the Board said that it was processing an additional 1.75 lakh refund claims, which would be credited directly to the taxpayer bank account in 5-7 business days from issuance.

Job guarantee programme (MGNREGA) works are allowed with strict implementation of social distancing and face mask.

At the same time, long term FPI investment limits in G-secs have been brought down to Rs 1.03 lakh crore from the prevailing limit of Rs 1.15 lakh crore  a reduction of almost $1.5 billion.

The three states are among the top five electricity users (other two being Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) and fall in power consumption in these places dragged down the country’s annual demand growth to a six-year low of 1.3%.

Currently, only an ad-hoc framework for valuation professionals is in place, which is basically governed by the Companies Act, and the government has designated the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) as the authority to implement the new regime of registered valuers.

A majority of sugar companies decided to make hand sanitisers to supply to hospitals by using a part of the ethanol/ENA production, thereby ensuring that the country does not face any shortage of good quality hand sanitisers.

Kerala has the country's highest Covid-19 recovery rate with218 out of the 387 coronavirus positive cases recovering . The state has also decided to increase the number and extent of testing, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan told mediapersons.

The Lasalgaon APMC officials said that another reason for imposing restrictions is the drop in demand of onions. According to officials, the demand has reduced to a great extent in domestic markets.

The agricultural output in the economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter (Q3) of FY20, against 3.1% in Q2 of FY20.

Even while the government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have provided some stimulus, further support may be required to help real estate and for the economy to stay afloat during the crisis.

While the government has fixed the wheat MSP at Rs 1,925/quintal, traders are buying the grain at about Rs 1,700-1,800/quintal in mandis in Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Banks have been facing difficulty due to the shutdown following COVID-19 pandemic and a cut in LCR requirement is likely to manage their liquidity effectively.

For Kerala, this would mean the mandate to borrow up to Rs 18,000 crore to address its capital expenditure squeeze.

According to the June 7, 2019, circular of the RBI, banks had to make additional 20% provisioning for the cases where resolution could not be reached over a period of 210 days, after signing the inter-creditor agreement.

Meanwhile, the UP government had, on Thursday, issued an order allowing nine types of industries to run conditionally with essential services.

As per data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the total reserves stood at $476.475 billion at the end of the week.

The measure has been taken by the RBI to meet sectoral credit needs at a time when the institutions are facing difficulty in tapping the market.

Prior to RBI’s announcement on Friday, three-month moratorium was limited to accounts whose installments were falling due after March 1, 2020.

According to sector experts, NBFCs' outstanding credit to the commercial real estate stood at Rs 1.29 lakh crore as on September 30, 2019.

A banking analyst told FE: “As of now, the directive is about retaining profits, but if it is extended beyond September, there could be a stock impact.”

With the increased WMA limit, state governments are expected to plan their market borrowings in a better way rather than bunch up their borrowings, leading to oversupply issues.

As for growth, the governor stuck to sharing the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) view on India's growth, offering no forecast from the central bank.

The need of the hour is to promote remote working and expand gig economy, speakers at a Niti Aaayog-organised Webinar said.

The stock of products with retailers currently is just about sufficient and distributors have been directed to supply them with quantities that will last for about four days or so.

Seeking setting aside of the orders, the exporter said that directing private establishments to compulsorily pay 100% wages during lockdown is “illegal, unconstitutional” and violative of Articles 14 and 19 of the Constitution of India.

The move comes after renewable companies made representations to the government to allow a blanket extension for six months to overcome supply-side disruptions in completing the projects.