Antony Overstall, James McGree.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 15, Number 1, 103--131.

Abstract:
A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models. Although straightforward in principle, there are several challenges to finding Bayesian designs in practice. Firstly, the utility and expected utility are rarely available in closed form and require approximation. Secondly, the design space can be of high-dimensionality. In the case of intractable likelihood models, these problems are compounded by the fact that the likelihood function, whose evaluation is required to approximate the expected utility, is not available in closed form. A strategy is proposed to find Bayesian designs for intractable likelihood models. It relies on the development of an automatic, auxiliary modelling approach, using multivariate Gaussian process emulators, to approximate the likelihood function. This is then combined with a copula-based approach to approximate the marginal likelihood (a quantity commonly required to evaluate many utility functions). These approximations are demonstrated on examples of stochastic process models involving experimental aims of both parameter estimation and model comparison.

Benjamin Letham, Brian Karrer, Guilherme Ottoni, Eytan Bakshy.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 495--519.

Abstract:
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error. Bayesian optimization is a promising technique for efficiently optimizing multiple continuous parameters, but existing approaches degrade in performance when the noise level is high, limiting its applicability to many randomized experiments. We derive an expression for expected improvement under greedy batch optimization with noisy observations and noisy constraints, and develop a quasi-Monte Carlo approximation that allows it to be efficiently optimized. Simulations with synthetic functions show that optimization performance on noisy, constrained problems outperforms existing methods. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with two real-world experiments conducted at Facebook: optimizing a ranking system, and optimizing server compiler flags.

Chao Du, S. C. Kou.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 35, Number 1, 75--91.

Abstract:
Toward the last quarter of the 20th century, the emergence of single-molecule experiments enabled scientists to track and study individual molecules’ dynamic properties in real time. Unlike macroscopic systems’ dynamics, those of single molecules can only be properly described by stochastic models even in the absence of external noise. Consequently, statistical methods have played a key role in extracting hidden information about molecular dynamics from data obtained through single-molecule experiments. In this article, we survey the major statistical methodologies used to analyze single-molecule experimental data. Our discussion is organized according to the types of stochastic models used to describe single-molecule systems as well as major experimental data collection techniques. We also highlight challenges and future directions in the application of statistical methodologies to single-molecule experiments.

Karim Fifel
Jan 24, 2018; 38:784-786
Journal Club

Joshua A. Gordon
May 15, 1996; 16:3274-3286
Articles

Original quotes from interview with Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, in Germany's Boerzen-Zeitung, conducted by Mr Mark Schroers and published on 21 November 2019.

Pattern separation and completion are fundamental hippocampal computations supporting memory encoding and retrieval. However, despite extensive exploration of these processes, it remains unclear whether and how top-down processes adaptively modulate the dynamics between these computations. Here we examine the role of expectation in shifting the hippocampus to perform pattern separation. In a behavioral task, 29 participants (7 males) learned a cue-object category contingency. Then, at encoding, one-third of the cues preceding the to-be-memorized objects, violated the studied rule. At test, participants performed a recognition task with old objects (targets) and a set of parametrically manipulated (very similar to dissimilar) foils for each object. Accuracy was found to be better for foils of high similarity to targets that were contextually unexpected at encoding compared with expected ones. Critically, there were no expectation-driven differences for targets and low similarity foils. To further explore these effects, we implemented a computational model of the hippocampus, performing the same task as the human participants. We used representational similarity analysis to examine how top-down expectation interacts with bottom-up perceptual input, in each layer. All subfields showed more dissimilar representations for unexpected items, with dentate gyrus (DG) and CA3 being more sensitive to expectation violation than CA1. Again, representational differences between expected and unexpected inputs were prominent for moderate to high levels of input similarity. This effect diminished when inputs from DG and CA3 into CA1 were lesioned. Overall, these novel findings strongly suggest that pattern separation in DG/CA3 underlies the effect that violation of expectation exerts on memory.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT What makes some events more memorable than others is a key question in cognitive neuroscience. Violation of expectation often leads to better memory performance, but the neural mechanism underlying this benefit remains elusive. In a behavioral study, we found that memory accuracy is enhanced selectively for unexpected highly similar foils, suggesting expectation violation does not enhance memory indiscriminately, but specifically aids the disambiguation of overlapping inputs. This is further supported by our subsequent investigation using a hippocampal computational model, revealing increased representational dissimilarity for unexpected highly similar foils in DG and CA3. These convergent results provide the first evidence that pattern separation plays an explicit role in supporting memory for unexpected information.

Priming refers to the influence that a previously encountered object exerts on future responses to similar objects. For many years, visual priming has been known as a facilitation and sometimes an inhibition effect that lasts for an extended period of time. It contrasts with the recent finding of an oscillated priming effect where facilitation and inhibition alternate over time periodically. Here we developed a computational model of visual priming that combines rhythmic sampling of the environment (attentional oscillation) with active preparation for future events (temporal expectation). Counterintuitively, it shows that both the sustained and oscillated priming effects can emerge from an interaction between attentional oscillation and temporal expectation. The interaction also leads to novel predictions, such as the change of visual priming effects with temporal expectation and attentional oscillation. Reanalysis of two published datasets and the results of two new experiments of visual priming tasks with male and female human participants provide support for the model's relevance to human behavior. More generally, our model offers a new perspective that may unify the increasing findings of behavioral and neural oscillations with the classic findings in visual perception and attention.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT There is increasing behavioral and neural evidence that visual attention is a periodic process that sequentially samples different alternatives in the theta frequency range. It contrasts with the classic findings of sustained facilitatory or inhibitory attention effects. How can an oscillatory perceptual process give rise to sustained attention effects? Here we make this connection by proposing a computational model for a "fruit fly" visual priming task and showing both the sustained and oscillated priming effects can have the same origin: an interaction between rhythmic sampling of the environment and active preparation for future events. One unique contribution of our model is to predict how temporal contexts affects priming. It also opens up the possibility of reinterpreting other attention-related classic phenomena.

The snails are an invasive crop pest that are known to eat more than just coffee rust

The spacecraft Hayabusa2 hurled a four-pound copper ball toward the asteroid's surface at about 4,500 miles an hour to create an artificial crater

The CDC recommends wearing a fabric mask in public where social distancing is difficult, like at the grocery store

Stay-at-home orders have inspired those with ample free time to pick up hands-on projects

Serving in West and Central Asia for many years, Paul and Soonok have one lasting dream: to see a church planting movement there.

FSI Briefs No 3, April 2020. In response to the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), accounting standard setters introduced a new methodology to value loans based on expected credit losses (ECL). The previous approach, based on incurred losses, was viewed as procyclical and inconsistent with prudential objectives. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, several prudential authorities and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), introduced a series of measures to clarify how banks should consider various public and private debt relief programmes in their ECL estimates and in their calculation of regulatory capital. These measures are intended to incentivise banks to continue supporting the real economy, while reducing pressure on banks' ECL provisions, earnings and regulatory capital. Supervisory initiatives that provide capital relief should be augmented by severe constraints on the payment of dividends, bonuses and share buybacks. These joint actions will simultaneously expand banks' lending capacity and enhance their ability to absorb losses. Prudential authorities face difficult trade-offs as they confront the most severe economic crisis in modern times. Encouraging the use of flexibility in applicable accounting standards, while preserving market trust and transparency in the reported financial statements of banks, will be key in fostering both economic and financial stability.

Press release: CPMI and IOSCO share authorities´ experiences in cooperation to increase FMI safety and efficiency, 10 December 2019

The American Geriatrics Society annually honors researchers, clinicians, educators, and emerging health professionals who have made outstanding contributions to high-quality, person-centered care for older people.

In a pandemic, it’s not just truth against misinformation. Every choice is an experiment.

CBC Kitchener-Waterloo speaks to a motherhood expert about managing work and child care during the pandemic.

An associate professor at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management calls the CFL's bid for securing financial aid from the Canadian government a "Hail Mary pass."

The NFL campaign and an abbreviated baseball season may be possible if games are played without fans and players are kept in lockdown, U.S. President Donald Trump’s leading infectious disease adviser said Wednesday.

If you think it's cold this morning, just wait — the forecast low for Friday night is –3 C.

Documents created by the top disease investigators in the U.S. meant to give step-by-step advice to local leaders deciding when and how to reopen public places such as mass transit, day care centres and restaurants during the still-raging pandemic have been shelved by the Trump administration.

Rosario, Argentina :: Church members from a vulnerable community learn about human trafficking and experience care and respect.

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Bank of Italy Working Papers by Concetta Rondinelli and Roberta Zizza

Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers by Eleonora Granziera and Markus Sihvonen

Brydge on Wednesday launched a new update to improve its Brydge Pro+ keyboard with trackpad that recently starting shipping for iPad Pro. AppleInsider goes hands-on with the latest firmware to see how Brydge's improvements have strengthened the user experience of its flagship product.

It's not exactly surprising that with all of the uncertainty in the world, Apple decided that it couldn't provide useful revenue guidance for its fiscal Q3 ending in June. It is unexpected, however, that Apple felt confident in announcing a silver lining to the pandemic -- it expects to sell more Macs and iPads in the summer of 2020 compared to 2019.

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Research suggests that the prevalence of obesity in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is higher than in typically developing children. The US Preventive Services Task Force and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) have endorsed screening children for overweight and obesity as part of the standard of care for physicians. However, the pediatric provider community has been inadequately prepared to address this issue in children with ASD. The Healthy Weight Research Network, a national research network of pediatric obesity and autism experts funded by the US Health Resources and Service Administration Maternal and Child Health Bureau, developed recommendations for managing overweight and obesity in children with ASD, which include adaptations to the AAP’s 2007 guidance. These recommendations were developed from extant scientific evidence in children with ASD, and when evidence was unavailable, consensus was established on the basis of clinical experience. It should be noted that these recommendations do not reflect official AAP policy. Many of the AAP recommendations remain appropriate for primary care practitioners to implement with their patients with ASD; however, the significant challenges experienced by this population in both dietary and physical activity domains, as well as the stress experienced by their families, require adaptations and modifications for both preventive and intervention efforts. These recommendations can assist pediatric providers in providing tailored guidance on weight management to children with ASD and their families.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:

Families of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) often experience challenges navigating multiple systems to access services. Family navigation (FN) is a model to provide information and support to access appropriate services. Few studies have been used to examine FN’s effectiveness for families of children with ASD. This study used mixed methods to (1) characterize FN services received by a sample of families in the Autism Treatment Network; (2) examine change in parent-reported activation, family functioning, and caregiver strain; and (3) explore families’ experiences with FN services.

God uses theatrical evangelism camps to impact children from vulnerable populations as well as the short-term volunteers who serve.

Ryanair has said it expects up to 3,000 jobs to be lost as part of a restructuring of the airline.

OM EAST rejoices at God’s provision sent by post.

As expected, the number of passengers at Berlin airports fell in January. Tegel and Schönefeld dealt with a total of 2,252,265 passengers, 6.9% fewer than in the same month last year.

She burst on to the music scene in 2017 with the single Biggest Fan. In a week's time, Lila Ike will take her musical career to another level with the release of her debut EP The ExPerience, which drops on May 15.Unfazed by the current novel coronavirus crisis Lila is boldly stepping forward with her project bolstered by the popularity of her latest single I Spy.

A group from the U.S. demonstrated God’s love during OM Costa Rica’s city outreach, which focused primarily on working within the slums of San José.

Staying home can save you money. You won't be spending your cash on your commute, on eating out or going to the pub whilst in lockdown, but that's not all. There are other ways you can be savvy with your spending and find ways to save.

Are you frightened of your garden? Terrified of killing your plants and overwhelmed by the sheer choice of species?