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Fed Flying Blind on Economic Outlook as U.S. Slowly Reopens

(Bloomberg) -- Millions of virus-idled American workers are now at home with little more than hand-wringing anxiety about where their next paycheck will come from. They are Jerome Powell’s biggest worry, and how to ease their plight with monetary policy is the Federal Reserve chairman’s largest challenge.The Fed will probably debate using instruments including stronger forward guidance or asset purchases when officials meet next month, which would add more muscle to interest rates that have already been slashed to zero.But those tools require officials to have a forecast they trust of where the economy is heading. The lack of clarity could be a reason to dial down expectations that they would take such steps in June, because officials will struggle to form an outlook as the nation slowly reopens.Policy makers have already described the difficulties that forecasters face.Vice Chairman Richard Clarida warned of “enormous uncertainty” in a CNBC interview and said “we have to be appropriately humble as we’re navigating this period.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Bloomberg Television that forecasting “has become very tough” now because it depends on the course of the virus. Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker described scenarios, including one with a second infection wave and “a painful economic contraction of GDP in 2021 as shutdowns are reintroduced.”Even so, Powell has said that the Fed will do what it can to curb the human tragedy of the virus’s economic harm.He helped nurture the longest U.S. expansion on record, a period of growth that was just starting to reach the most marginalized workers, from people with criminal records to those with little schooling.The Fed chief spent the last year on a listening tour to hear from ordinary Americans and discuss obstacles to even bigger gains.‘Absolute Limit’He’s now pledged to use Fed powers to the “absolute limit” to prevent the contraction from leaving deep scars on the economy’s long-term ability to grow -- through bankruptcies of small businesses or deterioration in worker skills. And he is boldly urging Congress to do more.“It is about not just winning the war against a depression, but it’s about securing the peace, winning the peace. We failed in 2008-09 to secure the peace,” Mohamed El-Erian, a Bloomberg columnist and chief economic adviser to Allianz SE, told Bloomberg Television Friday “We won the war against a threat of depression then, but we did not secure a peace of higher growth, more inclusive growth and sustainability.”In an April 29 press conference, Powell was asked if he’s troubled by the prospect that the downturn does the most harm to Americans who have only just managed to get a foothold in the labor market. “That’s exactly what I worry about,” he said.Record UnemploymentU.S. government data on Friday shows the nation headed in that direction. Employers cut 20.5 million jobs in April and the unemployment rate more than tripled to 14.7%, the harshest labor market downturn in the history of the data series. All the indications point to a brutal recession. The central bank wants to make sure it is as short as possible.Fed officials next month are due to refresh their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, where all 17 anonymously write down a forecast for their policy interest rate, GDP, inflation and unemployment. They skipped the process in March due to a rapidly changing outlook.With so many puzzles yet to be resolved, they may diminish its importance or skip it again at their June 9-10 meeting.Officials have already assured investors that interest rates will be held near zero until they are confident the economy is back on track to achieve their twin goals for full employment and 2% inflation.Zero RatesTraders have priced in zero rates for the rest of the year, and possibly even negative interest rates in 2021, an idea that Powell has dismissed in the past and which other officials played down last week as a prospect in the U.S.With rates already at zero, “the second tool,” said Daly, “has been forward guidance,” and then balance sheet policies. Still, there is a sense at the Fed that monetary policy will have to be complimented with further creative fiscal policy to help push demand higher.Fed officials have worked with the U.S. Treasury and Congress to provide bridge credit to everything from Main Street businesses to the largest corporations.“Will there be a need to do more though?” Powell asked at his April 29 press conference. “I would say that it may well be the case that the economy will need more support from all of us if the recovery is to be a robust one.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.





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Ousted POTUS administration scientist teared up while ripping the slow coronavirus response: "We could've done something and we didn't" : Coronavirus

r/Coronavirus: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus strain (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in the city of Wuhan, China. This subreddit seeks to monitor the …




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Love Is Slow, but It Lasts

Final thoughts on family, faith, and what matters most.

When I first met my husband I was 16 years old. I would have said I fell in love with him immediately. We stood in the darkness of an October night and talked and talked. Two months later we exchanged those words—I love you—also whispered in the dark of night. But it took five more years before we were married, and in that time, that intense emotion that had carried us through the early months became more measured. I still felt giddy when I saw him. I still wanted to spend my life with him. I still counted him as my best friend. But true love, I learned, is slower than that initial emotional and physical connection led me to believe.

Loving our kids was similar. I felt a surge of affection (hormones?) after they were born. I felt fierce protective instincts. I was willing to sacrifice sleep and energy. But building that base of love with them took years. it went slowly. It felt as though the feeling of love was interrupted by the reality of changing diapers and spraying avocado off clothing and willing myself out of bed for one more trip to the potty in the middle of the night. But over time I learned that those moments I saw as interruptions were in fact the seeds of love. Over time, they grew.

In Matthew 13, Jesus tells a parable about the word of God. He says it is like a farmer sowing seed. He says that it falls on all different types of soil, and that when it falls on good soil it grows. I’ve always wanted to have good soil, to be the one whose faith grows firm and strong forever. Truth be told, there have been plenty of seasons where my life resembles the hard soil or the soil that produces quick growth and quick demise. But I’ve only recently noticed that the seed in the good soil, even ...

Continue reading...





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Radiation: Spencer Stoner: going with the flow of slow TV

The beauty of slow TV, says Spencer Stoner, is that it’s different things to different people – a travelogue, an immersive experience, an awesome screensaver. After the success of last year’s Go South, Stoner has spent a month at sea filming Go Further South, a 12-hour journey from Bluff to Antarctica.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Go Further South is perfect for self-isolation.
It’s kind-of an unhappy accident. I’ve been in the final stage of editing and every day I feel like I’m sailing through the Ross Sea in Antarctica and it’s cool to think that…




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12/24/17 - Turn the knob slowly




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Innovation activity slows in Australia according to Innovation Index

IBM Australia and the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne, today announced the launch of the IBM-Melbourne Institute 'Innovation Index of Australian Industry’ second edition. The Study revealed that the annual increase in the rate of innovative activity in Australia in 2006 was only 0.7 percent, with only four industries experiencing an increase in the annual rate of innovation in that period: communication services; mining; finance; and the insurance industry.



  • Energy & Utilities

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Slow Morning

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Thailand's pet groomer reopens as new coronavirus cases slow

Chewy and Miley, both two-year-old Schnauzer dogs, are getting their hair cut at a groomer in Bangkok for the first time since the new coronavirus outbreak began in Thailand in January.




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Slow Road to Recovery after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill for Deep-Sea Communities

The Deepwater Horizon disaster released approximately 4 million barrels of oil from the Macondo Wellhead over the course of 87 days in 2010.  Thus, becoming…




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Human-caused warming will cause more slow-moving hurricanes, warn climatologists

Hurricanes moving slowly over an area can cause more damage than faster-moving storms, and rising global temperatures will likely cause more hurricanes to slow down, said Princeton atmospheric scientist Gan Zhang.




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Slowly Slowly What's Urdu for That... Back in Skardu again Pakistan

Day 24Sleeping in Skardu via Machulo 2230m or maybe 2310m depending on your info sourceKarim is a late starter.Breakfast isn't until after 0800. We are not alone there are 3 other tourists American lawyers as it turns out we bump i




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What Next?: Attention Slowly Turns to the Mother of All Coronavirus Questions

The fight against the coronavirus has paralyzed society and the economy. Lockdown measures are fine for the short term, but they threaten to rapidly destroy the economy and erode our existing social order. What should the next steps be?




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Schools consider how to slowly reopen

As some governors move forward with plans to reopen their states, there appears to be a disconnect between their plans and th -More



  • Teaching and Learning

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Clippers shake off slow start and make 24 three-pointers to beat Heat

The Clippers shook off a slow start to beat the Miami Heat 128-111.




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California reopening would start slow, not be complete for a year or longer, expert estimates

Robert Kim-Farley, infectious disease expert, says Stage 4 of Gov. Newsom's reopening plan for California may not be implemented until mid to late 2021.




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Major U.S. airlines will require masks to slow coronavirus spread

To slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, passengers soon will be required to wear masks by the largest airlines in the U.S.




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Don Winslow drops a new book, 'Broken,' your quarantine read for our fractured times

The bestselling crime novelist plans a virtual book tour for his new title, "Broken," as the coronavirus keeps him home in Southern California.




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Kodi Not Working? Fix Broken & Slow Kodi Now

Is Kodi not working for you? Does Kodi still work for anyone? Come find out how to easily fix a broken Kodi setup or addon and access content today!

The post Kodi Not Working? Fix Broken & Slow Kodi Now appeared first on Kodi Tips.




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Utah jobless claims slow as businesses near reopening

Utah's pace of applications for unemployment benefits is slowing, but still at historic highs, according to figures released Thursday.

       




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COVID-19 updates: Washington County counts 9 new cases Monday; state says spread is slowing

Health officials counted nine new cases of COVID-19 in southwest Utah, although the Utah epidemiologist says infection rates are in decline.

       




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Stunned by coronavirus, a college town slowly awakens to a surreal new normal

At Indiana University, the invincibility of youth and the freedom of college life are shattered by a school year cut short.

       




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'Slow-rolling disaster': Exclusive look inside the coronavirus units at IU Health Methodist Hospital

IndyStar went inside IU Health Methodist Hospital for an exclusive look at its COVID-19 units in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

       




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California slowly reopens as stores offer curbside pickup. Will it be enough to keep businesses afloat?

California's tepid reopening amid the coronavirus sparked a mix of excitement, confusion and uncertainty.




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Urban League CEO: Indiana is slowly reopening, but Hoosiers must remain diligent

The fight to flatten the curve and slow the spread of the coronavirus is on all of us.

       




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Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown

Nasa says major decreases in nitrogen dioxide levels are "at least partly" linked to the outbreak.




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News24.com | Egypt reopens slowly to revive pandemic-hit economy

Egypt's economy had just started to recover after years of political turmoil and militant attacks when the coronavirus crisis hit, impacting especially its vital tourism sector.




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Fantasy Football start/sit tips for Week 8: Expect a slow week from the Saints' Michael Thomas

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Fantasy Football start/sit tips Week 9: Adrian Peterson won’t slow down against the Falcons

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Are you there, Oprah? A-list celebrity endorsements for 2020 candidates are slow to come.

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Slow Cooker Taco Soup

This slow cooker taco soup with ground beef is so easy — and SO GOOD! It's perfect for busy weeks with flexible cooking times for any schedule. Serve with tortilla chips, cilantro-lime rice, or cornbread.

Continue reading "Slow Cooker Taco Soup" »




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News24.com | SONA: Slow pace of implementation eroding public’s confidence in the government




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Signs of Slowing Unemployment; U.S. Jobless Claims Decline for Four Weeks in a Row

Signs of Slowing Unemployment

Although millions of people lost their jobs because of the coronavirus, a surge of companies is hiring additional employees due to increased demands.





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Signs of Slowing Unemployment; More Than Half of States Had Fewer Jobless Claims for Four Weeks in a Row

Signs of Slowing Unemployment

Following an unprecedented surge in jobless claims in March due to the coronavirus, unemployment is continuously slowing in April in 26 states.




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Local health unit credits public with slowing COVID spread, encourages cottagers to stay home

While infection rates remain steady across the region, the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit is reporting more than half of all 360 cases have now recovered.




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Progress in tackling illegal logging slows as new trends offset effective reforms

15 July 2015

Lire en français >

阅读中国 >

Efforts to address illegal logging and reduce the trade in illegal timber have borne fruit and prompted some positive reforms in producer countries, a new report from Chatham House has found. However, changes in the sector mean overall trade in illegal timber has not fallen in the last decade. 
  
EU and US policies designed to reduce demand for illegal timber have helped cut illegal imports to those markets. These reforms and the EU’s partnership agreements with producer countries have prompted improvements in forest governance and a fall in large-scale illegal timber production.

But growth of demand in emerging markets means that the progressive policies of so-called ‘sensitive markets’ are now less influential. China is now the world’s largest importer and consumer of wood-based products, as well as a key processing hub. India, South Korea, and Vietnam are also growing markets. The increasing role of small-scale producers, whose activities often fall outside legal frameworks, and a rapid increase in illegal forest conversion, also present new challenges. 
  
Alison Hoare: 'The EU and US have spearheaded some progressive and effective reforms. However, the changing scale and nature of the problem demands more coordinated international action. To stop further deforestation and associated carbon emissions, and to help achieve global objectives for sustainable development, the EU and US need to maintain their leadership while other countries - especially China, Japan, India and South Korea - need to step up their efforts to tackle illegal logging.'

The Chatham House report, which is based on the studies of 19 countries, which include key producers, consumers, or processors of timber, and is an update of a 2010 study found: 

Timber production

  • More than 80 million m3 of timber was illegally produced in 2013 in the nine producer countries assessed, accounting for about one-third of their combined total production.
  • An estimated 60% of this illegal timber is destined for these countries’ domestic markets.
  • Small-scale producers are increasingly important – for example, in Cameroon, the DRC and Ghana, they account for an estimated 50, 90 and 70% respectively of annual timber production. The majority of this is illegal.
  • For the nine producer countries, the area of forest under voluntary legality verification or sustainability certification schemes increased by nearly 80% between 2000 and 2013. 

Imports of illegal wood-based products 

  • In most of the consumer and producer countries assessed, the volume of illegal imports of wood-based products fell during the period 2000–13. 
  • The exceptions were China, and India and Vietnam where the volume of illegal imports more than doubled. 
  • As a proportion of the whole, illegal imports declined for nearly all countries. 
  • However, at the global level, the proportion of illegal timber imports remained steady at 10% - a result of the growth of the Chinese market. 

The EU and US 

  • The volumes of illegal imports into the UK, France and the Netherlands nearly halved over the period 2000-13, from just under 4 million m3 to 2 million m3. 
  • The volume of illegal imports into the US increased between 2000 and 2006, from around 5 to 9 million m3, and then declined to just under 6 million m3 in 2013. 
  • In 2013, more than 60% of illegal imports of wood-based products to the UK and US came from China.

China

  • The volume of illegal imports into China doubled between 2000 and 2013 from 17 to 33 million m3; but as a proportion of the whole illegal imports fell, from 26 to 17%.
  •  The volume of exports of wood-based products (legal and illegal) from the nine producer countries to China nearly tripled, from 12 million m3 in 2000 to 34 million m3 in 2013.

The Chatham House report makes the following recommendations:

  • The EU and US need to maintain and reinforce current efforts 
  • Other countries need to take stronger action – China in particular, but also India, Japan and South Korea
  • Strong international cooperation is needed to maintain & reinforce current efforts – the G20 could provide a forum to galvanise international action
  • Producer countries need to focus on strengthening efforts to tackle corruption, improving legality within the small-scale sector, and reforming land-use governance 

     
Alison Hoare: 'Developing countries are losing significant amounts of potential revenue from illegal logging, which is also causing the loss and degradation of forests, depleting livelihoods, and contributing to social conflict and corruption. Tackling illegal logging and strengthening forest governance are essential for achieving critical climate and development goals. Having seen the progress that can be made, it’s imperative that governments agree to work together to rise to new challenges and promote a more sustainable forest sector for the benefit of all.'   

Read the report >>

Editor's notes

For more information or to arrange interviews please contact:
 
Alison Hoare, report author, Chatham House, +44 (0) 2073143651

Amy Barry, Di:ga Communications, +44 (0) 7980 664397

The report and associated infographics will be available to download from the project website and the Chatham House website from 15 July 2015. 

These findings are part of Chatham House’s Indicators of Illegal Logging and Related Trade project, which looks at consumer, producer and processing countries. 

Follow us on Twitter: @CH_logging    


External expert spokespeople available for comment: 
 
Téodyl Nkuintchua, Programmes Coordinator, Centre pour l’Environnement et le Développement, Cameroon, (+237) 674 37 96 43, Skype: teodyl
 
Rod Taylor, Director, Forests, WWF International via Huma Khan, +1 202-203-8432  
Approved quote: 'The report shows the progress made in keeping illegally-sourced wood out of Western markets, but also highlights the urgent need to focus more on emerging countries and informal markets. It also highlights the global problem of illegal forest clearing, and the need for new policy measures to help sound forest stewardship compete with the conversion of forests to other land-uses.'
 
Ben Cashore, Professor of Environmental Governance and Political Science, Yale University, +1 203 432-3009
 
Mauricio Volvodic, Executive Director, Imaflora, Brazil, +55 19 3429 0810, +55 19 98157 2129
 
Chris Davies MP, Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Forestry and Conservative MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, via Simon Francis, 020 7061 6252 
Approved quote: 'While it is encouraging that illegal timber imports to the UK have halved, it is vital that we remove the market for illegally logged timber in the UK altogether. One way is to ensure we have a sustainable forestry and wood processing sector that can supply more of our timber needs. Government can aid this by enabling the sector to plant more trees now and in the future.'




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Your Slow Website is Killing Your Business- Level up with our affordable VPS server




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CBD News: The Convention on Biological Diversity is pleased to partner with the Slow Food International for this year's celebrations of the International Day for Biological Diversity, on 22 May 2019, which focuses on biodiversity as the foundation of




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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65682: Running FedSQL with an Oracle table is slow, even when you use a LIMIT clause

When you query an Oracle table and use the LIMIT clause using either SAS  Federation Server or FedSQL, a row limit is not passed to the database. In this scenario, a Full Article



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Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65909: SAS Visual Analytics Designer 7.5 responds slowly when you edit large or complex reports

If your SAS Visual Analytics report contains many sections and objects, you might encounter performance problems when you are editing the report.   A hot fix is planned for this issue.




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GI bleeding, slow to diagnose, slow to treat

The National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) has been examining the treatment of acute GI bleeds in England's NHS. Two of the authors, Martin Sinclair, consultant surgeon, and Simon McPherson, consultant vascular radiologist, join us to talk about their findings. Read the full...




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On the Brink of Demographic Crisis, Governments in East Asia Turn Slowly to Immigration

With many countries in East Asia facing unfavorable demographic shifts in the form of aging populations, low fertility, and shrinking workforces, governments in 2016 continued to explore immigration as a potential policy solution. However, a tradition of cultural homogeneity and wariness among publics about increased immigration is leading policymakers to test the waters with very small steps.




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As COVID-19 Slows Human Mobility, Can the Global Compact for Migration Meet the Test for a Changed Era?

The coronavirus pandemic dramatically reshaped how human mobility is managed just as the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration was beginning to move from paper to implementation. As governments face pressing public-health, economic, and other concerns in responding to COVID-19, this MPI Europe commentary explores whether the first comprehensive global agreement on migration can adjust to a changed reality.




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Index shows that dentists slowly but surely embracing electronic means of doing business

Despite the ADA Council on Dental Benefits’ efforts, the practice of using automated electronic means for verifying eligibility and benefits, checking claim status or receiving and reconciling payment remains underutilized by many dental providers according to an index, said Dr. Randall Markarian, council chair.




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Under Lockdown Amid COVID-19 Pandemic, Europe Feels the Pinch from Slowed Intra-EU Labor Mobility

Border closures and lockdowns amid the COVID-19 pandemic have put a chill on intra-EU labor mobility, most immediately with the difficulty for European farmers to gain access to much-needed seasonal workers and for health-care institutions to get care workers. This article explores how these workers, who often face difficult situations, may be more vulnerable now. It also takes on implications for intra-EU labor mobility post-pandemic.





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SLOW-COOKED QUINCES WITH MANDARIN AND ROSEWATER

Once you've peeled and cored the quinces there's really little work to do to make this gorgeous dessert. They just bubble away happily for a few hours while the sugar and long slow cooking cast their spell, transforming the quinces' hard, ivory-coloured flesh until it's meltingly soft and an incredible deep-rose colour.




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Slow-cooked pork shoulder with apples and crackling

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Justine Schofield. Justine's latest book is "Dinner With Justine".




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The slow moon climbs : the science, history and meaning of menopause / Susan P. Mattern.

Menopause.