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Tentatively, parts of Europe are emerging from lockdown, with France and Belgium joining the list of countries easing measures on Monday, amid fears of a second coronavirus wave.

As the dust settles, hindsight makes the chain of events that culminated in UK’s vote to leave easier to discern

It is two months since British voters surprised themselves by deciding to end the UK’s 43-year relationship with the European Union – “independence day” to some and “the worst political decision since 1945” to others.

As stunned political leaderships on both sides of the Channel continue dithering about what to do next, it is worth looking back at the origins of a crisis the EU elite had not expected.

Catch up on our debate on Theresa May’s plans to push ahead with Brexit and what this means for workers and business

2.08pm BST

Nearly four months after June 23’s fateful Brexit vote, even more half baked nonsense is still being talked by both sides than was spouted during the shabby campaign. Nothing is clear except that it is all going to be a lot trickier to disengage from the EU than some foolish people said – and still say despite mounting evidence to the contrary.

So my starting point is one of humility as I learn stuff I didn’t known before. It’s safe to say that some things will be better outside the EU, others worse, some sectors and individuals will thrive, others languish. The consequences of Britain’s leap in the dark – 37% of the total electorate voted Brexit by a very slender margin – are still largely unknown for all 28 members states. Only charlatans and romantics pretend otherwise.

If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate and we would have to recognize that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels, but by chronic British short termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.”

1.57pm BST

We will be wrapping up the debate in the next four minutes, but we welcome any final comments and remarks.

We will keep comments open until 2.15pm

1.56pm BST

A view from Nigel Stern, who runs a design agency in London:

The biggest impact will hiring staff with the right skills. It’s already almost impossible to find skilled staff for our design agency - I say this having battled to keep an Australian whose Visa ran out, and lost the battle. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be when Brexit happens. Good skills are literally the biggest growth driver, so for my business Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen

1.43pm BST

An anonymous take from a bookseller, who thinks that Brexit will be bad for business and will have profound consequences for non-British citizens living and working in the UK.

I am a small on-line antiquarian and used bookseller. Since Brexit I have noticed an uptick in sales to the United States, but I have noticed a distinct decline in sales to Europe, though they do still take place. The effect of Brexit on Europe’s perception of Britain as a country is very negative - and the announcements from the Tory party conference will only reinforce the impression that Britain is not opening up for business. In fact, the very reverse: closing down for business and pursuing policies of discrimination against foreigners, especially from Europe.

The level of discrimination against immigrants from Europe is most definitely alienating what should be Britain’s closest friends. As someone with a slight foreign accent I no longer feel entirely safe in this country. A hard Brexit would be a disaster for me - as many books go abroad and the customs paperwork would add a considerable workload as well as extra costs in the case of more valuable books. There literally is not a single advantage to be derived from Brexit except for the lower pound, which could have been lowered by other means which would have done far less damage to Britain’s economy and society. I don’t know whether in future I will be able to continue business in this country and am wondering whether to move elsewhere.

1.33pm BST

News of job losses in Scotland are alarming.

The Scottish economy would suffer a severe shock if the UK has a “hard Brexit”, losing up to 80,000 jobs and seeing wages fall by £2,000 a head per year, an economics thinktank has warned.

The Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) has told the Scottish parliament that entirely leaving the EU single market – known as a hard Brexit – would see the Scottish economy decline by 5% overall, or by £8bn within a decade.

Related: Hard Brexit could cost Scotland £2,000 a head and 80,000 jobs

1.21pm BST

One commenter says that Brexit will cause some economic pain, although the extent of this is not yet known.

What we know for sure is that Brexit of any substantial kind will certainly cause some economic pain in the short, medium, and long-term, from breaking existing trading relationships and loss of easy access to a large pool of human capital. The additional opportunities, on the other hand, are all long to very long-term, and are uncertain and beyond the UK's control.

Even the bits which are under the UK's control (like massive investment in training and education in a way which actually achieves something instead of pfaffing around with needless re-structuring and testing kids to the edge of mental breakdown) are all things that would have made sense before, so it's optimistic to imagine that they'll happen in a future where the public finances are under more pressure than ever before (once Brexit decline takes hold).

1.16pm BST

Here’s a view from Richard Rose, who is worried about Brexit’s impact on the car industry.

I am an engineer working at Rolls-Royce in Derby but I have spent most of my working life so far in the car industry. I am 100% certain that if the UK Brexits out of the single market, it can wave ¾ of its car industry goodbye within 5 years. The idea of replacing the current arrangement with one of tit-for-tat tariffs on cars sold into and out of the UK is preposterous – we will be in the absurd situation of paying taxpayers’ cash to car companies in the form of ongoing subsidies, and every successive government will be looking for ways to reduce or avoid these payments every four years.

The whole arrangement sounds ridiculous and seeing as all the manufacturers who build here have sites inside the Eurozone where they can avoid all that uncertainty, what do you think they’ll do? Its keeping me awake at night as I feel ‘my’ industry is potentially about to be rendered economically unviable just as my right to live and work abroad is being curtailed.

12.54pm BST

Quitting the European Union’s single market is considered bad for business unless you belong to the small band of economists who believe that Brussels’ employment and environmental protections stifle innovation, that maintaining a low pound is easier outside the EU, and restrictions on migrants is unlikely to ever be enforced.

But the threat from Nissan to switch investment in its next car away from the north east without some form of compensation is the clearest indication yet that multinationals based in the UK to benefit from the single market are going to drift away as they consider an upgrade or new factory that would be cheaper abroad.

12.46pm BST

John Flahive, 51, a documentary producer and sales agent, is concerned about the implications of a “hard Brexit” on his business.

The impact on business is inevitably negative. At the moment we have free movement of goods throughout the EU, all I have to do in my own business is put an address on a shipment and off it goes. It’s just not possible for whatever is put in its place to improve on that.

A ‘trade deal’ usually involves reduced tariffs which is a dis-improvement on no tariffs at all. This would bring back customs paperwork and all the associated admin, whereas currently we have none at all. There is no upside, only a downside.

12.42pm BST

This has just launched online. Polly Toynbee asks why the health secretary would insult the one third of our doctors who were born abroad by suggesting that they’re only “interim”.

Hunt’s claim that we will be “self-sufficient” in medical staff is nonsense – and he knows it. These new doctors won’t qualify as consultants until 2030, while everywhere has ageing populations and the WHO estimates a global shortage of 2 million doctors. The number of people in Britain over the age of 85 will double by 2037 – and who is to care for them if we chase away all foreigners?

Related: Telling NHS doctors to go home is self-harming madness | Polly Toynbee

12.36pm BST

An interesting take from one commenter below the line:

The main reason I don't think it'll be good for business is the way it is and has effected Britain's image around Europe and probably the world. Made in Britain isn't actually very popular in Europe at the moment. When I am with my girlfriend in Spain what image of Britain is on the television? Farage, Boris Johnson and their xenophobic rhetoric. After all it's the consumers who are the most important when it comes to our exports. Do you really want to buy goods from a nation who's image is one of distaste and xenophobia to their neighbours. Look at the effect the Iraq war had on French products in the U.S when they went ( rightfully ) against the Iraq war.... Everything Farage and Boris do is making it far easier for the E.U to take a tough stance in negotiations with support from their people. Especially when they act so arrogantly by saying the E.U has too much to lose and will have to take any deal we offer.

Brexiters seem to have no idea on how politics will effect us more than anything else.

12.25pm BST

Comments are open below the line and our debate is underway.

Kicking us off from the form is a small business owner in the south east of England, who has noted a definite impact of the vote:

I’ve already seen an impact in car buying attitudes in the months following the referendum. Traditionally, September is a busy time for my business (my company move new and used cars around the U.K.) and already the volume of movements compared to March and this time last year is worrying.

Every dealership I visit, staff say the same thing; “It’s unusually quite for this time of year”. The uncertainty created by the referendum is clearly having an affect and I worry for the future of my business once article 50 is triggered. If people are out of work they won’t be buying cars, meaning I won’t be moving them round the U.K.

12.22pm BST

Polly Toynbee raised some interesting questions about the impact of hard Brexit this week. She wrote:

As speech after speech salutes “taking back control” as “a fully independent sovereign country”, only old sober-sides Philip Hammond throws cold water. There is a price to pay, he warns. He didn’t disagree with Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that Brexit will cost the UK 4% in growth in coming years.

Related: Will Theresa May be the next Tory leader to be bulldozed by the Europhobes? | Polly Toynbee

11.02am BST

Theresa May made one thing perfectly clear during this year’s Conservative party conference: Brexit means Brexit.

The Tory leader said controlling immigration and withdrawing from the jurisdiction of the European court of justice would be her priorities during European Union (EU) exit. She says Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March 2017.

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