Belarus-EU border crisis reveals wider security threat Expert comment NCapeling 8 December 2021

By engineering a crisis at the Belarus border, Lukashenka is attempting to exacerbate vulnerabilities within the EU. Securitizing migration is not the answer.

When thousands of migrants began freezing to death in the forests on the Belarus border with Poland, Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka was forcing the European Union (EU) into a tough choice – either give in to blackmail and welcome migrants whose attempts to trespass the EU border were a result of his policy of luring them to Belarus to put pressure on the EU, or keep the borders closed and declare solidarity with Poland despite its known mistreatment and illegal pushbacks of potential asylum-seekers.

Lukashenka’s action was aptly exploiting three key pressure points of the EU – as a normative power where the human dignity of migrants is overlooked while the European border and coastguard agency Frontex stands by, as a geopolitical actor seeking to externalize its migration problem by signing readmission agreements with transit countries, and as a community of values with the EU-Poland dispute over rule of law.

His approach is typical ‘dictaplomacy’ and democracies which have confronted such a ‘continuation of war by other means’ in their past dealings with dictatorships know that blackmail mostly serves to divert attention away from a rogue leader’s misdemeanours towards his own population. But if this had been game of chess the EU would have been in check.

Thankfully checkmate was avoided – so far – as a compromise was found following weeks of heightened diplomatic efforts. Lukashenka was forced to back-pedal and take care of the migrants, and no humanitarian corridor was needed as the EU sent funds and took measures to support organizations providing shelter for the migrants in Belarus, while airlines and governments in the source countries were pressured to restrict flights to Minsk and started repatriating part of the migrants.

Causing a nuisance

‘Operation Gateway’ – the outline of which was allegedly drawn several years ago and tested by Russia in 2016 at its own borders with Norway and Finland – certainly caused a nuisance, but it ultimately backfired as Lukashenka now has to manage the remaining 2,000-5,000 migrants who refused to be flown back, as well as facing increased international sanctions. However, the fact that Angela Merkel had to personally call him made it look as if Lukashenka did not back down for nothing.

The EU and NATO, including the UK, only reacted collectively to this crisis once it was already out of hand, leaving questions over whether this experience of Lukashenka’s dictaplomacy is a wake-up call to boost resilience against rogue warfare, and to upgrade strategic assessments of the ‘Lukashenka problem’ too.

Back in June, the Belarus ministry of foreign affairs (MFA) announced its withdrawal from the Eastern Partnership and the visa facilitation and readmission agreement with the EU, while Lithuania sent early warnings about a ‘hybrid attack’ at its own border with Belarus. In August, Der Spiegel reported details of an alleged smuggling scheme whereby Tsentr Kurort – a company closely linked to the Administration of the President of Belarus with offices in the Middle East – was handling the shipping, accommodation, and relocation of migrants.

The smuggling of migrants was entirely predictable as Lukashenka has hinted many times Belarus could stop ‘protecting the EU from armed migrants’ seeking to enter it illegally. He has upped his rhetoric beyond notions of hybrid warfare by saying he needs Russian nuclear-capable bombers to ‘help him navigate the migrant crisis’, even hinting Belarus could station both Russian nuclear weapons and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. This shows Lukashenka is feeling increasingly cornered – which could lead to more unpredictable security crises.

Russia and Belarus are deepening relations

Although there is no smoking gun pointing to direct Russian involvement in orchestrating the hybrid attack at the EU’s borders, a new step in the military rapprochement between the two countries came when Putin and Lukashenka approved a new Military Doctrine of the Union-State of Russia and Belarus – a non-public document including a joint concept of migration policy. Lukashenka has also come off the fence over Crimea by openly accepting the legality of the peninsula’s integration with Russia.

Given Russia is also sabre-rattling over Ukraine, the risk of an accidental escalation into armed conflict is increasing in what feels like a return to classic Cold War logic, with the difference that the East is now offensively using the South for confronting the West. In recognition of the threat, the UK has joined the US, Canada, and the EU in the fresh sanctions on Belarus.

Crisis on Europe’s doorstep 2 February 2022 — 4:00PM TO 5:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 4 January 2022 Online

Domestic instability and foreign interference is destabilizing Bosnia, with the declining strength of the 1995 Dayton Agreement symbolic of the troubles growing within the country. 

Milorad Dodik’s continuing efforts to remove the international judicial and security presence in Bosnia, along with calls for the secession of Republic Sprska and increasing Russian efforts to destabilize the country are concerning many, particularly nearby European Union (EU) member states.

On 3 November 2021, the United Nations (UN) Security Council voted unanimously to extend the EU-led multinational stabilization force for another year, as well as NATO Headquarters Sarajevo.

However, the role played by the Office of High Representative was absent from the outcome and leaves the implementation of civilian aspects emanating from the Dayton Accords in a position of uncertainty.

Against a background of ongoing troubles in the country and the growing proxy conflict between the West and Russia, the situation in Bosnia is worrying.

The expert panel discusses:

• Why has the situation in Bosnia been allowed to deteriorate to such a condition?
• What is Europe’s best solution to resolve issues in Bosnia and how is it acting to remedy them?
• How have international efforts been hampered to support development in Bosnia?
• What are Russia’s aims in the country? 
• Does US foreign policy recognize Bosnia as a strategic partner?

Read the transcript

This event forms part of Chatham House’s work on Reinvigorating Multilateralism.

Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally Expert comment NCapeling 16 March 2022

The effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict.

Russia and Ukraine rank 11th and 55th respectively in terms of their national economies but, for the global supply of critical resources such as energy, food, and minerals, these two countries together are far bigger hitters – and both the threat and reality of resource flows from them being reduced have already driven up global prices.

The world is already facing a cost-of-living squeeze coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, so further price spikes or supply constraints have the potential to seriously undermine food and energy security, equitable access to basic goods and services, and social stability around the world – which can then potentially create systemic risks for economies and societies.

The global implications of the Ukraine conflict are only just beginning to be explored fully but the immediate impacts of the crisis on global markets are already well-documented. In the first few days after Russia’s invasion, energy prices spiked, triggering further fertilizer price rises – as fertilizer production is highly energy intensive – which in turn is contributing to food price rises because fertilizer costs are an important factor in food production.

Interruptions to shipping in the region around Ukraine – as well as globally – have impeded the flow of goods which pushed prices up even further, while economic sanctions on cross-border flows of goods and finance are further adding to market pressures. But this is just the start – these impacts will bring ripple effects which propagate far beyond their point of origin, known as ‘cascading risks’.

Risk is a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – in terms of the Ukraine invasion, the hazard is the conflict and its immediate impacts on the societies and economies of Ukraine and Russia, while exposure relates to the degree to which other countries are likely to be affected depending on how much they are integrated into the global economy or the ‘just in time’ nature of their supply chains.

Vulnerability relates to a society’s capacity to mitigate the harmful impacts of the conflict, such as controlling borders, sourcing alternative goods from suppliers, or protecting against price or supply shocks.

Risk cascades – the second- and third-order impacts of the original hazard and of responses to that hazard – can interact across sectoral boundaries – as with energy and food, for example – and their compound effect can lead to overall systemic risks for society.

Anticipating this potential is essential to understanding the nature and scale of the global ramifications being felt from the Ukraine conflict. Recent work in the UK to assess levels of cascading risks resulting from a changing climate – the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – provides a valuable framework for thinking about this area.

It examines key pathways for risk to cascade through global systems – when applied to the situation in Ukraine, these pathways and their interactions offer an indication of the scale of crisis that citizens face far beyond Ukraine’s and Russia’s borders.

Interruptions to the flows of goods and energy

In globalized trade networks, localized disruption to supply chains rapidly yields widespread international impacts – of particular concern is the immediate supply of food because most countries rely on lean supply chains and some may only have a few days food within their own borders.

Experience from previous food price crises indicate even small interruptions to trade can result in runs on the market and rapid price inflation. In the case of this conflict, the trade interruption will be far from small because, between them, Russia and Ukraine export around one-quarter of all traded wheat, more than three-quarters of traded sunflower oil, and one-sixth of traded maize.

Energy markets are also a concern because many countries use more energy than they produce and therefore rely on imports of energy or fuel for domestic use. Russia produces around ten per cent of the world’s commercial energy with a concentration of sales in major regions such as the European Union (EU) and China.

As with food, a shortfall in energy provision leads to market runs and rapid inflation as actors compete in a tightening space, while poorly designed policy interventions by nations trying to ensure their own security add further pressure to global supply and worsen price rises. In addition, the closely interconnected nature of energy markets means disruption to one fuel – such as gas in this case – affects global prices for other forms of energy.

The impact of moving people and money

As the last decade richly illustrates, the cross-border flows of people impact those societies absorbing them – for example, contributing to a rise in nationalism – as well as increase the costs of supplying essential resources. Given many people are understandably fleeing this conflict, other countries may struggle to cope as the cost-of-living crisis and urgent efforts to bolster national security infrastructure may squeeze available public funds.

Financial flows are crucial to the functioning of global economies, whether for inward investment or insurance and – as Russian citizens may be about to discover – restricting the global flow of money has a serious impact on households. Beyond Russia, the outflow of money from major financial centres such as London to meet insurance claims or to enable infrastructure reinvestment post-conflict may also have severe knock-on economic impacts.

The impact on governance and health

The global spikes in energy and food prices resulting from these supply chain disruptions will see many countries struggle with rising food and energy insecurity as well as increased inequality. Taken together these conditions create many issues beyond immigration pressures and the associated politics, including increased inequality and civil unrest.

This potentially destabilizes governments which has consequences for the stability of an entire region such as interrupted supply chains, the need to deploy peacekeeping forces, or significant flows of aid – all with global consequences far beyond the countries in question.

Populations may suffer mental health impacts arising from the Ukraine invasion, whether from the trauma of being forced to leave home to escape conflict, anxiety for the wellbeing and safety of families and friends caught up in it, or a more general anxiety arising from the perception of living in an unstable world.

Turkey Is on the Road to a Severe Economic Crisis Expert comment sysadmin 12 July 2018

The deteriorating state of the economy is President Erdoğan’s Achilles’ heel and the biggest threat to his currently unrivalled leadership.

Fifteen days after Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appointed a new government under radically enhanced executive powers granted by the constitution. He chose 16 loyalists and partisan figures to ensure that he remains front and centre in decision-making and policy formation.

Most notably, Erdoğan sacrificed the former deputy prime minister and ex-Merrill Lynch chief economist Mehmet Şimşek in favour of his inexperienced son-in-law Berat Albayrak as finance and treasury minister to manage the fragile economy. Whether he has the competence to placate jittery financial markets and foreign investors is debatable.

Erdoğan will prioritize short-term growth at all costs to the detriment of macroeconomic and financial stability. That entails foregoing interest rate hikes needed to contain runaway double-digit inflation and to support a plummeting lira that depreciated nearly 20 per cent this year. It also means loosening the purse strings, flooding the markets with cheap credit and sponsoring rampant construction and mega-infrastructure projects.

True to his promise, he has appropriated to himself, by presidential decree, the right to hire the central bank governor, deputies and monetary policy committee members for a four-year term. This completes the politicization of the once-respected and independent central bank and is in line with his unorthodox monetary views that higher interest rates equates with higher inflation.

Erdoğan associates progress with gleaming high-rise buildings, gargantuan infrastructure show-pieces and elevated growth rates. He is spiking the fuel to boost the speed of the sputtering mid-sized Audi-style Turkish economy to achieve superior Ferrari growth rates. As any mechanic knows, these tactics are unsustainable in the long term. Eventually, the engine will burn out.

He does not seem to appreciate that Turkey’s growth model requires an overhaul to join the league of rich economies. It is too reliant on consumer spending and government-sponsored infrastructure and construction projects funded by speculative financial flows rather than on sustained private investment and exports.

Net result: the corporate sector’s foreign-exchange liabilities have climbed to a record $328 billion as of the end of 2017. When netted against foreign-exchange assets, it is still a worrying $214 billion. Its US dollar and euro debt pile has more than doubled since 2008, 80 per cent of which is held by domestic banks. Given these acute balance-of-payments conditions, it is not farfetched that Turkey may impose capital controls in the short-to-medium term to restrict the outflow of foreign assets. At $50 billion, the current account deficit – defined as the sum of the trade balance and financial flows – is not even covered by the central bank’s net international reserves at nearly $45 billion.

Unsurprisingly, some major Turkish companies are negotiating with their bondholders to restructure their sizeable foreign loan obligations as lira devaluation increases the financial burden. Should a significant number of Turkish corporates default on their foreign obligations, this would reverberate across the Turkish economy, cause mass consumer panic, shake the confidence of international financial markets and potentially lead to a crisis within the Turkish financial system and to a deep and prolonged economic recession.

Revealingly, Erdoğan’s nationalist allies, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), refused to join his government. Perhaps Devlet Bahçeli, the MHP leader, learned the lessons of the 2001 financial crisis as a member of a three-party government. So he is opting to project influence from the outside, rather than risk being tainted with responsibility for an economic downturn.

Turkey’s president is doubling down on his singular approach to governance irrespective of the fallout. Notwithstanding his current political dominance, the deteriorating state of the economy is his Achilles’ heel and the biggest threat to his currently unrivalled leadership.

Amid a mounting mental health crisis among farmers, experts are working to make help more accessible

State leadership is on the ballot in dozens of states as they grapple with the pandemic's impact on schools, the economy, and their relationship to federal officials.

Social distancing is forcing school business to be conducted virtually, putting school boards in the difficult spot of making crucial decisions on spending and other issues without the same level of public input.

A major operation to distribute seeds and tools has been launched in the Central African Republic to support [...]

FAO’s responses to the crisis in Ukraine and its impacts on global food security: data analyses, policy recommendations, and actions on the ground.

Read the series on how FAO [...]

Read the series on how FAO increased efficiency, effectiveness and transparency to better support its Members in the transformation of agrifood systems.

Marc Edwards and Leeanne Walters | Smithsonian Magazine’s 2016 American Ingenuity Award Winners for Social Progress The duo joined forces to protect tens of thousands of people during the disastrous water crisis in Flint, Michigan. Walters, a Flint resident, grew suspicious when her tap water changed color and her family suffered odd maladies. Officials insisted that the problems were limited to her household, but she refused to accept that answer and sought out Edwards, a Virginia Tech civil engineering professor and a veteran of municipal water wars. Combining political action and scientific credibility, the testing initiative undertaken by Walters and Edwards showed that the city’s water supply was contaminated with toxic chemicals—an explosive finding that finally forced state and local officials to address the dangers. Read more about their work: http://smithmag.co/D4dIHy | #IngenuityAwards And more about the American Ingenuity Awards: http://smithmag.co/77xPqy

Tensions intensified between Cuba and the United States in October 1962 as they appear destined to plunge the planet in global war

What did analysts find in the recon photographs from the Cuban Missile Crisis? http://j.mp/RwFMbj Former CIA analyst Dino Brugioni was one of the first to spot missiles in Cuba in October 1962.

With P.E.I's only full-time blood oncologist leaving at the end of November, Health P.E.I. was planning to transfer his patients to Dr. Philip Champion. Now Champion says he intends to retire in the spring.

'American Graduate Day 2014' is a hodgepodge of entertainment, live interviews, and filmed segments about ways to raise high school graduation rates.

The miner says Transnet knows full well where its own inefficiencies lie and it needs to start addressing these.

The ANC is fully and entirely responsible for the crisis of electricity in South Africa for the past 17 years, and electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa knows it, says Sikonathi Mantshantsha.

Very carefully, experts say, while understanding that federal laws governing special education were not written with online education in mind.

Sixty posts—including commentaries, videos and infographics—are listed, with practical advice for teachers dealing with remote teaching now and in the future.

WILMINGTON – Despite COVID-19, Family Crisis Therapists with the Delaware Children’s Department have continued to engage families with targeted early intervention programming to further social and development skills this summer. The K-5 Family Crisis Therapists (FCTs), through the Division of Prevention and Behavioral Health Services, work in elementary schools across our state helping children and […]

The article will provide strategies for effectively leveraging these tools to your advantage

Attorney General Kathy Jennings announced today a $150 million multistate settlement in principle with opioid manufacturer Hikma Pharmaceuticals (Hikma) for its role in fueling the opioid crisis. Hikma produces a range of generic opioid products and sells hundreds of millions of opioid doses every year. The attorneys general allege that from 2006 to 2021, Hikma […]

Delaware Attorney General Kathy Jennings today announced a multistate settlement in principle with opioid manufacturer Amneal Pharmaceuticals (Amneal) for its role in fueling the nationwide epidemic of opioid addictions and overdoses. Amneal produces several generic opioid products and was one of the largest manufacturers of opioids from 2006 to 2019, selling nearly nine billion pills. […]

Delaware Attorney General Kathy Jennings, alongside a bipartisan coalition of thirty state attorneys general, announced today the completion of the $1.37 billion settlement agreement with Kroger, addressing the grocery chain’s role in the opioid crisis. Delaware will receive over $2.7 million for opioid abatement, all of which will be overseen by the Prescription Opioids Settlement Distribution Commission. Payments are […]

[Daily Maverick] Office of the Chief Justice reveals Constitutional Court has been unable to sit because of unreliable water supply. This article is free to read.Sign up for free or sign in to continue reading.Unlike our competitors, we don't force you to pay to read the news but we do need your email address to make your experience better.Create your free account or sign in FAQ | Contact Us Nearly there! Create a password to finish signing up with us: You want to receive First Thing, our flagship daily newsletter. Opt

Wavteq's Henry Loewendahl discusses which sectors retain potential for foreign investment amid the current global crisis 

In Somalia’s complex political landscape, the tenure of Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre presents a compelling…

The post The Paradox of Power: Analyzing PM Hamse Abdi Barre’s Leadership Crisis in Somalia appeared first on Horseed Media.

We are currently seeing the worst refugee crisis since World War II, and developed countries are not doing nearly enough to help those in need.

More than 110,000 civilians are dead. More than 2 million are refugees. The United States, France and Turkey are moving closer to military intervention.

Israeli health experts reveal that 1 in 10 youth struggle with eating disorders, highlighting a need for urgent action.

Americans live under the assumption that water is cheap, pure, and plentiful. But how true is that?

[Radio Dalsan] Mogadishu -- The Federal Government of Somalia has dispatched four planes of humanitarian aid to Baidoa, the capital of the Southwest State, in response to escalating concerns over a severe drought expected to hit the region.

Some of the creeping impacts of this triple crisis are possibly the most debilitating: Africa is the most severely impacted region by desertification and land degradation, with approximately 45% of its land area affected. In the Horn of Africa and the Sahel alone, it imposes food shortages on more than 23 million people. Just last […]

Although classified as a compact tropical cyclone and considered one of the smallest in the North Atlantic, Hurricane Oscar has caused considerable damage in eastern Cuba since it made landfall on October 20, 2024. Cuban authorities have confirmed that the death toll has risen to seven, in additional to the damage in infrastructure. Communications and […]

Chad is currently in the midst of a dire humanitarian crisis due to persisting armed conflict, mass displacement, widespread hunger, natural disasters, and an overall lack of essential services. Due to security challenges from the Boko Haram militant group, millions of Chadians have faced decreased mobility as well as human rights violations including imprisonment, beatings, […]

“Farming is in my blood, and I can’t imagine doing anything else,” said Mahim Mazumder, a farmer from Assam. “Even though the past three to five years have seen drastic changes—with temperatures rising so much that even sitting under a tree no longer offers relief—I will keep farming, even if it only yields a small […]

Scientists warn of vastly higher impacts on billions of people’s livelihood and cost to the global economy by the accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions, aka the cryosphere. Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists released an annual report on the status of the world’s ice stores on Tuesday (November 12) at the UN […]

BERLIN: Germany is headed for snap elections on February 23, the main parties agreed on Tuesday, aiming to form a stable government after Chan­cellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed last week.

The country’s two biggest parties agreed on the early timetable, which will see centre-left leader Scholz seek a vote of confidence on December 16, said the parliamentary leader of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), Rolf Muetzenich.

This would pave the way for the February vote in a compromise hammered out with the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies CSU.

The agreement seeks to quickly restore political stability at a time when Europe’s biggest economy is set to shrink for a second year in a row and amid heightened geopolitical volatility, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

As per agreement between two biggest parties, Chancellor Scholz will seek trust vote on Dec 16

The election date would mean Germany will be ruled by a lame-duck chancellor and stuck in the middle of its campaign period when Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on January 20.

Embattled Scholz, who wants to run again despite poor poll ratings, initially suggested an election in late March but came under heavy pressure from all other parties to speed up the process.

The CDU is riding high in the polls and its leader Friedrich Merz had pushed strongly for an election as early as possible — a demand backed by two thirds of voters, according to a recent survey.

“We don’t have unlimited time to elect a new government in Germany, regardless of who leads it… because the world around us is not waiting,” Merz said on Tuesday.

“It’s not as if everyone is holding their breath and watching Germany in fascination, as decisions are taken in Europe, Asia and the United States.

“The world expects a Germany that is capable of taking action.”

Winter election campaign

The February 23 date would force politicians to run their campaigns in the dark and cold of winter, when voters will be less enthusiastic to flock to outdoor events than during the usual summer campaign seasons.

Scholz is expected to lose the confidence vote in the lower house of parliament, after which President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag.

Elections have to be held within 60 days of the dissolution.

Scholz took office in late 2021, taking over from the CDU’s Angela Merkel, in a three-way coalition with the left-leaning Greens and the liberal and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

But mounting differences over economic and fiscal policy came to a head last week when Scholz fired the rebellious FDP finance minister Christian Linder, prompting the small party to leave the government.

Since then, Scholz’s SPD and the Greens have carried on in a minority government that would need opposition support to pass any laws — something the CDU/CSU had rejected in the absence of clarity on an election date.

Future scenarios

Scholz’s coalition marked the first time a tripartite alliance has ruled at the federal level, and it may not be the last, given Germany’s increasingly fragmented political party landscape.

Fears about immigration have driven the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. It is now polling at close to 20 per cent, but other parties have pledged to shun it as a coalition partner.

The latest polls put the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance firmly in the lead at 32pc.

To win a majority, however, the conservatives would likely need the future backing of the SPD, which is currently polling at 15.5pc, in a so-called grand coalition, plus a third party.

Contenders for that spot, according to current polling, would be either the FDP, with five percent support, or possibly the Greens, who are polling at 11pc.

Lindner, who has said he wants to be finance minister again, on Tuesday welcomed the date for new elections, saying:“Happily we now have clarity on this question.” He earlier said that he thought Merz “will almost certainly be the next chancellor of Ger­many. The only question is: Who will chancellor Merz govern with?”

Published in Dawn, November 13th, 2024

Extreme weather and a growing population is driving a food security crisis. What can we do to break the vicious cycle of carbon emissions, climate change and soaring food costs – or is it already too late?