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M 5.4 PUERTO RICO REGION, Machuelo+Arriba (Puerto+Rico)


Shelves went tumbling down at Walmart.




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mb 4.8 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION

Magnitude  mb 4.8
Region  MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
Date time  2020-05-09 13:18:38.8 UTC
Location  54.65 S ; 158.71 E
Depth  10 km




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Butler 2010 rewind: Mack attack and 3s allowed Dawgs to overtake UTEP

Shelvin Mack made six of his seven 3s in the second half and scored 25 points, leading the No. 5 seeded Bulldogs over No. 12 Texas-El Paso

      




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Fleetwood Mac adds Indianapolis date

Rock band Fleetwood Mac will perform this fall at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

       




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In memory of Matt Tully, Indiana delegation introduces stomach cancer awareness resolution

The Indiana congressional delegation introduced a House resolution expressing support for the goals and ideas of ''Stomach Cancer Awareness Month."

       




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Off the Beaten Path: Cape Maclear

Cape Maclear (aka Chembe) is a small fishing village on Lake Nyasa (Lake Malawi) in Malawi. It has one dirt road leading into (and straight out of) town. Along this road, there are a few hostels, some dive shops, a handful of vendors selling curios and fruit and a few bars. The pace of life here is . . . very . . . slow.




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Why Colts' RBs Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack might bring out the best of Philip Rivers

When the Chargers legend isn't carrying a team on his back, Rivers has been far more efficient.

       




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'Atina sığınmacılara çok kötü davranıyor'

Yunanistan güvenlik güçlerinin, gözaltına aldıkları sığınmacıları Türkiye sınırına doğru sürdükleri ve Meriç nehrinden Türkiye'ye geçmeye zorladıkları iddia edildi.




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Kesha and Macklemore rock Ruoff Home Mortgage Music Center

       




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5 ways Kesha and Macklemore crafted a summer blockbuster at Ruoff

A show billed as "The Adventures of Kesha and Macklemore" resembles a summer popcorn movie at Ruoff Home Mortgage Music Center.

       




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Fleetwood Mac adds Indianapolis date

Rock band Fleetwood Mac will perform this fall at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

       




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New Mass Ave. restaurants serve macarons, mac and cheese, brisket nachos, farm-to-table

40 restaurants in all fill the small, Downtown Indianapolis neighborhood

      




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Fleetwood Mac adds Indianapolis date

Rock band Fleetwood Mac will perform this fall at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

       




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Regions and territories: Macau

An overview of Macau, including key facts, political leaders and notes on the media




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Timeline: Macedonia

A chronology of key events




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Country profile: Macedonia

Key facts, figures and dates




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How MacArthur ‘genius’ Lynda Barry is exploring brain creativity with true artists: Preschoolers

The author of the new book “Making Comics” has a plan for her grant windfall: the study of the “split” in the human brain between writing and drawing.




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Colts RB Marlon Mack is your top waiver wire priority for Week 8

Mack carried the ball 19 times for 126 yards and a touchdown and added two catches for 33 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Bills.




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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are going to get PAID. Machado should get paid more.

Harper has had one spectacular season — earning him a unanimous MVP award in 2015 — surrounded by some very good but not great years. Machado, on the other hand, projects more favorably and doesn't carry a significant liability.




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‘Real Housewives of Potomac’ star Ashley Darby welcomes a son

The reality TV star wrote that she and her husband, real estate developer Michael Darby, are "savoring every moment."




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Beta 3 of iOS 13.5, iPadOS 13.5, MacOS Catalina 10.15.5 Released for Testing

Apple has released the third beta versions of iOS 13.5, iPadOS 13.5, and MacOS Catalina 10.15.5. Separately, watchOS 6.2.5 beta 3 and tvOS 13.4.5 beta 3 are also available for testing. The third beta versions of iOS 13.5 and iPadOS 13.5 are actually reversioned from iOS 13.4.5 and iPadOS 13.4.5, so if you were testing ... Read More




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How to Setup & Use iCloud Photos on Mac

Want to use iCloud Photos on Mac? In its simplest form iCloud Photos is a sync service that makes sure your iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Apple TV, and Mac all have every photo you’ve taken, all ready at a moment’s notice. That means you can access the photos from any other device with the feature ... Read More




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How to Switch AirPods Between Devices (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch)

How would you like to switch AirPods between iPhone, iPad, and Mac? Or what if you’d like to switch AirPods from iPhone to Apple Watch or even Apple TV? If you have a pair of AirPods and multiple Apple devices, you can easily switch AirPods and AirPods Pro between any of your other Apple products, ... Read More




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How to Use Tile Window Multitasking in MacOS Catalina

MacOS Catalina introduced a handy way to tile windows for multitasking, improving upon the split screen multitasking features that were available in previous MacOS releases. These new simple tiling window multitasking options are available from any window, and now you can easily choose to tile a window to the left or right side of the ... Read More




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AI and Machine Learning for Coders

If you’re looking to make a career move from programmer to AI specialist, this is the ideal place to start. Based on Laurence Moroney's extremely successful AI courses, this introductory book provides a hands-on, code-first approach to help you build confidence while you learn key topics.You’ll understand how to implement the most common scenarios in machine learning, such as computer vision, natural language processing (NLP), and sequence modeling for web, mobile, cloud, and embedded runtimes.




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Kubeflow for Machine Learning

If you’re training a machine learning model but aren’t sure how to put it into production, this book will get you there. Kubeflow provides a collection of cloud native tools for different stages of a model’s lifecycle, from data exploration, feature preparation, and model training to model serving. This guide helps data scientists build production-grade machine learning implementations with Kubeflow and shows data engineers how to make models scalable and reliable.




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Getting Snowflake (the open source graphical SSH/SFTP client) to run on macOS

I don't usually write similar blog posts, but I've been really enjoying Snowflake recently. What's Snowflake you ask? Well, it's a new open source graphical SSH/SFTP client which makes working with remote servers a breeze. It works like Panic's Coda when it comes to managing content on remote servers, e.g. browse files and have a terminal open at the same time. But most importantly, it's cross-platform. And I'd like to share with everyone how to easily get it to run on macOS.

 

At the time, Snowflake's developer has only released binaries for Windows and Debian/Ubuntu with a macOS version planned for the future.

However, since the app is based on Java, the developer also provides Snowflake as a .jar file which we can run anywhere, including macOS.

So here are the steps to get Snowflake to work on your Mac:

 

Step 1

Uninstall that outdated Java version on your Mac. Ironically the best guide is on Java.com, so follow it to the letter: https://www.java.com/en/download/help/mac_uninstall_java.xml

 

Step 2

If you currently go to Java.com, the available release for macOS is pretty outdated. And apparently it relates to recent changes in Java's licensing by Oracle.

So how do you get the most recent Java release for macOS? Well, you can either signup for an account at Oracle.com (the looooong, hard way) or just grab a ready-made binary for macOS, provided by AdoptOpenJDK (the easy way). AdoptOpenJDK is a new community effort (backed by the likes of Red Hat/IBM, Amazon, Microsoft to name a few) to create ready-to-install & cross-platform binaries from OpenJDK, the open source implementation of the Java platform.

You can download the most recent runtime for Java from AdoptOpenJDK (version 13 at the time of writing) here: https://adoptopenjdk.net/?variant=openjdk13&jvmVariant=hotspot (it's a .pkg file to install)

 

Step 3

After you install the related .pkg file, it's time to download Snowflake. Head over to https://github.com/subhra74/snowflake/releases and grab the .jar file from the latest release available (v1.0.4 at the time of writing - https://github.com/subhra74/snowflake/releases/download/v1.0.4/snowflake.jar).

Now we'll make a shortcut to easily launch Snowflake.

Create a folder called "Applications" (if it doesn't already exist) in your home directory and place the snowflake.jar file in there.

Then open up your terminal and do:

chmod +x ~/Applications/snowflake.jar
ln -s ~/Applications/snowflake.jar /Applications/Snowflake.app

That's it.

You'll now find "Snowflake" in your Mac's apps and you can easily launch the app from there, or just drag and drop its icon to your Mac's dock.

(If you get a security warning when you open the app the first time, it's because the app is not signed by Apple. Just go to Preferences and then "Security & Privacy" and you should see the option to allow the app to launch always.)

 




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AT#113 - Theme Cruise to Panama (Shakespeare at Sea / MacMania)

Theme Cruise to Panama (Shakespeare at Sea / MacMania)




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AT#387 - Travel to Macedonia

Hear about travel to Macedonia as the Amateur Traveler talks to Kelsey of CineTraveler.com about her recent trip to this country in the Balkans. Macedonia is just north of Greece and probably best known as the home for Alexander the Great but Kelsey found much more to recommend in this much too overlooked country. In a week they were able to see much of the country.




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AT#484 - Travel to Mackinac Island (and Michigan's Upper Peninsula)

Hear about travel to Michigan's Upper Peninsula (the UP)  as the Amateur Traveler talks to Jennifer Schuitema from Grand Rapids Michigan about travel to the northern remote part of the Great Lake State.

 




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Soap promises to make you smell like "Naval Supremacy"

Ironic toxic masculinity is in fashion! The Duke Cannon Naval Supremacy Big Brick of Bar Soap for Men [Amazon] promises that those thusly-soaped will smell of "naval supremacy", "productivity" or other humorously-abstract scents. (More traditionally "manly" odors such as tobacco, leather, burned vegetation, etc. are also available).

The veil of humor is threadbare -- "get clean and smell good without using feminine shower gels and accessories" -- but I'll admit that I do bathe in warm turpentine and it really helps.

UPDATE: Here's a balding treatment called "Lethal Uprising", spotted by Greg Sideyr.

Looking forward to Internecine Violence Toothpaste, Shambolic Venezeulan Coup Ice Cream, and Silently Endure Prison Abuse Hemmorhoid Cream with Aloe Vera. Read the rest




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Article: Marketing in China: Can Machine Learning Solve the ROI Problem?

William Bao Bean, managing director of Chinaccelerator, explains how investments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping marketers improve user targeting and return on investment.




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Hike Machu Picchu: Routes to Get There and Hikes to Enjoy on Site

So you've decided to hike Machu Picchu? Well great! There's no doubt that you're in for the experience of a lifetime. However, the truth of the matter is that now you've got some additional decisions to make. You see, there's more than one route to arrive to the world-famous Inca site, and even once you've arrived there are a few choices to make as well.

But don't fret! If you're looking to hike Machu Picchu, we've got the information you need to start planning your trip.

Hike Machu Picchu: Arriving to the Site

1. Classic Inca Trail

The Classic Inca Trail is a four-day trek stretching some 42 kilometers along an ancient road built by the Incas themselves. This is undoubtedly the most famous route to Machu Picchu, and it's the one way that offers the opportunity to enter the city through its storied Sun Gate. Frankly, we've got tons of information on the Inca Trail on other pages of our site, so we won't waste too much space being redundant here. Check out these pages for more information on the trail's itinerary as well as for access to an Inca Trail map.

2. One-Day Inca Trail

Whether you're crunched for time or simply don't feel physically up to four full days of trekking, don't fret--a small taste of the world-famous Inca Trail is still available to you! A number of tour companies offer an abridged version of the trek, either one full day of hiking or a shortened day followed by a night of camping and a dawn arrival at Machu Picchu. Besides the Inca Trail's famed destination, the one-day version of the trek also takes you past Wiñay Wayna, another favorite ruins along the trail. The bad news here is that you'll still need to reserve one of only a few hundred daily Inca Trail passes, meaning that, just like the full Inca Trail, you'll need to book this trek months in advance.

3. Lares Trail

Just north of the world-famous Sacred Valley sits the comparatively lesser-known Lares Valley, and whereas the former can be swarmed with tourists especially during the high season, life in the Lares Valley continues humming along relatively unchanged. So whether you're looking for a simpler, more culturally-immersive experience or if you just didn't book an Inca Trail pass in time, the Lares Trail is an excellent option! Lucky for you, we've already gathered plenty of information on the Lares Trail including the trek's daily itinerary and a side-by-side comparison of the Lares and Inca Trails if you're struggling to decide how to hike Machu Picchu.

4. Vilcabamba Traverse Route

Warning--this option is neither for the faint of heart nor the out of shape! The Vilcabamba Traverse Route is one of the newest on the Peru trekking circuit, clocking in at nearly 100 kilometers over the course of a week of trekking. Though very difficult, the route is especially rewarding--think a variety of diverse biomes and the ruins of Choquequirao, often compared to Machu Picchu although less than 40% of the site has been excavated (pictured above). Though visited by only 5,000 or so brave trekkers last year, be warned--the local government is pushing a plan to build a cable car to the site! If you want to see the ruins in their current, undisturbed state, it would be best to go sooner than later.

Hike Machu Picchu: Once You're There

5. Huayna Picchu

Just because you've finally arrived at Machu Picchu doesn't mean your hiking experience has to end! The famous mountain soaring in the background of most iconic Machu Picchu photos is possible to hike, and the experience is certainly recommended. The views from the top are great, and on the way down you can even take a back route to the storied Temple of the Moon. For more information on Huayna Picchu, you can check out this past post on our site.

So that's it for today! If you're planning to hike Machu Picchu and have any questions you'd like to ask us, feel free to reach out in the comments section below. And, if you've already done one of these hikes, feel free to share your experience as well. We appreciate all of your comments!




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Machu Picchu

Machu Picchu, Peru

Although it's one of the most well-known archaeological wonders of the world, Machu Picchu still holds plenty of secrets and is on our shortlist of must-see destinations on a Peru trip.

Add picture with a caption showing actual clients with names linking to review.

Machu Picchu is an enigma, some would say a paradox because it is known as both the best known yet least known about of the Inca sites. Since its discovery on July 24, 1911, by North American Hiram Bingham, Machu Picchu has been considered one of the world's greatest architectural and archaeological monuments, due to its extraordinary magnificence and harmonious structure. Machu Picchu is definitely one of the most fascinating sites in Peru.

At 2,400 meters above sea level, in the province of Urubamba, department of Cusco, Machu Picchu surprises us because of the way its stone constructions are spread over a narrow and uneven mountain top, bordering a sheer 400 meter cliff side of the Urubamba River canyon.

Why and how was Machu Picchu built?

Machu Picchu is a citadel shrouded in mystery, and to this day archaeologists have not definitively uncovered the purpose of this city of stone. The site covers an area of about one square mile, and stands in a region that the Incas considered to be magical, due to the meeting of the Andes mountains with the mighty Amazon river. When 135 bodies were discovered while exploring the site, 109 of which were female, some believed that Machu Picchu could have been a monastery where acllas (young girls) were trained to serve the Inca and the Willac Uno (High Priest). Others said it may simply have been an advance settlement for further expansions planned by the Incas. Perhaps the mystery may never be fully explained.

The surprising perfection and beauty of Machu Picchu's walls, built by joining stone to stone without using any cement or adhesive whatsoever, has led to many theories developing around how the city was constructed as well. It is said that a bird by the name of Kak'aqllu knew the formula for softening rock but by command, perhaps by the ancient Inca gods, had its tongue torn out. Others say there was a magic plant that could dissolve and compress stone. Nonetheless, mysteries and myths aside, the obvious wisdom and skill of the city's ancient builders -- evidenced by Machu Picchu's many squares, aqueducts, watchtowers, observatories and its sun clock -- is quite clear.

Many people may be drawn to Peru by Machu Picchu, yet it is considered by many of our guests, to be just one of many of the ruins featuring on the "highlights reel"of their trip. See reviews to read more

How to get to Machu Picchu - One day or multi day trails

You can take a one day trip to Peru from Cuzco or Lima, and walk up to this citadel in the clouds high in the Andes, or you can take some time to get acclimatised and trek via several trails that lead to Machu Picchu, most taking around 4 to 5 days to complete. Alot of people begin their Peru trip with the intent of visiting Machu Picchu, but don't know how much more there is to see and do in and around Machu Picchu.

After all, if you are going to Peru to experience a South American trip of a lifetime, why not learn about all the activities and other ruins there are to discover.

Popular activities on our Peru trips (including Machu Picchu):

  1. Hiking the Lares or Classic Inca Trail
  2. Exploring Machu Picchu - facts about Machu Picchu
  3. Hiking in the Amazon jungle
  4. Sea kayaking on Lake Titicaca
  5. Staying with a local family on Amantani Island
  6. Hiking Sacsayhuamán fortress
  7. Hiking and cycle in the Sacred Valley of the Incas
  8. Exploring Cuzco
  9. Cycling through Andean villages and La Raya Pass
  10. Hiking Amantani and Taquile Islands

[link to above pages Will]

You may be surprised at the number of activities you can do in Peru, in fact it's a surprise to alot of people that it is possible to enjoy these "non Machu Picchu focused" activities at all. Our philosophy is a little different to many tour companies, we believe that if you are going to travel all the way to a new country to experience a whole new culture, why not experience as many perspectives, local cultures and ruins as you can while you are there.

Obviously the most popular trail chosen by visitors wanting to visit Machu Picchu is the Inca Trail. Some people prefer the Lares trail because it offers a much more immersive experience in Peruvian village culture. If you wants to experience some of the traditions and village life the early Inca's enjoyed, you can stay with their descendants in one of the many villages along the Lares Trail.

If you want to hike the traditional route,  take a sneak peak below at some of what the Inca Trail has to offer.

Hike to Machu Picchu on the ancient Inca Trail

The Inca Trail between the Sacred Valley of the Urubamba River and the mysterious abandoned citadel of Machu Picchu is one of the world's classic treks. Climbing out of the river valley, crossing rugged mountain passes over 13,000 ft high, the trail winds through the Andes, passing numerous significant Inca ruins en route before descending through the Sun Gate to the silent stone city of Machu Picchu. To hike the Inca Trail is a thrilling experience and a great privilege. You need a permit from the Peruvian government to set foot on it, and there are strict limits on the number of permits issued each year.

But the Inca Trail is much more than a great hike. It is one small portion of an incredible network of such trails crossing high mountain ranges, bleak deserts, and raging Andean rivers, tying the Inca Empire together. At its peak expansion, Tahuantinsuyo (or The Four Corners as the empire was known) extended from what is now southern Colombia in the north, to central Chile in the south, covering a distance of about 5500 km (3400 mi). To rule such a vast domain, the emperor, or Inca, forged a remarkable communications system of approximately 18,600 miles of trails, paved through much of its length, stepped where need be, through tunnels where necessary, and using gossamer suspension bridges built of straw ropes to cross rivers unfordable in the wet season.

The roads served to move the conquering Inca armies, and were generally wide enough for a minimum of two warriors to travel abreast. A system of runners stationed at rest houses known as tambos sped messages along the roadways, much like the Pony Express mail of the old American West. The Inca, at his empire's capital in Cuzco, could receive news from far away Quito as rapidly as a letter crosses between the two cities in today's mail.

As remarkable as this highway system was in the days when it was built, used and maintained, it is an astounding testimony to its construction that so many segments remain serviceable today, after half a millennium of neglect. Clearly the Inca highway system ranks as one of the greatest engineering achievements of pre-industrial man.

The full Inca Trail is approximately 40km long. Spread over 4 days, this amounts to about five hours walking per day, although you can walk at your own pace - you are not forced to walk with your group the whole time. It is not a difficult walk, although there are a couple of high passes, and a steep climb on the second day, so a basic level of fitness is required.

Alternative Routes To Get To Machu Picchu other than the Inca Trail (link to another page how to get to machu picchu)

Lares Trail (link)

Inca Trail (link)

Aventura Fantastica!

“This was our second Active Adventures trip and while we went to Peru mainly to see Machu Picchu, I feel it was only a fraction of the fun we had during our trip. For me, hiking at 14,000+ feet, climbing rocks via ferrata to go zip lining was an awesome experience despite being very prone to altitude illness (we got there a day early and I was fine by the second day) and having a hubby who is very afraid of heights. Machu Picchu was magnificent but I really enjoyed the less crowded Incan and pre-Incan sites we visited more because we had them nearly all to ourselves. Our tour leader Jhayro and another local guide Daniel (who we had for 3 days in Peru) also made our trip extra special being so friendly and fun to be with both while leading us on adventures as well as during meals and on the bus.

The food we had in Peru was excellent and that is coming from someone who is usually viewed as a picky eater with a fussy stomach. My hubby, who is a much more adventurous eater than I, tried alpaca and guinea pig and both were surprisingly good (yes, I tried them too!). After a couple days, we were used to not drinking the tap water or flushing paper down toilets so neither were a big deal. In fact, when we were in Quito, it seemed strange to be able to do so!

For the Galapagos portion of our trip, we were led by Jose since our scheduled guide Pablo couldn't be there due to a family emergency. Jose was very knowledgable about the local geology, flora, fauna and variety of other things and with several in our group being (former) teachers or scientists, we sure did ask a lot of questions. The unique wildlife of the islands was the primary reason I wanted to visit and I loved seeing Galapagos turtles again as I'd not seen them since I was a child back in the 60's (I remember riding on some in a zoo which I know now was so wrong!). It was my first time seeing marine iguanas and blue footed boobies in the wild and I also enjoyed seeing a variety of other creatures that are in other places but we don't see very often, even living in Hawaii which has very similar geology.

Like Hawaii, each of the Galapagos Islands was different and it was interesting to see how they varied. The different forms of transportation we used to get from island to island were also adventures in themselves: 2 hour ride on a speed boat and an hourish ride on a teeny prop plane!

The only thing that was not quite what we expected with this trip was that some of the activities listed on the Galapagos Island itinerary we did not get to do. Nevertheless, the trip was fantastic and being probably my one and only trip to South America, it will always be remembered.”

Shirley Pratt – Hawaii, United States
Iguana, May 2016

READ REVIEWS

 

 

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  • Machu Picchu Inca Trail

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History of Machu Picchu

History of Machu Picchu

Archaeological evidence uncovered around the site suggests that the area was first used for agricultural purposes back in 760 B.C.

The war of Vilcambamba Pachacutec in 1440 established the first settlement at the site. It was called the Tahuantinsuyo Empire which was later followed by the formation of the government of Manco Capac.

It is thought that Machu Picchu was first inhabited by 300-1000 inhabitants, who were of the highest Class or "llactas".

The valleys around these areas were important for their agricultural contribution, however after death of the Emperor Pachacutec, it lost it's importance, with the establishment of new sites like Ollaytantambo and Vilcambamba. The building of these new sites by his successors, in more accessible terrain made Machu Picchu less appealing.

From 1527 to 1532, two brothers Huáscar and Atahualpa fought against each other in a civil war over the Inca Empire. Their father, Inca Huayna Capac had given each brother a section of the empire to manage, one in Huáscar in Cuzco and Atahualpa in Quito. When Huayna Capac and his heir, Ninan Cuyuchi, died somewhere between 1525 and 1527, the two brothers Atahualpa and Huáscar went to war over who should rule.  The population who had come to live in the Machu Picchu area from rural or remote locations left after the war ended to return to where they came from. Later another brother, Manco Inca was sent into exile in Vilcambamba, and Machu Picchu was deserted.

Antonio Raimondi was an Italian geographer and scientist from Milan who visited Machu Picchu in 1851. In 1867 Augusto Berns arrived to mine the site.

Hiram Bingham re-discovered the ruins in 1911. He documented and publicised his "discovery".

Hiram Bingham



  • Machu Picchu Inca Trail

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The New Macroeconomics of Populism

17 June 2019

David Lubin

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme
The nationalist urge to keep the world off your back extends to foreign finance.

2019-06-17-AMLO.jpg

Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador throws out the first pitch at a baseball game in March. Photo: Getty Images.

It is nearly 30 years since Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards published a seminal book, The Macroeconomics of Populism. Their conclusion back then was that the economic policies of populist leaders were quintessentially irresponsible. These governments, blinded by an aim to address perceived social injustices, specialised in profligacy, unbothered by budget constraints or whether they might run out of foreign exchange.

Because of this disregard for basic economic logic, their policy experiments inevitably ended badly, with some combination of inflation, capital flight, recession and default. Salvador Allende’s Chile in the 1970s, or Alan García’s Peru in the 1980s, capture this story perfectly.

These days, the macroeconomics of populism looks different. Of course there are populist leaders out there whose policies follow, more or less, the playbook of the 1970s and 1980s. Donald Trump may prove to be one of those, with a late-cycle fiscal expansion that seemed to have no basis in economic reasoning; Recep Tayyip Erdogan, by some accounts, may be another.

But a much more interesting phenomenon is the apparent surge in populist leaders whose economic policies are remarkably disciplined.

Take Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. When it comes to fiscal policy, it is odd indeed that this fiery critic of neoliberalism seems fully committed to austerity. His budget for 2019 targets a surplus before interest payments of 1 per cent of GDP, and on current plans he intends to increase that surplus next year to 1.3 per cent of GDP. He has upheld the autonomy of the central bank and, so far at least, his overall macroeconomic framework is anything but revolutionary.

Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban offers another example of conservative populism. Under his watch, budget deficits have been considerably lower than they had been previously, helping to push the stock of public debt down from 74 per cent of GDP in 2010, the year Orban took over, to 68 per cent last year.

This emphasis on the virtues of fiscal prudence is also visible in Poland, where Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s PiS has managed public finances with sufficient discipline in the past few years to push the debt/GDP ratio below 50 per cent last year, the first time this has happened since 2009.

The obvious question is: what has changed in the decades since Dornbusch and Edwards went into print?

One answer is that today’s populists tend to strive for national self-reliance, which encourages them to avoid building up any dependence on foreign capital. And since that goal is achieved by keeping a tight rein on macro policy, fiscal indiscipline is avoided in order to limit vulnerability to foreign influences.

Perhaps this is because the 'them', or the perceived enemy, for many of today’s populists tends to be outside the country rather than inside. Broadly speaking, it is the forces of globalisation — and global capital in particular — that are the problem for these leaders, and self-reliance is the only way to keep those forces at arm’s length. This helps to explain why, for example, Orban has been so keen to repay debt to Hungary’s external creditors. He has relied instead on selling bonds to Hungarian households to finance his deficits, even though the interest rates on those bonds are much higher than he would pay to foreign creditors. It also helps explain why the PiS in Poland has presided over a decline in foreign holdings of its domestic bonds. Foreign investors owned 40 per cent of Poland’s domestic government debt back in 2015, but only 26 per cent now.

In other words, among many of today’s populists there is a blurring of the distinction between populism and nationalism. And the nationalistic urge to keep the rest of the world off your back seems to dominate the populist urge to spend money. The perfect example of that instinct is Vladimir Putin: not necessarily a populist, but his administration has been emphatic about the need to keep public spending low and to build solid financial buffers. National self-reliance is an economic obsession for the Russian government, and provides a model for other countries who wish to insulate themselves from international finance.

One of the reasons why the macroeconomics of populism have changed in this way is the historical legacy of economic disaster. If you are a populist leader in a country where financial crisis is part of living memory — as it is in Mexico, Hungary and Russia, say — you might do well to err on the side of conservatism for fear of repeating the mistakes of your predecessors.

But another reason why populism looks different for countries like Poland, Hungary, Mexico and Russia has to do with mere luck. Hungary and Poland, in particular, enjoy the luck of geography: having been absorbed into the EU, they have received financial transfers from Brussels averaging some 3-4 per cent of GDP in the past few years, so that populism in these countries has been solidly underpinned by the terms of their EU membership. López Obrador is enjoying the inheritance of his predecessor’s sound macro policy, together with a buoyant US economy and low US interest rates. Russia has had the good fortune of oil exports to rely on.

The thing about luck is that it can run out. So maybe it’s not quite time yet to bury the old macroeconomics of populism. But for the time being, it seems true to say that many of today’s populists have an unexpectedly robust sense of economic discipline.

This article was originally published in the Financial Times.




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As Parliamentary Elections Loom, the Legitimacy of Iran’s Regime Has Been Shaken

5 December 2019

Dr Sanam Vakil

Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme
The latest wave of protests highlights a fracturing social contract in the Islamic Republic.

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Iranian protesters block a road during a demonstration against an increase in gasoline prices in Isfahan on 16 November. Photo: Getty Images.

For four decades, the rule of Iran’s Islamic Republic has rested on the pillars of redistributive social justice, foreign policy independence, Islam and a managed form of electoral legitimacy.  These pillars, each of equal importance, have served as guiding principles bolstering Iran’s domestic and foreign policy decisions.  Amid the latest round of protests to have gripped Iran, it is clear that these pillars are fracturing. 

On 15 November at midnight, the Iranian government, in a move supported by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Head of the Judiciary Ebrahim Raisi, announced a 200 per cent increase in fuel prices – a redistributive measure designed to provide cash transfers to the population.

In immediate reaction, Iranian citizens took to the streets to express their discontent with this policy move alongside mounting economic and political grievances.

What ensued over the subsequent days was an outbreak of protests through 100 Iranian cities, including at universities and bazaars, that was followed by a weeklong internet blackout and a brutal crackdown that has left at least 200 people dead and 7,000 arrested. Initially, public anger focused on the price increases but quickly targeted the political leadership, lack of government accountability, effective governance and corruption.

This wave of protests is the fourth in a two-decade period – 1999, 2009, 2017 and 2019 – for the Islamic Republic and comes at time when the Iranian government is under severe economic strain from Washington’s maximum pressure campaign. It is equally burdened by endemic factional politicking.

These protests are one of many reminders of the shattered social contract between state and society in Iran, which without repair will continue to resurface.

With internet connectivity resumed and news of the regime’s brutality spreading, conservatives and reformists are both trying to distance themselves from this internal crisis and reposition themselves in advance of the 2020 parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections for Iran’s 290-person legislature are expected to be held on 21 February. Amid concerns over public apathy and lower political participation, both reformists and conservatives are trying to develop strategies to maximize gains at their ballot box.

Even before these protests, voter turnout was anticipated to be lower than normal. Participation in the July 2019 Tehran municipality election was at a nadir of 9 per cent.  To prepare for this challenge, Iran’s parliament has lowered the vote threshold for a valid result from 25 to 20 per cent.

Elections in Iran, while by no means completely free and fair due to the vetting of candidates by the Guardian Council, have repeatedly been an important barometer of public support and participation. Electoral participation, which is traditionally higher than in most Western democracies, and compared to the lack of electoral opportunities in the Middle East, is heralded as a sign of public legitimacy. 

Voter participation is generally higher in presidential elections than in legislative ones.

For example, 73% voted in the 2017 presidential elections, 72% in 2013, 80% in the contested 2009 elections, and 59% in 2005 elections that brought Mahmood Ahmadinejad to office. Comparatively, in the 2016 parliamentary elections 62% voted, in 2012, 66%, in 2008, 47%, and in 2004, 51% participated.

Voter turnout in the 2008 parliamentary elections, reflective of public apathy, mounting international tensions over the nuclear programme, and Guardian Council vetting of reformist candidates, could be emblematic of what to expect next year. 

In the run up to the election, conservative groups are trying to capitalize on popular economic frustrations, disappointment with reformists, wider regional security concerns and tensions with the United States to rally voters. 

Reformists associated with the Rouhani government, who also supported the Iran nuclear agreement, have been severely weakened by the US maximum pressure campaign and the return of US sanctions.  They are also blamed for the current economic downturn and remain frustrated by their ability to affect change in a political system that affords more power to unelected figures.

Amidst this stalemate, Rouhani has continued to call for a national referendum to no avail, while reformist groups are debating how to position themselves – some even calling for greater accountability – so as not be tainted by the government crackdown. Leading reformist politicians such as Mohammad Khatami have called on reformists to stay united and avoid boycotting the elections. It remains to be seen how their strategy will develop after the protests.

Should the Guardian Council bar too many reformists from running, calls for a boycott could snowball and even incite new protests. Together with low turnout at the ballot box, the outcome of this election could further damage the regime’s already fragile electoral pillar and weaken its claims to legitimacy.




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Radical new business model for pharmaceutical industry needed to avert antibiotic resistance crisis

7 October 2015

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High-level complex of physiologically active antibiotic substance extracted from blastema at the Arctic Innovation Center (AIC) of Ammosov, North-Eastern Federal University (NEFU) in Yakutsk. Photo: Yuri Smityuk/ITAR-TASS Photo/Corbis.

Revenues for pharmaceutical companies need to be 'delinked' from sales of antibiotics to avoid their over-use and avert a public health crisis, says a new report from the think-tank Chatham House.

Over-use of antibiotics is contributing to the growing resistance of potentially deadly bacteria to existing drugs, threatening a public health crisis in the near future. The report notes that, by 2050, failing to tackle antibiotic resistance could result in 10 million premature deaths per year.                                       

Novel antibiotics to combat resistant pathogens are thus desperately needed, but market incentives are exacerbating the problem. Towards a New Global Business Model for Antibiotics: Delinking Revenues from Sales states that,                                       


'The current business model requires high levels of antibiotic use in order to recover the costs of R&D. But mitigating the spread of resistance demands just the opposite: restrictions on the use of antibiotics.'

                                       

To tackle this catch-22 problem, the Centre on Global Health Security at Chatham House recommends the establishment of a global body to implement a radical new business model for the industry, which would encourage investment and promote global access to - and conservation of - antibiotics.      

The current business model has several perverse effects. As R&D is an inherently risky and costly endeavour, the industry is chronically under-investing in new treatments. Today, few large pharmaceutical companies retain active antibacterial drug discovery programmes. Re-stoking the industry's interest in antibiotics would be one of the primary roles of the new body.   

Secondly, the need to recover sunk cost under the current business model encourages both high prices and over-marketing of successful drugs, making potentially life-saving treatments unaffordable to many in developing countries, while simultaneously encouraging over-use in developed markets and increasing resistance.   

The new global body would address these challenges by ‘delinking’ pharmaceutical revenues from sales of antibiotics. It would do this by directly financing the research and development of new drugs, which it would then acquire at a price based on production costs rather than the recovery of R&D expenses. Acquisition could take the form of procurement contracts with companies, the purchase of full IP rights or other licensing mechanisms.                                       

This would enable it to promote global access to antibiotics while simultaneously restricting over-use. Conservation would be promoted through education, regulation and good clinical practice, with the report recommending that 'proven conservation methods such as antibiotic stewardship programmes… be incentivized and implemented immediately.'

Priorities for R&D financing would be based on a comprehensive assessment of  threats arising from resistance. Antibiotics would qualify for the highest level of financial incentives if they combat resistant pathogens posing a serious threat to human health.                                       

Finance for the new body would come from individual nation states, with the report noting that this could 'begin with a core group of countries with significant research activity and large antibiotic markets, (though) it is envisaged that all high income countries should make an appropriate financial contribution.'                                 

It is not yet clear exactly how much funding would be necessary to combat resistance, but with inaction expected to cost $100 trillion in cumulative economic damage, the report argues that 'an additional global investment of up to $3.5 billion a year (about 10 per cent of the current value of global sales of antibiotics) would be a bargain.'

Editor's notes

Towards a New Global Business Model for Antibiotics: Delinking Revenues from Sales, is a Chatham House report edited by Charles Clift, Unni Gopinathan, Chantal Morel, Kevin Outterson, John-Arne Røttingen and Anthony So.

The report is embargoed until 00.01 GMT Friday 9 October.

For more information, or to request an interview with the editors, contact the press office.

Contacts

Press Office

+44 (0)20 7957 5739




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Review article: The 100 billion dollar brain: central intelligence machinery in the UK and the US

12 March 2015 , Volume 91, Number 2

Richard J. Aldrich





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NF-{kappa}B mediates lipopolysaccharide-induced alternative pre-mRNA splicing of MyD88 in mouse macrophages [Signal Transduction]

Although a robust inflammatory response is needed to combat infection, this response must ultimately be terminated to prevent chronic inflammation. One mechanism that terminates inflammatory signaling is the production of alternative mRNA splice forms in the Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling pathway. Whereas most genes in the TLR pathway encode positive mediators of inflammatory signaling, several, including that encoding the MyD88 signaling adaptor, also produce alternative spliced mRNA isoforms that encode dominant-negative inhibitors of the response. Production of these negatively acting alternatively spliced isoforms is induced by stimulation with the TLR4 agonist lipopolysaccharide (LPS); thus, this alternative pre-mRNA splicing represents a negative feedback loop that terminates TLR signaling and prevents chronic inflammation. In the current study, we investigated the mechanisms regulating the LPS-induced alternative pre-mRNA splicing of the MyD88 transcript in murine macrophages. We found that 1) the induction of the alternatively spliced MyD88 form is due to alternative pre-mRNA splicing and not caused by another RNA regulatory mechanism, 2) MyD88 splicing is regulated by both the MyD88- and TRIF-dependent arms of the TLR signaling pathway, 3) MyD88 splicing is regulated by the NF-κB transcription factor, and 4) NF-κB likely regulates MyD88 alternative pre-mRNA splicing per se rather than regulating splicing indirectly by altering MyD88 transcription. We conclude that alternative splicing of MyD88 may provide a sensitive mechanism that ensures robust termination of inflammation for tissue repair and restoration of normal tissue homeostasis once an infection is controlled.




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Power and diplomacy in the post-liberal cyberspace

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

André Barrinha and Thomas Renard

It is becoming widely accepted that we have transitioned, or are now transitioning, from an international liberal order to a different reality. Whether that reality is different solely in terms of power dynamics, or also in terms of values and institutions, is up for discussion. The growing body of literature on ‘post-liberalism’ is used as an entry-point for this article, which aims to explore how the post-liberal transition applies to cyberspace. We explore how power dynamics are evolving in cyberspace, as well as how established norms, values and institutions are contested. The article then looks at the emergence of cyber diplomacy as a consequence and response to the post-liberal transition. As it will be argued, if cyberspace was a creation of the liberal order, cyber-diplomacy is a post-liberal world practice. What role it plays in shaping a new order or building bridges between different political visions, and what it means for the future of cyberspace, will constitute key points of discussion.




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Adipocyte death defines macrophage localization and function in adipose tissue of obese mice and humans

Saverio Cinti
Nov 1, 2005; 46:2347-2355
Research Articles




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Power and diplomacy in the post-liberal cyberspace

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

André Barrinha and Thomas Renard

It is becoming widely accepted that we have transitioned, or are now transitioning, from an international liberal order to a different reality. Whether that reality is different solely in terms of power dynamics, or also in terms of values and institutions, is up for discussion. The growing body of literature on ‘post-liberalism’ is used as an entry-point for this article, which aims to explore how the post-liberal transition applies to cyberspace. We explore how power dynamics are evolving in cyberspace, as well as how established norms, values and institutions are contested. The article then looks at the emergence of cyber diplomacy as a consequence and response to the post-liberal transition. As it will be argued, if cyberspace was a creation of the liberal order, cyber-diplomacy is a post-liberal world practice. What role it plays in shaping a new order or building bridges between different political visions, and what it means for the future of cyberspace, will constitute key points of discussion.




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Undercurrents: Episode 8 - Ronan Farrow on Diplomacy




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Unelected Power: Finding Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State




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Securing Peace in the 21st Century: The Roles of Diplomacy and Statesmanship




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Une Nouvelle Révolution? Macron and the Gilets Jaunes




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American Diplomacy: Past, Present and Future




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Securing Our Climate Future: Risk, Resilience and Diplomacy