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Hillary Clinton and the Action Bias

On Oct. 10, 2002, Hillary Rodham Clinton stood in the Senate to explain why she was authorizing President Bush to use force against Iraq: "In balancing the risks of action versus inaction, I think New Yorkers who have gone through the fires of hell may be more attuned to the risk of not acting. I...




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Subprime Mortgages and Race: A Bit of Good News May Be Illusory

Subprime mortgages have been linked to a meltdown in housing and questionable Wall Street practices, and they may have been the original domino that set off America's current economic crisis.




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Big Political Donors Just Looking for Favors? Apparently Not.

The Center for Responsive Politics recently estimated that it cost $5.8 billion to finance the 2008 general elections. To most people that is a staggeringly large sum and evidence of the profoundly corrupting role that money plays in politics, but to some very smart political watchers, the better...




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Invertir en el vecindario: Cambios en los patrones de migración entre México y Estados Unidos y oportunidades para una cooperación sostenible

La migración entre México y Estados Unidos ha cambiado dramáticamente en los últimos años, pero las políticas y la retórica política en ambos países no se han actualizado a este contexto a la misma velocidad. Este reporte explora esta nueva realidad migratoria y cómo los dos gobiernos podrían trabajar juntos para abordar los desafíos de políticas públicas que tienen en común.




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Legal Migration for Work and Training: Mobility Options to Europe for Those Not in Need of Protection

As EU Member States struggle to deliver on the European Union's call to expand channels for foreign workers, they should focus more on attracting the middle- and low-skilled third-country nationals needed by the labor market yet for whom few opportunities for admission exist. They also would do well to consider their migration policies in light of labor market, foreign policy, and development objectives, rather than as a means to reduce irregular migration, this report cautions.




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Two- and three-color STORM analysis reveals higher-order assembly of leukotriene synthetic complexes on the nuclear envelope of murine neutrophils [Computational Biology]

Over the last several years it has become clear that higher order assemblies on membranes, exemplified by signalosomes, are a paradigm for the regulation of many membrane signaling processes. We have recently combined two-color direct stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (dSTORM) with the (Clus-DoC) algorithm that combines cluster detection and colocalization analysis to observe the organization of 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO) and 5-lipoxygenase–activating protein (FLAP) into higher order assemblies on the nuclear envelope of mast cells; these assemblies were linked to leukotriene (LT) C4 production. In this study we investigated whether higher order assemblies of 5-LO and FLAP included cytosolic phospholipase A2 (cPLA2) and were linked to LTB4 production in murine neutrophils. Using two- and three-color dSTORM supported by fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy we identified higher order assemblies containing 40 molecules (median) (IQR: 23, 87) of 5-LO, and 53 molecules (62, 156) of FLAP monomer. 98 (18, 154) molecules of cPLA2 were clustered with 5-LO, and 77 (33, 114) molecules of cPLA2 were associated with FLAP. These assemblies were tightly linked to LTB4 formation. The activation-dependent close associations of cPLA2, FLAP, and 5-LO in higher order assemblies on the nuclear envelope support a model in which arachidonic acid is generated by cPLA2 in apposition to FLAP, facilitating its transfer to 5-LO to initiate LT synthesis.




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Specificity and affinity of the N-terminal residues in staphylocoagulase in binding to prothrombin [Computational Biology]

In Staphylococcus aureus–caused endocarditis, the pathogen secretes staphylocoagulase (SC), thereby activating human prothrombin (ProT) and evading immune clearance. A previous structural comparison of the SC(1–325) fragment bound to thrombin and its inactive precursor prethrombin 2 has indicated that SC activates ProT by inserting its N-terminal dipeptide Ile1-Val2 into the ProT Ile16 pocket, forming a salt bridge with ProT's Asp194, thereby stabilizing the active conformation. We hypothesized that these N-terminal SC residues modulate ProT binding and activation. Here, we generated labeled SC(1–246) as a probe for competitively defining the affinities of N-terminal SC(1–246) variants preselected by modeling. Using ProT(R155Q,R271Q,R284Q) (ProTQQQ), a variant refractory to prothrombinase- or thrombin-mediated cleavage, we observed variant affinities between ∼1 and 650 nm and activation potencies ranging from 1.8-fold that of WT SC(1–246) to complete loss of function. Substrate binding to ProTQQQ caused allosteric tightening of the affinity of most SC(1–246) variants, consistent with zymogen activation through occupation of the specificity pocket. Conservative changes at positions 1 and 2 were well-tolerated, with Val1-Val2, Ile1-Ala2, and Leu1-Val2 variants exhibiting ProTQQQ affinity and activation potency comparable with WT SC(1–246). Weaker binding variants typically had reduced activation rates, although at near-saturating ProTQQQ levels, several variants exhibited limiting rates similar to or higher than that of WT SC(1–246). The Ile16 pocket in ProTQQQ appears to favor nonpolar, nonaromatic residues at SC positions 1 and 2. Our results suggest that SC variants other than WT Ile1-Val2-Thr3 might emerge with similar ProT-activating efficiency.




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Open Door for Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migrants in Latin America & Caribbean Closes a Bit amid Scale of Flows, Strains on Public Services

WASHINGTON – Even as governments in Latin America and the Caribbean have taken generous and innovative steps to address forced displacement from Venezuela and more recently Nicaragua, the warm welcome has cooled in places amid the vast scale of the inflows, strains on public services and growing public concern.




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Las puertas abiertas para los migrantes venezolanos y nicaragüenses en América Latina y el Caribe se cierran un poco a medida que aumenta la escala de los flujos y la presión en los servicios públicos

WASHINGTON – A pesar de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe han tomado medidas generosas e innovadoras para lidiar con el desplazamiento forzado desde Venezuela y más recientemente desde Nicaragua, la cálida bienvenida se ha enfriado en algunos lugares a medida que el número de entradas, la presión sobre los servicios públicos y la preocupación del público aumenta.




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MPI Analysis of All State ESSA Accountability Plans Finds Fractured Picture of Education Policy for English Learners & Differing Approaches

WASHINGTON – Four years since the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) was signed into law, all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico have developed accountability plans that include blueprints for serving English Learners (ELs), as well as measuring these students’ progress and being accountable for their outcomes. This marked a significant development, as EL performance was previously not well integrated with factors that determined whether a school was performing well or poorly.




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Understanding Which English Learners Are Counted on School Accountability Measures—and When

WASHINGTON – The federal Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA) requires states to publicly report annual performance and graduation rates for students in a range of areas, breaking out results for subgroups with unique characteristics, including English Learners (ELs). The objective is to help schools identify and close achievement gaps experienced by historically underserved groups of students.




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Muhallabiya (citris pudding)

This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Richelle Hunt on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Hana Assafiri. Hana's new book is called "Moroccan Soup Bar: Recipes of a Spoken Menu."




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Phillippa's Gingerbread Rabbits

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Phillippa Grogan. Phillippa's latest book is "Phillippa's Home Baking".




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Mocha-Cappuccino Caramel Biscuit Cheesecake

This indulgent cheesecake is as light as air, with all the ingredients of an afternoon tea rolled into one - coffee, chocolate and caramel biscuits.




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Bigoli with duck Ragu

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of






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The Colombian Response to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis: A Dialogue with Colombia’s Migration Czar

Felipe Muñoz, Advisor to the President of Colombia for the Colombian-Venezuelan Border, discusses how Colombia is coping with the influx of Venezuelan migrants, plans for future policy decisions surrounding this migration, and developments in regional and international cooperation.




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Welcome Wears Thin for Colombians in Ecuador as Venezuelans Become More Visible

Though Colombians displaced by a decades-long civil war found a welcome refuge in Ecuador, life has become more difficult for them in recent years, in part as a result of the influx of Venezuelans seeking safety. This article draws on surveys of migrants in Quito, comparing and contrasting the experiences of Colombians and Venezuelans, and assessing their perceptions of discrimination, victimization, trust in institutions, and hopes for the future.




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La Bienvenida Se Agota para Colombianos en Ecuador Mientras Venezolanos Se Hacen Más Visibles

Aunque colombianos encontraron un refugio cálido en Ecuador después de ser desplazados de su país por una guerra civil que duro décadas, la vida se ha vuelto más difícil para ellos en los últimos años, en parte como resultado del flujo de venezolanos que buscan seguridad. Este artículo se basa en encuestas de migrantes en Quito, comparando y contrastando las experiencias de colombianos y venezolanos, y evaluando sus percepciones de discriminación, victimización y esperanzas para el futuro.




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Bienvenidas asimétricas: Respuestas de América Latina y el Caribe a la migración venezolana y nicaragüense

El gran desplazamiento forzado de personas en Venezuela y Nicaragua está transformando el panorama migratorio en gran parte de América Latina y el Caribe. Este informe examina las respuestas de las políticas de inmigración e integración de once países, incluyendo vías de regularización y medidas para integrar a los recién llegados en las escuelas y mercados laborales. Este informe acompaña el lanzamiento de un Portal Sobre Migración que ofrece investigación y análisis actualizados sobre tendencias y políticas de inmigración en la región.




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Sammy and Bishoo spark India collapse

Darren Sammy and Devendra Bishoo shared five wickets to trigger India's collapse on the second day of the opening Test against the West Indies in New Delhi.




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Warne returns to big stage

Champion leg spinner Shane Warne has signed on to play with Melbourne Stars in the inaugural Big Bash League Twenty20 tournament at the end of the year.




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Glycated Hemoglobin, Prediabetes, and the Links to Cardiovascular Disease: Data From UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

HbA1c levels are increasingly measured in screening for diabetes; we investigated whether HbA1c may simultaneously improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, using QRISK3, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scoring systems.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

UK Biobank participants without baseline CVD or known diabetes (n = 357,833) were included. Associations of HbA1c with CVD was assessed using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors. Predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index (NRI). A separate analysis was conducted in 16,596 participants with known baseline diabetes.

RESULTS

Incident fatal or nonfatal CVD, as defined in the QRISK3 prediction model, occurred in 12,877 participants over 8.9 years. Of participants, 3.3% (n = 11,665) had prediabetes (42.0–47.9 mmol/mol [6.0–6.4%]) and 0.7% (n = 2,573) had undiagnosed diabetes (≥48.0 mmol/mol [≥6.5%]). In unadjusted models, compared with the reference group (<42.0 mmol/mol [<6.0%]), those with prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes were at higher CVD risk: hazard ratio (HR) 1.83 (95% CI 1.69–1.97) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.96–2.60), respectively. After adjustment for classical risk factors, these attenuated to HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.03–1.20) and 1.20 (1.04–1.38), respectively. Adding HbA1c to the QRISK3 CVD risk prediction model (C-index 0.7392) yielded a small improvement in discrimination (C-index increase of 0.0004 [95% CI 0.0001–0.0007]). The NRI showed no improvement. Results were similar for models based on the ACC/AHA and SCORE risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The near twofold higher unadjusted risk for CVD in people with prediabetes is driven mainly by abnormal levels of conventional CVD risk factors. While HbA1c adds minimally to cardiovascular risk prediction, those with prediabetes should have their conventional cardiovascular risk factors appropriately measured and managed.




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Novel Biomarkers for Change in Renal Function in People With Dysglycemia

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is a major risk factor for renal function decline and failure. The availability of multiplex panels of biochemical markers provides the opportunity to identify novel biomarkers that can better predict changes in renal function than routinely available clinical markers.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The concentration of 239 biochemical markers was measured in stored serum from participants in the biomarker substudy of Outcome Reduction With Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) trial. Repeated-measures mixed-effects models were used to compute the annual change in eGFR (measured as mL/min/1.73 m2/year) for the 7,482 participants with a recorded baseline and follow-up eGFR. Linear regression models using forward selection were used to identify the independent biomarker determinants of the annual change in eGFR after accounting for baseline HbA1c, baseline eGFR, and routinely measured clinical risk factors. The incidence of the composite renal outcome (i.e., renal replacement therapy, renal death, renal failure, albuminuria progression, doubling of serum creatinine) and death within each fourth of change in eGFR predicted from these models was also estimated.

RESULTS

During 6.2 years of median follow-up, the median annual change in eGFR was –0.18 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. Fifteen biomarkers independently predicted eGFR decline after accounting for cardiovascular risk factors, as did 12 of these plus 1 additional biomarker after accounting for renal risk factors. Every 0.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 predicted annual fall in eGFR predicted a 13% (95% CI 12, 14%) higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding up to 16 biomarkers to routinely measured clinical risk factors improves the prediction of annual change in eGFR in people with dysglycemia.




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Visit-to-Visit HbA1c Variability Is Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Microvascular Complications in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and cardiovascular events and microvascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study analyzed patients from Tayside and Fife in the Scottish Care Information–Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC) who were observable from the diagnosis of diabetes and had at least five HbA1c measurements before the outcomes were evaluated. We used the previously reported HbA1c variability score (HVS), calculated as the percentage of the number of changes in HbA1c >0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) among all HbA1c measurements within an individual. The association between HVS and 10 outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

We included 13,111–19,883 patients in the analyses of each outcome. The patients with HVS >60% were associated with elevated risks of all outcomes compared with the lowest quintile (for example, HVS >80 to ≤100 vs. HVS ≥0 to ≤20, hazard ratio 2.38 [95% CI 1.61–3.53] for major adverse cardiovascular events, 2.4 [1.72–3.33] for all-cause mortality, 2.4 [1.13–5.11] for atherosclerotic cardiovascular death, 2.63 [1.81–3.84] for coronary artery disease, 2.04 [1.12–3.73] for ischemic stroke, 3.23 [1.76–5.93] for heart failure, 7.4 [3.84–14.27] for diabetic retinopathy, 3.07 [2.23–4.22] for diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 5.24 [2.61–10.49] for diabetic foot ulcer, and 3.49 [2.47–4.95] for new-onset chronic kidney disease). Four sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for time-weighted average HbA1c, confirmed the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that higher HbA1c variability is associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and microvascular complications of diabetes independently of high HbA1c.




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Plasma N-Glycans as Emerging Biomarkers of Cardiometabolic Risk: A Prospective Investigation in the EPIC-Potsdam Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Plasma protein N-glycan profiling integrates information on enzymatic protein glycosylation, which is a highly controlled ubiquitous posttranslational modification. Here we investigate the ability of the plasma N-glycome to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs; i.e., myocardial infarction and stroke).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Based on the prospective European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 27,548), we constructed case-cohorts including a random subsample of 2,500 participants and all physician-verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes (n = 820; median follow-up time 6.5 years) and CVD (n = 508; median follow-up time 8.2 years). Information on the relative abundance of 39 N-glycan groups in baseline plasma samples was generated by chromatographic profiling. We selected predictive N-glycans for type 2 diabetes and CVD separately, based on cross-validated machine learning, nonlinear model building, and construction of weighted prediction scores. This workflow for CVD was applied separately in men and women.

RESULTS

The N-glycan–based type 2 diabetes score was strongly predictive for diabetes risk in an internal validation cohort (weighted C-index 0.83, 95% CI 0.78–0.88), and this finding was externally validated in the Finland Cardiovascular Risk Study (FINRISK) cohort. N-glycans were moderately predictive for CVD incidence (weighted C-indices 0.66, 95% CI 0.60–0.72, for men; 0.64, 95% CI 0.55–0.73, for women). Information on the selected N-glycans improved the accuracy of established and clinically applied risk prediction scores for type 2 diabetes and CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Selected N-glycans improve type 2 diabetes and CVD prediction beyond established risk markers. Plasma protein N-glycan profiling may thus be useful for risk stratification in the context of precisely targeted primary prevention of cardiometabolic diseases.




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Genetic Susceptibility Determines {beta}-Cell Function and Fasting Glycemia Trajectories Throughout Childhood: A 12-Year Cohort Study (EarlyBird 76)

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that childhood prediabetes may develop prior to obesity and be associated with relative insulin deficiency. We proposed that the insulin-deficient phenotype is genetically determined and tested this hypothesis by longitudinal modeling of insulin and glucose traits with diabetes risk genotypes in the EarlyBird cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

EarlyBird is a nonintervention prospective cohort study that recruited 307 healthy U.K. children at 5 years of age and followed them throughout childhood. We genotyped 121 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with diabetes risk, identified in the adult population. Association of SNPs with fasting insulin and glucose and HOMA indices of insulin resistance and β-cell function, available from 5 to 16 years of age, were tested. Association analysis with hormones was performed on selected SNPs.

RESULTS

Several candidate loci influenced the course of glycemic and insulin traits, including rs780094 (GCKR), rs4457053 (ZBED3), rs11257655 (CDC123), rs12779790 (CDC123 and CAMK1D), rs1111875 (HHEX), rs7178572 (HMG20A), rs9787485 (NRG3), and rs1535500 (KCNK16). Some of these SNPs interacted with age, the growth hormone–IGF-1 axis, and adrenal and sex steroid activity.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that genetic markers influence both elevated and average courses of glycemic traits and β-cell function in children during puberty independently of BMI are a significant step toward early identification of children at risk for diabetes. These findings build on our previous observations that pancreatic β-cell defects predate insulin resistance in the onset of prediabetes. Understanding the mechanisms of interactions among genetic factors, puberty, and weight gain would allow the development of new and earlier disease-management strategies in children.




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Confirming the Bidirectional Nature of the Association Between Severe Hypoglycemic and Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From EXSCEL

OBJECTIVE

We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a post hoc analysis of 14,752 Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) participants, we examined time-dependent associations between SHEs and subsequent major adverse cardiac events (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or stroke), fatal/nonfatal MI, fatal/nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (hACS), hospitalization for heart failure (hHF), and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as time-dependent associations between nonfatal CV events and subsequent SHEs.

RESULTS

SHEs were uncommon and not associated with once-weekly exenatide therapy (hazard ratio 1.13 [95% CI 0.94–1.36], P = 0.179). In fully adjusted models, SHEs were associated with an increased risk of subsequent ACM (1.83 [1.38–2.42], P < 0.001), CV death (1.60 [1.11–2.30], P = 0.012), and hHF (2.09 [1.37–3.17], P = 0.001), while nonfatal MI (2.02 [1.35–3.01], P = 0.001), nonfatal stroke (2.30 [1.25–4.23], P = 0.007), hACS (2.00 [1.39–2.90], P < 0.001), and hHF (3.24 [1.98–5.30], P < 0.001) were all associated with a subsequent increased risk of SHEs. The elevated bidirectional time-dependent hazards linking SHEs and a composite of all CV events were approximately constant over time, with those individuals at dual risk showing higher comorbidity scores compared with those without.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings, showing greater risk of SHEs after CV events as well as greater risk of CV events after SHEs, validate a bidirectional relationship between CV events and SHEs in patients with high comorbidity scores.




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Inoreader mobile apps updated to support Automatic Night Mode, Microblogs, Sort by Magic and popularity indicators.

Hey, it’s been quite some time without updates on this front, but our latest updates to our Android and iOS…




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Autologous Umbilical Cord Blood Transfusion in Young Children With Type 1 Diabetes Fails to Preserve C-Peptide

OBJECTIVE

We conducted an open-label, phase I study using autologous umbilical cord blood (UCB) infusion to ameliorate type 1 diabetes (T1D). Having previously reported on the first 15 patients reaching 1 year of follow-up, herein we report on the complete cohort after 2 years of follow-up.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 24 T1D patients (median age 5.1 years) received a single intravenous infusion of autologous UCB cells and underwent metabolic and immunologic assessments.

RESULTS

No infusion-related adverse events were observed. β-Cell function declined after UCB infusion. Area under the curve C-peptide was 24.3% of baseline 1 year postinfusion (P < 0.001) and 2% of baseline 2 years after infusion (P < 0.001). Flow cytometry revealed increased regulatory T cells (Tregs) (P = 0.04) and naive Tregs (P = 0.001) 6 and 9 months after infusion, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Autologous UCB infusion in children with T1D is safe and induces changes in Treg frequency but fails to preserve C-peptide.




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The Colombian Response to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis: A Dialogue with Colombia’s Migration Czar

Felipe Muñoz, Advisor to the President of Colombia for the Colombian-Venezuelan Border, discusses how Colombia is coping with the influx of Venezuelan migrants, plans for future policy decisions surrounding this migration, and developments in regional and international cooperation.




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Turning the Tide: Addressing the Long-Term Challenges of EU Mobility for Sending Countries

Amid ongoing debates about the costs and benefits of free movement, this MPI webinar examines evidence from the EU-funded REMINDER project on different types of East-West mobility. Speakers examine big-picture trends of East-West migration; consider possible policy responses at regional, national, and EU levels to alleviate some of the challenges; and reflect on realistic actions that could be taken under a new European Commission.




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A Study of Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes among African-Born Women Living in Utah

Resettled African refugee women may experience particularly acute complications during pregnancy, birth, and the child's early infancy. Yet health care-providers and policymakers may not be aware of the particular challenges that these women and their children face. This report, examining women giving birth in Utah over a seven-year period, compares perinatal complications of the African born and a segment of the U.S. born.




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Case Study: Potential Pitfalls of Using Hemoglobin A1c as the Sole Measure of Glycemic Control

Huy A. Tran
Jul 1, 2004; 22:141-143
Case Studies




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SGLT-2 Inhibitors: A New Mechanism for Glycemic Control

Edward C. Chao
Jan 1, 2014; 32:4-11
Feature Articles




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Opportunities and Challenges for Biosimilars: What's on the Horizon in the Global Insulin Market?

Lisa S. Rotenstein
Oct 1, 2012; 30:138-150
Features




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Application of Adult-Learning Principles to Patient Instructions: A Usability Study for an Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Device

Gayle Lorenzi
Sep 1, 2010; 28:157-162
Bridges to Excellence




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Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




Decision problems.
Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

Solution strategies.
The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

"Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

"Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

Robustness and Probability

Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

Wrapping Up

The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. 




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Habit: A Response to the Unknown


David Hume explained that we believe by habit that logs will burn, stones will fall, and endless other past patterns will recur. No experiment can prove the future recurrence of past events. An experiment belongs to the future only until it is implemented; once completed, it becomes part of the past. In order for past experiments to prove something about the future, we must assume that the past will recur in the future. That's as circular as it gets.

But without the habit of believing that past patterns will recur, we would be incapacitated and ineffectual (and probably reduced to moping and sobbing). Who would dare climb stairs or fly planes or eat bread and drink wine, without the belief that, like in the past, the stairs will bear our weight, the wings will carry us aloft, and the bread and wine will nourish our body and soul. Without such habits we would become a jittering jelly of indecision in the face of the unknown.

But you can't just pull a habit out of a hat. We spend great effort instilling good habits in our children: to brush their teeth, tell the truth, and not pick on their little sister even if she deserves it.

As we get older, and I mean really older, we begin to worry that our habits become frozen, stodgy, closed-minded and constraining. Younger folks smile at our rigid ways, and try to loosen us up to the new wonders of the world: technological, culinary or musical. Changing your habits, or staying young when you aren't, isn't always easy. Without habits we're lost in an unknowable world.

And yet, openness to new ideas, tastes, sounds and other experiences of many sorts can itself be a habit, and perhaps a good one. It is the habit of testing the unknown, of acknowledging the great gap between what we do know and what we can know. That gap is an invitation to growth and awe, as well as to fear and danger.

The habit of openness to change is not a contradiction. It is simply a recognition that habits are a response to the unknown. Not everything changes all the time (or so we're in the habit of thinking), and some things are new under the sun (as newspapers and Nobel prize committees periodically remind us).

Habits, including the habit of open-mindedness, are a good thing precisely because we can never know for sure how good or bad they really are.





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New JHBS: Mind-Body Medicine Before Freud, Psychology and Biography, Jung and Einstein

The Spring 2020 issue of the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences is now online. Full details about contributions to this issue follow below. “Practicing mind-body medicine before Freud: John G. Gehring, the “Wizard of the Androscoggin”” by. Ben Harris and Courtney J. Stevens. Abstract: This article describes the psychotherapy practice of physician … Continue reading New JHBS: Mind-Body Medicine Before Freud, Psychology and Biography, Jung and Einstein




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Fact Check: Does Pubic Hair Grooming Increase the Risk of Getting an STI?

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are on the rise, and many people are curious about the reasons why. While the cause is obviously multifactorial, some have suggested that at least part of the rise in STIs may be due to increasing rates of pubic hair grooming in men and women alike. Given that it’s not uncommon for people to experience cuts and skin irritation from genital grooming practices, it at least sounds plausible in theory that pubic hair shaving could potentially increase infection risk. But what does the research actually say?




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Rates of Consensual and Nonconsensual Nonmonogamy Among Heterosexual, Gay, and Bisexual Adults

I was recently invited to write a book chapter on nonmonogamy in LGBTQ+ relationships, and one of the things I wanted to do in it was compare the prevalence of both consensual nonmonogamy (polyamory, open relationships, swinging) and nonconsensual nonmonogamy (cheating/infidelity). Further, I wanted to look at whether rates of these practices were similar or different for LGBTQ+ persons compared to heterosexual persons. However, I found it surprisingly difficult to locate reliable data points. The problem I kept running into is that study after study conflated consensual nonmonogamy with nonconsensual nonmonogamy. In other words, researchers were putting all of these folks into the same category without attempting to distinguish whether they were permitted under the rules of the relationship or not.




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How women are revolutionizing Rwanda | Agnes Binagwaho

In 1996, Agnes Binagwaho returned home to Rwanda in the aftermath of its genocide. She considered leaving amid the overwhelming devastation, but women in her community motivated her to stay and help rebuild -- and she's glad she did. In an inspiring talk, Binagwaho reflects on her work as Rwanda's former Minister of Health and discusses her new women's education initiative for the country, which strives to create one of the greatest levels of gender equality worldwide.




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How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic | Bill Gates

Philanthropist and Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates offers insights into the COVID-19 pandemic, discussing why testing and self-isolation are essential, which medical advancements show promise and what it will take for the world to endure this crisis. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and current affairs curator Whitney Pennington Rodgers. Recorded March 24, 2020)




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How we can navigate the coronavirus pandemic with courage and hope | Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks

Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks offers thoughts on how we can navigate the coronavirus pandemic with courage, hope and empathy. With wisdom and clarity, he speaks on leadership, fear, death, hope and how we could use this moment to build a more just world. Watch for a special, impromptu prayer about halfway through the conversation. (This virtual conversation is part of the TED Connects series, hosted by head of TED Chris Anderson and head of curation Helen Walters. Recorded March 30, 2020)




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A new way to "grow" islands and coastlines | Skylar Tibbits

What if we could harness the ocean's movement to protect coastal communities from rising sea levels? Designer and TED Fellow Skylar Tibbits shows how his lab is creating a dynamic, adaptable system of underwater structures that uses energy from ocean waves to accumulate sand and restore eroding shorelines -- working with the forces of nature to build rather than destroy.




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How we're using AI to discover new antibiotics | Jim Collins

Before the coronavirus pandemic, bioengineer Jim Collins and his team combined the power of AI with synthetic biology in an effort to combat a different looming crisis: antibiotic-resistant superbugs. Collins explains how they pivoted their efforts to begin developing a series of tools and antiviral compounds to help fight COVID-19 -- and shares their plan to discover seven new classes of antibiotics over the next seven years. (This ambitious plan is a part of The Audacious Project, TED's initiative to inspire and fund global change.)




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Publication Bias And Lockdown Memories: The Week’s Best Psychology Links

Our weekly round-up of the best psychology coverage from elsewhere on the web