The US and Europe have taken different approaches to tackling pandemic-induced unemployment but which is best long term?

In two, terrible, months the coronavirus pandemic has driven unemployment in the US to levels unseen since the 1930s Great Depression. Did it have to be this way?

Covid-19 has cost more than 33 million Americans their jobs in the last seven weeks – 10% of the entire US population. The official unemployment rate had shot up from 4.4% to 14.7% on Friday – a figure that probably wildly underestimates the true scale of job losses.

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Campaigners warn Shafiqul Islam Kajol faces a lengthy sentence as his family worries about his exposure to Covid-19 in prison

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Fifty-three days after he disappeared, Bangladeshi journalist Shafiqul Islam Kajol turned up on Sunday in police custody at a border town 150 miles from where he had last been seen.

“I am alive,” he told his son by phone, the first time the family had heard his voice since his disappearance in early March, a day after a case was filed against him and 31 others under the country’s controversial new Digital Security Act.

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Minibuses that run on Friday evenings and Saturdays buck state’s religious restrictions

Tel Aviv is one of Israel’s most dynamic cities, but the latest local craze could appear fairly humdrum to outsiders – a bus service that runs at weekends.

Packed 19-seat minibuses fill up fast with passengers, who excitedly gossip about the new routes. People patiently queue at bus stops, knowing they might have to wait for two or three buses to pass before there is a space. Still, they are upbeat. “It’s a pleasure,” said Ben Uzan, a 30-year-old electronic engineer. “It’s a blessed initiative.”

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Former staffer discusses allegation in in-depth interview with the former Fox News and NBC host

Tara Reade repeated her allegations of sexual assault against Joe Biden in an in-depth interview with Megyn Kelly released on Friday, answering questions on who she shared her story with and why she supported the former vice president publicly in the past.

Reade has accused Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993, when she worked as an aide in his Senate office. She told Kelly, a former Fox News and NBC host who memorably sparred with Trump during the 2016 campaign over his treatment of women, that Biden pushed her against the wall in a Senate hallway and digitally penetrated her against her will.

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The euro area is suffering its worst contraction ever, as the French economy suffers its biggest plunge since the second world war

• Latest: 3.8m US initial jobless claims last week
• Eurozone economy shrank by 3.8% last quarter
  
• France in recession as GDP shrinks 5.8%
  
• Coronavirus – latest updates
  
• See all our coronavirus coverage

5.23pm BST

Time for a recap...

A fresh flurry of grim economic data has confirmed that the global economy is falling into its worst contraction in decades, giving markets a jolt.

5.07pm BST

April was a good month for Europe’s stock markets, despite a late wobble today.

The Stoxx 600 index gained 6.2% this month, its best monthly gain since October 2015 (after the Greek debt crisis finally eased). Germany’s DAX gained over 9% this month.

5.03pm BST

Britain’s FTSE 100 has just posted its worst day in a month, at the end of its best month in two years.

The blue-chip index has closed down 214 points at 5901, a drop of 3.5%. That wipes out yesterday’s rally, and half of Wednesday’s gains too!

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

4.42pm BST

Shares in Zoom have dropped over 6% today, after the video-conferencing services admitted it wasn’t quite as popular as thought...

Zoom had initially said it had 300 million daily users, following the surge in remote working. But, it actually has 300 million daily meeting participants.

Zoom shares dropped more than 7% after the company walked back on claims it has 300 million daily active users. $ZM actually reached 300m daily participants, the difference being that meeting participants can be counted more than once.https://t.co/UIVYBP9sqt

4.33pm BST

Despite today’s declines, April has still been a very strong month for the markets.

America’s S&P 500 index has gained almost 13%, trimming its losses for the year to 9%.

The S&P 500 is lower today, but still on pace for its best month in decades

Follow the latest updates > https://t.co/WLOc9YlsXU@naterattner @foimbert @mkmfitzgerald pic.twitter.com/wft4YvkJ9p

4.28pm BST

The US jobs report for April is released a week tomorrow. But we already know it will be grim, thanks to the weekly initial jobs claims numbers.

Capital Economists estimate that America’s unemployment rate has surged to at least 15% this month, wiping out twice as many jobs as were created over the last decade.

We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%.

That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a single month, equating to more than double the total decline in employment during and after the financial crisis.

4.00pm BST

Crumbs, the FTSE 100 has now lost 200 points for the day, a loss of over 3%.... Still 30 minutes of trading in which to recover (or get worse).

3.39pm BST

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to hurt the travel sector badly too.

TUI has cancelled holiday trips due to start on or before June 11, meaning disappointment for one million hopeful holidaymakers.

Related: Tui cancels beach holidays until June amid coronavirus crisis

3.37pm BST

Britain’s economy has suffered another blow -- high street retailers Oasis and Warehouse are shutting, with the loss of 1,800 jobs:

Related: Oasis and Warehouse to close permanently, with loss of 1,800 jobs

3.20pm BST

Just in: America’s central bank is expanding one of its many new programmes to help the US economy ride out the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program -- which is meant to help small firms access affordable credit, and stop viable companies going bust.

More than 2,200 letters from individuals, businesses, and nonprofits were received. In response to the public input, the Board decided to expand the loan options available to businesses, and increased the maximum size of businesses that are eligible for support under the program.

Fed Reserve to expand loan offerings + qualification for $600 billion lending effort for small, mid-size businesses hit by #COVID pandemic. Main Street Lending Program to allow larger businesses to participate, ease loan amounts. https://t.co/8Nx9mgbIpw

3.08pm BST

All the main American and European stock markets are firmly in the red today - risk is firmly off the menu:

2.45pm BST

Bank shares are falling across the eurozone following Christine Lagarde’s press conference.

Traders have noted her gloomy forecasts -- the possibility that the eurozone shrinks by an unprecedented 15% in the April-June quarter. The deeper the recession, and the slower the recovery, then the longer it will be until monetary conditions can ever normalise.

2.35pm BST

Stocks have dropped at the start of trading in New York too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped 301 points at the open, down 1.2% at 24,332. There’s not much sign of the optimism that lifted shares so strongly in April.

2.30pm BST

Back in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde is insisting that the ECB has plenty of firepower.

Lagarde says the Governing Council did not discuss whether to buy junk-rated bonds under its asset purchase scheme, or whether to extend its new PELTRO loan programme beyond banks.

HELICOPTER MONEY FOR BANKS. #ECB's Lagarde: €3tn now available to banks at negative rates. pic.twitter.com/gBlpdvKOAm

2.15pm BST

European stock markets are falling deeper into the red.

The FTSE 100 index has tumbled back through the 6,000 point mark, down 143 points or 2.3% at 5972.

2.03pm BST

Oof! U.S. personal spending has plummeted in March by the most on record.

Household spending slumped by 7.5% last month, which is the worst since the Commerce Department started counting in 1959. That’s rather worse than the 5.1% decline expected.

U.S. consumer spending plunges by the most on record https://t.co/NY4TwU96eJ pic.twitter.com/nGfUyGeUe4

2.01pm BST

Christine Lagarde hammers home the point, telling reporters that the coronavirus pandemic has “literally halted economic activity across the globe”.

The hard economic data is only just starting to emerge, she points out.

Lagarde: "frankly, our severe scenario is -15% economic growth in Q2"

1.49pm BST

Newsflash: ECB president Christine Lagarde has warned that the eurozone faces its worst slump in peacetime.

Speaking on a virtual press conference, Lagarde says the region faces an “unprecedented” downturn.

ECB President Lagarde says Europe facing a recession of unprecedented magnitude; GDP could fall between 5-12% this year, depending on duration of containment measures and policies to mitigate the consequences; speed of recovery is uncertain

1.41pm BST

Worryingly, there is a large backlog of Americans trying to sign on for jobless welfare.

Our business editor Dominic Rushe reports:

Another 3.8 million people lost their jobs in the US last week as the coronavirus pandemic continued to batter the economy. The pace of layoffs appears to be slowing, but in just six weeks an unprecedented 30 million Americans have now sought unemployment benefits and the numbers are still growing.

The latest figures from the labor department released Thursday showed a fourth consecutive week of declining claims. While the trend is encouraging, the rate of losses means US unemployment is still on course to reach levels unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Related: Another 3.8 million Americans lose jobs as US unemployment continues to grow

1.34pm BST

Newsflash: Another 3.84 million Americans filed new jobless claims last week, as the coronavirus lockdown continued to drive up unemployment.

That’s more than the 3.5m initial jobless claims that had been expected.

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 3,839,000 https://t.co/qzeWU4eGpX pic.twitter.com/TxhVqlvfLa

At 3.839M, Initial Jobless Claims came in above the 3.5M estimate, but below last week’s 4.442M level; this was the 4th weekly decline. Claims are still EXTREMELY high, but this leading indicator appears to have peaked on 3/28. https://t.co/maIeV4Rfa2 pic.twitter.com/sNnXRXN8ON

1.13pm BST

The ECB has resisted making any major moves today.

Significantly, it has not increased the size of its new €750bn asset purchase scheme (the pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP), which buys bonds and other assets to stimulate the economy. It has also not widened the programme to include junk-rated bonds.

The Governing Council is fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed.

1.10pm BST

Here’s some early reaction to the European Central Bank making its emergency loans package even more generous, to try to help banks lend to the economy.

Very dovish. ECB relaxes further TLTRO conditions with minimum rate reduced to 50bp below deposit facility rate and extends PEPP until the crisis is over. Main interest rates unchanged. https://t.co/IAf9DGh1mZ

#ECB to pay banks even more for borrowing and even if they don't lend on the cash to the economy. A sort of recapitalisation in disguise?

The stimulus package for European Banks. Cheaper bank funding means that ECB is primarily targeting the bank lending channel [+ offsetting impact of negative deposit rates]. Makes sense for ECB... bank lending in Europe more prevalent for financing. Let's hope there's demand $EUR

The main takeaways from today’s ECB announcement: The ECB remains extremely activist, extremely interventionist in risk-managing Eurozone financial conditions. It continues to refine liquidity provisions to the expectation of weakening collateral quality in bank loans. 1/2

But the big question in the room – Italy - remains beyond its powers. Whether we think the ECB is here to close spreads or not, do we think it is here to prevent a political crisis? The requirement for Italy's downgrade is the same as that for EUR membership: M/T sustainability.

1.04pm BST

Newsflash: The European Central Bank has responded to the economic crisis caused by Covid-19 by beefing up its stimulus package.

The ECB’s governing council has decided to launch a new programme dubbed PELTROS -- which stands for pandemic emergency longer-term refinancing operations.

12.38pm BST

Britain will spend more than £100bn this financial year trying to repair the damage caused by the coronavirus, according to the latest estimates.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is tracking chancellor Rishi Sunak’s various pledges - from the jobs retention scheme to business rate relief. And it currently estimates that the total bill is £105bn, with Sunak’s furloughing scheme costing £49bn alone (although the Treasury should get £10bn back in tax)

Key costs in #coronavirus economic pkg according to @OBR_UK

Furlough scheme: £39bn net
Self-employed income support: £10bn
Small Biz Grant: £15bn
Biz rate relief: £13bn
Welfare package: £7bn

DOESN’T include estimate of any losses on various loan schemes

Our new database tracks the Chancellor’s policy interventions to limit the economic damage of coronavirus crisis. So far, the cost in 2020-21 is roughly £105 billion (in cash terms)

Download from our website: https://t.co/x9blRq9Ui0

12.27pm BST

European stock markets have turned south, after another morning of bleak economic data.

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 81 points or 1.3% at 60330, handing back half of yesterday’s rally.

12.05pm BST

Back in the UK, carmaker Nissan plans to reopen its Sunderland factory - the biggest single plant in the UK - at the start of June.

Production at the plant, which produces Nissan’s Qashqai and Juke models and the electric Leaf, has been suspended since 17 March, with many of its more than 6,000 workers furloughed.

Our goal is to navigate through this crisis while maintaining activities critical for business continuity and to make sure we are prepared for the time when business resumes in Europe and we can welcome the Nissan team back to work.

11.58am BST

I missed this earlier, sorry, but Austria’s economy has also been hit by the pandemic.

Austrian GDP shrank by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020. That’s not as bad as France, Spain and Italy, but still puts Austria halfway into recession.

Austria GDP -2.5%, like Belgium -3.9% yesterday, shows that weakness is widespread in the eurozone, but far from the collapse seen today in Spain, France and likely in Italy. pic.twitter.com/Y58eCCixs5

Belgium GDP falls an unprecedented 3.9% in the first quarter.

Shows how severe the recession is going to be in the euro area. pic.twitter.com/o0kTzdRUYg

11.45am BST

Recessions are bleak things. They typically mean rising unemployment, more company failures, a rise in bad debts, falling asset prices and widespread gloom and despair.

But this time, they also mean that the Covid-19 lockdown measures are being followed.

"Lockdowns work" is the unfortunate economic news from today. Let's hope that loosening the lockdowns has an equally swift impact in Q2. The good news for Germany is, that it's delayed & less severe lockdown will likely leave its economy contracting by "only" 2% or so in Q1. pic.twitter.com/YQYRWB1s7H

11.26am BST

Ouch! The Covid-19 lockdown has wiped out all Italy’s growth since the eurozone crisis, and more!

Italian GDP was down by 4.7% over the quarter in Q1. What surprise me is that it was better than France and Spain, despite Italy started its lock-down earlier. However, while the Eurozone is now back to 2017 level, Italy is now back to early 2000 level. pic.twitter.com/ds2hnj7yfC

11.15am BST

Newsflash: Italy has joined France in recession, after suffering its worst slump in decades.

Italian GDP shrank by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2020, new figures from ISTAT show.

ITALY Q1 GDP -4.7% pic.twitter.com/7azaDfNmsy

10.20am BST

Today’s GDP data only gives us an early sighter of the dark slump which Europe’s economy is falling into.

Economists predict another historic contraction in April-June, as the full force of the Covid-19 lockdowns hit growth.

Eurozone Mar qtr GDP -3.8%qoq as lockdowns hit in Mar. But full impact of lockdowns to show this qtr with GDP likely ~-10%qoq ahead of a return to growth in second half as lockdowns ease
Unemp up only slightly but its a lagging indicator
Fall in inflation. (Bloomberg table) pic.twitter.com/A76zse9FSG

In case the #ECB needed any more bad news for its briefing notes...#Eurozone GDP fell by 3.8% QoQ in the first quarter. And this was only with roughly two weeks of lockdown and supply chain disruptions. Brace yourself for worse to happen.

10.07am BST

The eurozone economy is shrinking even faster than feared, according to Reuters:

The eurozone economy contracted at a record rate and by more than expected in the first three months of the year and inflation slowed sharply as much economic activity in March came to a halt because of the COVID-19 pandemic, data showed on Thursday.

According to a preliminary flash estimate of the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat economic output in the 19 countries sharing the euro in January-March was 3.8% smaller than in the previous three months -- the sharpest quarterly decline since the time series started in 1995.

10.04am BST

NEWSFLASH: the eurozone economy shrank by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, putting it halfway into recession.

That’s an extremely grim contraction, worse than during the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Euro area #GDP -3.8% in Q1 2020, -3.3% compared with Q1 2019: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/x17Ql1VD2U pic.twitter.com/1fNtPVZokS

EURO ZONE PRELIMINARY FLASH Q1 GDP ESTIMATE -3.8% Q/Q VS CONSENSUS -3.5%, -3.3% Y/Y VS CONSENSUS -3.1% - EUROSTAT

9.58am BST

Here’s a reminder of this morning’s dire French growth figures (for those who weren’t wide awake at 6.30am)

Shocking collapse in French GDP in Q1. Down 5.8%.
Bigger than the financial crisis (Q1 2009 –1.6%)
Bigger than the May 68 strikes/demonstrations (Q2 1968 -5.3%)
Biggest drop since comparable records began in 1949 pic.twitter.com/Bc9yIkOo0N

9.53am BST

Today’s woeful French and Spanish growth figures will have dampened the mood as the European Central Bank holds its monetary policy meeting today.

Sebastien Clements, currency analyst at international payments company OFX, says ECB chief Christine Lagarde and colleagues will be worried about the future.

“Not the ideal start to the day for President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, as both Spanish and French quarterly GDP figures came in at least 1% off the forecasted mark. It won’t be the figure itself that causes a headache, but rather the potential of what may follow…

“Lagarde has already laid her cards on the table with the bulk of the zone’s stimulus options having been delivered in the form of PEPP implementation and collateral loosening, but her job is not yet done. With its back against the wall, is now a good time for the ECB to get ahead of the curve and inject some investor confidence in the form of maintaining a stable monetary position? Just this morning, I spoke with a client at a UK food distributor who has decided to close their European entity and set up in Asia for the sake of supply side ease, cost cutting and licensing issues.”

9.41am BST

Newsflash: A quarter of UK businesses currently trading say that their turnover has more than halved this month.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics, which has just published its latest ‘faster indicators’ of the pandemic’s impact on the economy.

9.16am BST

These chart from Danske Bank’s Aila Mihr show how Germany’s unemployment total swelled alarmingly this month:

#Corona crisis reaches #Germany's labour market, with largest monthly increase in unemployment claims ever recorded. pic.twitter.com/x046HlXBuM

So 10.1 mln people on short-time work in #Germany, 373,000 more unemployed in April and the unemployment rate is now 5.8% from previous 5.0%
The virus is taking its toll on the German job market

9.12am BST

A boom in disinfectant sales has benefited Reckitt Benckiser, which makes Dettol and Lysol.

“People want cleaner surfaces at home. They are cleaning more, washing more … Some behaviour becomes quite ingrained. There is a reinforcement of hygiene as a basis of health.”

9.08am BST

Back in the UK, the boss of Sainsbury’s supermarket has predicted that disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will last until at least mid-September.

CEO Mike Coupe reckons that physically distanced queues are likely to remain “for the foreseeable future”, dampening hopes of an early end to lockdown restrictions.

Related: Sainsbury's boss says coronavirus disruption will last until mid-September

9.06am BST

Just in: The number of people out of work in Germany has surged.

Germany’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate has leapt to 5.8% this month, up from 5% in May, the Labour Office reports.

German unemployment increased from 5.0% to 5.8% in April. Labor market is supported by extensive use of kurzarbeit, but unemployment is set to increase further. However, Germany has fiscal means and willpower to support growth substantially later in the year #macrobond pic.twitter.com/OwdrhRnQT6

8.54am BST

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell have tumbled 7% this morning after it disappointed investors by slashing its dividend by two thirds.

CEO Ben van Buerden defended the move as a “prudent” response to the “extremely challenging conditions” caused by Covid-19, with oil prices tumbling this year.

“Given the continued deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the significant mid- and long-term uncertainty, we are taking further prudent steps to bolster our resilience, underpin the strength of our balance sheet and support the long-term value creation of Shell.

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

8.32am BST

France’s fall into recession hasn’t dampened the mood on the Paris stock market,

The CAC 40 index of leading French companies jumped by 0.9% in early trading to 4,711 points - a seven-week high.

8.23am BST

The latest economic data from China shows that its recovery from the pandemic is being hit by weakness abroad.

China’s official manufacturing PMI (which measures activity in the sector) dropped to 50.8 for April from 52 in March. That shows less growth, as a reading of 50 indicates stagnation.

#China Factory Data Shows Global Slump Undercut Nascent Recovery - Bloomberg
*Link: https://t.co/gNTOU0UIt0 pic.twitter.com/4dycAL5BQc

8.13am BST

Newsflash: Spain’s economy is also shrinking - and faster than feared.

Spanish real GDP -5.2% QoQ, also below expectations with private consumption and investment in free fall, unsurprisingly. https://t.co/HDCZMa2eFg pic.twitter.com/ugSiIBGgGh

Spain also worse than expected (even if less dramatically so): -5.2% vs consensus -4.3%

7.55am BST

More gloom -- French consumer spending has taken a whopping dive last month, as the lockdown forced shops to close.

Consumer spending fell by almost 18% last month, INSEE reports, despite a rise in food spending. It’s the worst drop in consumer spending since at least 1980 (when the data series began).

Manufactured good consumption dropped sharply (–42.3% after –0.6%) and energy expenditure decreased markedly (–11.4% after –0.9%). Only food consumption increased (+7.8% after –0.1%).

The fall in household consumption in March 2020 was essentially due to the implementation of lockdown measures from mid-March onwards.

WOW
France Consumer Spending (Mar) Act: -17.9%, exp: -5.8%, prev: -0.1%

7.49am BST

French bank SocGen has posted a surprise loss, and set aside €820m to cover bad loans - in another sign that Covid-19 is hurting France’s economy.

SocGen also suffered trading losses during the market mayhem of the last quarter. Bloomberg has heard that its traders came unstuck on some dividend futures contracts....

7.39am BST

Several major companies are reporting the impact of Covid-19 on their businesses today.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is slashing its shareholder dividend for the first time since te 1940s. Investors will get just 16 cents per share, from 47 cents per share, after profits plunged in the last quarter.

7.32am BST

France’s grim growth figures are a clear sign that Europe is entering its deepest recession of the postwar era, says Bloomberg.

The economy shrank 5.8%, the most since records began in 1949. The slump shows the dramatic effect of government-ordered shutdowns as just two weeks of closures and restrictions were sufficient to snuff out growth for the entire quarter. Figures for the euro area later on Thursday will probably show the end of a seven-year expansion, and worse is still to come as confinement has continued for the past month.

The virus outbreak has plunged economies across the globe into a tumult that was unthinkable at the start of the year. China’s economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter and the U.S. saw its record expansion come to an end. The IMF expects the global economy to shrink 3% this year, with the euro area dropping 7.5%.

The French economy posts its worst quarter on record https://t.co/zmnqLpeCxx

7.09am BST

A 5.8% plunge in GDP is really, really bad.

As Frederik Ducrozet of Pictet Wealth Management shows here, it wipes out several years of French growth:

We're going to be talking about GDP *levels* more than quarterly growth rates for some time. Better get used to it. pic.twitter.com/MSWHv2VQUm

7.06am BST

Here’s more reaction to France’s plunge into recession this morning.

France enters technical recession.

don't need Q2 to confirm ...

global economy was in dire shape b4 #CV19 pic.twitter.com/pWuSMALwmF

France's economy posted a historic decline of 5.8% and entered a recession. Expect Italy to follow.

7.00am BST

France’s economy shrank even faster than economists predicted, Reuters points out:

The first quarter contraction was the biggest on a quarterly basis since World War II, surpassing the previous record of -5.3% in the second quarter of 1968 when France was gripped by civil unrest, mass student protests and general strikes.

The slump even exceeded most economists’ expectations, which on average were for -3.5%, although estimates in Reuters poll went as low as -7%.

7.00am BST

This chart from INSEE’s growth report shows just how sharply France’s economy shrank:

6.39am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Newsflash: France has plunged into recession, as the Covid-19 lockdown batters its economy.

...primarily linked to the shut-down of “non-essential” activities in the context of the implementation of the lockdown since mid-March.

Household consumption expenditures dropped (–6.1%), as did total gross fixed capital formation in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: –11.8%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes fell sharply: it contributed to –6.6 points to GDP growth.

Exports also fell this quarter (–6.5%) along with imports (–5.9%), in a less pronounced manner. All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.2 points, after –0.1 points the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.9 points).

French real GDP crashed by 5.8% QoQ in Q1, the biggest drop since the beginning of the series in 1949.https://t.co/ri7LxT1PlA pic.twitter.com/0AdesaH6mR

France officially enters recession, with economy shrinking by 5.8% in the first quarter, @InseeFr says. Worst quarter on record (since 1949)
Consumer spending -6.1%,
Company investments -11.4%
And remember France only went into lockdown in mid-March! @France24_en #F24

Continue reading...

Rob Lynch, Papa John's CEO and president, joins CNBC's Kate Rogers to discuss the company's quarterly earnings, how the company was able to lessen the blow from the coronavirus and its supply chain management.

Restaurants across the U.S. are slated to reopen during the summer season as coronavirus restrictions are lifted. CNBC's Kate Rogers reports on what that could mean for restaurant jobs.

Marc Morial, former mayor of New Orleans and CEO and president of the National Urban League, discusses the worst U.S. jobs loss since the end of World War II and the groups that are struggling the most.

The April jobs report is expected to show the worst unemployment rate since the Great Recession. Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, and Beth Akers, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what they expect.

U.S. stock futures rose early Friday morning after more gains in tech led to the Nasdaq Composite erasing all of its losses for 2020. CNBC's Frank Holland reports.

CNBC's Steve Liesman breaks down the April jobs report, which came in at 20.5 million nonfarm payrolls lost in the month. This is the most historic job loss within a single month.

Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the April jobs numbers and what the data means for the U.S. economy.

Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs joins "Squawk on the Street" to discuss the latest jobs number, which saw the unemployment rate soar to 14.7 percent.

Joe Berchtold, president of Live Nation, joins "Squawk Alley" to discuss the company's outlook amid the coronavirus shutdown.

CNBC's Tyler Mathisen talks about the historic job losses in April with Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia.

More than a decade on, fact and fiction remain entangled in the tale of former teammates turned enemies. The human core of the entire episode, though, is not a footballer

Officially, nothing happened. This is, by the way, no minor detail: to this day Vanessa Perroncel fervently denies that any affair took place between her and John Terry in late 2009, and she has the printed apologies and legal documents to back it up. Normally this bit is begrudgingly buried at the bottom of the piece. But it’s worth dwelling on, if only because it forces us to confront the vast, incalculable gulf between what we definitively know and what, over the years, we’ve simply assumed.

A decade on, fact and fiction remain knottily entangled. Over time, the story of how Terry and his former friend and Chelsea teammate Wayne Bridge found themselves at the centre of one of English football’s most hysterical scandals begins to feel surreal, perhaps even a touch unreal: a bad memory that most would prefer to pretend never happened.

Continue reading...

The objections to restart plans are understandable and the game should pay attention, but ultimately clubs need to play games to survive

With each week the plans become a little more refined and with each week any final decision is pushed back. Football may return, and this is how it may look if it does, but nobody is sure, and any proposed date can only be provisional. Which is as it should be. In an age that often favours decisiveness over the decision itself, there is something vaguely comforting about a process that accepts the wisdom of waiting.

But in the background there is a crucial, nagging voice, and what it is saying is this: if football isn’t prepared to return, at least initially, in a form very different to the one it took before the virus, it may not return for a very long time – and for many clubs that means never.

Continue reading...

Des Buckingham followed Under-20 World Cup success by qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics but lost his job last week

There is a word that Des Buckingham, during almost six years working in New Zealand, has used as a mantra to live by. In the Maori language, Mana represents a spiritual essence that almost defies translation but in everyday use it broadly applies thus: a way of holding oneself through dignity, respect, humanity and authority.

It has been invaluable over the past five days because Buckingham is navigating one of the biggest disappointments of a young coaching career that, since he moved to the other side of the world after leaving Oxford United in 2014, had rarely let up.

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The Everton right-back joined Schalke on loan in pre-season and hopes to play against Borussia Dortmund on 16 May

As Jonjoe Kenny remembers the sights and smells that defined his childhood it is tempting, more so at a time such as this, to close your eyes and travel back with him. He can tell what, with a few bumps here and there, is the textbook story of a local boy made good, and Everton games were the focal points throughout. Kenny grew up in Kirkdale, virtually on the doorstep of Goodison Park, and the glimpse of a buzzing County Road brought the kind of sensory assault that would leave thousands pining today.

“It’s about a five-minute walk round the corner,” Kenny says. “On matchdays going to the stadium it was always busy in our area. The chippies were packed, the pubs were packed, and when you’re walking to the game through it all there’s no better feeling. As a kid growing up, it was such a big thing.”

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Spurs’ former scout David Webb tells the story of how four supremely shrewd acquisitions helped take the team to the Champions League final

The anniversary falls on Friday. In the second extraordinary semi-final comeback in as many days, Tottenham overcame Ajax courtesy of a 96th-minute winner from their most recent recruit. A year and a half into his Spurs career, Lucas Moura completed his hat-trick. It was an advertisement for enforced continuity, an antidote to the obsession with spending as the only team in the top five European leagues to go through the season without signing anyone became Champions League finalists.

But it was not entirely true to call Tottenham the team without transfers. There was a golden age of recruitment under Mauricio Pochettino: not in 2018-19, but a seven-month spell in 2015 when Spurs brought in Dele Alli, Son Heung-min, Kieran Trippier and Toby Alderweireld all for less than £45m. Four years, and four top-four finishes later, each of a quartet which could have been valued at a combined £250m started the Champions League final.

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• Heel fracture discovered on striker’s return to training centre
• Injury adds to difficult first season in Spain for €65m signing

The Real Madrid forward Luka Jovic has suffered a foot injury while training at home and is unlikely to be fit for the potential restart of the La Liga season in mid-June.

The Spanish club have confirmed that their medical team discovered a fracture in the Serbian striker’s heel bone during routine tests carried out prior to the resumption of individual training on Monday.

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Head of BBC radio drama who was instrumental in the success of Joe Orton, Sue Townsend, Tom Stoppard and others

To readers of books, John Tydeman is a fictional BBC producer who loomed large in the literary aspirations of Sue Townsend’s Adrian Mole. To Townsend, as for many other writers, he was the real-life radio drama producer who encouraged her, produced her first radio play about the secret diary of “Nigel” Mole, and then introduced her to the publishers Methuen.

As with another of Tydeman’s proteges, Joe Orton, Townsend’s success was dizzying. Between the debut of Nigel in January 1982 and the publication of The Secret Diary of Adrian Mole, Aged 13¾ that September – simultaneously read as a serial on Radio 4 – Townsend had provided Adrian with a book’s worth of diary entries and become a publishing sensation. For the rest of Townsend’s life, Adrian would continue to submit poetry to Tydeman, who would continue to reply with growing exasperation. His letters, with Adrian’s poems, were published by Penguin in 2017.

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Renowned Welsh physicist whose work helped to forge Britain’s reputation as a global leader in climate science

The late 1980s marked a key moment for environmental science, matching triumph with looming disaster. Rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had been observed since the late 1950s, at the remote Pacific observatory of Mauna Loa, but it was only after three decades of further research that concern over what this rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases might mean reached the desks of the world’s leaders.

At the time, politicians appeared receptive to scientific warnings in a way they rarely have been since. In 1987, world governments concluded the Montreal protocol, which still stands today as probably the most successful environmental intervention, phasing out the use of the ozone-depleting chemicals that had threatened to destroy the planet’s protective atmospheric layer.

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Climate advisers call for work and training in low-carbon heating, water efficiency and flood-protection

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Restarting the economy and getting people back to work after the coronavirus lockdown should focus on low-carbon work programmes, the UK government’s climate advisers have urged.

They said this would generate new jobs, protect the climate and ensure a fairer economy for everyone.

Related: Green stimulus can repair global economy and climate, study says

Related: Airlines and oil giants are on the brink. No government should offer them a lifeline | George Monbiot

Income subsidies

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Britain’s central bank warns that the spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it could wipe 14% off UK GDP this year

• Latest: More than 3m Americans filed jobless claims last week
• UK could shrink 25% this quarter, Bank warns
• Bank predicts 14% fall in GDP in 2020 and rising unemployment
• BoE leaves interest rates at 0.1%, QE at £645bn
  
• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

5.13pm BST

Time to recap

Britain is facing its worst recession in 300 years, according to the latest scenario from the Bank of England. The BoE estimates that GDP will plunge by 25% this quarter, with unemployment hitting 9%, due to the abrupt halt to activity under the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 14%, warns Bank of England

New unemployment claims filed in the past 7 weeks:

Week ending...
March 21: 3.3 million
March 28: 6.9 million (**a record**)
April 4: 6.6 million
April 11: 5.2 million
April 18: 4.4 million
April 25: 3.8 million
May 2: 3.2 million

Total: Nearly 33.5 million Americans w/out work pic.twitter.com/KZonDSSPG7

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 3.2m, down from the previous week’s figure of 3.8m and half the peak recorded 5 weeks ago, but roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. These figures support estimates of the April unemployment figure, to be released tomorrow, to reach a shocking 16%.

“Markets, however, are now looking beyond the employment data and forward to the potential recovery. With some US states now beginning to reopen for business, investors will be watching closely to see how quickly employees return to work and how rapidly economic activity bounces back.

4.46pm BST

A late rally has lifted the UK stock market to its highest level in a week.

The FTSE 100 has just closed 82 points higher at 5935, a gain of 1.4%.

4.29pm BST

The International Monetary Fund says it has approved requests for emergency pandemic aid totalling $18bn, from 50 of its 189 members, and is working through another 50 requests.

Reuters has more details;

The IMF’s executive board was working through requests at record speed and would consider a request from Egypt for both emergency financing and a stand-by lending arrangement on May 11, spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in an online briefing.

“It’s an IMF moving at an unprecedented speed in an unprecedented way to meet this unprecedented challenge which we’re all facing,” he said, noting the Fund had also temporarily suspended payments on IMF debts for 25 of the poorest countries.

3.50pm BST

The gloom in the luxury goods sector is deepening even though some countries have started to relax their coronavirus lockdowns.

“As consumers slowly emerge from lockdowns, the way they see the world will have changed and luxury brands will need to adapt.

Safety in store will be mandatory, paired with the magic of the luxury experience: creative ways to attract customers to store, or to get the product to the customer, will make the difference.”

3.47pm BST

Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management, doesn’t share the exuberance in the markets today.

“The US labor market is in the worst position since the Great Depression and is unlikely to improve sustainably anytime soon. Until widespread testing, an effective therapy, and a vaccine are in place, any improvement in employment is likely to be temporary.

Premature efforts to reopen economies undermine our progress in controlling the pandemic and risk extending the duration of the downturn.”

3.46pm BST

The Nasdaq has shrugged off Covid-19 fears because investors are rushing into “giant tech names that are considered more resilient in this crisis”, explained Marios Hadjikyriacos of XM.

That includes Amazon (up 27% this year) and Microsoft (up 16%).

2.53pm BST

Remarkably, the US Nasdaq index has now caught up all this year’s losses.

The tech-focused share index is now flat for 2020, thanks to strong recoveries in major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq is positive for the year. pic.twitter.com/HtkHzXAzEd

2.34pm BST

As expected, the US stock market has indeed jumped in early trading.

Jobless claims should be back below 1M by the 2nd or 3rd week of June; the rate of decay is quite consistent. pic.twitter.com/OtOoeir28P

2.18pm BST

European stock markets are holding onto their earlier gains, despite the latest grim US jobs data.

Wall Street is expected to open higher too, with the Dow up around 1% in pre-market trading.

Repeat after me.

Equities are forward looking jobless claims backward.

Therefore entirely normal at times for them to move in different directions. And yet we get the same old headlines asking why.

2.01pm BST

The spectre of unemployment is haunting America - but in some states more than others:

Jobless Claims Since March 20th as a Percent of Total State Employment: pic.twitter.com/me0mbMFvQj

1.58pm BST

Before the Covid-19 crisis began, America had never lost a million jobs in a single week before.

It has now suffered seven consecutive weeks of massive job losses, as firms have slashed staff under the coronavirus lockdown.

33.5 million Americans have filed jobless claims over the last 7 weeks. https://t.co/WIOd3ZzpVq pic.twitter.com/8vqdipxopI

1.42pm BST

Our US business editor Dominic Rushe says some US states are really struggling to cope with the unprecedented surge in unemployment.

He writes:

The pace of layoffs has overwhelmed state unemployment systems across the country. Over a million people in North Carolina have now made unemployment insurance benefit claims, equivalent to 20% of the state’s workforce.

Some 4 million have applied in California and the state’s jobless benefits fund is “very close” to running out, governor Gavin Newsom said this week.

Related: Coronavirus: three million more Americans file for unemployment

1.41pm BST

Some instant reaction to the latest US jobless report:

The effects of the #coronavirusrecession continue to ripple through the economy. In the week ending in May 2, 3.2 million workers filed for initial unemployment benefits, according to the @USDOL’s Weekly #unemploymentinsurance (UI) claims report. 1/3 pic.twitter.com/XUFFtG3Rpp

3.17 MILLION people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. Almost 33.5 MILLION filing jobless claims in 7 weeks. 1 in 5 Americans unemployed. These are lives and family shaken, devastated.

Though still tremendously elevated, the 3.2 mln new unempl claims continues downward trend as initial surge passes. But # of Americans receiving jobless benefits, pierced 22 mln. pic.twitter.com/b4SF5apZR6

1.33pm BST

Newsflash: Another 3.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefit last week, as the US jobless crisis rages.

That’s down from 3.8m in the previous week, but still another awful number.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,169,000 for the week ending 5/2 (-677,000).

Insured unemployment was 22,647,000 for the week ending 4/25 (+4,636,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

1.28pm BST

Stocks are continuing to rise in London, seemingly lifted by hopes that some UK lockdown restrictions will be eased soon.

The FTSE 100 is now up 63 points or 1.1% at 5917, after the government confirmed that Boris Johnson will reveal his strategy on Sunday evening:

NEW: Boris Johnson will be giving a statement at 7pm on Sunday discussing the route out of the #COVID19 lockdown and the government's next steps.

With oil, mining and banking stocks all in the green, the FTSE added another 0.9% as the session went on, sticking its nose across 5900 for the first time in a week. This would suggest that investors have swallowed the bitter 14% contraction in 2020 pill offered up by the BoE, thanks to the spoonful of sugar that is the expectation of a 15% rebound in 2021.

Elsewhere the markets were just as perky, investors continuing to express their relief at the various ongoing and soon-to-be unveiled lockdown-easing measures around the globe. The DAX passed 10700 as it climbed 0.8%, while the CAC struck 4470 following a 50 point increase.

1.04pm BST

12.48pm BST

Our economic editor Larry Elliott says the BoE is pinning its hopes on a V-shaped recovery to GDP - and pushing banks to do their bit.

One of the key messages from the Bank to the high street lenders was that they stand to lose more by not lending than they will by lending freely, because there will be more long-term scarring of the economy, more companies going bust and more losses for them to swallow. At his press conference, the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said he was ramming home this point to lenders at at every opportunity.

Forecasting is tough at the best of times: in the current circumstances – where there is uncertainty about how fast restrictions will be lifted, how consumers will behave, and whether there will be a second wave of infection – it is all but impossible.

All that can really be said is that the risks to the Bank’s scenario are skewed heavily to the downside. Threadneedle Street decided against providing more stimulus at this week’s meeting, but it is only a question of time.

Related: Bank of England offers hope amid Covid-19's grim economic spectacle

12.35pm BST

New: BoE governor Andrew Bailey tells me while it's unlikely, he doesn't rule out cutting UK interest rates into negative territory (unlike M Carney):
"Previous governors didn't have in mind this scenario we're in today. And I think it's wise not to rule anything off the table."

12.33pm BST

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has told Sky News that the slump in the UK economy this year is “unique, certainly in modern times”.

But he’s also optimistic that activity is likely to recover “much more quickly” than after a normal recession:

.@bankofengland Governor Andrew Bailey says despite the "unique" challenges of #coronavirus, he believes the lifting of the lockdown will see activity in the economy recover 'quicker than it would if was a normal recession.'

Read more here: https://t.co/xVqko9FY6J pic.twitter.com/heyAfBtIMQ

12.09pm BST

It’s been a busy morning for telecoms news too.

Cable operator Virgin Media and mobile network O2 are merging, to create a £31bn “national champion” to challenge BT and Sky in the UK.

Related: Virgin Media and O2 owners confirm £31bn mega-merger in UK

Related: BT suspends dividend to free up 5G and broadband investment

11.50am BST

Here’s Anna Stewart of CNN on the Bank of England’s forecasts:

Bank of England says the economy will contract by 25% in the second quarter. Yes it’s bad.

However, it’s far better than OBR forecast of -35% a couple of weeks ago.

Plus take a look at the projected recovery... pic.twitter.com/PMlsLDAPXe

Sharp rise in unemployment - expected to hit 9% in Q2.

However, compare that to :
WH economist Kevin Hassett has warned of 20% unemployment in April

11.43am BST

London’s Evening Standard points out that the Covid-19 slump will be three times as severe as after the financial crisis of 2008.

Today’s ⁦@EveningStandard⁩ on the plans to stagger the rush hour and the latest Bank Of England forecasts pic.twitter.com/A811vwVaTL

11.35am BST

Covid-19 lockdowns has already pushed British Airway’s parent company into the red.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

British Airways owner International Airlines Group made a £1.5bn loss in the first three months of the year, as chief executive Willie Walsh said it would take three years for passenger demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

IAG has halted 94% of its flights in response to travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic, causing it to bleed cash. Last week, British Airways set out plans to make up to 12,000 of its staff redundant because of the global collapse in air travel.

Related: British Airways owner reports £1.5bn loss due to coronavirus

11.11am BST

Despite the Bank of England’s gloomy prognosis for this year, stocks and the pound are a little higher this morning.

That’s partly because the BoE expects the economy to grow by 15% in 2021, after a 14% contraction this year [although arithmetically that still leaves the economy smaller]

11.03am BST

The Bank of England’s new governor, Andrew Bailey, has hinted that the BoE could expand its stimulus programme at its next meeting in June.

Bloomberg’s Jill Ward has the details:

Two of the BOE’s nine policy makers wanted to immediately increase bond purchases -- the main policy tool now that the key interest rate is near zero -- by 100 billion pounds ($124 billion) in a decision announced early Thursday. The rest agreed downside risks “might necessitate further monetary policy action.”

Bailey, who earlier pledged “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the economy during the coronavirus crisis, told reporters that the fact no action was taken this time doesn’t rule out a response soon.

"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made clear that policy makers could expand monetary stimulus as soon as next month as the U.K. faces an economic slump that could be the worst in Europe"https://t.co/iQK3nKt2ef pic.twitter.com/XMtpY5HHsH

10.48am BST

Trade unions are urging the UK government not to make the economic downturn worse by turning off its furlough scheme too quickly.

The TUC says that today’s statistics showing that two-thirds of firms have tapped the Jobs Retention scheme shows it is vital.

Around half of the workforce are working from home, but varies drastically by industry.

A big majority of workers in the information and communication and professional sectors are working from home, whereas it's a small minority in other industries. pic.twitter.com/QDN3wcbIVk

Around a quarter (23%) of businesses have ceased or paused trading.

This rises to around 80% in the arts and accommodation and food sectors. pic.twitter.com/IsHQKI5wYF

10.37am BST

UK banks have approved an additional 8,550 government-backed business loans worth £1.4bn within the past week, but are still struggling to increase the pace of approvals amid rising demand.

The original coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS) has now lent around £5.5bn to 33,812 small and medium sized businesses since the programme was launched on 23 March.

“Bank staff have worked tirelessly over the past week to provide businesses with the finance they need, delivering another £1.4 billion of lending under the CBIL scheme, on top of over £2 billion in Bounce Back Loans targeted at smaller firms and sole traders.”

10.14am BST

Hat-tip to Ben Chu of the Independent, for showing just how grim the Bank of England’s forecasts are:

The Bank of of England's scenario for UK GDP for the full year of 2020 is...

-14%

That would be the worst year for the economy since 1706 according to the Bank's own historical dataset pic.twitter.com/aKflRovluH

We have estimates of quarterly UK GDP going back to 1920

The Bank's scenario has -25% in the second quarter of 2020.

That would be by far the worst seen: pic.twitter.com/7SH34zwqPW

10.08am BST

The Treasury Committee chairman Mel Stride has ordered Barclays to explain why customers are still having trouble accessing bounce back loans - which are meant to protect UK businesses from this year’s slump.

The 100% government-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme is meant to get cash to struggling businesses far more quickly than other programmes. Any impediments put those firms at risk, Stride said:

“Issues that hamper this are very frustrating to customers and may in some cases threaten business survival.

“I raised the problems that some people were having in accessing the Barclays online system with their CEO during our public committee hearing on Monday and was assured then that the system was able to cope well.

10.01am BST

Just in: nearly a quarter of UK firms have temporarily closed due to the pandemic, and two-thirds are furloughing some staff.

That’s according to the Office for National Statistics. It just reported that 23% of businesses who responded to its latest survey said they had “temporarily closed or paused trading” last month.

9.50am BST

The Bank of England has also shown how its scenario compare to City economists’ forecasts -- where the range is rather, er, broad:

Here's my fave chart from this morning's Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - it's the all-important "nobody knows" chart. pic.twitter.com/vsozkW5fC6

9.43am BST

The key message from the Bank of England today is that activity in the UK has fallen sharply, and is going to continue to plunge during this quarter.

Explaining why it thinks the UK will shrink 14% this year, it says:

Official data are sparse at this stage, but high‑frequency indicators suggest that consumer spending has fallen steeply since March. In large part, that reflects the impact of both enforced and voluntary social distancing, with some additional drag from lower incomes and confidence about the outlook. In those areas most affected, such as tourism and eating out, indicators including aircraft departures and data on the number of seated diners at restaurants suggest that spending has all but come to a halt.

The closure of businesses and widespread moves to working from home have reduced the number of journeys by car and public transport substantially. In addition, spending on many durables is likely to have been delayed. One area that has proved stronger is spending on food, as households substitute spending at supermarkets for eating out. Nevertheless, consumer spending in aggregate has fallen very significantly. In 2020 Q2, it is expected to be almost 30% lower than in 2019 Q4.

9.29am BST

There are also signs that UK house prices are starting to slide, amid the lockdown.

Halifax has reported that prices fell by 0.6% in April, on top of a 0.3% dip in March:

The #Halifax reported #UK #house #prices dipped 0.6% month-on-month in April after a revised fall of 0.3% in March. The annual rate of increase moderated to 2.7% in April from 3.0% in March and a peak of 4.1% in January (which had been the highest level since February 2018).

9.19am BST

The Covid-19 crisis has prompted Norway’s central bank to slash its interest rates to zero.

In a surprise move, the Norges Banks just lowered its key borrowing rate from 0.25% to 0.0%, a record low.

Norges Bank now predicts the mainland economy, which excludes oil and gas output, will contract by 5.2% in 2020, down from a March 13 forecast of 0.4% growth. It expects growth of 3.0% in 2021, up from 1.3% seen earlier.

BREAKING: #Norway's central bank delivers surprise rate cut to 0% in a unanimous decision. Don't envisage making further rate cuts but outlook and balance of risks imply very expansionary monetary policy stance. #Norges

#Norway's central bank lowers its benchmark rate to 0.00%! pic.twitter.com/e0pLjZzaSR

9.05am BST

My colleague Richard Partington writes that the Bank of England has sounded the alarm about the slump in the UK economy this year:

The Bank of England has warned the British economy could shrink by 25% this spring and unemployment more than double as the coronavirus pandemic brings the country to an effective standstill.

Leaving interest rates on hold as the economic crisis unfolds, the central bank said economic activity across the country had fallen sharply since the onset of the global health emergency and the lockdown measures used to contain its spread.

Related: UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

9.01am BST

The Resolution Foundation think tank is concerned that the Bank of England predicts such a sharp jump in unemployment, and only a slow recovery in the labour market:

That 14 per cent hit to the economy is equivalent to around £300 billion, or £9,000 for every family in Britain, and shows why the Bank and Government are right to have protected households as much as possible with policies such as the Job Retention Scheme.

While the Bank’s scenario implies the UK economy will return towards its pre-pandemic growth path in 2021, it projects unemployment to remain above its pre-pandemic path until at least 2023 – after reaching a 25-year high of 9 per cent this year.

Stark unemployment forecast from the Bank of England this morning, and expects 25% contraction in the economy in the quarter to June. pic.twitter.com/pHQZPwXHCN

8.45am BST

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, fears the UK economy could shrink even more sharply than the Bank of England has forecast.

The Brexit cliff-edge at the end of the year, when the UK-EU withdrawal agreement ends, creates added uncertainty, she writes:

“Despite the stark numbers issued by the Bank of England today, additional pressure on the economy is likely. Some social distancing measures are likely to remain in place until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment for the virus, with people also remaining reluctant to socialise and spend. That means recovery is unlikely to start in earnest before sometime next year.

“Looking at the medium term, beyond the impact of reduced investment, other forces could to be in play dampening future productivity. Supply chains are likely to be reconfigured in light of this crisis, potentially increasing geographical diversification and reducing efficiency in order to increase resilience. ‘Just in time’ operations are also likely to be a thing of the past, further eroding productivity. On the other hand, we could see significant consolidation among SMEs, lifting productivity among the long tail of underperforming businesses.

The only good news today is that the Bank expects this economic bombshell to be short-lived, and for the economy to bounce back rapidly. However, the MPC itself concedes it is flying blind to a large extent, warning that a pandemic like this is “especially difficult to quantify”.

“While the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy stance at today’s meeting, it is surely only a matter of time before they decide to. The 7-2 split on whether to increase asset purchases indicates a continued dovish bias from certain voting members.

With the Bank hoovering up gilts equivalent to those issued since the additional £200 billion in quantitative easing was announced, it will run out of firepower to support government spending within in months. Therefore, expectations will be high for an increase in the purchase target at the next meeting in mid-June.

8.42am BST

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Bank of England to delay its much-anticipated bank climate stress tests.

The central bank has concluded that UK banks have enough to deal with, without calculating how they are positioned to handle the climate emergency (a key concern for former governor Mark Carney).

“Recognizing current pressures on firms, and in light of the responses to the December 2019 Discussion Paper on the Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario, the PRC and FPC have agreed to postpone the launch of the exercise until at least mid-2021.

This delay reflects a desire to maintain the ambitious scope of the exercise, whilst giving firms enough time to invest sufficiently in their capabilities to allow them to deliver to a high standard.”

8.20am BST

The Bank’s new Financial Stability Report says UK households have entered the lockdown in a stronger position than before the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to substantial support including payment holidays on mortgages and credit cards.

However, the Bank warned that the sharp economic downturn would put pressure on personal finances and that it would have to keep a close eye on potential risks that may emerge once those payment holidays expire. That could include a fresh wave of customers attempting to refinance their debt.

8.12am BST

There is some good news.... the Bank of England is confident that Britain’s banks can ride out the Covid-19 pandemic, and handle a 14% plunge in GDP this year.

It says the banking sector is sufficiently capitalised to cover losses during the outbreak, especially as the BoE is providing more support to the sector.

Businesses and households will need to borrow to get through this period. We want banks and building societies to expand lending. We have tested the major UK banks. They are strong enough to keep lending, which will support the economy and limit losses to themselves.

We are offering more long-term funding to banks that increase their lending.

8.04am BST

Here’s a table outlining the Bank of England’s new Covid-19 scenario.

As you can see, it shows UK GDP shrinking 14% this year, business investment crumbling by 26%, household spending down 14%, and average earnings down 2%:

7.54am BST

The Bank of England has produced a 20-minute video, explaining today’s monetary policy decisions and its new scenario for how the UK economy will shrink this year:

7.48am BST

Reuters points out that the Bank of England is predicting the worst economic slump in centuries this year -- and a very strong recovery in 2021:

The Bank of England held off further stimulus measures but said it was ready to take fresh action to counter the coronavirus hammering which could cause the country’s biggest economic slump in over 300 years in 2020 before a bounceback in 2021.

The BoE said its Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at its all-time low of 0.1% and left its target for bond-buying, most of it British government debt, at £645bn.

Bank of England gives a big "V" to economists who think there'll be a lasting hit from the COVID-19 slump.

Illustrative scenario shows 14% drop in GDP in 2020, followed by a rise in 2021 of... 15%! pic.twitter.com/Wf5Z4Rp9Ds

7.45am BST

In another startling forecast, the Bank of England predicts that the global economy could contract by 20% this quarter.

It warns that the coronavirus pandemic, and the lockdown measures introduced to slow it, are hitting economic activity extremely hard:

The spread of the virus and the measures taken to protect public health have caused a substantial reduction in activity around the world. Survey indicators such as the output components of PMIs have fallen to record‑low levels since the start of the year, and suggest that many countries have experienced extremely sharp falls in activity.

Bank staff estimate that UK‑weighted world GDP declined by around 4% in Q1 and could fall by over 20% in Q2. World trade has also declined significantly, and is expected to contract by around twice as much as global GDP in 2020. While many major countries have introduced wage subsidy schemes to reduce job losses, unemployment has increased markedly around the world and many more employees are working less than usual.

7.34am BST

Despite the government’s efforts, the Bank of England predicts that unemployment will rise sharply in the next few months.

Its new Covid-19 scenario suggests the UK jobless rate could soon spike to 9% - up from 4% at present - even though the government is encouraging firms to furlough staff.

As activity has fallen, the number of people in work has dropped sharply. It is likely that the Government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) has materially reduced the number of redundancies. Early data suggest that applications for furlough have been received from 800,000 companies covering over six million jobs.

The number of people furloughed might be a little lower, though, as some could have more than one furloughed job. While the CJRS has significantly limited job losses, the flow of new Universal Credit benefit claims and early indicators of redundancies suggest that unemployment has risen sharply over the past couple of months. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9% in Q2.

7.24am BST

The Bank of England has forecast that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year.

It has drawn up a new scenario, showing how the Covid-19 pandemic will hurt growth.

The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world. Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.

The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 H1 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently. Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly.

Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path. CPI inflation is expected to fall further below the 2% target during the second half of this year, largely reflecting the weakness of demand.

7.11am BST

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Some early breaking news: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates at their record lows, at its policy meeting today.

The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April. Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.

Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased. According to the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel, companies’ sales are expected to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower.

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More than 20m Americans lost their jobs in April – and Friday’s report suggests there might be much more trouble ahead

• Jobs figures: April worst month since Great Depression

Friday was a dark day for the US economy. The labor department announced more than 20 million people lost their jobs in April as the coronavirus shut down much of the economy.

Here are five key takeaways from a report that will enter the history books as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

This was the #JobsReport everyone was fearing & for good reason: 20M jobs lost. For African Americans unemployment rose to 16.7% & a similar jump for Whites to 14.2%.

This gives a historically low ratio of 1.3. Of course that means it took a pandemic to get these rates closer. pic.twitter.com/XPIG57BpJi

Sometimes it's better to not post anything at all

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Joseph Gilgun and ne’er-do-well pals are back – and planning to rob a circus. Plus: is change afoot in Devs? Here’s what to watch this evening

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(New Deal)
With his fourth solo album the acclaimed producer faces down the confusion of modern life with intoxicating calm

Blake Mills has picked up Grammy nominations for his production work on Laura Marling’s Semper Femina, John Legend’s Darkness and Light and Perfume Genius’s No Shape. However, the fourth solo album by the 33-year old Californian former touring guitarist should turn the spotlight towards his own work. Mutable Set is intended as a “soundtrack to the emotional dissonance of modern life”. Themes range from precious people and experiences to disappointment and isolation, though this isn’t conventional singer-songwriter fare.

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On a cold morning on the last day of September, we flew into Spitsbergen, the western-most island of the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard. We were having rare sunny weather, so the pilot changed course a bit to give those of us on the right side of the plane a beautiful Svalbardian view.

We landed in the town of Longyearbyen, which is one of the few permanently populated places in Svalbard.



The moon you can see, big in that sky, was a permanent fixture for the first week of our journey. It never set, it just circled the sky, always low and big against the horizon. Then, with the new moon, it set -- and never came back again.

Our time in Longyearbyen was brief, but I did manage to pop over to the library :o).


The next morning, with our suitcases in hand and a stomach full of nerves, we went to the pier to board our new home, the Antigua.


Personally, I thought she looked pretty small for 40+ people. And for two weeks on the Arctic Ocean. And for not puking the entire time. What was I thinking? I kept repeating to myself. How am I going to do this? Why did I think this was a good idea? Is it a bad sign that I already feel queasy? I'll be fine. I'll be fine. I'll be fine! I'm going to die! I open myself to this adventure, goddammit!

(At least I'm not kitesurfing on a freezing cold day in the Arctic Ocean, like that bozo!) 


It was a rough few hours on the ship. I was anxious; I felt seasick. I kept crashing into things and spilling things. It was SO COLD, especially after the sun set, but once we were moving, I needed to stay out on deck in order to keep from puking. Then I puked anyway. It was not fun. I was scared. What if this was how I was going to feel for the next two weeks?

I stumbled and bumbled down to my cabin, put my head on my rocking pillow, and took a long nap. When I woke up, around 10pm, I didn't know it at the time, but I woke to a new state of being. I never got sick on the trip again.

That night, feeling world's better, I went to the kitchen and begged some food. A kind person warmed some up for me and I carried it out on deck, where I ate under the stars, surrounded by the noise of moving water. A bit later, I saw the northern lights for the first time in my life. I went on to see them so many times, on so many nights, that I lost count. I saw them from the deck of the Antigua, this beautiful ship that I grew to adore, and loved to call my home.

I've decided to post pictures from my trip, divided into themes. I haven't chosen all my themes yet or gotten particularly organized. But over the next few weeks, come here to learn about a number of things, including

The series airs Fridays at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET on Instagram

The post Russo Bros. Pizza Film School: Joe & Anthony Russo Launch Weekly IG Live Series appeared first on ComingSoon.net.

The series stars Eliza Taylor, Bob Morley and Lindsay Morgan

The post The Final Journey Begins in The 100 Season 7 Trailer appeared first on ComingSoon.net.

The musical remake of the '80s cult classic is set to hit digital platforms on Friday!

The post CS Interview: Josh Whitehouse on Playing American in Valley Girl appeared first on ComingSoon.net.

A new short story by Joy Wilkinson, "The Simple Things".

Doctors past and present from Doctor Who have rallied together to support the nation’s real-life heroes during The Big Night In, taking place on BBC One this Thursday from 7pm.

Over the years I’ve seen some writers who took the full time plunge express strong imposter syndrome and a sense of shame when going back to a day job. Sometimes it kills their desire to write because they feel like a failure. I don’t think biographies of writers emphasize how many famous writers had day… Continue reading You’re Not an Imposter if You Have a Dayjob and Write

As multiple states have moved to further restrict access to abortions during the pandemic, a powerful new dramatic film follows a 17-year-old girl as she travels from her small town in Pennsylvania to New York City to get an abortion without having to notify her parents. "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" director and writer Eliza Hittman joins us to discuss the making of the film, which is being distributed online while cinemas remain closed in most states due to the pandemic.

After New York and New Jersey, the next highest number of coronavirus infections per capita in the United States is in the Navajo Nation, the largest Indigenous reservation in the country. We go to Kayenta, Arizona, to speak with Robby Jones, a member of the Navajo Nation and the partner of one of those to die from the virus: 28-year-old Valentina Blackhorse, a beloved community leader who promoted Navajo culture and left behind a daughter named Poet.

We get an update from two doctors treating patients with the Navajo Nation, the largest Indigenous reservation in the country, which has been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Dr. Michelle Tom is a member of the Navajo Nation and a family physician treating COVID-19 patients at the Winslow Indian Health Care Center and Little Colorado Medical Center in northern Arizona near the Navajo reservation. In Gallup, New Mexico, Dr. Sriram Shamasunder is leading a medical volunteer group of 21 nurses and doctors from the University of California, San Francisco as part of the HEAL Initiative. He says the coronavirus hit harder on the Navajo Nation due to a "trajectory of an underfunded health system," and notes the Indian Health Service is funded at one-third the rate per capita as Medicare. "The level of inequity that you're seeing … it's part of this pattern."

As President Trump starts to reopen the country, Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer Laurie Garrett predicts the pandemic will last at least 36 months. Meanwhile, a top government vaccine specialist says he was forced from his job after he resisted the administration's promotion of untested treatments for COVID-19. Garrett predicted the pandemic. In an extended interview, she discusses what's next.

United States Postal Service (USPS) announced that it has named Louis DeJoy as its 75th Postmaster General and CEO. DeJoy will be replacing Megan Brennan, whom has been serving in the position since 2015, and will take over on June 15. The incoming USPS chief will be the fifth Postmaster General to come over from the private sector, going back to when the USPS, in 1971, became an independent establishment within the Executive Branch.

• Stoner
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The folks at Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft stores are at it again. They challenged bloggers to create holiday DIY’s using supplies from Jo-Ann, and based on a secret theme that would be shipped to us in the mail. Halloween is my favorite, so of course I was in! I was … Continue reading →

The folks at Jo-ann asked me to create a DIY project for the Thanksgiving holiday, and sent me a Jo-Ann gift card to buy supplies. This time the theme was “turkey tablescapes”. I decided early on that I wanted to come up with something that was both decorative & functional. … Continue reading →

I’m back with my third and final DIY for Jo-Ann Fabric & Craft’s Celebrate The Season. This time the theme was “fabulously festive”. These santa favor cups can not only be used to hold small treats, but you could also add tiny flags with names to use them as place … Continue reading →

I’m now one of the heads on the shelves. I rub my teeth together and instinctively shout “THAT’S A SPICY MEATBALL!”

Knock knock! Who's there? Lembas. Lembas who? Lembas in already, we're cold out here!

A white former police officer and his son were arrested on Thursday in Georgia and charged with murder in the shooting death of an unarmed black man, an incident that touched off a furor in the community and among civil rights activists nationwide.

In this edition of Middle East Matters, we continue our rolling coverage of the Covid-19 pandemic across the region. Jordan is flattening its coronavirus curve after a series of strict measures, including travel bans. We speak to Health Minister Saad Jaber, himself a doctor, about how he's managed the crisis. Also, deadly clashes erupt after hundreds take to the streets in northern Lebanon amid a crash in the local currency and a surge in food prices. 

North Korean state media on Wednesday made no mention of new appearances by leader Kim Jong Un, a day after intense international speculation over his health was sparked by media reports he was gravely ill after a cardiovascular procedure.