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Mini-budget unlikely as IMF satisfied with tax steps

• Hike in petroleum levy, imposition of GST on petroleum products not expected anytime soon
• Govt sees economic activity picking up next month due to stable rupee, lower policy rate
• Senate body points to issues in Islamic banking, fraudulent POS receipts, fake ATM notes
• 10pc levy on transport with Iran has left over 600 trucks stalled

ISLAMABAD: The Inter­national Monetary Fund (IMF) is reported to have expressed satisfaction over the increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio by nearly 1.5 percentage points, relieving the authorities from any push for additional tax measures through a mini-budget.

According to sources closely involved in ongoing discussions with the visiting IMF mission, the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) revenue collection target for the current fiscal year will remain unchanged at Rs12.97 trillion. Authorities have ruled out the need for additional taxes or a mini-budget, citing the IMF’s positive response.

Officials said that economic activity is expected to pick up by December in view of a stable exchange rate and a reduction in the State Bank’s policy rate, likely offsetting a tax shortfall of around Rs190 billion recorded in the first four months (July to October) of the fiscal year.

There would neither be any increase in the petroleum levy nor would general sales tax (GST) be imposed on petroleum products, the sources said after a meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Revenue presided over by PPP Senator Salim Mandviwalla.

They said the tax-to-GDP ratio had increased from 8.8pc to 10.3pc and the IMF was satisfied with this 1.5 percentage point improvement.

The sources reiterated the commitment given to the IMF that tax collection on agriculture income would start from the next fiscal year. They said that tax reforms were progressing and the draft Tax Laws Amendment Ordinance 2024 had been presented to the prime minister for approval. The ordinance contains a new family income tax return system and abolishes the concepts of non-filers and late filers.

The sources, however, hinted at tinkering with the Tajir Dost Scheme to effectively bring in traders into the tax net and said these were being discussed with the IMF mission during the ongoing meetings.

The IMF has been told that the FBR collected Rs12bn from retailers during the first quarter of 2024-25, although only 500,000 potential retailers were the target out of three million small shopkeepers.

‘Slow progress on Islamic banking’

Earlier, the Senate panel decided to call scholars of the Council of Islamic Ideology to have input on the working of Islamic banking operations in Pakistan, for which a special session would be arranged.

The central bank’s deputy governor told the panel that Riba was the main difference between conventional banking and Islamic banking.

Senator Farooq H. Naek pointed out that full implementation of Islamic banking was committed for 2027, but progress had been very slow. The SBP’s deputy governor emphasised the need for continued deliberation on Islamic banking and assured the committee that several banks were actively working towards compliance.

FBR Chairman Rashid Mehmood Langrial told the panel that FBR’s enforcement would be improved in the coming months after approval of a transformation plan, including enhancing the board’s operational expertise, organisational capacities and anti-smuggling measures.

Key discussions during the meeting included the contentious 10pc levy on transport and businesses between Pakistan and Iran, raised by Senator Manzoor Ahmad Kakar in a Senate session. The committee resolved to report to the house that the issue may be referred to the Standing Committee on Communications, noting that the levy, imposed with the federal government’s approval, did not pertain to the Federal Board of Revenue.

While FBR officials emphasised that this specific tax was not their responsibility, Senator Kakar raised concerns that Pakistani trucks were being unfairly taxed, with over 600 trucks currently parked due to the levy. The committee agreed to forward the matter to the Communications Committee for further deliberation.

The committee also discussed concerns raised by Senator Mohsin Aziz regarding the fee collected by FBR for point of sale (POS) services and its utilisation. The FBR chairman confirmed the introduction of a policy to penalise businesses that are issuing fake POS receipts, imposing fines of Rs500,000 and shutting down shops involved in such practices.

Senator Aziz highlighted weaknesses in enforcement, with some fake receipts circulating in the mar­ket, including a bill in Islamabad marked “tentative”. The FBR chairman acknowledged the issue and assured that enforcement mea­sures would be strengthened soon.

A key briefing by the SBP highlighted the performance of banking branches in smaller provinces, revealing that as of June 30, 2024, there were 3,334 banking branches operating in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, accounting for 20pc of the total nationwide branches. Additionally, 199 branches of microfinance banks were serving these regions, representing 13pc of the country’s total microfinance network.

Another pressing issue discussed was the problem of counterfeit currency dispensed from ATMs. Senator Kakar cited a case where a young man received fake Rs5,000 notes from an ATM. The CEO of a commercial bank assured the committee that security measures were being enhanced to address this issue.

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024





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Previous financial pledges on climate change yet to materialise, PM Shehbaz tells COP29 summit

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted on Wednesday that financial pledges made at the previous two United Nations’ annual climate summits — COP27 and COP28 — were yet to materialise.

He made the remarks during the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP29, that is being held in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku. The premier presented Pakistan’s case on the second and final day of the World Leaders Climate Action Summit.

Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, according to the Global Climate Risk Index. It has faced increasingly frequent and severe weather events, such as unprecedented floods, intense monsoon rains, devastating heat waves, rapid glacial melting and glacial lake outburst floods.

Addressing the summit, PM Shehbaz asserted that COP29 should “make this understanding loud and clear that we will have to fulfil those financial pledges” committed at COP27 and COP28.

“And yet, I think, those huge financial commitments have to be materialised.”

The prime minister said the event was aimed at understanding the “calamities which, unfortunately, some of the countries have already faced and some will if we do not act”.

At COP27 in 2022, which was also attended by PM Shehbaz, countries had adopted a hard-fought final agreement to set up a “loss and damage fund” to help poor countries battered by climate disasters.

At COP28 last year, then-caretaker premier Anwaarul Haq Kakar had called for immediately executing the $100 billion in commitments for climate finance.

According to the UN, around $700 million have been pledged so far for the loss and damage fund, with France, Italy, Germany and the UAE being the biggest contributors.

At COP29 today, PM Shehbaz also spoke about the devastating monsoon floods of 2022, highlighting they had resulted in 1,700 deaths, massive displacement, destruction of houses and crops, and $30 billion loss to the country’s economy.

He called on the international community “to take measures which are so important at this point in time to have a conducive environment” to combat climate change.

The prime minister stressed that Pakistan was one of the countries that “hardly contribute” to global emissions, yet it was vulnerable to climate change and listed as one of the “10 countries which can, God forbid, face this kind of devastation again”.

“My memories are still fresh,” he said, recalling a meeting with flood affectees in Balochistan, including a boy named Ikramullah who had “lost everything”.

“His entire village was erased from the face of the earth, his home was completely demolished, and his school was also submerged. And we had arranged his education [in] another part of Pakistan,” he said.

PM Shehbaz stated he would not want “other countries to face the plight Pakistan faced back in 2022”.

Describing Pakistan as a “resilient, hard-working and responsible nation”, the premier affirmed his country was “fully committed to being part of the global climate solutions”.

Concluding his speech, the prime minister expressed the hope that under Azerbaijan’s leadership, COP29 can transform into a “finance COP by restoring confidence in the pledging process and scaling up climate finance”.

“I strongly feel that climate finance must be grant-based and not add to the debt burden of vulnerable developing countries,” he said, reiterating his remarks from yesterday on the sidelines of the summit.

“Two years ago, I warned, and I warned at the top of my voice, that the future would never forgive our inaction. Today, I echo the same warning with greater urgency,” PM Shehbaz asserted.

‘We shouldn’t brave impact of emissions by others’

Referring to the 2015 Paris Agreement, PM Shehbaz said: “Ten years ago in Paris, we had failed to stop the rise in emissions and catastrophic global warming, and those pledges in Paris 10 years ago, which were made have yet to see the light of the day.”

“As the minus-one emitters, we should not brave the impact of emissions realised by others without even the tools to finance resilience,” he emphasised.

“Without climate justice, there can be no real resilience,” the prime minister asserted.

The premier further said Pakistan would “go through a renewable energy revolution”, noting that the country last year presented a “comprehensive National Adaptation Plan”.

He continued: “This year, we have developed our National Carbon Market Framework. But we cannot do it alone. Pakistan needs international support to deliver on its climate ambitions.”

“My government has taken concrete actions to deliver on its commitment of producing 60 per cent of all energy from green sources and shifting 30pc of our vehicles to EVs (electric vehicles) by the end of this decade,” he told the summit.

PM Shehbaz stated that developing countries would need an estimated $6.2 trillion by 2030 to implement less than half of their current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

“The same goes for adaption and loss and damage,” he added, recalling the efforts at COP27 led by then-climate change minister Sherry Rehman.

Early warning systems for all

Addressing the COP29 summit, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar highlighted the utility of early warning systems for climate-induced disasters and extended his gratitude to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for launching the ‘Early Warning for All’ initiative.

“Today, the threat is not limited to floods, we are facing rising temperatures, more intense and frequent heatwaves, and erratic rainfall patterns,” Dar said. “Early warning systems for various climate-induced hazards including floods, glacial lake outbursts, droughts and extreme heat are essential for resilience, not just for Pakistan but for all vulnerable nations worldwide,” he added.

The deputy PM thanked the UN Secretary-General for the early warning initiative, which “aims to protect every person on earth with an early warning system by 2027”.

Dar added that the threat of extreme heat emphasises the necessity of multi-hazard early warning systems, which he said were “critical to saving lives and supporting sustainable development in the face of climate adversity”.

“Despite our limited resources, Pakistan is committed to climate action and has set very ambitious goals,” the deputy PM said. “Our pledge to reduce projected greenhouse gas emissions by 50pc by 2030 comprises a 15pc reduction through national efforts and an additional 35pc contingent on international support.”

Dar named the Green Pakistan Project, an “electric vehicle policy”, a large-scale project to rehabilitate mangroves and implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) mass transit systems in Pakistan’s major cities.

“These efforts aim to fulfil our nationally determined contributions and to balance our global mitigation role with local adaptation needs,” Dar said. “However, we must acknowledge that national efforts alone are insufficient.”

The deputy PM highlighted that accessible climate finance is essential for Pakistan to meet these targets. “We urgently call on developed nations to honour their $100bn climate finance annual pledge and establish a new collective quantitative goal that reflects today’s needs with funding reaching the trillions,” he stated.

He added that this funding must be “accessible, grant-based and reflective of the historical responsibilities of industrialised nations”, adding that the burden “cannot rest solely on developing countries”.

“While Pakistan is ready to do its part, we look to the international community for support, particularly in accessing climate finance for early warning systems and climate resilience projects,” he said. “We need mechanisms that ensure easy, direct access to funds that can bolster national programmes rather than piloting isolated projects.”

Dar reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to “being part of the solution” to the shared climate crisis and stressed that through shared partnerships and support from global allies, “we can bridge the early warning gap, enhance resilience and build a safer, more sustainable future for generations to come”.

‘Debt cannot be new normal’

Speaking at a Pakistan-organised conference at COP29 yesterday, PM Shehbaz had said debt cannot become the “acceptable new normal” in climate financing.

He had explained that finan­c­ing in the form of loans pushes developing nations towards “mounting debt traps”, which he ref­erred to as “death traps”.

Speaking at Glaciers 2025: Actions for Glaciers, the prime minister had also linked humanity’s survival with the health of glaciers, saying Pakistan was ready to work with the world on the matter.

Participating world leaders and delegates pose for a group photo during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku on Nov 12, 2024. — AFP

PM Shehbaz also met with various world leaders on the sidelines of the summit, including UAE President Sheikh Moha­m­med bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as those from South and Central Asia.

Dozens of world leaders convened in Azerbaijan for COP29 but many big names skipped the UN climate talks where the impact of Donald Trump’s election victory was keenly felt.

US President Joe Biden, China’s President Xi Jinping, India’s PM Narendra Modi and France’s President Emmanuel Macron were among the G20 leaders missing the event.

Pakistan witnessed devastating floods during the 2022 monsoon season, induced by climate change, resulting in the loss of at least 1,700 lives.

With 33m people affected and swathes of agricultural land washed away, the damage incurred losses worth $30bn, according to government estimates.

In June 2024, a heat wave brought record-high temperatures, severely impacting public health and agriculture.





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