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Through the Back Door: Remaking the Immigration System via the Expected “Public-Charge” Rule

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Thu, 23 Aug 2018 11:11:59 -0400

A Trump administration “public-charge” rule expected to be unveiled soon could create the potential to significantly reshape family-based legal immigration to the United States—and reduce arrivals from Asia, Latin America, and Africa—by imposing a de facto financial test that 40 percent of the U.S. born themselves would fail, as this commentary explains.


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Leveraging the Potential of Home Visiting Programs to Serve Immigrant and Dual Language Learner Families

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Thu, 22 Aug 2019 10:48:18 -0400

Home visiting programs for young families are growing in popularity across the United States, and have demonstrated their effectiveness in supporting maternal health and child well-being. At the same time, more infants and toddlers are growing up in immigrant families and households where a language other than English is spoken. Why then are these children under-represented in these programs? This brief explores common barriers, ways to address them, and why it is important to do so.


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Health Insurance Coverage of Immigrants and Latinos in the Kansas City Metro Area

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Tue, 19 Nov 2019 10:26:37 -0500

Latinos and immigrants are at least twice as likely to lack health insurance coverage as the overall population in the Kansas City metropolitan area. This gap that has significant implications for the region, as Latinos and immigrants will form an ever-growing share of the area’s labor force and tax base amid anticipated declines in the native-born, non-Latino population.


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Barriers to COVID-19 Testing and Treatment: Immigrants without Health Coverage in the United States

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 15:58:10 -0400

As millions of U.S. workers lose jobs and the health insurance associated with them, Medicaid and similar programs are increasingly important for people seeking COVID-19 testing and treatment. Yet many low-income uninsured noncitizens, including green-card holders, are excluded from such programs because of their immigration status, as this fact sheet explores.


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Evaluating the Effect of U-500 Insulin Therapy on Glycemic Control in Veterans With Type 2 Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2015-01-01

Joseph A. Granata
Jan 1, 2015; 33:14-19
Feature Articles


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Effects of Glycemic Control on Diabetes Complications and on the Prevention of Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2004-10-01

Jay S. Skyler
Oct 1, 2004; 22:162-166
Feature Articles


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Medical Nutrition Therapy: A Key to Diabetes Management and Prevention

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2010-12-01

Sara F. Morris
Dec 1, 2010; 28:12-18
Feature Articles


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Integration of Clinical Psychology in the Comprehensive Diabetes Care Team

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2004-07-01

Steven B. Leichter
Jul 1, 2004; 22:129-131
The Business of Diabetes


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The Potential of Group Visits in Diabetes Care

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2008-04-01

Andrew M. Davis
Apr 1, 2008; 26:58-62
Feature Articles


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Diapression: An Integrated Model for Understanding the Experience of Individuals With Co-Occurring Diabetes and Depression

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2011-04-01

Paul Ciechanowski
Apr 1, 2011; 29:43-49
Feature Articles


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PROactive: A Sad Tale of Inappropriate Analysis and Unjustified Interpretation

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2006-04-01

Jay S. Skyler
Apr 1, 2006; 24:63-65
Commentary


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Interdisciplinary Team Care for Diabetic Patients by Primary Care Physicians, Advanced Practice Nurses, and Clinical Pharmacists

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2011-04-01

David Willens
Apr 1, 2011; 29:60-68
Feature Articles


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Insulin Strategies for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2002-01-01

Karen L. Herbst
Jan 1, 2002; 20:
Feature Articles


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Application of Adult-Learning Principles to Patient Instructions: A Usability Study for an Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Device

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2010-09-01

Gayle Lorenzi
Sep 1, 2010; 28:157-162
Bridges to Excellence


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Engaging Patients in Education for Self-Management in an Accountable Care Environment

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2011-07-01

Christine A. Beebe
Jul 1, 2011; 29:123-126
Practical Pointers


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Helping Patients Make and Sustain Healthy Changes: A Brief Introduction to Motivational Interviewing in Clinical Diabetes Care

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2008-10-01

Michele Heisler
Oct 1, 2008; 26:161-165
Practical Pointers


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Diabetes Self-Management in a Community Health Center: Improving Health Behaviors and Clinical Outcomes for Underserved Patients

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2008-01-01

Daren Anderson
Jan 1, 2008; 26:22-27
Bridges to Excellence


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2019 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2019-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2019; 37:11-34
Position Statements


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Perspectives in Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Review of Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2007-04-01

Jennifer M. Perkins
Apr 1, 2007; 25:57-62
Feature Articles


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Amylin Replacement With Pramlintide in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes: A Physiological Approach to Overcome Barriers With Insulin Therapy

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2002-07-01

John B. Buse
Jul 1, 2002; 20:
Feature Articles


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2016 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2016-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2016; 34:3-21
Position Statements


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Improving Patient Adherence

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2006-04-01

Alan M. Delamater
Apr 1, 2006; 24:71-77
Feature Articles


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2018 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2018-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2018; 36:14-37
Position Statements


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2017 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2017-01-01

American Diabetes Association
Jan 1, 2017; 35:5-26
Position Statements


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Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes--2015 Abridged for Primary Care Providers

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2015-04-01

American Diabetes Association
Apr 1, 2015; 33:97-111
Position Statements


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Microvascular and Macrovascular Complications of Diabetes

By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
Published On :: 2008-04-01

Michael J. Fowler
Apr 1, 2008; 26:77-82
Diabetes Foundation


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The Heroic Leadership Imperative

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Fri, 06 Mar 2020 15:34:27 +0000

Allison, S. T. & Goethals, G. R. (2020). The heroic leadership imperative: How leaders inspire and mobilize change. West Yorkshire: Emerald. Our next book describes a new principle that we call the heroic leadership imperative. We show how leaders who fulfill the imperative will inspire followers and initiate social change.   The imperative consists of … Continue reading The Heroic Leadership Imperative →


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  • Our latest books on HEROIC LEADERS
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COVID-19 Pandemic Turns Heroism Upside-Down

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Sat, 04 Apr 2020 03:12:21 +0000

By Scott T. Allison William James, who authored the first psychology texbook, was taken and moved by the quiet heroism in everyday working people. He noticed “the great fields of heroism lying round about” him. He was mesmerized by small, seemingly inconsequential everyday acts that, in effect, exemplified unsung heroism in everyone. Before the COVID-19 … Continue reading COVID-19 Pandemic Turns Heroism Upside-Down →


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  • Commentary and Analysis
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10 Examples of Heroism Arising From the COVID-19 Pandemic

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Sat, 04 Apr 2020 20:26:56 +0000

By Scott T. Allison In any tragedy or crisis, you will see many people standing out and stepping up to save lives and make the world a better place. These heroic individuals can range from leaders of nations to ordinary citizens who rise to the occasion to help others in need. During this COVID-19 pandemic, … Continue reading 10 Examples of Heroism Arising From the COVID-19 Pandemic →


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The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy

By blog.richmond.edu
Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 13:06:15 +0000

By Scott T. Allison Devs is the ideal TV mini-series for people to sink their teeth into, for many reasons: (1) It’s both science and science-fiction; (2) it’s brilliant mix of psychology, philosophy, religion, and technology; (3) it tantalizes us with the mysteries of love, life, death, time, and space; and (4) it features a … Continue reading The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy →


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  • Commentary and Analysis
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The Innovation Dilemma

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:09:00 +0000

"If it ain't broken, don't fix it."Sound advice, but limited to situations where "fixing it" only entails restoring past performance. In contrast, innovations entail substantive improvements over the past. Innovations are not just corrections of past mistakes, but progress towards a better future.

However, innovations often present a challenging dilemma to decision makers. Many decisions require choosing between options, one of which is both potentially better in the outcome but markedly more uncertain. In these situations the decision maker faces an "innovation dilemma."

The innovation dilemma arises in many contexts. Here are a few examples.

Technology. New and innovative technologies are often advocated because of their purported improvements on existing products or methods. However, what is new is usually less well-known and less widely tested than what is old. The range of possible adverse (or favorable) surprises of an innovative technology may exceed the range of surprise for a tried-and-true technology. The analyst who must choose between innovation and convention faces an innovation dilemma.

Investment. The economic investor faces an innovation dilemma when choosing between investing in a promising but unknown new start-up and investing in a well-known existing firm.

Auction. "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" is the motto of the risk-taker, while the risk-avoider responds: "Nothing ventured, nothing lost". The innovation dilemma is embedded in the choice between these two strategies. Consider for example the "winner's curse" in auction theory. You can make a financial bid for a valuable piece of property, which will be sold to the highest bidder. You have limited information about the other bidders and about the true value of the property. If you bid high you might win the auction but you might also pay more than the property is worth. Not bidding is risk-free because it avoids the purchase. The choice between a high bid and no bid is an innovation dilemma.

Employer decision. An employer must decide whether or not to replace a current satisfactory employee with a new candidate whose score on a standardized test was high. A high score reflects great ability. However, the score also contains a random element, so a high score may result from chance, and not reflect true ability. The innovation dilemma is embedded in the employer's choice between the current adequate employee and a high-scoring new candidate.

Natural resource exploitation. Permitting the extraction of offshore petroleum resources may be productive in terms of petroleum yield but may also present officials with significant uncertainty about environmental consequences.

Public health. Implementation of a large-scale immunization program may present policy officials with worries about uncertain side effects.

Agricultural policy. New technologies promise improved production efficiency or new consumer choices, but with uncertain benefits and costs and potential unanticipated adverse effects resulting from use of manufactured inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and machinery, and, more recently, genetically engineered seed varieties and information technology. (I am indebted to L. Joe Moffitt and Craig Osteen for these examples in natural resources, public health and agriculture.)

An essay like this one should - according to custom - end with a practical prescription: What to do about the innovation dilemma? You need to make a decision - a choice between options - and you face an innovation dilemma. How to choose? All I'll say is that the first step is to identify what you need to achieve from this decision. Recognizing the vast uncertainties which accompany the decision, choose the option which achieves the required outcome over the largest range of uncertain contingencies.

If you want more of an answer than that, consult your favorite decision theory (like info-gap theory, for instance).

I will conclude by drawing a parallel between the innovation dilemma and one of the oldest quandaries in political philosophy. In The Evolution of Political Thought C. Northcote Parkinson explains the historically recurring tension between freedom and equality.

Freedom. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that offers broad freedom for individuals to exploit their abilities, will also develop a wide spread of wealth, accomplishment, and status. Freedom enables individuals to explore, invent, discover, and create. Freedom is the recipe for innovation. Freedom induces both uncertainty and inequality.

Equality. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that strives for equality among its members can achieve this by enforcing conformity and by transferring wealth from rich to poor. The promise of a measure of equality is a guarantee of a measure of security, a personal and social safety net. Equality reduces both uncertainty and freedom.

The dilemma is that a life without freedom is hardly human, but freedom without security is the jungle. And life in the jungle, as Hobbs explained, in "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short".


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No-Failure Design and Disaster Recovery: Lessons from Fukushima

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:21:00 +0000

One of the striking aspects of the early stages of the nuclear accident at Fukushima-Daiichi last March was the nearly total absence of disaster recovery capability. For instance, while Japan is a super-power of robotic technology, the nuclear authorities had to import robots from France for probing the damaged nuclear plants. Fukushima can teach us an important lesson about technology.

The failure of critical technologies can be disastrous. The crash of a civilian airliner can cause hundreds of deaths. The meltdown of a nuclear reactor can release highly toxic isotopes. Failure of flood protection systems can result in vast death and damage. Society therefore insists that critical technologies be designed, operated and maintained to extremely high levels of reliability. We benefit from technology, but we also insist that the designers and operators "do their best" to protect us from their dangers.

Industries and government agencies who provide critical technologies almost invariably act in good faith for a range of reasons. Morality dictates responsible behavior, liability legislation establishes sanctions for irresponsible behavior, and economic or political self-interest makes continuous safe operation desirable.

The language of performance-optimization − not only doing our best, but also achieving the best − may tend to undermine the successful management of technological danger. A probability of severe failure of one in a million per device per year is exceedingly − and very reassuringly − small. When we honestly believe that we have designed and implemented a technology to have vanishingly small probability of catastrophe, we can honestly ignore the need for disaster recovery.

Or can we?

Let's contrast this with an ethos that is consistent with a thorough awareness of the potential for adverse surprise. We now acknowledge that our predictions are uncertain, perhaps highly uncertain on some specific points. We attempt to achieve very demanding outcomes − for instance vanishingly small probabilities of catastrophe − but we recognize that our ability to reliably calculate such small probabilities is compromised by the deficiency of our knowledge and understanding. We robustify ourselves against those deficiencies by choosing a design which would be acceptable over a wide range of deviations from our current best understanding. (This is called "robust-satisficing".) Not only does "vanishingly small probability of failure" still entail the possibility of failure, but our predictions of that probability may err.

Acknowledging the need for disaster recovery capability (DRC) is awkward and uncomfortable for designers and advocates of a technology. We would much rather believe that DRC is not needed, that we have in fact made catastrophe negligible. But let's not conflate good-faith attempts to deal with complex uncertainties, with guaranteed outcomes based on full knowledge. Our best models are in part wrong, so we robustify against the designer's bounded rationality. But robustness cannot guarantee success. The design and implementation of DRC is a necessary part of the design of any critical technology, and is consistent with the strategy of robust satisficing.

One final point: moral hazard and its dilemma. The design of any critical technology entails two distinct and essential elements: failure prevention and disaster recovery. What economists call a `moral hazard' exists since the failure prevention team might rely on the disaster-recovery team, and vice versa. Each team might, at least implicitly, depend on the capabilities of the other team, and thereby relinquish some of its own responsibility. Institutional provisions are needed to manage this conflict.

The alleviation of this moral hazard entails a dilemma. Considerations of failure prevention and disaster recovery must be combined in the design process. The design teams must be aware of each other, and even collaborate, because a single coherent system must emerge. But we don't want either team to relinquish any responsibility. On the one hand we want the failure prevention team to work as though there is no disaster recovery, and the disaster recovery team should presume that failures will occur. On the other hand, we want these teams to collaborate on the design.

This moral hazard and its dilemma do not obviate the need for both elements of the design. Fukushima has taught us an important lesson by highlighting the special challenge of high-risk critical technologies: design so failure cannot occur, and prepare to respond to the unanticipated.


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(Even) God is a Satisficer

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Fri, 12 Aug 2011 11:44:00 +0000

To 'satisfice' means "To decide on and pursue a course of action that will satisfy the minimum requirements necessary to achieve a particular goal." (Oxford English Dictionary). Herbert Simon (1978 Nobel Prize in Economics) was the first to use the term in this technical sense, which is an old alteration of the ordinary English word "satisfy". Simon wrote (Psychological Review, 63(2), 129-138 (1956)) "Evidently, organisms adapt well enough to 'satisfice'; they do not, in general, 'optimize'." Agents satisfice, according to Simon, due to limitation of their information, understanding, and cognitive or computational ability. These limitations, which Simon called "bounded rationality", force agents to look for solutions which are good enough, though not necessarily optimal. The optimum may exist but it cannot be known by the resource- and information-limited agent.

There is a deep psychological motivation for satisficing, as Barry Schwartz discusses in Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less. "When people have no choice, life is almost unbearable." But as the number and variety of choices grows, the challenge of deciding "no longer liberates, but debilitates. It might even be said to tyrannize." (p.2) "It is maximizers who suffer most in a culture that provides too many choices" (p.225) because their expectations cannot be met, they regret missed opportunities, worry about social comparison, and so on. Maximizers may acquire or achieve more than satisficers, but satisficers will tend to be happier.

Psychology is not the only realm in which satisficing finds its roots. Satisficing - as a decision strategy - has systemic or structural advantages that suggest its prevalence even in situations where the complexity of the human psyche is irrelevant. We will discuss an example from the behavior of animals.

Several years ago an ecological colleague of mine at the Technion, Prof. Yohay Carmel, posed the following question: Why do foraging animals move from one feeding site to another later than would seem to be suggested by strategies aimed at maximizing caloric intake? Of course, animals have many goals in addition to foraging. They must keep warm (or cool), evade predators, rest, reproduce, and so on. Many mathematical models of foraging by animals attempt to predict "patch residence times" (PRTs): how long the animal stays at one feeding patch before moving to the next one. A common conclusion is that patch residence times are under-predicted when the model assumes that the animal tries to maximize caloric intake. Models do exist which "patch up" the PRT paradox, but the quandary still exists.

Yohay and I wrote a paper in which we explored a satisficing - rather than maximizing - model for patch residence time. Here's the idea. The animal needs a critical amount of energy to survive until the next foraging session. More food might be nice, but it's not necessary for survival. The animal's foraging strategy must maximize the confidence in achieving the critical caloric intake. So maximization is taking place, but not maximization of the substantive "good" (calories) but rather maximization of the confidence (or reliability, or likelihood, but these are more technical terms) of meeting the survival requirement. We developed a very simple foraging model based on info-gap theory. The model predicts that PRTs for a large number of species - including invertebrates, birds and mammals - tended to be longer (and thus more realistic) than predicted by energy-maximizing models.

This conclusion - that satisficing predicts observed foraging times better than maximizing - is tentative and preliminary (like most scientific conclusions). Nonetheless, it seems to hold a grain of truth, and it suggests an interesting idea. Consider the following syllogism.

1. Evolution selects those traits that enhance the chance of survival.

2. Animals seem to have evolved strategies for foraging which satisfice (rather than maximize) the energy intake.

3. Hence satisficing seems to be competitively advantageous. Satisficing seems to be a better bet than maximizing.

Unlike my psychologist colleague Barry Schwartz, we are not talking about happiness or emotional satisfaction. We're talking about survival of dung flies or blue jays. It seems that aiming to do good enough, but not necessarily the best possible, is the way the world is made.

And this brings me to the suggestion that (even) God is a satisficer. The word "good" appears quite early in the Bible: in the 4th verse of the 1st chapter of Genesis, the very first book: "And God saw the light [that had just been created] that it was good...". At this point, when the world is just emerging out of tohu v'vohu (chaos), we should probably understand the word "good" as a binary category, as distinct from "bad" or "chaos". The meaning of "good" is subsequently refined through examples in the coming verses. God creates dry land and oceans and sees that it is good (1:10). Grass and fruit trees are seen to be good (1:12). The sun and moon are good (1:16-18). Swarming sea creatures, birds, and beasts are good (1:20-21, 25).

And now comes a real innovation. God reviews the entire creation and sees that it is very good (1:31). It turns out that goodness comes in degrees; it's not simply binary: good or bad. "Good" requires judgment; ethics is born. But what particularly interests me here is that God's handiwork isn't excellent. Shouldn't we expect the very best? I'll leave this question to the theologians, but it seems to me that God is a satisficer.


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Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Sun, 09 Oct 2011 11:51:00 +0000

Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




Decision problems.
Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

Solution strategies.
The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

"Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

"Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

Robustness and Probability

Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

Wrapping Up

The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. 


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I am a Believer

By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
Published On :: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 05:11:00 +0000


There are many things that I don't know. About the past: how my great-great-grandfather supported his family, how Charlemagne consolidated his imperial power, or how Rabbi Akiva became a scholar. About the future: whether I'll get that contract, how much the climate will change in the next 100 years, or when the next war will erupt. About why things are as they are: why stones fall and water freezes, or why people love or hate or don't give a damn, or why we are, period.

We reflect about questions like these, trying to answer them and to learn from them. For instance, we are interested in the relations between Charlemagne and his co-ruling brother Carloman. This can tell us about brothers, about emperors, and about power. We are interested in Akiva because he purportedly started studying at the age of 40, which tells us something about the indomitable human spirit.

We sometimes get to the bottom of things and understand the whys and ways of our world. We see patterns and discover laws of nature, or at least we tell stories of how things happen. Stones fall because it's their nature to seek the center of the world (Aristotle), or due to gravitational attraction (Newton), or because of mass-induced space warp (Einstein). Human history has its patterns, driven by the will to power of heroic leaders, or by the unfolding of truth and justice, or by God's hand in history.

We also think about thinking itself, as suggested by Rodin's Thinker. What is thinking (or what do we think it is)? Is thinking a physical process, like electrons whirling in our brain? Or does thinking involve something transcendental; maybe the soul whirling in the spheres? Each age has its answers.

We sometimes get stuck, and can't figure things out or get to the bottom of things. Sometimes we even realize that there is no "bottom", that each answer brings its own questions. As John Wheeler said, "We live on an island of knowledge surrounded by a sea of ignorance. As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance."

Sometimes we get stuck in an even subtler way that is very puzzling, and even disturbing. Any rational chain of thought must have a starting point. Any rational justification of that starting point must have its own starting point. In other words, any attempt to rationally justify rational thought can never be completed. Rational thought cannot justify itself, which is almost the same as saying that rational thought is not justified. Any specific rational argument - Einstein's cosmology or Piaget's psychology - is justified based on its premises (and evidence, and many other things). But Rational Thought, as a method, as a way of life and a core of civilization, cannot ultimately and unequivocally justify itself.

I believe that experience reflects reality, and that thought organizes experience to reveal the patterns of reality. The truth of this belief is, I believe, self evident and unavoidable. Just look around you. Flowers bloom anew each year. Planets swoop around with great regularity. We have learned enough about the world to change it, to control it, to benefit from it, even to greatly endanger our small planetary corner of it. I believe that rational thought is justified, but that's a belief, not a rational argument.

Rational thought, in its many different forms, is not only justified; it is unavoidable. We can't resist it. Moses saw the flaming bush and was both frightened and curious because it was not consumed (Exodus 3:1-3). He was drawn towards it despite his fear. The Unknown draws us irresistibly on an endless search for order and understanding. The Unknown drives us to search for knowledge, and the search is not fruitless. This I believe. 


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Review Article – Within a single lifetime: Recent writings on autism

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 20:23:00 +0000

AHP readers will be interested in a review article now available online from History of the Human Sciences “Within a single lifetime: Recent writings on autism.” Written by Gregory Hollin the piece reviews five recent books on autism.


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New Theory & Psychology: Early Critical Theory and Beck’s Cognitive Theory

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 12:21:00 +0000

Two articles in the most recent issue of Theory & Psychology may interest AHP readers. Full details below. “How lost and accomplished revolutions shaped psychology: Early Critical Theory (Frankfurt School), Wilhelm Reich, and Vygotsky,” by Gordana Jovanovi?. Abstract: On the occasion of recent centenaries of revolutions in Europe (1917, 1918–19), this article examines, within a … Continue reading New Theory & Psychology: Early Critical Theory and Beck’s Cognitive Theory →


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Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 14:43:00 +0000

A number of articles now in press at the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences will be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Uncovering the metaphysics of psychological warfare: The social science behind the Psychological Strategy Board’s operations planning, 1951–1953,” Gabrielle Kemmis. Abstract: In April 1951 president Harry S. Truman established … Continue reading Forthcoming in JHBS: Quêtelet on Deviance, McClelland on Leadership, Psychological Warfare, and More →


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Forthcoming HOPOS Special Issue on Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 18:20:00 +0000

Two pieces forthcoming in a special issue of HOPOS, the official journal of the International Society for the History of Philosophy of Science, will be of interest to AHP readers. The special issue, “Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie—in the Contexts of Historicism, Relativism, and Naturalism,” is guest-edited by Christian Damböck, Uljana Feest, and Martin Kusch. Full details … Continue reading Forthcoming HOPOS Special Issue on Descriptive Psychology and Völkerpsychologie →


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May HoP, including a Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 19:25:00 +0000

Photographs of John Watson (left) and Rosalie Rayner (right) via Ben Harris. The May 2020 issue of History of Psychology is now online. The issue includes a special section on “Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy.” Full details follow below. Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy“Journals, referees, and gatekeepers in the … Continue reading May HoP, including a Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy →


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Forthcoming in HHS: Homosexual Aversion Therapy, Comte on Organism-Environment Relationships

By ahp.apps01.yorku.ca
Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 19:47:00 +0000

Two forthcoming pieces in History of the Human Sciences may be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Cold War Pavlov: Homosexual aversion therapy in the 1960s,” by Kate Davison. Abstract: Homosexual aversion therapy enjoyed two brief but intense periods of clinical experimentation: between 1950 and 1962 in Czechoslovakia, and between 1962 and 1975 … Continue reading Forthcoming in HHS: Homosexual Aversion Therapy, Comte on Organism-Environment Relationships →


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This Essential Mineral Linked To COVID-19 Recovery

By www.spring.org.uk
Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 15:00:39 +0000

An essential mineral in the body have been linked to recovery of COVID-19 patients.

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COVID-19: Study Reveals A More Accurate Test

By www.spring.org.uk
Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 15:00:16 +0000

A better method for COVID-19 testing than nasal swabs.

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The Best Material For A Homemade COVID-19 Mask

By www.spring.org.uk
Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 15:00:21 +0000

The best type of fabric for a breathable but effective COVID-19 mask.

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How Technology Is Improving Safety On the Roads and Reducing Driving Anxiety

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Wed, 22 Jan 2020 03:24:56 +0000

Technology has changed a number of aspects of our everyday lives and has led to increased efficiency. But when it comes to driving, has it helped or hindered the process? In this article, we will be looking into some of the ways that technology has improved safety on our roads in the last 10 years. […]


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Online Therapy: A Powerful Tool in the Fight Against Covid 19

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Sat, 28 Mar 2020 13:19:21 +0000

The coronavirus pandemic is affecting billions of people around the world today. Coronavirus, now called covid 19, is a type of virus that is usually found in animals and is rarely transmitted to humans. According to reports from the World Health Organization, covid 19 likely originated from a seafood and meat market in Wuhan, China, […]


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Does Insurance Cover Therapy Costs in the United States?

By feedproxy.google.com
Published On :: Tue, 28 Apr 2020 21:12:18 +0000

Although mental health is just as important as physical health in promoting overall well-being, many insurance companies in the past did not agree with that viewpoint. This is shown by the fact that, for many years,  a large percentage of insurers provided better insurance coverage for physical issues than mental health issues. However, in 2008, […]


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