Flávio B. Gonçalves, Marcos O. Prates, Victor Hugo Lachos.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 51--70.

Abstract:
In this paper, we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture corresponds to one possible model within the symmetrical class of normal independent distributions. Naturally, the Gaussian model is one of the possibilities. This allows for a simultaneous analysis based on the posterior probability of each model. Inference is performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo—a Gibbs sampler with Metropolis–Hastings steps for a class of parameters. Simulated examples highlight the advantages of this approach compared to a segregated analysis based on arbitrarily chosen model selection criteria. Examples with real data are presented and an extension to censored linear regression is introduced and discussed.

Ivana Ilić, Vladica M. Veličković.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 1, 192--203.

Abstract:
Financial returns are known to be nonnormal and tend to have fat-tailed distribution. Also, the dependence of large values in a stochastic process is an important topic in risk, insurance and finance. In the presence of missing values, we deal with the asymptotic properties of a simple “median” estimator of the tail index based on random variables with the heavy-tailed distribution function and certain dependence among the extremes. Weak consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established. The estimator is a special case of a well-known estimator defined in Bacro and Brito [ Statistics & Decisions 3 (1993) 133–143]. The advantage of the estimator is its robustness against deviations and compared to Hill’s, it is less affected by the fluctuations related to the maximum of the sample or by the presence of outliers. Several examples are analyzed in order to support the proofs.

National Association of Wine Retailers Release Letter Delivered to Attorneys General and Alcohol Regulatory Chiefs Concerning Unconstitutional and Unenforceable Wine Shipping Bans

(PRWeb April 15, 2020)

Read the full story at https://www.prweb.com/releases/wine_retailers_seek_alcohol_shipping_compromise_with_18_states/prweb17050617.htm

Qiyang Han, Jon A. Wellner.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 4, 2286--2319.

Abstract:
We study the performance of the least squares estimator (LSE) in a general nonparametric regression model, when the errors are independent of the covariates but may only have a $p$th moment ($pgeq1$). In such a heavy-tailed regression setting, we show that if the model satisfies a standard “entropy condition” with exponent $alphain(0,2)$, then the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at a rate [mathcal{O}_{mathbf{P}}igl(n^{-frac{1}{2+alpha}}vee n^{-frac{1}{2}+frac{1}{2p}}igr).] Such a rate cannot be improved under the entropy condition alone. This rate quantifies both some positive and negative aspects of the LSE in a heavy-tailed regression setting. On the positive side, as long as the errors have $pgeq1+2/alpha$ moments, the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at the same rate as if the errors are Gaussian. On the negative side, if $p<1+2/alpha$, there are (many) hard models at any entropy level $alpha$ for which the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE converges at a strictly slower rate than other robust estimators. The validity of the above rate relies crucially on the independence of the covariates and the errors. In fact, the $L_{2}$ loss of the LSE can converge arbitrarily slowly when the independence fails. The key technical ingredient is a new multiplier inequality that gives sharp bounds for the “multiplier empirical process” associated with the LSE. We further give an application to the sparse linear regression model with heavy-tailed covariates and errors to demonstrate the scope of this new inequality.

Abdelaati Daouia, Stéphane Girard, Gilles Stupfler.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 531--556.

Abstract:
Expectiles define a least squares analogue of quantiles. They are determined by tail expectations rather than tail probabilities. For this reason and many other theoretical and practical merits, expectiles have recently received a lot of attention, especially in actuarial and financial risk management. Their estimation, however, typically requires to consider non-explicit asymmetric least squares estimates rather than the traditional order statistics used for quantile estimation. This makes the study of the tail expectile process a lot harder than that of the standard tail quantile process. Under the challenging model of heavy-tailed distributions, we derive joint weighted Gaussian approximations of the tail empirical expectile and quantile processes. We then use this powerful result to introduce and study new estimators of extreme expectiles and the standard quantile-based expected shortfall, as well as a novel expectile-based form of expected shortfall. Our estimators are built on general weighted combinations of both top order statistics and asymmetric least squares estimates. Some numerical simulations and applications to actuarial and financial data are provided.

Thomson (Family)

Yuan Ke, Stanislav Minsker, Zhao Ren, Qiang Sun, Wen-Xin Zhou.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 3, 454--471.

Abstract:
We provide a survey of recent results on covariance estimation for heavy-tailed distributions. By unifying ideas scattered in the literature, we propose user-friendly methods that facilitate practical implementation. Specifically, we introduce elementwise and spectrumwise truncation operators, as well as their $M$-estimator counterparts, to robustify the sample covariance matrix. Different from the classical notion of robustness that is characterized by the breakdown property, we focus on the tail robustness which is evidenced by the connection between nonasymptotic deviation and confidence level. The key insight is that estimators should adapt to the sample size, dimensionality and noise level to achieve optimal tradeoff between bias and robustness. Furthermore, to facilitate practical implementation, we propose data-driven procedures that automatically calibrate the tuning parameters. We demonstrate their applications to a series of structured models in high dimensions, including the bandable and low-rank covariance matrices and sparse precision matrices. Numerical studies lend strong support to the proposed methods.

The rendering builds on decades of data that dates back to the Apollo missions, which happened some fifty years ago

New scans revealed the figure's now-faded eyelashes and green backdrop, but her identity remains a mystery

Many retailers are eager to hear more details from the province about when and how they should reopen after weeks of being closed to the public. The next phase of recovery is expected to start Friday.

Retail stores in Fort William First Nation (FWFN) reopened to the general public on May 5, but they are under new operating requirements, the band council announced Friday. However, the residential area of the First Nation remains accessible only to people who live in the community.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials.

The post SOLIDWORKS Electrical Formula SAE Tutorial: Detailed Cabling appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Education Blog.

Close to 300 series at various frequencies for 60 countries have been updated.

Apple's upcoming reopening of some U.S.-based retail locations will be based around guidelines that the company developed for and refined at its open South Korea Apple Store.

Apple's next release in the AirPods family could be its long-rumored over-ear headphones, a leaker claims, with the larger personal audio accessory tipped to have the name "AirPods Studio."

Working with a higher performance CAD environment is the major criterion these days in the design community within SOLIDWORKS. Now we have a new option for opening the drawing within seconds and make changes in drawings to communicate with our

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The post Detailing Your Large Assembly Drawings Within Seconds in SOLIDWORKS – Detailing Mode appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Tech Blog.

IT’S not everyone who’s given the chance to design their own tartan so when the opportunity arose, Vixy Rae didn’t need to give it a second thought.

The Education Department outlines when and how schools must respond to reports of sexual assault and harassment under the Trump administration's interpretation of Title IX, the federal law that prohibits sex discrimination.

Three-fourths of US preschool-age children are in child care; many are not achieving recommended levels of physical activity. Daily physical activity is essential for motor and socioemotional development and for the prevention of obesity. Little is known about physical-activity barriers in child care.

Injury and school-readiness concerns may inhibit children’s physical activity in child care. Fixed playground equipment that meets licensing codes is unchallenging and uninteresting to children. Centers may cut time and space for gross motor play to address concerns about school readiness. (Read the full article)

Childhood obesity is already prevalent by preschool age, particularly among Latinos. Parents have tremendous influence on factors that contribute to childhood obesity (eg, diet, physical activity); thus, family plays a crucial role in pediatric obesity prevention.

This randomized controlled trial examined the effect of a behavioral intervention involving Latino-American parent–preschool-aged child dyads. The intervention resulted in reductions in absolute BMI across the 3-month study period, with patterns suggesting the largest effect for obese children. (Read the full article)

Children receive only half of recommended health care; disadvantaged children have higher risk of unmet needs. Practice coaching combined with quality improvement using rapid-cycle feedback has potential to help practices meet quality standards and improve pediatric health care delivery.

The Practice-tailored Facilitation Intervention led to large and sustained improvements in preventive service delivery, including substantial numbers of disadvantaged children, and in multiple simultaneous health care domains. Practice-tailored facilitation holds promise as a method to advance pediatric preventive care delivery. (Read the full article)

Curtailed sleep in children has been found to be associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk factors, including obesity. Few existing studies have examined measures of adiposity beyond BMI or have examined the effects of being chronically sleep curtailed.

In this cohort of children who had research-level measures of sleep, BMI, total fat mass, and fat mass distribution, we found that chronic sleep curtailment from infancy to age 7 years was associated with higher overall and central adiposity in mid-childhood. (Read the full article)

Although treatment programs for childhood obesity can demonstrate success, long-term outcomes have seldom been evaluated. The benefit of intervention when overweight is identified in a screening assessment and parental recognition of the problem is minimal is understudied.

A low-dose (sessions every 1–3 months), but long-term (2 years), family-based intervention was effective at reducing BMI compared with usual care in children recruited via a weight screening initiative in which many parents had been unaware their child was overweight. (Read the full article)

Canon is lifting the lid on the tech inside its upcoming EOS-1D X Mark III SLR. It's a fully pro, and fully loaded camera, with 20fps Raw imaging and 5.5K Raw video capture.

Payments Association of South Africa has warned consumers to be cautious when sharing personal information which can be used by fraudsters to make unauthorised debit orders.

Retail stores, corporate offices, and contact centers in China are closed through February 9 as the coronavirus spreads globally. Apple's online store will remain open, though.

Two young Bangladeshi women experienced great joy and release from the OM tailoring courses, bringing dignity, honour and financial gain to their communities and families.

The internal Windows 10 builds that leaked last week ended up revealing a brand new edition of the OS Microsoft is planning for power users.

At 2 p.m. on Saturday, May 9, Penn State will host its first virtual commencement. The ceremony will be livestreamed, and available internationally, at https://spring2020.commencement.psu.edu/.

Investec's Value Fund has for the first time since 2000 ditched any exposure to big four banking stocks and major retail groups.

The new website provides a 360-degree solution catering to the entire purchasing procedure which includes finance, insurance, exchange as well as accessories so that customers don't have to step out...

The details of the BS6 Vespa Elegante 149 are out. We believe the scooter will be launched in India soon.

According to RedSeer Consulting, the grocery market in the country is valued at over $500 billion, out of which online grocery currently has only 0.2% share, amounting to $1.2 billion.

Businesses that want to stay competitive are adopting a phygital model to address these demands through the holistic integration of offline and online retail.

Realising that sourcing within India helps cut costs, Uniqlo established an office in Bengaluru in 2016 to identify and work with partner factories in India. The company currently procures cotton fibre from India, as a result.

Some retailers are using technology to resolve customer queries, and offer customers a better shopping experience

Lalit Agarwal talks to Devika Singh about the infrastructural hurdles in tier III towns and beyond, the competition from marketplaces, and more.

Redmi Note 9 Pro Max first sale date has now been revealed. The phone was launched alongside the Redmi Note 9 Pro in India back in March. The sale of the Redmi Note 9 Pro began in the same month, but...

The new recharge plans launched by Reliance Jio offer 33 per cent more value over competition's annual Rs 2,399 plan, Reliance Jio said.

 Furnishing remitter details in pass book / pass sheet / account statement for credits received by customers through NEFT / NECS / EC

[Jessica Curtis and Adam Hillman, both Forecasting Advisors at SAS, were co-authors of this post] The world has been dramatically impacted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us are juggling a completely new lifestyle that was forced upon us overnight. As consumers find their way to a new normal, [...]

Retail forecasting through a pandemic was published on SAS Voices by Brittany Bullard

NEW CASTLE (Oct. 23, 2019) – “Remembering Farnhurst: Stories from the Delaware State Hospital, 1894-1920,” a new book by local anthropologist Katherine A. Dettwyler, details the early history of the Delaware State Hospital, now known as the Delaware Psychiatric Center. Dettwyler spent four years transcribing seven State Hospital ledgers that detailed the admission and clinical […]

The move to allow e-tailers to sell/deliver non-essential items was strongly opposed by small businesses led by The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).

Except Madhya Pradesh, no other state has so far acted upon the Centre’s advisory, leaving farmers, the intended beneficiaries of the move, high and dry.

A visit to any neighbourhood kirana shop will reveal piles of snacks, bakery goods, groceries, soaps and sanitisers that have been made in the immediate vicinity.

The Delaware Division of Public Health (DPH) is actively taking steps to prepare for community spread of the coronavirus disease known as COVID-19, as well as providing information to Delawareans about the actions they can take now to make preparations. To date, no one in Delaware has tested positive for COVID-19.

The upcoming 2020 Nissan Kicks will pack a hefty punch against its rival the Kia Seltos and the Hyundai Creta. The Kicks will be offered in four variants with a new 156hp turbo petrol.

After Vivo and Xiaomi, Samsung is also kicking off an online to offline sales strategy.