Amid calls for ongoing protests after violent clashes on Thursday, South Africa's High Commissioner to Mozambique Siphiwe Nyanda has declared "Maputo is almost under siege".

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Why a no-fly zone risks escalating the Ukraine conflict Expert comment NCapeling 13 March 2022

The US rejection of Poland’s offer to send fighter jets as a boost to Ukraine’s air defence shows just how uneasy nations are about direct combat with Russia.

The Pentagon’s decision to turn down the proposal by its fellow NATO member Poland to put Russian-made MiG-29 jets at its disposal demonstrates again how keen the US and allies are to avoid risking major confrontation with Russian forces.

The US Department of Defense says the offer to locate jets at bases in Germany was ‘not tenable’ as this risks flying into contested airspace over Ukraine – a non-NATO member – raising ‘serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance’ and echoing the continuing rejection of calls to implement no-fly zones (NFZs) as a way of easing the devastation being faced by trapped Ukraine civilians.

NFZs restrict any aircraft, including drones, from flying over a pre-defined region and can be used for both military and civilian purposes. But the implementation of NFZs is difficult to enforce and – most significantly – is unlikely to achieve the intended effect on the ground.

In conflict situations, they are usually implemented under the remit of United Nations (UN) peace support operations, requiring authorization under Article 42 of the UN Charter. This details that if all possible methods have proven ineffective in responding to a threat, countries ‘may take such action by air, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security’.

Protection but with limitations

NFZs provide both protection from attack and surveillance but do have limitations. They must be monitored and enforced which requires committing to fighter jet patrols with the explicit task of defending the area from the air by whatever means necessary.

This could mean jets firing upon Russian planes and drones so, if NATO allies and partners were to enforce a NFZ, it would represent an escalation of measures which is a step that would most likely provoke an unpredictable Vladimir Putin into further escalation – in short, it is highly likely to be seen as an act of war.

UK defence secretary Ben Wallace – among others – has repeatedly dispelled the idea, saying that enforcing NFZs would mean deploying ‘British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets’. In relation to moves such as the Polish jets, the Kremlin has warned that any countries offering airfields to Ukraine for attacks on Russia may be viewed as having entered the conflict.

There have only been three past instances of military NFZs. In Bosnia, as part of Operation Deny Flight from 1993-1995, a NFZ was enforced as part of a strategy which also including the provision of close air support and approved air strikes.

In Iraq, an NFZ endured for 12 years from 1991 and was succcesful in preventing Saddam Hussein from attacking Kurdish and Shia Muslim civilians. And in Libya in 2011, a NFZ was deployed to prevent the destruction of military infrastructure and the Libyan regime – although this quickly morphed into the provision of close air support.

So it is unclear just how successful NFZs are at providing protection. In Iraq and Libya, NFZ cover protection was provided but neither Saddam Hussein or Colonel Gaddafi were able to effectively target victims through their ground forces whereas, in Bosnia, Slobodan Milosevic infamously used ground troops to slaughter 8,000 Bosnian men and boys at Srebrenica.

Putin would still be able to continue to use both ground forces and artillery to assault Ukrainian cities with or without a NFZ – in fact, his sparse use of his Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) has been one of the surprising features of the war so far. Under a NFZ, missile attacks could also continue, there is nothing in the record of no-fly zones to suggest the provision of safe areas for non-combatants would work.

And NFZs have only been successful against vastly inferior forces such as in Iraq, Bosnia, and Libya. But Russia has an air force second only in size to the US and has a vast range of defences including the potent S-400 Triumf at its disposal. Not only would an NFZ be ineffective, it might also not be possible to enforce without risking significant losses to the peace operations force.

It is due to a combination of these reasons that NFZs have not been used more in previous conflicts. The most recent consideration for a NFZ was in Syria but President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian forces, protected by Russian air cover, could still have targeted their intended victims despite air policing so a NFZ was not used.

In the long-term, under the terms of a ceasefire agreement, it may be possible to include a NFZ under a UN or joint OSCE-UN peace terms. However, the forces involved should exclude NATO allies and partners or any states with Russian alliances to avoid further conflict.

This leaves few suitable countries with the capacity, willingness, and political stance to be called on. Two of the world’s most militarily capable states – China and India – abstained in the Uniting for Peace vote in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Whether another willing state with the military capability – such as a Gulf state – could be considered acceptable to all sides remains to be tested.

Notable successes with SAMs

Many military commentators also note that currently Ukrainian forces are having notable success without jets, downing Russian aircraft using sophisticated surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) such as Stinger and Javelin, and NATO countries continue to supply those in their thousands.

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U.S. president-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and advised him not to escalate the Ukraine war, a source familiar with the conversation said, but the Kremlin denied the two had spoken.

This is the 17th installment of The Rationalist, my column for the Times of India.

One of my favourite English words comes from chess. If it is your turn to move, but any move you make makes your position worse, you are in ‘Zugzwang’. Narendra Modi was in zugzwang after the Pulwama attacks a few days ago—as any Indian prime minister in his place would have been.

An Indian PM, after an attack for which Pakistan is held responsible, has only unsavoury choices in front of him. He is pulled in two opposite directions. One, strategy dictates that he must not escalate. Two, politics dictates that he must.

Let’s unpack that. First, consider the strategic imperatives. Ever since both India and Pakistan became nuclear powers, a conventional war has become next to impossible because of the threat of a nuclear war. If India escalates beyond a point, Pakistan might bring their nuclear weapons into play. Even a limited nuclear war could cause millions of casualties and devastate our economy. Thus, no matter what the provocation, India needs to calibrate its response so that the Pakistan doesn’t take it all the way.

It’s impossible to predict what actions Pakistan might view as sufficient provocation, so India has tended to play it safe. Don’t capture territory, don’t attack military assets, don’t kill civilians. In other words, surgical strikes on alleged terrorist camps is the most we can do.

Given that Pakistan knows that it is irrational for India to react, and our leaders tend to be rational, they can ‘bleed us with a thousand cuts’, as their doctrine states, with impunity. Both in 2001, when our parliament was attacked and the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee was PM, and in 2008, when Mumbai was attacked and the Congress’s Manmohan Singh was PM, our leaders considered all the options on the table—but were forced to do nothing.

But is doing nothing an option in an election year?

Leave strategy aside and turn to politics. India has been attacked. Forty soldiers have been killed, and the nation is traumatised and baying for blood. It is now politically impossible to not retaliate—especially for a PM who has criticized his predecessor for being weak, and portrayed himself as a 56-inch-chested man of action.

I have no doubt that Modi is a rational man, and knows the possible consequences of escalation. But he also knows the possible consequences of not escalating—he could dilute his brand and lose the elections. Thus, he is forced to act. And after he acts, his Pakistan counterpart will face the same domestic pressure to retaliate, and will have to attack back. And so on till my home in Versova is swallowed up by a nuclear crater, right?

Well, not exactly. There is a way to resolve this paradox. India and Pakistan can both escalate, not via military actions, but via optics.

Modi and Imran Khan, who you’d expect to feel like the loneliest men on earth right now, can find sweet company in each other. Their incentives are aligned. Neither man wants this to turn into a full-fledged war. Both men want to appear macho in front of their domestic constituencies. Both men are masters at building narratives, and have a pliant media that will help them.

Thus, India can carry out a surgical strike and claim it destroyed a camp, killed terrorists, and forced Pakistan to return a braveheart prisoner of war. Pakistan can say India merely destroyed two trees plus a rock, and claim the high moral ground by returning the prisoner after giving him good masala tea. A benign military equilibrium is maintained, and both men come out looking like strong leaders: a win-win game for the PMs that avoids a lose-lose game for their nations. They can give themselves a high-five in private when they meet next, and Imran can whisper to Modi, “You’re a good spinner, bro.”

There is one problem here, though: what if the optics don’t work?

If Modi feels that his public is too sceptical and he needs to do more, he might feel forced to resort to actual military escalation. The fog of politics might obscure the possible consequences. If the resultant Indian military action causes serious damage, Pakistan will have to respond in kind. In the chain of events that then begins, with body bags piling up, neither man may be able to back down. They could end up as prisoners of circumstance—and so could we.

***

Also check out:

Why Modi Must Learn to Play the Game of Chicken With Pakistan—Amit Varma
The Two Pakistans—Episode 79 of The Seen and the Unseen
India in the Nuclear Age—Episode 80 of The Seen and the Unseen

The India Uncut Blog © 2010 Amit Varma. All rights reserved.
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Nairobi — A prominent human rights group is calling for the deployment of peacekeepers in Sudan, following a recent wave of attacks on civilians in Al Jazirah state widely blamed on the Rapid Support Forces, one of the warring sides in the country’s ongoing conflict. Human Rights Watch says the situation has become so grim that a mission is needed to protect the population.  According to a local pro-democracy group, the Wad Madani Resistance Committee, 169 people have been killed since the violence started in southeastern Jazirah state on Oct. 20.   The attacks began after a commander for the Rapid Support Forces defected and joined the Sudanese army. Rights groups report that in response, RSF forces entered villages and towns in the area where the commander was from and carried out targeted killings and abuse.   Laetitia Bader, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Africa division, said the violations have added more problems for a population reeling from more than 18 months of war.   "Sudanese women's rights groups have been documenting cases of sexual violence against women and girls in these towns and villages. And we're talking here about over 30 towns and villages which have been attacked in recent weeks, and these attacks are ongoing,” Bader said. “It led to massive displacement of the civilian population in an area where people had already fled to and from. So it's just adding to the layers of suffering."  The RSF has denied attacking communities in Jazirah state and has accused Sudanese forces of arming local communities.   The RSF and Sudan’s military have been at war since April of last year. Rival generals lead the parties and are locked in a power struggle.  Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch and other observers are calling for the deployment of peacekeepers to Jazirah and other parts of Sudan, in hopes of protecting civilians.   Getting a presence on the ground could deter further attacks and help monitor humanitarian obstruction, Bader said, and also play a role in bolstering local cease-fire efforts and efforts by emergency response teams to provide assistance.  “Right now the problem is that what is happening at the local level cannot act alone," Bader added.  Ahmed Hashi, a Horn of Africa political and security commentator, said troops are needed, and strong action must be taken against the leaders of the warring groups.   "There is a need to send at least 50,000 United Nations soldiers. There is a need to take the criminal generals to the International Criminal Court and issue a warrant for their arrest,” Hashi said. “It is important for the United Nations to put its foot down on conflicts because they are going to metastasize into a massive humanitarian catastrophe."  In a report issued last month, the office of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed shock at the human rights violations often witnessed in Sudan’s western Darfur region being repeated in the Jazirah area.  The United Nations Security Council is slated to discuss the report on Sudan later this month.

Israel’s counterattacks on Iran underscore high stakes in Middle East.

Everything is at stake. Everything is at stake with nuclear weapons. While working as a nuclear war planner for the Kennedy administration, Daniel Ellsberg was shown a document calculating that a U.S. nuclear attack on communist countries would result in 600 million dead. As he put it later: “A hundred Holocausts.” That was in 1961. […]

The United Nations continues to be virtually paralyzed – and remains politically impotent amidst two raging conflicts—as Russia and Israel keep defying the world body. The killings of civilians and the destruction of cities, particularly by Israel, are devastating and continue despite repeated warnings from the UN, its humanitarian agencies, the International Criminal Court (ICC), […]

Kremlin denies Putin spoke with Trump over de-escalation in Ukraine

During a fight between two male mice, one will often run to a female mouse to distract their aggressor, a bait-and-switch strategy that could help abate social conflicts

Pilocytic astrocytomas are the most common pediatric brain tumors, typically presenting as low-grade neoplasms. We report two cases of pilocytic astrocytoma with atypical tumor progression. Case 1 involves a 12-yr-old boy with an unresectable suprasellar tumor, negative for BRAF rearrangement but harboring a BRAF p.V600E mutation. He experienced tumor size reduction and stable disease following dabrafenib treatment. Case 2 describes a 6-yr-old boy with a thalamic tumor that underwent multiple resections, with no actionable driver detected using targeted next-generation sequencing. Whole-genome and RNA-seq analysis identified an internal tandem duplication in FGFR1 and RAS pathway activation. Future management options include FGFR1 inhibitors. These cases demonstrate the importance of escalating molecular diagnostics for pediatric brain cancer, advocating for early reflexing to integrative whole-genome sequencing and transcriptomic profiling when targeted panels are uninformative. Identifying molecular drivers can significantly impact treatment decisions and improve patient outcomes.

HONG KONG — China's National Health Commission (NHC) published its first set of guidelines to standardise the diagnosis and treatment of obesity, with more than half of China's adults already overweight and obese, and the rate expected to keep rising.  The guidelines, made public on October 17, come as China experiences an upward morbidity trend of its overweight and obese population. The rate of overweight or obese people could reach 65.3 per cent by 2030, the NHC said.   "Obesity has become a major public health issue in China, ranking as the sixth leading risk factor for death and disability in the country," the guidelines said. China is facing a twin challenge that feeds its weight problem: In a modernising economy underpinned by technological innovation, more jobs have become static or desk-bound, while a prolonged slowdown in growth is forcing people to adopt cheaper, unhealthy diets.

In a recent study, researchers from Helmholtz Munich and Augsburg University Hospital demonstrated that nocturnal heat significantly raises the risk of stroke.

Nile Therapeutics Completes Dose Escalation in Ongoing Phase II Study

US President-elect Donald Trump urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to avoid any escalation in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine in a recent phone call.

A tram was set on fire in Amsterdam as tensions escalate following violence targeting Israeli soccer fans. Police investigate the unrest.

A day after India’s announcement, Beijing says a resolution has been reached over “relevant matters” on China-India border

It is a familiar situation: a compelling discussion develops on Tw­­itter, Facebook or Instagram - it could be about any topic - but instead of working constructively towards a common solution, the tone becomes increasingly aggressive. The rift between the differing opinions grows ever larger. Often, intercultural differences and lack of understanding are the root causes of the conflict. An international research team led by the University of Göttingen now wants to develop a "moderator" using artificial intelligence (AI) that can recognise hate messages in social media and intervene to de-escalate the situation. The Volkswagen Foundation will fund the project for four years from April 2021 with a total of around 1.5 million euros.

There has been a growing change in the style of communication in social media in recent years. This is particularly noticeable when it comes to questions of cultural identity. There is increasing conflict: users become emotional and attack each other; always anxious to emphasise what divides rather than what they have in common. A constructive exchange of information, facts and arguments takes place to a very limited extent. This leads to the well-known phenomena of filter bubbles and echo chambers in social media.

the Chinese coast guard using water cannons against Philippine vessels, further escalating tensions.

IEEE Computer Society

Donald Trumps’s representativessaid he also expressed an interest in further conversations to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.”

West Asia needs the intervention of major world powers for peace 

Iran should show strategic restraint; and the world should rein in Israel

In August this year, petroleum exports fell 37 per cent to $5.95 billion

The Israeli military cited continuous Iranian attacks from multiple fronts since October 7, affirming Israel’s right to retaliate

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Explaining why online learning has changed the education scenario, the Indian-origin economist said that with classes going online, someone in India can now take a course at MIT.

The OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría called on the governments of steel-producing economies to address the root causes of today’s steel crisis through multilateral approaches, and in particular through the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity.