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Why The Insurgency in Northern Mozambique Has Got Worse

1 April 2020

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme
Two attacks on towns in northern Mozambique by suspected jihadists point to a rapidly deteriorating security crisis.

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Macomia, Cabo Delgado, Northern Mozambique. Photo by EMIDIO JOSINE/AFP via Getty Images.

On March 23 to 24, the centre of Mocimboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province was occupied by up to 40 “jihadists”, who targeted government facilities, including a barracks, and brandished banners of affiliation to the so-called Islamic State.

On March 25, suspected jihadists raided the town of Quissanga and destroyed the district police headquarters. They too carried an Islamic State flag. Twenty to 30 members of Mozambique’s security forces were killed in both attacks.

Mocimboa da Praia is just south of the Afungi Peninsula, the location of gas projects worth $60- billion. Mocimboa was briefly occupied in late 2017, during attacks claimed by a group known as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama (or al-Sunnah) that marked the start of a brutal low-intensity conflict, with widespread human rights abuses and attacks on civilians.

Up to 1,000 people have now been killed and 100,000 displaced. More recently, The Islamic State Central Africa Province (Iscap), affiliated with the Islamic State group, has claimed responsibility for the attacks. Video and photos of these most recent events, along with the testimony of frightened residents and overstretched government officials, suggest a shift of strategy by the insurgents.

There seems to have been an effort to avoid harming civilians, to win hearts and minds by redistributing stolen food, medicine and fuel to “loyal” residents, and to direct attacks on the state and its symbols, such as police stations and military barracks. It is difficult from a distance to assess if there was any genuine pleasure over these attacks among local people; while residents in both towns that did not flee seemed to welcome the attackers, this may well have been out of fear that the government is currently unable to guarantee their security.

These attacks also indicate that the jihadist-linked insurgents are growing in confidence. They are confronting government security forces with little appetite for fighting. The Mozambican government has been expecting setbacks like those of Mocimboa and Quissanga — its forces are demoralised and many commanders exhausted or corrupted by an emerging war economy. Jihadists are also taking tactical advantage before a reformed and more effective government counterinsurgency effort is introduced in response.

President Filipe Nyusi, inaugurated in January for his second term, has made this crisis his prime focus and has become the de-facto minister of defence.

Military reform and the role of private military companies

But there is no quick fix. Most importantly, the Mozambican military and security forces need to be restructured. They were unable to win the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), even with international support, and have not improved in capacity or conduct since. They now face a complex, multilayered and asymmetrical conflict, mostly drawing upon local and regional grievances and networks but increasingly also attracting some limited encouragement and advice from further afield.

Nyusi will need to build-up trusted relationships in the military in the way he has successfully done with parts of the intelligence community. The Mozambican government has already reached out to international expertise — though not necessarily the right kind. The founder of the Blackwater private military company, Erik Prince, supplied two helicopters and support crew for the Mozambican military in mid-2019, before being replaced by some 170 Russian privateers linked to the Wagner Group.

The Wagner contingent arrived in September 2019 at Nacala airport with trucks, drones and a Mi-17 helicopter gunship, then deployed into the combat zone of northern Cabo Delgado. Setbacks, including at least two dead Russians, forced a tactical fallback to Nacala, though a new effort is reported to have been underway since late February 2020.

The Mozambican government is also considering a number of proposals from other private military companies. Maputo needs to consider these carefully; Israeli or Gulf State involvement in any form might exasperate rather than alleviate this crisis.

The Tanzanian connection

But market-led security and military providers will not end this insurgency. Nor will the engagement of states such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom or Angola, all of which have made their own offers of support. What would significantly make a difference is much closer to home: serious Tanzanian engagement.

This insurgency is concentrated in districts bordering Tanzania and there is clear-cut intelligence of connections into Tanzania and beyond. Swahili is also a lingua franca for the jihadists, connecting them up the East African coast, and into eastern Congo and elsewhere.

It is puzzling, given the deep shared history between Tanzania and Mozambique, that the bilateral relationship is as patchy as it is today: during the liberation struggle (1965-1974) against the Portuguese, Mozambique’s ruling party Frelimo maintained rear bases in Tanzania, and Nyusi was educated there.

Conspiracy theories circulate that Tanzania has encouraged the Cabo Delgado insurgency to weaken its neighbour, or at least displace radicalised individuals from Tanzanian soil into Mozambique.

President John Magafuli of Tanzania did not attend the January inauguration of Nyusi. It has become urgent that Magafuli (who is also the current chair of the regional body, the Southern African Development Community) and Nyusi meet face-to-face to map out improved intelligence sharing and a joint strategy to respond to an emerging regional threat.

Southern Africa is locking down because of Covid-19, which will distract the government’s ability to focus fully on this crisis and create a perfect moment for the infant insurgency in Cabo Delgado to grow. More military setbacks should be expected in coming months.

But the Mozambican government can still contain and prevail if it seriously reforms its military, builds strong alliances with its regional neighbours (especially Tanzania), chooses its private security contractors and international partnerships wisely, and backs military efforts with better intelligence and developmental interventions that offer alternative pathways to potential recruits.

But despite Maputo’s hope that significant progress will be made over the coming year, and the setting up of a presidential task force to evaluate progress and intelligence, it is likely that Mozambique and its partners will need to prepare themselves for a drawn-out struggle.

This article originally appeared in the Mail & Guardian




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Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar
Natasha Kimani, Academy Associate, Chatham House; Head of Partnerships and Programmes, Shujaaz Inc.
Chair: Tighisti Amare, Assistant Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
While gender equality was enshrined in Kenyan law under the 2010 constitution, gender-based marginalization remains a significant issue across all levels of society. The advent of devolution in 2013 raised hopes of enhanced gender awareness in policymaking and budgeting, with the 47 newly instituted county governments expected to tackle the dynamics of inequality close to home, but implementation has so far failed to match this initial promise. As Kenya approaches the tenth anniversary of the constitution, and with the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the challenges of gender inequality into sharper relief, it is critical to ensure that constitutional pathways are followed with the requisite level of urgency, commitment and investment to address entrenched gender issues.
 
This event, which will launch the report, Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya, will assess the current status of efforts to devolve and adopt gender-responsive budgeting and decision-making in Kenya, and the priorities and potential future avenues to tackle the implementation gap.
 
This event will be held on the record.

To express your interest in attending, please follow this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Deletion of fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) in the mouse liver changes the metabolic landscape by increasing the expression of PPAR{alpha}-regulated genes [Lipids]

Fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) is highly expressed in the liver, small intestine, and kidney, where it functions in both the transport of exogenous long-chain fatty acids and the activation of very-long-chain fatty acids. Here, using a murine model, we investigated the phenotypic impacts of deleting FATP2, followed by a transcriptomic analysis using unbiased RNA-Seq to identify concomitant changes in the liver transcriptome. WT and FATP2-null (Fatp2−/−) mice (5 weeks) were maintained on a standard chow diet for 6 weeks. The Fatp2−/− mice had reduced weight gain, lowered serum triglyceride, and increased serum cholesterol levels and attenuated dietary fatty acid absorption. Transcriptomic analysis of the liver revealed 258 differentially expressed genes in male Fatp2−/− mice and a total of 91 in female Fatp2−/− mice. These genes mapped to the following gene ontology categories: fatty acid degradation, peroxisome biogenesis, fatty acid synthesis, and retinol and arachidonic acid metabolism. Targeted RT-quantitative PCR verified the altered expression of selected genes. Of note, most of the genes with increased expression were known to be regulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor α (PPARα), suggesting that FATP2 activity is linked to a PPARα-specific proximal ligand. Targeted metabolomic experiments in the Fatp2−/− liver revealed increases of total C16:0, C16:1, and C18:1 fatty acids; increases in lipoxin A4 and prostaglandin J2; and a decrease in 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid. We conclude that the expression of FATP2 in the liver broadly affects the metabolic landscape through PPARα, indicating that FATP2 provides an important role in liver lipid metabolism through its transport or activation activities.




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Phosphoproteomic characterization of the signaling network resulting from activation of the chemokine receptor CCR2 [Genomics and Proteomics]

Leukocyte recruitment is a universal feature of tissue inflammation and regulated by the interactions of chemokines with their G protein–coupled receptors. Activation of CC chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2) by its cognate chemokine ligands, including CC chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2), plays a central role in recruitment of monocytes in several inflammatory diseases. In this study, we used phosphoproteomics to conduct an unbiased characterization of the signaling network resulting from CCL2 activation of CCR2. Using data-independent acquisition MS analysis, we quantified both the proteome and phosphoproteome in FlpIn-HEK293T cells stably expressing CCR2 at six time points after activation with CCL2. Differential expression analysis identified 699 significantly regulated phosphorylation sites on 441 proteins. As expected, many of these proteins are known to participate in canonical signal transduction pathways and in the regulation of actin cytoskeleton dynamics, including numerous guanine nucleotide exchange factors and GTPase-activating proteins. Moreover, we identified regulated phosphorylation sites in numerous proteins that function in the nucleus, including several constituents of the nuclear pore complex. The results of this study provide an unprecedented level of detail of CCR2 signaling and identify potential targets for regulation of CCR2 function.




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Correction: Graph Algorithms for Condensing and Consolidating Gene Set Analysis Results. [Additions and Corrections]




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N-glycosylation Site Analysis Reveals Sex-related Differences in Protein N-glycosylation in the Rice Brown Planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) [Research]

Glycosylation is a common modification of proteins and critical for a wide range of biological processes. Differences in protein glycosylation between sexes have already been observed in humans, nematodes and trematodes, and have recently also been reported in the rice pest insect Nilaparvata lugens. Although protein N-glycosylation in insects is nowadays of high interest because of its potential for exploitation in pest control strategies, the functionality of differential N-glycosylation between sexes is yet unknown. In this study, therefore, the occurrence and role of sex-related protein N-glycosylation in insects were examined. A comprehensive investigation of the N-glycosylation sites from the adult stages of N. lugens was conducted, allowing a qualitative and quantitative comparison between sexes at the glycopeptide level. N-glycopeptide enrichment via lectin capturing using the high mannose/paucimannose-binding lectin Concanavalin A, or the Rhizoctonia solani agglutinin which interacts with complex N-glycans, resulted in the identification of over 1300 N-glycosylation sites derived from over 600 glycoproteins. Comparison of these N-glycopeptides revealed striking differences in protein N-glycosylation between sexes. Male- and female-specific N-glycosylation sites were identified, and some of these sex-specific N-glycosylation sites were shown to be derived from proteins with a putative role in insect reproduction. In addition, differential glycan composition between males and females was observed for proteins shared across sexes. Both lectin blotting experiments as well as transcript expression analyses with complete insects and insect tissues confirmed the observed differences in N-glycosylation of proteins between sexes. In conclusion, this study provides further evidence for protein N-glycosylation to be sex-related in insects. Furthermore, original data on N-glycosylation sites of N. lugens adults are presented, providing novel insights into planthopper's biology and information for future biological pest control strategies.




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Discovery of Species-unique Peptide Biomarkers of Bacterial Pathogens by Tandem Mass Spectrometry-based Proteotyping [Research]

Mass spectrometry (MS) and proteomics offer comprehensive characterization and identification of microorganisms and discovery of protein biomarkers that are applicable for diagnostics of infectious diseases. The use of biomarkers for diagnostics is widely applied in the clinic and the use of peptide biomarkers is increasingly being investigated for applications in the clinical laboratory. Respiratory-tract infections are a predominant cause for medical treatment, although, clinical assessments and standard clinical laboratory protocols are time-consuming and often inadequate for reliable diagnoses. Novel methods, preferably applied directly to clinical samples, excluding cultivation steps, are needed to improve diagnostics of infectious diseases, provide adequate treatment and reduce the use of antibiotics and associated development of antibiotic resistance. This study applied nano-liquid chromatography (LC) coupled with tandem MS, with a bioinformatics pipeline and an in-house database of curated high-quality reference genome sequences to identify species-unique peptides as potential biomarkers for four bacterial pathogens commonly found in respiratory tract infections (RTIs): Staphylococcus aureus; Moraxella catarrhalis; Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. The species-unique peptides were initially identified in pure cultures of bacterial reference strains, reflecting the genomic variation in the four species and, furthermore, in clinical respiratory tract samples, without prior cultivation, elucidating proteins expressed in clinical conditions of infection. For each of the four bacterial pathogens, the peptide biomarker candidates most predominantly found in clinical samples, are presented. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD014522. As proof-of-principle, the most promising species-unique peptides were applied in targeted tandem MS-analyses of clinical samples and their relevance for identifications of the pathogens, i.e. proteotyping, was validated, thus demonstrating their potential as peptide biomarker candidates for diagnostics of infectious diseases.




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Integration of IgA and IgG Autoantigens Improves Performance of Biomarker Panels for Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer [Research]

Lung cancer (LC) remains the leading cause of mortality from malignant tumors worldwide. In our previous study, we surveyed both IgG and IgM-bound serological biomarkers and validated a panel of IgG-bound autoantigens for early LC diagnosis with 50% sensitivity at 90% specificity. To further improve the performance of these serological biomarkers, we surveyed HuProt arrays, comprised of 20,240 human proteins, for IgA-bound autoantigens because IgAs are a major immunoglobulin isotype in the lung. Integrating with IgG-bound autoantigens, we discovered and validated a combined biomarker panel using ELISA-format tests. Specifically, in Phase I, we obtained IgA-based autoimmune profiles of 69 early stage LC patients, 30 healthy subjects and 25 patients with lung benign lesions (LBL) on HuProt arrays and identified 28 proteins as candidate autoantigens that were significantly associated with early stage LC. In Phase II, we re-purified the autoantigens and converted them into an ELISA-format testing to profile an additional large cohort, comprised of 136 early stage LC patients, 58 healthy individuals, and 29 LBL patients. Integration of IgG autoimmune profiles allowed us to identify and validate a biomarker panel of three IgA autoantigens (i.e. BCL7A, and TRIM33 and MTERF4) and three IgG autoantigens (i.e. CTAG1A, DDX4 and MAGEC2) for diagnosis of early stage LC with 73.5% sensitivity at >85% specificity. In Phase III, the performance of this biomarker panel was confirmed with an independent cohort, comprised of 88 early stage LC patients, 18 LBL patients, and 36 healthy subjects. Finally, a blind test on 178 serum samples was conducted to confirm the performance of the biomarker panel. In summary, this study demonstrates for the first time that an integrated panel of IgA/IgG autoantigens can serve as valuable biomarkers to further improve the performance of early diagnosis of LC.




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Genetic Profile and Functional Proteomics of Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Proposal for a Molecular Classification [Research]

Anal squamous cell carcinoma is a rare tumor. Chemo-radiotherapy yields a 50% 3-year relapse-free survival rate in advanced anal cancer, so improved predictive markers and therapeutic options are needed. High-throughput proteomics and whole-exome sequencing were performed in 46 paraffin samples from anal squamous cell carcinoma patients. Hierarchical clustering was used to establish groups de novo. Then, probabilistic graphical models were used to study the differences between groups of patients at the biological process level. A molecular classification into two groups of patients was established, one group with increased expression of proteins related to adhesion, T lymphocytes and glycolysis; and the other group with increased expression of proteins related to translation and ribosomes. The functional analysis by the probabilistic graphical model showed that these two groups presented differences in metabolism, mitochondria, translation, splicing and adhesion processes. Additionally, these groups showed different frequencies of genetic variants in some genes, such as ATM, SLFN11 and DST. Finally, genetic and proteomic characteristics of these groups suggested the use of some possible targeted therapies, such as PARP inhibitors or immunotherapy.




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Chemical Genetics of AGC-kinases Reveals Shared Targets of Ypk1, Protein Kinase A and Sch9 [Research]

Protein phosphorylation cascades play a central role in the regulation of cell growth and protein kinases PKA, Sch9 and Ypk1 take center stage in regulating this process in S. cerevisiae. To understand how these kinases co-ordinately regulate cellular functions we compared the phospho-proteome of exponentially growing cells without and with acute chemical inhibition of PKA, Sch9 and Ypk1. Sites hypo-phosphorylated upon PKA and Sch9 inhibition were preferentially located in RRxS/T-motifs suggesting that many are directly phosphorylated by these enzymes. Interestingly, when inhibiting Ypk1 we not only detected several hypo-phosphorylated sites in the previously reported RxRxxS/T-, but also in an RRxS/T-motif. Validation experiments revealed that neutral trehalase Nth1, a known PKA target, is additionally phosphorylated and activated downstream of Ypk1. Signaling through Ypk1 is therefore more closely related to PKA- and Sch9-signaling than previously appreciated and may perform functions previously only attributed to the latter kinases.




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Correction: Diversity in the Protein N-Glycosylation Pathways Within the Campylobacter Genus. [Additions and Corrections]




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COQ11 deletion mitigates respiratory deficiency caused by mutations in the gene encoding the coenzyme Q chaperone protein Coq10 [Lipids]

Coenzyme Q (Qn) is a vital lipid component of the electron transport chain that functions in cellular energy metabolism and as a membrane antioxidant. In the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, coq1–coq9 deletion mutants are respiratory-incompetent, sensitive to lipid peroxidation stress, and unable to synthesize Q6. The yeast coq10 deletion mutant is also respiratory-deficient and sensitive to lipid peroxidation, yet it continues to produce Q6 at an impaired rate. Thus, Coq10 is required for the function of Q6 in respiration and as an antioxidant and is believed to chaperone Q6 from its site of synthesis to the respiratory complexes. In several fungi, Coq10 is encoded as a fusion polypeptide with Coq11, a recently identified protein of unknown function required for efficient Q6 biosynthesis. Because “fused” proteins are often involved in similar biochemical pathways, here we examined the putative functional relationship between Coq10 and Coq11 in yeast. We used plate growth and Seahorse assays and LC-MS/MS analysis to show that COQ11 deletion rescues respiratory deficiency, sensitivity to lipid peroxidation, and decreased Q6 biosynthesis of the coq10Δ mutant. Additionally, immunoblotting indicated that yeast coq11Δ mutants accumulate increased amounts of certain Coq polypeptides and display a stabilized CoQ synthome. These effects suggest that Coq11 modulates Q6 biosynthesis and that its absence increases mitochondrial Q6 content in the coq10Δcoq11Δ double mutant. This augmented mitochondrial Q6 content counteracts the respiratory deficiency and lipid peroxidation sensitivity phenotypes of the coq10Δ mutant. This study further clarifies the intricate connection between Q6 biosynthesis, trafficking, and function in mitochondrial metabolism.




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The mRNA levels of heat shock factor 1 are regulated by thermogenic signals via the cAMP-dependent transcription factor ATF3 [Metabolism]

Heat shock factor 1 (HSF1) regulates cellular adaptation to challenges such as heat shock and oxidative and proteotoxic stresses. We have recently reported a previously unappreciated role for HSF1 in the regulation of energy metabolism in fat tissues; however, whether HSF1 is differentially expressed in adipose depots and how its levels are regulated in fat tissues remain unclear. Here, we show that HSF1 levels are higher in brown and subcutaneous fat tissues than in those in the visceral depot and that HSF1 is more abundant in differentiated, thermogenic adipocytes. Gene expression experiments indicated that HSF1 is transcriptionally regulated in fat by agents that modulate cAMP levels, by cold exposure, and by pharmacological stimulation of β-adrenergic signaling. An in silico promoter analysis helped identify a putative response element for activating transcription factor 3 (ATF3) at −258 to −250 base pairs from the HSF1 transcriptional start site, and electrophoretic mobility shift and ChIP assays confirmed ATF3 binding to this sequence. Furthermore, functional assays disclosed that ATF3 is necessary and sufficient for HSF1 regulation. Detailed gene expression analysis revealed that ATF3 is one of the most highly induced ATFs in thermogenic tissues of mice exposed to cold temperatures or treated with the β-adrenergic receptor agonist CL316,243 and that its expression is induced by modulators of cAMP levels in isolated adipocytes. To the best of our knowledge, our results show for the first time that HSF1 is transcriptionally controlled by ATF3 in response to classic stimuli that promote heat generation in thermogenic tissues.




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AIG1 and ADTRP are endogenous hydrolases of fatty acid esters of hydroxy fatty acids (FAHFAs) in mice [Metabolism]

Fatty acid esters of hydroxy fatty acids (FAHFAs) are a newly discovered class of signaling lipids with anti-inflammatory and anti-diabetic properties. However, the endogenous regulation of FAHFAs remains a pressing but unanswered question. Here, using MS-based FAHFA hydrolysis assays, LC-MS–based lipidomics analyses, and activity-based protein profiling, we found that androgen-induced gene 1 (AIG1) and androgen-dependent TFPI-regulating protein (ADTRP), two threonine hydrolases, control FAHFA levels in vivo in both genetic and pharmacologic mouse models. Tissues from mice lacking ADTRP (Adtrp-KO), or both AIG1 and ADTRP (DKO) had higher concentrations of FAHFAs particularly isomers with the ester bond at the 9th carbon due to decreased FAHFA hydrolysis activity. The levels of other lipid classes were unaltered indicating that AIG1 and ADTRP specifically hydrolyze FAHFAs. Complementing these genetic studies, we also identified a dual AIG1/ADTRP inhibitor, ABD-110207, which is active in vivo. Acute treatment of WT mice with ABD-110207 resulted in elevated FAHFA levels, further supporting the notion that AIG1 and ADTRP activity control endogenous FAHFA levels. However, loss of AIG1/ADTRP did not mimic the changes associated with pharmacologically administered FAHFAs on extent of upregulation of FAHFA levels, glucose tolerance, or insulin sensitivity in mice, indicating that therapeutic strategies should weigh more on FAHFA administration. Together, these findings identify AIG1 and ADTRP as the first endogenous FAHFA hydrolases identified and provide critical genetic and chemical tools for further characterization of these enzymes and endogenous FAHFAs to unravel their physiological functions and roles in health and disease.




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Government agencies name cybercrime as their top fraud risk: PwC

The 'typical' corrupt bureaucrat is a male, university-educated middle manager, aged 41 to 50.




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Digital Transformation Agency boss Paul Shetler resigns

Agile government takes a stumble as digital pioneer logs off after just six weeks.




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Auditor-general exposes weaknesses in ACT government's IT systems

Electronic sexual health records and the births, deaths and marriages registry have been left exposed.




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The everyday practices of global finance: gender and regulatory politics of ‘diversity’

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Penny Griffin

This article argues that practices of global finance provide a rich opportunity to consider gender's embodiment in everyday, but highly regulatory, financial life. Tracing a pathway through the rise of the ‘diversity agenda’ in global finance in the wake of the global financial crisis, the article asks how ‘diversity’ has shaped the global financial services industry, and whether it has challenged the reproduction of gendered power in global finance. Recent, innovative feminist political economy work has laid out a clear challenge to researchers of the global political economy to explore how everyday practices have become significant sites of gendered, regulatory power, and this article takes up this challenge, analysing how the rise of ‘diversity’ in financial services reveals the crucial intersections of gendered power and everyday economic practices. Using a conceptual framework drawn explicitly from Marysia Zalewski's work, this article advances critical inquiry into how gender has become an often unacknowledged way of writing the world of global finance, in ongoing, and problematic, ways. It proposes that the practices and futures of the diversity agenda in global finance provide a window into the persistent failure of global finance to reconfigure its foundational masculinism, and asks that financial actors begin to take seriously the foundational, gendered myths on which global finance has been built.




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UK General Election 2019: What the Political Party Manifestos Imply for Future UK Trade

Research Event

4 December 2019 - 12:30pm to 1:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex; Director, Interanalysis; Fellow, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex
Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Officer, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex
Prof Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex; Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Department, Chatham House
Nicolo Tamberi, Research Officer in the Economics of Brexit, University of Sussex
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics, Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, University of Sussex

The upcoming UK general election is arguably a 'Brexit election', and as such, whoever wins the election will have little time to get their strategy for Brexit up and running to meet the new Brexit deadline of 31 January 2020. But what are the political parties’ policies for the UK's future trade? This event will present and discuss what the five main parties’ manifestos imply for future UK trade. Each manifesto will be presented and analysed by a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) and will be followed by a Q&A session. 

Michela Gariboldi

Research Assistant, Global Economy and Finance Programme
02073143692




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The African Continental Free Trade Area Could Boost African Agency in International Trade

10 December 2019

Tighisti Amare

Assistant Director, Africa Programme

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga

Director, Trade and Industry, African Union Commission (2012–19)
The agreement, which entered into force in May, could be a major step for Africa’s role in international trade, if the continent can overcome barriers to implementation.

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Delegates arrive at the closing ceremony of the African Union summit in Niger in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on 30 May, after only three years of negotiations, is an economic, political and diplomatic milestone for the African Union (AU) and its member states, crucial for economic growth, job creation, and making Africa a meaningful player in international trade. But the continent will have to work together to ensure that the potential benefits are fully realized.

A necessary innovation

With its advances in maintaining peace and security, abundant natural resources, high growth rates, improved linkages to global supply chains and a youthful population, Africa is emerging as a new global centre of economic growth, increasingly sought after as a partner by the world’s biggest economies. Governments from across Africa have been taking a more assertive role in international markets, including through proactive diversification of trading partners, and the continent remains a strong advocate for the multilateral trading system.

However, this is not yet reflected in outcomes. The African Union does not have observer status at the World Trade Organization, despite diplomatic efforts in the past decade. Africa has less than a three per cent share of global trade, and the growing trend towards protectionism across the global economy may only increase the vulnerability of a disunited Africa. Its fractured internal market means that trade within Africa is lower than for any other region on the globe, with intra-African trade just 18 per cent of overall exports, as compared to 70 per cent in Europe.

The AfCFTA is the continent’s tool to address the disparity between Africa’s growing economic significance and its peripheral place in the global trade system, to build a bridge between present fragmentation and future prosperity. It is an ambitious, comprehensive agreement covering trade in goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights and competition policy. It has been signed by all of Africa’s states with the exception of Eritrea.

It is the AU's Agenda 2063 flagship project, brought about by the decisions taken at the January 2012 African Union Summit to boost intra-African trade and to fast track the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area. It builds upon ambitions enshrined in successive agreements including the Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty. Access to new regional markets and reduced non-tariff barriers are intended to help companies scale up, driving job creation and poverty reduction, as well as attracting inward investment to even Africa’s smaller economies.

The signing in 2018 of the instruments governing the Single Air Transport Market and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Right of Establishment provided another step towards the gradual elimination of barriers to the movement of goods, services and people within the continent.

Tests to come

However, while progress is being made towards the ratification of the AfCFTA, much remains to be done before African countries can fully trade under its terms. The framework for implementation is still under development, and the creation of enabling infrastructure that is critical for connectivity will take time to develop and requires extensive investment.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Africa’s Economic Diplomacy

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga talks about the international implications of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

So, the first test for the AfCFTA will be the level to which Africa’s leaders make it a domestic priority, and whether a consensus can be maintained across the AU’s member states as the costs of implementation become clear.

There is no guarantee that the gains of free trade will be evenly distributed. They will mainly depend on the extent to which countries embrace industrialization, liberalization of their markets and opening of their borders for free movement of goods and people – policies that some incumbent leaders may be reluctant to implement. Political will to maintain a unified negotiating position with diverse stakeholders, including the private sector, will come under increasing stress.  

A second challenge is how the AfCFTA relates to already existing trade arrangements, notably with the EU.  The AU has long preferred to pursue a continent-to-continent trading arrangement instead of the bilateral Economic Partnership Agreements being sought by the EU under the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) framework to which, with the exception of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and South Africa, all African states belong. The signing of the AfCFTA is one important step towards making this possible.

But there are currently negotiations under the ACP to replace the Cotonou Accord (the framework governing trade between ACP members and the EU, including Economic Partnership Agreements [EPAs], that is due to expire in 2020). Negotiations on the African pillar of the accord are due to take place after the AfCFTA has entered into force. So African states and the AU will face the challenge of balancing their commitment to the ACP bloc with pursuing their own interests.

And though the AfCFTA should supersede any other agreements, the EPAs or their successors, will continue to govern day-to-day trading, in parallel to the new pan-African market. It is not yet clear how these contradictions will be reconciled.

A new role for the AU?

The AU will need to play an active role as the main interlocutor with Africa´s international trading partners, with the AfCFTA secretariat being the arbiter of internal tensions and trade disputes. The AU´s engagement at continental level has to date revolved mainly around headline political diplomacy, security and peacekeeping. With the continental free market becoming a reality, an effective pivot to economic diplomacy will be critical for growth and development.

With the AfCFTA, the AU has endeavoured to address Africa’s unsustainable position in global trade, to stimulate growth, economic diversification and jobs for its growing population. Much will depend on the commitment of African leaders to maintaining a unified negotiating position to implement the agreement and the AU’s capacity to effectively move from political to economic diplomacy.




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Secrets and Spies: UK Intelligence Accountability After Iraq and Snowden

20 January 2020

How can democratic governments hold intelligence and security agencies to account when what they do is largely secret? Jamie Gaskarth explores how intelligence professionals view accountability in the context of 21st century politics. 

Jamie Gaskarth

Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham

Using the UK as a case study, this book provides the first systematic exploration of how accountability is understood inside the secret world. It is based on new interviews with current and former UK intelligence practitioners, as well as extensive research into the performance and scrutiny of the UK intelligence machinery.

The result is the first detailed analysis of how intelligence professionals view their role, what they feel keeps them honest, and how far external overseers impact on their work.

The UK gathers material that helps inform global decisions on such issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, transnational crime, and breaches of international humanitarian law. On the flip side, the UK was a major contributor to the intelligence failures leading to the Iraq war in 2003, and its agencies were complicit in the widely discredited U.S. practices of torture and 'rendition' of terrorism suspects. UK agencies have come under greater scrutiny since those actions, but it is clear that problems remain.

Secrets and Spies is the result of a British Academy funded project (SG151249) on intelligence accountability.

Open society is increasingly defended by secret means. For this reason, oversight has never been more important. This book offers a new exploration of the widening world of accountability for UK intelligence, encompassing informal as well as informal mechanisms. It substantiates its claims well, drawing on an impressive range of interviews with senior figures. This excellent book offers both new information and fresh interpretations. It will have a major impact.

Richard Aldrich, Professor of International Security, University of Warwick, UK

Gaskarth’s novel approach, interpreting interviews with senior figures from the intelligence world, brings fresh insight on a significant yet contested topic. He offers an impressively holistic account of intelligence accountability—both formal and informal—and, most interestingly of all, of how those involved understand it. This is essential reading for those wanting to know what accountability means and how it is enacted.

Rory Cormac, Professor of International Relations, University of Nottingham

About the author

Jamie Gaskarth is senior lecturer at the University of Birmingham, where he teaches strategy and decision-making. His research looks at the ethical dilemmas of leadership and accountability in intelligence, foreign policy, and defence. He is author/editor or co-editor of six books and served on the Academic Advisory panel for the 2015 UK National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review.

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Insights: Critical Thinking on International Affairs

Department/project




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Coronavirus: Global Response Urgently Needed

15 March 2020

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House

Robin Niblett

Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

Creon Butler

Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models: Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme
There have been warnings for several years that world leaders would find it hard to manage a new global crisis in today’s more confrontational, protectionist and nativist political environment.

2020-03-15-Korea-Stock-Exchange.jpg

A currency dealer wearing a face mask monitors exchange rates in front of a screen showing South Korea's benchmark stock index in Seoul on March 13, 2020. Photo by JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images.

An infectious disease outbreak has long been a top national security risk in several countries, but the speed and extent of COVID-19’s spread and the scale of its social and economic impact has come as an enormous and deeply worrying shock.

This pandemic is not just a global medical and economic emergency. It could also prove a decisive make-or-break point for today’s system of global political and economic cooperation.

This system was built up painstakingly after 1945 as a response to the beggar-thy-neighbour economic policies of the 1930s which led to the Second World War. But it has been seriously weakened recently as the US and China have entered a more overt phase of strategic competition, and as they and a number of the other most important global and regional players have pursued their narrowly defined self-interest.

Now, the disjointed global economic response to COVID-19, with its enormous ramifications for global prosperity and economic stability, has blown into the open the urgent need for an immediate reaffirmation of international political and economic cooperation.

What is needed is a clear, coordinated and public statement from the leaders of the world’s major countries affirming the many things on which they do already agree, and some on which they should be able to agree.

In particular that:

  • they will give the strongest possible support for the WHO in leading the medical response internationally;
  • they will be transparent and tell the truth to their peoples about the progress of the disease and the threat that it represents;
  • they will work together and with the international financial institutions to provide businesses, particularly SMEs, and individuals whatever support they need to get through the immediate crisis and avoid long-term damage to the global economy; 
  • they will ensure the financial facilities for crisis support to countries - whether at global or regional level - have whatever resources they need to support countries in difficulty;
  • they will avoid new protectionist policies - whether in trade or finance;
  • they commit not to forget the poor and vulnerable in society and those least able to look after themselves.

Such a statement could be made by G20 leaders, reflecting the group’s role since 2010 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation.

But it could be even more appropriate coming from the UN Security Council, recognising that COVID-19 is much more than an economic challenge; and also reflecting the practical fact, in a time when international travel is restricted, the UNSC has an existing mechanism in New York to negotiate and quickly agree such a statement.

A public statement by leading countries could do a great deal to help arrest a growing sense of powerlessness among citizens and loss of confidence among businesses worldwide as the virus spreads.

It could also set a new course for international political and economic cooperation, not just in relation to the virus, but also other global threats with potentially devastating consequences for economic growth and political stability in the coming years.




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Catalytic residues, substrate specificity, and role in carbon starvation of the 2-hydroxy FA dioxygenase Mpo1 in yeast

Keisuke Mori
Apr 29, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000803v1-jlr.RA120000803
Research Articles




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Heritability of 596 lipid species and genetic correlation with cardiovascular traits in the Busselton Family Heart Study

Gemma Cadby
Apr 1, 2020; 61:537-545
Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research




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Roles of endogenous ether lipids and associated PUFA in the regulation of ion channels and their relevance for disease

Delphine Fontaine
Apr 7, 2020; 0:jlr.RA120000634v1-jlr.RA120000634
Research Articles




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LDL subclass lipidomics in atherogenic dyslipidemia:Effect of statin therapy on bioactive lipids and dense LDL

M John Chapman
Apr 15, 2020; 0:jlr.P119000543v1-jlr.P119000543
Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research




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A novel GPER antagonist protects against the formation of estrogen-induced cholesterol gallstones in female mice

Chelsea DeLeon
May 1, 2020; 61:767-777
Research Articles




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Episode Eight: The Internet of Genocidal Chatbots (IoGC) Tay, Microsoft Build and Apple vs FBI

In this week's UK Tech Weekly Podcast host Matt Egan is joined by online editor at Techworld.com Scott Carey to discuss all of the news coming out of Microsoft's Build 2016 developer conference, before being joined by producer Chris to talk about the company's genocidal AI chatbot Tay's public meltdown (13:00). Then, acting editor at Macworld.co.uk David Price jumps in to discuss the apparent resolution to the Apple vs FBI fight (29:00).  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




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Episode 43 - The Internet of Procedural Generation (IoPG)

Join host David Price for a dive into all things tech: Round 43. Things go mobile as Senior Staff Writer at PC Advisor and Macworld UK Henry Burrell tells us why Sky getting into the market is a big deal. Quad-play ahoy. Then fellow Senior Staff Writer Lewis Painter (14 mins) tells us why No Man's Sky is still making the headlines, this time for making stuff up. How far have companies taken false advertising in recent years? Third up is Techworld editor Charlotte Jee (25 mins) to talk about how the government has perhaps avoided taking responsibility when it comes to sex-ed and instead suggested it ban sexting - is that even possible? Listen on to find out.  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




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Roles of endogenous ether lipids and associated PUFA in the regulation of ion channels and their relevance for disease [Research Articles]

Ether lipids (ELs) are lipids characterized by the presence of either an ether linkage (alkyl lipids) or a vinyl ether linkage (i.e. plasmalogens [Pls]) at the sn1 position of the glycerol backbone and they are enriched in PUFAs at the sn2 position. In this review, we highlight that ELs have various biological functions, act as a reservoir for second messengers (such as PUFAs), and have roles in many diseases. Some of the biological effects of ELs may be associated with their ability to regulate ion channels that control excitation-contraction/secretion/mobility coupling and therefore cell physiology. These channels are embedded in lipid membranes, and lipids can regulate their activities directly or indirectly as second messengers or by incorporating into membranes. Interestingly, ELs and EL-derived PUFAs have been reported to play a key role in several pathologies, including neurological disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and cancers. Investigations leading to a better understanding of their mechanisms of action in pathologies have opened a new field in cancer research. In summary, newly identified lipid regulators of ion channels, such as ELs and PUFAs, may represent valuable targets to improve disease diagnosis and advance the development of new therapeutic strategies for managing a range of diseases and conditions.




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LDL subclass lipidomics in atherogenic dyslipidemia:Effect of statin therapy on bioactive lipids and dense LDL [Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research]

Atherogenic LDL particles are physicochemically and metabolically heterogeneous. Can bioactive lipid cargo differentiate LDL subclasses, and thus potential atherogenicity?  What is the effect of statin treatment? Obese, hypertriglyceridemic, hypercholesterolemic males (n=12; Lp(a) <10 mg/dL) received pitavastatin calcium (4mg/day) for 180 days in a single-phase, unblinded study. The lipidomic profiles (23 lipid classes) of five LDL subclasses fractionated from baseline and post-statin plasmas were determined by LC-MS. At baseline and on statin treatment, very small dense LDL (LDL5) was preferentially enriched (up to 3-fold) in specific lysophospholipids (lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC); lysophosphatidylinositol (LPI); lyso-platelet activating factor (LPC(O)); 9,0.2 and 0.14 mol/mol apoB respectively; all p<0.001 versus LDL1-4), suggesting  elevated inflammatory potential per particle. In contrast, lysophosphatidylethanolamine was uniformly distributed among LDL subclasses. Statin treatment markedly reduced absolute plasma concentrations of all LDL subclasses (up to 33.5%), including LPC, LPI and LPC(O) contents (up to -52%), consistent with reduction in cardiovascular risk. Despite such reductions, lipotoxic ceramide load per particle in LDL1-5 (1.5 - 3 mol/mol apoB; 3 - 7 mmol/mol phosphatidylcholine) was either conserved or elevated. Bioactive lipids may constitute biomarkers for the cardiometabolic risk associated with specific LDL subclasses in atherogenic dyslipidemia at baseline, and with residual risk on statin therapy.




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Catalytic residues, substrate specificity, and role in carbon starvation of the 2-hydroxy FA dioxygenase Mpo1 in yeast [Research Articles]

The yeast protein Mpo1 belongs to a protein family that is widely conserved in bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and plants, and is the only protein of this family whose function has so far been elucidated. Mpo1 is an Fe2+-dependent dioxygenase that catalyzes the α-oxidation reaction of 2-hydroxy (2-OH) long-chain FAs produced in the degradation pathway of the long-chain base phytosphingosine. However, several biochemical characteristics of Mpo1, such as its catalytic residues, membrane topology, and substrate specificity, remain unclear. Here, we report that yeast Mpo1 contains two transmembrane domains and that both its N- and C-terminal regions are exposed to the cytosol. Mutational analyses revealed that three histidine residues conserved in the Mpo1 family are especially important for Mpo1 activity, suggesting that they may be responsible for the formation of coordinate bonds with Fe2+. We found that, in addition to activity toward 2-OH long-chain FAs, Mpo1 also exhibits activity toward 2-OH very-long-chain FAs derived from the FA moiety of sphingolipids. These results indicate that Mpo1 is involved in the metabolism of long-chain to very-long-chain 2-OH FAs produced in different pathways. We noted that the growth of mpo1 cells is delayed upon carbon deprivation, suggesting that the Mpo1-mediated conversion of 2-OH FAs to non-hydroxy FAs is important for utilizing 2-OH FAs as a carbon source under carbon starvation. Our findings help to elucidate the as-yet-unknown functions and activities of other Mpo1 family members.




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Coronavirus: Global Response Urgently Needed

15 March 2020

Jim O'Neill

Chair, Chatham House

Robin Niblett

Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

Creon Butler

Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models: Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme
There have been warnings for several years that world leaders would find it hard to manage a new global crisis in today’s more confrontational, protectionist and nativist political environment.

2020-03-15-Korea-Stock-Exchange.jpg

A currency dealer wearing a face mask monitors exchange rates in front of a screen showing South Korea's benchmark stock index in Seoul on March 13, 2020. Photo by JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images.

An infectious disease outbreak has long been a top national security risk in several countries, but the speed and extent of COVID-19’s spread and the scale of its social and economic impact has come as an enormous and deeply worrying shock.

This pandemic is not just a global medical and economic emergency. It could also prove a decisive make-or-break point for today’s system of global political and economic cooperation.

This system was built up painstakingly after 1945 as a response to the beggar-thy-neighbour economic policies of the 1930s which led to the Second World War. But it has been seriously weakened recently as the US and China have entered a more overt phase of strategic competition, and as they and a number of the other most important global and regional players have pursued their narrowly defined self-interest.

Now, the disjointed global economic response to COVID-19, with its enormous ramifications for global prosperity and economic stability, has blown into the open the urgent need for an immediate reaffirmation of international political and economic cooperation.

What is needed is a clear, coordinated and public statement from the leaders of the world’s major countries affirming the many things on which they do already agree, and some on which they should be able to agree.

In particular that:

  • they will give the strongest possible support for the WHO in leading the medical response internationally;
  • they will be transparent and tell the truth to their peoples about the progress of the disease and the threat that it represents;
  • they will work together and with the international financial institutions to provide businesses, particularly SMEs, and individuals whatever support they need to get through the immediate crisis and avoid long-term damage to the global economy; 
  • they will ensure the financial facilities for crisis support to countries - whether at global or regional level - have whatever resources they need to support countries in difficulty;
  • they will avoid new protectionist policies - whether in trade or finance;
  • they commit not to forget the poor and vulnerable in society and those least able to look after themselves.

Such a statement could be made by G20 leaders, reflecting the group’s role since 2010 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation.

But it could be even more appropriate coming from the UN Security Council, recognising that COVID-19 is much more than an economic challenge; and also reflecting the practical fact, in a time when international travel is restricted, the UNSC has an existing mechanism in New York to negotiate and quickly agree such a statement.

A public statement by leading countries could do a great deal to help arrest a growing sense of powerlessness among citizens and loss of confidence among businesses worldwide as the virus spreads.

It could also set a new course for international political and economic cooperation, not just in relation to the virus, but also other global threats with potentially devastating consequences for economic growth and political stability in the coming years.




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Why The Insurgency in Northern Mozambique Has Got Worse

1 April 2020

Dr Alex Vines OBE

Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme
Two attacks on towns in northern Mozambique by suspected jihadists point to a rapidly deteriorating security crisis.

2020-04-01-Mozambique

Macomia, Cabo Delgado, Northern Mozambique. Photo by EMIDIO JOSINE/AFP via Getty Images.

On March 23 to 24, the centre of Mocimboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province was occupied by up to 40 “jihadists”, who targeted government facilities, including a barracks, and brandished banners of affiliation to the so-called Islamic State.

On March 25, suspected jihadists raided the town of Quissanga and destroyed the district police headquarters. They too carried an Islamic State flag. Twenty to 30 members of Mozambique’s security forces were killed in both attacks.

Mocimboa da Praia is just south of the Afungi Peninsula, the location of gas projects worth $60- billion. Mocimboa was briefly occupied in late 2017, during attacks claimed by a group known as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama (or al-Sunnah) that marked the start of a brutal low-intensity conflict, with widespread human rights abuses and attacks on civilians.

Up to 1,000 people have now been killed and 100,000 displaced. More recently, The Islamic State Central Africa Province (Iscap), affiliated with the Islamic State group, has claimed responsibility for the attacks. Video and photos of these most recent events, along with the testimony of frightened residents and overstretched government officials, suggest a shift of strategy by the insurgents.

There seems to have been an effort to avoid harming civilians, to win hearts and minds by redistributing stolen food, medicine and fuel to “loyal” residents, and to direct attacks on the state and its symbols, such as police stations and military barracks. It is difficult from a distance to assess if there was any genuine pleasure over these attacks among local people; while residents in both towns that did not flee seemed to welcome the attackers, this may well have been out of fear that the government is currently unable to guarantee their security.

These attacks also indicate that the jihadist-linked insurgents are growing in confidence. They are confronting government security forces with little appetite for fighting. The Mozambican government has been expecting setbacks like those of Mocimboa and Quissanga — its forces are demoralised and many commanders exhausted or corrupted by an emerging war economy. Jihadists are also taking tactical advantage before a reformed and more effective government counterinsurgency effort is introduced in response.

President Filipe Nyusi, inaugurated in January for his second term, has made this crisis his prime focus and has become the de-facto minister of defence.

Military reform and the role of private military companies

But there is no quick fix. Most importantly, the Mozambican military and security forces need to be restructured. They were unable to win the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), even with international support, and have not improved in capacity or conduct since. They now face a complex, multilayered and asymmetrical conflict, mostly drawing upon local and regional grievances and networks but increasingly also attracting some limited encouragement and advice from further afield.

Nyusi will need to build-up trusted relationships in the military in the way he has successfully done with parts of the intelligence community. The Mozambican government has already reached out to international expertise — though not necessarily the right kind. The founder of the Blackwater private military company, Erik Prince, supplied two helicopters and support crew for the Mozambican military in mid-2019, before being replaced by some 170 Russian privateers linked to the Wagner Group.

The Wagner contingent arrived in September 2019 at Nacala airport with trucks, drones and a Mi-17 helicopter gunship, then deployed into the combat zone of northern Cabo Delgado. Setbacks, including at least two dead Russians, forced a tactical fallback to Nacala, though a new effort is reported to have been underway since late February 2020.

The Mozambican government is also considering a number of proposals from other private military companies. Maputo needs to consider these carefully; Israeli or Gulf State involvement in any form might exasperate rather than alleviate this crisis.

The Tanzanian connection

But market-led security and military providers will not end this insurgency. Nor will the engagement of states such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom or Angola, all of which have made their own offers of support. What would significantly make a difference is much closer to home: serious Tanzanian engagement.

This insurgency is concentrated in districts bordering Tanzania and there is clear-cut intelligence of connections into Tanzania and beyond. Swahili is also a lingua franca for the jihadists, connecting them up the East African coast, and into eastern Congo and elsewhere.

It is puzzling, given the deep shared history between Tanzania and Mozambique, that the bilateral relationship is as patchy as it is today: during the liberation struggle (1965-1974) against the Portuguese, Mozambique’s ruling party Frelimo maintained rear bases in Tanzania, and Nyusi was educated there.

Conspiracy theories circulate that Tanzania has encouraged the Cabo Delgado insurgency to weaken its neighbour, or at least displace radicalised individuals from Tanzanian soil into Mozambique.

President John Magafuli of Tanzania did not attend the January inauguration of Nyusi. It has become urgent that Magafuli (who is also the current chair of the regional body, the Southern African Development Community) and Nyusi meet face-to-face to map out improved intelligence sharing and a joint strategy to respond to an emerging regional threat.

Southern Africa is locking down because of Covid-19, which will distract the government’s ability to focus fully on this crisis and create a perfect moment for the infant insurgency in Cabo Delgado to grow. More military setbacks should be expected in coming months.

But the Mozambican government can still contain and prevail if it seriously reforms its military, builds strong alliances with its regional neighbours (especially Tanzania), chooses its private security contractors and international partnerships wisely, and backs military efforts with better intelligence and developmental interventions that offer alternative pathways to potential recruits.

But despite Maputo’s hope that significant progress will be made over the coming year, and the setting up of a presidential task force to evaluate progress and intelligence, it is likely that Mozambique and its partners will need to prepare themselves for a drawn-out struggle.

This article originally appeared in the Mail & Guardian




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Coronavirus: Public Health Emergency or Pandemic – Does Timing Matter?

1 May 2020

Dr Charles Clift

Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been criticized for delaying its announcements of a public health emergency and a pandemic for COVID-19. But could earlier action have influenced the course of events?

2020-05-01-Tedros-WHO-COVID

WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the COVID-19 press briefing on March 11, 2020, the day the coronavirus outbreak was classed as a pandemic. Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of COVID-19 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30 this year and then characterized it as a pandemic on March 11.

Declaring a PHEIC is the highest level of alert that WHO is obliged to declare, and is meant to send a powerful signal to countries of the need for urgent action to combat the spread of the disease, mobilize resources to help low- and middle-income countries in this effort and fund research and development on needed treatments, vaccines and diagnostics. It also obligates countries to share information with WHO.

Once the PHEIC was declared, the virus continued to spread globally, and WHO began to be asked why it had not yet declared the disease a pandemic. But there is no widely accepted definition of a pandemic, generally it is just considered an epidemic which affects many countries globally.

Potentially more deadly

The term has hitherto been applied almost exclusively to new forms of flu, such as H1N1 in 2009 or Spanish flu in 1918, where the lack of population immunity and absence of a vaccine or effective treatments makes the outbreak potentially much more deadly than seasonal flu (which, although global, is not considered a pandemic).

For COVID-19, WHO seemed reluctant to declare a pandemic despite the evidence of global spread. Partly this was because of its influenza origins — WHO’s emergency programme executive director said on March 9 that ‘if this was influenza, we would have called a pandemic ages ago’.

He also expressed concern that the word traditionally meant moving — once there was widespread transmission — from trying to contain the disease by testing, isolating the sick and tracing and quarantining their contacts, to a mitigation approach, implying ‘the disease will spread uncontrolled’.

WHO’s worry was that the world’s reaction to the word pandemic might be there was now nothing to be done to stop its spread, and so countries would effectively give up trying. WHO wanted to send the message that, unlike flu, it could still be pushed back and the spread slowed down.

In announcing the pandemic two days later, WHO’s director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reemphasised this point: ‘We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic’ and that WHO was deeply concerned ‘by the alarming levels of inaction’.

The evidence suggests that the correct message did in fact get through. On March 13, US president Donald Trump declared a national emergency, referring in passing to WHO’s announcement. On March 12, the UK launched its own strategy to combat the disease. And in the week following WHO’s announcements, at least 16 other countries announced lockdowns of varying rigour including Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland. Italy and Greece had both already instituted lockdowns prior to the WHO pandemic announcement.

It is not possible to say for sure that WHO’s announcement precipitated these measures because, by then, the evidence of the rapid spread was all around for governments to see. It may be that Italy’s dramatic nationwide lockdown on March 9 reverberated around European capitals and elsewhere.

But it is difficult to believe the announcement did not have an effect in stimulating government actions, as was intended by Dr Tedros. Considering the speed with which the virus was spreading from late February, might an earlier pandemic announcement by WHO have stimulated earlier aggressive actions by governments?

Declaring a global health emergency — when appropriate — is a key part of WHO’s role in administering the International Health Regulations (IHR). Significantly, negotiations on revisions to the IHR, which had been ongoing in a desultory fashion in WHO since 1995, were accelerated by the experience of the first serious coronavirus outbreak — SARS — in 2002-2003, leading to their final agreement in 2005.

Under the IHR, WHO’s director-general decides whether to declare an emergency based on a set of criteria and on the advice of an emergency committee. IHR defines an emergency as an ‘extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk through the international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response’.

In the case of COVID-19, the committee first met on January 22-23 but were unable to reach consensus on a declaration. Following the director-general’s trip to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing, the committee reconvened on January 30 and this time advised declaring a PHEIC.

But admittedly, public recognition of what a PHEIC means is extremely low. Only six have ever been declared, with the first being the H1N1 flu outbreak which fizzled out quickly, despite possibly causing 280,000 deaths globally. During the H1N1 outbreak, WHO declared a PHEIC in April 2009 and then a pandemic in June, only to rescind both in August as the outbreak was judged to have transitioned to behave like a seasonal flu.

WHO was criticized afterwards for prematurely declaring a PHEIC and overreacting. This then may have impacted the delay in declaring the Ebola outbreak in West Africa as a PHEIC in 2014, long after it became a major crisis. WHO’s former legal counsel has suggested the PHEIC — and other aspects of the IHR framework — may not be effective in stimulating appropriate actions by governments and needs to be reconsidered.

When the time is right to evaluate lessons about the response, it might be appropriate to consider the relative effectiveness of the PHEIC and pandemic announcements and their optimal timing in stimulating appropriate action by governments. The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing the overall death toll also needs investigation.




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Metabolic profiling in colorectal cancer reveals signature metabolic shifts during tumorigenesis [13. Other]

Colorectal cancer (CRC) arises as the consequence of progressive changes from normal epithelial cells through polyp to tumor, and thus is an useful model for studying metabolic shift. In the present study, we studied the metabolomic profiles using high analyte specific gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) to attain a systems-level view of the shift in metabolism in cells progressing along the path to CRC. Colonic tissues including tumor, polyps and adjacent matched normal mucosa from 26 patients with sporadic CRC from freshly isolated resections were used for this study. The metabolic profiles were obtained using GC/MS and LC/MS/MS. Our data suggest there was a distinct profile change of a wide range of metabolites from mucosa to tumor tissues. Various amino acids and lipids in the polyps and tumors were elevated, suggesting higher energy needs for increased cellular proliferation. In contrast, significant depletion of glucose and inositol in polyps revealed that glycolysis may be critical in early tumorigenesis. In addition, the accumulation of hypoxanthine and xanthine, and the decrease of uric acid concentration, suggest that the purine biosynthesis pathway could have been substituted by the salvage pathway in CRC. Further, there was a step-wise reduction of deoxycholic acid concentration from mucosa to tumors. It appears that to gain a growth advantage, cancer cells may adopt alternate metabolic pathways in tumorigenesis and this flexibility allows them to adapt and thrive in harsh environment.




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Translating Divergent Environmental Stresses into a Common Proteome Response through Hik33 in a Model Cyanobacterium [Research]

The histidine kinase Hik33 plays important roles in mediating cyanobacterial response to divergent types of abiotic stresses including cold, salt, high light (HL), and osmotic stresses. However, how these functions are regulated by Hik33 remains to be addressed. Using a hik33-deficient strain (hik33) of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (Synechocystis) and quantitative proteomics, we found that Hik33 depletion induces differential protein expression highly similar to that induced by divergent types of stresses. This typically includes downregulation of proteins in photosynthesis and carbon assimilation that are necessary for cell propagation, and upregulation of heat shock proteins, chaperons, and proteases that are important for cell survival. This observation indicates that depletion of Hik33 alone mimics divergent types of abiotic stresses, and that Hik33 could be important for preventing abnormal stress response in the normal condition. Moreover, we found the majority of proteins of plasmid origin were significantly upregulated in hik33, though their biological significance remains to be addressed. Together, the systematically characterized Hik33-regulated cyanobacterial proteome, which is largely involved in stress responses, builds the molecular basis for Hik33 as a general regulator of stress responses.




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Investigation of inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity of glioblastoma using TOF-SIMS [Research]

Glioblastoma (GBM) is one of the most aggressive human cancers with a median survival of less than two years. A distinguishing pathological feature of GBM is a high degree of inter- and intratumoral heterogeneity. Intertumoral heterogeneity of GBM has been extensively investigated on genomic, methylomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomics levels, however only a few studies describe intratumoral heterogeneity due to the lack of methods allowing to analyze GBM samples with high spatial resolution. Here, we applied TOF-SIMS (Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry) for the analysis of single cells and clinical samples such as paraffin and frozen tumor sections obtained from 57 patients. We developed a technique that allows us to simultaneously detect the distribution of proteins and metabolites in glioma tissue with 800 nm spatial resolution. Our results demonstrate that according to TOF-SIMS data glioma samples can be subdivided into clinically relevant groups and distinguished from the normal brain tissue. In addition, TOF-SIMS was able to elucidate differences between morphologically distinct regions of GBM within the same tumor. By staining GBM sections with gold-conjugated antibodies against Caveolin-1 we could visualize border between zones of necrotic and cellular tumor and subdivide glioma samples into groups characterized by different survival of the patients. Finally, we demonstrated that GBM contains cells that are characterized by high levels of Caveolin-1 protein and cholesterol. This population may partly represent a glioma stem cells. Collectively, our results show that the technique described here allows to analyze glioma tissues with a spatial resolution beyond reach of most of other omics approaches and the obtained data may be used to predict clinical behavior of the tumor.




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Ghana: Following the Gentle Giant

1 November 2008 , Number 8

Ghana’s President John Kufuor has successfully promoted his country as a haven of political and economic stability, but as he comes to the end of his two terms in office, the cracks are beginning to appear. Can Ghana escape the election traumas that have been so destructive in Kenya and Zimbabwe?

Sola Tayo

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme




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Renewable Energy: Generating Money

1 November 2007 , Number 7

City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December.

Kirsty Hamilton

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

GettyImages-977104176.jpg

Solar panels lined up




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Rethinking youth bulge theory in policy and scholarship: incorporating critical gender analysis

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Lesley Pruitt

For decades ‘youth bulge’ theory has dominated understandings of youth in mainstream International Relations. Youth bulge theory has also become part of some public media analyses, mainstream political rhetoric, and even officially enshrined in the foreign policy of some states. Through the ‘youth bulge’ lens, youth—especially males—have been presented as current or future perpetrators of violence. However, this article argues that the youth bulge thesis postulated in mainstream IR is based on flawed theoretical assumptions. In particular, supporters of youth bulge theory fail to engage with existing research by feminist IR scholars and thus take on a biological essentialist approach. This has led to theoretical and practical misunderstandings of the roles youth play in relation to conflict, peace and security. These partial and biased understandings have also resulted in less effective policy-making. In critically reflecting on the ‘youth bulge’ thesis, this article argues that applying gender analysis is crucial to understanding the involvement of young people in general—and young men in particular—in conflict. Doing so will contribute to advancing more accurate analysis in scholarship and policy-making.




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Secrets and Spies: UK Intelligence Accountability After Iraq and Snowden

20 January 2020

How can democratic governments hold intelligence and security agencies to account when what they do is largely secret? Jamie Gaskarth explores how intelligence professionals view accountability in the context of 21st century politics. 

Jamie Gaskarth

Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham

Using the UK as a case study, this book provides the first systematic exploration of how accountability is understood inside the secret world. It is based on new interviews with current and former UK intelligence practitioners, as well as extensive research into the performance and scrutiny of the UK intelligence machinery.

The result is the first detailed analysis of how intelligence professionals view their role, what they feel keeps them honest, and how far external overseers impact on their work.

The UK gathers material that helps inform global decisions on such issues as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, transnational crime, and breaches of international humanitarian law. On the flip side, the UK was a major contributor to the intelligence failures leading to the Iraq war in 2003, and its agencies were complicit in the widely discredited U.S. practices of torture and 'rendition' of terrorism suspects. UK agencies have come under greater scrutiny since those actions, but it is clear that problems remain.

Secrets and Spies is the result of a British Academy funded project (SG151249) on intelligence accountability.

Open society is increasingly defended by secret means. For this reason, oversight has never been more important. This book offers a new exploration of the widening world of accountability for UK intelligence, encompassing informal as well as informal mechanisms. It substantiates its claims well, drawing on an impressive range of interviews with senior figures. This excellent book offers both new information and fresh interpretations. It will have a major impact.

Richard Aldrich, Professor of International Security, University of Warwick, UK

Gaskarth’s novel approach, interpreting interviews with senior figures from the intelligence world, brings fresh insight on a significant yet contested topic. He offers an impressively holistic account of intelligence accountability—both formal and informal—and, most interestingly of all, of how those involved understand it. This is essential reading for those wanting to know what accountability means and how it is enacted.

Rory Cormac, Professor of International Relations, University of Nottingham

About the author

Jamie Gaskarth is senior lecturer at the University of Birmingham, where he teaches strategy and decision-making. His research looks at the ethical dilemmas of leadership and accountability in intelligence, foreign policy, and defence. He is author/editor or co-editor of six books and served on the Academic Advisory panel for the 2015 UK National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review.

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Insights: Critical Thinking on International Affairs

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Metallopeptidase Stp1 activates the transcription factor Sre1 in the carotenogenic yeast Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous [Research Articles]

Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous is a basidiomycete yeast known as a natural producer of astaxanthin, a carotenoid of commercial interest because of its antioxidant properties. Recent studies indicated that X. dendrorhous has a functional SREBP pathway involved in the regulation of isoprenoid compound biosynthesis, which includes ergosterol and carotenoids. SREBP is a major regulator of sterol metabolism and homeostasis in mammals; characterization in fungi also provides information about its role in the hypoxia adaptation response and virulence. SREBP protease processing is required to activate SREBP pathway functions in fungi. Here, we identified and described the STP1 gene, which encodes a metallopeptidase of the M50 family involved in the proteolytic activation of the transcription factor Sre1 of the SREBP pathway, in X. dendrorhous. We assessed STP1 function in stp1 strains derived from the wild-type and a mutant of ergosterol biosynthesis that overproduces carotenoids and sterols. Bioinformatic analysis of the deduced protein predicted the presence of characteristic features identified in homologs from mammals and fungi. The stp1 mutation decreased yeast growth in the presence of azole drugs and reduced transcript levels of Sre1-dependent genes. This mutation also negatively affected the carotenoid- and sterol-overproducing phenotype. Western blot analysis demonstrated that Sre1 was activated in the yeast ergosterol biosynthesis mutant and that the stp1 mutation introduced in this strain prevented Sre1 proteolytic activation. Overall, our results demonstrate that STP1 encodes a metallopeptidase involved in proteolytic activation of Sre1 in X. dendrorhous, contributing to our understanding of fungal SREBP pathways.




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Worming our way toward multiple evolutionary origins of convergent sterol pathways [Commentary]




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Nonsynonymous SNPs in LPA homologous to plasminogen deficiency mutants represent novel null apo(a) alleles [Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research]

Plasma lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] levels are largely determined by variation in the LPA gene, which codes for apo(a). Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified nonsynonymous variants in LPA that associate with low Lp(a) levels, although their effect on apo(a) function is unknown. We investigated two such variants, R990Q and R1771C, which were present in four null Lp(a) individuals, for structural and functional effects. Sequence alignments showed the R990 and R1771 residues to be highly conserved and homologous to each other and to residues associated with plasminogen deficiency. Structural modeling showed both residues to make several polar contacts with neighboring residues that would be ablated on substitution. Recombinant expression of the WT and R1771C apo(a) in liver and kidney cells showed an abundance of an immature form for both apo(a) proteins. A mature form of apo(a) was only seen with the WT protein. Imaging of the recombinant apo(a) proteins in conjunction with markers of the secretory pathway indicated a poor transit of R1771C into the Golgi. Furthermore, the R1771C mutant displayed a glycosylation pattern consistent with ER, but not Golgi, glycosylation. We conclude that R1771 and the equivalent R990 residue facilitate correct folding of the apo(a) kringle structure and mutations at these positions prevent the proper folding required for full maturation and secretion. To our knowledge, this is the first example of nonsynonymous variants in LPA being causative of a null Lp(a) phenotype.




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Serum amyloid A is not incorporated into HDL during HDL biogenesis [Research Articles]

Liver-derived serum amyloid A (SAA) is present in plasma where it is mainly associated with HDL and from which it is cleared more rapidly than are the other major HDL-associated apolipoproteins. Although evidence suggests that lipid-free and HDL-associated forms of SAA have different activities, the pathways by which SAA associates and disassociates with HDL are poorly understood. In this study, we investigated SAA lipidation by hepatocytes and how this lipidation relates to the formation of nascent HDL particles. We also examined hepatocyte-mediated clearance of lipid-free and HDL-associated SAA. We prepared hepatocytes from mice injected with lipopolysaccharide or an SAA-expressing adenoviral vector. Alternatively, we incubated primary hepatocytes from SAA-deficient mice with purified SAA. We analyzed conditioned media to determine the lipidation status of endogenously produced and exogenously added SAA. Examining the migration of lipidated species, we found that SAA is lipidated and forms nascent particles that are distinct from apoA-I-containing particles and that apoA-I lipidation is unaltered when SAA is overexpressed or added to the cells, indicating that SAA is not incorporated into apoA-I-containing HDL during HDL biogenesis. Like apoA-I formation, generation of SAA-containing particles was dependent on ABCA1, but not on scavenger receptor class B type I. Hepatocytes degraded significantly more SAA than apoA-I. Taken together, our results indicate that SAA’s lipidation and metabolism by the liver is independent of apoA-I and that SAA is not incorporated into HDL during HDL biogenesis.




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Erratum: Unequivocal evidence for endogenous geranylgeranoic acid biosynthesized from mevalonate in mammalian cells [Errata]




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Heritability of 596 lipid species and genetic correlation with cardiovascular traits in the Busselton Family Heart Study [Patient-Oriented and Epidemiological Research]

CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide, and genetic investigations into the human lipidome may provide insight into CVD risk. The aim of this study was to estimate the heritability of circulating lipid species and their genetic correlation with CVD traits. Targeted lipidomic profiling was performed on 4,492 participants from the Busselton Family Heart Study to quantify the major fatty acids of 596 lipid species from 33 classes. We estimated narrow-sense heritabilities of lipid species/classes and their genetic correlations with eight CVD traits: BMI, HDL-C, LDL-C, triglycerides, total cholesterol, waist-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure. We report heritabilities and genetic correlations of new lipid species/subclasses, including acylcarnitine (AC), ubiquinone, sulfatide, and oxidized cholesteryl esters. Over 99% of lipid species were significantly heritable (h2: 0.06–0.50) and all lipid classes were significantly heritable (h2: 0.14–0.50). The monohexosylceramide and AC classes had the highest median heritabilities (h2 = 0.43). The largest genetic correlation was between clinical triglycerides and total diacylglycerol (rg = 0.88). We observed novel positive genetic correlations between clinical triglycerides and phosphatidylglycerol species (rg: 0.64–0.82), and HDL-C and alkenylphosphatidylcholine species (rg: 0.45–0.74). Overall, 51% of the 4,768 lipid species-CVD trait genetic correlations were statistically significant after correction for multiple comparisons. This is the largest lipidomic study to address the heritability of lipids and their genetic correlation with CVD traits. Future work includes identifying putative causal genetic variants for lipid species and CVD using genome-wide SNP and whole-genome sequencing data.




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Hepatic monoamine oxidase B is involved in endogenous geranylgeranoic acid synthesis in mammalian liver cells [Research Articles]

Geranylgeranoic acid (GGA) originally was identified in some animals and has been developed as an agent for preventing second primary hepatoma. We previously have also identified GGA as an acyclic diterpenoid in some medicinal herbs. Recently, we reported that in human hepatoma-derived HuH-7 cells, GGA is metabolically labeled from 13C-mevalonate. Several cell-free experiments have demonstrated that GGA is synthesized through geranylgeranial by oxygen-dependent oxidation of geranylgeraniol (GGOH), but the exact biochemical events giving rise to GGA in hepatoma cells remain unclear. Monoamine oxidase B (MOAB) has been suggested to be involved in GGOH oxidation. Here, using two human hepatoma cell lines, we investigated whether MAOB contributes to GGA biosynthesis. Using either HuH-7 cell lysates or recombinant human MAOB, we found that: 1) the MAO inhibitor tranylcypromine dose-dependently downregulates endogenous GGA levels in HuH-7 cells; and 2) siRNA-mediated MAOB silencing reduces intracellular GGA levels in HuH-7 and Hep3B cells. Unexpectedly, however, CRISPR/Cas9-generated MAOB-KO human hepatoma Hep3B cells had GGA levels similar to those in MAOB-WT cells. A sensitivity of GGA levels to siRNA-mediated MAOB downregulation was recovered when the MAOB-KO cells were transfected with a MAOB-expression plasmid, suggesting that MAOB is the enzyme primarily responsible for GGOH oxidation and that some other latent metabolic pathways may maintain endogenous GGA levels in the MAOB-KO hepatoma cells. Along with the previous findings, these results provide critical insights into the biological roles of human MAOB and provide evidence that hepatic MAOB is involved in endogenous GGA biosynthesis via GGOH oxidation.




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A novel GPER antagonist protects against the formation of estrogen-induced cholesterol gallstones in female mice [Research Articles]

Many clinical studies and epidemiological investigations have clearly demonstrated that women are twice as likely to develop cholesterol gallstones as men, and oral contraceptives and other estrogen therapies dramatically increase that risk. Further, animal studies have revealed that estrogen promotes cholesterol gallstone formation through the estrogen receptor (ER) α, but not ERβ, pathway. More importantly, some genetic and pathophysiological studies have found that G protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) 1 is a new gallstone gene, Lith18, on chromosome 5 in mice and produces additional lithogenic actions, working independently of ERα, to markedly increase cholelithogenesis in female mice. Based on computational modeling of GPER, a novel series of GPER-selective antagonists were designed, synthesized, and subsequently assessed for their therapeutic effects via calcium mobilization, cAMP, and ERα and ERβ fluorescence polarization binding assays. From this series of compounds, one new compound, 2-cyclohexyl-4-isopropyl-N-(4-methoxybenzyl)aniline (CIMBA), exhibits superior antagonism and selectivity exclusively for GPER. Furthermore, CIMBA reduces the formation of 17β-estradiol-induced gallstones in a dose-dependent manner in ovariectomized mice fed a lithogenic diet for 8 weeks. At 32 μg/day/kg CIMBA, no gallstones are found, even in ovariectomized ERα (–/–) mice treated with 6 μg/day 17β-estradiol and fed the lithogenic diet for 8 weeks. In conclusion, CIMBA treatment protects against the formation of estrogen-induced cholesterol gallstones by inhibiting the GPER signaling pathway in female mice. CIMBA may thus be a new agent for effectively treating cholesterol gallstone disease in women.­