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SAG Awards: Get a sneak peek at the likely Oscars acting winners

A large The Actor statue is placed on stage during 21st Annual SAG Awards Behind The Scenes At The Shrine Auditorium Jan. 23, 2015 in Los Angeles.; Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Mike Roe

Click here for KPCC's Awards Tracker

This Sunday's Screen Actors Guild Awards aren't as high profile as the Academy Awards, or even the Golden Globes, but they serve as one of the best predictors of who's going to take home a gold statue come Oscar night. Here's why.

Who votes for the SAG Awards?

SAG Award nominees are chosen by a committee of about 2,100 of the guild's members, according to awards news site Gold Derby. Then, all of the 111,228 members of the Guild have the chance to vote for their picks.

Meanwhile, the acting nominees for the Academy Awards are chosen by the 1,100 members in the Academy's actors branch, before being voted on by the Academy's full 5,700 members. Those actors are all part of SAG, so you're likely to see a strong correlation most years between the awards, particularly in the acting category.

How often do the SAG Awards predict the Oscar winners?

The SAG Awards have proven to be the best Oscar predictor in the acting category of any other major awards season prize since they began in 1995, both in nominations and winners. Of the 20 nominations and four winners from each shows, the overlap between the SAG Awards (aka "the Actors") and the Academy Awards in the last few years:

  • 2009: 18 nominations; 3 winners
  • 2010: 19 nominations; all 4 winners
  • 2011: 17 nominations; all 4 winners
  • 2012: 16 nominations; 3 winners
  • 2013: 15 nominations; 3 winners
  • 2014: 14 nominations; all 4 winners

This year, 17 nominees crossed over between the awards shows, with the Oscars matching up on all five nominations for best supporting actor and four of the five nominations in the other three acting categories.

Where have the SAG Awards differed from the Oscars?

SAG voters have lined up with the Academy on Best Actor 16 out of 20 times. The last time they differed from the Oscars was 2003, when Johnny Depp won at the SAG Awards for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl" before Sean Penn took the statue home at the Oscars for "Mystic River."

For Best Actress, SAG last split from Oscar in 2011, going with Viola Davis for "The Help" over eventual Oscar winner Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady." They've matched up 14 out of 20 years.

In the supporting categories, the SAG Awards haven't fared as well. They went 12 for 20 in Best Supporting Actor, and 13 for 20 in Best Supporting Actress. That one also has an asterisk — one of those was a tie, so if you don't count that one, they're also only 12 for 20.

What does this all mean for the Oscars?

The SAG Awards remain the ones to watch when it comes to the acting awards — though their Best Ensemble category, the SAG Awards version of Best Picture, doesn't have a particularly strong correlation to the Oscars Best Picture winner. (For that, you'll want to watch for the Producers Guild Awards.)

We're tracking awards season and what experts are predicting; see KPCC's Awards Tracker below or click here to see the full page. You can watch the Screen Actors Guild Awards this Sunday at 5 p.m. Pacific, 8 p.m. Eastern on both TBS and TNT.

Disclosure: Mike Roe, along with other members of KPCC's staff, are members of the Screen Actors Guild as part of their employment with KPCC.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.




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Jesse Chehak, Near Big Water

Jesse Chehak
Near Big Water, Utah, 2010
Website - JesseChehak.com

Born in Tarzana, California, Jesse Chehak studied photography and Art History at Sarah Lawrence College and is currently pursuing a MFA at the University of Arizona. Chehak has exhibited his large format prints in galleries and project spaces including Bruce Silverstein (New York), Danese (New York) and the Durham Art Guild (Durham, North Carolina.) He is currently seeking funding to publish his first monograph, Fool's Gold, and a gallery to exhibit and distribute the completed print edition. In 2005, Chehak joined M.A.P. and began executing commercial campaigns and editorial features for clients, including The New York Times, Wallpaper*, Newsweek, GQ, Ogilvy & Mather, Saatchi & Saatchi, Digitas, and others. Chehak has received notable attention for his work, including PDN30 in 2005, The Magenta Foundation's Flash Forward in 2007, a Baum Nomination in 2008, and AP25. He lives in Tucson and Los Angeles.




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Spot Report by OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine: SMM threatened at gunpoint near Lobacheve in Luhansk region

This report is for media and the general public.

At 10:10 on 2 August, an armed man at a known Ukrainian Armed Forces position wearing military-style clothing with no markings stopped two SMM vehicles in government-controlled areas travelling east on the road from Lopaskyne (government-controlled, 24km north-west of Luhansk) to Lobacheve (government-controlled, 17km north-west of Luhansk).  When one of the SMM monitors stepped out of the vehicle to speak with the man, the latter chambered a round into his submachine gun (AKSU-74) and after removing the weapon’s safety, pointed it at the SMM monitor and put his finger on the trigger. Speaking in Russian, the armed man told the SMM “Stop. You are not going anywhere”.

The SMM requested the armed man call his commander, which he did. Standing approximately two metres away, the man kept his gun pointed at the SMM monitor and spoke to someone in Russian on his handheld radio. Approximately five to seven minutes later, another man arrived at the scene carrying an assault rifle (AK-74) with a silencer. He was accompanied by three other armed men carrying assault rifles, some of whom appeared to be intoxicated, and appeared to be in a position of authority. Some of the men were dressed in military-style clothing. Using Russian and speaking in an aggressive manner, the man said that he and the other armed men present were members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The SMM monitor asked the man who appeared to be in charge to order the armed man to lower his weapon. He did so but the weapon was not made safe.

Speaking with the commander of the group, the SMM monitor tried to diffuse the situation by explaining the Mission’s mandate and after approximately fifteen minutes, the SMM was allowed to leave the area and proceed to Lobacheve to complete their tasks.

The SMM returned safely to its base at 16:00. The Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination was informed.

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  1. One dead after two reported explosions near Brazil’s Supreme Court  Al Jazeera English
  2. Brazil: 1 killed in explosions outside Supreme Court; judges safely evacuated  Hindustan Times
  3. Video: Explosions Go Off Near Brazil’s Government Offices  The New York Times
  4. One dead following blasts at Brazil Supreme Court  BBC.com
  5. One dead after explosion takes place outside Brazil's Supreme Court  The Times of India





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