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Top Diplomats from S. Korea, US Set to Hold Talks in Peru

[Politics] :
The top diplomats from South Korea and the United States will hold talks on Friday in Peru, on the sidelines of the joint meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) ministers for trade and foreign affairs. According to Seoul’s foreign ministry on Thursday, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will ...

[more...]




diplo

El baloncesto en Silla de Ruedas doblega la crisis diplomática

Pese a la crisis sin precedentes en las relaciones bilaterales, israelíes y turcos se encuentran y elogian en Israel con motivo del Europeo en Silla de Ruedas.




diplo

Margallo o el elogio de la desobediencia diplomática

El ministro de Exteriores se apunta a la tesis de que la actuación de algunos diplomáticos durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial estuvo guiada por sus convicciones personales, tomadas al margen de las órdenes que se les dieron.




diplo

The Black Keys, el diplodocus más funky del rock

El Funkasaurux Rex de The Black Keys moooola, que diría Homer.




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UN nuclear chief in Iran to 'reach diplomatic solutions'

Tehran, Iran — International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi was to hold talks with top Iranian officials Thursday on Tehran's nuclear program, a week after Donald Trump's re-election as US president. During his first term in the White House from 2017 to 2021, Trump was the architect of a policy called "maximum pressure," which levied against Tehran biting sanctions that had been lifted through a landmark nuclear agreement in 2015. Grossi, who is the director general of the UN agency, arrived at Tehran airport on Wednesday evening and was greeted by Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). Grossi is set to meet Thursday in Tehran with AEOI chief Mohammad Eslami as well as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was chief negotiator in the nuclear talks between Tehran and the major powers that resulted in the 2015 deal formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The deal, reached after 21 months of negotiations between Iran and world powers, gave Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program to guarantee that it could not develop a nuclear weapon -- something it has always denied wanting to do. Three years later, then-president Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement and reimposed heavy sanctions against Iran. Search for solutions A year later, Iran started to gradually roll back its commitments to the nuclear deal, which only allowed Tehran to enrich uranium to 3.65% purity. The IAEA says Iran has considerably increased its reserves of enriched uranium to 60%, close to the 90% needed to develop an atomic bomb. The head of the IAEA "will do what he can to prevent the situation going from bad to worse" given the significant differences between Tehran and Western capitals, analyst Ali Vaez, an Iran expert for the Crisis Group, a U.S.-based think tank, told AFP. "The one who left the agreement was not Iran, it was America," Iran's government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said on Wednesday. "Mr. Trump once tried the path of maximum pressure and saw that this path did not work." Grossi's visit comes only two days after the defense minister of Iran's arch enemy Israel warned that the Islamic republic was "more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities." The two countries have exchanged missile fire in recent months in a context of high tensions in the Middle East due to the war waged by Israel in the Gaza Strip against Hamas and in Lebanon against Hezbollah, two militant groups allied with Iran. Trump's return to the White House in January also raises fears of rising tensions between Iran and his country. "The margins for maneuver are beginning to shrink," Grossi warned in an interview with AFP on Tuesday, adding that "it is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions." Religious decree Grossi has said that while Iran does not have any nuclear weapons at this moment in time, it does have plenty of nuclear materials that could be used eventually to make a weapon. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who came to office in July with hopes of improving ties with the West and having sanctions lifted, favors a revival of the nuclear deal. But all efforts to get the nuclear agreement off life support have so far failed. The IAEA chief has repeatedly called for more cooperation from Iran. In recent years, Tehran has decreased its interaction with the UN agency by deactivating surveillance devices needed to monitor the nuclear program and effectively barring its inspectors. The foundations of Iran's nuclear program date back to the late 1950s, when the United States signed a civil cooperation agreement with Iran's then-Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. In 1970, Iran ratified the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires signatory states to declare and place their nuclear materials under the IAEA control. But with Iran threatening to hit back at Israel for its latest missile strikes, some lawmakers in the Islamic republic have called on the government to revise its nuclear doctrine to pursue nuclear weapons. The parliamentarians called on supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate authority in Iran, to reconsider his long-standing religious edict or fatwa banning nuclear weapons. The Islamic republic has maintained its policy against acquiring nuclear weapons, insisting its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful.




diplo

UN nuclear chief in Iran in search of ‘diplomatic solutions’

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi (right) meets Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, upon his arrival in Tehran, on Wednesday.—AFP

TEHRAN: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi arrived in Iran on Wednesday for discussions on Tehran’s nuclear programme, a week after Donald Trump’s election as the new US president.

Grossi, who is the director general of the UN agency, was greeted on Wednesday evening at the airport by Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran or AEOI.

Grossi is set to meet on Thursday in Tehran with AEOI chief Mohammad Eslami as well as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was chief negotiator in the nuclear talks between Tehran and the major powers that resulted in the 2015 deal formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.

The deal, reached after 21 months of negotiations between Iran and world powers, gave Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme to guarantee that it could not develop a nuclear weapon — something it has always denied wanting to do. Three years later, then-president Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement and reimposed heavy sanctions against Iran.

European powers pushing for resolution against Iran at IAEA

‘Comprehensive report’

European powers are pushing for a new resolution against Iran by the UN atomic watchdog’s board to pressure Tehran over its poor cooperation, diplomats say.

Such resolutions risk further diplomatic tension with Iran. The resolution would task the IAEA with issuing a so-called “comprehensive report” on Iran’s nuclear activities in addition to its regular quarterly ones, which would describe in more detail and put further focus on problem areas like Iran’s continued failure to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

The aim is to force Iran back to the negotiating table to agree new restrictions on its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

“Our concerns about Iranian nuclear activity are well known. It feels a natural point to be asking the IAEA for a thorough report. That then provides a basis to deal with Iranian behaviour,” a European diplomat said, one of five who said France, Britain and Germany are pushing for a resolution.

The United States has not been the driving force behind the resolution but is still expected to back it, as happened with the last resolution against Iran in June, diplomats said. The European powers seeking a resolution, known as the “E3”, are discussing the draft with the outgoing US administration.

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024




diplo

US will back South Asia climate diplomacy: White House official

AFTER Pakistan floated the idea of ‘climate diplomacy’ to tackle cross-border pollution in light of smog which has engulfed vast tracts of India and Pakistan, a US official indicated on the sidelines of COP29 that the White House may throw its weight behind any initiative taken in this regard.

Last month, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz expressed her government’s intention to approach India to jointly counter the air pollution, which mostly comes from vehicular and industrial emissions, and is exacerbated in winter due to stubble burning.

Talking to Dawn on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku, Ali Zaidi — national climate adviser to the Biden administration — said the US was “100 per cent supportive” of partnership-based approaches to tackle problems that cannot be solved in isolation.

“In the US, we have this thing called the ‘good neighbour rule’, which governs smog. It actually was developed when we witnessed exactly this phenomenon in the US. So you know when it comes to cross-border pollution and cross-border issues, we are 100pc suportive of partnership-based approaches to tackle problems that cannot be solved on their own,” he said in response to a question about smog, which has made life unbearable for millions in Pakistan.

The White House official said the US was already active in the Hindu Kush — often referred to as ‘The Third Pole’ for housing the most glaciers in the world outside the polar regions — to better coordinate the mitigation response, because environmental impacts from glaciers do not isolate themselves to one jurisdiction.

“I think the regional solutions are a necessary complement to this sort of multilateral dialogue,” he said, referring to the COP summit.

The adviser said regional cooperation among relevant parties to address climate change would have more impact than putting “another ornament on a 1,000-page document (COP)”.

In response to a question about the failure of the world to help Pakistan after the 2022 floods caused damages to the tune of $30 billion, he said the global community needed to reinvent its approach to rebuilding from disasters, particularly by investing in pre-disaster mitigation.

According to the White House official, the US took a really long time to reengineer its thinking domestically in terms of building resilience into the recovery.

He favoured approaches that ran “consistent with the financial position” of states that needed to do rebuilding, saying there was a need to mobilise more countries to move more capital to help with adaptation and mitigation in these vulnerable countries.

In response to a question about the loan-laden climate finance framework, he said, “If you are targeting projects that have very clear cash flow and a strong counterparty then debt works just fine.”

He agreed some concessionary capital did need to come in depending on the technological aspect, the richness of the resources and the maturity of the market, while referring to India’s solar projects.

Vulnerable areas need significant grant-based aid, but there is still a need to figure out how to monetise risk reduction associated with adaptation finance and that’s why it was difficult to do. These places are going to soak up more grant-based finance, he said.

Speaking about the Trump-led US administration all set to take over from the Biden administration, he appeared optimistic, saying the states in the US will figure out how to provide the policy support even if the federal government stopped being part of it. About the US, he said it should remain part of the dialogue and be the author of the roadmap that will govern the contours of climate finance for decades to come.

Produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024





diplo

European powers pushing for resolution against Iran at IAEA, diplomats say

PARIS/VIENNA — European powers are pushing for a new resolution against Iran by the United Nations atomic watchdog's board next week to pressure Tehran over its poor co-operation, as the world awaits the return of US President-elect Donald Trump, diplomats say. Such resolutions risk further diplomatic tension with Iran. It has retaliated to previous ones and other criticism at the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors by stepping up its nuclear activities and barring top IAEA inspectors, heightening Western concerns about its aims. The resolution would task the IAEA with issuing a so-called "comprehensive report" on Iran's nuclear activities in addition to its regular quarterly ones, which would describe in more detail and put further focus on problem areas like Iran's continued failure to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.




diplo

Vlad Jr. diplomatic in discussing MLB time frame

With each passing day, the hype continues to grow around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but MLB Pipeline's top-ranked prospect seems to be keeping a pretty level head throughout all the chaos.




diplo

UBI, NIIT To Offer PG Diploma In Banking And Finance

United Bank of India and NIIT Institute of Finance Bankingand Insurance Training (IFBI)




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Un diplomate chinois � l'ONU exhorte Isra�l � cesser d'utiliser l'aide humanitaire � Gaza comme monnaie d'�change

Fu Cong, repr�sentant permanent de la Chine aupr�s des Nations Unies, a exhort� mardi Isra�l � lever les restrictions sur l'acc�s humanitaire � Gaza et � cesser d'utiliser l'aide humanitaire comme monnaie d'�change, alors que la situation...




diplo

Foreign diplomacy

In the ever-changing global scenario, one country alone cannot decide the destiny of the world




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Maleeha Lodhi: Spilling tea with the architect of Pakistan’s diplomatic coup at the UN

Maleeha Lodhi discusses the future of IoK at the UNSC, Pakistan's role at the UN and the personal attacks against...




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Chinese security services are blocking America's diplomatic efforts

American diplomatic efforts to conduct people-to-people contacts and exchanges in China are being blocked by Chinese intelligence and security services.




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Australia's U.S. diplomat pushes back on criticism of his posture toward China

Kevin Rudd, the Australian ambassador to the United States, wants to know who is criticizing him over his views of China.




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Power and diplomacy

The impeachment inquiry has exposed some of the ways in which the US diplomatic corps feels undermined and undervalued by the Trump administration. We visit two US universities training a future generation of US diplomats to find out whether students there are reconsidering their career choice. Also, Samantha Power reflects on some of the toughest decisions she had to make while US Ambassador to the UN; we visit the Museum of the Palestinian People that is just blocks away from the White House; the rise and fall of Richard Holbrooke, a statesman known for his diplomatic breakthroughs and outsized ego; and beatboxers on a musical mission to bring the world together.

(Photo: A view of the Washington Monument and the US Department of State's flag in Washington, DC. Credit: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)




diplo

New U.S.-Cuban youth orchestra to create diplomatic notes

The idea for the ensemble grew out of the Minnesota Orchestra's visit to Cuba in 2015.




diplo

Another success of Brazilian diplomacy

The so-called “Peace Summit” held in Switzerland had an obvious outcome. It didn't lead anywhere. It could, since from the beginning the failure of the alleged negotiations was imminent. Convened at the request of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the high-level meeting was not attended by Russia. As the Brazilian government rightly argued, a meeting that wants to discuss the steps to end a conflict cannot take place without all sides of the conflict being represented and with the same rights to speak. Russia was not invited. He had also already said that he would not participate in a meeting in Switzerland anyway, since the country abandoned its traditional neutrality status by joining the United States and Europe's campaign against the Russians.




diplo

N. Korea’s Top Diplomat Departs for Russia

[Inter-Korea] :
North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, has reportedly left Pyongyang to visit Russia amid international criticism over the North’s participation in the war between Russia and Ukraine.  According to the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) on Tuesday, a delegation led by Choe ...

[more...]




diplo

Sweet Diplomacy bakes up gluten-free treats

Sweet Diplomacy now has a brick-and-mortar location in Los Altos, CA, a commercial kitchen in Boulder, CO, and an online menu shipping across the U.S.




diplo

How the hunt for nurses with fake diplomas impacts OHS

The hunting season for nurses with a fake academic diploma opened during late January 2023, and thousands were found.




diplo

Billy R. Clay, BS, MS, DVM, Diplomate of ABVT, has been Inducted into the Prestigious Marquis Who's Who Biographical Registry

Billy R. Clay is recognized for his expert leadership of VETTA Consulting, LLC




diplo

Signature Image Global School Launches Advanced Diplomas to Jumpstart Future for Graduates and Propel Careers for Professionals

Signature Image Global School, the online academic institution affiliated with and stemming from Signature Image Academy International in Asia Singapore, announces the launch of its cutting-edge Advanced Diploma online learning programmes.




diplo

Marquis Who's Who Honors Jia Zhao, Esq., for Expertise in International Law and Diplomacy

Jia Zhao, Esq., is a retired attorney whose career spanned over 45 years




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David Sedgwick Lobel-Mandrake and Dr. Lana Lubimoff Appointed to Senior Leadership Roles at International Society of Diplomats

David Sedgwick Lobel-Mandrake and Dr. Lana Lubimoff appointed to leadership roles at the International Society of Diplomats, advancing global diplomacy.




diplo

CNN: At UN climate summit, ‘diplomats are fretting over what Trump’s victory means for the planet’ – ‘It’s a depressing story’

CNN on Trump's victory: A U-turn on US climate policy could be disastrous for the planet, as it raises the risk of emulation. When America does something on the world stage, at least some countries tend to follow. “Paris is one of those agreements where you need a critical mass of economic powers and emitters, past and present, to actually be able to address this challenge,” said Oli Brown, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House. ... 

“And it will allow big emitters to not take the kind of ambitious action that’s needed, because they don’t want to be at a competitive disadvantage to the US, if the US is unburdened by any sense of collective responsibility,” he told CNN. ... 

But the real sting is, that as the world’s biggest economy, the US has more power than any other country to fund climate change action in the developing world. Even if it stays in the Paris Agreement, an “America First” Trump administration is unlikely to be more generous with grants and loans for other countries’ green transition. That alone sets the talks up for failure — their main aim was to agree to a transfer $1 trillion a year from wealthy countries and institutions to help developing nations build clean energy systems and to adapt to worsening extreme weather, like heat waves, floods, drought, storms and wildfires.




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COP29 Azerbaijan fossil fuel scandal sums up the crisis of modern climate diplomacy – Host country ‘attempted to use the UN climate summit to broker fossil fuel deals’

https://www.intellinews.com/cop29-azerbaijan-fossil-fuel-scandal-sums-up-the-crisis-of-modern-climate-diplomacy-352396/ By bne IntelliNews November 11, 2024 A damning investigation has revealed that Azerbaijan’s COP29 leadership attempted to use the UN climate summit to broker fossil fuel deals, drawing fierce criticism from former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, who condemned the actions as “a treason” to the climate process. Secret recordings and documents obtained through an undercover […]




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Pradales, con frac y sonriente, preside con la cónsul de Venezuela el centenario del cuerpo diplomático en Euskadi

El lehendakari y Glenna Cabello protagonizan un cálido encuentro en el museo Guggenheim para celebrar el centenario de la creación del grupo que une a los cónsules en Bilbao. Venezuela mantiene encarcelados a los bilbaínos Andrés Martínez y José María Basoa desde los primeros días de septiembre Leer



  • Selección de Fútbol de Venezuela - MX
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diplo

Diplomatic officer finds security right at home

Life is all about priorities, protection and being present. Gigi Schumm welcomes Assiya Ashraf-Miller from the State Department's diplomatic security bureau.

The post Diplomatic officer finds security right at home first appeared on Federal News Network.




diplo

Diplo's Alleged Stalker Claims He Sleeps With Minors and Drugs Women

The woman, who is sued by the member of super group LSD for alleged harassment, is firing back at the DJ, alleging that he's the predator and that his lawsuit is a 'scare tactic.'




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Venezuela, Nicaragua e integración regional, ¿qué pasa con la diplomacia?

Panelistas analizaron el liderazgo que podría tener el presidente Petro en la región; creen que es fundamental la defensa de derechos humanos y la democracia.




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Qué tan profunda puede ser la crisis diplomática Colombia-Guatemala?

Panelistas analizaron el cruce de declaraciones entre ambos países. También plantearon los desafíos de la lucha contra las drogas ante pronunciamiento de EE. UU. sobre cultivos ilícitos.




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Posición de Colombia en el conflicto israelí, ¿qué efecto diplomático tiene?

Panelistas consideran que el gobierno colombiano se equivoca al no rechazar la violencia ejercida por Hamás, pero creen que tener una posición clara permitiría ejercer diplomacia discreta.




diplo

¿Qué busca el Gobierno al convocar al cuerpo diplomático?

Panelistas creen que hace parte de la estrategia internacional del Presidente para posicionar la narrativa de un golpe de Estado. También debatieron sobre el decreto que permite a comunidades indígenas ser autoridad ambiental.




diplo

Otra vez el ministro Diego Molano metiéndonos en líos diplomáticos, ahora con Rusia: El personaje del día de Melquisedec Torres en La Luciér




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Thomas Shannon, diplomático estadounidense en retiro experto en Latinoamérica




diplo

¿Cuál ha sido el impacto en la frontero luego de fortalecer las relaciones diplomáticas entre Venezuela - Colombia?




diplo

VIDEO: “Puta…cómo se ganaron el maldito diploma”caso de maltrato laboral en Medicina Legal

La Unidad Investigativa de Caracol Radio revela una serie de presuntas irregularidades en Medicina Legal





diplo

China-Aligned MirrorFace Hackers Target EU Diplomats with World Expo 2025 Bait

The China-aligned threat actor known as MirrorFace has been observed targeting a diplomatic organization in the European Union, marking the first time the hacking crew has targeted an entity in the region. "During this attack, the threat actor used as a lure the upcoming World Expo, which will be held in 2025 in Osaka, Japan," ESET said in its APT Activity Report for the period April to




diplo

Undercurrents: Episode 8 - Ronan Farrow on Diplomacy




diplo

Securing Peace in the 21st Century: The Roles of Diplomacy and Statesmanship




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American Diplomacy: Past, Present and Future




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The Korean Peninsula: A Diplomatic Outlook




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Securing Our Climate Future: Risk, Resilience and Diplomacy




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Technology Diplomacy in the Digital Age





diplo

Nile Basin States Must Persist with Water Diplomacy

11 August 2020

Owen Grafham

Assistant Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

Ahmed Soliman

Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme

Dr Nouar Shamout

Water Resources and Sustainability (Independent Researcher)
After multiple failed negotiations, any serious breakdown in current talks mediated by the African Union would be dangerous for regional stability. The international community must ramp up its support for this crucial diplomacy to ensure that an agreement is reached.

2020-08-12-Dam-Nile-Ethiopia

The Blue Nile river passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) near Guba in Ethiopia. Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images.

Ongoing talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan attempting to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the dispute over the Blue Nile Basin offer a unique opportunity for trans-boundary cooperation and have huge significance for a region dealing with multiple complex issues.

With trust clearly at a premium, the continuation of talks demonstrates good faith, but there is an urgent need to strengthen negotiations through all available diplomatic channels. The African Union (AU) is well-placed to continue mediating, but sustained high-level engagement is also needed from regional and international partners such as the EU and US, as well as multilateral support in terms of both financial and technical resources.

A tense history to overcome

At the heart of this dispute is the new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) – set to become Africa's biggest hydroelectric dam when complete. Egypt and Sudan, who lie downstream, fear that Ethiopia, as the dam builders, will effectively gain control of the flow of the Nile, a turn of events that radically changes the way that water resources have been shared in the region.

Egypt - widely described as a ‘gift of the Nile’ - is almost entirely dependent on the Nile to meet its various water needs, and is the major beneficiary of the 1929 and 1959 agreements on using the shared river’s water. The 1959 agreement gives Egypt a share of 55.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) annually out of 74 billion available, and a veto right over projects being developed upstream, while Sudan is allocated 18.5 BCM.

Crucially neither of these old agreements recognises the interests of other upstream countries on the Nile, some of which have asserted their own development ambitions on the river over the last two decades and pushed for a new agreement to enshrine equitable rights and harmonious use of the water.

One such country is Ethiopia where the Blue Nile River originates. The GERD is a central part of Ethiopia’s ambitions for economic prosperity. The dam, which is largely self-financed, will have a capacity of 74 BCM when completed, enough to provide abundant cheap energy to power both national and regional developments. Currently, more than half Ethiopia’s 110 million people do not have access to electricity, but demand is increasing by 30 per cent annually.

Unclear impacts

The unclear impact of the GERD – and lower volumes of water – on food security and agriculture complicate the negotiations. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan’s populations are set to increase significantly in the coming decades and each are already dealing with significant challenges around food insecurity and nutrition, which in Egypt and Sudan, are partly exacerbated by the colonial-era agricultural structures set up to exploit cash crops.

Any change in water quality would have a huge impact on the 67% of Egyptian farm holdings considered as ‘small’ – the majority of which are on the banks of the Nile. And changes in water volumes might increase desertification and loss of livelihoods, potentially causing civil unrest if not addressed properly.

The environmental impact of the GERD on the complex Nile River system also raises concerns about the river’s ecosystem, the surrounding environment, and the river’s downstream course. Despite talks in 2015 leading to an agreement on declaration of principles, thorough technical studies have not been implemented.

Although there is little evidence that overall water levels in the Nile Basin have reduced in recent years, climate change is causing more variation in the Nile’s flow which increases the risk of flooding and extended droughts. Downstream states are also concerned about impacts from any breaches, damage or failure of the dam, including possible seismic activity.

Of course, the GERD also offers some added value to the downstream states. The dam can help manage floods in Sudan, reduce the significant water loss to evaporation - as in the case of Lake Nasser - and lessen the effect of sediment on downstream dams. In Sudan, where less than one-quarter of the estimated 70 million hectares of arable land is currently cultivated, any reduction in seasonal flooding would boost agricultural output and aid economic recovery. The dam will offer Ethiopia significant opportunities for the trade of cheap renewable energy to Sudan and neighbouring states earning it a possible $1bn a year in revenues. And adopting a more ‘basin-integrated’ management approach can be a springboard for enhanced regional cooperation between the three states.

But geopolitical tensions between the three have escalated since satellite imagery revealed apparent significant filling of the dam prior to reaching any agreement. Ethiopia has long said it would begin filling the dam during its rainy season, but insists the filling occurred naturally through June-July from rainfall and runoff and its first-year target of 4.9 BCM was reached without needing to close the dam gates. Egypt and Sudan have restated their calls for a binding legal agreement on the rules for filling and management of disputes.

Security response not the answer

Internal pressures are particularly acute, with all three countries experiencing public uprisings and regime change in the last decade, and current leaders are under pressure not to appear weak from influential sections of society pushing a hard nationalist line.

Hawkish elements in Egypt have long supported a more securitized response to any potential threats from the GERD, and the recent request from President Sisi that Egyptian air forces be ready to handle targets inside and outside of the country was interpreted as a threat to Turkey in Libya, and Ethiopia.

Egypt has also asked for the GERD to be discussed at the UN Security Council but Ethiopia’s Nobel peace prize-winning prime minister Abiy Ahmed, facing significant internal unrest himself, has made it clear that a costly confrontation is not in anyone’s interests. Meanwhile, Sudan’s transitional government - being jointly run by civilians and the military - is keen to assert its own interests on the Nile but has also played a conciliatory role with its neighbours. Increased engagement of Gulf states in the Horn of Africa and the impacts of conflicts in Libya, Yemen and Syria add more complexity to the overall regional picture.

Certainly none of the major parties sharing the river would benefit from a hard security response to the dam. For Egypt, such a move would torpedo its re-engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa under President Sisi and likely lead to its expulsion from the AU. For Ethiopia, overt conflict would be a huge setback for its development and regional integration ambitions. And Sudan’s nascent transition can ill-afford to be part of another regional conflict.

Thankfully, such an outcome is both highly unlikely and historically rare, and behind the scenes there has been significant progress. Some reports suggest a provisional agreement has been reached on the volume of filling required and the timeframe for the filling to happen. If so, most dispute now revolves around what to do in the event of a drought, provisions for information exchange, and how to translate all this into a binding agreement.

A two-phase approach, consisting of a short-term deal on filling and operating the GERD followed by discussions on future developments and allocation, could be the best way to reach a lasting settlement and replace the extremely outdated existing water-sharing agreements.

Reaching a successful deal between the three countries is not easy as it requires brave leadership and political goodwill, a de-escalation of long-standing rhetoric and brinkmanship, and a willingness to compromise on all sides to ensure the gaps between the countries' positions are significantly narrowed.

What is required is a determined effort to keep the countries talking and provide the solutions which can bridge the parties’ differences, build confidence, and secure the vital diplomatic success so badly needed for wider stability and progress in the region.




diplo

Economic Diplomacy in the Era of Great Powers

17 September 2020

Dr Linda Yueh

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme and US and the Americas Programme
The 21st-century global economy has different drivers from those in the previous century. Amid ever more politicized trade relations, economic diplomacy needs a more transparent framework.

2020-09-17-Trump-Economy-WEF-World-Economic-Forum-Davos

US president Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22, 2020. Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images.

The emergence of a multipolar global economy in which the US is no longer the main engine of growth has boosted the role of economic diplomacy, the setting of foreign economic policy. While the EU remains the world’s biggest economic bloc and the US is still an economic powerhouse, it is Asia – China in particular – which has created hundreds of millions of new middle-class consumers, helping to drive global economic growth.

This shift has ignited an era of competition between the US and China and, by implication, a debate about the merits of different political and legal systems. The difficulty for the rest of the world is how best to navigate this highly polarized climate – in recent history, only the Cold War comes close to having matched the adversarial dynamics of such a divided international community.

In conducting economic diplomacy, governments should consider their economic strengths, the importance of transparency, and how best to operate in a fragmented international system.

First, the setting of trade and investment policy should take into account developments in the global economy. One trend worth noting is the rising importance of services – in particular digital services – in international trade. The expanding cross-border trade in intangibles such as business services and data means the negotiation, definition and enforcement of standards to regulate these are of growing importance for the global economy, and for policymakers in many countries.

In contrast, negotiations around merchandise trade are likely to take a somewhat lower profile. Under the World Trade Organization (WTO), tariffs on manufactured goods have dropped significantly in any case – though there is still scope to lower them. Contemporary diplomacy, as well as disputes, around the lowering or raising of barriers to international trade will increasingly concern non-tariff measures applicable to services rather than those, such as tariffs, that traditionally apply to goods.

For service-based economies, it is vital free-trade agreements (FTAs) encompass regulations and standards for intangibles. But this is difficult in a multipolar global economy where the US, China and the EU all have different legal and regulatory systems, and raises the prospect of a fragmented global trading system divided into blocs of countries adhering to different standards.

A pluralistic or mini-multilateral approach to trade such as the stalled Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) could help resolve elements of this division. TiSA was launched in 2013 by a group of advanced economies, not the entirety of the WTO, to further opening up global services trade. However, talks have been on hold since 2016 and, in the current climate, it is near impossible to conclude negotiations when the major economies do not come to the table and instead promote their own standards with their closest trading partners.

Second, policymakers should consider that, in an era of heightened trade tensions, any framework for economic diplomacy needs to be transparent if it is to be trusted and credible. Such a framework could centre on commercial openness and consistency with a country’s foreign and intelligence policy aims. For example, clearly spelling out how a country reviews prospective foreign investment and applying this consistently would demonstrate that all projects are treated equally without singling out any individual country. This would be an improvement over an ad hoc and less transparent approach .

A major challenge in creating a ‘principle-based’ economic diplomacy framework of this kind is reconciling competing policy aims. To this end, several key questions need answering. Should trade agreements encompass non-economic elements, such as foreign policy aims? Do concerns over national security mean that trade and investment agreements should favour allies? Could such a framework assess a trading or investment partner in terms of national security as well as potential economic benefit?

A country should also re-think how to undertake a wider international role when embarking on economic diplomacy. The inability of the major powers to set new global rules has had a detrimental impact on an international system under significant strain. The stalling of multilateral trade talks and urgency of international coordinated action on global public goods, such as health and the environment, shows there is a pressing need for a new approach to international relations.

Economic diplomacy could, and should, bolster the rules-based multilateral system. The challenge is engaging the major powers without whom widespread adoption of global policies and standards is less likely. Yet the chances of wider adoption might actually be better if a proposal does not come from either the US or China. This opens up the opportunity for other countries to be ‘honest brokers’ and potentially improve their own international standing.

In an era of increasing tension between great powers, economic diplomacy requires re-tooling. It should consider not just economic considerations, but also broader foreign policy aims, greater transparency, and a pluralistic approach to global rules to strengthen the multilateral system.