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Integrating Refugees and Asylum Seekers into the German Economy and Society: Empirical Evidence and Policy Objectives

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 10:32:57 -0500

As the top destination in Europe for asylum seekers in recent years, Germany has rolled out a number of integration policy changes. Based on an early look at how newcomers’ integration is progressing, the report finds the policies have had ambiguous implications. The report also provides insights into the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the asylum seeker and refugee population.


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Handmade egg noodles Hunan-style with smoked bacon and chilli

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 19:47:00 +1100

This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Neil Perry. Neil's new book is "Spice Temple."


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Okonomiyake - Japanese pizza with soy, honey and ginger sauce

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Mon, 16 Nov 2015 14:15:00 +0800

Referred to as a Japanese 'pizza', okonomiyaki is probably best described as a cabbage fritter. There are many versions that can include seafood, pork belly, kimchi or cheese, and either served with the sauce described or with Japanese mayonnaise. Delicious snack food, which can also be a meal.


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Tasha's simple no fuss Christmas cake

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Wed, 23 Dec 2015 10:22:00 +1100

I absolutely adore a rich moist fruit cake laced with brandy. We love this cake in our house and will stay fresh in a airtight tin for months.


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Potatoes with Lemon and Oregano

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 14:31:00 +1000

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Kathy Tsaples.


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Satay chicken with zucchini noodles

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Tue, 17 May 2016 11:58:00 +0800

2 tablespoons sesame oil 2 teaspoons garlic, minced 1 cup shredded carrots 1 cup cabbage, thinly sliced 1 red capsicum, thinly sliced 1 green chilli, sliced 3 large zucchini, spiralled into noodles 2 large chicken breasts, cooked & shredded Toppings 1/2 cup cashew nuts, chopped spring onion Satay sauce 1/2 cup peanut butter 1/3 cup honey 1/3 cup soy sauce 2 tablespoons sesame oil 2 tablespoons rice vinegar 2 teaspoons fresh ginger, minced 1 tablespoon sweet chilli sauce


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Mocha-Cappuccino Caramel Biscuit Cheesecake

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Mon, 23 May 2016 11:39:00 +1000

This indulgent cheesecake is as light as air, with all the ingredients of an afternoon tea rolled into one - coffee, chocolate and caramel biscuits.


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Beetroot and pinot risotto with king prawns

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Fri, 19 Aug 2016 10:37:00 +1000

Four of my favourite ingredients combined into one dish!


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Pho Noodle Salad with Tofu, Wombok and Broccolini

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Tue, 06 Sep 2016 12:32:00 +1000

This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, shared by Hetty McKinnon, founder of Surry Hills community kitchen Arthur Street Kitchen and author of new cookbook 'Neighbourhood'.


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Snowy's special rice

By www.abc.net.au
Published On :: Wed, 30 Nov 2016 05:39:00 +1100

100 ml extra virgin olive oil 1 brown onion, finely sliced 1 garlic clove, finely sliced 500 g basmati or jasmine rice 125 ml (4 fl oz/1/2 cup) dry white wine 1 fresh bay leaf 400 ml (14 fl oz) warm water Sea salt


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Start-Up Visas: A Passport for Innovation and Growth?

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Tue, 23 Jul 2019 10:50:22 -0400

Over the last decade, a number of governments have launched start-up visa programs in the hopes of attracting talented immigrant entrepreneurs with innovative business ideas. With the track record for these programs a mixed one, this report explains how embedding start-up visas within a broader innovation strategy could lead to greater success.


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Respuestas latinoamericanas a las crisis migratorias venezolanas y nicaragüenses

By www.migrationpolicy.org
Published On :: Fri, 01 Nov 2019 17:38:50 -0400

Responsables de políticos principales y partes interesadas de América Latina, así como representantes de instituciones internacionales claves, ofrecen sus puntos de vista sobre los desafíos futuros mientras gobiernos latinoamericanos buscan establecer las estrategias para responder a flujos migratorios forzados a gran escala, como los de Venezuela y Nicaragua.


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    La Bienvenida Se Agota para Colombianos en Ecuador Mientras Venezolanos Se Hacen Más Visibles

    By www.migrationpolicy.org
    Published On :: Thu, 09 Jan 2020 10:42:56 -0500

    Aunque colombianos encontraron un refugio cálido en Ecuador después de ser desplazados de su país por una guerra civil que duro décadas, la vida se ha vuelto más difícil para ellos en los últimos años, en parte como resultado del flujo de venezolanos que buscan seguridad. Este artículo se basa en encuestas de migrantes en Quito, comparando y contrastando las experiencias de colombianos y venezolanos, y evaluando sus percepciones de discriminación, victimización y esperanzas para el futuro.


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    Teen knocks off Parko in final

    By www.abc.net.au
    Published On :: Tue, 08 Nov 2011 10:45:00 +1100

    Australian Joel Parkinson has lost the final of the Rip Curl Pro Search to rising Brazilian teenage sensation Gabriel Medina in San Francisco.


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    Myocardial Ischemic Burden and Differences in Prognosis Among Patients With and Without Diabetes: Results From the Multicenter International REFINE SPECT Registry

    By care.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2020-01-20T12:00:30-08:00

    OBJECTIVE

    Prevalence and prognostic impact of cardiovascular disease differ between patients with or without diabetes. We aimed to explore differences in the prevalence and prognosis of myocardial ischemia by automated quantification of total perfusion deficit (TPD) among patients with and without diabetes.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    Of 20,418 individuals who underwent single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging, 2,951 patients with diabetes were matched to 2,951 patients without diabetes based on risk factors using propensity score. TPD was categorized as TPD = 0%, 0% < TPD < 1%, 1% ≤ TPD < 5%, 5% ≤ TPD ≤ 10%, and TPD >10%. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or late revascularization.

     RESULTS

    MACE risk was increased in patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes at each level of TPD above 0 (P < 0.001 for interaction). In patients with TPD >10%, patients with diabetes had greater than twice the MACE risk compared with patients without diabetes (annualized MACE rate 9.4 [95% CI 6.7–11.6] and 3.9 [95% CI 2.8–5.6], respectively, P < 0.001). Patients with diabetes with even very minimal TPD (0% < TPD < 1%) experienced a higher risk for MACE than those with 0% TPD (hazard ratio 2.05 [95% CI 1.21–3.47], P = 0.007). Patients with diabetes with a TPD of 0.5% had a similar MACE risk as patients without diabetes with a TPD of 8%.

     CONCLUSIONS

    For every level of TPD >0%, even a very minimal deficit of 0% < TPD < 1%, the MACE risk was higher in the patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes. Patients with diabetes with minimal ischemia had comparable MACE risk as patients without diabetes with significant ischemia.


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    Novel Biomarkers for Change in Renal Function in People With Dysglycemia

    By care.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2020-01-20T12:00:30-08:00

    OBJECTIVE

    Diabetes is a major risk factor for renal function decline and failure. The availability of multiplex panels of biochemical markers provides the opportunity to identify novel biomarkers that can better predict changes in renal function than routinely available clinical markers.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    The concentration of 239 biochemical markers was measured in stored serum from participants in the biomarker substudy of Outcome Reduction With Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) trial. Repeated-measures mixed-effects models were used to compute the annual change in eGFR (measured as mL/min/1.73 m2/year) for the 7,482 participants with a recorded baseline and follow-up eGFR. Linear regression models using forward selection were used to identify the independent biomarker determinants of the annual change in eGFR after accounting for baseline HbA1c, baseline eGFR, and routinely measured clinical risk factors. The incidence of the composite renal outcome (i.e., renal replacement therapy, renal death, renal failure, albuminuria progression, doubling of serum creatinine) and death within each fourth of change in eGFR predicted from these models was also estimated.

     RESULTS

    During 6.2 years of median follow-up, the median annual change in eGFR was –0.18 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. Fifteen biomarkers independently predicted eGFR decline after accounting for cardiovascular risk factors, as did 12 of these plus 1 additional biomarker after accounting for renal risk factors. Every 0.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 predicted annual fall in eGFR predicted a 13% (95% CI 12, 14%) higher mortality.

     CONCLUSIONS

    Adding up to 16 biomarkers to routinely measured clinical risk factors improves the prediction of annual change in eGFR in people with dysglycemia.


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    Visit-to-Visit HbA1c Variability Is Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Microvascular Complications in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes

    By care.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2020-01-20T12:00:30-08:00

    OBJECTIVE

    To investigate the association between visit-to-visit HbA1c variability and cardiovascular events and microvascular complications in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    This retrospective cohort study analyzed patients from Tayside and Fife in the Scottish Care Information–Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC) who were observable from the diagnosis of diabetes and had at least five HbA1c measurements before the outcomes were evaluated. We used the previously reported HbA1c variability score (HVS), calculated as the percentage of the number of changes in HbA1c >0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) among all HbA1c measurements within an individual. The association between HVS and 10 outcomes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

     RESULTS

    We included 13,111–19,883 patients in the analyses of each outcome. The patients with HVS >60% were associated with elevated risks of all outcomes compared with the lowest quintile (for example, HVS >80 to ≤100 vs. HVS ≥0 to ≤20, hazard ratio 2.38 [95% CI 1.61–3.53] for major adverse cardiovascular events, 2.4 [1.72–3.33] for all-cause mortality, 2.4 [1.13–5.11] for atherosclerotic cardiovascular death, 2.63 [1.81–3.84] for coronary artery disease, 2.04 [1.12–3.73] for ischemic stroke, 3.23 [1.76–5.93] for heart failure, 7.4 [3.84–14.27] for diabetic retinopathy, 3.07 [2.23–4.22] for diabetic peripheral neuropathy, 5.24 [2.61–10.49] for diabetic foot ulcer, and 3.49 [2.47–4.95] for new-onset chronic kidney disease). Four sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for time-weighted average HbA1c, confirmed the robustness of the results.

     CONCLUSIONS

    Our study shows that higher HbA1c variability is associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and microvascular complications of diabetes independently of high HbA1c.


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    Inoreader v13 is Here With Improved Looks and New Features!

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Wed, 29 Jan 2020 07:54:55 +0000

    Since the beginning, Inoreader was meant to be a power-user tool, pushing the boundaries of what RSS readers can do.…


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    Declutter Your Inbox. Subscribe to Email Newsletters Straight Into Inoreader

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Thu, 13 Feb 2020 08:07:31 +0000

    You have mail! Inoreader now allows you to subscribe to Email Newsletters just as regular RSS feeds. By creating a…


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    Inoreader mobile apps updated to support Automatic Night Mode, Microblogs, Sort by Magic and popularity indicators.

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Thu, 20 Feb 2020 09:05:38 +0000

    Hey, it’s been quite some time without updates on this front, but our latest updates to our Android and iOS…


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    Get Free Local COVID-19 Alerts with Inoreader

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Fri, 13 Mar 2020 19:16:25 +0000

    Everyone is concerned as the novel Coronavirus spreads at rapid rates across all countries of the world. We believe every…


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    Get Your Friends Into RSS With Inoreader’s New Invite Feature

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 07:55:39 +0000

    Have you ever tried to convince somebody to start using an RSS reader, only to hear back from them something…


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    Convert Almost Any Webpage Into RSS Feed With Inoreader’s Web Feeds

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Wed, 08 Apr 2020 05:59:26 +0000

    So, you wanted to follow this nice website for new content, but it doesn’t have an RSS feed yet? Don’t…


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    Keep Your YouTube Subscriptions in Sync With Inoreader

    By blog.inoreader.com
    Published On :: Thu, 16 Apr 2020 09:05:12 +0000

    Did you know you can subscribe to YouTube channels and playlist in Inoreader? Simply paste the URL of the channel…


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    Effects of MK-0941, a Novel Glucokinase Activator, on Glycemic Control in Insulin-Treated Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

    By care.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2011-11-21T22:32:39-08:00

    OBJECTIVE

    To assess the efficacy and safety of MK-0941, a glucokinase activator (GKA), when added to stable-dose insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

    In this double-blind study, 587 patients taking stable-dose insulin glargine (±metformin ≥1,500 mg/day) were randomized (1:1:1:1:1) to MK-0941 10, 20, 30, or 40 mg or matching placebo t.i.d. before meals (a.c.). This study included an initial 14-week, dose-ranging phase followed by a 40-week treatment phase during which patients were to be uptitrated as tolerated to 40 mg (or placebo) t.i.d. a.c. The primary efficacy end point was change from baseline in A1C at Week 14.

     RESULTS

    At Week 14, A1C and 2-h postmeal glucose (PMG) improved significantly versus placebo with all MK-0941 doses. Maximal placebo-adjusted least squares mean changes from baseline in A1C (baseline A1C 9.0%) and 2-h PMG were –0.8% and –37 mg/dL (–2 mmol/L), respectively. No significant effects on fasting plasma glucose were observed at any dose versus placebo. By 30 weeks, the initial glycemic responses noted at 14 weeks were not sustained. MK-0941 at one or more doses was associated with significant increases in the incidence of hypoglycemia, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and proportion of patients meeting criteria for predefined limits of change for increased diastolic blood pressure.

     CONCLUSIONS

    In patients receiving stable-dose insulin glargine, the GKA MK-0941 led to improvements in glycemic control that were not sustained. MK-0941 was associated with an increased incidence of hypoglycemia and elevations in triglycerides and blood pressure.


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    Respuestas latinoamericanas a las crisis migratorias venezolanas y nicaragüenses

    By www.migrationpolicy.org
    Published On :: Mon, 04 Nov 2019 08:58:25 -0500

    Responsables de políticos principales y partes interesadas de América Latina, así como representantes de instituciones internacionales claves, ofrecen sus puntos de vista sobre los desafíos futuros mientras gobiernos latinoamericanos buscan establecer las estrategias para responder a flujos migratorios forzados a gran escala, como los de Venezuela y Nicaragua.


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    Health Insurance Coverage of Immigrants and Latinos in the Kansas City Metro Area

    By www.migrationpolicy.org
    Published On :: Tue, 19 Nov 2019 10:26:37 -0500

    Latinos and immigrants are at least twice as likely to lack health insurance coverage as the overall population in the Kansas City metropolitan area. This gap that has significant implications for the region, as Latinos and immigrants will form an ever-growing share of the area’s labor force and tax base amid anticipated declines in the native-born, non-Latino population.


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    Perspectives in Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Review of Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment

    By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2007-04-01

    Jennifer M. Perkins
    Apr 1, 2007; 25:57-62
    Feature Articles


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    The Disparate Impact of Diabetes on Racial/Ethnic Minority Populations

    By clinical.diabetesjournals.org
    Published On :: 2012-07-01

    Edward A. Chow
    Jul 1, 2012; 30:130-133
    Diabetes Advocacy


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    The Innovation Dilemma

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:09:00 +0000

    "If it ain't broken, don't fix it."Sound advice, but limited to situations where "fixing it" only entails restoring past performance. In contrast, innovations entail substantive improvements over the past. Innovations are not just corrections of past mistakes, but progress towards a better future.

    However, innovations often present a challenging dilemma to decision makers. Many decisions require choosing between options, one of which is both potentially better in the outcome but markedly more uncertain. In these situations the decision maker faces an "innovation dilemma."

    The innovation dilemma arises in many contexts. Here are a few examples.

    Technology. New and innovative technologies are often advocated because of their purported improvements on existing products or methods. However, what is new is usually less well-known and less widely tested than what is old. The range of possible adverse (or favorable) surprises of an innovative technology may exceed the range of surprise for a tried-and-true technology. The analyst who must choose between innovation and convention faces an innovation dilemma.

    Investment. The economic investor faces an innovation dilemma when choosing between investing in a promising but unknown new start-up and investing in a well-known existing firm.

    Auction. "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" is the motto of the risk-taker, while the risk-avoider responds: "Nothing ventured, nothing lost". The innovation dilemma is embedded in the choice between these two strategies. Consider for example the "winner's curse" in auction theory. You can make a financial bid for a valuable piece of property, which will be sold to the highest bidder. You have limited information about the other bidders and about the true value of the property. If you bid high you might win the auction but you might also pay more than the property is worth. Not bidding is risk-free because it avoids the purchase. The choice between a high bid and no bid is an innovation dilemma.

    Employer decision. An employer must decide whether or not to replace a current satisfactory employee with a new candidate whose score on a standardized test was high. A high score reflects great ability. However, the score also contains a random element, so a high score may result from chance, and not reflect true ability. The innovation dilemma is embedded in the employer's choice between the current adequate employee and a high-scoring new candidate.

    Natural resource exploitation. Permitting the extraction of offshore petroleum resources may be productive in terms of petroleum yield but may also present officials with significant uncertainty about environmental consequences.

    Public health. Implementation of a large-scale immunization program may present policy officials with worries about uncertain side effects.

    Agricultural policy. New technologies promise improved production efficiency or new consumer choices, but with uncertain benefits and costs and potential unanticipated adverse effects resulting from use of manufactured inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and machinery, and, more recently, genetically engineered seed varieties and information technology. (I am indebted to L. Joe Moffitt and Craig Osteen for these examples in natural resources, public health and agriculture.)

    An essay like this one should - according to custom - end with a practical prescription: What to do about the innovation dilemma? You need to make a decision - a choice between options - and you face an innovation dilemma. How to choose? All I'll say is that the first step is to identify what you need to achieve from this decision. Recognizing the vast uncertainties which accompany the decision, choose the option which achieves the required outcome over the largest range of uncertain contingencies.

    If you want more of an answer than that, consult your favorite decision theory (like info-gap theory, for instance).

    I will conclude by drawing a parallel between the innovation dilemma and one of the oldest quandaries in political philosophy. In The Evolution of Political Thought C. Northcote Parkinson explains the historically recurring tension between freedom and equality.

    Freedom. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that offers broad freedom for individuals to exploit their abilities, will also develop a wide spread of wealth, accomplishment, and status. Freedom enables individuals to explore, invent, discover, and create. Freedom is the recipe for innovation. Freedom induces both uncertainty and inequality.

    Equality. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that strives for equality among its members can achieve this by enforcing conformity and by transferring wealth from rich to poor. The promise of a measure of equality is a guarantee of a measure of security, a personal and social safety net. Equality reduces both uncertainty and freedom.

    The dilemma is that a life without freedom is hardly human, but freedom without security is the jungle. And life in the jungle, as Hobbs explained, in "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short".


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    No-Failure Design and Disaster Recovery: Lessons from Fukushima

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:21:00 +0000

    One of the striking aspects of the early stages of the nuclear accident at Fukushima-Daiichi last March was the nearly total absence of disaster recovery capability. For instance, while Japan is a super-power of robotic technology, the nuclear authorities had to import robots from France for probing the damaged nuclear plants. Fukushima can teach us an important lesson about technology.

    The failure of critical technologies can be disastrous. The crash of a civilian airliner can cause hundreds of deaths. The meltdown of a nuclear reactor can release highly toxic isotopes. Failure of flood protection systems can result in vast death and damage. Society therefore insists that critical technologies be designed, operated and maintained to extremely high levels of reliability. We benefit from technology, but we also insist that the designers and operators "do their best" to protect us from their dangers.

    Industries and government agencies who provide critical technologies almost invariably act in good faith for a range of reasons. Morality dictates responsible behavior, liability legislation establishes sanctions for irresponsible behavior, and economic or political self-interest makes continuous safe operation desirable.

    The language of performance-optimization − not only doing our best, but also achieving the best − may tend to undermine the successful management of technological danger. A probability of severe failure of one in a million per device per year is exceedingly − and very reassuringly − small. When we honestly believe that we have designed and implemented a technology to have vanishingly small probability of catastrophe, we can honestly ignore the need for disaster recovery.

    Or can we?

    Let's contrast this with an ethos that is consistent with a thorough awareness of the potential for adverse surprise. We now acknowledge that our predictions are uncertain, perhaps highly uncertain on some specific points. We attempt to achieve very demanding outcomes − for instance vanishingly small probabilities of catastrophe − but we recognize that our ability to reliably calculate such small probabilities is compromised by the deficiency of our knowledge and understanding. We robustify ourselves against those deficiencies by choosing a design which would be acceptable over a wide range of deviations from our current best understanding. (This is called "robust-satisficing".) Not only does "vanishingly small probability of failure" still entail the possibility of failure, but our predictions of that probability may err.

    Acknowledging the need for disaster recovery capability (DRC) is awkward and uncomfortable for designers and advocates of a technology. We would much rather believe that DRC is not needed, that we have in fact made catastrophe negligible. But let's not conflate good-faith attempts to deal with complex uncertainties, with guaranteed outcomes based on full knowledge. Our best models are in part wrong, so we robustify against the designer's bounded rationality. But robustness cannot guarantee success. The design and implementation of DRC is a necessary part of the design of any critical technology, and is consistent with the strategy of robust satisficing.

    One final point: moral hazard and its dilemma. The design of any critical technology entails two distinct and essential elements: failure prevention and disaster recovery. What economists call a `moral hazard' exists since the failure prevention team might rely on the disaster-recovery team, and vice versa. Each team might, at least implicitly, depend on the capabilities of the other team, and thereby relinquish some of its own responsibility. Institutional provisions are needed to manage this conflict.

    The alleviation of this moral hazard entails a dilemma. Considerations of failure prevention and disaster recovery must be combined in the design process. The design teams must be aware of each other, and even collaborate, because a single coherent system must emerge. But we don't want either team to relinquish any responsibility. On the one hand we want the failure prevention team to work as though there is no disaster recovery, and the disaster recovery team should presume that failures will occur. On the other hand, we want these teams to collaborate on the design.

    This moral hazard and its dilemma do not obviate the need for both elements of the design. Fukushima has taught us an important lesson by highlighting the special challenge of high-risk critical technologies: design so failure cannot occur, and prepare to respond to the unanticipated.


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    Beware the Rareness Illusion When Exploring the Unknown

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Thu, 06 Oct 2011 12:14:00 +0000

    Here's a great vacation idea. Spend the summer roaming the world in search of the 10 lost tribes of Israel, exiled from Samaria by the Assyrians 2700 years ago (2 Kings 17:6). Or perhaps you'd like to search for Prester John, the virtuous ruler of a kingdom lost in the Orient? Or would you rather trace the gold-laden kingdom of Ophir (1 Kings 9:28)? Or do you prefer the excitement of tracking the Amazons, that nation of female warriors? Or perhaps the naval power mentioned by Plato, operating from the island of Atlantis? Or how about unicorns, or the fountain of eternal youth? The Unknown is so vast that the possibilities are endless.

    Maybe you don't believe in unicorns. But Plato evidently "knew" about the island of Atlantis. The conquest of Israel is known from Assyrian archeology and from the Bible. That you've never seen a Reubenite or a Naphtalite (or a unicorn) means that they don't exist?

    It is true that when something really does not exist, one might spend a long time futilely looking for it. Many people have spent enormous energy searching for lost tribes, lost gold, and lost kingdoms. Why is it so difficult to decide that what you're looking for really isn't there? The answer, ironically, is that the world has endless possibilities for discovery and surprise.

    Let's skip vacation plans and consider some real-life searches. How long should you (or the Libyans) look for Muammar Qaddafi? If he's not in the town of Surt, maybe he's Bani Walid, or Algeria, or Timbuktu? How do you decide he cannot be found? Maybe he was pulverized by a NATO bomb. It's urgent to find the suicide bomber in the crowded bus station before it's too late - if he's really there. You'd like to discover a cure for AIDS, or a method to halt the rising global temperature, or a golden investment opportunity in an emerging market, or a proof of the parallel postulate of Euclidean geometry.

    Let's focus our question. Suppose you are looking for something, and so far you have only "negative" evidence: it's not here, it's not there, it's not anywhere you've looked. Why is it so difficult to decide, conclusively and confidently, that it simply does not exist?

    This question is linked to a different question: how to make the decision that "it" (whatever it is) does not exist. We will focus on the "why" question, and leave the "how" question to students of decision theories such as statistics, fuzzy logic, possibility theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and info-gap theory. (If you're interested in an info-gap application to statistics, here is an example.)

    Answers to the "why" question can be found in several domains.

    Psychology provides some answers. People can be very goal oriented, stubborn, and persistent. Marco Polo didn't get to China on a 10-hour plane flight. The round trip took him 24 years, and he didn't travel business class.

    Ideology is a very strong motivator. When people believe something strongly, it is easy for them to ignore evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, for some people, the search itself is valued more than the putative goal.

    The answer to the "why" question that I will focus on is found by contemplating The Endless Unknown. It is so vast, so unstructured, so, well ..., unknown, that we cannot calibrate our negative evidence to decide that whatever we're looking for just ain't there.

    I'll tell a true story.

    I was born in the US and my wife was born in Israel, but our life-paths crossed, so to speak, before we were born. She had a friend whose father was from Europe and lived for a while - before the friend was born - with a cousin of his in my home town. This cousin was - years later - my 3rd grade teacher. My school teacher was my future wife's friend's father's cousin.

    Amazing coincidence. This convoluted sequence of events is certainly rare. How many of you can tell the very same story? But wait a minute. This convoluted string of events could have evolved in many many different ways, each of which would have been an equally amazing coincidence. The number of similar possible paths is namelessly enormous, uncountably humongous. In other words, potential "rare" events are very numerous. Now that sounds like a contradiction (we're getting close to some of Zeno's paradoxes, and Aristotle thought Zeno was crazy). It is not a contradiction; it is only a "rareness illusion" (something like an optical illusion). The specific event sequence in my story is unique, which is the ultimate rarity. We view this sequence as an amazing coincidence because we cannot assess the number of similar sequences. Surprising strings of events occur not infrequently because the number of possible surprising strings is so unimaginably vast. The rareness illusion is the impression of rareness arising from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown. "Necessary" because, by definition, we cannot know what is unknown. "Vast" because the world is so rich in possibilities.

    The rareness illusion is a false impression, a mistake. For instance, it leads people to wrongly goggle at strings of events - rare in themselves - even though "rare events" are numerous and "amazing coincidences" occur all the time. An appreciation of the richness and boundlessness of the Unknown is an antidote for the rareness illusion.

    Recognition of the rareness illusion is the key to understanding why it is so difficult to confidently decide, based on negative evidence, that what you're looking for simply does not exist.

    One might be inclined to reason as follows. If you're looking for something, then look very thoroughly, and if you don't find it, then it's not there. That is usually sound and sensible advice, and often "looking thoroughly" will lead to discovery.

    However, the number of ways that we could overlook something that really is there is enormous. It is thus very difficult to confidently conclude that the search was thorough and that the object cannot be found. Take the case of your missing house keys. They dropped from your pocket in the car, or on the sidewalk and somebody picked them up, or you left them in the lock when you left the house, or or or .... Familiarity with the rareness illusion makes it very difficult to decide that you have searched thoroughly. If you think that the only contingencies not yet explored are too exotic to be relevant (a raven snatched them while you were daydreaming about that enchanting new employee), then think again, because you've been blinded by a rareness illusion. The number of such possibilities is so vastly unfathomable that you cannot confidently say that all of them are collectively negligible. Recognition of the rareness illusion prevents you from confidently concluding that what you are seeking simply does not exist.

    Many quantitative tools grapple with the rareness illusion. We mentioned some decision theories earlier. But because the rareness illusion derives from our necessary ignorance of the vast unknown, one must always beware.

    Looking for an exciting vacation? The Endless Unknown is the place to go. 


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    Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Sun, 09 Oct 2011 11:51:00 +0000

    Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

    Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




    Decision problems.
    Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

    Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

    These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

    Solution strategies.
    The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

    One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

    The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

    From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

    The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

    "Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

    Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

    There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

    "Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

    Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

    Robustness and Probability

    Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

    When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

    A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

    Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

    This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

    Wrapping Up

    The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

    Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

    The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. 


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    Why We Need Libraries, Or, Memory and Knowledge

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Sat, 26 May 2012 06:19:00 +0000


    "Writing is thinking in slow motion. We see what at normal speeds escapes us, can rerun the reel at will to look for errors, erase, interpolate, and rethink. Most thoughts are a light rain, fall upon the ground, and dry up. Occasionally they become a stream that runs a short distance before it disappears. Writing stands an incomparably better chance of getting somewhere.

    "... What is written can be given endlessly and yet retained, read by thousands even while it is being rewritten, kept as it was and revised at the same time. Writing is magic." 
    Walter Kaufmann

    We are able to know things because they happen again and again. We know about the sun because it glares down on us day after day. Scientists learn the laws of nature, and build confidence in their knowledge, by testing their theories over and over and getting the same results each time. We would be unable to learn the patterns and ways of our world if nothing were repeatable.

    But without memory, we could learn nothing even if the world were tediously repetitive. Even though the sun rises daily in the east, we could not know this if we couldn't remember it.

    The world has stable patterns, and we are able to discover these patterns because we remember. Knowledge requires more than memory, but memory is an essential element.

    The invention of writing was a great boon to knowledge because writing is collective memory. For instance, the Peloponnesian wars are known to us through Thucydides' writings. People understand themselves and their societies in part through knowing their history. History, as distinct from pre-history, depends on the written word. For example, each year at the Passover holiday, Jewish families through the ages have read the story of the Israelite exodus from Egypt. We are enjoined to see ourselves as though we were there, fleeing Egypt and trudging through the desert. Memory, recorded for all time, creates individual and collective awareness, and motivates aspirations and actions.

    Without writing, much collective memory would be lost, just as books themselves are sometimes lost. We know, for instance, that Euclid wrote a book called Porisms, but the book is lost and we know next to nothing about its message. Memory, and knowledge, have been lost.

    Memory can be uncertain. We've all experienced that on the personal level. Collective memory can also be uncertain. We're sometimes uncertain of the meaning of rare ancient words, such as lilit in Isaiah (34:14) or gvina in Job (10:10). Written traditions, while containing an element of truth, may be of uncertain meaning or veracity. For instance, we know a good deal, both from the Bible and from archeological findings, about Hezekiah who ruled the kingdom of Judea in the late 8th century BCE. About David, three centuries earlier, we can be much less certain. Biblical stories are told in great detail but corroboration is hard to obtain.

    Memory can be deliberately corrupted. Records of history can be embellished or prettified, as when a king commissions the chronicling of his achievements. Ancient monuments glorifying imperial conquests are invaluable sources of knowledge of past ages, but they are unreliable and must be interpreted cautiously. Records of purported events that never occurred can be maliciously fabricated. For instance, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion is pure invention, though that book has been re-published voluminously throughout the world and continues to be taken seriously by many people. Memory is alive and very real, even if it is memory of things that never happened.

    Libraries are the physical medium of human collective memory, and an essential element in maintaining and enlarging our knowledge. There are many types of libraries. The family library may have a few hundred books, while the library of Congress has 1,349 km of bookshelves and holds about 147 million items. Libraries can hold paper books or digital electronic documents. Paper can perish in fire as happened to the Alexandrian library, while digital media can be erased, or become damaged and unreadable. Libraries, like memory itself, are fragile and need care.

    Why do we need libraries? Being human means, among other things, the capacity for knowledge, and the ability to appreciate and benefit from it. The written record is a public good, like the fresh air. I can read Confucius or Isaiah centuries after they lived, and my reading does not consume them. Our collective memory is part of each individual, and preserving that memory preserves a part of each of us. Without memory, we are without knowledge. Without knowledge, we are only another animal.


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    Habit: A Response to the Unknown

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Sat, 10 Nov 2012 15:06:00 +0000


    David Hume explained that we believe by habit that logs will burn, stones will fall, and endless other past patterns will recur. No experiment can prove the future recurrence of past events. An experiment belongs to the future only until it is implemented; once completed, it becomes part of the past. In order for past experiments to prove something about the future, we must assume that the past will recur in the future. That's as circular as it gets.

    But without the habit of believing that past patterns will recur, we would be incapacitated and ineffectual (and probably reduced to moping and sobbing). Who would dare climb stairs or fly planes or eat bread and drink wine, without the belief that, like in the past, the stairs will bear our weight, the wings will carry us aloft, and the bread and wine will nourish our body and soul. Without such habits we would become a jittering jelly of indecision in the face of the unknown.

    But you can't just pull a habit out of a hat. We spend great effort instilling good habits in our children: to brush their teeth, tell the truth, and not pick on their little sister even if she deserves it.

    As we get older, and I mean really older, we begin to worry that our habits become frozen, stodgy, closed-minded and constraining. Younger folks smile at our rigid ways, and try to loosen us up to the new wonders of the world: technological, culinary or musical. Changing your habits, or staying young when you aren't, isn't always easy. Without habits we're lost in an unknowable world.

    And yet, openness to new ideas, tastes, sounds and other experiences of many sorts can itself be a habit, and perhaps a good one. It is the habit of testing the unknown, of acknowledging the great gap between what we do know and what we can know. That gap is an invitation to growth and awe, as well as to fear and danger.

    The habit of openness to change is not a contradiction. It is simply a recognition that habits are a response to the unknown. Not everything changes all the time (or so we're in the habit of thinking), and some things are new under the sun (as newspapers and Nobel prize committees periodically remind us).

    Habits, including the habit of open-mindedness, are a good thing precisely because we can never know for sure how good or bad they really are.


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    MOOCs and the Unknown

    By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com
    Published On :: Sat, 09 Feb 2013 15:44:00 +0000


    MOOCs - Massive Open Online Courses - have fed hundreds of thousands of knowledge-hungry people around the globe. Stanford University's MOOCs program has taught open online courses to tens of thousands students per course, and has 2.5 million enrollees from nearly every country in the world. The students hear a lecturer, and also interact with each other in digital social networks that facilitate their mastery of the material and their integration into global communities of the knowledgable. The internet, and its MOOC realizations, extend the democratization of knowledge to a scale unimagined by early pioneers of workers' study groups or public universities. MOOCs open the market of ideas and knowledge to everyone, from the preacher of esoteric spirituality to the teacher of esoteric computer languages. It's all there, all you need is a browser.

    The internet is a facilitating technology, like the invention of writing or the printing press, and its impacts may be as revolutionary. MOOCs are here to stay, like the sun to govern by day and the moon by night, and we can see that it is good. But it also has limitations, and these we must begin to understand.

    Education depends on the creation and transfer of knowledge. Insight, invention, and discovery underlay the creation of knowledge, and they must precede the transfer of knowledge. MOOCs enable learners to sit at the feet of the world's greatest creators of knowledge.

    But the distinction between creation and transfer of knowledge is necessarily blurred in the process of education itself. Deep and meaningful education is the creation of knowledge in the mind of the learner. Education is not the transfer of digital bits between electronic storage devices. Education is the creation or discovery by the learner of thoughts that previously did not exist in his mind. One can transfer facts per se, but if this is done without creative insight by the learner it is no more than Huck Finn's learning "the multiplication table up to six times seven is thirty-five".

    Invention, discovery and creation occur in the realm of the unknown; we cannot know what will be created until it appears. Two central unknowns dominate the process of education, one in the teacher's mind and one in the student's.

    The teacher cannot know what questions the student will ask. Past experience is a guide, but the universe of possible questions is unbounded, and the better the student, the more unpredictable the questions. The teacher should respond to these questions because they are the fruitful meristem of the student's growing understanding. The student's questions are the teacher's guide into the student's mind. Without them the teacher can only guess how to reach the learner. The most effective teacher will personalize his interaction with the learner by responding to the student's questions.

    The student cannot know the substance of what the teacher will teach; that's precisely why the student has come to the teacher. In extreme cases - of really deep and mind-altering learning - the student will not even understand the teacher's words until they are repeated again and again in new and different ways. The meanings of words come from context. A word means one thing and not another because we use that word in this way and not that. The student gropes to find out how the teacher uses words, concepts and tools of thought. The most effective learning occurs when the student can connect the new meanings to his existing mental contexts. The student cannot always know what contexts will be evoked by his learning.

    As an interim summary, learning can take place only if there is a gap of knowledge between teacher and student. This knowledge gap induces uncertainties on both sides. Effective teaching and learning occur by personalized interaction to dispel these uncertainties, to fill the gap, and to complete the transfer of knowledge.

    We can now appreciate the most serious pedagogic limitation of MOOCs as a tool for education. Mass education is democratic, and MOOCs are far more democratic than any previous mode. This democracy creates a basic tension. The more democratic a mode of communication, the less personalized it is because of its massiveness. The less personalized a communication, the less effective it is pedagogically. The gap of the unknown that separates teacher and learner is greatest in massively democratic education.

    Socrates inveighed against the writing of books. They are too impersonal and immutable. They offer too little room for Socratic mid-wifery of wisdom, in which knowledge comes from dialog. Socrates wanted to touch his students' souls, and because each soul is unique, no book can bridge the gap. Books can at best jog the memory of learners who have already been enlightened. Socrates would probably not have liked MOOCs either, and for similar reasons.

    Nonetheless, Socrates might have preferred MOOCs over books because the mode of communication is different. Books approach the learner through writing, and induce him to write in response. In contrast, MOOCs approach the learner through speech, and induce him to speak in response. Speech, for Socrates, is personal and interactive; speech is the road to the soul. Spoken bilateral interaction cannot occur between a teacher and 20 thousand online learners spread over time and space. That format is the ultimate insult to Socratic learning. On the other hand, the networking that can accompany a MOOC may possibly facilitate the internalization of the teacher's message even more effectively than a one-on-one tutorial. Fast and multi-personal, online chats and other networking can help the learners to rapidly find their own mental contexts for assimilating and modifying the teacher's message.

    Many people have complained that the internet undermines the permanence of the written word. No document is final if it's on the web. Socrates might have approved, and this might be the greatest strength of the MOOC: no course ever ends and no lecture is really final. If MOOCs really are democratic then they cannot be controlled. The discovery of knowledge, like the stars in their orbits, is forever on-going, with occasional supernovas that brighten the heavens. The creation of knowledge will never end because the unknown is limitless. If MOOCs facilitate this creation, then they are good. 


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    How Technology Is Improving Safety On the Roads and Reducing Driving Anxiety

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Wed, 22 Jan 2020 03:24:56 +0000

    Technology has changed a number of aspects of our everyday lives and has led to increased efficiency. But when it comes to driving, has it helped or hindered the process? In this article, we will be looking into some of the ways that technology has improved safety on our roads in the last 10 years. […]


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    The landfill nudge shows up at a Whole Foods in Lake Forest, Illinois

    By nudges.org
    Published On :: Tue, 30 Aug 2011 21:44:21 +0000

    Hat tip: Brad Bennett


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    Where is behavioral economics headed in the world of marketing?

    By nudges.org
    Published On :: Mon, 10 Oct 2011 01:22:04 +0000

    The Nudge blog sat down (electronically) with John Kenny, Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning in Draftfcb’s Chicago office, to explore whether behavioral economics is just a fad in marketing or a legitimate tool to help the industry perform better. Starting with the Institute of Decision Making, Draftfcb has been one of the leaders in [...]


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    I’m a Cisgender Woman and My Husband Watches Trans Porn: Does That Mean He’s Not Into Me?

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Fri, 24 Apr 2020 14:00:00 +0000

    A reader submitted the following question: “I recently discovered that my husband is attracted to transsexuals (MTF - non op). This is the only type of porn that he looks at. He also role plays online with men for sexual play and chat. I discovered this after I started snooping because I had some red flags. He is very embarrassed and uncomfortable discussing it. He has apologized for the online chatting (as we had agreed this was out of bounds for our relationship). He says he likes them because they are feminine but his primary attraction is to women (with female parts). However, I just am not sure I believe him. I am terrified that when we are intimate (which I have to pretty much beg for), he can only do it when its dark and I am fearful he is fantasizing that I have a penis. This bothers me deeply on a number of different levels. Are there men who are only interested in transsexuals? Is it possible he is no longer turned on by my female genitalia?” There’s a lot to unpack in this question, but let’s start here: over the years, I’ve received several emails from women describing similar stories and concerns, so you’re not alone in feeling the way that you do.


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    • Sex Question Friday
    • Sexual Problems and Solutions
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    Rates of Consensual and Nonconsensual Nonmonogamy Among Heterosexual, Gay, and Bisexual Adults

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 14:00:00 +0000

    I was recently invited to write a book chapter on nonmonogamy in LGBTQ+ relationships, and one of the things I wanted to do in it was compare the prevalence of both consensual nonmonogamy (polyamory, open relationships, swinging) and nonconsensual nonmonogamy (cheating/infidelity). Further, I wanted to look at whether rates of these practices were similar or different for LGBTQ+ persons compared to heterosexual persons. However, I found it surprisingly difficult to locate reliable data points. The problem I kept running into is that study after study conflated consensual nonmonogamy with nonconsensual nonmonogamy. In other words, researchers were putting all of these folks into the same category without attempting to distinguish whether they were permitted under the rules of the relationship or not.


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    Have You Reached Out to or Heard From an Ex During the Pandemic? You're Not Alone

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 14:00:00 +0000

    Anecdotally, I’ve heard from a lot of people who have said that they reached out to (or heard from) and ex-partner since the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic began. But just how many people have done so? And what motivated them to reconnect? Some of my colleagues and I at The Kinsey Institute are currently in the midst of researching how this pandemic is affecting people’s intimate lives (click here if you’d like to participate and learn more about the study), and our preliminary data suggest that reaching out to an ex isn’t a rare occurrence.


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    What happens when a Silicon Valley technologist works for the government | Matt Cutts

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Mon, 09 Mar 2020 19:54:34 +0000

    What if the government ran more like Silicon Valley? Engineer Matt Cutts shares why he decided to leave Google (where he worked for nearly 17 years) for a career in the US government -- and makes the case that if you really want to make an impact, go where your help is needed most.


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    How menopause affects the brain | Lisa Mosconi

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Tue, 10 Mar 2020 14:59:54 +0000

    Many of the symptoms of menopause -- hot flashes, night sweats, insomnia, memory lapses, depression and anxiety -- start in the brain. How exactly does menopause impact cognitive health? Sharing groundbreaking findings from her research, neuroscientist Lisa Mosconi reveals how decreasing hormonal levels affect brain aging -- and shares simple lifestyle changes you can make to support lifelong brain health.


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    The dangers of a noisy ocean -- and how we can quiet it down | Nicola Jones

    By feedproxy.google.com
    Published On :: Wed, 11 Mar 2020 15:03:00 +0000

    The ocean is a naturally noisy place full of singing whales, grunting fish, snapping shrimp, cracking ice, wind and rain. But human-made sounds -- from ship engines to oil drilling -- have become an acute threat to marine life, says science journalist Nicola Jones. Watch (and listen) as she discusses the strange things that happen to underwater creatures in the face of ocean noise pollution -- and shares straightforward ways we can dial down the sound to see almost immediate impacts.


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