This week's interview is with Connections Director, Layla Granata. The Crew will interview Layla about her new position at The Well and her passion for cultivating awareness of our city. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the AOD Series. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Josh Garrels. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with WSM Spiritual Formation Shepherd, Nina Baker. The Crew will interview Nina on her new position at The Well and her recent Exposure Trip to Uganda. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the final sermon of the AOD Series on Relationships. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from NEEDTOBREATHE. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with WSM volunteer, Robby Gottselig. The Crew will interview Robby about his time volunteering in WSM and his new friendship with Ben. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Adele. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Worship Director, Dominic Nuncio. The Crew will interview Dom about his role at The Well and discuss the Worship Team's process of writing some of the worship songs we sing in church. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week you'll hear songs that were written and produced by our very own worship pastors. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Campus Support Director, Dale Norris. The Crew will interview Dale about his role at The Well and discuss his upcoming transition as he and his team launch The Well Northwest. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from The Head And The Heart. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Andrew Feil, a guy who holds too many titles at The Well to mention. The Crew will interview Andrew about City Summit, Serve Dei and upcoming mission opportunities. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Citizens. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Family Ministries Director, PJ Lewis. The Crew will interview PJ about his expanded role from Kids Co to Family Ministries and his March Madness bracket. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from U2. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Operations Director, Jeff Krueger. The Crew interviews Jeff about his role at The Well and his Serve Dei project at Rescue the Children. The Crew also discusses Serve Dei and the project that they did with their WSM students. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from The Gospel Whiskey Runners. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with WSM volunteer, James Lemmon. The Crew interviews James about his role as a middle school WSM leader and they talk about his mad dodgeball skills. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Gungor. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with one of our favorite WSM students, Brooke Watts. The Crew will interview Brooke about her week at I Heart Fresno, her upcoming WSM Exposure Trip to New York and will do their best to guess her two truths and a lie. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the weekend's Seder Supper, Good Friday service and Easter service. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Justin Bieber. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Ben's good friend, Charlie Broxton. The Crew will interview Charlie about his role at Mount Hermon as the Director of Youth and Young Adult Ministries and laugh as he dishes some good stories on Ben. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is from Pearl Jam. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Southeast Campus Pastor, Pete Hingano. The Crew interviews Pete about his role at the Southeast Campus and his belly flop victory. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is by Kari Jobe. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with Midweek Connections Director, Rick Cuellar. The Crew interviews Rick about his time working at The Well in Fresno and his transition to Washington to help plant The Well Northwest. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is by Yellowcard. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with 7pm Campus Pastor, Erik Castillo. The Crew interviews Erik about his role at The Well and what's coming for college ministry at The Well. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is by Ray Lamontagne. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

This week's interview is with our Clovis Campus and Midweek Connections Director, Chelsey MacAlpine. The Crew interviews Chelsey about her role at The Well, and she and Jayne face off in a little game of Don't Forget the Lyrics. The Crew also discusses their thoughts from the Ephesians Series, Love First Love. Email thespoutpodcast@gmail.com with any feedback or leave a review on iTunes. Like The Well - Spoutcast on Facebook, find us on Twitter: @thespoutcast, or add us on Instagram: @thespoutcast. Check back in with the Spoutcast each week for a new episode or search Spoutcast in iTunes to subscribe to this podcast. This week's music is by The Fray. Speaker: The Spoutcast Team

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The Space Development Agency (SDA) on Tuesday said it has awarded Kratos Defense & Security Solutions [KTOS] a potential $116.7 contract to create and operate a missile defense fire control […]

The Navy awarded Norway’s Kongsberg a $961 million multiyear contract for the Naval Strike Missile (NSM), also known as the Over the Horizon-Weapons System encanistered missiles. NSMs are currently deployed […]

Starfish Space on Wednesday announced a new funding round that will allow it to complete development and build of three spacecraft that will be used for on-orbit docking and maneuvering […]

The acquisition establishes a direct corporate presence in Australia and a foundation for further expansion in the Asia-Pacific region, a press release from Fieldpiece said.

Aquatherm North America has announced B&B Trade Distribution Centre as its newest distribution partner. B&B services the HVACR and sheet metal trades across Ontario from locations in Toronto, Oakville, Hamilton, London, and Windsor.

Environment Canada announced that it is moving forward with regulatory measures to limit the growth of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). It has published a Notice of Intent to Regulate Hydrofluorocarbons in the Canada Gazette outlining the scope of the proposed measures for HFCs, which are considered potent greenhouse gases.

Distech Controls Inc., a supplier of building automation and energy management solutions, announced that it has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Acuity Brands Inc., a leading provider of intelligent lighting solutions.

Distech Controls, a provider of energy management solutions, announced it was named the Provincial Laureate, SME Exporter category, at the 21st edition of National Bank’s SME Awards. The company noted it has the honor of being a two-time award recipient, having been named Bronze Laureate in the same category in 2014.

The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) announced that Canada has topped its international rankings of the Top 10 Countries for LEED. The list highlights countries outside of the U.S. that are making significant strides in sustainable building.

Distech Controls, a supplier of energy management solutions, announced that the company is partnering with one of Canada’s top tech hubs, Notman House. The historic, downtown Montreal building provides tech startups with flexible office space that promotes networking, community building, and shared learning.

GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. announced that it has completed the acquisition of Ainsworth Inc., a subsidiary of CEDA International Corp. The acquisition unites GDI’s cross-Canada commercial janitorial services platform with Ainsworth’s cross-Canada HVACR, mechanical, electrical, and technical services business.

Enercare Inc. has announced the launch of the Enercare Fresh Start Program, a new corporate social responsibility program designed to help families transitioning between temporary shelters and a home of their own.

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11/18/2024 - 6:30 PM - Venue: Pueblo West Library

In 2011, Congress passed the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA), which mandates a shift in approach to food safety from reaction to prevention.

Why it's important?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for PPI

PPI Y/Y

• 2.4% (11%)
• 2.3% (68%) - consensus
• 2.2% (16%)
• 2.0% (5%)

PPI M/M

• 0.4% (2%)
• 0.3% (13%)
• 0.2% (74%) - consensus
• 0.1% (7%)
• 0.0% (2%)
• -0.1% (2%)

Core PPI Y/Y

• 3.1% (12%)
• 3.0% (47%) - consensus
• 2.9% (35%)
• 2.7% (6%)

Core PPI M/M

• 0.3% (57%) - consensus
• 0.2% (40%)
• 0.1% (3%)

Analysis

We can ignore the headline PPI as the market will focus on the Core figures. We can notice that the expectations are skewed to the downside, so a higher than expected reading would be taken as more hawkish and likely give the US Dollar another boost. Conversely, a soft print could trigger a pullback.

The US Dollar remains in an uptrend as the market continues to price out the rate cuts expected in 2025. Right now we have another 25 bps cut priced for December and just two 25 bps cuts priced in 2025 which is already much lower than the Fed's projection of four.

Therefore, there's still a couple of rate cuts to price out in 2025 if the data continues to run hot, but at that point we would need a real acceleration in inflation to have the market pricing in a rate hike. For now, the bar for rate hikes is really high as the maximum the Fed is willing to do is to pause the easing cycle.

Fundamental Overview

The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.

The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally extended the rally into new highs helped by a hawkish comment from Fed’s Logan. There’s no strong technical resistance now at least until the 160.00 handle.

If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting a drop back into the 152.00 support.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a break below the major trendline.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better setup around the trendline, while the sellers are better to wait for a technical break lower instead of trying to catch the top. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

See the video below

Fundamental Overview

The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.

The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on rate cuts in 2025.

The market is viewing all of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke through the recent low around the 0.6537 level and extended the drop into the 0.6460 level as the US Dollar restarted its run on stronger US data. The natural target should be around the 0.6362 level.

From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a rally into the top of the yearly range around the 0.69 handle.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting a bigger pullback into the major trendline.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much more we can add although we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.65 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to pile in for move lower, while the buyers will look for a break higher. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.

• An 'activist' approach means to cut less until it is clear inflation persistence has been purged
• I would be ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone

As mentioned, she's arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments are also reflected by her bank rate vote last week here, as she was the only member to dissent against the rate cut decision.

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is scheduled to speak at the top of the hour. Musalem is a voting member in 2025. Back on October 7, Musalem spoke and said:

• More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.
• Won't predict timing or size of future Fed easings.
• Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.
• Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.
• Supported Fed’s decision last month to cut rates by 50 basis points.
• Policy patience has served Fed well.
• Cooler job market still consistent with strong economy.
• Expects inflation pressures to continue to abate.
• Expects inflation to converge to 2% over next couple of quarters.
• Financial conditions remain supportive of growth.
• Some economic activity slowed by rate policy, election uncertainty.

That was over a month ago. So how he weighs in now will be interesting given the backup in yields and other economic and other developments since that time

• Risks to the jobs market have remain unchanged or have fallen
• Fed may be on the 'last mile' to price stability, inflation expected to converge to 2% over the medium term
• Monetary policy well posited, Fed can 'judiciously and patiently' judge income data to decide on further rate cuts
• Strong economy on track for a 'solid' fourth quarter
• Growth is broad-balanced and driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions and wealth effects
• Recent high productivity could prove durably structural but that remains uncertain
• Core inflation remain elevated
• Pressure in services industries slowly abating

This is the third Fed official who has floated some more-hawkish hints. It's hardly a signal of a pause in December but early 2025 is going to be interesting. There are meetings in January, March and May. Assuming a cut in Dec, there is one cut fully priced in for that period (and a smidge more).

That sounds about right based on the comments and data but that's going to swing based on the next set of numbers and beyond.

UBS remain upbeat on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to come. Analysts at the bank acknowledge heightened concerns about inflation in the market, and also trimmed market pricing for cuts ahead.

Ahead of Wednesday's CPI report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Nov: US CPI comes out as expected. USD continues rise) UBS points:

• Economic data signals a stronger-than-expected economy. Concerns about inflation remain

• Market expectations lean towards a slower pace of Fed rate cuts

• Fed officials view the current rate as restrictive but are balancing employment and inflation goals. A major inflation surprise would be required to shift policy outlooks.

• The Fed is likely to continue rate cuts, with a potential 25 basis point cut in December and further easing expected in 2025.

And, the data result was not enough to dissuade analysts at UBS from expecting further cuts from the FOMC ahead, referring to the in line CPI print not changing the underlying fundamentals and economy narrative.

***

The latest from FedWatch shows a solid expectation for a 25bp cut on December 18: