udi Saudi Arabia wants out of Yemen By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 15:12:56 +0000 Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a unilateral cease-fire in Yemen reflects the kingdom’s dire economic and social crisis caused by the pandemic and the fall in oil prices. It’s not clear if the Houthis will accept the cease-fire, but it is certain that Yemen is completely unprepared for the outbreak of the virus in the poorest… Full Article
udi Saudi Arabia's McKinsey reshuffle By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 11 May 2016 09:00:00 -0400 Saudi Arabians woke up over the weekend to a once-in-a-decade cabinet reshuffle. Octogenarian oil minister Ali al-Naimi, who has been in charge of the Kingdom’s energy policy since 1995, was replaced by Khaled al-Falih, who is to head the newly created Energy, Industry, and Natural Resources Ministry. Majed al-Qusaibi was named head of the newly created Commerce and Investment Ministry. Finally, Ahmed al-Kholifey was made governor of the Saudi Arabia’s Central Bank (SAMA). It may come as a surprise to many Saudis that the origin of this reshuffle—and indeed the Kingdom’s new economic direction—finds its impetus in a report by the global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company. A man with a plan Saudi Arabia has been struggling to deal with the impact of lower oil prices. After years of recording budget surpluses, the government has seen its budgetary deficit grow to 15 percent of GDP. Lower oil prices—coupled with tensions with regional rival Iran over Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon—have put the Kingdom’s finances under pressure. Since oil prices began to plummet, Saudi Arabia’s ever-ambitious Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been spearheading an ambitious reform initiative that seeks to diversify the Kingdom’s economy away from oil. Dubbed “Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030,” the prince says that the new economic blueprint will increase the role of the private sector from 40 percent to 60 percent, reduce unemployment from 11 percent to 7.6 percent, and grow non-oil income exponentially. This is to be financed by the partial privatization of the Kingdom’s oil behemoth, Aramco. The 2030 document outlines a number of significant reforms that seek to change not only the Saudi economy, but state-society relations more broadly, in a way that has been done since the Kingdom’s founding. The 2030 document outlines a number of significant reforms that seek to change not only the Saudi economy, but state-society relations more broadly, in a way that hasn't been done since the Kingdom’s founding. The prince’s vision seems to have been inspired by a report issued by the McKinsey Global Institute in December 2015 titled “Moving Saudi Arabia’s Economy Beyond Oil.” The vision and the report have similar policy prescriptions for diversifying the Kingdom’s economy away from oil. Such similarities highlight the influence of consultancies on policymaking in the Kingdom. Indeed, Bloomberg news reported that consultancies are set to earn 12 percent more in commissions in Saudi Arabia this year, the fastest growth amongst the world’s advisory markets. In a wide-ranging interview with The Economist in January, Prince Mohammed himself said that “McKinsey participates with us in many studies.” According to the Financial Times, Saudi businessmen have sarcastically dubbed the Ministry of Planning as the “McKinsey Ministry.” McKinsey’s key report, full with glossy illustrations, contains consultant buzzwords (“transformation,” “efficiency,” and “synergies”) that would make Marty Kaan in Showtimes’s House of Lies proud. It’s by no means novel for consultants to advise governments in the region and across the world, and indeed the report does outline an ambitious blueprint for the Kingdom’s economic transformation and diversification away from oil. Will the public buy it? But in a glaring omission, the report does not adequately explain how the Saudi government will be able to change the mindset of everyday Saudi Arabia citizens, who have long been accustomed to state largesse that included fuel subsidies, loans, free land, and public sector jobs. This is the key issue. The reform plans sound promising, and will indeed make headway in weaning the Kingdom off its oil “addiction” (as the prince himself put it). But how will everyday citizens react to the reforms? The Saudi government will be asking more of its citizens—will the citizens in turn ask for more accountability and representation? Since January, the prices of gasoline, electricity, and water have gone up. There was a public outcry against higher utility prices, which lead King Salman to fire the water minister to absorb the public’s anger. Such discontent is the harbinger of things to come. The coming months and years will show how Saudi leadership implements much needed economic reforms without alienating its population. While the outcome is uncertain, one thing is: consultants will continue to flock to Saudi Arabia to work on the “mother of all transformation projects.” Editors' Note: This post was corrected on May 12, 2016 to clarify that the report “Moving Saudi Arabia’s Economy Beyond Oil” was issued by the McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of McKinsey & Company. MGI’s work is independent and wholly funded by McKinsey Partners. The MGI report was not commissioned by the government of Saudi Arabia and has no formal role in government decision-making. Authors Adel Abdel Ghafar Full Article
udi The political implications of transforming Saudi and Iranian oil economies By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 16 Jun 2016 10:35:00 -0400 Saudi deputy crown prince and defense minister Mohammad bin Salman is just wrapping up a heavily hyped visit to Washington, aimed at reinforcing the kingdom’s partnership with the United States. Recent years have frayed what is traditionally the central strategic relationship for Riyadh, principally over the Obama administration’s nuclear diplomacy with Iran. Since the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear deal last July, the perennial antagonism between Riyadh and Tehran has reached a dangerous pitch, fueling the violence that rages in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and the undercurrent of instability that saturates the region. And the fallout of their rivalry has left its mark well beyond the boundaries of the Gulf, exacerbating volatile energy markets and, by extension, the global economy. Within OPEC, Riyadh and Tehran are eyeing each other warily, and their continuing differences torpedoed a proposed ceiling on oil production at OPEC’s latest meeting. The outcome was not surprising; a similar effort to agree on a production freeze between the group and a handful of non-OPEC producers fizzled in April. In the meantime, any incentives for drastic measures to address soft oil prices have abated as oil prices creep back up to approximately $50 a barrel. Iran and Saudi Arabia have plenty of reasons to continue pumping for the foreseeable future. Since the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions in January, Iranian leaders have been determined to make up for lost time and lost revenues, already defying expectations by quickly raising production to levels that hadn’t been reached since November 2011 and aggressively cutting prices in hopes of winning back its pre-sanctions export market. The centrality of oil to the legitimacy and autonomy of both regimes means that these plans are little more than publicity stunts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia appears prepared to continue pumping at record-high levels, part of a larger strategy aimed at maintaining market share and driving down non-OPEC production. The two states’ economic incentives are compounded by their fierce geostrategic and sectarian rivalry, which has intensified, as evidenced by the standoff over Iranian participation in the annual pilgrimage to Mecca. But even as the two states duel over oil production and prices, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are conspicuously planning for a post-oil future. Leaders in both countries have decreed an end to the era of oil dependency, endorsing ambitious blueprints for restructuring their economies that—if implemented—would ultimately transform state, society, and the wider region. The centrality of oil to the legitimacy and autonomy of both regimes means that these plans are little more than publicity stunts. Still, just imagine for a moment what it would mean for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East if these grandiose agendas were adopted. Competing and complementary visions Tehran’s plan actually dates back more than a decade, with the 2005 release of its “20 Year Perspective” (sometimes called “Vision 2025”). The plan laid out extravagant expectations: rapid growth and job creation, diversification away from oil, a knowledge-based economy. Intervening developments—sanctions that targeted Iran’s oil exports and helped expand non-oil trade—have only bolstered the rhetorical commitment of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to a “resistance economy” in which oil exports constitute a minor part. “One of our most serious losses is dependence on oil,” Khamenei bemoaned in a 2014 speech. “I am not saying that oil should not be used. Rather, I am saying that we should reduce our dependence on selling crude oil as much as we can.” Not to be outdone, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Salman announced Saudi “Vision 2030,” to address what he described as “an addiction to oil.” The plan, which has met with equal doses of fanfare and skepticism since its announcement last month, aims to create a “thriving economy” and end Saudi dependence on oil revenues by 2020. Vision 2030 includes provisions to sell off a small stake in the kingdom’s state oil company, Saudi Aramco, and create the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund to manage the country’s income, as well as goals of creating 450,000 new private sector jobs, cutting public sector wages, and tripling the country’s non-oil exports all within the same abbreviated time frame. Jeopardizing domestic stability There is one hitch, however: these aspirations, though laudable, are preposterously unmoored from current political and economic exigencies. The institutions of governance and the structure of power in resource-rich states such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are organized around the state’s role as purveyors of vital social and economic goods. Riyadh and Tehran distribute cash handouts, provide jobs in already-bloated state bureaucracies, and levy few taxes. Diversifying away from reliance on oil would essentially require Riyadh and Tehran to radically curtail this distributive role, inviting historic social and political changes that could ultimately compromise regime ideology and weaken state legitimacy. [T]hese aspirations, though laudable, are preposterously unmoored from current political and economic exigencies. In Saudi Arabia, the supply of these benefits is central to the monarchy’s legitimacy. To diversify away from oil, which currently accounts for over 70 percent of government revenues, Riyadh would have to drastically cut spending, far more than it already has. Not only would this further slash subsidies and hike fees, it would also effectively force Saudi workers—two-thirds of whom are employed by the state—to take up private sector jobs, 80 percent of which are currently staffed by expatriates. To accomplish this transition would require fundamental changes to the incentive structure for the Saudi labor force: a much broader willingness to accept low-skill, low-wage jobs, as well as the requisite improvements in education and productivity to support larger numbers of Saudi nationals moving into private sector positions. For the Saudi economy to be truly competitive, Riyadh would have to initiate dramatic changes to a central component of the Saudi social compact—women’s rights and freedoms. The Vision 2030 document boasts that over 50 percent of Saudi university graduates are women and pledges to “continue to develop their talents, invest in their productive capabilities and enable them to strengthen their future and contribute to the development of our society and economy.” But the domestic Saudi labor force is overwhelmingly male, and even the plan’s modest aspirations to raise female participation in the workforce from 22 to 30 percent are likely to run into logistical and social obstacles. Shortly after announcing Vision 2030, Deputy Crown Prince Salman said Saudi Arabia is not yet ready to let women drive. A diversified economy will not emerge in the kind of constricted social environment mandated by the Saudi interpretation of sharia (Islamic law). Iran’s Islamic Republic doesn’t have the same degree of gender segregation, but Iran’s official interpretation of Islam has still constrained female participation in the workforce. Iran employs an equally low percentage of women—according to a 2014 U.N. report around 16 percent—and women’s unemployment is more than double that of men (nearly 20 percent). A Saudi man walks past the logo of Vision 2030 after a news conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia June 7, 2016. Photo credit: Reuters/Faisal Al Nasser. The bigger challenge for Iran will be truly opening up its economy to foreign direct investment. This remains hotly contested among the leadership, even in the aftermath of the nuclear agreement and the lifting of related sanctions. While there is some consensus around the need for foreign capital and technology, hardliners including Khamenei are determined to insulate Iran from any accompanying cultural influence and dependency. As the supreme leader recently inveighed, the global economy is “a plan and system that has been devised mainly by Zionist capitalists and some non-Zionists with the purpose of usurping the economic resources of the whole world...If a country merges its economy with the global economy, this is not a source of pride, rather it is a loss and a defeat!” This deeply-rooted paranoia has provided a convenient platform for the Islamic Republic to galvanize citizens’ loyalty to the state and hostility to outside interference. And it also inhibits the liberalization that makes foreign investment possible: measures to enhance transparency and security, develop more attractive legal and fiscal frameworks, shrink the role of the state, and undertake an array of other structural reforms. Without these measures, Tehran will struggle to capitalize on its extraordinary reengagement with the world. While Saudi Arabia has maintained a more consistent and mutually beneficial pattern of foreign investment, its leadership too will have to revamp its approach if it is to broaden its economic base. For Riyadh, the challenge is less one of attracting foreign capital than of developing a sustainable influx of technology and expertise to develop sectors other than energy. The kingdom will also have to overcome serious regulatory hurdles and a proclivity for mammoth (and often white elephant) projects. Compromising regional clout Riyadh and Tehran will need to balance their economic aspirations and their approach to the region, too. Historically, their role in global energy markets has largely shielded both states from the fallout of regional instability. The world’s need for reliable oil at reasonable prices has inculcated the commitment of outside powers to secure transportation of resources and considerable autonomy for Riyadh and Tehran from the implications of their own policies. As a result, Saudi Arabia and Iran can fund nefarious activity across the region, violate the civil and human rights of their citizens and other residents, and carry out belligerent foreign policies without severe repercussions for their oil revenues. Only in the past five years has Tehran seen the limits of the world’s reluctance to jeopardize its investment with a major oil exporter; and the recent reversal of the U.N. condemnation regarding the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen demonstrates that Riyadh remains insulated. Saudi Arabia and Iran can fund nefarious activity across the region, violate the civil and human rights of their citizens and other residents, and carry out belligerent foreign policies without severe repercussions for their oil revenues. Regional developments make the prospect of economic diversification even less likely, as sensitivity to such developments will only increase if either country successfully develops its non-oil sectors. At the same time, regional stability is a basic prerequisite for economic diversification. Robust growth and good governance throughout the Middle East would provide the optimal context for the economic transformation of Iran and Saudi Arabia, since the marketplace for their non-oil exports is concentrated in the immediate neighborhood. But such transformation would require both countries to put economic priorities that serve their general populations above the ideological and religious agendas—supported by oil rents—that propel their regional and international influence and that provide a large portion of their autonomy in foreign policymaking. Technocrats in both countries understand this intuitively. At a 2015 conference on Iran’s economy, President Hassan Rouhani wondered “How long can the economy pay subsidies to politics?” He added that the country’s economy “pays subsidies both to foreign policy and domestic policy. Let us try the other way round for a decade and pay subsidies from the domestic and foreign policy to the economy to see [what] the lives and incomes of people and the employment of the youth will be like.” The problem, of course, is political will: neither country is prepared to elevate the interests of its people over the demands of ideology. Imagining an unlikely future Can either Iran or Saudi Arabia really kick the oil habit? It seems exceptionally unlikely. Even as Khamenei extols the need for inward-focused development, Tehran is racing to expand crude output level to four million barrels per day by March 2017. Oil enabled the creation of the modern Middle Eastern state and fueled the rise of both countries to regional predominance. Oil is a vector for their regional rivalry, and it provides prestige and funds to be used in other arenas of competition. A genuine diversification of the two largest economies in the Middle East and North Africa would jeopardize their revenue streams and domestic legitimacy, as well as their efforts to assert their primacy across the Islamic world. [N]either country is prepared to elevate the interests of its people over the demands of ideology. “All success stories start with a vision,” Deputy Crown Prince Salman is quoted as saying on the Vision 2030 website. But vision is insufficient to bridge the gap between aspiration and reality; a serious agenda to implement either the Saudi or the Iranian vision would require painful compromises to regime ideology and a fundamental overhaul of the institutions and the structure of power in both countries. Imagine, though, for a moment, that these far-fetched ambitions were quite serious, and that both the Saudi and Iranian leadership were determined to do what was necessary to truly wean their economies off oil dependence. Consider what it might mean for the region if these grandiose ambitions were not simply the illusions of overpriced consultants and embattled technocrats—if a leadership emerged in one or both of the Middle East’s most powerful actors prepared to invest political capital in a genuine transformation of priorities and policies. What might be possible if Tehran and Riyadh sought to compete for economic opportunities instead of fueling violence and sectarianism around the region? If instead of a vicious sectarian and geopolitical rivalry, these two old adversaries engaged in a race to the top? What will it take to move these visions from wishful thinking to reality? More than rhetoric, to be sure. But even the articulation of improbable objectives will have its impact. As documented in a recent book, Iran’s post-revolutionary experience demonstrates that the regime’s reliance on promises of economic gains has generated public expectations for effective and accountable governance. Now Iranians and Saudis have been told by their leaders—who happen to be officially infallible—that the time has come to transcend oil. What might happen if they believe it? Authors Emma BordenSuzanne Maloney Full Article
udi How close is President Trump to his goal of record-setting judicial appointments? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 12:01:29 +0000 President Trump threatened during an April 15 pandemic briefing to “adjourn both chambers of Congress” because the Senate’s pro forma sessions prevented his making recess appointments. The threat will go nowhere for constitutional and practical reasons, and he has not pressed it. The administration and Senate Republicans, though, remain committed to confirming as many judges… Full Article
udi Can leading universities be engines of sustainable development? A conversation with Judith Rodin By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 10 Feb 2020 17:15:57 +0000 In our ongoing exploration of trends in higher education, we are looking at how leading higher education institutions can contribute to much needed social change both inside and outside their classroom walls. There is an increasing interest among universities around the world to actively contribute to the United Nations Sustainable Development goals, well beyond their… Full Article
udi GCC News Roundup: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait implement new economic measures (April 1-30) By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 10:15:33 +0000 Gulf economies struggle as crude futures collapse Gulf debt and equity markets fell on April 21 and the Saudi currency dropped in the forward market, after U.S. crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on a coronavirus-induced supply glut. Saudi Arabia’s central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20… Full Article
udi Saudi Arabia wants out of Yemen By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 13 Apr 2020 15:12:56 +0000 Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a unilateral cease-fire in Yemen reflects the kingdom’s dire economic and social crisis caused by the pandemic and the fall in oil prices. It’s not clear if the Houthis will accept the cease-fire, but it is certain that Yemen is completely unprepared for the outbreak of the virus in the poorest… Full Article
udi How Saudi Arabia’s proselytization campaign changed the Muslim world By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 20:50:00 +0000 Full Article
udi Why nations (including the U.S. and Iran) comply with their agreements By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 Much of the latest discourse about a prospective nuclear agreement with Iran—with commentary on whether future U.S. presidents could renege on an agreement, on whether an agreement would be binding or non-binding, and so forth—reflects misconceptions on why nations observe international agreements to which they are party, and misconceptions even of the very nature of… Full Article
udi Pack the Court? Putting a popular imprint on the federal judiciary By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 03 Apr 2019 14:02:56 +0000 In 1996, to head off calls to impeach a life-tenured federal judge for ill-considered remarks about police officers, Chief Justice William Rehnquist cautioned that “judicial independence does not mean that the country will be forever in sway to groups of non-elected judges.” He recalled Franklin Roosevelt’s failed 1937 proposal to pack the Supreme Court by… Full Article
udi Judiciary in the 21st century: Ideas for promoting ethics, accountability, and transparency By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 27 Jun 2019 15:51:51 +0000 On June 21, 2019, Brookings Vising Fellow Russell Wheeler testified at a hearing of the House of Representatives Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet. Wheeler argued in his testimony and response to members’ questions that: 1. The U.S. Supreme Court should create a code of conduct to serve, as does the Code… Full Article
udi Trump’s judicial appointments record at the August recess: A little less than meets the eye By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 08 Aug 2019 14:11:29 +0000 Judicial confirmations go on vacation during the Senate’s August recess, but are likely to resume with a vengeance in September. What’s the shape of the Trump administration’s judicial appointments program at this point? Basically, the administration and Senate have: seated a record number of court of appeals (circuit) judges, although changes in the appellate courts’… Full Article
udi Judicial appointments in Trump’s first three years: Myths and realities By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 28 Jan 2020 20:59:35 +0000 A December 24 presidential tweet boasted “187 new Federal Judges have been confirmed under the Trump Administration, including two great new United States Supreme Court Justices. We are shattering every record!” That boast has some truth but, to put it charitably, a lot of exaggeration. Compared to recent previous administrations at this same early-fourth-year point… Full Article
udi How close is President Trump to his goal of record-setting judicial appointments? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 12:01:29 +0000 President Trump threatened during an April 15 pandemic briefing to “adjourn both chambers of Congress” because the Senate’s pro forma sessions prevented his making recess appointments. The threat will go nowhere for constitutional and practical reasons, and he has not pressed it. The administration and Senate Republicans, though, remain committed to confirming as many judges… Full Article
udi Justin Wolfers Rejoins Brookings Economic Studies as Senior Fellow By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 00:00:00 -0400 Justin Wolfers, professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan, re-joins Brookings, Vice President and Economic Studies Co-Director Karen Dynan announced today. Wolfers was a visiting fellow from 2010-2011. A world-renowned empirical economist, Wolfers will continue in his role as co-editor, along with David Romer of the University of California, of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA), the flagship economic journal of the Institution. He will continue his focus on labor economics, macroeconomics, political economy, economics of the family, social policy, law and economics, public economics, and behavioral economics. His appointment as senior fellow will last 13 months. Wolfers is also a research associate with the National Bureau for Economic Research, a research affiliate of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, a research fellow of the German Institute for the Study of Labor, and a senior scientist for Gallup, among other affiliations. He is a contributor for Bloomberg View, NPR Marketplace, and the Freakonomics website and was named one of the 13 top young economists to watch by the New York Times. Wolfers did his undergraduate work at the University of Sydney, Australia and received his Master’s and Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. He is a dual Australian-U.S. national and was once an apprentice to a bookie which led to his interest in prediction markets. “We are pleased to re-welcome Justin back to Economic Studies,” said Dynan. “His work continues to challenge the conventional wisdom, and we look forward to collaborating with him once again.” “Justin is outstanding at communicating economic ideas to a wide audience, as evidenced by his regular writings for media as well as his large social media presence,” added Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies. “I have enormous affection for the Brookings Institution, which provides not only a home for deep scholarly research, but also an unmatched platform for engaging the policy debate,” said Wolfers. “The Economic Studies program has a rich history of being the go-to place for policymakers, and I look forward to coming back and engaging in debate with my colleagues there.” Full Article
udi Saudi Arabia’s execution of al-Nimr throws U.S. policy dilemmas into sharp relief By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 Jan 2016 12:05:00 -0500 What a way to start the new year. Decades of Saudi-Iranian tensions reached a new high this past week. The cycle of reactions to Riyadh’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr on January 2 is a reminder of how the Saudis, and their Iranian rivals, have viewed and used sectarianism throughout the tumultuous period since 2011. Al-Nimr was arrested in 2012 and subsequently sentenced to death for allegedly "seeking ‘foreign meddling’ in Saudi Arabia, ‘disobeying’ its rulers and taking up arms against the security forces." The arrest was meant not merely as a signal to Tehran, but at least as much to Saudi Arabia’s own Shiite minority. Shiites comprise as much as 20 percent of the Saudi population, and are concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern Province—and the community has regularly erupted in protests against its economic and political marginalization. In 2011, amid the Arab Spring uprisings in majority-Shiite Bahrain, Saudi Shiites also demonstrated for the release of long-held prisoners, and Saudi forces shot and killed several Shia in the streets. Riyadh’s decision to carry out the death sentence was greeted with demonstrations in Iran and attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities. This Iranian reaction must have been calculated, as al-Nimr has been on “death row” for a very long time. In response, Saudi Arabia quickly cut ties with its longtime geopolitical foe and urged fellow Sunni governments to follow suit. So far, Bahrain and Sudan have also cut off relations, and both Qatar and the UAE have downgraded them. Governments on both sides of the Sunni-Shiite divide found a sectarian narrative useful in rallying their populations and in justifying their actions in response to the 2011 Arab uprisings. The sectarian narrative has helped the parties in this larger regional power struggle mobilize support by playing up the sectarian dimension of protests in Bahrain, the Assad regime’s crackdown in Syria, and the breakdown of inclusive politics in Iraq. Likewise, many Sunni-led countries have found sectarian rhetoric an effective way to rally Sunni citizens, intimidate their own Shiite populations, and to justify crackdowns on dissent. Governments on both sides of the Sunni-Shiite divide found a sectarian narrative useful in rallying their populations and in justifying their actions in response to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Last April, I wrote that Iran was likely to escalate its asymmetric efforts to destabilize Arab politics by exploiting the cracks within Arab societies. They have done so, and it is a form of escalation the Saudis are ill-equipped to match. Last summer, I suggested that the Sunni Arab states could defend best against this Iranian subversion by tamping down sectarian tensions and working to heal the rifts within their own societies through inclusive political and economic policies. So far, I have not seen much effort from the Arab Gulf states in that direction—instead, they have doubled down on divisive sectarianism in Yemen and elsewhere. As this escalatory spiral advances, civilians will pay the price. Some are portraying the decision to execute al-Nimr as a negative Saudi response to Iranian efforts at rapprochement over the last few weeks. I do not necessarily see it that way, because the Iranians have done as much as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to provoke and exploit tensions between the two in recent times. That notwithstanding, there is no question this execution will inflame sectarian tensions in the Gulf and Iraq, as well as present the Islamic State with new opportunities. It has been clear for some time that the U.S. focus on the threat from the so-called Islamic State is simply not matched by the Saudis, who are far more concerned about Iran and Shiite expansionism than by this violent extremist Sunni group in their neighborhood. As such, the execution and ensuing crisis brings the clash of U.S. and Saudi interests into sharp relief and has the potential to become an inflection point in regional affairs – not necessarily because of the way the Saudi and Iranian governments choose to play, but because of how others might react. For example, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi quickly and publicly condemned the execution. The execution—and the inevitable crackdown on Shiite protests in Qatif—might increase pressure on Abadi from Shiites in Iraq (and from Iran) to demonstrate sectarian preferences in his rhetoric and policy. That could prevent him from moving forward on steps Washington has been pushing to bring Iraqi Sunnis back into the political fold. This easily could threaten the anti-Islamic State campaign in Iraq, since it relies on Sunnis in Ramadi, Mosul, and elsewhere turning away from Islamic State and back toward the Iraqi state. Iraqi counterterrorism forces have taken much of Ramadi, but they cannot hold it without local Sunni support. Increased Islamic State influence in the Arabian Peninsula would certainly challenge the Saudi government and prompt a renewed securitization of domestic policy. The Islamic State worked hard to stoke sectarian tensions within the Gulf states over the past year, carrying out attacks on Shiite mosques in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The GCC leaders were not drawn in at that stage, instead expressing solidarity with their Shiite compatriots. But this time, a Sunni Gulf government is taking steps that exacerbate sectarian tensions—and that could very easily push the Islamic State to take up the issue again by attempting more such attacks. Increased Islamic State influence in the Arabian Peninsula would certainly challenge the Saudi government and prompt a renewed securitization of domestic policy. It would be an ironic outcome of a Saudi move—47 executions, mostly of Sunni extremists—that was intended to deter ISIS sympathizers. At a moment when low oil prices and a tightened financial future constrain their capacity to coopt a large, underemployed, youthful populace, this is not a recipe for stability. The possibility that ISIS will gain from this crisis illustrates the problem with governments self-interestedly wielding that sectarian narrative is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it actually increases the incentive on both sides of the sectarian divide to escalate their real power competition, both directly and through proxies. Today, that narrative of sectarian conflict is far more than rhetoric in Iraq and Syria, where a true intercommunal conflict is underway. More immediately, the ripple effects of al-Nimr’s execution spotlight American policy dilemmas in the region. The escalation in sectarian conflict threatens the nascent Syrian peace process. It increases the Islamic State’s scope for action there, threatens the political dimension of the anti-Islamic State strategy in Iraq, and incentivizes Sunni extremism in the Arabian Peninsula. It pushes the Yemen war further from resolution as well, leaving al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) with room to grow and plan attacks against the American homeland. And it puts the United States into a very tight spot as it continues diplomatic dialogue with Iran in the wake of the nuclear agreement. Given this beginning, 2016 looks to be an even tougher year for the United States in the Middle East than 2015. Authors Tamara Cofman Wittes Full Article
udi Reassessing the U.S.-Saudi partnership By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 21 Apr 2016 09:30:00 -0400 Event Information April 21, 20169:30 AM - 10:30 AM EDTFalk AuditoriumBrookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC 20036 Register for the EventThe United States alliance with Saudi Arabia dates back to 1943, making the U.S. relationship with the Kingdom one of America's longest-standing in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is a key counterterrorism and diplomatic partner within the region, yet the alliance has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years, especially in the period following the 9/11 attacks, when questions about Saudi support for extremist causes emerged. Saudi Arabia’s prosecution of the war in Yemen has added to the criticism, with many observers blaming the Kingdom for the unfolding humanitarian crisis within the Arab world's poorest state. In recent comments, President Barack Obama has been critical of Saudi policies, despite U.S. logistical and intelligence support to Saudi Arabia’s war effort in Yemen. On April 21, the Intelligence Project and Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted U.S. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut to discuss the U.S.-Saudi alliance with Senior Fellows Bruce Riedel and Tamara Cofman Wittes. Senator Murphy has urged a more rigorous approach to cooperation with Riyadh that balances U.S. counterterrorism interests, strategic imperatives, and human rights concerns, and has led efforts on Capitol Hill to debate the war in Yemen. Cofman Wittes, director of the Center for Middle East Policy, provided introductory remarks and moderated the discussion. Join the conversation on Twitter at #USSaudi. Video Reassessing the U.S.-Saudi partnership Audio Reassessing the U.S.-Saudi partnership Transcript Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf) Event Materials 20160421_us_saudi_transcript Full Article
udi Impact on Saudi Arabia By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 Full Article
udi Not his father’s Saudi Arabia By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 18 Oct 2018 20:07:50 +0000 Full Article
udi Was Saudi King Salman too sick to attend this week’s Arab League summit? By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Mon, 30 Nov -0001 00:00:00 +0000 King Salman failed to show at the Arab League summit this week in Mauritania, allegedly for health reasons. The king’s health has been a question since his accession to the throne last year. Full Article Uncategorized
udi Venezuela: more mercenaries arrested including two US special forces veterans By www.marxist.com Published On :: Tue, 05 May 2020 14:55:45 +0100 A number of mercenaries had been killed and others arrested in La Guaira on 3 May while trying to disembark in Venezuela as part of a plot against the Maduro government. On 4 May, another eight mercenaries were arrested in the coastal town of Chuao in Aragua state, amongst them two former US special forces veterans. Full Article Venezuela
udi Former piano studio converted into modern 189 sq. ft. micro-apartment By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 13 Feb 2019 15:54:48 -0500 Once a centrally located piano practice space, it's been converted into a comfortable little apartment with the help of some smart space-saving strategies. Full Article Design
udi Minimalist multi-use unit creates more intimate studio apartment in Sydney By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 26 Jul 2016 07:00:00 -0400 With everything happening in one space, studio apartments can often feel too cluttered. This Sydney apartments gets a space makeover with the addition of a clever multifunctional unit that partitions the space and stores things out of sight. Full Article Design
udi Laneway Studio is a tiny rooftop house in the city By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 03 Jul 2018 14:58:36 -0400 Built on top of an existing garage, this laneway house in Australia makes use of what's already there. Full Article Design
udi Toyota Recalls 3.8 Million Vehicles, Including Prius Hybrids By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:41:15 -0400 Photo: Wikipedia, Public domain 2004 to 2009 Prius Included in Toyota's September 2009 Recall Toyota has just announced a huge recall. About 3.8 million vehicles are included, and that includes the 2004 to 2009 Prius hybrid. Since that's probably a Full Article Transportation
udi Designer's awesome secret studio is suspended under bridge By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 25 Aug 2017 08:00:00 -0400 Ephemeral and unexpected, this outdoor workspace is intended as an urban refuge. Full Article Design
udi STUDIO-E shows there's more to green building than just saving energy By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 03 May 2013 09:06:00 -0400 Air quality, choice of materials and finishes are also concerns in this house in Oregon. Full Article Design
udi Richard Heinberg's Tiny Fibonacci Studio By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 02 Nov 2012 07:19:03 -0400 Author, activist and post-carbon rabble rouser Richard Heinberg is also a dabbler in green building. Take a tour of his tiny hand-built backyard studio. Full Article Design
udi Mobile solar 'sail' powers Shigeru Ban's spherical auditorium in Paris (Video) By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 14 Jun 2017 13:59:18 -0400 Looking like a "great ship," this solar-powered music venue is a new gateway into the city. Full Article Design
udi Derelict garage studio transformed into bright open loft in Paris By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 14 Mar 2018 09:00:00 -0400 A small, rundown garage and artist's studio becomes a new home to a family of three. Full Article Design
udi Interface Studio Builds Modular Student Residence By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Thu, 11 Nov 2010 11:16:30 -0500 Philadelphia architects Interface Studio are known to TreeHugger for their work with PostGreen and on the 100K house. They have also just completed a modular student residence at Temple University that really does demonstrate Full Article Design
udi True Studio is a 162 sq. ft. modern shipping container home By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 16 Nov 2018 14:14:48 -0500 This cozy and compact dwelling out of Oregon packs one bed, one bathroom, a kitchen and porch. Full Article Design
udi NASA records quake on Mars, and it's gorgeously eerie (audio) By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 24 Apr 2019 12:02:45 -0400 For the first time ever, NASA has recorded a likely marsquake – listen to the haunting tremor here. Full Article Science
udi Beach audit reveals which brands are worst offenders for plastic waste By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 26 Sep 2017 07:02:00 -0400 Knowing where trash comes from is the first step in figuring out better, more sustainable solutions. Full Article Business
udi 5 benefits of a night shower (including improved sleep) By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 24 Jul 2019 10:18:01 -0400 Trade the morning shower for one before bed for better sleep and more. Full Article Living
udi Saudi Prince building solar powered city with robots, glowing sand and an artificial moon By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Mon, 29 Jul 2019 10:26:34 -0400 Will NEOM be "an aspirational society that heralds the future of human civilization" or "a totalitarian surveillance state"? Full Article Design
udi Montreal design studio exchanging free coworking space for food donations (Video) By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 16 Dec 2016 13:58:09 -0500 You can work with other location independent workers and do some holiday good deeds at the same time. Full Article Living
udi EPA ruling on Roundup pesticides heavily swayed by Monsanto-backed studies By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Fri, 06 Nov 2015 11:35:20 -0500 When reviewing the safety of glyphosate, the Environmental Protection Agency considered just five independent studies, and 27 industry-funded studies. Full Article Business
udi Oprah Takes on Veganism, Harpo Studios Institutes Meatless Mondays By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 02 Feb 2011 13:39:14 -0500 With guests Kathy Freston and Michael Pollan, Oprah dedicated her full show yesterday to veganism and meat production. She and her staffers went vegan for a week, some of them have decided to continue the diet (or go "veganish") even Full Article Living
udi Nudie Jeans' repair shops should be the new standard for sustainable fashion By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Thu, 29 May 2014 14:57:25 -0400 We’ve all ripped a pair of jeans, but we’re not all tailors. Nudie Jeans has a great solution. Full Article Living
udi What's wrong with modern buildings? Everything, including Upfront Carbon Emissions By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Mon, 24 Jun 2019 11:43:26 -0400 Finally, people are beginning to take this issue seriously. Full Article Design
udi Taking Back the City: studio d'ARC Live/Work By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Mon, 07 Jan 2008 11:46:55 -0500 There are so many missing teeth, so many vacant lots in so much of rust belt North America. We showed how Superkül took back a sketchy main street store in Toronto for their live/work space; Now Azure Magazine shows us how Full Article Design
udi Studio 804 creates smaller houses for a changing market By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Mon, 18 Nov 2019 09:54:20 -0500 Dan Rockhill and his students keep pushing the building envelope. Full Article Design
udi Bristol Prints Own Money, Including Banksy-notes and Eco Themes, to Spur Local Buying By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Sun, 23 Sep 2012 01:00:00 -0400 The British city of Bristol hopes to promote local business with their own high-security scrip featuring local designs Full Article Business
udi Stair of the Week: DNA Stair from Studio P-H-A By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 10 Jun 2008 09:19:46 -0400 As we noted in our review of the New York Times Building communication stair, a standard principle of design today should be comfortable, bright stairs that serve as more than fire escapes, that encourage people to take the stairs instead of the Full Article Design
udi Amazon tribe has the healthiest hearts ever studied By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Mon, 27 Mar 2017 13:28:00 -0400 Heart attacks and strokes are virtually unknown among the Tsimane people of the Bolivian rainforest. What can we learn from this? Full Article Living
udi New Finnish study confirms that BMW and Audi owners drive like idiots By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Wed, 29 Jan 2020 12:44:22 -0500 Not only that, they are "argumentative, stubborn, disagreeable and unempathetic." And all men. Full Article Transportation
udi Sliding Library Instantly Creates Extra Studio at Hip Buenos Aires Apartment By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 13 Mar 2012 11:55:24 -0400 In this beautiful renovation of a 1927 apartment, the architects created a moving structure that holds the owners large book collection while temporary dividing the living space. Full Article Design
udi Startup Takes Google Street View Approach to Home Energy Audits By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Tue, 10 Apr 2012 11:58:07 -0400 What if the Google Street View car took thermal energy scans of all the country's buildings and then built a database of building energy efficiency information? That's the concept behind startup company Essess's approach to home energy audits. Full Article Technology
udi The Green Chair by Oscar-Nominated Design Studio Mariscal is Affordable and 100% Recyclable (Photos) By www.treehugger.com Published On :: Thu, 26 Jan 2012 05:30:00 -0500 An affordable, long-lasting and attractive chair made from 100% recycled and recyclable plastic, designed in Barcelona by Estudio Mariscal. Need it far away? Then just buy the seat and get local legs! Full Article Design