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EVENT DEBRIEF: The Future of Ukraine: Reconstruction, Energy Security, and Innovation

The following is an event write-up about the recent Future of Diplomacy Project (FDP) seminar on “The Future of Ukraine: Reconstruction, Energy Security, and Innovation” moderated by Ambassador Paula J. Dobriansky, Senior Fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project. 




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The Bright Future of Diplomacy

Training the next generation of foreign policy practitioners is one of the key missions of the Future of Diplomacy (FDP) and the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship. 




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Potential Fruits of the Biden-Putin Summit

The last time Joe Biden met Vladimir Putin, the two did not exactly hit it off. During the March 2011 meeting the-then vice president of the United States urged the then-prime minister of Russia not to return to the Kremlin, and then claimed to have reached unflattering conclusions about his Russian counterpart’s soul after the meeting was over. Putin too seems to have no love lost for Biden, even if he has been less blunt in showing it.




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Dynamics of Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Threats to Post-Soviet Russia

Simon Saradzhyan was invited to publicly brief the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee addressing the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The consensus study is a congressionally mandated analysis included in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1299I) sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy).  Nearly 60 stakeholders concerned about this topic from the Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, State Department, National Security Council, US Congress, the National Labs, and many non-governmental organizations were in attendance. The briefings are available at the NAS event website. Video of the presentation can be found here.




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The Benefits of Africa's New Free Trade Area

The creation in June 2015 of a free trade area from Cape Town to Cairo is possibly the most significant event in Africa since the formation of the Organization of African Unity in 1963. It is a grand move to merge existing regional organization into a single African Economic Community.




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Why Our Stereotypes of African Agriculture Are All Wrong

Calestous Juma (@calestous) will host a joint Twitter chat with the Elumelu Foundation on June 18, 2016, at 9:00 AM (EDT). Ask questions via #AskCJuma or #TEEPagricReport!

From newspaper editors to TV anchors to bloggers, the default symbol of African agriculture is an African woman holding a hand hoe. This imagery highlights the drudgery African women face in farming. But it also conflates family farming with the broader agricultural enterprise.




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Rebooting African Economies: The Place of Science and Technology in Society

"African countries are already at the forefront of harnessing these technologies. For example, Rwanda has set itself the ambitious goal of building the first drone airport in the world. An increasing number of African countries are leveraging drone technology to address a variety of resource mapping, delivery and agricultural services. It is through such efforts that salient basic research challenges are likely to emerge."




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Remembering Our Colleague Professor Calestous Juma

Our colleague Calestous Juma—who passed away on December 15 at age 64 after a long illness—was a pioneering, prolific, and influential scholar/practitioner in science and technology policy for sustainable well-being. He joined Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) in 1999 as Director of the Science, Technology, and Innovation Project (a joint venture of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Center for International Development) and became Professor of the Practice of International Development in 2002, a position in which he maintained his exceptional productivity and engagement with policy, despite illness, up to the time of his death.




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Private Sector Solutions for Climate Change: A Conversation with Michael Toffel

Michael Toffel, Senator John Heinz Professor of Environmental Management and Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School (HBS), discusses the many ways in which business and governments can and are working together to address climate change in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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HPCA Hosts COP 28 Side Event on the Challenges and Opportunities of Reducing Global Methane Emissions

The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements (HPCA) assembled a panel of leading academics and government officials to discuss strategies for achieving significant methane emissions reductions at relatively low costs at an official COP 28 Side Event last Wednesday (Dec. 6). The event, titled “Reducing Global Methane Emissions: Imperatives, Opportunities, and Challenges,” was moderated by HPCA Director Robert Stavins.




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Examining the Outcomes of COP 28: A Conversation with Amy Harder

Amy Harder, the founding Executive Editor of the climate policy publication Cipher News, expressed her surprise with several positive outcomes from the recent 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 28) in Dubai during a special episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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The Intersection of Trade and Climate Policy: A Conversation with Kim Clausing

UCLA Law School Professor Kimberly Clausing gives the Biden Administration high praise for its climate policies in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.” The podcast is produced by the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.




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After Backlash, Harvard Professor Holds Tense Conversation on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Tarek Masoud, who questioned Iriqat’s views of Oct. 7 and how a two-state solution could be achieved during the event, said in an interview later on Thursday that he was “reasonably confident and hopeful” the discussion was an opportunity for learning, and added he appreciated that Iriqat “did not deny the atrocities of Oct. 7.” Understanding the Palestinian perspective is critical for moving toward peace and a two-state solution, Masoud said. Masoud and Iriqat agreed to discuss her controversial social media posts during the dialogue. Iriqat said that she did not intend to justify the violence on Oct. 7, which included kidnappings of children and elderly, beheadings, and massacres of civilians, but meant to place the attack in the context of a decades-long conflict. She was intensely critical of Israel throughout the conversation, saying the “settler-colonial project started 76 years ago.”




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6 Months On: What is the Impact of the War in Gaza?

6 months on: What is the impact of the war in Gaza?
Brookings experts reflect on the conflict




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The Gulf Moment and the Making of the Khaleeji State

The paper argues for putting aside the old rentier state paradigm that has long dominated Gulf literature, considering the emergence of both the Gulf Moment and the United Arab Emirates Momentum (henceforth UAE Momentum). Instead, it offers a novel analytical concept of the Khaleeji state, incorporating both the exceptionalist and normalist approaches to Gulf studies. The Khaleeji state is also a way to comprehend the unfolding of the Gulf Moment. The term Gulf Moment indicates the profound influence that the Arab Gulf States (AGS) maintain over the rest of the Arab world at the turn of the twenty-first century. The UAE momentum is currently the main engine of the Gulf Moment.




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The impact of Iran’s attack on Israel

Brookings scholars offer their insights following Iran’s drone and missile attack against Israel on April 13, 2024. Their responses provide perspectives on the implications for various actors as well as a range of policy issues.




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AI Will Increase the Quantity — and Quality — of Phishing Scams

Gen AI tools are rapidly making these emails more advanced, harder to spot, and significantly more dangerous. Recent research showed that 60% of participants fell victim to artificial intelligence (AI)-automated phishing, which is comparable to the success rates of non-AI-phishing messages created by human experts. Companies need to: 1) understand the asymmetrical capabilities of AI-enhanced phishing, 2) determine the company or division’s phishing threat severity level, and 3) confirm their current phishing awareness routines.




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The Hacking of Culture and the Creation of Socio-Technical Debt

In an era in which internet companies dominate both public and private life, both power and culture are increasingly corporate, write Kim Córdova and Bruce Schneier.










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We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe

The non-Soviet members of the Warsaw Pact contributed to the end of the Cold War along with the superpowers. These Eastern European states recognized that their relationship with the Soviet Union would impede their success in the post–Cold War world, so they ended the Pact.




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The 50th Anniversary of GPS: New Avenues for Cooperating with Europe's Galileo

This paper delves into the evolution and future prospects of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), with a particular focus on the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) and Europe's Galileo. As GPS celebrates its 50th anniversary, it is a timely moment to assess its historical trajectory, current status, and future directions, especially considering the emergence of new competitors like China's BeiDou. Based on interviews with two GNSS experts from the European Commission, this study aims to analyze the potential for cooperation between GPS and Galileo, exploring avenues for collaboration and mutual learning.




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Polls Show Record Low Number of Russians Willing to Permanently Move Abroad

The share of Russians who would like to leave Russia for permanent residence in another country has reached a record low, according to the results of a national poll conducted by Russia’s Levada Center on March 21-27, 2024.  Of the countries Russians were eager to relocate to, the U.S. topped the list (11%), followed by Germany (8%) and Italy and Turkey (6% each). China ranked 10-11 along with Canada.That seven out of the top 11 countries Russians would like to relocate to are members of the collective West, with 46% interested in moving to these countries, also shows the limits of the Kremlin’s efforts to instill anti-Western sentiments in the Russian public.




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Database on U.S. Department of Energy Budgets for Energy Research, Development, and Demonstration (1978–2025R)

The July 2024 update to our database on the U.S. government investments in energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (ERD3) through the U.S. Department of Energy.




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A Failure of Security and Democracy

Juliette Kayyem writes that politicians and security experts, especially those focused on the upcoming conventions in Milwaukee and Chicago and future political rallies, must now reckon with the evident mismatch between what we know about political violence—it is pervasive and indiscriminate, according to the FBI—and how we plan for it.




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The Middle East Conflict That the U.S. Can't Stay Out Of

Juliette Kayyem argues that the sooner President Joe Biden acknowledges that the United States will likely be drawn into a fight to protect shipping traffic through the Suez Canal, the more time the U.S. military has to plan, and the less severe the harm will be to the global economy.




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Don't 'Jeopardize Free Speech That Is Fundamental' to Harvard, Says Prof

In this Q&A, Joseph S. Nye talks about his advice for the interim and future president of Harvard in the wake of Claudine Gay's resignation, which countries should be highest on our radar to prevent the threat of nuclear war, what role the U.S. should play in the Russia-Ukraine war, the significance of U.S. alliances in the Middle East, and more.




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The Other Side of the Strait: The Strategic Significance of the Houthi’s Aggression for East Africa

Iranian-backed militants in Yemen are clashing with the United States and British naval forces in the Red Sea over Israel’s operations in Gaza, all in a complex dance for geopolitical leverage in the Middle East. Yet, there is another region with a stake in the conflict brewing in the Bab al-Mandab strait, one seemingly beyond the world’s purview – the Horn of Africa.




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The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats.




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Global Players: The Role of International Humanitarian Organizations in Africa

On April 2, the study group met for the second time to evaluate the role of international humanitarian groups in shaping political and social outcomes in Africa. The group examined how these organizations deal with emergencies, crises, and conflict situations across the continent, and scrutinized their influence on policy decisions and discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of their involvement. Discussions covered the expanding influence of organizations like the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), and the International Rescue Committee (ICR). The study group counted with the presence of external expert guest Professor Sabs K. Quereshi, a senior-level leader with 17+ years of experience in global health, gender equality, health policy and equity, national security, humanitarian response, and government and multilateral affairs sectors in the U.S., with the UN, and worldwide.




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America Still Retains a Soft Power Advantage over China

Joseph Nye posits that an open civil society that allows protest can be a soft power asset.




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Not So Innocent: Clerics, Monarchs, and the Ethnoreligious Cleansing of Western Europe

Ethnic cleansing is not only a modern phenomenon. The medieval Catholic Church saw non-Christians as a threat and facilitated the ethnoreligious cleansing of Muslim and Jewish communities across Western Europe. Three conditions made this possible: The rising power of the papacy as a supranational religious authority; its dehumanization of non-Christians; and competition among Catholic Western European monarchs that left them vulnerable to papal-clerical demands to eradicate non-Christians. These findings revise our understanding twentieth- and twenty-first-century ethnic cleansing in places like Cambodia, Iraq, Myanmar, the Soviet Union, and Syria.




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Africa Beyond the Headlines: A Kaleidoscopic Exploration of Contemporary African Politics and International Cooperation

Dr. Gloria Ayee led a study group over the course of five sessions during the Spring of 2024, exploring the current pivotal moment on the African continent. Participants of the study group were invited to reflect on the role that international cooperation must play in supporting inclusive, sustainable development in Africa, as well as to move beyond outdated perspectives and learn about Africa’s profound transformation through trade, investments in clean energy and health, and youth empowerment initiatives.




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Beyond the Headlines: A Kaleidoscopic Exploration of Contemporary African Politics and International Cooperation

Dr. Gloria Ayee led a study group over the course of five sessions during the Spring of 2024, exploring the current pivotal moment on the African continent. Reflecting back, Dr. Ayee highlights the key takeaways from the study group.




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Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

David Kearn argues that the idea that the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 would be by the United States in the defense of Taiwan against a conventional Chinese invasion would have significant, negative, and long-lasting, diplomatic ramifications. It is difficult to fathom the myriad potential consequences, but U.S. nuclear weapon use would almost certainly shatter the non-proliferation regime as a functioning entity, incentivize states (including China) to acquire or improve their existing nuclear arsenal, and damage America's standing globally.




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Putin’s Latest Nuclear Messaging: Softer Tone or Threat of Use?

On March 13, President Vladimir Putin granted an interview, in which he again delved into the conditions under which he says he would initiate the use of nuclear weapons. His remarks were so ambiguous that it caused mainstream Western media organizations—which tend to agree on what to emphasize in news out of the Kremlin—to put divergent headlines on the news stories that they ran about this particular interview. “Putin, in Pre-Election Messaging, Is Less Strident on Nuclear War. The Russian leader struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons in an interview with state television,” was the NYT’s headline. In contrast, the FT’s headline was “Russia ‘prepared’ for nuclear war, warns Vladimir Putin. President resumes bullish rhetoric over use of atomic arsenal if west threatens Moscow’s sovereignty,” while CBS News ran with “Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons, claims Russia's arsenal ‘much more’ advanced than America's” and WSJ led with “Putin Rattles Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections; Raising specter of nuclear confrontation.” So, which is it? Has Putin just struck a softer tone about nuclear weapons or has he rattled his nuclear saber yet again? The answer is both.




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Iran and Nuclear Verification: 20 Years of Continuing Sturm and Drang

Report by Trevor Findlay about recent politics surrounding the Iranian Nuclear Program.




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Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order

Mariana Budjeryn presents "Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on the Global Nuclear Order" at the DOE/NNSA Administrator's Strategy Forum




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The Enormous Risks and Uncertain Benefits of an Israeli Strike Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Assaf Zoran argues that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may have the opposite result of prompting an escalation in Iran’s nuclear developments, a pattern previously observed in response to kinetic actions attributed to Israel.




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The Death of an Iranian Hard-Liner

Mohammad Tabaar writes that former Iranian President Raisi will be remembered for putting the country on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader's vision. He will be memorialized for positioning Iran as a nuclear threshold state and establishing it as a rising power—and for doing so not despite external pressure, but because of it.




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When Actions Speak Louder Than Words: Adversary Perceptions of Nuclear No-First-Use Pledges

Would the world be safer if the United States pledged to never use nuclear weapons first? Supporters say a credible pledge would strengthen crisis stability, decrease hostility, and bolster nonproliferation and arms control. But reactions to no-first-use pledges by the Soviet Union, China, and India suggest that adversaries perceive pledges as credible only when the political relationship between a state and its adversary is already relatively benign, or when the state’s military has no ability to engage in nuclear first use against the adversary. 




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The End of Soft Power?

Joseph Nye argues that even as the hard power of weapons and armies resurges on the global stage, the cultivation and use of soft power will still hold currency in the twenty-first century.




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Morality Is the Enemy of Peace

Stephen Walt argues that once governments use moral arguments to justify their positions in international disputes, cutting a deal becomes much harder, even when it would be in everyone's interest.




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Impacts of Electric Vehicle Subsidies: A Conversation with Hunt Allcott

Behavioral economist Hunt Allcott, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Doerr School of Sustainability at Stanford University, questioned the impact of new and used electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in the latest episode of “Environmental Insights: Discussions on Policy and Practice from the Harvard Environmental Economics Program.”




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Event Debrief: The Future of Resource Adequacy in a Decarbonized Grid

Concerns over resource adequacy during periods of peak demand or supply crises are rising with increasing deployment of renewable energy. Conleigh Byers says mandatory forward market contracts could help.




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Leveraging Charging Strategies to Reduce Grid Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) can challenge or support electricity systems depending on how they are charged. Controlled charging that combines technical solutions with heterogenous EV user behaviors can reduce peak demand to avoid grid constraints and support the integration of renewable energy.