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The Central African Republic: Security, Development and Responding to the Humanitarian Situation

Invitation Only Research Event

3 February 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Denise Brown, United Nations Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in the Central African Republic
Chair: Ben Shepherd, Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

With two-thirds of the country’s population estimated to be in need of humanitarian aid and one-quarter either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighbouring countries, the Central African Republic (CAR) continues to face serious and complex humanitarian challenges. The country’s forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for December 2020 risk inflaming CAR’s volatile security situation particularly with the return of former leader, François Bozizé, ousted by the Séléka rebel coalition leader, Michel Djotodia, who has also returned from exile.

At this event, Denise Brown will discuss CAR’s current security, humanitarian and development situations and the role of actors such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). She will also discuss prospects for much-needed governance reform and reconciliation.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Decentralization and Cross-border Integration in the Horn of Africa

Research Event

4 February 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:15pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Mohamed Guleid, Chief Executive Officer, Frontier Counties Development Council
Nuradin Dirie, Chair, Puntland Presidential Advisory Council
Aden Abdi, Horn of Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources
Chair: Dr Zahbia Yousuf, Senior Research Advisor, Saferworld 

The interdependence of communities across the Horn of Africa results from social, familial, linguistic and cultural ties that cross territorial borders. Such linkages are reinforced by established patterns of movement and trade, often leading to stronger political and social connections between communities on either side of borders, than with their respective national capitals. States in the region are increasingly being challenged by demands for decentralization and more effective local governance. Improved understanding of the complexity of sub-national and cross-border political and economic contexts will be required to meet these demands and support enhanced governance so that challenges such as marginalization, intercommunal conflict and more equitable sharing of resources can be effectively addressed.

At this event, speakers will examine some of the key subnational and cross-border relations in the Horn of Africa. They will also discuss initiatives and stakeholders needed to support common solutions to building peace, furthering development and bolstering inclusive growth and integration. 

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Concentration Determination of >200 Proteins in Dried Blood Spots for Biomarker Discovery and Validation [Technological Innovation and Resources]

The use of protein biomarkers as surrogates for clinical endpoints requires extensive multilevel validation including development of robust and sensitive assays for precise measurement of protein concentration. Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) is a well-established mass-spectrometric method that can be used for reproducible protein-concentration measurements in biological specimens collected via microsampling. The dried blood spot (DBS) microsampling technique can be performed non-invasively without the expertise of a phlebotomist, and can enhance analyte stability which facilitate the application of this technique in retrospective studies while providing lower storage and shipping costs, because cold-chain logistics can be eliminated. Thus, precise, sensitive, and multiplexed methods for measuring protein concentrations in DBSs can be used for de novo biomarker discovery and for biomarker quantification or verification experiments. To achieve this goal, MRM assays were developed for multiplexed concentration measurement of proteins in DBSs.

The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) was found to have a median total coefficient of variation (CV) of 18% for 245 proteins, whereas the median LLOQ was 5 fmol of peptide injected on column, and the median inter-day CV over 4 days for measuring endogenous protein concentration was 8%. The majority (88%) of the assays displayed parallelism, whereas the peptide standards remained stable throughout the assay workflow and after exposure to multiple freeze-thaw cycles. For 190 proteins, the measured protein concentrations remained stable in DBS stored at ambient laboratory temperature for up to 2 months. Finally, the developed assays were used to measure the concentration ranges for 200 proteins in twenty same sex, same race and age matched individuals.




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Centrelink blocks 60,000 calls a day, blames smartphone apps

Centrelink blocked 22m phone calls last year, with smartphone apps blamed for inflating the figures.




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Centrelink apologises for web welfare shutdown

Centrelink clients around Australia are furious over missing payments.




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Centrelink's IT meltdown hits the disability pension

Centrelink's tech woes disrupts Disability Pension medical crackdown.




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Centrelink wrongly hits 70,000 families with bills for up to $726

Computer glitch blamed as welfare agency hits tens of thousands with bills for money that is not owed.




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Centrelink apologises for new privacy breach

Rookie email error shares hundred of email addresses – twice.




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Centrelink debt debacle shows government is unprepared for digital revolution

The public service needs to embrace partnerships if it's to harvest big data's massive yields.




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Construction of mega new IT data storage centre under way in Fyshwick

Fyshwick is set to get another massive IT data storage facility from 2018.




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Kazakhstan: Reaching Out to Central Asian Neighbours

4 December 2019

Annette Bohr

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Despite its regional outreach, Kazakhstan’s diplomatic priority will remain Russia, China, and Europe.

2019-12-04-Kaz.jpg

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakh Majilis Chairman Nurlan Nigmatulin and ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev at an inauguration ceremony in parliament. Photo: Pavel AleksandrovTASS via Getty Images.

Leaders of the resource-rich Central Asian region have the propensity to remain in power until mortality dictates otherwise. Much like the UK and Brexit, however, few wanted to see Central Asia’s longest reigning ruler, Kazakhstan’s septuagenarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, crash out without a deal.

The sudden departure of the country’s official leader of the nation with no clear succession plan could have led to investment chaos, intra-elite fighting and the unravelling in a matter of months of a system he had built over decades, à la Uzbekistan following the death of long-serving autocrat Islam Karimov in 2016.

In order to avoid just such a ‘no-deal’ scenario and ensure the continuity of his policies, in March Nazarbayev carefully choreographed his own resignation and the election of a hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while retaining plum positions and powers for himself.

Tokayev’s assumption of the presidency was accompanied by protesters in the streets, increasing wealth inequality, rising Sinophobia among rank-and-file Kazakhstanis, a hard-to-kick economic dependence on oil revenues and a lack of clarity as to which leader—the old or the new president—would actually be calling the shots. But, amidst this plethora of concerns, as argued in a recent Chatham House report, Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition, one bright spot has been the tangible growth of intra-Central Asian cooperation, with the Nazarbayev-Tokayev ruling duo appearing eager to improve the regional dialogue.

Kazakhstan has long shaped its identity as a Eurasian state that has acted as more of an intermediary between Russia and Central Asia than as an integral part of the Central Asian region. But since 2017, in particular, Kazakhstan has been increasingly looking for opportunities to boost hitherto weak cooperation with its Central Asian neighbours. While this is first and foremost owing to the liberalization of Uzbekistan’s large market, there are other factors at work that get less airplay.

One such factor is a perceptible disentangling from the Kremlin’s policy directions as Kazakhstan has come to view Russia’s foreign policy as increasingly neo-colonial. The example of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union is in many respects more off-putting than inspiring, and Nur-Sultan does not want to be locked tightly into the union’s economic orbit. And in distancing itself slightly from Moscow in order to limit Russian leverage in its affairs, Nur-Sultan has shown itself to be more open to Central Asian regional initiatives.

As part of the leadership’s plan to offset oil dependence, Kazakhstan aspires to become the transport, telecommunications and investment hub for Eurasian integration. The intense focus on connectivity and the development of logistical arteries and infrastructure could have the knock-on effect of boosting trade within the Central Asian region and reducing transit times, which are currently greater than in most other parts of the globe.

In addition, demographic trends and educational shifts that favour ethnic Kazakhs, together with a growing ethno-nationalist narrative, have allowed the state’s leadership to identify more closely with Kazakhstan’s common Central Asian heritage and, by extension, a common Central Asian region—although Kazakhstan’s leadership still remains eager to demonstrate that the country is not just another ‘stan’. The coming to power of President Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan appears to have made Kazakhstan more aware of the interconnectedness of the two countries in terms of geographical location and potential economic complementarities, as well as culture and history.

Not least, there is a growing recognition among the Central Asian states themselves—including isolationist Turkmenistan to a degree—that deepening regional trade is mutually beneficial, especially given the constraints associated with Russia’s economic problems. The strengthening of Kazakhstan’s ties with Uzbekistan has slowly kick-started regional cooperation as a whole: trade turnover between the Central Asian states in 2018 grew by 35 per cent on the previous year.

But both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are keen to stress that there is no discussion of integration or institutionalization, not least because previous attempts at integration have been overtaken by Russia, leaving Central Asia without its own coordinating body.

The official consensus in Kazakhstan is that Uzbekistan’s economic reforms after years of isolation will spur ‘a healthy rivalry’ and ultimately boost Kazakhstan’s own economy, in so far as the competition for foreign investment will require both countries to work harder to improve their respective business and regulatory environments.

At the unofficial level, however, some Kazakhstani analysts view Uzbekistan’s rise as potentially unprofitable, given the possible diversion of some investments and market activity from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan. Moreover, Uzbekistan has the advantage of having undergone a clear change of executive, while it remains unclear which developments await Kazakhstan once First President Nazarbayev leaves the scene for good.

It can certainly be argued that Uzbekistan does pose a potential threat in the long-term to Kazakhstan’s entrenched position as Central Asia’s economic powerhouse: Uzbekistan’s population is one-and-a-half times bigger, even if its nominal GDP is three times smaller. Uzbekistan has a bigger market and a well-developed industrial sector, and is already the regional leader in terms of security. But it is not as though the world’s interest is moving from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan; rather, Uzbekistan is in the process of trying to catch up.

Despite this relatively upbeat picture, Kazakhstan’s combined trade with the other Central Asian states accounts for less than 5 per cent of its total volume of foreign trade—a figure that cannot begin to equal its trade with Russia, China, and Europe. As a result, Kazakhstan will continue to give greater importance to positioning itself as a global player than as a regional leader.

This article was originally published in The Diplomat.




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Functional recombinant apolipoprotein A5 that is stable at high concentrations at physiological pH [Methods]

APOA5 is a low-abundance exchangeable apolipoprotein that plays critical roles in human triglyceride (TG) metabolism. Indeed, aberrations in the plasma concentration or structure of APOA5 are linked to hypertriglyceridemia, hyperchylomicronemia, myocardial infarction risk, obesity, and coronary artery disease. While it has been successfully produced at low yield in bacteria, the resulting protein had limitations for structure-function studies due to its low solubility under physiological buffer conditions. We hypothesized that the yield and solubility of recombinant APOA5 could be increased by: i) engineering a fusion protein construct in a codon optimized expression vector, ii) optimizing an efficient refolding protocol, and iii) screening buffer systems at physiological pH. The result was a high-yield (25 mg/l) bacterial expression system that produces lipid-free APOA5 soluble at concentrations of up to 10 mg/ml at a pH of 7.8 in bicarbonate buffers. Physical characterization of lipid-free APOA5 indicated that it exists as an array of multimers in solution, and far UV circular dichroism analyses show differences in total α-helicity between acidic and neutral pH buffering conditions. The protein was functional in that it bound and emulsified multilamellar dimyristoyl-phosphatidylcholine vesicles and could inhibit postprandial plasma TG accumulation when injected into C57BL/6J mice orally gavaged with Intralipid.




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Effects of omega-O-acylceramide structures and concentrations in healthy and diseased skin barrier lipid membrane models [Research Articles]

Ceramides (Cers) with ultralong (~32-carbon) chains and -esterified linoleic acid, composing a subclass called omega-O-acylceramides (acylCers), are indispensable components of the skin barrier. Normal barriers typically contain acylCer concentrations of ~10 mol%; diminished concentrations, along with altered or missing long periodicity lamellar phase (LPP), and increased permeability accompany an array of skin disorders, including atopic dermatitis, psoriasis, and ichthyoses. We developed model membranes to investigate the effects of the acylCer structure and concentration on skin lipid organization and permeability. The model membrane systems contained six to nine Cer subclasses as well as fatty acids, cholesterol, and cholesterol sulfate; acylCer content—namely, acylCers containing sphingosine (Cer EOS), dihydrosphingosine (Cer EOdS), and phytosphingosine (Cer EOP) ranged from zero to 30 mol%. Systems with normal physiologic concentrations of acylCer mixture mimicked the permeability and nanostructure of human skin lipids (with regard to LPP, chain order, and lateral packing). The models also showed that the sphingoid base in acylCer significantly affects the membrane architecture and permeability and that Cer EOP, notably, is a weaker barrier component than Cer EOS and Cer EOdS. Membranes with diminished or missing acylCers displayed some of the hallmarks of diseased skin lipid barriers (i.e., lack of LPP, less ordered lipids, less orthorhombic chain packing, and increased permeability). These results could inform the rational design of new and improved strategies for the barrier-targeted treatment of skin diseases.




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ER stress increases store-operated Ca2+ entry (SOCE) and augments basal insulin secretion in pancreatic beta cells [Molecular Bases of Disease]

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is characterized by impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and increased peripheral insulin resistance. Unremitting endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress can lead to beta-cell apoptosis and has been linked to type 2 diabetes. Although many studies have attempted to link ER stress and T2DM, the specific effects of ER stress on beta-cell function remain incompletely understood. To determine the interrelationship between ER stress and beta-cell function, here we treated insulin-secreting INS-1(832/13) cells or isolated mouse islets with the ER stress–inducer tunicamycin (TM). TM induced ER stress as expected, as evidenced by activation of the unfolded protein response. Beta cells treated with TM also exhibited concomitant alterations in their electrical activity and cytosolic free Ca2+ oscillations. As ER stress is known to reduce ER Ca2+ levels, we tested the hypothesis that the observed increase in Ca2+ oscillations occurred because of reduced ER Ca2+ levels and, in turn, increased store-operated Ca2+ entry. TM-induced cytosolic Ca2+ and membrane electrical oscillations were acutely inhibited by YM58483, which blocks store-operated Ca2+ channels. Significantly, TM-treated cells secreted increased insulin under conditions normally associated with only minimal release, e.g. 5 mm glucose, and YM58483 blocked this secretion. Taken together, these results support a critical role for ER Ca2+ depletion–activated Ca2+ current in mediating Ca2+-induced insulin secretion in response to ER stress.




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Obesity Reduces Maternal Blood Triglyceride Concentrations by Reducing Angiopoietin-like Protein 4 Expression in Mice

To ensure fetal lipid supply, maternal blood triglyceride (TG) concentrations are robustly elevated during pregnancy. Interestingly, a lower increase in maternal blood TG concentrations has been observed in some obese mothers. We have shown that high-fat (HF) feeding during pregnancy significantly reduces maternal blood TG levels. Therefore, we performed this study to investigate if and how obesity alters maternal blood TG levels. Maternal obesity was established by prepregnant HF feeding (ppHF), which avoided the dietary effect during pregnancy. We found that maternal blood TG concentrations in ppHF dams were not only remarkably lower than control dams, but the TG peak occurred earlier during gestation. Hepatic TG production and intestinal TG absorption were unchanged in ppHF dams, but systemic lipoprotein lipase (LPL) activity was increased, suggesting that increased blood TG clearance contributes to the decreased blood TG concentrations in ppHF dams. Although significantly higher levels of UCP1 protein were observed in iBAT of ppHF dams, Ucp1 gene deletion did not restore blood TG concentrations in ppHF dams. Expression of the angiopoietin-like protein 4 (ANGPTL4), a potent endogenous LPL inhibitor, was significantly increased during pregnancy. However, the pregnancy-induced elevation of blood TG was almost abolished in Angptl4-/- dams. Compared with control dams, Angptl4 mRNA levels were significantly lower in iBAT, gWAT and livers of ppHF dams. Importantly, ectopic overexpression of ANGPTL4 restored maternal blood TG concentrations in ppHF dams. Together, these results indicate that ANGPTL4 plays a vital role in increasing maternal blood TG concentrations during pregnancy. Obesity impairs the rise of maternal blood TG concentrations by reducing ANGPTL4 expression in mice.




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Central {alpha}-Klotho Suppresses NPY/AgRP Neuron Activity and Regulates Metabolism in Mice

α-Klotho is a circulating factor with well-documented anti-aging properties; however, the central role of α-klotho in metabolism remains largely unexplored. The current study investigated the potential role of central α-klotho to modulate NPY/AgRP neurons, energy balance, and glucose homeostasis. Intracerebroventricular (ICV) administration of α-klotho suppressed food intake, improved glucose profiles, and reduced body weight in mouse models of Type I and II diabetes. Furthermore, central α-klotho inhibition via an anti-α-klotho antibody impaired glucose tolerance. Ex vivo patch clamp electrophysiology and immunohistochemical analysis revealed that α-klotho suppresses NPY/AgRP neuron activity, at least in part, by enhancing mIPSC’s. Experiments in hypothalamic GT1-7 cells observed α-klotho induces phosphorylation of AKTser473, ERKthr202/tyr204, and FOXO1ser256, as well as blunts AgRP gene transcription. Mechanistically, fibroblast growth factor 1 (FGFR1) inhibition abolished the downstream signaling of α-klotho, negated its ability to modulate NPY/AgRP neurons, and blunted its therapeutic effects. PI3 kinase inhibition also abolished α-klotho’s ability to suppress food intake and improve glucose clearance. These results indicate a prominent role of hypothalamic α-klotho/FGFR1/PI3K signaling in the modulation of NPY/AgRP neuron activity and maintenance of energy homeostasis, thus providing new insight into the pathophysiology of metabolic disease.




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Acute Hyperglycemia Increases Brain Pregenual Anterior Cingulate Cortex Glutamate Concentrations in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

The brain mechanisms underlying the association of hyperglycemia with depressive symptoms are unknown. We hypothesized that disrupted glutamate metabolism in pregenual anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in type 1 diabetes (T1D) without depression affects emotional processing. Using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), we measured glutamate concentrations in ACC and occipital cortex (OCC) in 13 T1D without major depression (HbA1c=7.1±0.7% [54±7mmol/mol]) and 11 healthy non-diabetic controls (HbA1c=5.5±0.2% [37±3mmol/mol]) during fasting euglycemia (EU) followed by a 60-minute +5.5mmol/l hyperglycemic clamp (HG). Intrinsic neuronal activity was assessed using resting-state blood oxygen level dependent functional MRI to measure the fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations in slow-band 4 (fALFF4). Emotional processing and depressive symptoms were assessed using emotional tasks (Emotional-Stroop, Self-Referent-Encoding-Task SRET) and clinical ratings (HAM-D, SCL-90-R), respectively. During HG, ACC glutamate increased (1.2mmol/kg, +10%, p=0.014) while ACC fALFF4 was unchanged (-0.007, -2%, p=0.449) in T1D; in contrast, glutamate was unchanged (-0.2mmol/kg, -2%, p=0.578) while fALFF4 decreased (-0.05, -13%, p=0.002) in controls. OCC glutamate and fALFF4 were unchanged in both groups. T1D had longer SRET negative-word response-times (p=0.017) and higher depression-rating scores (HAM-D p=0.020; SCL-90-R-depression p=0.008). Higher glutamate change tended to associate with longer Emotional-Stroop response-times in T1D only. Brain glutamate must be tightly controlled during hyperglycemia due to the risk for neurotoxicity with excessive levels. Results suggest that ACC glutamate control mechanisms are disrupted in T1D, which affects glutamatergic neurotransmission related to emotional or cognitive processing. Increased prefrontal glutamate during acute hyperglycemic episodes could explain our previous findings of associations between chronic hyperglycemia, cortical thinning and depressive symptoms in T1D.




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Central KATP Channels Modulate Glucose Effectiveness in Humans and Rodents

Hyperglycemia is a potent regulator of endogenous glucose production (EGP). Loss of this ‘glucose effectiveness’ is a major contributor to elevated plasma glucose concentrations in type 2 diabetes (T2D). ATP-sensitive potassium channels (KATP channels) in the central nervous system (CNS) have been shown to regulate EGP in humans and rodents. We examined the contribution of central KATP channels to glucose effectiveness. Under fixed hormonal conditions (‘pancreatic clamp’ studies), hyperglycemia suppressed EGP by ~50% in both non-diabetic humans and normal Sprague Dawley rats. By contrast, antagonism of KATP channels with glyburide significantly reduced the EGP-lowering effect of hyperglycemia in both humans and rats. Furthermore, the effects of glyburide on EGP and gluconeogenic enzymes in rats were abolished by intracerebroventricular (ICV) administration of the KATP channel agonist diazoxide. These findings indicate that about half of EGP suppression by hyperglycemia is mediated by central KATP channels. These central mechanisms may offer a novel therapeutic target for improving glycemic control in T2D.




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The Metabolic Responses to 24-h Fasting and Mild Cold Exposure in Overweight Individuals are Correlated and Accompanied by Changes in FGF21 Concentration

A greater decrease in 24-h energy expenditure (24EE) during 24h fasting defines a thriftier metabolic phenotype prone to weight gain during overfeeding and resistant to weight loss during caloric restriction. As the thermogenic response to mild cold exposure (COLD) may similarly characterize this human phenotype identified by acute fasting conditions, we analyzed changes in 24EE and sleeping metabolic rate (SLEEP) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during 24h fasting at thermoneutrality (24°C) and during energy balance both at thermoneutrality (24°C) and mild cold (19°C) in 20 healthy volunteers (80% male, age: 36.6±11.4y, percentage body fat: 34.8±10.5%). Greater decrease in 24EE during fasting (thriftier phenotype) was associated with less increase in 24EE during COLD, i.e. less cold-induced thermogenesis. Greater decreases in plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) after 24h fasting and after COLD were highly correlated and associated with greater decreases in SLEEP in both conditions. We conclude that the metabolic responses to short-term fasting and COLD are associated and mediated by the liver-derived hormone FGF21. Thus, the 24EE response to COLD further identifies the thrifty versus spendthrift phenotype, providing an additional setting to investigate the physiological mechanisms underlying the human metabolic phenotype and characterizing the individual susceptibility to weight change.




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Effect of a Sustained Reduction in Plasma Free Fatty Acid Concentration on Intramuscular Long-Chain Fatty Acyl-CoAs and Insulin Action in Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Mandeep Bajaj
Nov 1, 2005; 54:3148-3153
Metabolism




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Evidence Against an Important Role of Plasma Insulin and Glucagon Concentrations in the Increase in EGP Caused by SGLT2 Inhibitors

Mariam Alatrach
Apr 1, 2020; 69:681-688
Pathophysiology




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The Morass of Central American Migration: Dynamics, Dilemmas and Policy Alternatives

Invitation Only Research Event

22 November 2019 - 8:15am to 9:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Anita Isaacs, Professor of Political Science, Haverford College; Co-Director, Migration Encounters Project
Juan Ricardo Ortega, Principal Advisor for Central America, Inter-American Development Bank
Chair: Amy Pope, Associate Fellow, Chatham House; US Deputy Homeland Security Adviser for the Obama Administration (2015-17)

2019 has seen a record number of people migrating from Central America’s Northern Triangle – an area that covers El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Estimates from June 2019 have placed the number of migrants at nearly double of what they were in 2018 with the increase in numbers stemming from a lack of economic opportunity combined with a rise in crime and insecurity in the region. The impacts of migration can already be felt within the affected states as the exodus has played a significant role in weakening labour markets and contributing to a ‘brain drain’ in the region. It has also played an increasingly active role in the upcoming US presidential election with some calling for more security on the border to curb immigration while others argue that a more effective strategy is needed to address the sources of migration. 

What are the core causes of Central American migration and how have the US, Central American and now also Mexican governments facilitated and deterred migration from the region? Can institutions be strengthened to alleviate the causes of migration? And what possible policy alternatives and solutions are there that could alleviate the pressures individuals and communities feel to migrate?   

Anita Isaacs, professor of Political Science at Haverford College and co-director of the Migration Encounters Project, and Juan Ricard Ortega, principal advisor for Central America at the Inter-American Development Bank, will join us for a discussion on the core drivers of migration within and across Central America.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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Kazakhstan: Reaching Out to Central Asian Neighbours

4 December 2019

Annette Bohr

Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Despite its regional outreach, Kazakhstan’s diplomatic priority will remain Russia, China, and Europe.

2019-12-04-Kaz.jpg

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakh Majilis Chairman Nurlan Nigmatulin and ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev at an inauguration ceremony in parliament. Photo: Pavel AleksandrovTASS via Getty Images.

Leaders of the resource-rich Central Asian region have the propensity to remain in power until mortality dictates otherwise. Much like the UK and Brexit, however, few wanted to see Central Asia’s longest reigning ruler, Kazakhstan’s septuagenarian president Nursultan Nazarbayev, crash out without a deal.

The sudden departure of the country’s official leader of the nation with no clear succession plan could have led to investment chaos, intra-elite fighting and the unravelling in a matter of months of a system he had built over decades, à la Uzbekistan following the death of long-serving autocrat Islam Karimov in 2016.

In order to avoid just such a ‘no-deal’ scenario and ensure the continuity of his policies, in March Nazarbayev carefully choreographed his own resignation and the election of a hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while retaining plum positions and powers for himself.

Tokayev’s assumption of the presidency was accompanied by protesters in the streets, increasing wealth inequality, rising Sinophobia among rank-and-file Kazakhstanis, a hard-to-kick economic dependence on oil revenues and a lack of clarity as to which leader—the old or the new president—would actually be calling the shots. But, amidst this plethora of concerns, as argued in a recent Chatham House report, Kazakhstan: Tested by Transition, one bright spot has been the tangible growth of intra-Central Asian cooperation, with the Nazarbayev-Tokayev ruling duo appearing eager to improve the regional dialogue.

Kazakhstan has long shaped its identity as a Eurasian state that has acted as more of an intermediary between Russia and Central Asia than as an integral part of the Central Asian region. But since 2017, in particular, Kazakhstan has been increasingly looking for opportunities to boost hitherto weak cooperation with its Central Asian neighbours. While this is first and foremost owing to the liberalization of Uzbekistan’s large market, there are other factors at work that get less airplay.

One such factor is a perceptible disentangling from the Kremlin’s policy directions as Kazakhstan has come to view Russia’s foreign policy as increasingly neo-colonial. The example of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union is in many respects more off-putting than inspiring, and Nur-Sultan does not want to be locked tightly into the union’s economic orbit. And in distancing itself slightly from Moscow in order to limit Russian leverage in its affairs, Nur-Sultan has shown itself to be more open to Central Asian regional initiatives.

As part of the leadership’s plan to offset oil dependence, Kazakhstan aspires to become the transport, telecommunications and investment hub for Eurasian integration. The intense focus on connectivity and the development of logistical arteries and infrastructure could have the knock-on effect of boosting trade within the Central Asian region and reducing transit times, which are currently greater than in most other parts of the globe.

In addition, demographic trends and educational shifts that favour ethnic Kazakhs, together with a growing ethno-nationalist narrative, have allowed the state’s leadership to identify more closely with Kazakhstan’s common Central Asian heritage and, by extension, a common Central Asian region—although Kazakhstan’s leadership still remains eager to demonstrate that the country is not just another ‘stan’. The coming to power of President Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan appears to have made Kazakhstan more aware of the interconnectedness of the two countries in terms of geographical location and potential economic complementarities, as well as culture and history.

Not least, there is a growing recognition among the Central Asian states themselves—including isolationist Turkmenistan to a degree—that deepening regional trade is mutually beneficial, especially given the constraints associated with Russia’s economic problems. The strengthening of Kazakhstan’s ties with Uzbekistan has slowly kick-started regional cooperation as a whole: trade turnover between the Central Asian states in 2018 grew by 35 per cent on the previous year.

But both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are keen to stress that there is no discussion of integration or institutionalization, not least because previous attempts at integration have been overtaken by Russia, leaving Central Asia without its own coordinating body.

The official consensus in Kazakhstan is that Uzbekistan’s economic reforms after years of isolation will spur ‘a healthy rivalry’ and ultimately boost Kazakhstan’s own economy, in so far as the competition for foreign investment will require both countries to work harder to improve their respective business and regulatory environments.

At the unofficial level, however, some Kazakhstani analysts view Uzbekistan’s rise as potentially unprofitable, given the possible diversion of some investments and market activity from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan. Moreover, Uzbekistan has the advantage of having undergone a clear change of executive, while it remains unclear which developments await Kazakhstan once First President Nazarbayev leaves the scene for good.

It can certainly be argued that Uzbekistan does pose a potential threat in the long-term to Kazakhstan’s entrenched position as Central Asia’s economic powerhouse: Uzbekistan’s population is one-and-a-half times bigger, even if its nominal GDP is three times smaller. Uzbekistan has a bigger market and a well-developed industrial sector, and is already the regional leader in terms of security. But it is not as though the world’s interest is moving from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan; rather, Uzbekistan is in the process of trying to catch up.

Despite this relatively upbeat picture, Kazakhstan’s combined trade with the other Central Asian states accounts for less than 5 per cent of its total volume of foreign trade—a figure that cannot begin to equal its trade with Russia, China, and Europe. As a result, Kazakhstan will continue to give greater importance to positioning itself as a global player than as a regional leader.

This article was originally published in The Diplomat.




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Inner Circle to create song from winning poem - Close to 100 entries for Circle of Light contest

IT IS said that every cloud has a silver lining, and that could still hold true, even in the midst of a terrifying global pandemic. Despite COVID-19, the cycle of life continues, and out of it has sprung forth an inspiring poetry competition,...




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JCDC weighs options amid COVID-19 pause - 230 entries received for Festival Song Competition

By the month of May in any given year, the many and varied events and competitions staged by the Jamaica Cultural Development Commission (JCDC) islandwide would have been in high gear. Each year the JCDC rolls out its much-anticipated menu board...




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Patient spotlight - How can we get better at providing patient centred care?

Participants in our discussion on person centred care in January agreed that a change in culture and better use of technology could benefit both patients and doctors. At the roundtable: Fiona Godlee (chair), editor in chief, The BMJ Tessa Richards, senior editor, patient partnership, The BMJ Rosamund Snow, patient editor, The BMJ Navjoyt Ladher,...




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Should doctors boycott working in Australia’s immigration detention centres?

However well intentioned, working in detention centres amounts to complicity in torture, says David Berger, a district medical officer in emergency medicine at Broome Hospital in Australia. However, Steven Miles, chair in bioethics at the University of Minnesota thinks that they play an important role in telling the world about conditions in...




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PPAR{gamma} Ligands Increase Expression and Plasma Concentrations of Adiponectin, an Adipose-Derived Protein

Norikazu Maeda
Sep 1, 2001; 50:2094-2099
Pathophysiology




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Downswell reaches out to Central Village - Carry Me singer delivers care packages to community

The wet weather last Saturday (May 2) could not dampen the spirits of award-winning gospel artiste and ordained evangelist Kevin Downswell as he ventured into the St Catherine community of Central Village, where he spent some of his formative years...




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20 questions that will define the NL Central

It was only five years ago that the Cardinals won the National League Central with only 90 wins. Heck, it was only 12 years ago that the Cubs won it with 85, and 13 that the Cardinals won it with 83. Point is: There have been times in recent baseball history that the NL Central was not exactly the toughest gauntlet in the sport. But in 2019, it looks like the scariest division in baseball.




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Taking COVID-19 heads on - Student entrepreneurs’ inventions prove viable weapons against deadly virus

As the global battle against the deadly COVID-19 disease wages on, with each country’s government, healthcare industry, and general public playing its part in defeating this new and relatively unknown enemy, two seemingly unlikely foot soldiers...




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Multimodality Imaging of Inflammation and Ventricular Remodeling in Pressure-Overload Heart Failure

Inflammation contributes to ventricular remodeling after myocardial ischemia, but its role in nonischemic heart failure is poorly understood. Local tissue inflammation is difficult to assess serially during pathogenesis. Although 18F-FDG accumulates in inflammatory leukocytes and thus may identify inflammation in the myocardial microenvironment, it remains unclear whether this imaging technique can isolate diffuse leukocytes in pressure-overload heart failure. We aimed to evaluate whether inflammation with 18F-FDG can be serially imaged in the early stages of pressure-overload–induced heart failure and to compare the time course with functional impairment assessed by cardiac MRI. Methods: C57Bl6/N mice underwent transverse aortic constriction (TAC) (n = 22), sham surgery (n = 12), or coronary ligation as an inflammation-positive control (n = 5). MRI assessed ventricular geometry and contractile function at 2 and 8 d after TAC. Immunostaining identified the extent of inflammatory leukocyte infiltration early in pressure overload. 18F-FDG PET scans were acquired at 3 and 7 d after TAC, under ketamine-xylazine anesthesia to suppress cardiomyocyte glucose uptake. Results: Pressure overload evoked rapid left ventricular dilation compared with sham (end-systolic volume, day 2: 40.6 ± 10.2 μL vs. 23.8 ± 1.7 μL, P < 0.001). Contractile function was similarly impaired (ejection fraction, day 2: 40.9% ± 9.7% vs. 59.2% ± 4.4%, P < 0.001). The severity of contractile impairment was proportional to histology-defined myocardial macrophage density on day 8 (r = –0.669, P = 0.010). PET imaging identified significantly higher left ventricular 18F-FDG accumulation in TAC mice than in sham mice on day 3 (10.5 ± 4.1 percentage injected dose [%ID]/g vs. 3.8 ± 0.9 %ID/g, P < 0.001) and on day 7 (7.8 ± 3.7 %ID/g vs. 3.0 ± 0.8 %ID/g, P = 0.006), though the efficiency of cardiomyocyte suppression was variable among TAC mice. The 18F-FDG signal correlated with ejection fraction (r = –0.75, P = 0.01) and ventricular volume (r = 0.75, P < 0.01). Western immunoblotting demonstrated a 60% elevation of myocardial glucose transporter 4 expression in the left ventricle at 8 d after TAC, indicating altered glucose metabolism. Conclusion: TAC induces rapid changes in left ventricular geometry and contractile function, with a parallel modest infiltration of inflammatory macrophages. Metabolic remodeling overshadows inflammatory leukocyte signal using 18F-FDG PET imaging. More selective inflammatory tracers are requisite to identify the diffuse local inflammation in pressure overload.




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Manual acupuncture versus sham acupuncture and usual care for prophylaxis of episodic migraine without aura: multicentre, randomised clinical trial




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Lack of evidence for interventions offered in UK fertility centres




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Trends in Unaccompanied Child and Family Migration from Central America

This fact sheet uses U.S. and Mexican apprehensions data to trace the evolving trends in unaccompanied child and family migration from Central America through Mexico and to the United States, and discusses the push factors and pull factors responsible for the increase in flows seen in recent years, as well as the growing role of smuggling organizations.




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Creatividad Dentro de la Crisis: Opciones Legales para Inmigrantes Venezolanos en América Latina

Convocamos un seminario en línea (webinar) en español en la ocasión del lanzamiento del informe, Creatividad dentro de la crisis: opciones legales para inmigrantes venezolanos en América Latina, que describe donde se han radicado los migrantes venezolanos; las medidas que han utilizado los gobiernos latinoamericanos para regularizar el estatus legal de los migrantes venezolanos; y los esfuerzos por integrar a los recién llegados en sus nuevas comunidades de residencia.




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Central American Development: Two Decades of Progress and Challenges for the Future

This report summarizes the economic and social development policy achievements of Central American countries over the past 20 years, as well as the notable obstacles to development that remain. The author identifies long-term challenges and outlines how they can be incorporated into a new development agenda.




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Children on the Run: An Analysis of First-Hand Accounts from Children Fleeing Central America

This event with UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres includes a discussion on the state of citizen security in Central America and the resulting humanitarian impact, featuring findings from Children on the Run, a UNHCR report based on interviews with more than 400 unaccompanied children from the region.




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Building Skills in North and Central America: Barriers and Policy Options toward Harmonizing Qualifications in Nursing

Amid aging populations and the growth of chronic diseases, the demand for skilled health-care professionals is on the rise in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This report explores the policy implications, benefits, and challenges of harmonizing nursing qualifications in the region, suggesting that a more collaborative approach could result in greater supply and quality of nurses.




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Reception and Reintegration Services in Central America: Ending the Deportee Revolving Door

A webinar releasing a report examining deportations to Central America and reception and reintegration services in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.




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Stopping the Revolving Door: Reception and Reintegration Services for Central American Deportees

For a growing population of migrants deported from Mexico and the United States to Central America, the conditions upon return typically are worse than when they left, setting up a revolving-door cycle of migration, deportation, and remigration. This report provides a detailed profile of reception and reintegration services offered in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to deported migrants, examining their challenges and opportunities for improvement. 




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Reception and Reintegration Services in Central America: Ending the Deportee Revolving Door

A webinar releasing a report examining deportations to Central America and reception and reintegration services in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.




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Inmigrantes Centroamericanos en los Estados Unidos

La migración centroamericana a los Estados Unidos comenzó en gran números en los años ochenta, impulsada por la inestabilidad política, los desastres naturales y las dificultades económicas. Aproximadamente 3,4 millones de centroamericanos vivieron en los Estados Unidos en 2015, principalmente de El Salvador, Guatemala y Honduras. Dónde viven en los Estados Unidos, su competencia en inglés, su estado legal, las vías de inmigración, y más, están cubiertos en este artículo.




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La Situación de Cambio Constante entre EE UU y México: Tendencias y Políticas de Migración, Incluyendo Menores No Acompañados

Una llamada en español que analiza las dinámicas cambiantes y las cuestiones políticas relacionadas con la migración a través de México a los Estados Unidos.




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La Situación de Cambio Constante entre EE UU y México: Tendencias y Políticas de Migración, Incluyendo Menores No Acompañados

Durante este seminario, ponentes presentaron hallazgos de un reciente informe que utiliza datos de agencias gubernamentales mexicanas, entrevistas con funcionarios clave y relatos de la sociedad civil para examinar el marco legal para la protección de menores no acompañados y su aplicación, al igual que las brechas entre este marco y su aplicación durante los procesos de detención, interrogación y alojamiento. El presidente de MPI, Andrew Selee, también expuso cómo el cambio en la dinámica política en Estados Unidos puede afectar las cuestiones migratorias con México, así como los efectos en la relación bilateral en medio de tensiones sobre el muro fronterizo, la renegociación del acuerdo del TLCAN y una cifra significativa de repatriaciones de migrantes mexicanos.




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Temporary Protected Status at Risk: Implications for Central America and U.S. Policy

As the Trump administration weighs the future of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Salvadorans, this teleconference focuses on the legal framework for TPS (particularly for Hondurans and Salvadorans) and profile of current TPS holders; the capacity of El Salvador and Honduras to receive and meaningfully reintegrate returnees; and the implications of TPS termination for broader U.S. policy goals in Central America.




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Promising Strategies for Reintegration of Migrants Returning to Mexico and Central America

Authors of a year-long study of reception and reintegration services in Mexico and the Northern Triangle discuss the findings of their fieldwork, including the differing reintegration needs of individual migrant groups, promising reception and reintegration programs, ongoing challenges for origin communities, and policy recommendations to improve reintegration strategies. 




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As Lesvos Battles Migration Crisis Fatigue, the Value of Centralized Migration Decision-Making Is Questioned

As Greece's Aegean islands continue to grapple with migrants arriving on their shores, decisions regarding the needs of newcomers are negotiated in Brussels and Athens, far removed from the situation on the ground. Meanwhile, local communities have had successes in hosting migrants, as this article drawing on observations from the hospitality center and refugee camp on Lesvos explores.




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Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D3 Concentrations and Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Among Type 2 Diabetic Patients

Massimo Cigolini
Mar 1, 2006; 29:722-724
BR Cardiovascular and Metabolic Risk




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Relationship Between {beta}-Cell Mass and Fasting Blood Glucose Concentration in Humans

Robert A. Ritzel
Mar 1, 2006; 29:717-718
BR Pathophysiology/Complications