rta ¿Se Están Cerrando las Puertas? Respuestas a la Migración Venezolana en América Latina y el Caribe By www.migrationpolicy.org Published On :: Thu, 13 Feb 2020 13:08:48 -0500 MPI llevó a cabo un seminario en línea para marcar el lanzamiento de: Un portal sobre Migración en América Latina y el Caribe; y un informe que examina los efectos de las políticas migratorias y de integración en 11 países en América Latina y el Caribe ante el aumento de la migración venezolana y nicaragüense. Full Article
rta Baseball and Linguistic Uncertainty By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 14:00:00 +0000 In my youth I played an inordinate amount of baseball, collected baseball cards, and idolized baseball players. I've outgrown all that but when I'm in the States during baseball season I do enjoy watching a few innings on the TV.So I was watching a baseball game recently and the commentator was talking about the art of pitching. Throwing a baseball, he said, is like shooting a shotgun. You get a spray. As a pitcher, you have to know your spray. You learn to control it, but you know that it is there. The ball won't always go where you want it. And furthermore, where you want the ball depends on the batter's style and strategy, which vary from pitch to pitch for every batter.That's baseball talk, but it stuck in my mind. Baseball pitchers must manage uncertainty! And it is not enough to reduce it and hope for the best. Suppose you want to throw a strike. It's not a good strategy to aim directly at, say, the lower outside corner of the strike zone, because of the spray of the ball's path and because the batter's stance can shift. Especially if the spray is skewed down and out, you'll want to move up and in a bit.This is all very similar to the ambiguity of human speech when we pitch words at each other. Words don't have precise meanings; meanings spread out like the pitcher's spray. If we want to communicate precisely we need to be aware of this uncertainty, and manage it, taking account of the listener's propensities.Take the word "liberal" as it is used in political discussion.For many decades, "liberals" have tended to support high taxes to provide generous welfare, public medical insurance, and low-cost housing. They advocate liberal (meaning magnanimous or abundant) government involvement for the citizens' benefit.A "liberal" might also be someone who is open-minded and tolerant, who is not strict in applying rules to other people, or even to him or herself. Such a person might be called "liberal" (meaning advocating individual rights) for opposing extensive government involvement in private decisions. For instance, liberals (in this second sense) might oppose high taxes since they reduce individuals' ability to make independent choices. As another example, John Stuart Mill opposed laws which restricted the rights of women to work (at night, for instance), even though these laws were intended to promote the welfare of women. Women, insisted Mill, are intelligent adults and can judge for themselves what is good for them.Returning to the first meaning of "liberal" mentioned above, people of that strain may support restrictions of trade to countries which ignore the health and safety of workers. The other type of "liberal" might tend to support unrestricted trade.Sending out words and pitching baseballs are both like shooting a shotgun: meanings (and baseballs) spray out. You must know what meaning you wish to convey, and what other meanings the word can have. The choice of the word, and the crafting of its context, must manage the uncertainty of where the word will land in the listener's mind.Let's go back to baseball again.If there were no uncertainty in the pitcher's pitch and the batter's swing, then baseball would be a dreadfully boring game. If the batter knows exactly where and when the ball will arrive, and can completely control the bat, then every swing will be a homer. Or conversely, if the pitcher always knows exactly how the batter will swing, and if each throw is perfectly controlled, then every batter will strike out. But which is it? Whose certainty dominates? The batter's or the pitcher's? It can't be both. There is some deep philosophical problem here. Clearly there cannot be complete certainty in a world which has some element of free will, or surprise, or discovery. This is not just a tautology, a necessary result of what we mean by "uncertainty" and "surprise". It is an implication of limited human knowledge. Uncertainty - which makes baseball and life interesting - is inevitable in the human world.How does this carry over to human speech?It is said of the Wright brothers that they thought so synergistically that one brother could finish an idea or sentence begun by the other. If there is no uncertainty in what I am going to say, then you will be bored with my conversation, or at least, you won't learn anything from me. It is because you don't know what I mean by, for instance, "robustness", that my speech on this topic is enlightening (and maybe interesting). And it is because you disagree with me about what robustness means (and you tell me so), that I can perhaps extend my own understanding.So, uncertainty is inevitable in a world that is rich enough to have surprise or free will. Furthermore, this uncertainty leads to a process - through speech - of discovery and new understanding. Uncertainty, and the use of language, leads to discovery.Isn't baseball an interesting game? Full Article
rta Jabberwocky. Or: Grand Unified Theory of Uncertainty??? By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:30:00 +0000 Jabberwocky, Lewis Carroll's whimsical nonsense poem, uses made-up words to create an atmosphere and to tell a story. "Billig", "frumious", "vorpal" and "uffish" have no lexical meaning, but they could have. The poem demonstrates that the realm of imagination exceeds the bounds of reality just as the set of possible words and meanings exceeds its real lexical counterpart.Uncertainty thrives in the realm of imagination, incongruity, and contradiction. Uncertainty falls in the realm of science fiction as much as in the realm of science. People have struggled with uncertainty for ages and many theories of uncertainty have appeared over time. How many uncertainty theories do we need? Lots, and forever. Would we say that of physics? No, at least not forever.Can you think inconsistent, incoherent, or erroneous thoughts? I can. (I do it quite often, usually without noticing.) For those unaccustomed to thinking incongruous thoughts, and who need a bit of help to get started, I can recommend thinking of "two meanings packed into one word like a portmanteau," like 'fuming' and 'furious' to get 'frumious' or 'snake' and 'shark' to get 'snark'.Portmanteau words are a start. Our task now is portmanteau thoughts. Take for instance the idea of a 'thingk':When I think a thing I've thought,I have often felt I oughtTo call this thing I think a "Thingk",Which ought to save a lot of ink.The participle is written "thingking",(Which is where we save on inking,)Because "thingking" says in just one word:"Thinking of a thought thing." Absurd!All this shows high-power abstraction.(That highly touted human contraption.)Using symbols with subtle feint,To stand for something which they ain't.Now that wasn't difficult: two thoughts at once. Now let those thoughts be contradictory. To use a prosaic example: thinking the unthinkable, which I suppose is 'unthingkable'. There! You did it. You are on your way to a rich and full life of thinking incongruities, fallacies and contradictions. We can hold in our minds thoughts of 4-sided triangles, parallel lines that intersect, and endless other seeming impossibilities from super-girls like Pippi Longstockings to life on Mars (some of which may actually be true, or at least possible).Scientists, logicians, and saints are in the business of dispelling all such incongruities, errors and contradictions. Banishing inconsistency is possible in science because (or if) there is only one coherent world. Belief in one coherent world and one grand unified theory is the modern secular version of the ancient monotheistic intuition of one universal God (in which saints tend to believe). Uncertainty thrives in the realm in which scientists and saints have not yet completed their tasks (perhaps because they are incompletable). For instance, we must entertain a wide range of conflicting conceptions when we do not yet know how (or whether) quantum mechanics can be reconciled with general relativity, or Pippi's strength reconciled with the limitations of physiology. As Henry Adams wrote:"Images are not arguments, rarely even lead to proof, but the mind craves them, and, of late more than ever, the keenest experimenters find twenty images better than one, especially if contradictory; since the human mind has already learned to deal in contradictions."The very idea of a rigorously logical theory of uncertainty is startling and implausible because the realm of the uncertain is inherently incoherent and contradictory. Indeed, the first uncertainty theory - probability - emerged many centuries after the invention of the axiomatic method in mathematics. Today we have many theories of uncertainty: probability, imprecise probability, information theory, generalized information theory, fuzzy logic, Dempster-Shafer theory, info-gap theory, and more (the list is a bit uncertain). Why such a long and diverse list? It seems that in constructing a logically consistent theory of the logically inconsistent domain of uncertainty, one cannot capture the whole beast all at once (though I'm uncertain about this).A theory, in order to be scientific, must exclude something. A scientific theory makes statements such as "This happens; that doesn't happen." Karl Popper explained that a scientific theory must contain statements that are at risk of being wrong, statements that could be falsified. Deborah Mayo demonstrated how science grows by discovering and recovering from error.The realm of uncertainty contains contradictions (ostensible or real) such as the pair of statements: "Nine year old girls can lift horses" and "Muscle fiber generates tension through the action of actin and myosin cross-bridge cycling". A logically consistent theory of uncertainty can handle improbabilities, as can scientific theories like quantum mechanics. But a logical theory cannot encompass outright contradictions. Science investigates a domain: the natural and physical worlds. Those worlds, by virtue of their existence, are perhaps coherent in a way that can be reflected in a unified logical theory. Theories of uncertainty are directed at a larger domain: the natural and physical worlds and all imaginable (and unimaginable) other worlds. That larger domain is definitely not coherent, and a unified logical theory would seem to be unattainable. Hence many theories of uncertainty are needed.Scientific theories are good to have, and we do well to encourage the scientists. But it is a mistake to think that the scientific paradigm is suitable to all domains, in particular, to the study of uncertainty. Logic is a powerful tool and the axiomatic method assures the logical consistency of a theory. For instance, Leonard Savage argued that personal probability is a "code of consistency" for choosing one's behavior. Jim March compares the rigorous logic of mathematical theories of decision to strict religious morality. Consistency between values and actions is commendable says March, but he notes that one sometimes needs to deviate from perfect morality. While "[s]tandard notions of intelligent choice are theories of strict morality ... saints are a luxury to be encouraged only in small numbers." Logical consistency is a merit of any single theory, including a theory of uncertainty. However, insisting that the same logical consistency apply over the entire domain of uncertainty is like asking reality and saintliness to make peace. Full Article
rta We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Thu, 22 Mar 2012 19:12:00 +0000 We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started. Full Article
rta The gender-fluid history of the Philippines | France Villarta By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 09 Mar 2020 15:01:16 +0000 In much of the world, gender is viewed as binary: man or woman, each assigned characteristics and traits designated by biological sex. But that's not the case everywhere, says France Villarta. In a talk that's part cultural love letter, part history lesson, he details the legacy of gender fluidity and inclusivity in his native Philippines -- and emphasizes the universal beauty of all people, regardless of society's labels. Full Article Higher Education
rta In uncertain times, think like a mother | Yifat Susskind By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 06 Apr 2020 14:50:53 +0000 There's a simple and powerful way to confront the world's most pressing crises, says women's rights activist Yifat Susskind: think like a mother. As she puts it: "When you think like a mother, you prioritize the needs of the many, not the whims of the few." Follow along as she shares moving stories of people around the world who embody this mindset -- and shows how it can also help you see beyond suffering and act to build a better world. Full Article Higher Education
rta How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 10 Dec 2019 21:09:33 +0000 STANDARD ERRORS VS STANDARD DEVIATIONS Click to enlarge There’s an ancient haiku that goes: People confuse a well-estimated mean with a certain outcome Ok, that’s not true. But Jake Hofman, Dan Goldstein, and Jessica Hullman have a new paper (recently accepted at CHI 2020) about this. They bet you’ll think the results of their paper […] The post How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results appeared first on Decision Science News. Full Article Conferences Ideas 2020 certain chi goldstein hofman hullman inferential mean mislead outcome readers results scientific uncertainty well-estimated
rta ESSA Forces Uncomfortable Conversations in Massachusetts Over School Spending By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 24 Jun 2019 00:00:00 +0000 Relying on newly available data under ESSA, a local advocacy group found several districts that spend more money on wealthy students than poor students, despite the state's intentions. Full Article Massachusetts
rta After Okla. Historic Pay Raise, Morale Is Up—But Teacher Shortage Persists By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 14 Aug 2018 00:00:00 +0000 Despite a $6,100 teacher pay raise this spring, school districts report that they're starting the new academic year with nearly 500 teaching vacancies. Full Article Oklahoma
rta How 4 Communities Are Struggling to Prepare Kids for an Uncertain Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 04 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000 Schools are slowly figuring out how to balance thinking globally with acting locally, and recognizing that some key skills are valuable no matter where students end up living. Full Article Wyoming
rta How 4 Communities Are Struggling to Prepare Kids for an Uncertain Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 04 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000 Schools are slowly figuring out how to balance thinking globally with acting locally, and recognizing that some key skills are valuable no matter where students end up living. Full Article Connecticut
rta How 4 Communities Are Struggling to Prepare Kids for an Uncertain Future By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 04 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000 Schools are slowly figuring out how to balance thinking globally with acting locally, and recognizing that some key skills are valuable no matter where students end up living. Full Article Georgia
rta Fault lines in certainty of objects of express trusts / paper presented by Gino (G.E.) Del Pont, Universiity of Tasmania. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: Full Article
rta Important Issues about SMSFs for Family Lawyers - Slides - S Wild. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: Full Article
rta Newstart allowance : is it time to raise it? / research undertaken by The South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide ; funded by the Independent Research Fund. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: This paper assesses whether the Newstart Allowance for unemployed people should be increased. It investigates the relationship of the Newstart Allowance to Average Weekly Earnings, the Federal Minimum Wage, and Australian poverty lines, and considers the typical the duration of unemployment and long term unemployment, duration of time on income support, overseas allowances, cost of living, and a comparison with policy makers' remuneration. It finds that the value of the allowance has eroded since it was first set and that unemployment for many is not a transitional situation, and concludes that an increase is warranted to bridge the gap to the poverty line. Full Article
rta Architects' houses : twenty Australian homes / Stephen Crafti ; photography by Gorta Yuuki. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: Architects -- Australia -- 21st century. Full Article
rta A manual for heartache / Cathy Rentzenbrink. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: Rentzenbrink, Cathy -- Family. Full Article
rta Sand talk : how Indigenous thinking can save the world / Tyson Yunkaporta. By www.catalog.slsa.sa.gov.au Published On :: Aboriginal Australians -- Attitudes. Full Article
rta Libertas Academica By search.wellcomelibrary.org Published On :: Libertas Academica is the publisher of international, peer reviewed scientific, technical and medical journals. Only those which are open access are linked through the Wellcome Library catalogue. Full Article
rta Portable local studies project update for NSW public libraries By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 17 Oct 2019 22:56:58 +0000 The local studies portable collecting project assists NSW public libraries in collecting local stories through oral hist Full Article
rta To Ease Shortage, Indiana District Recruits Teachers to Drive Buses By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 16 Jul 2019 00:00:00 +0000 A suburban Indianapolis district is signing up teachers to drive school buses before and after their usual time in the classroom. Full Article Indiana
rta Die Postmortale Temperatursteigerung / von Adolf Valentin. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Leipzig : J.B. Hirschfeld, 1869. Full Article
rta Die Stirn-Muskulatur des Menschen : Inaugural-Dissertation ... / vorgelegt von Afolf Greeff. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tubingen : E. Riecker, 1888. Full Article
rta Diet and cholera : showing the vital importance of wholesome diet, and that its impurities and deficiencies are the chief cause of cholera, with its premonitory symptoms and treatment : in a series of letters, originally intended for insertion in the &quo By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : S. Highley, 1848. Full Article
rta Discourse on the enlarged and pendulous abdomen : showing it to be a visceral affection, attended with important consequences in the human economy : with cursory observations on diet, exercise, and the general management of health : for the use of the dys By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : Longman, Brown, Green, and Longmans, 1842. Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis anatomico-physiologico-pathologica de oculo humano / submisit Magnus Horrebow. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Havniae : Typis N. Christensen, 1792. Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis, de scorbuto / Jacobus Home. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1781. Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis medica de carditide ... / auctor Gust. Ludov. Hertzberg. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Halae : Typis Grunerti, [1817?] Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis medica de hydrometra / auctore Eduardo Heine. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Erlangae : Typis Jungeanis, 1833. Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis medica de Pertussi quam ... eruditorum examini subiicit ... Johannes Harrison Anglus. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Gottingae : Typis Jo. Christian. Dieterich, [1793] Full Article
rta Dissertatio inauguralis medica sistens casum singularem carcinomatis uteri cum graviditate conjuncti ... / auctor Bertramus Zeppenfeld. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Berolini : Typis Augusti Petschii, 1828. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica, exhibens cogitationes physiologicas de vita, et vivificatione materiae humanum corpus constituentis / Joanni Theodoro vander Kemp. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Excudebant Balfour et Smellie, 1782. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica inauguralis, amplectens quaedam de utero gravido / Benjaminus Kissam. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1783. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica, inauguralis, de halitu cuticulari / Joannes Yule. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1785. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica, inauguralis, de mutatione febrium e tempore Sydenhami, et curatione earum idonea / Jacobus Hutchinson. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1782. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica, inauguralis, de syncope / Jacobus Hare. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1782. Full Article
rta Dissertatio medica, inauguralis, de tuenda salute militum / Andreas Marshall. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgi : Apud Balfour et Smellie, 1782. Full Article
rta Dissertatio solemnis medica exhibens brevem systematicam morborum in gravidis expositionem ... / auctor Franc. Adolphus Jacobi. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Bonnae : Typis Joan. Frid. Abshoven, 1790. Full Article
rta Dissertation on scientific nomenclature, medical and general : exhibiting the defects, anomalies, errors, and discrepancies of its present condition : with suggestions for its improvement / by R.G. Mayne. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : J. Churchill, 1849. Full Article
rta A dissertation on the best mode of treating spasmodic cholera ; with a view of its history and progress, from its origin in India, in 1817 down to the present time ; together with an appendix, containing a review of Dr McCormac's pamphlet, &c / by By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown, and Green, 1834. Full Article
rta A dissertation on the varied direction of the fibres of the muscles, and on the effects of this upon the movements of the body : with an appendix ... / by Alex. Monro. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Edinburgh : [publisher not identified], 1812. Full Article
rta Dissertation sur le passage du sang a travers le coeur : these ... / par David Barry. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Paris : Didot le jeune, 1827. Full Article
rta Dissertation sur les affections locales des nerfs / par Pierre-Jules Descot. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Paris : chez Mlle Delaunay, 1825. Full Article
rta Dissertation sur les généralités de la médecine clinique, présentée au concours pour une chaire de médecine clinique à la Faculté de médecine, le 11 juillet 1831 / par P.A. Piorry. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Paris : Pihan Delaforest (Morinval), 1831. Full Article
rta Dissertation sur les généralités de la physiologie, et sur le plan à suivre dans l'enseignement de cette science. Présentée au concours pour une chaire de physiologie ... le 23 mai 1831 / par P.A. Piorry. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Paris : Pihan Delaforest (Morinval), 1831. Full Article
rta Dissertation sur l'hémiplégie faciale ... thèse ... / par J.-J.-H. Montault. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Paris : Didot le jeune, 1831. Full Article
rta Dissertationes medicæ in Universitate Vindobonensi habitæ ad morbos chronicos pertinentes / Max. Stollii ; edidit et præfatus est Josephus Eyerel. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Viennæ : Typis Christiani Friderici Wappler, 1788-92. Full Article
rta Dissertations on leading philosophical topics / by Alexander Bain. By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : Longmans, Green, 1903. Full Article
rta Domestic medicine : or, a treatise on the prevention and cure of diseases by regimen and simple medicines. With an appendix containing a dispensatory for the use of private practitioners. ... to which are added, some important observations concerning sea- By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : And J. Balfour, and W. Creech, Edinburgh, 1805. Full Article
rta Domestic medicine : or, a treatise on the prevention and cure of diseases by regimen and simple medicines. With an appendix, containing a dispensatory for the use of private practitioners. ... To which are now added, some important observations concerning By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: London : printed for A. Strahan, T. Cadell and W. Davies, 1803. Full Article
