military

Ospreys face flight restrictions through 2025 due to crashes, military tells Congress

The military's hundreds of V-22 Ospreys will not be permitted to fly their full range of missions until at least 2025 following a series of deadly crashes.

The post Ospreys face flight restrictions through 2025 due to crashes, military tells Congress first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

US proposes rules to stop Americans from investing in Chinese technology with military uses

The Treasury Department has fleshed out its proposed rule that would restrict and monitor U.S. investments in China for artificial intelligence, computer chips and quantum computing. The proposed rule, released Friday, stems from President Joe Biden’s August 2023 executive order regarding the access that “countries of concern” have to American dollars that fund advanced technologies, which the U.S. government says would enhance their military, intelligence, surveillance and cyber capabilities. The order identified China, Hong Kong and Macau as countries of concern.

The post US proposes rules to stop Americans from investing in Chinese technology with military uses first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira to face a military court-martial, Air Force says

Massachusetts Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira is expected to face a military court-martial for leaking highly classified military documents.

The post Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira to face a military court-martial, Air Force says first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

North Korean charged in cyberattacks on US hospitals, NASA and military bases

Federal authorities say a North Korean military intelligence operative has been indicted in a conspiracy to hack into American medical centers, military bases and even NASA. The grand jury indictment announced Thursday in Kansas City accuses Rim Jong Hyok of ransomware attacks and other hacks on targets in the U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea. It says he laundered ransom money and used it to fund more cyber attacks on defense, technology and government entities around the world. A $10 million reward is offered for information leading to him or any other foreign operative who attacks critical U.S. infrastructure.

The post North Korean charged in cyberattacks on US hospitals, NASA and military bases first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

Pentagon chief says a six-month temporary budget bill will have devastating effects on the military

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says passage of a six-month temporary spending bill would have widespread and devastating effects on the department and the military. He wrote in a letter Sunday to key members of Congress that passing a continuing resolution that caps spending at 2024 levels, rather than taking action on the proposed 2025 budget will hurt thousands of defense programs, and damage military recruiting just as it is beginning to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has teed up a vote this week on a bill that would keep the federal government funded for six more months.

The post Pentagon chief says a six-month temporary budget bill will have devastating effects on the military first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

US Naval Academy says considering race in admissions helps create a cohesive military

A bench trial began last week in Baltimore federal court in a civil case over affirmative action at American military academies. Attorneys for the U.S. Naval Academy say the school should be allowed to continue using race as an admissions factor because prioritizing diversity in the military makes it stronger and more effective. But the group that brought the case, Students for Fair Admissions, says candidates should be evaluated based only on other factors, including socioeconomics. The group was also behind the case that led to the landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision last year that ended the consideration of race and ethnicity in college admissions. The group also sued West Point, but the Naval Academy case went to trial first.

The post US Naval Academy says considering race in admissions helps create a cohesive military first appeared on Federal News Network.




military

Ultra-Orthodox Jews protest outside Israeli military enlistment office

Ultra-Orthodox Jews protest outside Israeli military enlistment office




military

California Senate to vote on sign-up for military draft

Coalition Senate floor alert in opposition to California SB-1081

The California Senate will vote this week on a bill to automatically register register draft-age applicants for driver’s licenses and state IDs with the Selective Service System for a possible future military draft.

The floor vote in the state Senate on SB-1081 is expected this week and could come at any time.

[Update: The Senate voted 23-2 in favor of SB-1081, with 15 Senators not voting. The Senate approved minor amendments to the bill by its author, which make the bill somewhat worse. The bill now goes to the state Assembly Committee on Transportation, where it is scheduled for a hearing on Monday, 1 July 2024. See this letter to the Assembly Transportation Committee in opposition to the current version of SB-1081.]

SB-1081 was held in the 'suspense' file by the Senate Appropriations Committee, but was called up and sent to the floor for a vote by the full state Senate despite both Democratic and Republican opposing votes in committee, with only minor amendments that fail to assuage any of the opponents of the bill.

As amended, SB-1081 is still opposed by a diverse coalition including the ACLU, the California Immigrant Policy Center, Asian Americans Advancing Justice, and the Military Law Task Force of the National Lawyers Guild.




military

U.S. House committee proposes "automatic" sign-up for military draft

Yesterday, during markup of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2025, the U.S. House Armed Services Committee approved an amendment to the NDAA that would automatically register all draft-aged male U.S. residents with the Selective Service System for a possible military draft, based on information from other Federal databases.

This system of automatic draft registration would replace the system in effect since 1980 in which young men can decide for themselves whether or not to sign up for the draft -- and so many choose not to register that the Selective Service database would be useless for an actual draft.




military

Congress moves toward stepped-up registration for a military draft


[Excerpt from the summary released by the Senate Armed Services Committee of the version of the NDAA for FY 2025 approved by the SASC and to be voted on by the full Senate.]

A proposal to expand registration for a possible military draft to young women as well as young men is moving forward again this year in Congress, along with a seductively simple-seeming but in practice unfeasible proposal to switch from the current system in which young men are required to register with the Selective Service System (SSS) to a system in which the SSS tries to identify and locate everyone eligible for a future draft and automatically register them based on other existing Federal databases from the Social Security Administration, IRS, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, etc.

Today both the U.S. Senate Armed Service Committee and the full U.S. House of Representatives approved different proposals to expand and/or make it harder to avoid the requirement for men ages 18-26 to register with the Selective Service System for a possible military draft.

The proposals for changes to Selective Service registration were approved during consideration of the Senate and House versions of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025, a "must-pass" annual bill that typically runs to more than a thousand pages.

The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved a version of the NDAA that would expand Selective Service registration to include young women as well as young men. This version of the NDAA will now go to the floor as the starting point for consideration and approval by the full Senate.

Also today the full House of Representatives approved a different version of the NDAA that would make Selective Service registration automatic while keeping it for men only.

A House amendment proposed by Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), a West Point graduate and Army veteran, which would have replaced the provision to make draft registration automatic with a provision to repeal the Military Selective Service Act, was not "made in order" by the Rules Committee to be considered or voted on by the full House. There was no separate House floor vote on the proposed change to Selective Service registration, only a single vote on the entirety of the NDAA as a package.

The SASC markup was conducted in closed session, and only a summary of highlights of the version adopted by the SASC was released. It's not clear whether the SASC version also includes the provision in the House version of the NDAA to try to make Selective Service registration 'automatic' or only the provision to expand the registration requirement (with which compliance is currently low) to young women as well as young men. A spokesperson for the SASC told The Hill today that the full text of the Senate version of the NDAA won't be released until sometime in July.

Floor amendments are still possible in the Senate before it approves its version of the NDAA. But as of now, it seems likely that competing bad proposals with respect to expansion and/or attempted enforcement through automation of Selective Service -- one from the Republican-majority House to try to make it automatic, and one from the Democratic-majority Senate to expand it to women -- will be included in the House and Senate versions of the NDAA and go to the eventual House-Senate conference committee to sort out in closed-door negotiations late this year, after the elections.

It's possible that either or both of these proposals were included as "bargaining chips" intended to be withdrawn in exchange for concessions on other issues during the conference negotiations. The conference committee could include either, neither, both, or some other compromise on Selective Service in its final package of compromises, which typically are voted on and approved "en bloc" without further amendments.

Either of these misguided proposals would be the most significant change to the Military Selective Service Act since 1980. There have been no hearings, debate, or recorded vote on either of these proposals, and there appear unlikely to be any. The decision will probably be made in secret by the House-Senate conference committee for the NDAA.




military

Playbook for a military draft

[I'm often asked, "Why should we care about draft registration if there isn't going to be a draft?" In the article below, which was first published earlier today on Antiwar.com, I look at what war planners say about why draft registration is an important weapon in the arsenal of military strategy, even if there isn't going to be a draft -- and what that says about why draft registration ought to be equally important to antiwar activists, even when an actual draft isn't active or likely.]


[Stages of mobilization for war. Image from CNAS report based on Department of Defense mobilization plan. Note the absence of a Congressional declaration of war at any stage up to and including total military mobilization.]

A new report released 18 June 2024 by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) provides a remarkably candid window into the flawed and dangerous thinking of military strategists who support continual "readiness" for an on-demand military draft, even while they claim -- perhaps truthfully -- not to prefer a draft, even as Plan B, but only as Plan F for "Fallback" in case of prolonged and total war. (Thanks to longtime anti-draft activist Eric Garris of Antiwar.com for bringing this report to my attention.)

The CNAS report is intended to show supporters of the current bipartisan mainstream U.S. foreign policy and military consensus why the U.S. should step up planning and preparation for a draft as a tool of deterrence. But for those outside that consensus who think current U.S. policy is already bellicose enough, especially those who assume that opposing draft registration and other steps toward readiness for a draft should be a low priority for antiwar activists because the U.S. will never again (or at least not soon) activate a draft, the CNAS report provides an important lesson in how preparedness for a draft is itself a tool of war, even in "peacetime".

The CNAS report shows how its authors want to use readiness for a draft, and the circumstances in which they think it should be used.

The fundamental argument of the CNAS report is that a "credible" capability to quickly activate a draft is an important deterrent, especially to other great-power military "peers" and potential adversaries.

As with nuclear weapons, to speak of readiness for a draft as a deterrent is another way to speak of preparation for a draft as a threat. As also with nuclear weapons, that threat is itself a weapon.

Preparation for a draft is used as a weapon when it is used to threaten escalating war to another level of death and destruction, even when that threat isn't carried out. The "credibility" of U.S. readiness to implement a draft -- stressed repeatedly in the CNAS report -- is relevant only to the use of that readiness for a draft as a threat.

Proponents of draft registration and readiness for a draft such as the authors of the CNAS report argue that if, and only if, the great-power enemies of the U.S. believe that we are able and willing to activate a draft, we can use that threat of draft-enabled rapid and total military escalation and total war as a tool of diplomatic and military policy.

Resistance to planning and preparation for a draft is thus a way to rein in those policies that are based on the ability to rush into total war, and the threat to do so.




military

Summer of the military draft: What the U.S. government and think tanks are planning and why

[Originally published by Responsible Statecraft, the journal of the Quincy Institute]

How did this suddenly become the summer of “the draft”?

There are a number of proposals in the annual defense policy bill (National Defense Authorization Act, NDAA) that deal with the subject. There is one to expand Selective Service registration to women. Another that would make Selective Service registration for American men "automatic."

Still another proposed amendment to the NDAA, which has also been introduced as a freestanding bill, S. 4881, would repeal the Military Selective Service Act entirely. Meanwhile, the Center for a New American Security just published an exhaustive blueprint for modernizing mobilization, including readiness to activate conscription.

All this talk has compelled “fact checkers” to insist that no, the U.S. government isn’t suddenly "laying the groundwork" for a draft.

But saying the U.S. isn’t preparing for a draft is like saying it isn’t preparing for nuclear war. Just as the Department of Defense is tasked with maintaining readiness to initiate nuclear strikes whenever the Commander-In-Chief so orders, the Selective Service System has the sole mission of maintaining readiness to hold a draft lottery within five days and start selecting draftees and sending out notices to report for induction whenever Congress and the President so order.

As such, there are currently ten thousand draft board members who have been appointed and trained to adjudicate claims for deferment or exemption. As recently as this month, states have been openly seeking volunteers to fill empty slots. And both the SSS and hawkish think-tanks have been war-gaming the government’s contingency plans to activate a draft.


[Timeline for a draft, counting from “Mobilization Day” (M=0), from SSS Agency Response Plan (ARP) Workshop (September 7, 2023)]

There’s room for argument about how likely it is that the U.S. would launch nuclear missiles or activate a draft. But there’s no question that it’s planning and preparing for both, as it has been for decades. It would seem that after years of atrophy, the government is stepping up its attention to military mobilization and readiness for a draft.

Maybe it’s time to ask whether more easy and efficient ways of tapping into human capital for war make it easier to get into one and whether it is in our best interest to do so.




military

Military draft sign-ups plunge as war fears rise

Fewer young Americans are willing to fight the government’s wars.

[Also published on Antiwar.com. Portions of this article were first published by Responsible Statecraft and are reprinted by permission.]

Of men in the U.S. who turned 18 in 2023, fewer than 40% signed up for the draft – down from more than 60% in 2020 before the start of the war in Ukraine.

This eye-popping and previously undisclosed admission, as well as other revelations equally damning to plans to increase readiness to activate a draft, was included in documents released recently by the Selective Service System (SSS) in response to a Freedom Of Information Act request.




military

Flight Job At Boeing - Military Programs Flight Operations Manager

Flight Job At Boeing Military Programs Flight Operations Manager




military

Tuberville softens on military holds and will pivot to 'woke' Biden nominees

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) signaled Thursday he may be ready to drop his nearly 10-month blockade of military promotions as soon as next week as many Senate Republicans have attempted to find an off-ramp for months, and patience is wearing thin.




military

Pentagon Chief Rejects Trump's Threat To Use Military To Quell Unrest

Updated at 7 p.m. ET In a move that possibly placed his job in peril, Defense Secretary Mark Esper publicly disagreed Wednesday with President Trump's threatened use of the 1807 Insurrection Act to quell widespread unrest over the death of George Floyd, a black man who died after a white Minneapolis police officer kneeled on his neck. "The option to use active-duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort, and only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now," Esper told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. "I do not support invoking the Insurrection Act." Esper added, "I've always believed and continue to believe that the National Guard is best suited for performing domestic support to civil authorities in these situations, in support of local law enforcement." The 1807 Insurrection Act authorizes a U.S. president to deploy the military in times of domestic emergencies. The law was updated in 2006 to include




military

Trump Says U.S. Will Let Turkey Launch Military Offensive In Syria, Prompting Outrage

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST: It is time to bring home U.S. troops from Syria. That was a tweet from the president this morning. It made many people think the president was acting on his longstanding goal of getting U.S. forces out of long-running wars in the Middle East. He also appeared to be clearing the way for Turkey to cross the border into northern Syria. But what has followed today has been confusion and criticism of the president, followed by more tweets from Trump, including one in which he threatened to destroy the economy of Turkey. NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre is here. Hi, Greg. GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hey, Mary Louise. KELLY: It feels like it might be a good idea to just back us up 24 hours or so. We know that President Trump had a phone call with President Erdogan of Turkey, and then all this unspooled from there. What happened? MYRE: Right. Well, these presidential phone calls with foreign leaders continue to be highly problematic. Trump spoke with the Turkish




military

Coronavirus Surge For U.S. Military On Okinawa Adds To Soured Relations There

Relations between the more than 25,000 U.S. military forces on Okinawa and that Japanese island's 1.5 million residents have long been strained over pollution, crime and overcrowding associated with the 31 U.S. military bases there. Now a new outbreak of COVID-19 cases among American service members stationed on Japan's southernmost territory is fraying things further. As of Tuesday, 100 new cases of COVID-19 have been detected in the past week at five U.S. bases on Okinawa, according to Japan's independent Kyodo News agency. Beyond those bases, where only three cases had earlier been confirmed, Okinawa has had a relatively low impact from the disease, reporting 148 infections and seven deaths. At a weekend news conference, Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki called the surge of coronavirus cases among U.S. military personnel "extremely regrettable," according to the Reuters news agency. "I can't help but have strong doubts about the U.S. military's measures to prevent infections," Reuters




military

Senator Lifts Hold On Military Promotions After Assurances On Impeachment Witness

Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., said Tuesday that she would lift a hold on more than 1,100 senior military promotions after the Department of Defense assured her that it did not block the promotion of Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman — a key witness in the impeachment inquiry of President Trump. Duckworth, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and combat veteran, put the hold on promotions earlier this month, demanding written confirmation from Defense Secretary Mike Esper that the former National Security Council aide had been recommended for advancement to full colonel. "Donald Trump's unprecedented efforts to further politicize our military by retaliating against Lt. Col. Vindman — for doing his patriotic duty of telling the truth under oath — are unconscionable," the senator said in a statement announcing that she would lift the hold. "I'm glad the Department of Defense was finally able to set the record straight that Vindman had earned and was set to receive a promotion to




military

Photos & Video: Military Aircraft Visit Bermuda

Four military aircraft have visited Bermuda over the past few days, stopping at the L.F Wade International Airport, with the HC-130Js operated by the United States Air Force. It is not unusual for military aircraft to make brief stops on the island for refueling or other purposes, and for our past coverage of military aircraft […]




military

Photos & Video: Military Aircraft Visit Bermuda

Military aircraft visited the island again this week, with the MC-130J stopping by the L.F. Wade International Airport this week. It is not unusual for military aircraft to make brief stops on the island for refueling or other purposes, and for our past coverage of military aircraft on the island, here. The Lockheed Martin website said, “The […]




military

Photos & Video: Military Aircraft Visit Bermuda

Several military aircraft — from both the United States Air Force and the Royal Air Force – recently visited the island touching down at LF Wade International Airport. For our past coverage of military aircraft on the island, click here. Related Stories Photos & Video: Various Aircraft Visit Bermuda Photos & Video: Military Aircraft Visit Bermuda Photos […]




military

Photos & Video: US & UK Military Aircraft Visit

Several military aircraft — from both the United States Navy and the Royal Air Force – recently visited the island, touching down at LF Wade International Airport. For our past coverage of military aircraft on the island, click here. Related Stories Photos/Video: Royal Air Force Land In Bermuda Photos & Video: Royal Canadian Air Force Visits Photos […]




military

Photos & Video: Military Aircraft Visit Bermuda

Three military aircraft visited the island this week, stopping at the L.F Wade International Airport. It is not unusual for military aircraft to make brief stops on the island for refueling or other purposes. To view all other coverage related to military aircraft, click here. Related Stories Photos & Video: Royal Air Force Visits Photos […]






military

A Marine Corps veteran expresses concerns for the military in a 2nd Trump presidency

Essayist Phil Klay says Trump tried to use the military to push his partisan agenda before, and may further erode norms around the military as he looks for those willing to "go with his whims."





military

'We are not military - why are we being hit?'

In the Lebanese city of Nabatieh, Orla Guerin meets hospital patients and medics vowing to stay despite Israeli strikes.




military

Runaway 'spy whale' fled Russian military training says marine scientist

Marine scientist uncovers the story behind Andruha's escape from Russian military training programme.




military

Military Judge Cancels Biden’s Attempt to Give Aid to Terror Masterminds of 9-11

A military judge has canceled the Biden administration’s attempt to hand a plea deal to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other terrorists who Biden wanted to give a lighter sentence. Biden Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had tried to make a plea deal with the terrorists that ran against their previous sentences by allowing them to […]

The post Military Judge Cancels Biden’s Attempt to Give Aid to Terror Masterminds of 9-11 appeared first on The Lid.





military

By Inventing Military Threats, Lukashenka Is Playing with Fire

20 August 2020

Keir Giles

Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
In a bid to reassert control in Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is trying to stir the worst fears of his supporters by playing the war card. But overplaying his hand could prove disastrous if it leads to confrontation with either Russia or NATO.

2020-08-20-Belarus-Protest-Election

A mass rally in Grodno, Belarus where factory workers went on strike in protest against the election results and actions of law enforcement officers. Photo by Viktor DrachevTASS via Getty Images.

Having failed to swiftly translate popular support into tangible political achievements, there are signs the protests against the fraudulent presidential election in Belarus may be losing momentum in the face of the state’s resilience and still-confident security and enforcement apparatus.

Attempts to blame the unrest on the West have focused on groups Lukashenka and Russia can both call enemies. And now Aliaksandr Lukashenka is not only inventing anti-Russian policies supposedly held by the opposition, such as suppressing the Russian language and closing the border with Russia, but also a supposed military threat from NATO.

Border movements

Increased military activity inside Belarus does give Lukashenka a wider range of options. Unscheduled activation of military units includes airspace defence practice with missiles and aircraft, electronic warfare (EW) units put on round-the-clock alert, and a number of infantry brigades preparing for live firing exercises.

Lukashenka is drawing attention to the north-west corner of Belarus, singling out the city of Grodno near the border with Poland and Lithuania as a supposed target for Western efforts at destabilization. Grodno is also the destination for an airborne brigade moving from the east to the west of the country and the focus of military exercises under way on the country’s western borders.

All this feeds Lukashenka’s narrative that Belarus is in danger from NATO and the West who are supposedly both stirring up the protests and seeking to exploit disorder - and that this danger extends to possible military clashes.

The Belarusian exercises are over the border from where NATO troops - including elements of the Light Dragoons, a British reconnaissance unit - have been in place in Poland as part of NATO's enhanced forward presence (eFP) since 2017. Pointing to NATO activity in Poland and Lithuania, Lukashenka said on Wednesday ‘we have to follow their movements and plans’ and that ‘they will answer for it if something happens’.

The danger is that having invented a tense situation in Grodno, Lukashenka may now need to be proved right. There may be staged incidents or ‘provocations’ against Belarus military forces, either supposedly instigated by protesters or even by NATO forces on the border - all aimed at bolstering the narrative that NATO, the EU, and the West in general are hostile to Belarus and that more drastic measures are necessary for protection.

Russia’s options still open

Although initial fears of a Russian move into Belarus have receded, Lukashenka’s complaints about NATO also bolster the case for Moscow to intervene. The military exercises fit the narrative that Belarus is under threat from the West - which is exactly the pretext Russia would need.

If this is believed in Moscow, where foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has already described events in Belarus as part of a ‘struggle for the post-Soviet space’, this makes a Russian intervention more likely. Moving forces away from their base near the border with Russia to the other end of the country near Poland and Lithuania also means any Russian entry into Belarus could go more smoothly, with fewer wild cards of possible Belarusian opposition to consider.

There are plenty of sensible, rational, logical reasons why a Russian military intervention in Belarus would be disastrous and counter-productive. But what seems sensible and rational in Europe and North America does not always carry weight in Moscow, which may see the situation completely differently and measure options by completely different standards.

One key area of doubt is the sympathies of the Belarus armed forces. Although some elements of the Belarusian army - particularly airborne and special forces - work closely with their Russian counterparts, more general suggestions that the Belarusian military is merely an extension of Russia’s and is not capable of taking decisions for itself are an over-simplification.

The Belarus armed forces do know that hosting Russian ground troops, airbases or air defence systems would fatally undermine the country’s hopes of avoiding being caught up in any confrontation between Russia and NATO.

And although the great majority of Belarusian officers are Russian-speaking and many have been trained and educated in Russia, there may be sufficient pride in national identity and resentment at heavy-handed treatment by Russia to lead to substantial obstruction of Russian initiatives.

The Belarus General Staff has already refused permission for a Russian aircraft carrying 155 personnel from the Rosgvardiya militarized security force and three tonnes of cargo ‘for the Belarusian interior ministry’ to land in Belarus. This could indicate not only tension between Russia and Belarus, but even between ministries within Belarus itself.

Like Russia, Lukashenka has plenty of options in reserve if his situation deteriorates further. Announcing a state of emergency would allow the Belarusian army to support the security forces in dealing with protests. If the army is on the move with their equipment they are better prepared to be brought into action if needed, but testing the loyalty of the armed forces could prove dangerous if the sympathies of army units turn out to lie more with civilians than with their oppressors from the interior ministry.

The military preparations against fictitious threats and a patiently-waiting Russia is a toxic mix and Belarus’s friends abroad must tread carefully. A key task for the European Union (EU) is to help the Belarusian people without providing a pretext for further violence and Russian intervention.

The right level of engagement needs to be carefully calibrated, avoiding disasters of strategic communication such as European Commissioner Thierry Breton being translated into English as saying Belarus is not part of Europe – with the lack of EU interest that that implies. Although the EU statement promising sanctions and offering funds received a mixed reception, at least it cannot be used by Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin as evidence that their warnings of a Western military threat are genuine.




military

Rage Against the Algorithm: the Risks of Overestimating Military Artificial Intelligence

27 August 2020

Yasmin Afina

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
Increasing dependency on artificial intelligence (AI) for military technologies is inevitable and efforts to develop these technologies to use in the battlefield is proceeding apace, however, developers and end-users must ensure the reliability of these technologies, writes Yasmin Afina.

GettyImages-112897149.jpg

F-16 SimuSphere HD flight simulator at Link Simulation in Arlington, Texas, US. Photo: Getty Images.

AI holds the potential to replace humans for tactical tasks in military operations beyond current applications such as navigation assistance. For example, in the US, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) recently held the final round of its AlphaDogfight Trials where an algorithm controlling a simulated F-16 fighter was pitted against an Air Force pilot in virtual aerial combat. The algorithm won by 5-0. So what does this mean for the future of military operations?

The agency’s deputy director remarked that these tools are now ‘ready for weapons systems designers to be in the toolbox’. At first glance, the dogfight shows that an AI-enabled air combat would provide tremendous military advantage including the lack of survival instincts inherent to humans, the ability to consistently operate with high acceleration stress beyond the limitations of the human body and high targeting precision.

The outcome of these trials, however, does not mean that this technology is ready for deployment in the battlefield. In fact, an array of considerations must be taken into account prior to their deployment and use – namely the ability to adapt in real-life combat situations, physical limitations and legal compliance.

Testing environment versus real-life applications

First, as with all technologies, the performance of an algorithm in its testing environment is bound to differ from real-life applications such as in the case of cluster munitions. For instance, Google Health developed an algorithm to help with diabetic retinopathy screening. While the algorithm’s accuracy rate in the lab was over 90 per cent, it did not perform well out of the lab because the algorithm was used to high-quality scans in its training, it rejected more than a fifth of the real-life scans which were deemed as being below the quality threshold required. As a result, the process ended up being as time-consuming and costly – if not more so – than traditional screening.

Similarly, virtual environments akin to the AlphaDogfight Trials do not reflect the extent of risks, hazards and unpredictability of real-life combat. In the dogfight exercise, for example, the algorithm had full situational awareness and was repeatedly trained to the rules, parameters and limitations of its operating environment. But, in a real-life dynamic and battlefield, the list of variables is long and will inevitably fluctuate: visibility may be poor, extreme weather could affect operations and the performance of aircraft and the behaviour and actions of adversaries will be unpredictable.

Every single eventuality would need to be programmed in line with the commander’s intent in an ever-changing situation or it would drastically affect the performance of algorithms including in target identification and firing precision.

Hardware limitations

Another consideration relates to the limitations of the hardware that AI systems depend on. Algorithms depend on hardware to operate equipment such as sensors and computer systems – each of which are constrained by physical limitations. These can be targeted by an adversary, for example, through electronic interference to disrupt the functioning of the computer systems which the algorithms are operating from.

Hardware may also be affected involuntarily. For instance, a ‘pilotless’ aircraft controlled by an algorithm can indeed undergo higher accelerations, and thus, higher g-force than the human body can endure. However, the aircraft in itself is also subject to physical limitations such as acceleration limits beyond which parts of the aircraft, such as its sensors, may be severely damaged which in turn affects the algorithm’s performance and, ultimately, mission success. It is critical that these physical limitations are factored into the equation when deploying these machines especially when they so heavily rely on sensors.

Legal compliance

Another major, and perhaps the greatest, consideration relates to the ability to rely on machines for legal compliance. The DARPA dogfight exclusively focused on the algorithm’s ability to successfully control the aircraft and counter the adversary, however, nothing indicates its ability to ensure that strikes remain within the boundaries of the law.

In an armed conflict, the deployment and use of such systems in the battlefield are not exempt from international humanitarian law (IHL) and most notably its customary principles of distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack. It would need to be able to differentiate between civilians, combatants and military objectives, calculate whether its attacks will be proportionate against the set military objective and live collateral damage estimates and take the necessary precautions to ensure the attacks remain within the boundaries of the law – including the ability to abort if necessary. This would also require the machine to have the ability to stay within the rules of engagement for that particular operation.

It is therefore critical to incorporate IHL considerations from the conception and throughout the development and testing phases of algorithms to ensure the machines are sufficiently reliable for legal compliance purposes.

It is also important that developers address the 'black box' issue whereby the algorithm’s calculations are so complex that it is impossible for humans to understand how it came to its results. It is not only necessary to address the algorithm’s opacity to improve the algorithm’s performance over time, it is also key for accountability and investigation purposes in cases of incidents and suspected violations of applicable laws.

Reliability, testing and experimentation

Algorithms are becoming increasingly powerful and there is no doubt that they will confer tremendous advantages to the military. Over-hype, however, must be avoided at the expense of the machine’s reliability on the technical front as well as for legal compliance purposes.

The testing and experimentation phases are key during which developers will have the ability to fine-tune the algorithms. Developers must, therefore, be held accountable for ensuring the reliability of machines by incorporating considerations pertaining to performance and accuracy, hardware limitations as well as legal compliance. This could help prevent incidents in real life that result from overestimating of the capabilities of AI in military operations. 




military

War Time: Temporality and the Decline of Western Military Power

War Time: Temporality and the Decline of Western Military Power Book dora.popova 22 February 2021

In War Time the Western way of war, its pace and timing, are discussed and analysed by experts who question the West’s ability to maintain its military superiority given the political and strategic failures of interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In War Time, war studies experts examine the trajectory of Western military power. They discuss conflicting perceptions of time anchored within Western political and military institutions, and the Western attachment to fast-paced warfare at the expense of longer-term political solutions.

Divided into three sections, the book covers ‘civic militarism’ and the trajectory of Western power, Western perceptions of time and the international normative order, and military operations and temporality. War Time explains why the West has been overwhelmingly powerful on the battlefield and yet strategically and politically weak as exemplified by the return of the Taliban and the hasty evacuation of troops and personnel from Afghanistan.

The book identifies policies that decision-makers must adopt to stave off the decline of Western military dominance.

This book is part of the Insights series.

 

Watch the event

A special event was held in March 2021 to mark the launch of the book. View the event here.

Praise for War Time

War Time is a provocative consideration of the many aspects of modern military power in politics and international affairs. Though the nature of war doesn’t change, this book is particularly relevant given the changing character of modern war as we see in the Caucasus, Ukraine, the Sahel, and the Indo-Pacific region. Essential reading for political leaders, diplomats, and strategic thinkers.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges, Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis; Commander, United States Army Europe, 2014–2017

About the editors

Sten Rynning is professor of war studies at the University of Southern Denmark.

Olivier Schmitt is professor with special responsibilities at the Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark, and currently director of research and studies at the French Institute for Higher National Defence Studies.

Amelie Theussen is assistant professor at the Center for War Studies, University of 
Southern Denmark.

Purchase




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